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David Rosenberg On A Modern Day Depression Vs Dow 20,000

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff

The challenge ahead is one of expectations. I think we win be fortunate to see any GDP growth at all for Q3, and yet the consensus is at +2.2%. The consensus is at +97k on July non-farm payrolls whereas the claims data point to sub-80k. Among the analysts, hope springs eternal that expected revenue growth of +2.6% in Q4 will be enough to generate a +12.1% expansion in bottom-line performance.

To meet that profit forecast, even more cost-cutting will have to come our way (no sooner do we say that than we see this article on page 61 of the WSJ: Steelmaker Presses for 26% Pay Cut). This may be encouraging for profits, but will also come at the expense of labour income, and with that, a sluggish consumer. Concerns over the fiscal cliff have already led to a renewed uptrend in the personal savings rate. The worst drought in the U.S. in a half-century are sending food costs sharply higher, which will severely pinch discretionary outlays, and whatever respite there had been of late from relief at the gas pumps has come to an end (have a look at Price Check: Drought May Hit Grocery Tabs, also on page 61 of the weekend WSJ). Survey after survey shows a sharp turndown in hiring plans as well.

This is looking more and more like a modem-day depression. After all, last month alone, 85,000 Americans signed on for Social Security disability cheques, which exceeded the 80,000 net new jobs that were created: and a record 46 million Americans or 14.8% of the population (also a record) are in the Food Stamp program (participation averaged 7.9% from 1970 to 2000, by way of contrast) — enrollment has risen an average of over 400,000 per month over the past four years. A record share of 41% pay zero national incomes tax as well (58 million), a share that has doubled over the past two decades. Increasingly, the U.S. is following in the footsteps of Europe of becoming a nation of dependants.

Meanwhile, policy stimulus, whether traditional or non-conventional, are still falling well short of generating self-sustaining economic growth. Some investors see this deflationary trendline because it is they that have helped drive the S&P Dividend Aristocrats index (contains large-caps that have consistently raised their payouts over the past 25 years) up 10.5% in the past month and actually touched a new all-time high last week. The likes of Kraft, Wal-Mart, Verizon, Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer and Merck all managed to reach 52-week highs as well. So even in this tough macro and market environment, there are ways to put money to work — in areas of the market that generate a reliable dividend stream for investors and produce a product that people need, not what they want.

Investors must not only screen for earnings visibility, non-cyclicality, dividend payout potential, strong management and high quality balance sheets with a manageable debt maturity calendar, but also for fully-funded pension plans. The S&P 500 space, right now, contains 338 defined-benefit plans, with aggregate obligations of $1.68 trillion but assets of just $1.32 billion, for an unprecedented underfunded liability of $355 billion. So you know the record cash-stash on corporate balance sheets that are often cited as a prime reason to be bullish on Corporate America the real issue is the extent to which shoring up depleted pension funds will compete with stock buybacks and dividend growth in the future. One thing is for sure — a reversion back to the old defined-contribution pensions is clearly coming back into focus as company after company seek out ways to reduce their contribution rates.

DOW 20,000?

Well, this is perfect.

It is amazing how many pundits still believe in stocks for the long run. See The Long-Term Argument for Dow 20,000 on page 6 of the Sunday NYT Money & Business section. Shades of Jeremy Siegel.

So what are we left to conclude?

Last week, we saw the VIX index touch 15. The Investors' Intelligence survey showed there to still be two bulls for every bear in the realm of market newsletters. The put-call ratio had fallen through 1:1 after a 20% decline since early June. The bottom-up consensus of equity analysts see global profit growth of 13.5% for 2013, which is more than a double from the 6.3% projection for this year. The S&P 500 is currently trading much closer to the top end of its year-long 1.100-1,400 band than the low end. And now we see headlines of Dow 20,000 (whatever happened to the other 15,000 points Dr. Siegel promised 13 years ago)? Where exactly is there any sign of capitulation beyond, say, the mutual fund flows data which are illustrating even to the most casual observer that what we are witnessing on this front is little more than a demographic-driven rebalancing of the baby boomer asset mix as the investment lifecycle continues along a secular shift towards capital and cash-flow preservation themes.

The bottom line is that from the spring of 2009 to the spring of 2011, the stock mark doubled, and it doubled principally because of a wild short-covering rally in the financials which were priced for insolvency at the lows. It was a classic 1933-1936 bounce that never saw a new high and never foreshadowed better times ahead. The Great Depression ended nearly a decade later and the next secular bull market did not begin until 1954. And from what history teaches us, secular bear phases do not typically end with headlines about Dow 20,000 but rather with contrarian news like The Death of Equities on the front cover of BusinessWeek back in 1979 (or Awash in Oil on the front cover of the Economist back in 1999, when crude prices were turning in their secular lows).

 

* * *

Of course, for the laugh track, here again is James Altucher from June of 2011, predicting Dow 20,000 as recently as a month ago.

 

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Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:20 | 2643764 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

The Great Depression II is going to make the first one look like a Sunday picnic.

 

 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:50 | 2643783 TrillionDollarBoner
TrillionDollarBoner's picture

At this stage it still looks pretty much like a picnic to most people. Only this time the teddy bears are packing weapons and inside the hamper an explosive device is ticking, ticking, ticking.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:18 | 2643919 Dixie Rect
Dixie Rect's picture

The teens will make the 30's look like the 50's

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 19:13 | 2644034 vmromk
vmromk's picture

I guess it's not difficult for CNBC to find an ass-clown stupid enough to embarass himeself on national television spewing half-truths.

Ever see this SCUMBAG Altucher debating Peter Schiff back in 2006/2007 when Schiff was saying the market was headed for a crash ? Altucher was calling Schiff crazy. You can find it on You Tube.

Hey Altucher, I wish you a hearty FUCK YOU, you moronic half wit. 

 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 20:04 | 2644144 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Sunday picnic, you say?

As more European sovereigns default in the summer of 2012, emotions in streets will spread like nothing has ever been witnessed.

And as food prices rise further and further...

