David Rosenberg Explains What (If Anything) The Bulls Are Seeing
While we have long asserted that any attempt to be bullish this market (and economy) by necessity should at least involve the thought experiment of eliminating such pro forma crutches as trillions in excess liquidity from the Fed, not to mention direct and indirect intervention by the central planners in virtually all asset classes, which in turn drives frequent periods of brief decoupling between various geographies and asset classes (which always converge) and thus economic performance (because as Bernanke will tell you gladly, the economy is the market), an exercise which would expose a hollow facade, a broken market and an economy in shambles, in never hurts to ask just what, if anything, do the bulls "see" and how do they spin a convincing case that attempts to sucker in others into the great ponzi either voluntarily, or like in China, at gun point. Alas, our imagination is lacking for an exercise such as this, but luckily David Rosenberg has dedicated his entire letter to clients from this morning precisely to answer this question. So for anyone who is wondering just what it is that those who have supposedly "climbed the wall of worry" see, here is your answer.
From David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff
It never hurts to keep an open mind — I say that as I debate Wells Capital's famously bullish strategist Jim Paulsen at a CFA event — and tip your hat to the other side of the argument.
When asked if there is anything — even one thing! — that I can identify that is market-positive, what would it be?
Well, it's certainly not any shift in view over the economy. The leading indicators of activity are not behaving nearly as well as the coincident or lagging indicators have been of late. Indeed, averaging out the wiggles and real GDP growth, at best, was 1.7% in 2011, far short of the 3% advance reading in 2010. And we head into 2012 with many imbalances yet to be fully addressed and a variety of headwinds, none stronger than the looming hit to exports, manufacturing activity and profits from even a mild European recession
What has changed is valuation and the high-bar regarding investor expectations.
Let me explain.
The story for 2011 was one of P/E multiple contraction as risk aversion set in. The year ended with operating EPS growth in high-single-digit terrain, which was slower than the string of double-digit gains since the profit recovery began nearly three years ago, but positive nonetheless. What held the market back was the multiple, which contracted roughly 3 points on the year — and remember: every multiple point equates to nearly a 10-point shift in the S&P 500. This often counts more than earnings do when formatting your targets for the year. In the end it is the direction and the multiple that investors were willing to pay for that caused so many pundits to be so wrong last year.
So we have a situation now where the trailing P/E ratio is sitting at 13x. That may not be a classic trough by any means, but only 20% of the time in the past quarter century has the multiple been this low. Okay — something to consider.
Now, trailing P/E is the proverbial "bird in the hand" whereas forward multiples are "hit and miss" and subject to the vagaries of analyst earnings estimates, which have been declining in dribs and drabs for the past three-to-six months. But as it now stands, on this basis, the multiple is now just a snick below 12x. In the past quarter century, we only saw one other time when it was this low on a one-year "forward" basis, and it was the first quarter of 1988. A year later, the S&P 500 rallied 15%. Not my call, but something to at least mull over and debate.
Now we must keep in mind that valuation is not a timing device. If all you did was focus on such metrics, you would have missed out on the final three years of the late-1990s tech boom. That said, a respect of valuations will also help keep you out of trouble, as we saw following the tech wreck and the bust of the housing and credit bubble seven years hence.
But we do understand that P/E ratios at current low levels do serve up a certain degree of confidence (a source of some comfort, if you will) that there is some downside protection to the overall market here. While I'm still on the cautious side, I do see the case for why the floor may be higher than it was before. Of course, that is due to valuation metrics. The key going forward will be how earnings perform — and I'm not expecting any growth this year. In fact, we could see a contraction, based on where margins are (60-year highs) and the impact of slower global growth and the stronger U.S. dollar on foreign-sourced revenues (40% of the pie).
The next question is whether the P/E multiple can expand in 2012. As was the case in 2011, in a year when profit growth was positive but the broad market flat, the multiple may yet again hang in the balance.
Well, it may pay to assess what the factors were in 2011 that caused the P/E multiple to shrink. I can think of a few. The ECB pulled a 2008-style bonehead move and raised rates to combat inflation (surreal). China was draining liquidity as it moved to rein in a potentially destabilizing uptrend in inflation — with its stock market and the emerging market space taking it on the chin. All the while, the Fed more or less stood on the sidelines for much of the year, notwithstanding Operation Twist and the verbal pledge to keep the funds rate at the floor through to mid-2013 at the earliest.
