Dallas Fed Plunges Most In Over 7 Years To 10 Month Low; With Biggest Miss In 14 Months

Tyler Durden's picture

With expectations for a muddle-through slight positive print, the headline Dallas Fed index just printed at -13.2 (exp. 1.9). This is its lowest level since September of last year and the biggest miss of expectations since May of last year. The headline index is teetering on the edge of its worst levels since 2009 as the month to month change in the general business activity index dropped a massive 19pts - its largest drop since April 2005. Specifically it appears the outlook for capital expenditures was among the largest sub-index to have its hope crushed - and this strongly suggests (and confirms) a sub-50 ISM print.

The Dallas Fed general activty index plunged its most in over seven years...


to last summer's levels...


which goes to confirm the sub-50 ISM print that appears to be looming large... (h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)


Charts: Bloomberg

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SilverDoctors's picture

explains this morning's silver pop?

camaro68ss's picture

bullish, time to load up on Netflix, zinga, faceplant, and amazon.

The Monkey's picture

Great time for risk on. Higher commodity and housing prices are needed now, in spite of the fact we are blowing another bubble. They have no choice but to inflate.

- Long assets now as the central banks MUST double down.
- Have one finger on the trigger to short this bitch when the bubble no longer responds.

Canadian Dirtlump's picture

hang on til friday. I'm getting a tube then.

Whatta's picture

Time for Tepper II rally.

FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture


(You didn't build that. Somebody else built that)

transaccountin's picture

nothing some fresh new qe cant solve. just waiting for es to get above 1400 to get the printers going you know

Stuart's picture

not this month.  They'll just talk about it some more and wait for conditions and data to become irrefutably dire.... it's their usual MO.

mrktwtch2's picture

hmm some slippage here..but as usuall the market ignores it..

LawsofPhysics's picture

Remember playing backyard football as a kid and the one slow kid with no coordination?  Remember what you told him?  Hey kid "you you go long, I'll hit you in the end zone, promise."

Some things never change.

El Oregonian's picture

Hey, if Bernanke just stood on his head and looked at the chart he'd be extremely happy and wetting his pants...er, head...

mick68's picture

Bulls will soon have to bury their heads, necks, shoulders, and torsos in the sand to avoid seeing the truth.

Haager's picture

They already did so.

So, when does the Pamplonan ride starts? Do I need lots of popcorn?

crawldaddy's picture

using my constanza like wall street approach.  Its time to buy since bad=good.

Brother Sebastian's picture


Dick Fisher's response:  "Does 'slow down' mean the same thing as 'slow up'"?

Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Thank the lord that our savior, (insert Romney/Obama here), will save us from the bowels of depression.  May we never eat our peas, for they now fester with virulent pestilence! 

FieldingMellish's picture

The Fed's job has become so easy. Just let the bad news print itself and the market will continue to price in yet more QE. They don't even need to utter a word.

lunaticfringe's picture

In our brave new zombie world...all bad news is exceedingly bullish. Rather than pass laws to prohbit shorting...in America we simply threaten the short siders with QE. So every time the news is bad...the market goes up. It doesn't get much sicker than that.

NotAnAvgBeanCounter's picture

here we go again; at least there's no one really to blame but ourselves for not supporting production. its not washington scumbag nor bankers; its the avg population who is shitting themselves on a daily basis. This is funny to me everyone said there's no jobs but yet no one can hire unless someone buying all this useless shit. Someone's gotta budge and for damn sure isn't going to be the multi-nationals. 

HungrySeagull's picture

Define useless.

Ammo is pretty good coming out of Texas these days.

HungrySeagull's picture

If it aint in Texas, it AINT...

Meesohaawnee's picture

but but.. yahoo finance is running the dow 22k story.. well  that explains it. the worse news the worse the cover up

LMAOLORI's picture



He'll print to save obama


Will QE3 Be Announced In August?



This I believe is just propaganda

Fed Weighs Cutting Interest On Banks’ Reserves After ECB Move


GaryNeville's picture

Miss across the board = Green across the board....

