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Crude Spikes On Renewed Mid-East War Fears As Saudi Arabia Recalls Lebanon Citizens

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Paint is drying, so what is the best way to break the monotony? Why with renewed Iran war speculation of course. Sure enough, here comes Saudi Arabia to the rescue. From Reuters: "Saudi Arabia has ordered its citizens to leave Lebanon “immediately”, the state news agency reported in an SMS alert on Wednesday. “The Saudi Arabian embassy in Lebanon calls all Saudi citizens to leave Lebanon immediately,” the alert said, without elaborating." Making an imminent Iran attack far less likely, however, is an article in Bloomberg titled "Israel Plans Iran Strike; Citizens Say Government Serious." Of course anyone expecting Israel to launch a strike with every paper in the world blasting the above title as a headline may as well buy some Las Vegas 10,000 square foot haciendas because housing has "bottomed." For now however Brent is leaning on the side of caution, and is back to all time highs in EUR terms.

 

Brent in EUR and WTI (USD) are spiking intraday...

 

and Brent In Euros is now above the 2008 highs and nearing record highs...

 

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Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:08 | 2707178 Capitalist
Capitalist's picture

Cue the Margin Hiker-In-Chief in 3.. 2.. 1..

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:59 | 2707330 malikai
malikai's picture

Time to Release the SPR muppets!

EDIT: http://www.quantsig.net/img/com_wti.png

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 19:04 | 2708603 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

I know this story is as old as dirt......but we should note that several things appear to be different this time around that make me think we are about ready to the Mullah's a run for their money!!!

1) Israelis are lining up by the thousands everyday to get fitted and issued gas masks, if they didn't have them from before the lebanon war era!

2) US has 4 aircraft carrier battle groups and a marine naval battle group in a 300 square mile radius of Iran, this has not happened since the first gulf war I believe.

3) Election, Election, Election..nothing rallys people around the ol flag and Prez like a good war, with real danger and more importantly, nothing takes the news about a bad economy off the newswires like a real war, with real dangers!! think embedded reporters, 24-7!

4) Iran has been hardening its air defenses, with Russian and Chinese made systems at a warp speed! Also they have been increasingly hostile in the waters near the strait, even though its not being reported!

5) Saudi Arabia just recalled ALL ITS CITIZENS, from Lebanon. This is unprecidented and they have never done this before, even with all the war and conflict that has happened in the last decade over there!!

Here's how this is going to go down IMO.........the Israelis will strike without warning and the US military will say they didn't know! The Israelis will inflict some serious visual damage on the ground and also take some heavy loses, the US will wait until Iran attempts to respond and we will "be drawn into it"  Lebanon will light up the northern border with Israel and Hamas will attack from the South, the Syrian dictator Al Assad will be saved, because no one wants him gone anyway, and nothing units a Country like a common external enemy!!  Oil will go to 150-200 a barrel and Obama will open the SPR immediately, .............the rest will depend on how well everyone does on the battlefield, Russia will be in the game with the Iranians, and we will be backing the Israelis and indirectly Saudi Arabia!!   Should be scarey and stunning to watch at the same time!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:11 | 2707183 CClarity
CClarity's picture

"Germany orders citizens to leave Greece immediately" . . . but do vote for your favorite island while we ponder annexation, war, or abandonment.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:46 | 2707317 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

He's stating the problem.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 20:43 | 2708806 nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

Yes Jamie Dimon

The USA is a Free Fucking Country for the 1% to which you belong.

Dont forget you are fucking the other 99%.

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:12 | 2707197 nevadan
nevadan's picture

meanwhile....bonds continue to fall.

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:25 | 2707252 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

bonds should be falling. 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:29 | 2707269 nevadan
nevadan's picture

No kneejerk "flight to safety" in bonds makes me think oil is just an algo driven spike...

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:53 | 2707962 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Brent is reacting to this story:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-13/petrobras-output-drops-on-chevron-field-loss-corporate-brazil.html

and this story:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewhulbert/2012/08/13/opecs-new-heavyweight-iraq/

"Put all that together, and Iraq will struggle to nudge output towards 4mb/d over the next few years, let alone hitting 5, 6, or 7mb/d over the next decade. As for 12mb/d production targets by 2017 as the new ‘swing producer’, forget it."

IEA depends more or less entirely on Brazil and Iraq to provide enough oil for global growth for the next 5-20 years.  It clearly won't be there.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:37 | 2708146 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

People fail to realize that those off-shore fields die fast and hard.... There won't be any stripper wells in the deep water GOM.....

