David Rosenberg Breaks Down "The End Game"

Tyler Durden's picture

As always, just as the market is about to set off on yet another dead cat bounce courtesy of vapor volume and the lack of concerted selling (after all the Fed is front and center today which means nothing can possibly go wrong... at least until someone actually does some Mark to Market accounting on the left side of Bank of America's balance sheet), here comes David Rosenberg with a cup of very cold water, thrown right in the face of the misguided optimists who carry the deluded idea that this story could possibly have a Hollywood ending..

The End Game

 

Well, all the major averages have sliced through their respective 50- and 200- day moving averages and have radically undercut the June lows. And recall, QE2 started November 10, 2010. All the gains from QE2 are now gone. In fact, as it now stands, 20 months of hard earned capital appreciation in the S&P 500 has been wiped out in just three weeks ... bear markets are merciless; malevolent beasts. Global growth prospects are clearly being marked down — the action in the once-hot BRICs say it all as these areas are in full-fledged bear mode:

  • Brazil: -33%
  • Russia: -21.6%
  • India: -20%
  • China: -27%

The bond market also clearly has recession in its sights — none of this namby- pamby "35% odds" stuff out of Wall Street. The 10-year U.S. note yield closed at 2.31% in yesterday's session, undercutting last October's QE2-related low; dead air all the way down to 2%, which would be a test of the December 2008 trough.

 

In terms of the end game, it seems obvious now. If we can agree that the problem is excessive indebtedness at a whole bunch of levels (each country seems to have its own unique situation, for example the nonfinancial private sector credit outstanding relative to GDP in Spain is around 200%!) in many countries then there is really only one answer. This is not really about the EFSF, which helps reduce debt servicing costs but does not help alleviate the problem of overall debt burdens — that is just a swap. I think the ECB and the Fed (watch for some big changes in the press statement today), but especially the ECB, has to buy bonds en masse and reduce the amount of European debt outstanding and sharply boost the money supply. I believe that is the only way out right now. The central banks have to be the ones to absorb the debt and bring debt ratios down to more comfortable levels.

 

As for the Fed, when Ben Bernanke gave his testimony to Congress back on July 13th, the Dow was sitting at 12,492 (10,809 at yesterday's close), the 10-year was at 2.92% (2.31%) and oil was at $98/bbl ($81.21). Recall that back then, he did not shut the door on more Fed easing policy if the situation called for it. The only question is whatever it is the Fed decides to do, will it bolster aggregate demand any more than taking rates to 0% and embarking on two rounds of quantitative easing programs. These are the vagaries of a central bank burdened with the task of stimulating an economy saddled with so much debt and so many scars from years of real estate deflation and lingering joblessness.

 

The gold price seems to understand the end game, since it will involve an explosion in the monetary pace. The bond market is doing what it's doing— and now equities with a lag— because this asset class doesn't believe the next reflation wave will really do much to ignite confidence and spending, even if it manages to save the euro and the region's undercapitalized banks.

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gangland's picture

"Shit, I know that guy. He's a nihilist."

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea Donny, fucking nihilists.

JW n FL's picture

Former CIA operative reveals interrogation tactics

 

In his book, Carle also expands on gathering information on American citizens who opposed U.S. policies, namely the wars abroad, to use against them. Even though intelligence gathering of American citizens is illegal under American law, it was approved by high level officials in the White House during the Bush administration.


 

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/193164.html

mtomato2's picture

+1

That must be exhausting...

LawsofPhysics's picture

So what are you saying Dave, more QE or no QE?  Grow a pair and put your money where your mouth is.

alexwest's picture

started good.,, thne JUST TALKING HIS BOOK, REMEMBER ROSIE buy bonds, so now

he wants unload.. another stupid fast asshole

 

#

. I think the ECB and the Fed (watch for some big changes in the press statement today), but especially the ECB, has to buy bonds en masse and reduce the amount of European debt outstanding and sharply boost the money supply. I believe that is the only way out right now. The central banks have to be the ones to absorb the debt and bring debt ratios down to more comfortable levels.

##

 

hey stupid, if problem is too much debt how about stop issueing debt and at least start balancing   budgets.

 

junk

alx

dropdeadfed's picture

agreed.  why are any ideas, adopted or not, involve any of the bullshit that got us into this mess to begin with?  if the problem is too much debt and too much spending then the only logical solution would be to counter that with the exact opposite. 

Dugald's picture

Good grief man you just cannot put forth that kind of common sense logic......its, its, er..... Un-American?

The bad guys will mark you down for corrective re-training, or worse!

edotabin's picture

A bit esoteric here..... call me Upgrade!

espirit's picture

QE to infinity, until everyone is unemployed?

Epic fail.

slaughterer's picture

"It has leaked, and it ain't good."

RobD's picture

Heh, that comment would work in the Barny thread. lol

CrashisOptimistic's picture

That is, of course, the issue.

QE is not OFF ON.  There are magnitudes.  The Fed might act, but do little.  It might act, and do a lot.  It might act, and do something disliked.