And 46 million may also be engulfed with emotions that will likely turn the Sunday picnic into an epic.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 21:12 | 2644298 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture
Malcolm X - Democracy is Hypocrisy

 

If you can't prove that democracy is not hypocrasy, don't you put your hands on me

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNfAFfu6VD0

 

It is just that now white folks are getting the shaft too. young poor whites getting fucked in america where half of your taxes go to military "democracy"

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 03:33 | 2644790 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

copyedit?  typo in post of billion for trillion pension assets.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 20:50 | 2644250 madridisburning
madridisburning's picture

Altucher and Schiff,  that is a half-wit combined, i.e., two quarter wits, or would that be four- bit wits?

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 22:15 | 2644402 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

1/2 wit + 1/2wit * i

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 23:45 | 2644559 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

Disability is what's draining Soc. Sec.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 23:47 | 2644561 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

1/2 wit + 1/2wit * i

Complex analysis, literally.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 02:28 | 2644757 dark_matter
dark_matter's picture

?2/2 e^(i*?/2) wit

irrational, transcendental, imaginary, greek wit

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 05:21 | 2644840 mrdenis
Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:29 | 2643948 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

No fucking shit...

In the end... Rosie is just proving himself to just be another JEW apologist, for the JEW dominated financial & media world, who are determined to wreck the world... & turn the havoc all towards their own favor...

For that to happen, you need all types... Rosie is simply the Jew who pretends to be your friend, but is really in bed with the rest... FUCK HIM! (they all play their predetermined roles)...

~~~

The best thing that could happen would be a return to the DARK AGES followed by a rebirth (with their 'shill' asses firmly contained within REASONABLE measures of economic & public opinion formulating demographics instead of the minority over-representation dynamic that they presently enjoy & are more than happy to pollute the world with)...

I'm fairly sure that if I put the vote to the 7 billion inhabitants on this planet, I'd achieve a majority on that...

 

 

 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:37 | 2643973 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

I don't want to go back to the dark ages....  lighten up francis.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:40 | 2643975 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

enjoy your serfdom then... slave...

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 22:17 | 2644407 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

You want to go back to the dark ages because that was the last time you were on a level intellectual playing field.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 21:04 | 2644280 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

unfortunately, you might not have a choice at this point.

either that or serfdom for us and next 7 generations.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 01:54 | 2644723 Steverino
Steverino's picture

 

 

 

"lighten up francis."

 

 

LOL

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 20:53 | 2644257 madridisburning
madridisburning's picture

you must be the new Joker. What color is your hair, freak?

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 21:52 | 2644328 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Gee whiz... Is this you?

~~~

http://plasticmacca.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/confessions-of-ex-internet-shill.html

"I am writing here to come out of the closet as a paid shill. For a little over six months, I was paid to spread disinformation and argue political points on the Internet...

  I quit this job in the latter part of 2011, because I became disgusted with it, and with myself. I realized I couldn’t look myself in the mirror anymore. If this confession triggers some kind of retribution against me, so be it. Part of being a real man in this world is having real values that you stand up for, no matter what the consequences.   My story begins in early 2011. I had been out of work for almost a year after losing my last job in tech support. Increasingly desperate and despondent, I jumped at the chance when a former co-worker called me up and said she had a possible lead for me. “It is an unusual job, and one that requires secrecy. But the pay is good. And I know you are a good writer, so its something you are suited for.” (Writing has always been a hobby for me). She gave me only a phone-number and an address, in one of the seedier parts of San Francisco, where I live. intrigued, I asked her for the company’s URL and some more info. She laughed. “They don’t have a website. Or even a name. You’ll see. Just tell them I referred you.” Yes, it sounded suspicious, but long-term joblessness breeds desperation, and desperation has a funny way of overlooking the suspicious when it comes to putting food on the table.   The next day, I arrived at the address – the third floor in a crumbling building. The appearance of the place did not inspire confidence. After walking down a long, filthy linoleum-covered corridor lit by dimly-flickering halogen, I came to the entrance of the office itself: a crudely battered metal door with a sign that said “United Amalgamated Industries, Inc.” I later learned that this “company” changed its name almost monthly, always using bland names like that which gave no strong impression of what the company actually does. Not too hopeful, I went inside. The interior was equally shabby. There were a few long tables with folding chairs, at which about a dozen people were tapping away on old, beat-up computers. There were no decorations or ornaments of any type: not even the standard-issue office fica trees or plastic ferns. What a dump. Well, beggars can’t be choosers.   