That being said, I think the recent price increase is not being driven by the Brazil and Iraq news.... Me thinks the pinch from the Iranian sanctions is revealing that no one has the capacity to replace that oil....

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 18:25 | 2708497 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The only reason I am not embracing the Iran sanction explanation is there is so much political campaign BS associated with all data relevant to it.

The recent number from Iran was 2.6 mbpd.  A year ago it was 3.5 mbpd.

This is only 900 Kbpd, but this assumes any numbers at all are believable.  Obama is probably looking at this situation and wondering if he should just grant every waiver request that exists, and then flood the market from the SPR.

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:16 | 2707208 surf0766
surf0766's picture

I would think their recall has more to do with Syria falling than Iran.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:29 | 2707262 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

 

 

"Israel will be obliterated by chemical, microbial and nuclear bombs, Iran is warning, but those weapons of mass destruction will be used first on Tel Aviv by Hezbollah and Islamic Jihadat the start of a decades-old Muslim dream of destroying the Jewish state.

An alarming commentary last week in Mashregh, the media outlet of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, confirmed that the Islamic regime not only has WMDs but has armed its terrorist proxies with them. Mashregh speaks for the regime.

It warned Israel that if the fighting in Syria does not stop, an all-out attack on the Jewish state will be launched and that at zero hour, Tel Aviv will be the first city to be destroyed."

 

 

 

 

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/aug/14/iran-admits-giving-wmds-to-terrorists/     

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:32 | 2707273 magpie
magpie's picture

It has more to do with the Iron Dome at Dimona.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:57 | 2707381 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

Well, the WASHINGTON TIMES (aka GOD) says so, so it must be true!

Uh huh....

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:59 | 2707393 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

Your rampant paranoid imagination is bullshit, Isreal will self destruct, their 300 someting armagedon secret nukes will blowup in their own fucking face. Good riddance war mongering assholes.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 18:32 | 2708511 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

I met a former nuclear physicist last week.  Really.  He told me the triggers on America's (and of course Israhell's) nukes  have a half life of (I forget exactly, IIR it was 15 years or some shit).  In any case, the bottom line is U.S. Nukes are slowly molding away in their silos and will soon become useless.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:33 | 2707529 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"we will settle the accounts from the attack on Bulgaria." Ehud Barak.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:17 | 2707757 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

Zionist Extremist Chamish Admits Bollyn is Right, Zionists did 9/11!!

 

 

 

 

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2012/08/15/zionist-extremist-chamish-admits-bollyn-is-right-zionists-did-911/   

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:29 | 2707270 Zwelgje
Zwelgje's picture

Indeed, war is coming (again) to Lebanon.

 

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:15 | 2707749 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

I sure hope we get good video coverage.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 17:43 | 2708373 QuietCorday
QuietCorday's picture

I know. I am really sick about it. The Lebanese don't deserve this crap over and over.

I travel to Lebanon a lot, and the people are great. I have had some of the most beautiful moments in my life in Beirut. And it has the best nightlife and cocktails within 3000 miles of the UK. :oD

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:17 | 2707215 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OK boys we need crude a bit higher so rattle them sabres again!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:29 | 2707261 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

There is a wolf coming.... the sky is falling... I will close GITMO... I have saved or created 40-million middle class jobs... I am ten feet tall... Israel is gona bomb Iran... I will cut the defecit in half.... I won't cum in your mouth...

I think we are becoming desensitized to liars.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:39 | 2707286 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

These two don't seem too hot & bothered about anything

~~~

Saudi king sits next to Iran's Ahmadinejad in goodwill gesture

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/14/us-saudi-iran-syria-summit-idUSBRE87D14H20120814

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:45 | 2707314 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Party party while the war sabres rattle to control markets! 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:56 | 2707375 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Never ends does it?

~~~

News from 10 YEARS AGO...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2002/nov/05/israel.iraq

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:16 | 2707415 One World Mafia
One World Mafia's picture

Put this into google images: Ahmadinejad abdullah

They gay or something?

Then google image: Bush Abdullah

Right on the lips.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:05 | 2707424 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

Were where the Japanese hours before they bombed Pearl Habor????
If you don't know, better ask somebody, history may not repeat, but it always mimics itself!!!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:17 | 2707220 Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

Cui bono?  

