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Crude Surges On News Europe Agrees To Ban Iran Oil Imports
As if the situation in the Gulf was not enough on edge, here comes Europe with news, via Reuters, that EU governments have reached a deal to ban Iranian oil imports. The only thing pending is the determination of the starting date and other details. The result, as expected, is another leg up in crude. Sooner or later, this relentless rise higher will spill through to the pump, which according to the Michigan Bizarro confidence indicator will sent consumer optimism to historic levels. And now, the escalation hot grenade is back in Iran's court. Expect more missiles to be fired into the water and more rhetoric about Straits of Hormuz closure in 5...4...3...
From Reuters:
European Union governments have reached a preliminary agreement to ban imports of Iranian crude to the EU but have yet to decide when such an embargo would be put in place, EU diplomats said on Wednesday.
Diplomats said that EU envoys held talks on the issue in the last days of December and that any objections to the idea, notably from Greece, were dropped.
"A lot of progress has been made," one EU diplomat said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "The principle of an oil embargo is agreed. It is not being debated anymore."
And the response:
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in name only. this is zionist peepee they are sucking.....foreplay for a good ass raping.
Clearly $5 a gallon gas is pro growth.........duh.
What was the volume reduction in oil to the U.S. during the "Oil Embargo" of the 70's? Who profited from that little adventure? Could an embargo on Iran create an "Oil Bubble"? Why, oh why, would any ethical, morally benevolent, individual ever create a bubble. After all, we're only talking about peoples lives here. No one has ever created a false bubble in the past, right? No one would ever kill people for profit, let alone profit from someone elses misfortune? Would they?
Saudi Arabia and Angola, along with Iran are China's top three suppliers. Market logic would dictate that China would buy more from Iran, freeing up Saudi and Angolan supply for the US and EU.
Wouldn't it be funny if....China just left the Iranian supply as a reserve and kept buying their normal share of Saudi and Angolan?
LOL===ow.
Yes, China will of course remain diversified.
Bear Trap, bitchez....
/sarc
Hmmmm...Wright Patterson AFB just went on alert this morning?
Wright Prat is our main Transport for Stratgeic air assets such as teh C5, C17 and so on I think. I think also refueling too along with humping freight.
Our local C130 base have gone quiet in the skies overhead. I know nothing. (As sgt Klunk)
The real key I think is when Commerical air is quietly pulled from Passenger Civilian service and seats taken out to ship freight.
You can bet Mountain Home AFB has already been rolling out the USAF Combat assets by now according to a specific matrix. Remember we are a Nation that needs global agility to fight within hours.
I don't see point of sanctions. It shoots the west in their own foot. Iran will just sell to the rest of the world and then end up developing new connections and may be happy to cut off the wests supply. If one of our other suppliers get cut, then we lose hard as Iran s will be gone too. Then we are in real trouble. Then west had reason to invade. This is going to get bad.
No we are not going to invade as in putting marines and later Army into Iran proper. We never have enough for such a operation. But overfly and execute strikes? Sure.
The thing is, some Iranians will climb into whatever planes left flyable and try to defend as they should.
And that's the point as then Iran can take-out oil loading terminals, and close the strait, for many months, if the US tries to stop the trade with East Asia and Iran, or collapses Asian banks via a black-ban on them for trading with Iran.
Then all East Asians will go totally apeshit about the US behaviour and incitement, as well.
Very recently the US has been very busy in the region trying to get countries especially in ASEAN, to play along with a US Alliance strategy of cutting off oil to China in the event of China using its military to enforce maritime territorial claims or EEZ claims, in east Asia.
So the US is set to blow its strategic foot off in numerous inter-related ways here.
Here again the US is relying on public and governmental fear and on propaganda concerning China's military power and its claims, in order to corale increasingly unwilling support for US action against Iran.
The US will try to force the issue via cutting supplies of parts and spares for Jet fighters and helicopters and radar systems, and missile bits, etc.
That's the usual pattern of how the US gains allied 'consent', else it blackmails and bribes ... or all three combined.
Mean reversion bitchezz
http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2012/01/04/is-this-new-worlds-cheapest-ca...
"Lets freeze our own people so we can teach the Iranians a lesson."
Is that their strategy?
This is an analysis included on a blog I read written by a former navy intelligence guy. I don't know if I agree with his final conclusions, but we will soon see:
(Text NOT in quotes is the blog author's commentary. Text inside quotes is from the cited article.)
NEWS BRIEF: "After Iran threatens US carrier, bluff will probably be called", Christian Science Monitor, January 3, 2012
"The bellicose rhetoric from Iran keeps getting well, more bellicose, as new US sanctions targeting the country's central bank touched off panic in the Islamic Republic's currency market. The simmering dispute over Iran's nuclear program has threatened to boil over in recent weeks, with Iran directing its threats at the freedom of the seas off its coast, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping lane for much of the oil produced in the Persian Gulf.