It's not zero - one.

pesamystik's picture

Am I remembering wrong, or didn't Rosie throw in the towel when the DOW was at 12700? He is a great contraion indicator. Yeah, if the market didn't trade entirely on intervention, of course he would be right everytime, but he's always betting against central bankers, and that's why he's always wrong. They'll put another 40 trillion into this shitshow, just watch.

SheepDog-One's picture

Hes always wrong, until he's suddenly right. Yea while everyone is now conditioned and convinced 'the game' is to just perpetuate the Ponzi markets forever, nearly everyone misses thats not the game at all, but a sudden collapse is the game. The 'central bankers' game isnt ever more bailouts, its to take over everything into a 1 world bank and 1 world currency. The game isnt perpetuating the Ponzi to infinity at all, its making everyone believe that is the game.

SheepDog-One's picture

Misguided over-optimism, bitchez. 

Hedgetard55's picture

I called Ben this morning. He said no QE until Jackson's Corn Hole. He said more pain to come in order to make sure the bond auctions go off well. Said he loaded up on shorts this morning.  Guess I should have said something earlier to you guys. My bad.

SheepDog-One's picture

Ben only cares about his POMO bonds, more wash, rinse, and repeat to equities in store. Before any 'QE' talk drops the DOW will be well below 10,000.

Corn1945's picture

Why do the clowns (Rosenberg included) refuse to allow the debt to default?

alexwest's picture

cause he keep bonds + gold..
alx

Smiddywesson's picture

They won't allow cascading defaults across all countries because then they would be the losers.  They want to get the public to pay for it, so they have to kick the can and amass gold.  When they have all the gold and stop holding the prices down, one tiny speck will buy your whole net worth and the banks and soverign nations will be solvent.

Initially at least, the entry into a gold standard will place all of the wealth and power back into the hands of the governments and the banks, because they will have all the gold.  The public will be paupers. 

tsx500's picture

so then,  what happens to joey sixpack's small stash of gold eagles ?    will there be a black market ? 

Rainbow Randolph's picture

I'm a bit of an amateur, but I'm wondering if it is possible for them to do that.  They suppress gold and silver prices by selling paper gold and silver... If they drive the price down, and then gather actual gold and silver to themselves, will they not then always still owe their certificate holders more gold and silver than they physically have?  Could they really stiff all those certificate holders while they still have any physical metals left?

MsCreant's picture

Happens all the time in bankruptcy. It is the definition of a default, I owe you x, but I can't pay you x. You are stuck with less, or nothing because I don't have it. Word is they are paying up to 30% over, in cash, when it comes time to take physical delivery. They technically are already defaulting. The joke is that is now easy money.

I googled this for you. The silver bears are cute and their calls have played out pretty well. Try to see them all. There is a series of 7 of them so far. They break it down pretty simple.

Silvergoldsilver is their website, but I could not find the first video there so I went to youtube instead.

http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=silver+bears&aq=0&oq=silver+bea

 

 

JuicedGamma's picture

Fear of QE3 is levitating us.

hedgeless_horseman's picture

Why should Ben pay while he can get it for free?

 

Cleanclog's picture

New jobs in America will be government pays us to consume.  Tax robots to pay for it all. Tax on the answering machines and menu models.  Tax on all those productivity improvements through machines.  As humans become more obsolete for production and service provision, we have become necessary for consumption.  Change of model.

DosZap's picture

Clenclog,@14:07

there is a Bill right now trying to get heard, that will tax EVERY bank transaction made.

Debit card?1%,checks, 1% ,deposits 1%,withdrawals 1%,credit card use 1%..........................

A 1% FEE tacked onto ANY and EACH transaction that involves a BANK.

Stop and think about that, EVERY use, all.

MsCreant's picture

Gone--->USA

Gone--->Independently owned and operated Banks

Enter the seamless, perfect, Borg entity--->The United Banks of the Americas.

To the rest of the world: "Resistance is futile, you will be assimilated."

Milestones's picture
Learn the Truth about H.R. 4646

An internet rumor has been circulating that claims that I introduced a bill titled H.R. 4646 along with Senator Tom Harkin and that it would levy a 1 percent tax on every financial transaction including credit card transactions and even social security deposits.  This is patently false. H.R. 4646 was introduced by Rep. Chaka Fattah of Pennsylvania, and has no cosponsors. I oppose this bill because it wrongly taxes all financial transactions, rather than just focusing on the Wall Street speculators who got us into this current economic mess. Americans making normal day-to-day transfers of money should not be subject to a tax on those transactions.

These days there are innumerable rumors circulating around the internet.  Both Factcheck.org, Snopes and Politifact Oregon have debunked this myth, with Politifact Oregon calling it a “pants on fire lie”

http://politifact.com/oregon/statements/2010/oct/01/chain-email/e-mail-claims-defazio-wants-tax-transactions/

http://factcheck.org/2010/09/1-transaction-tax/

http://www.snopes.com/politics/taxes/debtfree.asp

 

You can also go to www.thomas.gov to verify who introduced or has cosponsored any given bill.