Is this merely cover for more money printing?  All part of the scheme to help re-elect Obama as a war-time president?  Trying to show U.S. citizens once and for all that our dependence on foreign oil is hampering our economy and that more Solyndras need to be invested in?

Stay tuned.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:29 | 2707266 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

agree. then when the printer in chief renews his Kinkos account they just blame it on the mid east.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 20:47 | 2708849 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

 

 

 

"All part of the scheme to help re-elect Obama as a war-time president?"

 

Worked for the Bush II puppet didn't it...why not the Obama puppet.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:19 | 2707224 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Oil is completing a wave 2 correction.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/spot-wti-oil-daily-august-01-2012/

 

Wave 3 down should follow.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:21 | 2707239 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

BULLISH!!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:22 | 2707243 magpie
magpie's picture

...this is not the Free Syrian Army you are looking for.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:39 | 2708154 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Neither are those drones...

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:26 | 2707254 Azwethinkweiz
Azwethinkweiz's picture

It's like waiting to watch a movie and sitting through shitty trailer after shitty trailer. Meanwhile, everytime I goto the concession stand, they raise the price of popcorn by a quarter. Just get the fucking show started already.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:29 | 2707267 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

The Saudis do not realise it yet, but in a few short years they will be the next big one on the American sh*t list - hit list.

All the Americans need to do is light up that Saudi Shia minority ... that happens to live around where many of the oil wells are ... and blast their sufferings in the global media

And things are already pretty well lit up ... Good article on the brewing rebellion against the mediaeval Saudi monarchy in Asia Times Online today

The Saudis are shooting demonstrators dead with live rounds, but given they are momentary USA and petrodollar 'allies' there are no Hillary Clinton demands for regime change at the moment ... while the Saudis help fund the US - CIA game in Syria ... the Saudis certainly have no right to complain when the US game targets them ...

From the article:

« Allegations that a cleric who is an outspoken critic of the Saudi Arabian royal family has been tortured in detention are fueling unrest. While the state met protests in the east of the country with a customary brutal response, the mood of the Saudi Muslim minority suggests demonstrators will not be forced into submission without a fight. »

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NH16Ak01.html

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:41 | 2707297 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Poppy Bush sez no touchy touchy... (That is ~ until his borrowed time runs out)...

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:38 | 2707554 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Bingo.

No need to close the Straits of Hormuz when you can blow up the oil terminals at the other end of the Gulf.

The kinetic action starts the first dark phase of the moon after the election in November.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:34 | 2707276 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

Sorry. All Saudi citizens in Lebanon have expatriated to Iran.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:38 | 2707284 JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

Time for Barry to "release" 80 million barrels into the market to "help consumers" (aka, so JPM can grab most of it like last time).

In any case, the surest way for Barry to lose in November is for gas prices to soar. It'll be interesting.

 

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:41 | 2707300 surf0766
surf0766's picture

He wants gas prices to rise so everyone buys a volt from the outsourcing GM.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:43 | 2707304 905ozs
905ozs's picture

AFTER 3 WEEKS OF TRYING & 67 PHONECALLS, BINGO!!!
I GOT AN EMAIL (direct!) TO THE SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENT...I AWAIT HIS REPLY...

Mr President, Sir,
Thank you for taking my email.

Fiat $ will be dead within 3 years as a mathematical surety as I am certain you know.

This assumes a cataclysm to world food supply, unprecedented military global conflict and unprecedented civil unrest in the West particularly and worldwide.

Until a new system of exchange is established there is vacuum of chaos. I am certain You and your advisors are critically aware of this.

My humble question is;
in South Africa, with Our constitutional inalienable rights, including security for all & the wish to thrive peacefully. 

How are You planning to deal with the dying empire of $/USA & it's military might & it's death throws, which may lead to a true nightmare for all, all the time knowing Rothschild Inc have preplanned this outcome in pursuit of a global currency, they ultimately control. A global serfdom.

Best Regards
Oz's
Antminuk@hotmail.com
0723663030 local
00(27) 72 366 3030 international

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:57 | 2707379 aerojet
aerojet's picture

You're probably full of bs, but just in case, it would be really embarassing to send that e-mail to anyone in a position of power!  You misspelled "throes." 

 

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:46 | 2707315 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Time for traders to get WTI oil to new highs.

People around here are used to $4.25/gallon gas.

No big deal to go to $6/gallon gas.

It should also hep Bernanke and the Fed's huge inflation plan.

