David Rosenberg On The Insanity Of Fixing Excess Leverage With More Leverage, And The Relentless Euro Rumormill

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Wed, 10/19/2011 - 12:55 | 1789406 FunkyMonkeyBoy
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Too much common sense in this article. Articles of this type no longer have a place in this brave new world.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:25 | 1789507 Unprepared
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On The Insanity Of Warning of Excess Leverage Addiction With More Common-sense Talk

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:34 | 1789539 Hard1
Hard1's picture

but...but...but...I can always pay my debts with new (larger) ones...can't I?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:46 | 1789567 tickhound
tickhound's picture

no problem...

with some voluntary compliance, working retirement, debt reduction through credit expansion, and every other feel good pain.... it all ends up in that sanitary landfill called growth.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:47 | 1789588 redpill
redpill's picture

To paraphrase and summarize the article:

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:08 | 1789678 Surly Bear
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John Law called...he said you're pretty much fucked.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:14 | 1790191 Crisismode
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Let's hear it for "a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

 

The sooner the Euro is revealed for the Naked Emperor that it is, the better.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:31 | 1790228 nantucket
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aha, another reader of Von Mises.  That may be his most prescient quote.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 14:04 | 1794049 glenlloyd
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Debt is nothing more than a palatable way of saying someone else has a claim to your future earnings.

We've pushed the claim to such an enormous size and out to such an extent that nothing can be done to correct it.

There really is only one way that this will end, Mises was right.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:41 | 1789832 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Ah, the unspoken premise of Keynesism - debts never have to repaid, only rolled over into bigger debts. You have learned your lessons well, padawan.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:49 | 1789598 Taterboy
Taterboy's picture

This Rosenberg guy sounds real smart but if he was REALLY smart he'd tell us who's going to win Dancing With The Stars! You know, important stuff.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:35 | 1790237 nantucket
nantucket's picture

yeah, certain of my relatives know every detail of that show, or the kardashians, or the bachelor, etc., but have no effin clue who their state senators are, or their congressman, or what the fed does, or why it matters.   and they bitch and moan about the current situation.  you can't make this stuff up.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 12:58 | 1789414 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

quick get me a liar loan with a cash out so I can buy Appl on this dip! ;0)

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:01 | 1789427 The Axe
The Axe's picture

All true but computers do not give a rats ass....SP pushing against the high end of the range, computers say buy.....buy...buy....

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:48 | 1789590 candyman
candyman's picture

more accurately,  young kids using computers like PS3's, Fundamentals are not taught in college anymore...it's taken me years to change my investing habits and I fucking hate it.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:09 | 1789430 Manthong
Manthong's picture

"Groundhog Day bullshit"

Says it all..  Here, there and everywhere in the market and goverment.

Problem is that Groundhog's Day will likely suddenly be interrupted by Halloween.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:04 | 1789437 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Surprised Rosie did not comment about the recent accounting tricks showing up in US bank earnings.   I guess the focus of the report was just Europe.   

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:07 | 1789448 kengland
kengland's picture

It's not going to collapse on your request or Rosies. They have debt money and that is what the majority of the system works with. There's another few years of this EASY.

 

 

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 21:45 | 1791082 Element
Element's picture

Yes, the bank collapses have barely begun yet. There are at least 25,000 bank collapses to come over the next few years. This game can drag on and on ... except the unemployment is already getting very serious, GDP is slumping, and the political situation is just going to explode.

And that is what will prematurely destabilize the financial house of cards.

You can play these games all you want to but when the family budgets runs-out just two days after payday, it's still going to be game over, because extend and pretend must end once enough people run out of money to pay their bills, and NET spend.

 

Rule #1 : Banks go broke because their customers went broke.

Rule #2 : If you're a Bank, do not DELIBERATELY make your customers go broke.

 

They kinda screwed-up #2 ... which is related to #3 and #4:

 

Rule #3 : Countries go broke because their workers went broke.

