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David Rosenberg: The Recession Is A Virtual Certainty And Here Is How To Trade It

Tyler Durden's picture




 

David Rosenberg released an emergency note today, in addition to his traditional morning piece, in which the sole topic is the upcoming recession, which he says is now a "virtual certainty". He also says what Zero Hedge has been saying for month: that 2011 is an identical replica of 2010, but with the provision of modestly higher inflation, which needs decline before QE3 is launched. Sure enough, a major market tumble will fix all that in a few days, and ironically we can't help but continue to wonder whether the Fed is not actively doing all in its power to actually crash the market to about 20% lower which will send practically flatten the treasury curve and give Bernanke full reign to do as he sees fit. However, as long as the BTFD and mean reversion algos kick in every time the market makes a 2% correction, such efforts are doomed, which in turn makes all such dip buying futile. We give the market a few more weeks before it comprehends this. In the meantime, with each passing day in which "nothing happens", the recession within a depression looms closer, and soon it will be inevitable and not all the money printed by Bernanke will do much if anything (except to terminally wound the dollar). In the meantime, for those who wish to prepare for the double dip onset, here is Rosie's checklist of what to do, and what not.

Recession Protection

 

Moving increasingly to immunize portfolios from the rising prospect of a recession scenario while providing returns that cash, deposits and T-bills just can't rival what we are doing at the investment committee and asset mix level of our firm.

 

Let me begin by saying I don't think this will be classified as a "double dip" per se since so much time has elapsed since the last downturn. Be that as it may, it is evident that we will be going into another recession — I think at this point it's only a question of whether it has already begun — with the levels of output, employment and income all lower now than they were prior to the last contraction phase.

 

Plain-vanilla, garden-variety business expansions and contractions that are influenced by the manufacturing inventory cycle tend to have recessions separated between five and 10 years apart. That was certainly the experience that economists came to understand and appreciate in the post-WWII era. But in balance sheet cycles, which involve deleveraging, rising savings rates and asset deflation, recoveries are fragile and susceptible to the smallest of shocks and typically, recessions occur every two to three years. This puts a recession by 2012 squarely in the spotlight.

 

I have already pegged a U.S. recession as a virtual certainty, and respected economists like Martin Feldstein in recent days stated the odds were 50-50 and Larry Summers is at 1-in-3. I am fairly certain that Paul Krugman is close to where I am on this file. All that said, recession risks are rising and until we receive another positive policy shock from the Fed, these risks will remain acute for some time yet. We are replaying the summer of 2010 but only when the white knights of radical monetary and fiscal stimulus resurfaced did the "double dip" chatter subside and give way towards renewed growth and risk appetite — at least for a few months.

 

You can still make money for investors without taking undue risk ... and without having to shift into the ultra-safe world of zero percent-yielding cash or one percent GIC rates either.

 

Hedge funds that really hedge the risk or relative-value strategies that can go short low-quality and high-cyclical equities while going long a basket of high- quality and low-cyclical equities will be a money-maker in this environment. Those that have the capacity to short economically-sensitive stocks that trade at cycle-high P/E multiples may have an advantage in such a weakening macro and market environment.

 

A focus on hybrids or income-equity portfolios that have low correlations with the direction of the equity market and generate a yield far superior than what you can garner in the Treasury market makes perfect sense.

And if there is anything out there that is remotely close to "recession proof" it is corporate balance sheets and so an emphasis on credit is going to be critical — the idea is to be selective and identify those entities that have a single-A balance sheet but pay out a BBB yield.
We are believers that gold and gold mining stocks will prove to be profitable investments as the economic downturn inevitably prompts more money printing, not just out of the Fed, but other major central banks as well.

 

Commodities in general, energy and raw food in particular, should be a core position, as they are behaving less cyclically and more as a secular growth theme linked to the rapidly rising incomes in the emerging market economies.

The economy and risk assets typically hit a speed bump in a recession. That much is true, but investment ideas and opportunities within the market can still flourish even in a bear phase or a correction — cash should not have to be an option.

 

The key is to be positioned appropriately for the part of the business cycle we are on the cusp of entering. In a nutshell, what that means is carefully- constructed investment strategies and portfolios that preserve capital, minimize cyclical exposures, enhance yield and thereby provide for significant risk- adjusted returns—even in a recession. In light of these heightened volatile times, we also realize that this is not necessarily a buy and hold market, and the ability to move into equity markets and take advantage of weakness should also be a part of the strategy

Source: Gluskin Sheff

 

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Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:11 | 1522535 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  I'm loving this Quasi Yen selling right now...  Good thing I'm smart enough not to trade Yen or chf right now!   Think I'll add some more Aud on this high 1.06's area...