"The latest came from Army boss Ataollah Salehi. He issued a fairly direct threat today to the US Navy, which has readied itself to patrol the Strait of Hormuz since Iranian officials began declaring they have the power to close the strait. 'I advise, recommend and warn them over the return of this carrier to the Persian Gulf because we are not in the habit of warning more than once', he said."
The sad fact is that Russia has supplied Iran with its most sophisticated supersonic anti-ship missile, designated the SS-N-22 Moskit cruise missile, and NATO codenamed 'Sunburn'. The Iranian version is called the "Mehrab".
The SS-N-22 is considered the most lethal anti-ship missile in the world, and flies at over 2.5 times the speed of sound only a few feet from the surface of the water. [This speed amounts to almost 1,700 miles per hour, or 28 miles per minute].
"Fisher reported that the SS-N-22 may be capable of a dive speed of Mach 4.5 that would help it evade U.S. naval defenses. The Sunburn anti-ship missile is perhaps the most lethal anti-ship missile in the world," wrote Fisher in a review of the Chinese navy. The Sunburn combines a Mach 2.5 speed with a very low-level flight pattern that uses violent end maneuvers to throw off defenses. After detecting the Moskit, the U.S. Navy Phalanx point defense system may have only 2.5 seconds to calculate a fire solution -- not enough time before the devastating impact of a 750-lb. warhead."
This missile has a range of 300 miles, which means that it can close the Strait of Hormuz. The Sunburn can even be equipped with a nuclear warhead! Listen again to the frightening capability of this Sunburn missile.
"Each warhead is six times more powerful than the atomic bomb used on Hiroshima,' said Triplett. 'The new missiles are designed specifically to destroy American carriers and Aegis cruisers with a single nuclear blast'."
After some bellicose rhetoric, the Obama Administration will probably quietly forget the entire affair. President George Bush repeatedly used this tactic; he would threaten Iran and move naval carrier groups off shore, but then quietly call them home a few weeks later.
So the Phalanx will not have enough quick draw and the ship will be showered with damage or direct hit.
The SeaRam or it's eariler version Rolling airframe missiles are very good units, but 9 kilometers to target means that the computer in the Battle CiC has to schedule the missile to meet the Sunburn in a few seconds.
I think that would make it a detection range of about... 30 km (45 seconds or so maybe?) and launch at about 20 km to intercept.
It would be over in about 15 seconds or less one way or the other.
We are going to need a way to detect these things OTH before they get ranged. And I think the Ageis and Hawkeyes have what it takes to get it done.
We can probably try to put up some kind of picket fence between the task force and launchers, however the water is only 21 miles wide and the missiles can fly 300 so....
Yea the Sunburn is a very dangerous weapon indeed.
Many westerners simply don't realise or simply can't conceive that the Russians have been making the very best multi-layered SAM defence system for the last five decades. Their early SA-2 SAM system took out a very high-altitude U2 spy plane (i.e. photo recon mission to develop a target list for a massive USAF and USN air attack ... like what that RQ-170 was doing in Iran last month) immediately prior to the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.
In fact that SAM hit on the U2 alone was a major escalation and technical wake-up call, for the USA, and it really pushed the whole thing to the brink of global nuclear war. The USA knew the Russians were a match, if not better, in that area.
Then there was Vietnam, where Russian SAMs tore the arse out of USN and USAF squadrons. The Russian SAMs were capable of taking down basically every aircraft the US could field, and did so regularly. Nothing was safe.
Then there was the massive impact of SAMs and radar-guided AAA on Israeli aircraft in the 1967 and 1973 Arab-Israeli wars, and they were really clobbered by the early-gen Russian SAM and AAA systems.
And there was the F-117A incident ... ... which should have been another clue, but denial and hubris are stronger than logic.
--
Newer Russian SAMs are demonstrably outstanding performers and are easily as good or significantly better than anything the US or NATO has, including THAAD, PAC3, SM2 SM3 and SM6 systems. Russian systems are far more mobile, more numerous, more flexible, and longer-ranged.
Russian Naval SAMs and AAA systems are just a deadly, if not more so.
And all means the Russians know exactly what it takes to defeat the defences of a USN ship, with missiles.
The SS-N-22 is the result of this knowledge, as to what a ship-based SAM defence can and can not do, against such missiles. The SS-N-22 was thus specifically designed to kill USN DDGs and CNVs, despite their advanced robotic Aegis VLS missile defence umbrella and network. In a properly constructed high-intensity attack, in the Gulf and Straits, there's a high-likelihood of the SS-N-22 getting hit.