If we look at what could possibly go right, we have the Chinese central bank now easing policy — that is a shift from a year ago. If inflation there falls further, which has already slowed from the 6.5% peak to sub-5% (we get the key December CPI data-point later this week), then the latitude for more policy stimulus will become even greater. This is why the Chinese stock market has rallied more than 6% in the past four days — it is sniffing something out here. Remember that Chinese stocks lead commodities. Furthermore, the Canadian stock market, which turned in a rare underperformance last year relative to the U.S., has about half its market capitalization in basic materials.
We also have the ECB, with a new chief, not only cutting rates but in some sense going even further than the Fed did. Perhaps not in the way of non-sterilized purchases of government bonds, but the move toward lending to the banks for three-year terms with the junkiest of collateral (one-third more products that the banks can now put up on the central bank balance sheet) has dramatically reduced tail-risks (a French bank or two would have gone down absent this ECB intervention) and we see that now in terms of Libor rates easing.
Furthermore, Eurozone politicians were completely in denial this time last year, believing that the problems would stay "contained" to Greece. Over the last few months of 2011, a view was building in the markets that either Germany was going to exit the euro area or kick Greece out. So far, neither seems likely.
Merkel and Sarkozy seem dedicated on using the crisis as a way to foster more integration — with a common fiscal policy — not less. Of course, it remains to be seen how many of the other members will opt for German-style austerity at a time of intensifying recession pressures. But this is a problem of their own making since it was their decision to load up on debt to fund their welfare states, and the move to fiscal probity is probably the lowest cost strategy for them (us too). And Merkel came right out and said earlier this week that Germany wants Greece to remain in. So...in a sea of uncertainty, at least we have more clarity now that the Eurozone experiment is about to disintegrate in a destabilizing fashion.
Finally, based on the latest comments from two Fed bank presidents (Dudley and Williams) there seems to be some momentum building for a QE3 program out of the Fed.
What is different about 2012 is that while there are many headwinds, global policy is moving into a higher gear. We have no doubts that the beta-junkies will go to town on the prospect of a "coordinated" global stimulus cycle. This is what the market has been feeding on repeatedly since the March 2009 lows. It's called government mixed juice.
What also is different is the level of expectations. We went into 2011 with everyone geared up for 3% real U.S. GDP growth and we will be lucky to get 1.7% when the final results for the year come in. Now the consensus is much closer to 2%. While growth may in fact come in softer than that, we do start the year with more realistic expectations than was the case 12 months ago. The next few weeks will be key as Q4 earnings come out. Keep in mind that the bottom-up estimates right now have penned in a sequential quarter-on-quarter contraction, which has only happened 2% in the past 25 years outside of recessions. There may still be one, but it didn't start in Q4 of 2011.
Meanwhile, the survey data continue to flash a green light. The NFIB small business sentiment index improved in December for the fourth month in a row to 93.8 from 92 in November. This is the best reading in 10 months, though the components were not universally positive.
For example, the job openings subindex dipped to 15 from 16. Hiring plans also dipped one point to 6. Moreover, the index assessing whether small businesses added jobs in the past three months edged down to 1 from 2 in November, not exactly in line with those booming results from the ADP survey.
Capex spending plans stagnated at 24. The good news for bonds at least was the subdued inflation readings. The index measuring pricing power stayed at zero and the percent raising wages was stuck at 10. Even better were the forward-looking "planned" figures. Intentions to raise prices dipped from 15 to 14 and plans to boost wages slipped to 5 from 9 to stand at the lowest level since last January. In fact, the share of respondents citing inflation as their top worry fell from 6% to 5% (it has been sliced in half since last May) — it hasn't been this low since early last year.
A bright spot was in the credit measures; the thaw continues as the index measuring how tough it is to secure financing receded from 10 to 8 in December — the lowest since June 2008. One of the most acute concerns evident in the survey are taxes, with the share saying this is first and foremost on their minds rising to 21% from 19% in November and 16% three months ago. Just wait until the realization sets in that President Obanna is going to remain in the White House and the Bush-era tax cuts go the way of the Do-Do bird by the end of 2012 (not to mention the health care tax on "high-income" earners).