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:33 | 1522605 Taku
Taku's picture

Side note: Japan bailing out nuclear co. Using taxpayers to pay victim compensation.

http://www.eco-business.com/news/japan-passes-law-supporting-nuclear-plant-operator/

BTW: I may have missed tape here, but radiation going wild in Japan. Today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-02/tepco-reports-second-deadly-radiation-reading-at-fukushima-plant.html

Anyone know how long until this wind blows here, or when the 3-eyed fish arrive?

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:34 | 1522719 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Looks like Japan is going to follow the US model of helping to keep those corporate profits safe and privatized while socializing the externalized costs of the mess. Ah yes grasshopper, Japan has been a good 51st state so far.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:26 | 1522843 mason5566
mason5566's picture

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Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:44 | 1522894 NaN
NaN's picture

Time for a sing-a-long:   Spam, Spam, Spam, Spam, Spam, Spam, Spam, Spam, Wonderful Spam!

 

(Acct. mason5566 should be disabled.)

 

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:59 | 1522916 HardwoodAg
HardwoodAg's picture

Shove your fucking wimpshields up your shit stained ass

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 01:23 | 1523012 Freddie
Freddie's picture

If Tyler was not busy counting his gold bars or banging de hoes - he might get rid of this shit spam.  Buy a good bike - buy a Ducati.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 06:50 | 1523127 Marge N Call
Marge N Call's picture

Damn right Freddie. Do you have one? I've got a few - my favorite one to ride is my 2004 ST4s. Man I love that bike. And it's not like the Jap bikes are much cheaper to own these days.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 09:05 | 1523282 DavidC
DavidC's picture

I can't explain it, but I'm getting an uncontrollable desire to want to buy some motor cycle fairings. But I don't own a motor cycle...

DavidC

Sat, 08/06/2011 - 08:02 | 1530033 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Damn those silver-tongued marketing devils! Why can't they fill us with an uncontrollable urge to eat (say) vegetables?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 06:32 | 1523118 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

There are videos on youtube of a guy in Canada measuring dangerous levels, evacuation levels, from the rain on his windshield.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:35 | 1522610 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

Will you PLEASE wake up and smell the Roses?!?!?

 

THERE IS NO NEW RECESSION!!

 

Get it??

 

There is a DEPRESSION that has been going on for THREE YEARS NOW!!

 

ROSIE, wake up and smell the roses. There will be no NEW recession because the OLD ONE is still carrying on as the same DEPRESSION we have been in for 36 months now.

 

GET IT??

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:15 | 1522685 caerus
caerus's picture

complete with a 1 1/2 year bear bounce

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 02:45 | 1523048 La Guillotine
La Guillotine's picture

Yeah and the fact that he was bearish a year ago and bullish 6months ago and now is bearish seems to have been forgotten.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 09:03 | 1523360 Ponzi Unit
Ponzi Unit's picture

+1

same depression, different day...

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:11 | 1522538 rocker
rocker's picture

Surprise. Boards not full. David Rosenberg at least told us to buy gold.

It is not his fault that the FED would pimp the market past everybody's belief.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:11 | 1522539 adeptus
adeptus's picture

And what of the moral implications of your investment in agricultural stocks partaking in the rising of food prices on a global scale? Is it still a "good" investment then? Be the change you want to see in the world. Morality before profits.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:17 | 1522553 rocker
rocker's picture

I think it is a matter of reality. The elite will pimp the price of whatever the majority of people need in the name of GREED.

Just like JPMorgan buying tankers of Oil and sitting offshore until they get the price they want for it.

Your tax dollars working hard for you.  

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:21 | 1522574 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

JPMorgan buying tankers of Oil and sitting offshore until they get the price they want for it.

 

Sink a few of those and that'll dampen the enthusiasm for that racket.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:32 | 1522606 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

It would also dampen enthusiasm for fishing in that area.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:53 | 1522644 Doña K
Doña K's picture

They are actually insured by AIG. So that the taxpayers will foot the bill.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:14 | 1522684 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

something tells me you're not joking

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:33 | 1522715 TaxSlave
TaxSlave's picture

Plus, the price of oil WOULD go up after such an incident.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 00:08 | 1522931 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

So it might be worthwhile for them to sink one of their own smaller tankers? Madness.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:35 | 1522723 SlipStitchPass
SlipStitchPass's picture

Don't sink the fucking thing...I'm thinking you pirate it and use it as a negative PR stunt against the big banks. Hang a few banners from it and tell Jamie and Blythe to Piss off.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:55 | 1522771 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Gotta love that Brent / WTi spread   sarc on<  ):

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 08:34 | 1523285 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Actually it might make that racket insanely profitable, don't you think?  In fact if it does go down that way, I'd like to know JPM's alibi...

