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Dallas Fed Latest Economic Contraction Confirmation; Survey Respondents' Gloom Soars
The second economic disappointment of the day comes from the Dallas Fed, which dropped from -2.0 to -11.4 on expectations of -9.0- this was the 4th consecutive negative print month. The report was, in a word, horrible, with just 2 of the 15 constituent indices posting an increase, and the bulk solidly in the red, led by Unfilled and New Orders which dropped 16.8 and 11.2, respectively: not good for economic growth. On the employment side there was nothing good either, with both employment and hours worked declining by -6.7 and -10.1, respectively. The only components rising were materials Inventories (must.restock.always), and CapEx, up 10.7. The most critical Production index declined by 9.7, just barely positive at 1.1, and the second lowest in 2011, with a worse number before that printing all the way back in 2009. Yet the most descriptive are the responses from the survey respondents themselves: two words "peak gloom." And why not: the ISM will print in the mid 40s and the NFP could well be negative. Which of course will send stocks soaring even higher on QE3 being priced in for the 666th time.
Break down :
Dallas Fed Conditions:
Production:
And the always amusing comments from the Survey Respondents - absolutely nothing good here.
Primary Metal Manufacturing
There has been a significant decrease in new orders over the past three to four weeks.
Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing
Our high revenue period is usually April through September. This year we increased as expected but have seen a decline beginning in late June and continuing into August, with a continuing declining forecast for September. We had to let go our temporary labor in July and August as well as a few regular team members. This was a very difficult decision since we focus on creating manufacturing jobs. We believe customers, markets, etc. became concerned with the length of time it took Congress to address the debt issue. This resulted in customers taking a wait and see attitude. Business has not gone away, but it has been pushed out due to risk concerns.
Some of our competitors are going out of business.
Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing
Low levels of consumer confidence are reflected in the housing numbers. Continued unemployment coupled with eroding stock market values are driving this lack of confidence. We do not expect any significant change in these factors until after the 2012 elections, with risks being to the downside.
Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing
We are really busy, but our sales backlog does not go out very far.
We have seen a noticeable drop-off in new orders and requests for quotation this summer.
Machinery Manufacturing
The debt ceiling debacle, tax uncertainty, and U.S. credit rating downgrade all contribute to a more pessimistic outlook.
We are getting more discouraged about our general economic outlook. At this point, these general trends are not yet significantly impacting our customer base (principally refiners, midstream energy, petrochemical and power companies). Our activity levels are at all-time high levels, and we expect continued strength in our segment for some time. General economic issues and challenges temper this outlook.
The negative atmosphere in the nationwide economy continues to make capital equipment replacement a low priority for our customer base. All of the improvement expected in six months is based on adding additional customers. We are not expecting any improvement from our current customer base.
Food Manufacturing
We have had three price increases in the last year, and our margins are still way below their historical averages. Since it looks like the cheap dollar and high commodity prices are here to stay, we will continue raising prices until we can reestablish reasonable margins.
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Hmm, days of DJIA soaring, with absolutely no "Irene catastrophe" priced in, and we get a relief rally today, completely ignoring bad news item after item.
Yeah, these markets are entirely functional. Disfunctional, that is.
Bad news is a reason to buy because of QE3. Good news is a reason to buy because the economy is growing. It all makes perfect sense. [/snark]
Summed up nicely Midtowng and Escapekey (always love your stuff). Unreal...bears getting absolutely gored by the robot terminator bulls. I sometimes wonder if infinite funds from the CB's mean this can go on forever and they can always redirect the flows into blackholes when things get too hot.
This can kicking is to normal golf driving what Amarillo Slim's frozen lake shot was. Somedays I wonder if this will ever end...until the CB's pull the plug to usher in the SDR or whatever globalist one world currency. Damn annoying to try and trade, let alone invest har har, in these markets when it's this rigged. It isn't any better on the bull side either.
"go on forever".... maybe.
the results of the Federal Reserve audit: $16 TRILLION in dark money http://www.topix.com/forum/city/sikeston-mo/TJG32H2V466A54P85 and http://polymontana.com/2011/08/20/federal-reserve-audit-reveals-16-trillion-in-secret-bail-outs/ and http://sanders.senate.gov/newsroom/news/?id=9e2a4ea8-6e73-4be2-a753-62060dcbb3c3
with that kind of 0% capital and the "right" reasoning (it's best for everyone to support XXXX pricing), why not?!? At least until TPTB get theirs out of the market and into some tangible, like PMs
odd these easily-googled audit results haven't shown up here at ZeroHedge as a major flaming article yet
QE3 now the most blatant carrot on a stick ever...LOL it will never be delivered, only hinted at here and there for maximum dumb animal spirits effect.
tis true sheepie, tis true. dow flying high, gold getting melted down, the world is SPENDING SPENDING SPENDING instead of saving thanks to .000001 savings rates, this is bernankes dream come true.
Everything about the US Financial markets and the economy are a fraud. Economic reports doctored to reflect what this corrupt government wants to show, computer driven buying and selling without regard for fundaments or real earnings, earnings based upon accounting fraud (banks mark to market sham) and printed stimulus money, GDP based upon the sale of Chinese made goods and GDP contrived from unemployment benefits paid for with borrowed money. Everything that is up should be down and everything down should be up. This is 1932 revisited with a more complicated situation than ever existed in history. The Dow charts are broken, the Gold charts are made up with margin hikes, phony derivative and futures trades that will never settle and every way to understand this market has changed because this corrupt government has fucked up the entire economy to the benefit of a few Wall Street gansters.