The JOLTS data (Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey) more or less confirmed that the labour market has less pep in it than many believe (but consistent with the aforementioned NFIB employment readings). Job openings actually declined 63k in November on top of a 153k plunge the prior month. Hirings did rebound 107k but that only recouped the like-sized decline in October. Finally, firings came to 96k and belie the recent downtrend we have seen in the jobless claims numbers.
(12 votes)
»
- Login or register to post comments
- 30205 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
Similar Articles You Might Enjoy:
- Rosenberg Goes On Offensive, Mocks Birinyi, Tells Koolaid Guzzlers To "Put It In Their Pipe And Smoke It"
- David Rosenberg Shares The "Lament Of A Bear"
- Earnings Update: Ex-Financials There Are No Upside Revenue Surprises
- A View On Optimistic Groupthink
- Strategic Investment Conference: Luminaries In Finance Presentation Series: Part 2 - David Rosenberg
I like reading David even if he is mostly wrong about the market directions, he should stop using real facts and figures since they no longer matter
Damned if you do...
Greece, which is a time bomb set to ignite the nuclear system itself, but seems to have been "forgotten about" where market participants are concerned. Their short term debt is trading at interest rates between 300-400%. They are flat assed broke and the market has already deemed them so.
The problem is twofold, first the market IS paying attention to because it is Euro negative which temporarily points the finger away from the U.S.
If Greece really does "technically" default, the Eurozone is toast which it is anyway with Italy, Spain, Portugal... they will all default. The Euro was clearly not well thought out politically or financially.
Secondly and most importantly, which of course is not gatting much press are all the CDS insurance that has been sold. Greece CANNOT be allowed to technically default and trigger the "insurance" payouts. Were this to happen, there could be 5, 10, 20 defaults by "insurers" just like AIG who cannot pay.
If the CDS is not triggered ...it should have already triggered at least 10 months ago during the first bailout... then the owners of CDS, many who have "hedged" their portfolios with this bogus insurance will not be paid. Many institutions will become insolvent ...as if they are not already... by the simple fact that they own Greek debt that has dropped already 80+% in value with no compensation on the other side where they expected their CDS "insurance" to pay.
CDS CANNOT pay.
For that matter, how funny is it that the U.S. which IS the reserve currency has CDS in the $ Trillions written against debt.
Greece alone will blow the system. Look at the U.S. ... exponential overkill. The "writers" of Greek CDS do not have the capital to pay on a default and the suckers who relied on the CDS payments need them to be made whole.
Can you say "damned if you do and damned if you don't"?
This is just one more black and white example as to why "mathematically" it is over and has been since late 2008 when central banks and treasuries decided to borrow, print and "save the world" for the time being.
How long is "the time being"?
The only correct move is not to play the game.
www.lemetropolecafe.com
Fine summary. I've been saying for a couple of years now, that some risks are simply not insurable, because if anyone has a claim, essentially everyone has a claim. It isn't only systemic risk, it is systemic mutually assured destruction..., coming soon to banks and nations near you.
Arbitrage as a form of Russian Roulette, Go Figure.
one might also quibble with the seeming comprehensiveness of a 25 year chart of trailing eps. seen in a larger context, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P/E_ratio, the period seems to have relatively high ratios and does contain the highest on record. as well, as 2008-2009 demonstrated, ratios can go up in recessions even if prices go down.
Good one Jeff. Picking 25 years is too small a window to look at where things could go. After the 29 crash PE's got to about 5. Huntsman had to review his model to include data from the depression in order to give him a better data set. Recency and availability effects mean we tend to only look at what is 'near' and memorable. I bet most of the BSD's on wall street are in their 30's and 40's so their whole world is bubble land.
K@
Excellent. Impressive. The comments on ZH are incredibly insightful. Thanks David.
I'm the only +1? David just eloquently described the dominoes falling. Maybe it was too long for most to read...
I was negative 30 yesterday.
Nice post David!
'The only correct move is not to play the game.'
This is the best advice I have read in a very long time. Eventually there will be a tipping point when a critical mass of people accept this, pick up their marbles (if they have any left), and go home. I joined the exodus of the rational (or broke) in the first week of October last and I won't be coming back.
Iran decided to not to play the petrodollar game anymore. You will see what happens....
this is a "fine summary" indeed. of course the USA did pay the CDS...back in 2008. Just ask Hank Greenberg. The US taxpayer had to spend tens of billions just so his company could be made whole with Goldman Sachs. In Europe we're talking an actual country...and Europe will not pay??!! I know if i were a holder i'd be apoplectic! Anywho..."they're sovereigns for a reason"...and one of those reasons? "they don't have to pay." C'est la vie. I would not hold my breath that this will change...we are told "we will know" of course.
