David Rosenberg: The Recession Is A Virtual Certainty And Here Is How To Trade It
David Rosenberg released an emergency note today, in addition to his traditional morning piece, in which the sole topic is the upcoming recession, which he says is now a "virtual certainty". He also says what Zero Hedge has been saying for month: that 2011 is an identical replica of 2010, but with the provision of modestly higher inflation, which needs decline before QE3 is launched. Sure enough, a major market tumble will fix all that in a few days, and ironically we can't help but continue to wonder whether the Fed is not actively doing all in its power to actually crash the market to about 20% lower which will send practically flatten the treasury curve and give Bernanke full reign to do as he sees fit. However, as long as the BTFD and mean reversion algos kick in every time the market makes a 2% correction, such efforts are doomed, which in turn makes all such dip buying futile. We give the market a few more weeks before it comprehends this. In the meantime, with each passing day in which "nothing happens", the recession within a depression looms closer, and soon it will be inevitable and not all the money printed by Bernanke will do much if anything (except to terminally wound the dollar). In the meantime, for those who wish to prepare for the double dip onset, here is Rosie's checklist of what to do, and what not.
Recession Protection
Moving increasingly to immunize portfolios from the rising prospect of a recession scenario while providing returns that cash, deposits and T-bills just can't rival what we are doing at the investment committee and asset mix level of our firm.
Let me begin by saying I don't think this will be classified as a "double dip" per se since so much time has elapsed since the last downturn. Be that as it may, it is evident that we will be going into another recession — I think at this point it's only a question of whether it has already begun — with the levels of output, employment and income all lower now than they were prior to the last contraction phase.
Plain-vanilla, garden-variety business expansions and contractions that are influenced by the manufacturing inventory cycle tend to have recessions separated between five and 10 years apart. That was certainly the experience that economists came to understand and appreciate in the post-WWII era. But in balance sheet cycles, which involve deleveraging, rising savings rates and asset deflation, recoveries are fragile and susceptible to the smallest of shocks and typically, recessions occur every two to three years. This puts a recession by 2012 squarely in the spotlight.
I have already pegged a U.S. recession as a virtual certainty, and respected economists like Martin Feldstein in recent days stated the odds were 50-50 and Larry Summers is at 1-in-3. I am fairly certain that Paul Krugman is close to where I am on this file. All that said, recession risks are rising and until we receive another positive policy shock from the Fed, these risks will remain acute for some time yet. We are replaying the summer of 2010 but only when the white knights of radical monetary and fiscal stimulus resurfaced did the "double dip" chatter subside and give way towards renewed growth and risk appetite — at least for a few months.
You can still make money for investors without taking undue risk ... and without having to shift into the ultra-safe world of zero percent-yielding cash or one percent GIC rates either.
Hedge funds that really hedge the risk or relative-value strategies that can go short low-quality and high-cyclical equities while going long a basket of high- quality and low-cyclical equities will be a money-maker in this environment. Those that have the capacity to short economically-sensitive stocks that trade at cycle-high P/E multiples may have an advantage in such a weakening macro and market environment.
A focus on hybrids or income-equity portfolios that have low correlations with the direction of the equity market and generate a yield far superior than what you can garner in the Treasury market makes perfect sense.
And if there is anything out there that is remotely close to "recession proof" it is corporate balance sheets and so an emphasis on credit is going to be critical — the idea is to be selective and identify those entities that have a single-A balance sheet but pay out a BBB yield.
We are believers that gold and gold mining stocks will prove to be profitable investments as the economic downturn inevitably prompts more money printing, not just out of the Fed, but other major central banks as well.
Commodities in general, energy and raw food in particular, should be a core position, as they are behaving less cyclically and more as a secular growth theme linked to the rapidly rising incomes in the emerging market economies.
The economy and risk assets typically hit a speed bump in a recession. That much is true, but investment ideas and opportunities within the market can still flourish even in a bear phase or a correction — cash should not have to be an option.
The key is to be positioned appropriately for the part of the business cycle we are on the cusp of entering. In a nutshell, what that means is carefully- constructed investment strategies and portfolios that preserve capital, minimize cyclical exposures, enhance yield and thereby provide for significant risk- adjusted returns—even in a recession. In light of these heightened volatile times, we also realize that this is not necessarily a buy and hold market, and the ability to move into equity markets and take advantage of weakness should also be a part of the strategy
Source: Gluskin Sheff
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I'm loving this Quasi Yen selling right now... Good thing I'm smart enough not to trade Yen or chf right now! Think I'll add some more Aud on this high 1.06's area...