Draghi and the Bernank better make sure the drug addicts get their 'hit' this week or there will be some serious cold turkey!

virgilcaine's picture

A classic game of chicken going on.. the Hedges holding stocks with blessing of the fed on one side and a looming depression on the other.. Who will move first?  Do you really have that much confidence in the bearded fellow? I feel the rush for the exits will be brutal once REALITY comes back.

dvsteenk's picture

anyone still believe this is just an organic short squeeze?

Moneyswirth's picture

Just wait until Friday's jobs report.  Or rather, lack of jobs report...

Meesohaawnee's picture

if you view the chart since the last dreadful jobs report you will realize it means nothing.!! all data all earnings are irrelevant. thanks ben! serious. lets not get our panties in a ruffle over the jobs report.. completely meaningless

RSloane's picture

Exactly. The jobs report could indicate widespread economic devastation and the markets will advance. Ultimately the Dallas Fed report is meaningless, as was the ISM printing at below 50 which sent its own signals re the economy. On CNBC this morning, very happy Fed muppets chatted about their take on the markets which was QE3 has already been priced in and there's nowhere for the markets to go but up.

Meesohaawnee's picture

cnbs is a complete embarassment to the profession of journalism. thats just an infomertial. thats it. might as well have shamwow on there. maria friday.. a rally is a rally. i wonder if she thinks a "blank" in her mouth is a "blank" in her mouth to? .. fill in the blanks

RSloane's picture

Its not just CNBC. High-trafficked websites supposedly devoted to business have not even mentioned the Dallas Fed print yet. Lead stories include shit like the market pauses and eyes central banks for guidance [meaning more easing]. Its shockingly juvenile to get to the point where if bad news is not printed it doesn't exist, but that's exactly where we are.

Things that go bump's picture

I'm sure that many blanks have been in her mouth.  You have to swallow a lot of blank to get a job like that.    

Conman's picture

Last 2 followed this pattern - one day drop followed by 2 day rally bringing markets back above the drop level.

Muppet Pimp's picture

Confirming yet again the equity markets have decoupled from the economy. Once recession is confirmed we should see new all time highs!

Brother Sebastian's picture

That's right, we have "inspired" leaders here in Texas.  Such as Dubya, who, when president, told everyone "The best way to relieve families is to let them keep some of their own money."  (Of course, he went on say, "Families is where our nation finds hope, where wings take dream.") 

blunderdog's picture

Did someone ever ask, is people struggling to put food on their families?

virgilcaine's picture

It's the beard!, it has traders mezmorized and under control. Volcker had his cigar, Greenspan the briefcase, BB... the beard.

JustObserving's picture

Horrible data from the Dallas Fed barely causes a ripple in the markets.  A furrowing of the brow from Bernanke or Draghi would have had a much bigger effect.

Why waste time with data when the "markets" are just a Bernanke-Draghi magical mystery show?

Ben and Mario create their own reality now.  All you can do is study that and react to it.

We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality — judiciously, as you will — we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors … and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.



virgilcaine's picture

Yes I am still 100% SHORT this Biatch!   Think a HFT Computer has that kind of Ballz.. NO it does'nt.  It will Short circuit when the time comes.  Put your faith and $$ on a line of computer code and see what happens.

disabledvet's picture

I thought all the action was in Houston?

Meesohaawnee's picture

justobserving. you forgot the "unnamed source" in europe.friday afternoon that got an over +50 pop in the dow (not that it means anything) in under a minute. ive said many times. This "market" makes the internet bubble look like childs play as far as frauds go

virgilcaine's picture

Just know there are BIG Ballz and Deep Pockets on the other side of the trade.

miker's picture

Here's how things will play out. The Fed will ease. They will buy MBS or other private securities; NOT Treasuries. The new money will be channeled (slowly and methodically) into the stock market to continue a gradual rise. All they can do is try and build more "wealth effect". They will certainly NOT allow the stock market to tank like in 09. They got caught flat footed there. Won't happen again unless there is incredible panic selling (huge exogenous event).

Interest rates are plenty low. Any improvement there is extremely marginal for economy. Besides, fright flight has done most of their work for them. May need to goose a little as Europe heals some after ECB eases also this week.

Savyindallas's picture

then who will buy the treasuries?