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Dallas Fed Beats On Hope Alone As Prices Paid Jump Most In 19 Months
Following last month's plunge in the Dallas Fed Manufacturing data (which was its biggest miss in 14 months and lowest print in 10 months), today's -1.6 print was the biggest jump in 7 months. From last month's -13.2, against an expectation of -7 this month, the -1.6 'beat' was very 'impressive' though obviously still negative. Critically though, once again, much of the rise in the index is predicated on the hope-section of the survey as while current activity indices such as production, new orders, and growth rates fell (and inventories rose), their corresponding future expectation indices all rose (even though expectations of the general activity index were mixed). Notably, the Prices Paid index jumped the most in 19 months. Once again it appears that good is bad, bad is better, but terrible is awesome; as the market's entirely lost discounting mechanism has no idea what to do with this flashing red headline.
Dallas Fed beat...
on hope alone...
helped by the biggest jump in Prices Paid in 19 months...
Chart: Bloomberg
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...and that is the best region (oil and gas)...
"Hope Alone" isn't that a new movie about Obummer in the WH?
The "market" has not been a vehicle for true price discovery since the 70's.
The "market" has the memory span of a goldfish.
You are offending the goldfish ...
(sorry, I could not resist)
Hope is the number one, really only, investment strategy these days. Look at the response to earnings disappointments from AMZN, AAPL, CRM, all well up from the disappointment. And today, in the retail sector, look at TIF.
Hope is a good investment strategy it seems when it can be funded with free Benny Bux. Shambolic.
We all know the drill...less worstest is bullish.
along with the vix they should have the B.S. index or the fubar index along with the hope index.
Your suggested index additions already exist. You can trade B.S. Furbar and Hope by simply buying SPY. This broadest index measure has already priced in all of these things...and the proof is in just how stupid this index trades each and every time some desperate banker speaks publicly.
...and as if the S&P heard me, it just rose 7 points in 30 minutes. The move was neither technical nor fundamental [in this case there being NO news]. It simply rose because it could, and owing to the desperate zombie banks that are currently bloated with equities that have been put back to them almost every single week for the last two years as average Joe does nothing but sell.
It is all pathetic...tragic even...that the market is no longer a market, but instead simply a measure of the will of those known as the financial services status quo, whom daily pervert the market instrument towards their own ends...that of holding onto power.
More banker pink slips, please.
"hope"...it's what's for dinner.
The robots had it priced in before it came out.
So Dallas Fed beat expectations because of commodity pricing?
How stupid.
Hope is a strategy. Ask "professional investors".
The inventory numbers are staggering. Up 14.7% and materials up 11.9%. Prices paid for materials is shooting up faster than the price that finished goods can be sold. Delivery times are dropping back massively.
This report is not good at all. In fact it is more than terrible.
Manufactures are sitting on massive loads of inventory they can't sell and the prices they need to pay to manufacture more goods is skyrocketing. If they can't sell old inventory, they can't generate the cashflow to purchase materials to build products to fulfill new orders.
IN other words they are royally screwed. Wages were also cut way back.
Wall Street doesn't understand manufacturing principals or anything resembling actual business anymore. The trades are made on headlines and nothing else. I don't think a single trader could run a business, which is why real business is failing everywhere. A MBA is a degree in bullshit stock scamming, not running a successful corporation.
EVERYTHING IS BULLISH!!!! Amazon and Apple to new highs!!!!
Classic. The underlying numbers like new factory orders and capacity utilization fell, but optimism increased. Albeit to a negative number.
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/08/27/dallas-fed-index-rises-from-13-2-to-1-6-but-factory-orders-and-capacity-utilization-fell/
Numbers are meaningless when the estimated "Future" values are added into the equation.
All they have to do is crank up the anticipated numbers and shazaam! it's positive.
Shipments -10%
Inventories of finished goods +15%
Nothing else to say..........
Hurry up Samsung, 4B coming soon.
Cheer up lads. BTFD, kick back, relax and let the profits flow.......Draghi & Ben have got your back.
Gee, what causes this?
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And it's not just a change bank behaviour that's the underlaying problem there. People have changed behaviour, and how are you going to induce savers to spend and ALSO borrow?
Give them a thingamajig handout?
Yeah, that'll change things ... NOT.
Chipmunks do it before winter.
But humans may be better off not storing their acorns with banksters who steal acorns.
Ignorant Algos that have not learned to read!
Sooo..when I'm selling 10% less crab and my tanks are over filled aaannnd the price is rising cutting father into any profits, I should rejoice. Ahh so thats where I went wrong..
Prices are going up here in LA too. A Lot. Parking for Spring semester was $20 now for Fall Semester it is $85 because of the DHS. It must be expensive to take over a country like the US.
Yup yup, they keep hiring more drones. Sometimes I ride my bike part way to work while taking the metro and see about 10-12 sheriffs, chilling and laughing while checking tickets, no shit. I would be laughing to if I got paid 100K a year for sitting around laughing at stupid taxpayers that actually work to support them. They also have some down syndrome looking punks as "Metro Police" This place is not going to hell, we are already here.
Similar unexciting story with other macro activity indicator (e.g. CFNAI after the jump or Philly Fed). The economy is clearly in a slowdown phase - whether it comes out on the side of expansion or contraction is historically a 50/50 proposition. Barring policy madness (e.g. fiscal cliff brinkmanship), best thing we can do is an unsatisfying wait-and-see.
http://www.adsanalytics.com/dashboard/docs/dashboard.php?treepage=tree_d...
J.S.