Gerald Celente...
http://radio.goldseek.com/nuggets.php
...Ranting ... Frothing at the mouth for 20 minutes.
No eye strain like I got from reading Rosie.
The only correct move is not to play the game.
Sage advice for the times DP.
ori
ORI:
An old Chilcoton rancher I knew up in the high country told me a long time ago...
"Mess with the bull and you get the horn."
A sign on the dirt road into the valley that you would like...
http://cache.virtualtourist.com/6/2234686-The_sign_says_all_Chilko_Lake.jpg
http://knowbc.com/var/knowbc/storage/images/books/encyclopedia-of-bc/n/nemiah-valley/gallery/nemiah1/34606-1-eng-GB/nemiah1.jpg
I declare you a "Full-Retard." Rosie called the Treasury rally duration play when ZH was mocking him on the topic. And he has still been consistently bullish on PM's. I bet you choke on Theta for a living Sparky. Because you obviously know nothing about financial markets or David Rosenberg. And no need to thank me for being more gentle than necessary.
"Man, just cause it's a theme song don't make it not true"
"even if he is mostly wrong about the market directions"
In fairness, I dispute that. He guided clients into Treasuries over the past 2 years which was not a bad place to be.
two words - dollar destruction. SPX will only crash if priced in gold.
And fiat (ya know, the stuff they give you when you sell your equities) will only be worth having when the SPX crashes.
It's like trying to piss with morning wood.
The secret is to master the hand stand! Then, no problems with bladder depletion when the urethra is a bit stiff.
Maybe that is the secret to making money these days; learn to stand on one's head while knee deep in fecal matter?
It’s time for downtrodden equity investors to get organized. The sluggish pace of this economic recovery is very concerning, and I personally believe that there is the very real possibility of a double dip recession. It is out of deep concern for the health of the American economy and its loyal investors that I propose the creation “The American Union of Equity Investors”. This union will be open to any and all investors in US and global equities, from analysts at top tier investment banks to independent value investors. The Union will be focused primarily on lobbying for more fiscal and monetary easing but it will also work to promote public awareness of the need for monetary and fiscal stimulus. Don’t forget, this is YOUR Federal Reserve and it is up to everyone to make sure that Bernanke is serving YOU.
"Don’t forget, this is YOUR Federal Reserve"
If by that you mean the Rockefeller's and the Rothschild's Federal Reserve? Then you're finally right for a change.
Don't forget the Windsors. Besides we do we need to pay the Fed at all when the treasury can coin our own money? Seems rather stupid.
No, the fed is owned by shareholders, who have never been disclosed (though it is pretty easy to guess)
"who have never been disclosed" - So unless anyone can buy those shares, you have no fucking point.
No, my point is that no one can claim to know who owns the fed, and if they did, there would be no way to verify it.
I don't know how that was not clear to you, unless you're a fucking moron.
repost, but relevant: Who owns the Federal Reserve?
You are a fucking idiot. Just because YOU don't know who owns the Fed, doesn't mean other people don't know. Check out BB's link, it spells it out quite clearly.
Do a little research before you open your mouth and you'll be less likely to get bitch slapped with the truth.
Haha, excellent, thanks for replying on behalf of many a reader here!
Thanks MDB big green for ya! Much better effort than your last couple, satire but not too much.
I hit the green arrow for ya. That made me laugh. I like to laugh.
Why, he's even proposing solutions now.
Serious troll, ftw!
'Bernanke is serving YOU!'....a big shit sandwich.
The BULLS see exactly what the doctor that does your colonoscopy sees...
Nothing much else to see when your head is buried that far up your a55
MDB: You sure are one dedicated troll
Little Panic in half of the EU: The german bullion sellers (the best ones, as VAT is much lower there) have already finished their "quotas" of silver, platinum and palladium they can ship to other EU countries... as of january 10 !?!!!!!
Take a look of the type of message they mail you when you try to buy from their online shops:
http://argentofisico.blogspot.com/2012/01/gp-metallum-gia-esaurita-la-qu...
If I close my eyes and press my eyes with my thumbs, I see breasts surrounded by stars!
I'm going to try that but with breasts pressed against my eyes.