Side note: Japan bailing out nuclear co. Using taxpayers to pay victim compensation.
http://www.eco-business.com/news/japan-passes-law-supporting-nuclear-plant-operator/
BTW: I may have missed tape here, but radiation going wild in Japan. Today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-02/tepco-reports-second-deadly-radiation-reading-at-fukushima-plant.html
Anyone know how long until this wind blows here, or when the 3-eyed fish arrive?
Looks like Japan is going to follow the US model of helping to keep those corporate profits safe and privatized while socializing the externalized costs of the mess. Ah yes grasshopper, Japan has been a good 51st state so far.
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Time for a sing-a-long: Spam, Spam, Spam, Spam, Spam, Spam, Spam, Spam, Wonderful Spam!
(Acct. mason5566 should be disabled.)
Shove your fucking wimpshields up your shit stained ass
If Tyler was not busy counting his gold bars or banging de hoes - he might get rid of this shit spam. Buy a good bike - buy a Ducati.
Damn right Freddie. Do you have one? I've got a few - my favorite one to ride is my 2004 ST4s. Man I love that bike. And it's not like the Jap bikes are much cheaper to own these days.
I can't explain it, but I'm getting an uncontrollable desire to want to buy some motor cycle fairings. But I don't own a motor cycle...
DavidC
Damn those silver-tongued marketing devils! Why can't they fill us with an uncontrollable urge to eat (say) vegetables?
There are videos on youtube of a guy in Canada measuring dangerous levels, evacuation levels, from the rain on his windshield.
Will you PLEASE wake up and smell the Roses?!?!?
THERE IS NO NEW RECESSION!!
Get it??
There is a DEPRESSION that has been going on for THREE YEARS NOW!!
ROSIE, wake up and smell the roses. There will be no NEW recession because the OLD ONE is still carrying on as the same DEPRESSION we have been in for 36 months now.
GET IT??
complete with a 1 1/2 year bear bounce
Yeah and the fact that he was bearish a year ago and bullish 6months ago and now is bearish seems to have been forgotten.
+1
same depression, different day...
Surprise. Boards not full. David Rosenberg at least told us to buy gold.
It is not his fault that the FED would pimp the market past everybody's belief.
And what of the moral implications of your investment in agricultural stocks partaking in the rising of food prices on a global scale? Is it still a "good" investment then? Be the change you want to see in the world. Morality before profits.
I think it is a matter of reality. The elite will pimp the price of whatever the majority of people need in the name of GREED.
Just like JPMorgan buying tankers of Oil and sitting offshore until they get the price they want for it.
Your tax dollars working hard for you.
Sink a few of those and that'll dampen the enthusiasm for that racket.
It would also dampen enthusiasm for fishing in that area.
They are actually insured by AIG. So that the taxpayers will foot the bill.
something tells me you're not joking
Plus, the price of oil WOULD go up after such an incident.
So it might be worthwhile for them to sink one of their own smaller tankers? Madness.
Don't sink the fucking thing...I'm thinking you pirate it and use it as a negative PR stunt against the big banks. Hang a few banners from it and tell Jamie and Blythe to Piss off.
Gotta love that Brent / WTi spread sarc on< ):
Actually it might make that racket insanely profitable, don't you think? In fact if it does go down that way, I'd like to know JPM's alibi...
moralistic musings aside...i suspect that the prevalence and popularity of cooking and celebrity chef shows is indicative of a bubble in food...kind of like the house flipping shows before the real estate bubble
I miss those 'flipping' shows...nothing quite like watching a complete moron with a fervent belief that there's a bigger moron then them out there somewhere and laughing as they drown in carry costs for lack of dumber.
Man (vs) COLOSSAL SQUID, comes to mind... It's all contango these days?
right...i knew dentists and doctors and lawyers who were "flipping houses" on the side...one dentist told a friend of mine (after he lost his shirt flipping houses when it all went down) that he had lost more money than she would ever make...(i think he was bragging)
Isn't that like bragging about the pliability of your johnson? Guess he wasn't smart enough to burn em for the insurance.
lol...yes...he is a douche
There is a moral out to this. The TPTB are going to profit regardless. If moral people invest, they can apply the profits to weakening TPTB and helping support those that are harmed (donate to a food bank, for example.)