The manager, a balding man in his late forties, rose from the only stand-alone desk in the room and came forward with an easy smile. “You must be Chris. Yvette [my ex-co-worker] told me you’d be coming.” [Not our real names]. “Welcome. Let me tell you a little about what we do.” No interview, nothing. I later learned they took people based solely on referral, and that the people making the referrals, like my ex-colleague Yvette, were trained to pick out candidates based on several factors including ability to keep one’s mouth shut, basic writing skills, and desperation for work.   We sat down at his desk and he began by asking me a few questions about myself and my background, including my political views (which were basically non-existent). Then he began to explain the job. “We work on influencing people’s opinions here,” is how he described it. The company’s clients paid them to post on Internet message boards and popular chartrooms, as well as in gaming forums and social networks like Facebook and MySpace. Who were these clients? “Oh, various people,” he said vaguely. “Sometimes private companies, sometimes political groups.” Satisfied that my political views were not strong, he said I would be assigned to political work. “The best people for this type of job are people like you, without strong views,” he said with a laugh. “It might seem counterintuitive, but actually we’ve found that to be the case.” Well, OK. Fine. As long as it comes with a steady paycheck, I’d believe whatever they wanted me to believe, as the guy in Ghostbusters said.   After discussing pay (which was much better than I’d hoped) and a few other details, he then went over the need for absolute privacy and secrecy. “You can’t tell anyone what we do here. Not your wife, not your dog.” (I have neither, as it happens.) “We’ll give you a cover story and even a phone number and a fake website you can use. You will have to tell people you are a consultant. Since your background is in tech support, that will be your cover job. Is this going to be a problem for you?” I assured him it would not. “Well, OK. Shall we get started?”   “Right now?” I asked, a bit taken aback.   “No time like the present!” he said with a hearty laugh.   The rest of the day was taken up with training. Another staff member, a no-nonsense woman in her thirties, was to be my trainer, and training would only last two days. “You seem like a bright guy, you’ll get the hang of it pretty fast, I think,” she said. And indeed, the job was easier than I’d imagined. My task was simple: I would be assigned to four different websites, with the goal of entering certain discussions and promoting a certain view. I learned later that some of the personnel were assigned to internet message boards (like me), while others worked on Facebook or chatrooms. It seems these three types of media each have different strategy for shilling, and each shill concentrates on one of the three in particular.   My task? “To support Israel and counter anti-Israeli, anti-Semitic posters.” Fine with me. I had no opinions one way or another about Israel, and who likes anti-Semites and Nazis? Not me, anyway. But I didn’t know too much about the topic. “That’s OK,” she said. “You’ll pick it up as you go along. For the most part, at first, you will be doing what we call “meme-patrol.” This is pretty easy. Later if you show promise, we’ll train you for more complex arguments, where more in-depth knowledge is necessary.”   She handed me two binders with sheets enclosed in limp plastic. The first was labeled simply “Israel” in magic-marker on the cover, and it had two sections .The first section contained basic background info on the topic. I would have to read and memorize some of this, as time went on. It had internet links for further reading, essays and talking points, and excerpts from some history books. The second, and larger, section was called “Strat” (short for “strategy”) with long lists of “dialogue pairs.” These were specific responses to specific postings. If a poster wrote something close to “X,” we were supposed to respond with something close to “Y.” “You have to mix it up a bit, though,” said my trainer. “Otherwise it gets too obvious. Learn to use a thesaurus.” This section also contained a number of hints for de-railing conversations that went too far away from what we were attempting. These strategies included various forms of personal attacks, complaining to the forum moderators, smearing the characters of our opponents, using images and icons effectively, and even dragging the tone of the conversation down with sexual innuendo, links to pornography, or other such things. “Sometimes we have to fight dirty,” or trainer told us. “Our opponents don’t hesitate to, so we can’t either.”   The second binder was smaller, and it contained information specific to the web sites I would be assigned to. The sites I would work were: Godlike Productions, Lunatic Outpost, CNN news, Yahoo News, and a handful of smaller sites that rotated depending on need. As stated, I was NOT assigned to work ATS (although others in my group were), which is part of the reason I am posting this here, rather than elsewhere. I wanted to post this on Godlike Productions at first, but they have banned me from even viewing that site for some reason (perhaps they are onto me?). But if somebody connected with this site can get the message to them, I think they should know about it, because that was the site I spent a good 70% of my time working on.   The site-specific info in the second binder included a brief history each site, including recent flame-wars, as well as info on what to avoid on each site so as not to get banned. It also had quite detailed info on the moderators and the most popular regged posters on each site: location (if known), personality type, topics of interest, background sketch, and even some notes on how to “push the psychological buttons” of different posters. Although I didn’t work for ATS, I did see they had a lot of info on your so-called “WATS” posters here (the ones with gold borders around their edges). “Focus on the popular posters,” my trainer told me. “These are the influential ones. Each of these is worth 50 to 100 of the lesser known names.” Each popular poster was classified as “hostile,” “friendly,” or “indifferent” to my goal. We were supposed to cultivate friendship with the friendly posters as well as the mods (basically, by brownnosing and sucking up), and there were even notes on strategies for dealing with specific hostile posters. The info was pretty detailed, but not perfect in every case. “If you can convert one of the hostile posters from the enemy side to our side, you get a nice bonus. But this doesn’t happen too often, sadly. So mostly you’ll be attacking them and trying to smear them.”
Order "Forbidden Secrets of the Illuminati"
 