Any ship hit with one of these missiles, even if it doesn't sink, it's in big trouble, because even one hit means you will most likely be a sitting duck, as not much on board will still working, let alone allow a missile defence network to operate, so the ship is then relying on the sensor and comms umbrella and the VLS missile racks on the other ships.
i.e. once the network starts to take hits it will degrade in capability exponentially, so most of the effort goes into making sure those first hits don't occur.
And that is what this missile is designed to achieve--a fleet wide missile defence umbrella failure that leaves a dozen large ships almost defenceless. Then the real cruise-missile and ballistic missile attack takes place--not much will survive that.
Phalanx and associated short-range missiles will not be able to keep up with the waves of decoys and actual missiles.
Any CIWS system that fires rounds as fast as that ... runs out of rounds very fast.
You're still within sight of the Iranian mainland.
Would Barry go down with the ship?
Nah, that spineless half-arsed mega-sook won't take responsibility for anything he touches-off here.
People are skeptical of the Euros when the lie about their debt, the same peeps believe the Euros when they lie about petroleum.
Euros get pious and whine about Iranian nukes and declare they will not buy Iranian oil. The oil is sold to China, Indonesian, Kuwaiti, UAE and Nigerian crude is shipped to the Euros instead. This has been going on for decades. This is how the Israelis wind up w/ Iranian crude.
The exceptions to Euro-nonsense are Greece, Portugal, etc. They don't give a fuck what the Eurocrats pretend since they have but one foot in the eurozone, anyway. They will continue to 'buy' Iranian crude (b/c the Iranians extend to them credit). Nobody in Europe cares about the Greeks and Portuguese anyway, they are LOSERS!
All the EU nations are using less, they are broke and cannot afford petroleum: higher prices have bankrupted them.
BTW, the Brent crude is about the same price it has been over the past three or four months $110/barrel. If price can be pushed by hook or crook to April high of $128 look for an immediate crash: broke!
Broke.
We'll see how long this lasts, or even if it gets off the ground. The history of trade restrictions is that the terms are violated as quickly as they are implemented. Remember that nations agreeing on anything start in mistrust. They end up in dissolution. The current Euro crisis proves that.
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/
Nice move, Eurotards. Time for the genital cuff.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ed3jRJr5IGQ
Goldman Sachs, Advisors.
That's one hell of a big surge, my friends.
wasn't it just yesterday the white house, the pentgram and the state department said "no war with Iran?"
guess it's kind of like when your boss comes to you and says "don't worry about lay offs, your job is secure" you know beyond a shadow of a doubt at that point you damn well better start hitting the wanted adds.
I think this was the point of withdrawing from Iraq and replacing regular military with contractors, we can't afford any more than two ground wars at a time, so the US had to free up resources and assets for Iran.
the us went into an Iraq that was controlled by a strongman dictator who was, no doubt, not a nice guy but no threat to the US regardless of how badly Rick Santorum wants to everybody to believe he was the evil Islamic re-incarnation of Hitler. now NATO leaves the country in worse shape than when they showed up, in chaos, fragmented and poorer in every measurable way.
Democracy exported, mission accomplished right?
wash, rinse, repeat... on to Iran.
I love my country, I wouldn't want to be anywhere else, but I absolutely despise what we are becoming, what our public officials do in our name in the interest of securing the homeland, it's all just a masters of the universe game to these sociopaths paid for with our money and our blood.
that's why when I here people so passionately debate the red vs blue 2012 presidential team death match it makes me both sick and sad. he's just one gear in the machine, what does it matter who mans the front desk? none of the DC critters work for us anyways, if that hasn't been made painfully obvious by now, then the public will be doomed to repeating the same pointless exercise in hope and change futility every time we hit the poles. people need to get past the idea that DC can, or is even interested in, changing anything for the betterment of us average Americans, they're not boy scouts and they don't give a shit about the serfs regardless of what banner their camp is under.
there is no benefit for the average American in going to war with Iran, it doesn't make us safer, it doesn't enhance personal or economic freedom, it doesn't make the world a better place and it won't create new middle class, real wealth producing jobs.
yeah I know, evil, scary Muslims who hate us for our freedoms, our prosperity blah, blah, blah...
and what freedoms do they hate us for halving again exactly? what prosperity?
ahh yes, the freedom to sing up for food stamps because the only job available pays $10 per hour which is not quite enough prosperity to pay the rent and eat.
so long as the the public remains happy playing in the sandbox that Washington and the corporate media has so lovingly set up for them there will be no restoration of America.
as the election season televised pre-game matches continue to dominate mind space & commentary, worth repeating:
For the traders out there, this article is all wrong, and to see it you must chart uco, with a speed line, and it helps to dp so weekly, daility etc. Sorry no way to post graphich, but you can see the rapid hft move in the early morning. happens in only a few minutes.