Don't stop the music.
Magician Obama:
And for my next trick watch me spin horrific numbers into Jobs! Obviously it would have been far worse if my crack team of economists had not implemented all of my new policies...look over there its a hurricane!
Nowhere to go but up. Buy why you can.
<puke>
if I had to put my testicles on a table, it would be a table covered in gold, not soon to be valueless paper
if I had to put my testicles on a table, it better be a damn strong table.
Is your Elephantitasis acting up?
"Peak gloom" implies there is a limit to government stupidity. I'm not willing to make that assumption.
Wall Street wants QE3.
Wall Street deserves nooses.
What a FUBAR situation.
Been sayin': this time, unlike 08, it's not the top level banks and financials (they never recovered). The core is rotting out. Small biz closures on the rise. Main Street in distress
Obama’s Record Of Success
1. Showed once and for all that Keynesianism is a load of crap.
2. Proved community organizers really have no business in the White House.
3. Proved the Middle East really could get much worse.
4. Proved a weaker dollar does not produce jobs.
5. Proved Gold really will go to $2000 like Peter Schiff said
6. Proved Green Jobs are a sinkhole
7. Proved he really did mean to bankrupt the coal industry
8. Proved Obamacare would bankrupt the system (give it time, I’m just a little early on that one)
Nothing speaks power like success. There isn't a big mystery why we are in a sinkhole when every act coming out of the gov is designed to crush business and distort the markets.
Lemme guess... Republican. Phil Gramm ball-licker.
um, where exactly was he wrong on any of those points?
um, yeah. that's what I thought.
Almost all of the statements apply to Bush as well.... we won't quibble about details..
Seriously, Obama is major failure, but most peoples rifle sights are skewed.
Yep, how soon folks forget it was Bush/Clinton policies + Bush/Clinton appointees that got us here. Obama is just the bag holding moron who is keeping up the Reagan/Bush/Clinton/Bush Keynesian BS brigade going. Folks who think we will do better under a Repub (barring Ron Paul of course) have short memories or are blinded by bogus ideology.
Repubs and Dems, two wings of the same bird of prey.
Having lived through the Obama deception, you still believe that a career politician like Ron Paul is going to be true to his word? RP says all sorts of nice words, presents things in a ridiculously relaxed manner (it's as if everything was happening to someone else - which it is, considering his true allegiance), and above all never accomplishes anything. He may have voted against war here and there: his votes didn't accomplish squat, and basically existed to give him the right 'credentials' come 2012.
There's a very simple reason for the lameness of the rest of the Republican lineup: they are meant to be so abhorent that we will feel lucky to have RP. The guy won't even say the truth about 9/11, so there's no way he'll ever do the right thing once in office. He is a NWO shill, through and through. In any case, with the Diebold vote fraud machines in operation all over the place, voting is now pointless.
The most laughable thing about RP supporters is how they propose that the guy will be able to fix things on his own - if he ends up being true, he'll just get shot like JFK. The corruption is so widespread now (supreme court, courts in general, district attorneys, 99% of politicians, CIA, FBI, etc.), and yet a single man is going to turn it all around and make things better? Revolution is the only hope we have.
There goes the TX miracle.
"I'm not arguing that with you," said Mr. Waturi.
According to Bubblevision and the politicians down is the new up. This is a very poor report, especially new orders and new orders growth outlook. The recession is here.
Indeed.. Most people I know are not at all confident about their jobs and/or businesses.. It's pretty obvious things are losing steam..
And Gold tumbles on the news! Tumbles up.
Had the laugh... CNBC just flashed a promo:
"Tune in to the SOTS"
They might want to check out what a sot is first...
sot1
n1. a habitual or chronic drunkard 2. a person stupefied by or as if by drink
[Old English, from Medieval Latin sottus; compare French sot a fool] sottish adj
CNBC stupefied drunken sots!
Please! The idea that our Congress is broken does not held water. In reality, it is beholden to the 0.24% of people who contribute 90% of ALL campaign money in the US.
http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/opinionperspectives/930830-263/congress-i...
I'll take that number at facevalue, if true, it goes a long way to explaining everything in a quatifiable manner. (Not that I ever doubted the cause/effect, but I was not aware of the imbalance...)
this news is bad enough to send the /Es over 1250.
makes perfect sense.
Recessions, esp. the multi-year recessions like the current one, seem to be bullish for equities.
More usual CNBC crap. Same old story. Just change the date to a year ago and make the price of Gold dropping under $1000. Next year, same story with the price of Gold dropping under $2000.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840
I am shocked!!! The Dallas Fed wins the http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5E3CSizTNQ award.......the hunker down period has been officially acknowledged.
Everyone with a room temperature IQ knows the 535 +1 morons cannot do anything that can change course before the election Captain Smith is on the bridge and away we go….; welcome to a sustained state of awfulness.
another ugly print, another wtf rally...the truly sad part is when the bottom falls out or when the plug is pulled, when the irresistible force that is economic gravity does finally win out over the robots and central planners...I don't think I can even begin to imagine what America will look like. how much longer will the illusion hold? not much I would think...
I see the NFP forecast is 53,000 from a previous 117,000. Smells like a "Beat" setup.
Handosme QE3 on the way. Just imagine.....another year of record high Wall Street Bonuses.
I guess Rahm Emmanual, Barry's former handler was right....never waste a crisis.
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