   

 

  At first, like I said, my job was “meme-patrol.” This was pretty simple and repetitive; it involved countering memes and introducing new memes, and didn’t demand much in-depth knowledge of the subject. Mostly just repetitive posting based on the dialogue pairs in the “Strat” section of the first binder. A lot of my job was de-railing and spamming threads that didn’t go our way, or making accusations of racism and anti-Semitism. Sometimes I had to simply lie and claim a poster said something or did something “in another thread” they really hadn’t said or done I felt bad about this…but in the end I felt worse about the possibility of losing the first job I’d been able to get since losing my “real” job.   The funny thing was, although I started the job with no strong opinions or political views, after a few weeks of this I became very emotionally wedded to the pro-Israel ideas I was pushing. There must be some psychological factor at work…a good salesman learns to honestly love the products he’s selling, I guess. It wasn’t long before my responses became fiery and passionate, and I began to learn more about the topic on my own. “This is a good sign,” my trainer told me. “It means you are ready for the next step: complex debate.”   The “complex debate” part of the job involved a fair amount of additional training, including memorizing more specific information about the specific posters (friendly and hostile) I’d be sparring with. Here, too, there were scripts and suggested lines of argument, but we were given more freedom. There were a lot of details to this more advanced stage of the job – everything from how to select the right avatar to how to use “demotivationals” (humorous images with black borders that one finds floating around the web). Even the proper use of images of cats was discussed. Sometimes we used faked or photo-shopped images or doctored news reports (something else that bothered me).   I was also given the job of tying to find new recruits, people “like me” who had the personality type, ability to keep a secret, basic writing/thinking skills, and desperation necessary to sign on a shill. I was less successful at this part of the job, though, and I couldn’t find another in the time I was there.   After a while of doing this, I started to feel bad. Not because of the views I was pushing (as I said, I was first apolitical, then pro-Israel), but because of the dishonesty involved. If my arguments were so correct, I wondered, why did we have to do this in the first place? Shouldn’t truth propagate itself naturally, rather than through, well…propaganda? And who was behind this whole operation, anyway? Who was signing my paychecks? The stress of lying to my parents and friends about being a “consultant” was also getting to me. Finally, I said enough was enough. I quit in September 2011. Since then I’ve been working a series of unglamorous temp office jobs for lower pay. But at least I’m not making my living lying and heckling people who come online to express their views and exercise freedom of speech.   A few days ago I happened to be in the same neighborhood and on a whim thought I’d check out the old office. It turns out the operation is gone, having moved on. This, too, I understood, is part of their strategy: Don’t stay in the same place for too long, don’t keep the same name too long, move on after half a year or so. Keeping a low profile, finding new employees through word of mouth: All this is part of the shill way of life. But it is a deceptive way of life, and no matter how noble the goals (I remain pro-Israel, by the way), these sleazy means cannot be justified by the end.   This is my confession. ... Shills exist. They are real. They walk among you...   Yours,   ExShill   April 2012"
Mon, 07/23/2012 - 22:37 | 2644437 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Has anybody else around here heard anything about this...

~~~

"Two news outlets in India as well as one in Iran report an alleged assassination attempt on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton during her recent visit in Israel. A Google search as well as Google News search on this story finds no American media outlets reporting the story.

ZeeNews.com, an Indian news web site, reports, “Israel Radio broke the story earlier in the week, which was confirmed by sources inside Israel, but never mentioned again. According to World Mathaba, the purported attack on Hillary was related to the current political upheaval in Israel -- the aim being kill Hillary, blame Iran and take the focus off the domestic political meltdown in Tel Aviv.”

Iran’s Al-Alam News reported, “Israeli sources reported that the procession of Hillary Clinton Secretary of State was shot on yesterday, while passing through on the road to Jerusalem – Tel Aviv.”

News Track India also reported the story, “According to sources, the attack on Clinton's convoy, a minimum of three to five vehicles, traveling from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, follows the story earlier of an attack on a bus loaded with Israeli tourists that exploded in Bulgaria, which killed six persons. According to World Mathaba, both the Bulgaria attack and the attempted assassination of Clinton was a Mossad "false flag" operation.

Nothing has yet to be reported on this in American media as of 5:21 PM Eastern Time."

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 23:33 | 2644542 jumbo maverick
jumbo maverick's picture

Yes as her plane landed and she ran out of the rear cargo ramp she had to dodge sniper fire from- Bosnian snipers? Serbian snipers? Croatian snipers?
Wait never mind that was a different war and when the military pilots were asked they said they had not taken any sniper fire, nor were there any other aggressive acts made against them.
Hey remember Cankles Clinton was a Yankees fan before she was even elected in NY remember that?

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 23:52 | 2644565 fourchan
fourchan's picture

dispicable cunt.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 22:01 | 2644343 Unbezahlbar
Unbezahlbar's picture
Obama: Private Sector is "Doing Fine"

 

New York Times blogger Paul Krugman does not agree with President Obama that “the private sector is doing just fine”– or at least doesn’t think that was what the President meant, exactly. Nonetheless, Krugman told Charlie Rose on CBS’ This Morning today that the line was “unfortunate” and the President “screwed up.”

 

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/paul-krugman-on-private-sector-is-doing-fine-... 

 

So there. All you worry warts can go back to watching the Tele, 'Dancing with the Idles' and be Amused to Death:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amusing_Ourselves_to_Death

 

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/1/1e/Amusinghkn.jpg

 


Mon, 07/23/2012 - 21:53 | 2644366 Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

Yes, yes, yes.  Pre-determined roles, false flags and psy-ops. It's relentless.  But did you know "they" just want you to think it's all false flags and psy-ops, but in point of fact it's all reality?  Just throttles the mind, doesn't it?  Up is down, left is right, and never the twain shall meet.  It's the classic double blind, bent-over-backwards, Mobius Strip Two Step, and they got you dancing.  You probably don't even remember when "they" kidnapped and programmed you during MK Ultra 2000.  Well, that's not quite correct.  I suspect you believe you remember, and isn't that a victory in and of itself.  Go in the bathroom and check out Little Willie.  "They" circumsized you, right?  Q.E.D.

In your honor, we're diverting the flightpath of a few dozen commercial flights tomorrow to put them all right exactly over your residence.

Happy Chemtrails to you, Francis.

 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 22:36 | 2644434 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

So did the Russians kill the survivors of the plane crash of the entire Polish Government or not? (That would be an act of war btw...i believe Poland is in NATO...is an attack against one an attack against all or not? Guess we'll find out soon in Syria.)http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hk3Dsr-lmUY&feature=fvwrel

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 22:46 | 2644472 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Its quite soothing & re-assuring indeed to have Cosimo de' Medici himself lecture me about the folly of worrying about anything & that instead, the world is full of benevolent folks like himself that are looking out for the best interests of humanity...

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 23:45 | 2644557 potlatch
potlatch's picture

I see these posts on ZH, with the "Jew thing" going on, and just downvote them or skip over them usually.  But I am curious.  Are you guys actually serious?  or is this just troll-shit? 

 

I always figured it was someone using the magic of the intrawebs to troll some lazy baiting for some god knows what reason.  It never occured to me you guys might actually believe this stuff. 

 

 

 

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 02:14 | 2644742 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The answer to your question is "I don't know"... I can't speak for other people on ZH, I can only speak for myself...

I believe to have a healthy & functioning society you have to have dissidents (otherwise you're a DISSONANT slave living under facist rule)... My own dissident behavior is limited to blogs (ZH in particular ~ & even there, only on occasion)... The truth is, if anyone so as mentions the word "Jew" on just about any blog, however thought provoking, it gets moderated right out of existence... Try it sometime... I won't even get into what would happen if you happened to articulate any 'anti-Israel' thoughts in public... You'd soon find yourself as an outcast...

Much of the problem, I believe, is that the media is heavily influenced by Jews themselves... This is a well known fact & has been going on for a long time (even before electronic media)... The industries, largely, operate with a great deal of nepotism, and a definite agenda is promoted, while other things are ignored...

To give an example... You're likely to see this story splashed all over various media this week...

http://msn.foxsports.com/olympics/story/bob-costas-plans-to-honor-israelis-killed-in-munich-072312/?GT1=39002

& you'll not see a word of this broadcast anywhere...

Russell Tribunal Condemns Israel as Apartheid State

http://vigilantcitizen.com/vcboards/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=15340&hilit=russell+tribunal

~~~

Have no fear... None of these things compel me to go out & paint swastikas of synagogues or anything... It's simply that every once in a while I get sick of the incessant brainwashing and want to let it be known... As for this thread, it probably wasn't the best choice, because 'Rosie' tends to mirror most of the bear sentiments that are played out every day on ZH (so doing that was not going to be popular anyway)...

