This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Dallas Fed's Fisher Exhibits Peak Cognitive Dissonance And Self-Delusion
For today's definitive example of peak cognitive dissonance and self-delusion among those who determine the monetary fate of the world no less, look no further than the Dallas Fed's Dick Fisher, who just said the following according to Reuters:
- No one presently believes that the Fed is going to proceed with QE3 - is that because it will be called THE NEW QE?
Funny considering earlier, we got this from Goldman's Bill Dudley:
- No decision yet on QE3, New York Fed's Dudley says
Finally, there is this pearl from Goldman's Jan Hatzius as reported here last week:
- Not easing might be equivalent to tightening
And that is why central planning always fails. Because a room of these terminally confused people sits down and determines the fate of the world based on their naive academic interpretation of what they perceive is reality.
More from Reuters:
The U.S. financial system is well funded and needs no further injections of liquidity, a top U.S. central banker said on Monday.
"We have filled the tanks, there is plenty of liquidity. We need no more," Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher told a round table discussion at a business event in London.
Fisher is an outspoken policy hawk who has been critical of the Fed's last round of asset purchases,
In late 2008, the U.S. central bank slashed interest rates to near zero and has since bought $2.3 trillion in long-term securities in an unprecedented drive to spur growth and revive the economy after the worst recession in decades.
Last week it gave few clues on the prospects for further monetary easing, offering just a slight upgrade to its economic outlook while restating concerns about the high level of unemployment.
- 8588 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -


A warm feeling all around. I actually believe that, notional GDP targetting enters stage right.
That warm feeling is the collective pants-pissing of those counting on more QE.
So markets have ran up from DOW 9,000 to 13,000 based upon 'QE3 coming at any minute now people', and now that its not coming its no big deal?
I get a real funny feeling one of these mornings soon will be a real huge market shocker.
And here I was thinking that the markets and oil have run up because the dollar is worth less, so it takes more dollars to buy them......
The awesome feeling of things getting better because of the market rise is just the icing on the cake.
But but but but but remember, Little Dickie is but one member and the OMC with it's new voting roster is uber-liberal/inflationista
Jim Rogers says QE3 is happening right now:
"We already have QE 3. Get out the Federal Reserve‘s balance sheet. You’ll see that they’ve been pumping up – you can see unadjusted M2 is going through the roof. Look at their balance sheet.
All sorts of assets are suddenly appearing on their balance sheet. Where did they come from? They didn’t come from the Tooth Fairy; they came because they’re in there buying in the market as fast as they can. There Is QE 3 already. They don’t call it that but it’s there."
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2012/02/qe-3-is-already-taking-place-look-at.html
Hey numbnuts, ZIRP is QE!!! There is a very real cost for creating capital without adding any real value to the system.
Don't be a Dick.
indeed no, that's Joe Bidens job
Joe Biden's job is to repeat things others have said. Sometimes legally, sometimes illegally. And sometimes he gets it right, sometimes...not so much.
Indeed, Joe wasn't so clever here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buRO9TSlScQ
or here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xm3VMrKqJSA
..agreed Joe "repeats" things.. he repeats his speeches and what i really like is how he repeats being genuine, warm and authentic
Maybe Barack/Joe will follow John Corzine's advice/action once again (his last word of advice, really, with the MF Global BK just a prelim test case for the moment when the US debt supercycle swings into the abyss) when they decide to suddenly make all of our trading accounts vaporize into the Federal Reserve borg never to reappear again. Corzine is really the evil mastermind of all of 21st century "finance."
dub
Hey dumb nuts, Operation Twist is also QE!!!
at US $44.44 billion per month over 9 month until 12 June 2012 that's nothing to be sneezed at !
On the economic front today, the latest Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) report was issued today
and has shown that the national average price of petrol rose by 1.3 cents to 147.1 aussie cents a litre last week.And over the past five weeks, the Singapore unleaded fuel price has surged by almost US$12 a barrel and is holding at the highest levels in 3½ years” Due to higher wholesale prices, a 2 to 3 cent a litre rise is expected over the next fortnight.
On Thursday, Japan will issue its latest trade balance which is likely to be another trade deficit (trade has been weak following last year’s disasters).China’s latest manufacturing update will be delivered by HSBC on Thursday also and has the potential to be market moving. And...
In Europe tonight, the Greek credit default swap auction will be held.
The British Central Bank will be releasing its latest MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) minutes from its monthly meeting on interest rates on Wednesday night in addition to its latest Annual Budget Release at 11.30pm on that same night. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) President will be speaking on Thursday night
while the U.K’s latest retail sales result will be out that evening also.And...