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:47 | 2707319 FranSix
FranSix's picture

Saudi Arabia has its banker royal family hoarding oil to protect.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:33 | 2707531 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

Audit the fed?, audit Ghawar!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:51 | 2707346 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

In time, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain are toast, their shit will hit the fan just like Syria today. Good riddance!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:52 | 2707351 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

One of the ad spaces on my page says "Support Israel Now!  Get your US Israel Lapel Pin Here".   LMAO!!!!

The data mining is not very accurate in my case...they obviously don't know me very well....

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:57 | 2707370 Ima anal sphincter
Ima anal sphincter's picture

I was unfortunate enough last night to walk in a room with Leno on. He was interviewing a wrestler who had won a gold metal. Apparently, this gentleman had beaten an Iranian in the last bout. Leno asked the question "so how does it feel to know that you beat a man from Iran. You-know.......A MAN FROM A COUNTRY WHO IS AN ENEMY OF OURS......

Fuck You Leno. Did it ever occur to your ass that Iran hasn't dicked with ANYONE if over 200 years.

We get hit with this shit from ALL angles.

These assholes WILL start another war. Millions will die. For what???????

If there is ever a spring-back from "The People", I hope it is complete from top to bottom with ALL these PUKES.

Dispose of them and make shitting on their graves a patriotic duty.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:59 | 2707390 aerojet
aerojet's picture

Leno is definitely a part of the propaganda machine.  He used to have that one comedian, Dennis Miller, I think, on there all the time spewing Bush Administration horseshit.  What a useful idiot that guy turned out to be!

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:02 | 2707412 Ima anal sphincter
Ima anal sphincter's picture

You are correct. +1000

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:19 | 2707771 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

WTF watches Leno? 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:57 | 2707383 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

GReat work BernANK and Drugie.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 13:57 | 2707384 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

GReat work BernANK and Drugie.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:01 | 2707408 Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

This is what happens when you print too much money. Note that oil is reaching its euro-record, while it is still way off its dollar record set in 2008. The ECB has expanded its balance sheet more than the Fed has. These high prices are not a coincidence but rather the unintended consequences of "believe me, it will be enough."

http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2012/08/09/oil-price-fundamentals/

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:28 | 2707476 JR
JR's picture

Always follow the money and who pays.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:21 | 2707484 RougeUnderwriter
RougeUnderwriter's picture

Yawn

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:21 | 2707485 RougeUnderwriter
RougeUnderwriter's picture

Yawn

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 18:44 | 2708547 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Are you sleepy there, little sheeple?

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:27 | 2707507 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Check out the correlation btwn oil price and France's trade balance. As oil back at peak level so is France's trade deficit. Ooops, another tiny problem for the new big govt-borrow and spend-communists at charge.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 14:47 | 2707587 bookofrao
bookofrao's picture

TIP ETF ..

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:01 | 2707659 FiatFapper
FiatFapper's picture

All CAD pairs have been moving since monday, so 'they' knew this days ago.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:05 | 2707694 midtowng
midtowng's picture

Israel may attack Iran, but Iran is NOT going to attack Israel. No way.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:08 | 2707715 Meatballs
Meatballs's picture

Of course anyone expecting Israel to launch a strike with every paper in the world blasting the above title as a headline may as well buy some Las Vegas 10,000 square foot haciendas because housing has "bottomed.

I think you underestimate Bibi's nuttiness and that the Rothchild's probably prefer Mittens, therefore, Obama in a box suits them just fine...along with the war profits to be had. I guess we'll know inside of 12 weeks.

http://www.alternet.org/world/get-ready-catastrophic-war-israel-likely-strike-iran-november-elections?page=0%2C0

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:22 | 2707793 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Reagan didn't attack Iran, Romney won't attack Iran.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 15:32 | 2707843 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Will someone PLEASE kick someone in the nutz for cripes sakes.  I'm too old or I'd do it.

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:18 | 2708071 Luffk73
Luffk73's picture

New moon is August 17th.  Ideal time for a military strike.

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:47 | 2708182 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Eid al Fitr is the 18th in the ME

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 16:31 | 2708117 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Do you think that oil sanctions on Iran have anything to do with this?

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 18:01 | 2708431 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Oil mongers sucking the money out of the peasants wallets by manipulation of the news, screaming 911! 911! OMFG !

FEAR works every time.

 

Wed, 08/15/2012 - 20:20 | 2708788 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Don't worry, the central banks will provide "liquidity" in case of need.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!