Frankly ~ I'm as sick of listening to Rosie (who hardly ever gets a trading call right, notwithstanding his bearish views), as I'm sick of listening to just about every other 'eCONomist'... But alas, it's the only game in town... & most of that game is controlled by... You guessed it...

'Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes the laws.'

~Mayer Amschel Rothschild

~~~

I now return you all to your daily worship...

 

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 01:51 | 2644718 vft2212
vft2212's picture

That vote would represent a "tyranny of the majority" and you are an example of the "Madness of Krauts".

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 12:20 | 2645792 HedgeOn
HedgeOn's picture

francis sawyer: you are a racist dipshit. i'm not jewish but you're post is so idiotic it's mind boggling.  it proves to me that your viewpoint is steeped in ignorance and couched as some sort of truth to protect the "non-jews".  you should follow someone else who really is your "friend". Brian Wesbury perhaps? That nonjew will help make sure that you save your money.  in case i didn't make my self clear - you are without a doubt a useless troll who doesn't know shit about shit.

 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 19:09 | 2644021 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

It has already started.

 

http://ericsprott.blogspot.ca/

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 19:10 | 2644024 pkea
pkea's picture

the higher projections for the Dow you hear, the worse things are shaping up to be

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:34 | 2643791 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

i'm stressed from having to wait for ben bernanke once a month decide the fate of me, my business and the rest of the 350 million sheeples future. How the fuck is it possible we all have to wait for one man to talk every month, as we wait for whatever we are all waiting for and recieve nothing. Its like the girl i had to drive around my senior year in high school and got nothing,,,,,,a complete dick tease

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:40 | 2643820 cossack55
cossack55's picture

The only times when I am stressed or depressed are when a piece of shit republican or a peice of shit democrat win any election.  Wheres my fuckin' Prosac?

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 22:08 | 2643892 Shocker
Shocker's picture

True, you can call this a Depression, Recession, Great Recession whatever you want to label it.

At the end of the day, there is no denying we are in some rough times.

 

 

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 23:10 | 2644502 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

it needs to happen, let it happen. let americans feel the pain to finally wake up.

 

 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:56 | 2643864 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

BB decides the fate of nothing. He is a shill and front for the greater shadow powers behind him. He was selected to perform these tasks before him. 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:07 | 2643893 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

The first one?  There were a number of depressions before the one of the 1930's, some of which were far worse.  It was noted by more than a few observers that the depression of the 1930s was merely a depression in most of the world, but it became the Great Depression in the US once its policy makers began trying to fix things.

What is amazing is how long it took for us to get to this depression ... what is not amazing is how spectacular a failure our ruling elites have been at fixing this one.  

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 19:00 | 2644005 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

Actually, they were called PANICS then, not Depressions.

Panic of 1837, 1857, 1873, 1893, 1907......

If you are a coin collector, you might notice the correlation between low mintage coins and poor economy.

 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 19:35 | 2644092 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Actually the worst Depression in the US was likely what is commonly referred to as the Long Depression, a series of panics without any real growth between 1873 and 1896. Carpetbaggers probably contributed to this, just like the banksters are helping us this time around. Now everyone thinks that the world started about 1920, so most people know nothing of true economic history. Kind of like the idiots who think AGW makes sense statistically since we have about 150 years of recorded temperatures.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 22:07 | 2644383 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

'Carpetbaggers'... Imagine that...

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 22:23 | 2644416 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

This would also be the same time period supplied by Greenspan as an example of amazing growth in the US. Coinkydink?

Kind of like the abjectly ignorant masses that have never heard of a fucking ice core?

Here's laughing at the SUV that will be your future home.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 20:55 | 2644261 madridisburning
madridisburning's picture

Not possible. Only good times back then, because we had the gold standard. 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 22:24 | 2644417 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

And if you got to the bank quickly, you might even get to have some of the gold!

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:23 | 2643903 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

Re Its like the girl i had to drive around my senior year in high school and got nothing,,,,,,a complete dick tease.

If her name happened to be Amanda, she used to come over to my place after she'd finished wining 'n dining with you.

Thanks for being a sport & picking up the tab ;)

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:17 | 2643917 CH1
CH1's picture

i'm stressed from having to wait for ben bernanke once a month decide the fate of me...

Ditch the system, my friend. Start building afresh. You'll like it.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 20:14 | 2644161 old naughty
old naughty's picture

@I think

 but, but you (ah, on scond thought, WE) are all stressed for more than 30 months waiting for him once a month, no?

"How the fXXk is it possible we..."  Never mind.

I am going to bury my head back in the sand.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 01:53 | 2644721 vft2212
vft2212's picture

Thursdays at 4:30 is the money supply

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:34 | 2643802 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

CNBC would have a much more difficult time pumping the positive if the 46 million food stamp recipients did not look like normal shoppers, but rather like the soup liners of the GD. 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:19 | 2643921 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

We need some ZH'ers to go into Walmart @ midnight when SNAP cards are filled.

Take some pictures in Black n White.

 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:44 | 2643983 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

That's actually an old story...  When I looked into doing that, to see the carnage for myself, it was explained that they doll out the SNAP money and other benefits on a staggered system by recipient's last name.  (e.g. a-f goes X day, g-m goes Y).  The demand was so strong and focused at the first of the month, that retailers couldn't keep up and complained to legislatures, etc.  Basically their infrastructure got swamped...  (it still does to some extent).

You can accomplish the same thing by chatting up your store clerks...  just ask them about what happens...  if they're busy...  what it looks like...  what he or she thinks about it...  I think you'll find they're pretty close to the mark on their observations.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 20:58 | 2644267 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Toward Los Angeles, California. 1937. Photographer: Dorothea Lange. Perhaps 2.5 million people abandoned their homes in the South and the Great Plains during the Great Depression and went on the road.

 

 


Mon, 07/23/2012 - 21:06 | 2644284 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

No photo... my bad.  

 

http://www.english.illinois.edu/maps/depression/photoessay.htm

 

Great photos.  Puts this 'depression' in context.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 00:32 | 2644617 kennard
kennard's picture

The captions describe the poor and the unions from the socialist perspective. They had cars and lived much better than most of the world lives today. A mother sold the tires of her care for food, which makes no sense. Keep the car or sell the car, but this has the aroma of propoganda.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:52 | 2643856 resurger