I worked out that the national Debt of the UK is 11 trillion,
US 10 trillion or 480% of UK's 2.4 trillion GDP is public Debt (foreign Debt)
US1 trillion or 41% of UK's 2.4 trillion GDP is 2012 Government Debt (Budget deficit)
add it all up and.. UK national Debt is 11 trillion USD !
United Kingdom in the sheit :According to the Financial Policy Committee "Any associated disruption to bank funding markets could spill over to UK banks." Bank of England governor Mervyn King declared that the UK is very much at risk from a domino-fall of defaults and called on banks to build up more capital when financial conditions allowed. This is because the UK has the highest gross foreign debt of any European country (€7.3 trillion; €117,580 per person) due in large part to its highly leveraged financial industry, which is closely connected with both the United States and the Eurozone.
please tell me I read that wrong !
Angela Merkel and her finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble will Not be happy !
wr;)
This tank was built when .29 gas and 30/hr American Jobs were it baby,
Feed me!
(A cookie for those who know this movie)
And I aint touching the rotted debt to buy a little golf cart that cannot survive the left lane for more than 10 miles on any form of power.
Seymore!
Ho hum, everyone lies all the time.
QE3 or interest rates going higher. That's the choice.
And as gas blows past $4 avg right now, more 'QE' would mean $6 gas for their precious little elections? I dont see any of it happening.
Theyre just sticking to the original plan- 'Rumors of QE are JUST as good as QE itself'! Carrot and stick economic model, but that horse is lookin REAL tired.
You're right ... but who will buy the treasuries if not the Fed? That is the problem and the bond market is tweeting like a canary right now.
People assume the FED just buys Treasuries forever, but thats not true all they did was monetize the debt and theyre about done if not already done.
They have a substantial amount on their balance sheet already and any small incremental move in interest rates severely impairs that balance sheet. So I suppose we are going to have to find buyers other than the Fed. The only way I see that happening is with a massive amount of fear buying or interest rates rising.
No, thats not the point in monetizing the debt. They now own all the 'assets' for FREE so it doesnt matter what the price or interest rate is at all, the only point is now the FED/CB's own about every treasury and stock out there, enough for total control of it all.
what about QE unlimited Deus ex Machina Japanese Style
together with higher production costs for producers and manufacturers
as well as higher CPI consumer prices (Oil,Gas,Electricity,Food and Energy )
for every woo-man and mouse on this planet ?
there is No choice !
Inflation and higher prices are already here !
Americans just don't feel the Inflation yet....because
the US FED has been too busy keeping Interest-Rates at 0% Zero
and devalue the absolute shit out of the US Dollar,
(the so-called "reserve currency") it's fucked!
one day you should get out a bit more!
then you see what I mean by QE Inflation...
The US Fed's QE unlimited Stiimulus is causing Inflation and hardship all over the world already!
so please don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining !
wr;)
"Dallas Fed's Fisher Exhibits Peak Cognitive Dissonance And Self-Delusion"
Sorry. I was asleep at the wheel. What's up?
Oh, the Fed's Muppets are speaking out of both sides of their mouth again? That isn't Cognitive Dissonance. That is Orwellian Newspeak.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newspeak
You are so right.
And if anybody should know what Cognitive Dissonance is ,that's you CD. :>
Hell....I couldn't find it in the noon day sun if I tripped over it on my way to the Fed's discount window. :>)
"Peak Cognitive Dissonance" LOL
There is an unlimited supply of Cognitive Dissonance, if we look for it hard enough and are not afraid of using all the technology available to us to find it.
The real problem stems from two facts:
1. New supplies of Cognitive Dissonance are of consistently lower quality than early "light, sweet" Cognitive Dissonance. New supplies are dark and heavy. We do not get as much GDP growth-per-unit-bullshit from these new sources of CD.
2. Many nations in the developing world are beginning to consume much more of their own production of Cognitive Dissonance, thus rapidly decreasing the amount available for use in the US, just at a time when the US needs it more than ever.
I always though Cognitive Dissonance fits into the same category as Social Distortion.
Excuse me.......but I am not overweight.
Just big boned. Ask my wife.
My big bones are a glandular problem. ;)
The tanks are full? Really?! LOL!
I guess this partially explains the erratic behavior of stocks at open.
The algos are confused.
Maybe they should stop buying 50% of every Treasury auction so QE1 can actually end before telling us there will be no QE3.
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1997_2013USb_13s1li111mcn_H3t
Dallas Fed's Fisher Exhibits Peak Cognitive Dissonance And Self-Delusion
Chuckle :)
Good. Cheaper entry points on gold today.
Gold has a entry point for decades. It's the watching paint dry as you age before seeing any sort of profits after the tax man and every other sort of man got through with it and leave you with a buncha 1099's to haul to the HR Block next year.