Wonder what I'll see, or feel?
Thumbs....with chewed nails.
What do you see when you don't close your eyes and you press your eyes with your thumbs?
An ophthalmologist.
Leprechauns riding skittle shitting unicorns
That was rich! +1
I'd rather open em and surround myself with stars' breasts.
meatloaf?
No, it doesn't. Clambake?
" DANTES INFERNO " , comes to mind. These ass hat traders are tying to " out perform" , yesterdays PONZI guidance, that get's lowered on a whim!
What about debt /GDP? What about swaps > LTRO EFSF IMF OIS? This picnic Just gets more " MUS- TURD" / lack of " KET-SUP"!!!
Everyone is now 'bullish' simply based upon the assumption the FED will step in and bail out their bets! And thats ALL!
The bulls are bullish because they know Ben Bernanke will bail them out.
Fortunately, Bernanke's ass smells like roses.
Without QE, the markets would be at zero.
Plus we'd be paying less than a buck for a gallon of gas.
The deflationary pressures are that extreme.
what's a fair PE multiple for a bankrupt nation?
probably 13-15x
Make it as fair as you like...with or without FAS 157
How quickly we forget. That WAS a tipping point.
The above is coming from someone who was gloating just a few months ago that he was "99% certain" we were heading for a double-dip recession.
God bless the economics profession ...blowing with the wind since 1,000 BC, never seeing the hurricane about to hit until it blows away their consensus averaging charts
Right, we didnt get the recession, we just skipped right over that and went to 100% debt/GDP depression bankruptcy.
I think Rosenberg is still 95% certain we're heading for recession. His comments were directed toward the markets, not the economy. He was asking the rhetorical question, "Is there anything positive we can say about markets?"
His conclusion: "Well, P/E's have been lower, but they're not insanely optimistic any more."
That's hardly a reversal of his position.
I'm selectively bullish on a few cdn companies. Even some tsx-v. The american situation is different. There's something about all these data points that doesn't translate into real life. All I can see in 2012 is Obama sucking the aids infected cocks of about 40 million welfare idiot assholes until they come votes on his face. Interesting times down there. When you watch those videos of black snap card holding inbred fanatical consumers stomping each other to get at a new pair of air jordan 'nigger up' shoes it's hard to feel any sympathy for them. In the end you just know Obama will get down on his hands and knees and personally suck and fuck these people like they've never been fucked before. And before the door closes behind him at the whitehouse he'll kick them out without even letting them shower. I don't know what happens to all of you guys that don't let Obama suck you off. Maybe you'll all get a consolation teddy bear or a cupcake. It's a tough one.
The only 'long term investment' I'm making is in Saskatechewan. Regina and Moose Jaw to be specific.
Wecome to China! Better yet! ( Welcome to the #'s game). What doesn't work this week, will be up/down graded next week, to fit within a profile.
The TRUE unemployment rate in the United States is 18 %.
prairie i don't think i'm alone in saying Rankin Inlet sounds more like your speed, seriously please consider a permanent move there, the fresh air will do you good.
he is hedging his "reputation" here in case something happends contradicting to what he said earlier.
Market has consistently confounded bulls and bears. Everytime everyone gets bullish, the market gets slammed, and everytime everyone gets bearish and the market goes up.
I sense that the vast majority of the investment community is jumping on the bull train right now. That means we have less than 2 weeks left in this up move.
This market is like the Seinfeld episode where George finally tires of everything going wrong and decides to do the exact opposite and magically his life flourishes. Just when you feel a bullish feeling coming over you, sell short.
Hence the Aud/Usd. The bath water is getting luke warm though!
I think the analysis is wrong. I think it's hft money end of repo 105 , and the hft's want to bring in the dumb money. I have no problem buying at all but I like a good entry point, and four weeks of up, well above and good entry trend point isn't something I am going to follow. I've done that before dn when the boys sell off I get screwed. So I'm let some stuff ride, and wait things out. in the past montyh emerging markets have gone from 36.50, to 39.50 today. that's a good gain for the time. plus we had a huge ass gap in emerging markets up that should fill. the s and p 500 god only knows, because it's so fucked up. the rest of the world sell off three to four days, and the s and p doesn't even do a day? Huh. Please. David is old fashioned, and like most pundits wants to use logic, but tha't now what runs the market anymore.
plus the market is heading almost vertcal, which is also
Bill gross? The Iguana of the bond world is discussing ( high risk) ?
