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Dallas Fed Plunges Most In Over 7 Years To 10 Month Low; With Biggest Miss In 14 Months

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With expectations for a muddle-through slight positive print, the headline Dallas Fed index just printed at -13.2 (exp. 1.9). This is its lowest level since September of last year and the biggest miss of expectations since May of last year. The headline index is teetering on the edge of its worst levels since 2009 as the month to month change in the general business activity index dropped a massive 19pts - its largest drop since April 2005. Specifically it appears the outlook for capital expenditures was among the largest sub-index to have its hope crushed - and this strongly suggests (and confirms) a sub-50 ISM print.

The Dallas Fed general activty index plunged its most in over seven years...

 

to last summer's levels...

 

which goes to confirm the sub-50 ISM print that appears to be looming large... (h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 07/30/2012 - 10:49 | 2662201 SilverDoctors
SilverDoctors's picture

explains this morning's silver pop?

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 10:51 | 2662211 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

bullish, time to load up on Netflix, zinga, faceplant, and amazon.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:54 | 2662372 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Zing! Ahhhh!

Thud!

 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 13:31 | 2662737 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Great time for risk on. Higher commodity and housing prices are needed now, in spite of the fact we are blowing another bubble. They have no choice but to inflate.

- Long assets now as the central banks MUST double down.
- Have one finger on the trigger to short this bitch when the bubble no longer responds.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 10:54 | 2662226 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

hang on til friday. I'm getting a tube then.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:06 | 2662261 Whatta
Whatta's picture

Time for Tepper II rally.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:53 | 2662369 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

HOPEY-CHANGEY, SUCKAZ!!!

(You didn't build that. Somebody else built that)

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 10:50 | 2662204 transaccountin
transaccountin's picture

nothing some fresh new qe cant solve. just waiting for es to get above 1400 to get the printers going you know

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 10:51 | 2662206 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

QEn imminent.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 13:09 | 2662638 Stuart
Stuart's picture

not this month.  They'll just talk about it some more and wait for conditions and data to become irrefutably dire.... it's their usual MO.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 10:50 | 2662207 mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

hmm some slippage here..but as usuall the market ignores it..

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 10:51 | 2662213 vinu02
Mon, 07/30/2012 - 10:52 | 2662215 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Remember playing backyard football as a kid and the one slow kid with no coordination?  Remember what you told him?  Hey kid "you you go long, I'll hit you in the end zone, promise."

Some things never change.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 10:52 | 2662219 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Hey, if Bernanke just stood on his head and looked at the chart he'd be extremely happy and wetting his pants...er, head...

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 10:52 | 2662221 mick68
mick68's picture

Bulls will soon have to bury their heads, necks, shoulders, and torsos in the sand to avoid seeing the truth.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:01 | 2662245 Haager
Haager's picture

They already did so.

So, when does the Pamplonan ride starts? Do I need lots of popcorn?

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 10:54 | 2662223 crawldaddy
crawldaddy's picture

using my constanza like wall street approach.  Its time to buy since bad=good.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 10:55 | 2662230 Brother Sebastian
Brother Sebastian's picture

 

Dick Fisher's response:  "Does 'slow down' mean the same thing as 'slow up'"?

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 10:56 | 2662235 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Thank the lord that our savior, (insert Romney/Obama here), will save us from the bowels of depression.  May we never eat our peas, for they now fester with virulent pestilence! 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:01 | 2662246 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

The Fed's job has become so easy. Just let the bad news print itself and the market will continue to price in yet more QE. They don't even need to utter a word.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:01 | 2662247 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

In our brave new zombie world...all bad news is exceedingly bullish. Rather than pass laws to prohbit shorting...in America we simply threaten the short siders with QE. So every time the news is bad...the market goes up. It doesn't get much sicker than that.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:02 | 2662248 NotAnAvgBeanCounter
NotAnAvgBeanCounter's picture

here we go again; at least there's no one really to blame but ourselves for not supporting production. its not washington scumbag nor bankers; its the avg population who is shitting themselves on a daily basis. This is funny to me everyone said there's no jobs but yet no one can hire unless someone buying all this useless shit. Someone's gotta budge and for damn sure isn't going to be the multi-nationals. 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:03 | 2662251 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Define useless.

Ammo is pretty good coming out of Texas these days.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:03 | 2662250 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

If it aint in Texas, it AINT...