resurger's picture

lol

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:59 | 2643875 Whalley World
Whalley World's picture

Iam pretty sure the term "Great" will not be associated with this economic Tsunami heading for us. Worst Depression, Shittiest Depression, okay, Great, not in my opinion.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:19 | 2643922 CH1
CH1's picture

Certainly. They'll call it The Surprise Fiunancial Tsunami of 2012 (or maybe 2013).

"No one saw it coming!"

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 20:57 | 2644264 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

The Most Unexpected Economic Difficulty. - Ned

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:30 | 2643952 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

T'is not a depression now as in the 30's the currency was "saved" this will be knowen as the Great Reset...for there is no saving the currency now.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:46 | 2643986 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

A few people might have expected the same thing at other points in the dollar's timeline...  the simple fact is that unless you're the one perpetrating the fraud, you have no idea where we're heading...  there is always a rabbit in the hat until there isn't...  is this going to be the time?  Who knows.  I'm not the guy pulling rabits.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 01:27 | 2644696 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture

 

 

There will be no "great reset" nor any kind of "reset".

America is heading into flat out fuedalism, rich and poor, no more middle class.

 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 22:06 | 2644386 bugfixx
bugfixx's picture

It will be called The Great Swindle.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:21 | 2643927 neidermeyer
neidermeyer's picture

But the banks are doing well ... GO-TARP!!! GO AG Settlemt!! GO TEAM FRAUDCLOSURE!!!

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 19:39 | 2644106 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

"Brother -- can you spare a [ pre-1965 ] dime ?"

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 20:19 | 2644172 graneros
graneros's picture

At today's silver spot of $27.06 a junk silver (pre1965) 10 cent piece is worth:  $1.96.  When silver hits $100.00 an oz that dime will be worth: $7.23.  +1 for Jay Gould Esq.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 23:56 | 2644568 toady
toady's picture

And that $1.96 will get you something off the dollar menu, plus tax, at you local fast food joint.

And that $ menu will be the $5 menu when silver is @ $100

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 22:25 | 2644420 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Why? You'd just spend it on Pinkertons!

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 20:13 | 2644165 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Even scarier and something we should give thought to is a world of permanent depression where improvement cannot gain traction due to droughts, wars, isolationsim, perhaps natural disasters or contagious and deadly diseases.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 20:48 | 2644246 g speed
g speed's picture

the world of omnipotent govt.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 22:28 | 2644421 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Don't worry. The private sector is all over it. LOL

 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 22:07 | 2644389 Ookspay
Ookspay's picture

During the first depression the populace was far different. There was morality, family units and the willingness to work. This coming depression will unleash tens of millions of entitlement junkies causing mass riots and destruction.

Got Gold? Got Sig?

(insert smiley face here)

 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 22:39 | 2644445 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Yeah, but they're all boomers and seniors slangin' that Medicare Part D dope so you'll have a solid 3 minutes before they arrive, out of breath and clutching their under-exercised, over-medicated folds in mimed anguish (think Red Foxx when he's "coming Lizbeth").

 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 23:09 | 2644499 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

During the first depression the populace was far different. There was morality, family units and the willingness to work.

 

Exactly. Just try to imagine some psycho-killer shooting up a movie theatre in the 1930s.  The worst of the worst would never have considered it.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 08:20 | 2645034 Milton Freewater
Milton Freewater's picture

Nice avatar I live six miles from there.

 

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 09:59 | 2645258 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

I took the photo myself so I guess I must have been pretty close...maybe next time we can have some mint juleps.

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 02:09 | 2644741 vft2212
vft2212's picture

Are you referring to buying with 10 times margin as in 1929 "moral"? We've had entitlement junkies forever just more so now than recorded. People live longer. This is clearly a deflationary depression with little credit availability and no manufacturing of anything worthwhile other than a medical device. We do however export inflated global food costs and spread the disease of corn, father of diabetes and obesity. The bear is 12 years old and usually hangs around for 15 years. So after the next presidential cycle the world will most likely encounter a new bull market. Dow 2000 will be the most popular book on $OSTK. But just as in the late 60s throughout the 70s there were opportunities to make fortunes. Wal*Mart ( today consider Whole Foods ), gold ( today consider the $USD ), casino stocks ( LVS ) and specialty retailers like the Limited then ( ROST & TJX ) today. You just have to look for survivors that are taking out the old and monopolizing the next up cycle. Governments have proven they will not stand for chaos or panic. If WAMU INDYMAC AIG GM EK C BAC FNM FRE etc didn't bring upon us the guns & butter crowd then you are missing the big picture. It is just a bear market and most likely 80% ( 12/15 ) done. However Joe Granville pointed out the bathtub effect, the water leaves the tub quickest at the end.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:23 | 2643769 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

If it weren't for SS, snap, and extended unemployment misery in the usa would be much higher than during GD1.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:37 | 2643809 avidtango
avidtango's picture

But (I always think) all these federal programs are so damn ineffective, poorly managed, inefficient and rarely accomplish their aim.  Worse, they are spiraling the debt out of control. Yes, folks are getting food, money, education and medicine but the ultimate cost will be greater than not providing it (no money vs some money). A new depression would be mitigated by technology and its many advantages.  People could form clubs to play with their IPADS all day before eating their allotted ration of the day.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:42 | 2643825 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Food stamps is poorly managed and inefficient, but it IS actually "effective." 

No one with SNAP benefits is starving, for damn sure.  Malnutrition, maybe, but not starving.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:45 | 2643834 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Those on SNAP need to be helped by friends, family and churches. Not the government.  It is not effective.  Stop the program, lower my taxes, I will buy more crap and put more people to work.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:56 | 2643865 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Inefficient is different than ineffective.  Family, friends, and churches providing charity costs a lot less than the government doing anything.  Yes SNAP gets money to someone but at what cost.  How much more could be given to the needy?  That is never asked.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:03 | 2643885 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

You're using some kind of personal defintion for "ineffective."  Go on with your bad self--English is overrated, anyway.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:04 | 2643889 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

SNAP and all of the other programs are effective, but with goals that you might not imagine for them. 

These programs are designed to enslave the people to the current monetary paradigm - which allows the bankers to continue their parasitic skimming on society. Fractional reserve banking and sovereign borrowing are simply the scams of the century, and every action and reaction are meant to keep these paradigms in their place. Sovereign countries do NOT have to borrow their 'own' money from private corporations - which have been granted (for free) the right to create credit out of thin air. 