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:32 | 1522711 caerus
caerus's picture

moralistic musings aside...i suspect that the prevalence and popularity of cooking and celebrity chef shows is indicative of a bubble in food...kind of like the house flipping shows before the real estate bubble

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:51 | 1522763 snowball777
snowball777's picture

I miss those 'flipping' shows...nothing quite like watching a complete moron with a fervent belief that there's a bigger moron then them out there somewhere and laughing as they drown in carry costs for lack of dumber.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:58 | 1522776 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Man (vs) COLOSSAL SQUID, comes to mind...   It's all contango these days?

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:02 | 1522787 caerus
caerus's picture

right...i knew dentists and doctors and lawyers who were "flipping houses" on the side...one dentist told a friend of mine (after he lost his shirt flipping houses when it all went down) that he had lost more money than she would ever make...(i think he was bragging)

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:23 | 1522837 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Isn't that like bragging about the pliability of your johnson?  Guess he wasn't smart enough to burn em for the insurance.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:36 | 1522870 caerus
caerus's picture

lol...yes...he is a douche

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:42 | 1522621 seek
seek's picture

There is a moral out to this. The TPTB are going to profit regardless. If moral people invest, they can apply the profits to weakening TPTB and helping support those that are harmed (donate to a food bank, for example.)

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:28 | 1522707 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Please refer comments regarding speculation to Ben Dover, the man with the printing presses.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:35 | 1522727 TaxSlave
TaxSlave's picture

And what of the moral implications of your investment in agricultural stocks...

That's nothing compared to government bonds.  Invest in your own slavery!

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:53 | 1522765 Reese Bobby
Reese Bobby's picture

Self-appointed moral specialists like you really bother me.  There is too much money chasing too little food.  Get it?  What prices investors choose to pay for "agricultural stocks" is irrelevant.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 00:13 | 1522936 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

You don't need to be a moral 'specialist' to know that pricing millions of people out of food is a bad move.

Sat, 08/06/2011 - 08:07 | 1530036 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Buying the commodity itself may do that. But buying stocks in companies producing food does that how, exactly?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 03:06 | 1523056 Captain Planet
Captain Planet's picture

It seems you don't need a moral specialist to point out you are neither....

Go back to Wall St.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:32 | 1522858 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Higher ag prices mean farmers will grow more crops to take advantage of higher prices. That should produce a bumper crop. Lower prices drive farmers out of business and we will have a shortage of food. 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 00:14 | 1522938 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

You've forgotten to consider that higher food commodity prices which millions cannot afford causes an effective shortage of food for poorer people any way.

Sat, 08/06/2011 - 08:10 | 1530042 BigJim
BigJim's picture

It depends on what is causing the higher prices. If it's taxpayer-subsidised banks cornering the market by buying 80% of corn production, then yes, it's an immoral act.

But if prices rise because there's been a bad harvest, then that's just tough shit.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:18 | 1522559 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

He's always been wrong in the timing and response for this market and it manipulation. Won't listen to anything more from him.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:43 | 1522624 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

+1

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:20 | 1522571 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

 

Bottom line: what is Rosie's ROR over past calls, at least starting from JH, 2010?

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:26 | 1522589 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Wrong question.

The correct question is absent government intervention, which is unpredictable on a consistent basis, what have his economic calls looked like.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:40 | 1522617 RoRoTrader
RoRoTrader's picture

In reality there dickhead one of Rosie's calls was spot on and that was over the US using the dollar as a policy lever.......remember that one? If you knew how to trade the call, regardless of the policy being on whatever side of morality notwithstanding since it is all about being on the right side of price in the end, right.

And just for the record, what is it that are you buying or selling at this point in time, at what price, and for how long?

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:34 | 1522716 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Junk bonds.  About 8% yield, up 5% ytd.

Suncor when the market bottoms.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 07:15 | 1523149 Chip
Chip's picture

Beauty in simplicity, 10/10

Doubles your money in 10 yrs, too.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:39 | 1522737 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

It's the right question. The market is playing by 2008 rules : bailouts, Bank account gimmicks, Pomo, HFT games, SEC absence, devaluation etc. Bad news = more fed money. It's a fucked up market place.

At the core, he's right and nothing good can come from this. But other than pushing all your wealth into PM since then it's been pure gamble with house rigged for those in the know. Even the gains in equities will not outpace the loss in buying power of the dollar.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:01 | 1522782 sgorem
sgorem's picture

"Even the gains in equities will not outpace the loss in buying power of the dollar" BINGO !! WE'VE GOT A FUCKING  WINNER!!!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 07:59 | 1523224 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Exactly.  I mentioned this yesterday too in another thread.  Sure, the price of a stock may go up, but the US Dollars it is valued in will continue to buy less and less.  When bread is $10 a loaf, the stock price increase isn't going to feed you.