Rule #4 : If you're a Govt, do not DELIBERATELY make your workers go broke.

 

Oh, you're a Govt, and you believe you neveh-evah made your workers go broke? Well then, what about the derivatives you allowed to fester like a cancer on society, what about the public assets stripping you insisted on until everyone paid more and more for everything, and the bubbles you allowed to grow and burst, and the banks you deregulated, and the protection you removed, and the cronies you pandered to, and the bonuses you winked at, and the illegality you fostered, and the destructive legislation you enacted, and the parasitism you thrived on, and the yoking of the producers to the taxman's trough, and the way you made sure the bankers could endlessly screw the prole, in a hundred difference scams and schemes, and the industrial relations laws that were redesigned to bias exploitative practices, and the jacking of interest rates to 'regulate' growth and inflation, and the constant currency debasement, and the wage arbitrage, and the foreclosure debacle, and the police state oppression of any protest against all of these injustices?

And now you want to "create jobs" ... right?

Rrriiiiiiggghhht! ... sure you do.

Yes, the blowback is all still just starting, so this will go on for years - EASY.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:12 | 1789451 Vagabond
Vagabond's picture

The real problem is the fact that we have a debt based world reserve currency which requires continually increasingly more debt to perpetuate itself.  There is no wonder that the world is leveraging up, what else can you do when the people have caught on to your money printing schemes?  How else do you perpetuate the ponzi?  You can't just liquidate all the bad debts.  They are the basis for so much more.  Without the debt there is no money, and with the debt we will have to learn to live with serious inflation as we try to service the debt, until we can't.  So here we are.  It is time for a new monetary system that is not set up to rob the common people until there is nothing left but to cannabilize itself.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:05 | 1790164 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

On a positive note, a Costco hot dog is still $1.50.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 22:03 | 1791107 Element
Element's picture

yes, but is it really dog still ... or are they substituting?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:10 | 1789453 semperfi
semperfi's picture

The bailouts will continue until morale improves, or the shooting starts - whichever occurs first. 

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:11 | 1789458 NEOSERF
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The more money heaped on Greece every quarter makes them look less like Greece in size and more like Spain.  Also, as you point out, if the Euro printing presses aren't going like mad right now, and foreign investment is withdrawing, then ECB, EFSF, levering etc, is really all just playing with a shrinking pot of taxpayer money.  Don't see how this can end well over there..and this is the US future in about 5 years once the EU has come out of their depression debt-free and are going to start demanding higher yields of the US once we start banning short sales, CDS etc...

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:15 | 1789471 Abitdodgie
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I live in North Dakota ,just wait untill the food shortages start showing, that will get things going.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:51 | 1789605 SheepDog-One
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Just cut food stamps $100 a month, the shit will totaly hit the fan!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 16:11 | 1790179 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

Countermove = beer stamps.    SHTF riots cancelled.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:33 | 1789536 jdelano
jdelano's picture

On Bloomberg just now, some asshole nattering on about how central banks like Japan and China are just DYING to jump into the euro as soon as they know what the plan is.  MY HEAD IS GOING TO FUCKING EXPLODE.  

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:45 | 1789847 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

It truly is frustrating when I read about "central banks printing money", because that is exactly what they don't do. They issue debt. The ECB is not giving Greece a bailout, they are rolling over their existing debt into a new, larger debt. Printing money would be the equivalent of the banks taking a haircut on their bonds, because the purchasing power of those bonds would diminish due to debasement of the currency. If we have learned one thing over the past three years, it's that banks will never voluntarily take a haircut. Therefore, they will not "print money".