See the United States Note. Whatever you thinking of "printing", what we are doing currently is not printing - it is borrowing and enslavement, and creating a grand mechanism to hide these facts. 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 20:53 | 2644256 g speed
g speed's picture

come on---SNAP is just price support for the ag industry.  If the govt stopped bidding on food the price would drop--I bet it would.

 

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 00:22 | 2644600 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

The prices on all the stupid high-margin garbage would fall through the floor, a third of the urban "groceries" would collapse within 3 months, and the underclass life expectancy would drop 10-25%.

"Nigga, what the fuck is JUICE!?!?" --Dave Chappelle

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:08 | 2643897 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

But how does that buy any votes?

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:21 | 2643926 CH1
CH1's picture

it IS actually "effective."

Depends on how you apply "effective."

If you apply it to affects on the souls of everyone involved, it is effective at destroying them.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:24 | 2643935 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

You can look up what SNAP is intended to do, if you care.  The word "soul" is not mentioned.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:52 | 2643857 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Inflation will break the food stamp program. This will end badly.

I don't think this will look anything like the first Great Depression. It will be far more chaotic.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:02 | 2643884 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Because  a few generations of educated idiots cannot take care of themselves, grow any food, or think for themselves.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:26 | 2643945 neidermeyer
neidermeyer's picture

We're far more urban now ,, only 2 or 3% of us are farmers ,, in GD1 it was about 50% ... I couldn't grow enough on my 1/4 acre to feed myself much less a family..

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 19:29 | 2644074 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

yes you could. can't means won't.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 20:56 | 2644263 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Cheers !

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 20:02 | 2644139 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

ahhh, more reason why i own 50 acres of arable land (with water supply), along with PMs, cash, those pesky mail order ammo cans (full), a nice tractor, means of producing small amounts of fuel, etc, etc. but i'm not a prepper, this is a new lifestyle.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 22:55 | 2644482 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Now that you've notified everyone, someone will be along shortly to steal it all from you...

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 21:27 | 2644326 Havana White
Havana White's picture

Outsourcing?  Sure, go right ahead!  What could be the harm in that?  (SARC)

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:07 | 2643894 ATM
ATM's picture

In the first Great depression there were plenty of goods and services to be had but no one had any money to buy them.

In the coming Great Depression everyone will have plenty of money but we won't be able to buy anythng with it. 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 21:01 | 2644275 g speed
g speed's picture

a depression by definition is a time of depressed demand resulting in lower prices (supply and demand). 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 21:53 | 2644369 juslen
juslen's picture

Bullshit, ever hear of an inflationary depression? Here is a clue, look up hyperinflation and you tell me how the person you are responding to is wrong. He simply pointed out that everyone will have plenty of money (because it's supply is inflated) but that money won't be able to buy much. Which explains why during a inflationary depression the store shelves can be empty, but people can still have plenty of money in their pocketrs. Why? Because people lose faith in the currency and demand other things (besides pieces paper or debit/credit) Lower prices do in fact come when demand has fallen, but that is because there is less money chasing the same or fewer goods. Its entirely possible for there to be falling prices (deflation) and a growing economy. It happened during the first two Industrial Revolutions.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 22:43 | 2644468 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

That poster referred specifically to the Great Depression, which was anything but inflationary.

Get a clue.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:38 | 2643811 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Can one get that SS disability if they have gone certifiably crazy ??...just askin for a friend.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:09 | 2643902 goldfreak
goldfreak's picture

sure tell your friend to see Bender an Bender or any other lawyer. For 25% cut of the retro money they will get you disability

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 19:31 | 2644081 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

is that like a binge or bender over?

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:15 | 2643914 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

Your friend will have a Fudicary appointed by SS to take care of his money in his interest since "Cert. Crazy" means he is unable to take care of himself.

 

You sure you want to go down that road? Those electro magnetic locks are stronger than any man alive.

 

The Lawyer cut each month will be closer to 40% and if you get any backpay they will collect that too.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:51 | 2643993 Rainman
Rainman's picture

How can one become a Fudicary..?? whatever that means, I believe I would be a proper selection.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 21:03 | 2644277 g speed
g speed's picture

you could be a foster parent-same thing

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:46 | 2643837 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Yeah, after the last one they were determined to provide "cover" for the next one.  They let just enough trickle down to the masses so that we can't actually call it a Depression even though it IS.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:10 | 2643905 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Were it not for SS and SNAP you would have people starving to death, riots in major cities, and crime waves of epic proportions. A collapse of civlization. Just like Egypt, Tunisia, Syria, etc... Hmmm,  I hope you folks at the FED, Treasure, and politicians are paying attention.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:34 | 2643965 mmlevine
mmlevine's picture

Right you are asteroids.  The middle class might not be getting ahead as once dreamt - I can live with that.  You start fucking with people's ability to feed their family and who knows what acts people will resort to.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 20:58 | 2644266 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Egyt was planned. Food was just the excuse.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 23:20 | 2644523 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Right on both counts.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 19:28 | 2644072 Overfed
Overfed's picture

 

SS, SNAP, and UI make sure that the people get their minimum daily allowance of bread and circuses so that they don't go on a rampage.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:27 | 2643778 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Altucher......what a useless tool........

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:36 | 2643808 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

Didn't altucher lose all his money and somehow make it back? If this idiot can do that, I ask myself everyday how I haven't yet become a millionaire.........

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:38 | 2643813 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Not sure if Altucher lost all his money.  You're probably thinking of his clients who actually listened to him.......

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:38 | 2643814 realtick
realtick's picture

I think he's been smoking something:

http://i50.tinypic.com/24l55rc.png

 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:28 | 2643779 Ironmaan
Ironmaan's picture