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:06 | 2662259 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

but but.. yahoo finance is running the dow 22k story.. well  that explains it. the worse news the worse the cover up

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:07 | 2662264 Snakeeyes
Mon, 07/30/2012 - 13:23 | 2662703 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

He'll print to save obama

 

Will QE3 Be Announced In August?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/747801-will-qe3-be-announced-in-august

 

This I believe is just propaganda

Fed Weighs Cutting Interest On Banks’ Reserves After ECB Move

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-30/fed-weighs-cutting-interest-on-banks-reserves-after-ecb-move.html

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:07 | 2662267 GaryNeville
GaryNeville's picture

Miss across the board = Green across the board....

Draghi and the Bernank better make sure the drug addicts get their 'hit' this week or there will be some serious cold turkey!

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:13 | 2662279 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

A classic game of chicken going on.. the Hedges holding stocks with blessing of the fed on one side and a looming depression on the other.. Who will move first?  Do you really have that much confidence in the bearded fellow? I feel the rush for the exits will be brutal once REALITY comes back.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 13:24 | 2662706 LMAOLORI
Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:12 | 2662280 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

anyone still believe this is just an organic short squeeze?

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:12 | 2662282 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Just wait until Friday's jobs report.  Or rather, lack of jobs report...

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:17 | 2662294 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

if you view the chart since the last dreadful jobs report you will realize it means nothing.!! all data all earnings are irrelevant. thanks ben! serious. lets not get our panties in a ruffle over the jobs report.. completely meaningless

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:32 | 2662329 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Exactly. The jobs report could indicate widespread economic devastation and the markets will advance. Ultimately the Dallas Fed report is meaningless, as was the ISM printing at below 50 which sent its own signals re the economy. On CNBC this morning, very happy Fed muppets chatted about their take on the markets which was QE3 has already been priced in and there's nowhere for the markets to go but up.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:40 | 2662342 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

cnbs is a complete embarassment to the profession of journalism. thats just an infomertial. thats it. might as well have shamwow on there. maria friday.. a rally is a rally. i wonder if she thinks a "blank" in her mouth is a "blank" in her mouth to? .. fill in the blanks

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 12:30 | 2662520 RSloane
RSloane's picture

Its not just CNBC. High-trafficked websites supposedly devoted to business have not even mentioned the Dallas Fed print yet. Lead stories include shit like the market pauses and eyes central banks for guidance [meaning more easing]. Its shockingly juvenile to get to the point where if bad news is not printed it doesn't exist, but that's exactly where we are.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 12:31 | 2662521 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

I'm sure that many blanks have been in her mouth.  You have to swallow a lot of blank to get a job like that.    

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:22 | 2662309 Conman
Conman's picture

Last 2 followed this pattern - one day drop followed by 2 day rally bringing markets back above the drop level.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:13 | 2662283 Muppet Pimp
Muppet Pimp's picture

Confirming yet again the equity markets have decoupled from the economy. Once recession is confirmed we should see new all time highs!

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:15 | 2662289 Brother Sebastian
Brother Sebastian's picture

That's right, we have "inspired" leaders here in Texas.  Such as Dubya, who, when president, told everyone "The best way to relieve families is to let them keep some of their own money."  (Of course, he went on say, "Families is where our nation finds hope, where wings take dream.") 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:45 | 2662351 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Did someone ever ask, is people struggling to put food on their families?

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:18 | 2662292 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

It's the beard!, it has traders mezmorized and under control. Volcker had his cigar, Greenspan the briefcase, BB... the beard.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:18 | 2662300 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Horrible data from the Dallas Fed barely causes a ripple in the markets.  A furrowing of the brow from Bernanke or Draghi would have had a much bigger effect.

Why waste time with data when the "markets" are just a Bernanke-Draghi magical mystery show?

Ben and Mario create their own reality now.  All you can do is study that and react to it.

We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality — judiciously, as you will — we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors … and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.

 

 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:27 | 2662310 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Yes I am still 100% SHORT this Biatch!   Think a HFT Computer has that kind of Ballz.. NO it does'nt.  It will Short circuit when the time comes.  Put your faith and $$ on a line of computer code and see what happens.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:25 | 2662314 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I thought all the action was in Houston?

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:28 | 2662318 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

justobserving. you forgot the "unnamed source" in europe.friday afternoon that got an over +50 pop in the dow (not that it means anything) in under a minute. ive said many times. This "market" makes the internet bubble look like childs play as far as frauds go

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:29 | 2662319 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Just know there are BIG Ballz and Deep Pockets on the other side of the trade.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:34 | 2662331 miker
miker's picture

Here's how things will play out. The Fed will ease. They will buy MBS or other private securities; NOT Treasuries. The new money will be channeled (slowly and methodically) into the stock market to continue a gradual rise. All they can do is try and build more "wealth effect". They will certainly NOT allow the stock market to tank like in 09. They got caught flat footed there. Won't happen again unless there is incredible panic selling (huge exogenous event).