the open is lower. but the hft is programmed to bring the market to a certain point. instead of the sell it buys, (no problem with buy on the dip). in "just minites 2 mintues it ramps up uco from 43.94 up to 45.00. where is the exact top of the speed line that I hade started monty ago, and reevaluated. with a new one after the dip no matter where you draw these, each speed line the top is always the same, and the top is the top. (always). now we are down to almost the low of the day. it may play here for a day or two, but it always drops, where I am not sure, I don't knw if the old speed line will be maintained on the new one used. the algos always try to force the market back to the old speed line, the path is different, but the top is always the same. !!
when you see this rapid ramp, to exactly this line (seen thousands of time) it's always a bail signal. lots of times on tbt, tlt, uco, sco, eev, sds,
don't you ever wonder when we have that slightly lower op, we go higher, then finish much lower. Because that is the spot the hft has determined is the top of the day.
Notice how when you hit a new weekly high you almost alwayws have a sell off, because the sheep sell ther shorts with a new higher weekly high. this also triggers buy orders, and the hft sells.
I don't know if this will work, It's my chart from my charting site. you need. microsoft silverlight. Please pplay with the time frames.
david has sent you a Stock Chart from FreeStockCharts.com. Click below to view it.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=34e810bc-c879-4e01-a71b-a4fef1989637
thye reality is that who ever is running the hft show has it goes where they want. remember goldman admitted they had a program to manipulate the market. this is exaclty the thing. blue, green speed lines, if youa re anal you can break these down into smaller and smaller unites for day trading, etc.
I heard five years ago that Iran only had ten years worth of oil left. If that's true then it's all a bunch of crap for nothing.
So much energy in the ground around the world and someone wants to blow it all for one diminished pool.
Bring on ultra gas and food prices. We will get this revolution over with sooner than later.
It's not the most trustworthy source but from the CIA World Factbook, a mix of 2010/2011 statistics:
Iran
Oil Reserves: 137,000,000,000 Billion Barrels
Oil Production: 4,252,000 Billion Barrels per day
If my arithmetic is correct then that's 88 years of production left.
check.
I must have been listening to a PeakOlier.
No, you forgot about the exports and rising internal demand.....
http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/output_en/Exports_BP_2011_oil_bbl_IR_MZM_NONE_auto_M.png
At some point Iran has no oil left to *export* and current trends say that is about 10-20 years IIRC...
Smiler... the 137 billion is likely overstated (see the OPEC reserve revisions of the 1980s)....
Actually Iran will more likely produce an average of ~1 mmbpd for ~250 years....
Yes, very good points. I thought that little sum was a bit too easy!
Reuters is no place to go for objective news on this subject. For a European view, European sites would be better. Al Jazeera would be much better. We see the North American view all the time. Besides, Reuters is facing backruptcy, hence it's disposition on credit in general.
Since everyone has a worthless speculation, I shall add mine.
Russia, China, Iran, India, Pakistan and a few minor unmentionables have already agreed a 'force de frappe' response to any attack against any of them. The easy way to tell if I'm wrong is this: if Iran is attacked and a prolonged conflict occurs anywhere, we can be assured the whole 'nation' thing is a lie and merely a front for an organised ruling elite. oops. i sound wrong already. But if I'm not, here's what happens
Scenario 1: US or Israel or buttfuck Kingdom sends nasty doo-doo into Iran and blows something up. Force de Frappe response : 30 cities in USA, 30 in Europe including Rome; CoL, Buckinghamshire, Birmingham, Newcastle in U.K. all glow in the dark. The shitty little country is rendered 'unarable' (pun intended). 2 US Carrier groups reduced to melting sinking wrecks. Logic? simple: western empire rapists can't be allowed to fuck everyone up, so it's worth risking lights out for everyone because negotiating with ukusa is pointless, as history shows. We;re all fucked in the long run, but it's better to have to scrape out a living like everyone else than be a cubicle slave.
Scenario 2: Aforementioned suspects sends nasty doo-doo into Iran/Russia/China and blows something up. Force de Frappe response: 80% of western satellite comms disabled. fishing trawlers everywhere accidentally sever intl. comms cables. Entire Mid-East oil extraction infrastructure disabled by targeted accidents. Strange Air 'collisions' near Heathrow, RFK, RR, O'Hare, LAX, Orly, CdG, Frankfurt, Berlin. oops. Strange shipping accidents globally. (Rena was a showpiece) china/russia/iran phone the smooth talking nigger and say "checkmate". skinny ghetto meth head flips out and is shot by a general for the sake of the entire globe. Things take a while to recover.
Likely Scenario: blah blah blah oil price up blah blah oil price down blah blah threats blah blah blah nag nag nag posture posture evil axis whine whine stocks up whine whine stocks down. <yawn>. Maybe my dealer will come through? in any case, I buy a new macbook cos this old clunker needs replacing. And a decade of natural disasters.
Happy new year, everyone.
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