Please refer comments regarding speculation to Ben Dover, the man with the printing presses.
That's nothing compared to government bonds. Invest in your own slavery!
Self-appointed moral specialists like you really bother me. There is too much money chasing too little food. Get it? What prices investors choose to pay for "agricultural stocks" is irrelevant.
You don't need to be a moral 'specialist' to know that pricing millions of people out of food is a bad move.
Buying the commodity itself may do that. But buying stocks in companies producing food does that how, exactly?
It seems you don't need a moral specialist to point out you are neither....
Go back to Wall St.
Higher ag prices mean farmers will grow more crops to take advantage of higher prices. That should produce a bumper crop. Lower prices drive farmers out of business and we will have a shortage of food.
You've forgotten to consider that higher food commodity prices which millions cannot afford causes an effective shortage of food for poorer people any way.
It depends on what is causing the higher prices. If it's taxpayer-subsidised banks cornering the market by buying 80% of corn production, then yes, it's an immoral act.
But if prices rise because there's been a bad harvest, then that's just tough shit.
He's always been wrong in the timing and response for this market and it manipulation. Won't listen to anything more from him.
+1
Bottom line: what is Rosie's ROR over past calls, at least starting from JH, 2010?
Wrong question.
The correct question is absent government intervention, which is unpredictable on a consistent basis, what have his economic calls looked like.
In reality there dickhead one of Rosie's calls was spot on and that was over the US using the dollar as a policy lever.......remember that one? If you knew how to trade the call, regardless of the policy being on whatever side of morality notwithstanding since it is all about being on the right side of price in the end, right.
And just for the record, what is it that are you buying or selling at this point in time, at what price, and for how long?
Junk bonds. About 8% yield, up 5% ytd.
Suncor when the market bottoms.
Beauty in simplicity, 10/10
Doubles your money in 10 yrs, too.
It's the right question. The market is playing by 2008 rules : bailouts, Bank account gimmicks, Pomo, HFT games, SEC absence, devaluation etc. Bad news = more fed money. It's a fucked up market place.
At the core, he's right and nothing good can come from this. But other than pushing all your wealth into PM since then it's been pure gamble with house rigged for those in the know. Even the gains in equities will not outpace the loss in buying power of the dollar.
"Even the gains in equities will not outpace the loss in buying power of the dollar" BINGO !! WE'VE GOT A FUCKING WINNER!!!
Exactly. I mentioned this yesterday too in another thread. Sure, the price of a stock may go up, but the US Dollars it is valued in will continue to buy less and less. When bread is $10 a loaf, the stock price increase isn't going to feed you.
Buy bakery stocks
Rosie is surprisingly naive. He evidently believes there was some sort of recovery since the last contraction. I would disagree. He calls this a new recession, I would argue we're entering the second phase of a depression and the secular bear market is reasserting itself. But what do I know? I'm just an average Joe trying to navigate the oncoming storm.
WD,
You got that one nailed.
/
I don't think he's being naive. I think he's being politically correct. It's bad form out there to call a spade a spade. Much better to say it's an ergonomic human powered excavator. At any rate, a rose by any other name and all that. I think Roseberg knows exactly what's going on, but he went to the right schools, which means he knows how to use the appropriate language.
Grammar has no purpose but to promote classism.
And there's that, too.
Yep. He has to sell newsletters now.
With all of his un-necessarily hy-phenated words, he'-s lost my ap-plication.
It kinda shows how well the propaganda mills have been doing the past year or so. All those folks who have been unemployed over 99 weeks are out of the system and not showing up anymore. The foreclosures have been hidden from sight as much as possible. Heck, I'll bet half the cities in the US have passed laws outlawing homeless people from hanging out anywhere near a public location where Rosie might hang out.
I've encountered some of these sheltered folks myself lately. They still have a paycheck and things aren't so bad for them, so that's how it is for everyone right?
Rosie is part and parcel of the b.s. system of economic forecasting. He is like a democrat to the republican. Different view but plays the same game. Good cop bad cop, both out to get you and suck you dry.
Oba Mugabe 2's Depression.
I hear what you're saying, but, technically, Rosie's correct in his use of the word 'recession'.