Interest rates are plenty low. Any improvement there is extremely marginal for economy. Besides, fright flight has done most of their work for them. May need to goose a little as Europe heals some after ECB eases also this week.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 16:05 | 2663281 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

then who will buy the treasuries?

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:42 | 2662346 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

afraid your right. gone is true price discovery just price propaganda inspired by muppet-vision

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 11:48 | 2662357 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

Bernanke, Draghi & co must have started buying stocks, like SNB admitted months ago

CAC40 is almost 10% up in 3 sessions, just on hope or a doubtful promise made by Draghi which induced an unprecedented short squeeze?

that's just a smokescreen if you ask me, they hit a programmed buying button somewhere well out of sight last week - its the only possible explanation for prices moving along straight and almost parabolic mathematical support lines, with inflection points being triggered that counter downtrends which have no connection to "news" whatsoever

and even if they offload at a loss, probably nobody will know

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 13:40 | 2662500 ATG
ATG's picture

Italy and Spain banned shorts and still went up.

The measures resemble decisions in August last year by France, Belgium, Spain and Italy in their bid to stabilize markets after European banks hit their lowest since the 2008 credit crisis.

Buying SPY Aug calls for similar reasons...

http://richcash8tradeblog.blogspot.com/2012/07/rich-cash-overnight-options.html

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 12:27 | 2662507 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

Just fucking buy stocks and shut the fuck up. Why so negative when the stock market rises all boats? Just ask Ben.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 12:53 | 2662594 sschu
sschu's picture

 

There is a huge disconnect between the real world and the “markets” right now and correcting this disconnect will ultimately be extremely painful to many.  Unfortunately there is no escape from this madness.  

Where did Bennie etal get this idea that they can somehow convince people to spend and businesses to invest by artificially inflating asset prices.  Buying MBS, holding down bond rates, injecting “liquidity” so that stock prices stay high, bailing out zombie corporations, 30 year mortgage rates below 3%, financing unlimited government deficits, what exactly is the theory behind all this nonsense?  Where has it worked before? 

This is all going to come apart and a LOT of people are going to get seriously hurt.  And who will be there to hold Bennie accountable?

They have no answers to the economic challenges we face, because the answers entail admitting they have been wrong since the 1950s.

 Insanity reigns.

 sschu

 

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 13:42 | 2662767 miker
miker's picture

sschu, you raise many valid points and I share your frustration.  The reality though is they are playing the hand that has been dealt.  You could of course argure that Bernanke helped deal the hand, but that wouldn't be fully true.  This mess started 3 decades ago and each President and Fed Chair and of course Congress has had a hand in the madness. 

They have NO choice but to print.  Remember too that all printing will not immediately translate to inflated prices for goods and services.  They are trying to carefully control that to the extent possible.  Actually, it's quite amazing to me that they've been as successful as they have been so far, given the rather complex and somewhat crude tools to work with. 

Anyway, the big problem, as you identified, are the deficits and our political system.  The CB's can do their easing and be reasonably successful in reaching their goals (low interest, higher equity markets) but without a resolution to our colossal spending/revenue problems, it won't work forever.  I think too, that the smart folks know that the economy is not "coming back".  Most of what we left in 2007 was way inflated by debt spending.  The true economy is what we have now and maybe even somewhat lower.

Thanks for your comments.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 15:18 | 2663127 sschu
sschu's picture

They have NO choice but to print. 

I think they do have a choice, but are unwilling for various reasons to do what is right.  The chance to make substantial changes was there in 2008, we would have been past the worst of it by now.  By supporting their buddies on Wall Street we now have zombie TBTF financial institutions whose failure is a real threat to everyone's prosperity.

Remember too that all printing will not immediately translate to inflated prices for goods and services.  They are trying to carefully control that to the extent possible.

Excess liquidity flows to wherever the banks can make the most money, the stock market in 1999, real estate in 2005, bonds and commodities since the crash and stocks now.  The CBs have no more control where the free money flows than you or I.

Thanks for the reply.

sschu

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 13:23 | 2662702 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Too hot for steers and queers.

Mon, 07/30/2012 - 13:43 | 2662782 ATG
ATG's picture

OO used the pullback to buy open long SPY Aug calls:

http://richcash8tradeblog.blogspot.com/2012/07/rich-cash-overnight-options.html

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