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Dallas Fed Plunges Negative. Biggest Miss In 10 Months

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index tends to be a little less of a headline-maker  than many of its macro-data peers, today's dismal report is worth paying attention to. The index turned negative for the first time this year, dropped to its lowest level in 7 months and missed expectations by the largest amount in 10 months. The drop from +10.8 to -3.4 is also the largest sequential drop in 11 months. Only the inventories sub-index rose (hardly a bright spot) as Production, Number of Employees, New Orders, and Capacity Utilization all plunged and the average workweek fell for the first time in months. The US decoupling myth continues to come apart at the seams and the likelihood of more easing (extreme or not) seems to be rising by the day - because that has worked so well in the past.

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 04/30/2012 - 10:48 | 2385032 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

What gives J.R.?

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 10:58 | 2385054 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Jorge Ramirez went back to Mexico.  Didn't you read Tyler's post on emigration?????????

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:01 | 2385058 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Saw something I have never seen before on my commute this morning.  A big new oil rig that has been built over the past month at one of the local manufacturers had a giant FOR SALE sign draped across it.  Somebody must have cancelled the order?

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:21 | 2385107 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

QE is a Comin Boys!

I can Hear it Now!!

She'll be comin round the mountain when she comes!

She'll be comin round the mountain when she comes!

She'll be comin round the mountain!

She'll be comin round the mountain!

She'll be comin round the mountain when she comes!

 

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 14:18 | 2385777 Jake88
Jake88's picture

And that is a good thing because it will give you mountains of worthless money.  Keep singing dude as they rearrange the deck chairs. IDIOT!!!

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 10:50 | 2385033 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Manufacture in USA?

I think not.

 

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 10:53 | 2385041 kaiten
kaiten's picture

Printing counts as manufacturing, I think.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 10:55 | 2385048 CPL
CPL's picture

Why would they even extend the basic effort necessary to draw numbers that are correct.

Easier just to pull numbers from their asses now and we can all pretend the capital markets and manufacturing mean anything anymore.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:43 | 2385177 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

like hamburger production at McDonalds.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:02 | 2385065 HarryM
HarryM's picture

Why not? - just retrain our recent college grads to sew soccer balls so we can compete on a global scale.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 12:43 | 2385318 AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

Do the manual dexterity skills from texting on my iphone and playing playstation transfer to the assembly line?

 

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:25 | 2385119 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

 

GOSPLAN HERO

Manufacture in USA?

I think not.

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/beltway/2011/02/14/intelligence-community-fears-u-s-manufacturing-decline/

Intelligence Community "FEARZ!" U.S. Manufacturing Decline

Last week, the federal government reported that the U.S. trade deficit grew by 33 percent in 2010 to nearly half a trillion dollars. Most of the gap resulted from an imbalance in trade with China, which shipped $365 billion in goods to America but only bought $92 billion in U.S. goods. The resulting U.S. deficit of $273 billion in bilateral trade with Beijing reflects a persistent feature of the Sino-American relationship since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. Over the last ten years, China has mounted the biggest challenge to the U.S. manufacturing sector ever seen, threatening producers of steel, chemicals, glass, paper, drugs and any number of other items with prices they cannot match. Not coincidentally, the United States has lost an average of 50,000 manufacturing jobs every month during the same period.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 10:54 | 2385043 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

RALLY TIME!!!

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:06 | 2385067 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Yield rally?  Not if Ben "The Bid" Bernanke can help it.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 10:54 | 2385044 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Another indicators that sends the bearish message.  First PMI and now Dallas Fed.

 

Dow Jones is still saying bearish in elliott wave terms:

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/index/djia/hourly/

 

You can get email notifications when then chart updates:

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/members/signup/

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 10:58 | 2385053 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Let's see if this debacle in Fisher's own backyard changes his hawkish tone. If not QE may actually be in jeopardy.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 10:59 | 2385057 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Interesting this is negative.  This is the oil region where its jobs jobs jobs...um...well that is what the Dallas Fed prez always says on CNBC

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 10:59 | 2385060 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Average workweek declined, that's good people are getting more time to relax.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:00 | 2385062 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Maybe the president should visit Dallas in a open car to boost moral?