Of course, defining the economic health of the country by changes of absurd aggregates like GDP is laughable, but that's another topic.
"this is not necessarily a buy and hold market"
thank you for stating the obvious!
Unless you're buying and holding PM's.
Or firearms
or long term foods
Done and done. To both firearms and food.
There are two lessons to be learned the past two years.
1) There is no history. This is a new world and nothing meaningful can be learned from anything you look at pre 2007.
2) Governments will intervene to keep the juggled balls in the air. No exceptions. If gold is a threat to them, they will tax gold transactions at 75%. If funding for government spending can't be borrowed from a lender, they will lend it to themselves.
Rosenburg has been wrong only when governments (or quasi government organizations) have intervened to delay the inevitability of fundamentals. His confidence that bonds outperform equities has been astonishingly courageous, and this year accurate so far.
wrong you can look pre 2007 just 3 generations back look pre 1945....same policies till the last part when the gap between the assets and liabilities gets closed via money printing and hyperinflation instead of depression...
No history pre 2007? Isn't everything we're seeing a near repeat of Roman history AD 350+? It all looks pretty similiar to me.
There weren't 7 billion people then entirely dependent on oil flow that can't increase anymore.
That's why it's a different world. Civilization's lifeblood is becoming insufficient.
Principles Crash, Principles. Currency crises, political crises, the unmanageable economic and human burden of a massive war machine, a populace which bought into the authority's propaganda and became saited and complacent.
I would say that there are a lot more in common than different.
Only thing missing now are the barbarians at the gate.
Rome also turned into a huge welfare state. That sounds awfully familiar.
"The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance."
Interesting discussion of that Cicero 'quote' here:
http://message.snopes.com/showthread.php?t=28532
1.) Ever hear "There's nothing new under the sun" ?
2.) There is a limit to government intervention because there are repercussions to government intervention.
"History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme."
"but with the provision of modestly higher inflation, which needs to decline before QE3 is launched"... wouldnt bet they would even need to see a decline, look what the BOE put up with and they dont seem to mind, even talking about more easing now, so Bernanke is probably watching the UK with a special interest.
See? This is the problem with behaving like an asshole. Even when you say something that actually makes sense, you get junked.
You get green from me.
I'm getting tired of working so blacks can sit on their asses.
Why can't blacks do something productive?
Has anyone ever heard of a black based charity helping white children? Just curious, can anyone name one?
Someone name 1 charity run by blacks to help white children. I will drop $25,000 (to the chairty of choice) if someone can find me a charity run by blacks for underprivlaged white children.
TWENTY FIVE THOUSAND DOLLARS
$25,000
(doesn't exist)
Blacks are WORTHLESS
From your previous comments I gathered you are pretty ignorant but now we know you
are ignorant and obscene. .
I'm willing to drop $25,000
What are you willing to drop?
Prove me wrong.
Blacks are worthless.
What was your net worth again, Mr. Dabolina, Mr. Bob Dabolina?
Maybe you just aren't working hard enough!
Who did those evil rich people give to give to and how much?
What did they produce that bettered the lives of people?
Looks like a list of people who made their money through voluntary exchange, and not by stealing. Now you could put together a similar list of a different group.....
Capitalism seeks creation through voluntary production, and socialism seeks power through controlled production.
Jordan: Special Olympics, Boys and Girls Club of America
Kobe: After-school All-Stars and Cathy's Kids
Robert L. Johnson: ClubCharity.com - Auction site to raise money for tons of other charities by selling signed memorabilia
Jay-Z: Boys' and Girls' Clubs of America, Red Cross, Artists for Peace and Justice
Alphonse Fletcher Jr: Fletcher Foundation, supporting educators, scientists and (gasp!) economists
etc etc etc
I'm sorry I don't have concrete amounts, but since they often donate their time and get others out to donate while also giving their money, I think I can give them a pass. Perhaps you don't think Amex cards, asset management, athletics, and entertainment "better the lives" of people...and that may be true for the angry douchebag set, I can't say.So what have you produced that "bettered the lives of people"? Tax forms? A write-off or three? LOL
Zero Hedgers have a problem with the government, not other Americans. Once the government stays out of our lives, everyone will have to fetch for themselves or die.
Government should only help those who are proven sick.
why bother with that mentality?? let the sick die too or you might just be left with the sick