It's coming as surely as my death will, but when?

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:28 | 2643782 Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

Long tear gas and rubber bullets.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:30 | 2643786 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Lets hope we do not require a World War to get us out of this Depression.

It is what did it,whatever the revisionists say.

WWIII will be the war ,to end all wars.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:33 | 2643795 Negro Primero
Negro Primero's picture

Steady As She Goes: The recoveryTM continues to build momentum; now only 43 states have fewer jobs than before the Great Recession.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:49 | 2643845 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Ever notice how when they start talking about reducing the Pentagon's budget another war breaks out?

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:30 | 2643954 Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

If you look closely at the history of American Military action, another war/operation is always breaking out.  So while it happens whenever their budget is threatened that's not really the cause, because it's always happening. 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 20:59 | 2644270 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Yes, both sides are good at starting wars.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:30 | 2643787 PSEUDOLOGOI
PSEUDOLOGOI's picture

but, but, but.... this time it IS different!!!

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:30 | 2643790 kraschenbern
kraschenbern's picture

@ David Rosenberg

What policy stimulus?  We've been the subject of monetary (token swapping) stimulus.  But that is not a value added economic exchange.  It simply moves mountains of paper promises from one place to another; some persons engaged in the exchange have a bigger pile of tokens afterwards, others a smaller pile.  But it's all TOKENS.  Like a casino where you play at the table with chips issued by the house; except now no one is quite sure that the chips can be cashed in.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:42 | 2643824 11b40
11b40's picture

...and further to our point, the chips are not allowed to leave the Casino.  All the tokens are being passed around among a small group of players, never seeming to reach the masses, where true stimulis would spur growth in the real economy.  As it is, these clowns have just been stimulating each other

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:47 | 2643840 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

What will you say when your "token swaps" fail I wonder...

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:32 | 2643794 hedgeisforpussies
hedgeisforpussies's picture

le marche still believes in bernanke, equity put, invisible hand, btfd and other crap. until i stop hearing cnbc talking about bernanke put and qe i wont believe any rally. i want maria bartoromero to anchor a program that equities are dead and everyone should beinvesting into 100 year zero cupon treasuries at rate of 0.2%. thats when go all in 100 leveraged and buy equities. 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:34 | 2643803 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

You make it seem like the nation WANTS to be dependent on the government.  But I'm sure most just want to make enough money to feed the family and pay the bills.  Half of America has nothing at all, and half of those people are poor or at risk of becoming so.  If you, and the elites who run the planet, don't like this situation, maybe you can promote a higher minimum wage and some kind of government-sponsored jobs bill to help get people working.  At least we get something for our tax dollars this way.

But I do see your point.  The dead don't cost much to feed.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:43 | 2643827 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

 

"some kind of government-sponsored jobs bill to help get people working".

 

Don't worry there is one coming....it's called war. It's usually what happens when people look to government to save them.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 21:10 | 2644287 g speed
g speed's picture

I'm thinking the next war may be internal-- civil war-- be afraid-be very afraid!

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:05 | 2643891 spdrdr
spdrdr's picture

Higher minimum wages and government interference in business is what has caused this mess. 

We are experiencing the death throes of socialist/fascist government, and the evil institutions spawned by government/Wall Street diktat.

Enjoy the ride with your fellow commies.

 

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 01:41 | 2644709 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Death of this 100-200 year old crypto-socialist crap, in preparation for the birth of the next phase of (inter)national socialism. 20th century redux unfolding before our eyes every day.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:34 | 2643804 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Based on 'Rosie's' trading calls over the past half decade... I'd say he's about poised to be within 20 from the front on the SOUP LINE when GD2 hits (if it hasn't already)...

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 18:33 | 2643962 kito
kito's picture

i dont know how rosie gets props on this site. he is as ridiculous as any permabull that is mocked by tyler...........rosie has always rambled off a 1000 reasons why its bear season......

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:36 | 2643807 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

 

James Altucher is a clown. He has been saying this forever. I can't belive anybody would take this guy seriously. A stock  bubble in 2012 hah...the bubble is in treasuries.

 

O

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:42 | 2643826 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

135 for a 10y Treasury note...

Only Robot Trader spends his Friday allowance money on that kinda bait...

Tue, 07/24/2012 - 02:17 | 2644749 vft2212
vft2212's picture

I agree about JA but in a deflation cash is king and M2 velocity is at levels seen before the 2000 crash. So if everyone loses 20% or more tbills will return an inverse tax free gain ( and with a panic comes a stronger USD which increases your buying power ).The bubble is in debt, student loans, HELOCs, credit cards and of course mortgages. The treasury has confiscated cash and that which is printing tonight will stay in the banking system and not see the light of any human pockets.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:37 | 2643810 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

The people in Jobs (for the most part)  were just as dependent as the Jobless are now.

Dependent on oil..................

omrpublic.iea.org/Prices/Cf_rg_rg.pdf

 

Their Jobs merely recycle the stuff back into paper claims.

Ever since the Industrial age (capital / energy) was superior to Labour......as the last slave state of the modern era was the South.

 

If non US countries want to reduce their now hard money $ exports they must print domestic currencies.......they will then export their oil surplus to the US and people will call it  growth.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:38 | 2643812 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

I don't understand that DOW thingie.  Can't they just keep changing the members until it hits 20,000?

Maybe like...at the end of the day, pick whichever large-cap went up the most, grant it "honorary" membership, and remove the large-cap that sucked the most?

DOW 20K should be just the beginning...

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:58 | 2643874 Getting Old Sucks
Getting Old Sucks's picture

Yes they could I guess but the way they add up the DOW is the historic values of the stock including splits and other factors times about 7.5, so I guess it's not that easy to swap them out.  I'm just a J6P though so hey you traders out there, chime in. 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:39 | 2643816 Rich Bagg
Rich Bagg's picture

David Hooknosenberg fails to mention that 105,000 disabled Americans fell off the Disability rolls last month due to death.  You don't just "sign on" to Disability.  You have to prove you are medically unable to work.  This process often takes 18-24 months.  Many die before receiving anything.

This jerk seems to think all Disability recipients are faking it.  He can go F himself.

 

 

 

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:45 | 2643833 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Nope not all of them are faking it, but I can personally name five who are....and counting.

Mon, 07/23/2012 - 17:52 | 2643858 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Me too.

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