Yea well golds 'entry point' just a few years ago was around $400 and everyone then said it was crazy to buy gold then too. But you have fun with your stocks, I guess thats what youre implying is better I dont know.
So...what you are saying is....that these two guys are the guys....behind the curtain...which is about to be swung wide to reveal...the wizard?
It stands to reason that these Fed quotes would emerge now...and last week...as there are so many FUBAR charts this morning. You can start with the CBOE VIX futures charts and work yourself backwards from there. AAPL of course, too. I caught an audio stream of J. Cramer on the BlowHorn [CNBC] this morning, and that stream literally sounded like eavesdropping on the day room of a mental institution, with conversation participants overrunning each other with "new and improved" reasons to buy THE ONE STOCK. In my mind, the chart on Bloomberg TV viewership must be spiking this morning.
The RoachMotel [SPY] was running at a LOL volume level of 4.5 million shares at market open
So...as soon as folks catch wind of how CBOE VIX futures are down 1.16 percent @ 21.32...after closing at 16.12 on Friday...ummm...unless everything is totally and completely broken...this should be a complete outside reversal day, and markets should sell off.
Of course, that is a pretty big "unless" up there.
Cdad tumbling down the rabbit hole....
Peak monetizing...now they can 'QE' to get some more stock irrational exuberance, which by the way no one is believing anymore because no one can afford stocks any longer...also add on another $1.50 to gas prices and interest rates rise blowing the whole free money ponzi to smithereens.
They will gun the indices up via the futures/ETFs during the day session like they have been rinsing and repeating for weeks now. Watch and see SPX close above 1410 today. After all, it is AAPL divi announcement day!
And that is why central planning always fails. Because a room of these terminally confused people sits down and determines the fate of the world based on their naive academic interpretation of what they perceive is reality.
I think they 'determine the fate of the world based on their view of what reality ought to be.' These folks are sharp enough to discern reality if they actually want to see it. They just don't.
Where the fuck does it end with this group of liars?
It doesn't...it just succumbs to the next group of liars.
Once they can tell me how they are going fund a 1.3 trillion dollar deficit then maybe I will believe them. Until then I will keep buying gold.
I hate to break it to you, Dr. E., but they are eventually going to pay for it with the gold you currently call "yours."
We're from the government and we're here to help ... you move your gold into the back of that there APC out front. Yes, that one with the license plate FDR-2012....
Hey, if they can dredge it up from the lake bed, more power to them.
Seems to me that Buck Fernankie might be willing to trade a market dive for sub-$3 gas. $5 gas hurts Obama's re-election chances more than Dow 10K IMO. Well see.
Tyler,
Are you saying the Fed members should not have seperate opinions..??
Tom Hoenig, the recent ex-Fed head in Kansas City frequently disagreed with the other Fed bank members in that he wanted to see interest rates rise.
They should of course have opinions. However, those for soundbite consumption purposes should be at least somewhat credible ones instead of categorically meaningless statements.
Incidentally, read this from the Fed December 2006 transcript on how the Fed was concerned over public voicing of statements by Fed presidents - source, starts bottom on page 115.
Thanks.
Just read it starting at the bottom of page 115 and see your point.
Interesting how often the Fed members use the phrase "Educating the public"...
Selling is the proper term.
Tyler, thanks again for everything you do here....!!!!!!!!!!
Very much appreciated.........
Notice Geithner's statement:
"One final point ... which is that we all have an interest in having this discussion take place below the radar screen of public debate until, again, we have a better sense of where consensus is going to lie. The more we move it into the public debate, the more risk we face ..."
Uh, is there any better way of expressing "covert QE" than this?
"ex-fed head" "disagreed" LOL
"ex-dead head"?
This is impossible. There's no such thing as an ex-deadhead.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deadhead
Oh, sorry. You said "ex-fed head". I didn't know the Fed had groupies.
Wait a minute..............do you mean Wall Street?
Actually, it's the other way around. The Fed-heads are Wall St. sycophants.
This is what the Feds will do with the printing presses. This way, banks....err I mean the NYFRB only has access to print, and can instantly release the fresh paper on the population, though all drones will be positioned only over banks.
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2012-03/19/pirate-bay-drones
O cmon, its not possible for them to stop buying bonds and printing money, there will be Qe3 , 4, 5 , 20, 50,.... until the feds charter is up or the system self destructs.
no problems have been solved, all this money printing has done is kicked the can down the road a little bit more (deal with it later and just keep everything functioning).
Whos going to buy bonds? Intereste rates will rise and the housing market will crash even more.
They dont want this because it would force the banks to either let the debts go, or reduce them to pennies on the dollar.
a million dollar home will sell for 100,000 by the end for 2015.
If bonds rise, the markets will tank because the bonds will become too attractive.