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:13 | 1789465 Irish66
Irish66's picture

#2 is priceless

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:21 | 1789488 wang (not verified)
Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:14 | 1789468 yogy999
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I'm new to this web-sight and thus far I will say unequivocally that both the authorship and readership of this forum comprise some of the sharpest minds I have yet come across. What a refreshing place to visit 20 times a day. I don't know who a Tyler Durden is but he/she is by far and away the most knowledgeable, inspiring, and humorous author I have yet to come across in my 45 years on this earth. Thank you all very much in so many ways. :-)

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:20 | 1789493 Abitdodgie
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Good to have you aboard , but look out for trolls and people always wanting a fight.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:21 | 1789496 NotApplicable
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Rumor has it that Tyler is actually a rogue server on the net that has gained self-awareness.

Thu, 10/20/2011 - 00:30 | 1791555 prains
prains's picture

Rumor has it that Tyler is actually a rogue server on the net that has gained self-awareness.

 

Tyler "Mother" Durden

 

what's for dinner mom???

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:41 | 1789566 Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

Tyler Durden is just a "psudoname" used  by a bunch of schezophrenic bastards headed by no other than the white-bearded chairman. Legend has it that they were born to a chaste robot mother and only sleep 1 hour a week. They spend their nights policing the web.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:50 | 1789601 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

Careful Yogy it soon becomes an addiction!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:24 | 1789761 yogy999
yogy999's picture

Already is :-)

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:15 | 1789474 The Axe
The Axe's picture

James Gorman....says Tyler is "surreal"    ha ha   you surreal   dude.....

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:17 | 1789479 slewie the pi-rat
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and remember!  you heard it here!

THE END of TBTF = M2M*

_________________________

*mark-to-market, you idiot!

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:19 | 1789482 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All 100% bullshit all the time now, right up until the second it all completely implodes...whether thats next day or next year no one knows but thats how it ends, in 1 second.

I'd advise just being completely clear of this demolition zone.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:19 | 1789490 Traianus Augustus
Traianus Augustus's picture

Never underestimate the elitist ability to look the other way in the face of total devastation.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:02 | 1789652 ssp2s
ssp2s's picture

The Titanic metaphor is being replaced by the Johnstown Flood.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:22 | 1789499 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

It does kind of make you want to completely cash out of the market and say fuck you. I'll just buying physical gold with it. They do not want the market to go down at any cost. The market wants to go down so bad.

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:28 | 1789518 yogy999
yogy999's picture

Dead on. I guess I do a bit of everything. Gold, silver, guns, canned goods, medical(baby boomer) REITS, land, and a good copper stash in order to build a reflux still when the time is right, (probably around now):-)

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 14:58 | 1789902 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

You're wasting your money thinking that land should be part of your survivalist stores. When have property rights ever been respected during times of widespread civil unrest? Did the Vandals respect Roman property rights in 476 A.D.?

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:26 | 1789512 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

So the 110 billion bail out #1 and the coming 109 billion bail out #2 is NOT ENOUGH for Jabba the Hut. He want's more money from the EU's structural funds too! And all the eurofanatics are telling us that Greece is IMPORTANT AND INTEGRAL part of the death err eurozone. I would rather call it an incureable cancer.

 

10-19 13:14: Greek finance minister says need EUR 3.5bln per year from EU...
Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:29 | 1789520 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

The sign above the Euro : Abandon all reason ye who enter here.

 

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:31 | 1789530 pmcgoohan
pmcgoohan's picture

The Guardian messed up the plan.

We were meant to meltup through the rest of the week, meltup again over the weekend, and then hit the moon on Monday when the plan was announced. But we found out too soon and the markets are now floundering. Yes up- but floundering. They've missed at least 5 days of free meltups with this leak.

I feel much more comfortable about my shorts now the plan is out there. A mystery plan in irrefutable, unarguable, it could be anything- maybe something great.

But it isnt- its this plan- thats it- that's all you get- no really- after all this- thats all you get

Wed, 10/19/2011 - 13:41 | 1789563 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

pmc, tend to agree with your assessment of the Guardian.  They prematurely leaked the best possible plan--everything else to come will fall short, including the real plan.  

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