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:06 | 2385081 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

I'd rather see him humiliated in November.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:45 | 2385180 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

the only ppl getting humiliated by elections are the American people.  The politicians are all cut from the same cloth except perhaps RP.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:27 | 2385128 Grinder74
Grinder74's picture

The Secret Service would be visiting you now, except that they didn't find the key words "blow" and "job" in your post.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:04 | 2385073 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

Krugman says this is even more bullish

(ok I  have done this joke 2 post ago, finished my last contract, and am now looking for work and pissed on cheap high alcohol 10% beer...but Krugman writes my material)

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:03 | 2385074 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Larry Summers says this kind of thing can be solved with "...more borrowing and lending, and more spending."

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:07 | 2385083 distopiandreamboy
distopiandreamboy's picture

The Dallas Fed only matters when it's going up

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:21 | 2385109 HarryM
HarryM's picture

This like being tied up and watching the thieves loot your house.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 12:48 | 2385342 distopiandreamboy
distopiandreamboy's picture

At least in that case you'll have a reliable indicator sounding the end. I can feel a slight tremble on the tracks now...

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 12:04 | 2385232 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

i guess dallas will have to postpone its secession amendment for a few more years [damn them Sioux Dakhota`s], while the railroads bid-up oklahoma?

back to da`alamo for ya, bucky!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_Sucession_Movement

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:10 | 2385084 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

I love the aroma of freshly printed money, especially now that my doctor forbade me to eat donuts.

Bring it on, Ben.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:22 | 2385114 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep and bring on the $5 gas for fall election happy time feelings too. Go for it Ben!

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:10 | 2385087 djsmps
djsmps's picture

While I can't find any news on any of the other financial sites about the Dalls Fed miss, at least they have all covered the Comedian-In-Chief's remarks from the other night.  Come on ZH, keep up.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:16 | 2385095 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

things in DC and metro DC could not be better..seems big national problems always mean more money for DC.

remember the ave american with a job pays taxes for the first 5 months of each year from earnings before they earn any $$ to keep.

the good times keep rock'n on k steet..can one invest in DHS or NSA?? have they gone public yet?

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:31 | 2385139 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture
"Neighborhoods crumble as thousands of homes sit in legal limb"

 

"In Greenacres in central Palm Beach County, one resident got so fed up with the condition of the abandoned vermin-ridden duplex attached to hers, and the lack of response from Bank of America, the mortgage servicer, that she stuck a sign on its window last September that read: "House full of RATS & BANK don't care." The foreclosure case, filed on behalf of another bank, had been ongoing for two years by then."

 

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/bad-neighbor-banks/fl-bad-neighbo...

 

 

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:32 | 2385142 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Combine with the Chicago index and global deflation in housing prices.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/04/30/chicago-pmi-declines-to-56-2-back-to-sept-08-levels/

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:41 | 2385170 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Bullish, very bullish.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:42 | 2385173 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

"I'm not a fan of QE III"

Richard Fisher, as he signs a check to buy more gold and land.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:44 | 2385179 DavidJ
DavidJ's picture

Will the US have a negative 2Q GDP print?

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 11:53 | 2385202 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Who woulda thought wid the oil bidness booming, the great state of texas would be down???

 

 

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 12:20 | 2385264 BLACK_DOG
BLACK_DOG's picture

We need another "Operation Texas".

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 13:29 | 2385524 Eric L. Prentis
Eric L. Prentis's picture

My technical analysis model, based on long-term trends in the stock market, predicts the US will slip back into recession in April/May 2012.

http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/ijef/article/view/7033

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 13:29 | 2385526 dcb
dcb's picture

yup we need more qe, so we have more inflation so the 99% have less money to spend to fix the economy. notice how we have growth everytime the markets fall and prices drop. then we do the qe ramps them up and causes growth to drop as prices rise.

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 14:14 | 2385756 Jake88
Jake88's picture

Sarcasm. Right?

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 15:17 | 2386019 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

 We are half way across the ocean in the hull of a slave ship and yet still some are thinking that they just didn't understand correctly what the nice man with the whip was trying to tell them! Its not easy living in denial, even in Texas!

Mon, 04/30/2012 - 20:25 | 2386996 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

Manufacturing in USA......we are hamstringed. My high tech manufacturing company would love to manufacture more in the US...good quality, lower manufacturing costs, lower energy costs, very favorable overall....except taxes. The product can be manufactured at an overseas plant with higher costs...but with lower taxes and regulations they come out ahead.

We would hire about 50 more Americans at our plant if the production was shifted here.....sad.

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