I did introduce a very different bill, H.R. 4191, the Let Wall Street Pay for the Restoration of Main Street Act. My bill would asses a minuscule ¼ of one percent tax on speculative Wall Street trading and an infinitesimal two hundredth of one percent on exotic derivatives.  This tax is specifically targeted at high volume speculative traders on Wall Street, and would have no impact on average investors and pension funds. Under this bill the speculation tax would be exempted or refunded from tax-favored retirement accounts, mutual funds, education savings accounts, health savings accounts, and the first $100,000 of transactions annually.

Again, I do not support Rep. Fattah’s H.R. 4646. The bill that I introduced, the Let Wall Street Pay for the Restoration of Main Street Act, is a minuscule and narrowly targeted speculation tax that will only hit Wall Street speculators.

// www.thomas.gov to verify who introduced or has cosponsored any given bill.\r\nI did introduce a very different bill, H.R. 4191, the Let Wall Street Pay for the Restoration of Main Street Act. My bill would asses a minuscule ¼ of one percent tax on speculative Wall Street trading and an infinitesimal two hundredth of one percent on exotic derivatives.  This tax is specifically targeted at high volume speculative traders on Wall Street, and would have no impact on average investors and pension funds. Under this bill the speculation tax would be exempted or refunded from tax-favored retirement accounts, mutual funds, education savings accounts, health savings accounts, and the first $100,000 of transactions annually.\r\nAgain, I do not support Rep. Fattah’s H.R. 4646. The bill that I introduced, the Let Wall Street Pay for the Restoration of Main Street Act, is a minuscule and narrowly targeted speculation tax that will only hit Wall Street speculators.", updated: "2011-07-22 21:52:04" }, {button: true}); var id = "sharethis_" + obj.idx; var x = document.getElementById(id); obj.attachButton(x); ]]>

  milestones

FLIP THAT BOND's picture

I'm ready to load into SLV call options if the Fed announces QE3 in a few minutes, but I'm not counting on them doing so.  My bet is QE3 will be announced in a few days when the Dow goes below 10,000 and cries for Fed invtervention grow louder.  Stocks and SLV decline in the next few days and then when QE3 is announced, stocks stop falling and SLV promptly goes to $75.

SheepDog-One's picture

Excellent post, Im in agreement totaly.

HellFish's picture

Agreed here too.  They'll run to the rescue next week with an unscheduled printing.  Has more impact and more need after a week or so of more pain.

Smiddywesson's picture

Agreed.  Silver has been compressed like a spring and will break out soon.  It is an excellent buying opportunity.

Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

QE until 2-3 billion are skin and bones (some just bones). Inflation > price controls > shortages > forced decrease in commodity demand.

koot's picture

Frankly I don't think David said a damn thing, except for Namby-Pamby which pretty much describes what he said and has been saying. 

SheepDog-One's picture

Coffee napkin meanderings. Yea yea we know Rosie...so what?

koot's picture

David is a big disappointment in thinking.

Arch Duke Ferdinand's picture

*****Arch Duke Ferdinand

Leaving for a State Visit w/ Obama/Obozo/Nero/Teleprompter.
Planning an open landau ride down Pennsylvania Ave.
Nothing can go wrong.....

http://seenoevilspeaknoevilhearnoevil.blogspot.com/2011/01/archduke-ferd...

******Six Volcanic Plumes sighted in California and Nevada.....

http://seenoevilspeaknoevilhearnoevil.blogspot.com/2011/08/six-volcanic-...

******Pacific Northwest experiencing Earthquakes.....
http://seenoevilspeaknoevilhearnoevil.blogspot.com/2011/08/pacific-north...

*****OT:Film Festival Short

The Creek...Knock your head and see what happens.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLRAqfN48zo&feature=feedbul

Piranhanoia's picture

The plumes were weather events, happen every day.  The Pac NW always has earthquakes, always has. Had a 9 about 1700 near Seattle.  You may want to check out some of these on Snopes or science sites.  Those plumes were odd only because someone said they started at volcanic areas,  but they didn't.

when they blow, nothing you can do. Rather be in earthquake country than tornado alley. 

BORT's picture

OT, but Fidelity cannot push electronic orders to the floor.  Great, that's all I needed.  Can't get fixed through reps either

FLIP THAT BOND's picture

I'm ready to load into SLV call options if the Fed announces QE3 in a few minutes, but I'm not counting on them doing so.  My bet is QE3 will be announced in a few days when the Dow goes below 10,000 and cries for Fed invtervention grow louder.  Stocks and SLV decline in the next few days and then when QE3 is announced, stocks stop falling and SLV promptly goes to $75.

Piranhanoia's picture

I don't care about more predictions, because the ones that have come true are based on fundamentals and chaos.  The next are going to be pure chaos. 

SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, the one thing we can be assured of going forward is total chaos.

Lets say the free money junkies get dropped $1 trillion from Bernank's chopper...OK then what? Dollar tanks, gold and silver fly, stocks and bonds go into sugar comas. Whatever!

Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

 

There the word chaos is a descriptor of our inability to perceive cause and effect. Such terms denote nothing but the distorted mirror of our own understanding. 

 

lamont cranston's picture

QE3, QE4, ad infinitum. Welcome to the Weimar Republik of Amerika.