The only hope they have is to break up the large banks into smaller more managable groups and to pull back on all these wars.
Where are all the anti monopoly rules? wtf? how do you have 2 ~ 4 mega banks ? and not expect something to go terribly wrong.
And that is why central planning always fails. Because a room of these terminally confused people sits down and determines the fate of the world based on their naive academic interpretation of what they perceive is reality.
The key word there is naive. Even if (these) central planners were all non-academic Renaissance men possessed of the wisdom of Solomon, a handful of people can never allocate resources as well as billions of individual price signals can.
Fucking circus. The results of all of those are why they are passing things like NDAA, 30,000drones and we can take everything you own. I'll be amazed if they can hold this pile of shit together till the elections.
Yea....well THEN what? After they totaly crush the population and steal all their wealth then who do they rob and live off of as parasites? Themselves?
This is nothing but totaly sick perverted power mad lunatics going forth with a grand plan that is doomed to failure.
Oh I pretty much agree. Race to the bottom, some of us are going to get there first. We've already had a small taste of the good life if they think we're gona live like fly-swarmed diseased animals I have news for the assholes.
O cmon, their goal was clear this month, prop everything up as high as you can and let the momentum carry out in the markets till the elections.
Today the only segment thats leading is the financials (which everyone knows is a crock of shit).
The fed admits to buying stock, of who? we don't know, but my bet would be they are buying up large portions of the market to create percieved scarcity.... and raise prices. . . its another form of QE , the money goes into equities instead of government debt/spending.
Think about it like this.
Where are they going to get money to pay interest on 16 Trillion in the national debt?
Its impossible to raise taxes high enough.
That means more debt.
More debt means higher cost of paying the interest as it compounds and accrues.
Which means bigger loans to keep the ball rolling, Which means more govt spending (because they have no choice), and more inflation, which means higher commodity prices.
QE is BUILT IN to the system.
QE = the same shit as inflation.
Higher commodity prices, yea with everyone broke. Momentum on that $5 gas is looking pretty strong, Obamao's 41% approval is as good as it will get. HR 347 signed into law over the weekend look into it.
Dont forget HR 347 ObaMao signed over the weekend too, as its being nicknamed 'The Peacetime Martial Law Bill', any protest in the vicinity of a 'govt official' is a felony....assholes.
Personally I think they're so crazy that I could see nuclear war destroying the Earth and they'll be in a cave with huge piles of gold thinking they've finally won.
But Sheep dog I was assured that it is just a renewal of an EO 12919 signed in 1994. They told me that all is good and I have nothing to worry about.
sarc by the way for those of you who need to be told...you know who you are.
At least part of the difference is terminology, whatever they do in the future will not be called QEIII, a rose by any other name would smell just as sweet.
But whatever they call it their inflationary wiggle room is getting tighter with Israeli attack threats towards Iran pushing up oil prices. Implementing QEWhatever could put commodities, notably oil into orbit and bring in an R president who would take out Iran as his thank you to Bibi.
Just ignore these idiots. They do not have a clue what is going on. How many of them even buy their own groceries?
This market just feels different today. Maybe, just maybe....But until AAPL breaks, forget about it.
Dog bites man. Ho hum.
Why do we give a rat's ass what Goldman says? ZH only cares when they say: 1) gold is rising; or 2) more QE is coming. All other times they're the "vampire squid." Isn't that the real "cognitive dissonance" here?
Yes.
ZH is one of my very few destinations/options for more truth-than-fiction in a world full of propaganda, but even it is not entirely immune from cherry picking data, often from the same source, that it either villifies or lauds, based on whether it happens to produce a thesis at any given moment in time that supports the confirmation bias.
I've seen Jan Hatzius literally applauded and demonized by ZH in the same week.
Bernanke isn't going to expand the Fed's balance sheet (squabble about whether sterlized QE or ZIRP is QE all you wish; neither expands the Fed's balance sheet). Rates are headed higher. Stock buybacks, a rush to issue low yield corporate debt, and media headlines preparing the sheeple for the "you'd better refinance soon" are already being played out.
This "Fed" that is spoken of,should it not be "Federal" to be allowed to call itself the "Fed"
Is this some kind of trickery...?
Something don't smell right.
It is amazing that one small misguided group of people is allowed to elmininate the ability to invest in large asset markets (bonds and cash) for the purposes of creating yet another stock market bubble. If they had any sense, they should be scared shitless that the equity markets go straight up each and everyday. But,then again when it crashes down at the point of realization of capital misallocation once again, they will be onto their jobs at Goldman.
The German Central Bank faced similar problems post-WWI. The CB chief, Haver-somebody, said he kept printing b/c he saw only two options...."revolution or inflation" and he chose inflation.