Doesn't anyone take profits anymore? You would think there woiuld be some selling pressure at some point.
Selling gets you placed on the terrorist watch list. Most people trying to avoid that.
FUCK THAT SHIT! Be your own man, and read between the lines! All these guys coming home from war want FREEDOM! The public supports them! American Spring!!!
It's hard to set a " Stop Loss" , On " Nest Eggs"!
Look at the daily volumes and run for the hills.
Pricing happens on the fringes and can be manipulated to some degree (it's like someone coming into a neighborhood and over paying for a mc mansion - all the house prices go up but the gain is a mirage).
HFTs are doing the same thing but the core is hollowing out - volumes are dropping, which means liquidity is drying up, which means the fringe buying is reaching its limits, which means the endgame is upon us...
Watch the volumes it will tell us everything we need to know!!
>75% of market volume is computers batting the ball back and forth waiting for a human to be dumb enough to ask for a game. The smart people are long gone. The half a brain people are also finally gone. Money trapped, forgotten or merely neglected and languishing in equity allocations in 401ks is the only thing resembling a human presence in the market.
P/Es are low because the market knows thay are artificially-fiscally propped, with no substantial deleveraging going on, temporary in their nature. Actually P/Es will become exceptionally high at current prices once the house of cards implodes, which will happen later this year.
Yes. What would P/Es look like with normal interest rates and wage pressure? Wait until Obummer Care takes another chunk out of everyone's ass.
It seems like the market is ramping on QE3 hopes. The incoming Fed Presidents are setting a dovish tone.
The New FOMC members are Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pinalto, Richmond Fed President Jefferey Lacker, Atlanta Fed President Dennis P. Lockhart, and San Francisco Fed President John C. Williams. Lacker holds hawkish views, while the other three, Lockhart, Williams, and Pinalto are doves.
Recently, Williams and Pinalto seemed in favor of more easing. Neither explicitly said that the Fed needs to buy more bonds to push the central bank’s balance sheet beyond the nearly $3 trillion in securities it currently holds. But both made clear that they supported the Fed’s prior attempts to juice the economy and that the employment picture will take years to fix.
The first test of the new mix of FOMC voting members will be in two weeks. Ultra low 0% rates have already been promised until mid 2013 and operation twist is also in progress. With tightening being out of the question, we will have wait to see if the new board sees further easing as a solution to speed up the economy.
TheSilverJournal.com
So if the Hedge just turned 3 and Tyler has been a member for 2 years and 33 weeks, who or what filled that gap for the other 19 weeks ?
that didn't occur to you 2 days ago?
I never paid attention to Tyler's profile.
it's a great read!
Read Books Online Free: Fight Club
rosie is good here, and uses 'flashing green light' for the bullishness of TPTB to feed the markets "government mixed juice" as silver is bid $30.02!
take yer silver and flee!!! flee!!!
Thought he and ZeroHedge was bought and recently purchased by the ESF...no? My mistake. lol
That's funny. Don't know why somebody junked you.
@Dr :ZH started out on a different server thingy, I imagine that's got something to do with it.
3 years counting the blogspot site preceding this one
I think David just made a call to the upside. Interesting. I just got back from Home Depot where I had a hard time finding a parking space. It was like a zoo, in the middle of the day on a on a Wed. Go figure. Who knows maybe those dollars are beginning to trickle through the mainstream economy? Hold your breath and squeeze tight.
Most likely its gift return traffic.
I assume your comment is based on " Beige Book"?
No sir, it wasn't returns. I have no doubt that we have and are facing some severe structural issues relating to our economy. I have wondered though, from time to time, if the main stream media and certain blogo spheres haven't been overstating how strained the consumer actually is, despite the unemployment numbers. The reason I say this is that the malls, restaurants (fast food and sit down), home improvement stores, liquor stores, wall-mart stores, target stores, to name a few seem to always be busy here in Dallas, Texas.
I didnt even get all the way to the end of your comment and I had already concluded you lived in the south central part of the USA.
It's all those folks not paying mortgages anymore who are keeping the economy going, god-bless 'em.
Try stopping by at 6am when they open. Used to be you would see 4 or 5 contractors gearing up for the day, all lined up at the contractor checkout, now most of the time I'm the only one there.
Really? Im across the street from an HD, I count 23 cars.