Sat, 08/06/2011 - 08:11 | 1530046 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Buy bakery stocks

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:20 | 1522573 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Rosie is surprisingly naive. He evidently believes there was some sort of recovery since the last contraction. I would disagree. He calls this a new recession, I would argue we're entering the second phase of a depression and the secular bear market is reasserting itself. But what do I know? I'm just an average Joe trying to navigate the oncoming storm.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:44 | 1522626 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

WD,

 

 

You got that one nailed.

 

/

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:57 | 1522652 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

I don't think he's being naive. I think he's being politically correct. It's bad form out there to call a spade a spade. Much better to say it's an ergonomic human powered excavator. At any rate, a rose by any other name and all that. I think Roseberg knows exactly what's going on, but he went to the right schools, which means he knows how to use the appropriate language.

Grammar has no purpose but to promote classism.

 

 

 

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:16 | 1522686 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

And there's that, too.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:33 | 1522863 Irwin Fletcher
Irwin Fletcher's picture

Yep. He has to sell newsletters now.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 01:50 | 1523026 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

With all of his un-necessarily hy-phenated words, he'-s lost my ap-plication.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:43 | 1522748 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

It kinda shows how well the propaganda mills have been doing the past year or so. All those folks who have been unemployed over 99 weeks are out of the system and not showing up anymore. The foreclosures have been hidden from sight as much as possible. Heck, I'll bet half the cities in the US have passed laws outlawing homeless people from hanging out anywhere near a public location where Rosie might hang out.

I've encountered some of these sheltered folks myself lately. They still have a paycheck and things aren't so bad for them, so that's how it is for everyone right?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 00:20 | 1522946 kito
kito's picture

Rosie is part and parcel of the b.s. system of economic forecasting. He is like a democrat to the republican. Different view but plays the same game. Good cop bad cop, both out to get you and suck you dry.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 01:25 | 1523013 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Oba Mugabe 2's Depression.

Sat, 08/06/2011 - 08:14 | 1530049 BigJim
BigJim's picture

I hear what you're saying, but, technically, Rosie's correct in his use of the word 'recession'.

Of course, defining the economic health of the country by changes of absurd aggregates like GDP is laughable, but that's another topic.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:23 | 1522576 PuppetRepubl1c
PuppetRepubl1c's picture

"this is not necessarily a buy and hold market"

thank you for stating the obvious!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 02:33 | 1523041 burncycl
burncycl's picture

Unless you're buying and holding PM's.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 02:58 | 1523052 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Or firearms

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 08:05 | 1523229 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

or long term foods

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 09:50 | 1523582 burncycl
burncycl's picture

Done and done. To both firearms and food.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:24 | 1522578 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

There are two lessons to be learned the past two years.

1) There is no history.  This is a new world and nothing meaningful can be learned from anything you look at pre 2007.

2) Governments will intervene to keep the juggled balls in the air.  No exceptions.  If gold is a threat to them, they will tax gold transactions at 75%.  If funding for government spending can't be borrowed from a lender, they will lend it to themselves.

Rosenburg has been wrong only when governments (or quasi government organizations) have intervened to delay the inevitability of fundamentals.  His confidence that bonds outperform equities has been astonishingly courageous, and this year accurate so far.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:42 | 1522620 ZackLo
ZackLo's picture

wrong you can look pre 2007 just 3 generations back look pre 1945....same policies till the last part when the gap between the assets and liabilities gets closed via money printing and hyperinflation instead of depression...

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:25 | 1522700 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

No history pre 2007?  Isn't everything we're seeing a near repeat of Roman history AD 350+?  It all looks pretty similiar to me.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:36 | 1522729 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

There weren't 7 billion people then entirely dependent on oil flow that can't increase anymore.

That's why it's a different world.  Civilization's lifeblood is becoming insufficient.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 02:06 | 1523030 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

Principles Crash, Principles. Currency crises, political crises, the unmanageable economic and human burden of a massive war machine, a populace which bought into the authority's propaganda and became saited and complacent.

I would say that there are a lot more in common than different.

Only thing missing now are the barbarians at the gate.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 08:09 | 1523239 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Rome also turned into a huge welfare state.  That sounds awfully familiar.

"The budget should be balanced, the Treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed lest Rome become bankrupt. People must again learn to work, instead of living on public assistance."

Sat, 08/06/2011 - 08:20 | 1530056 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Interesting discussion of that Cicero 'quote' here:

http://message.snopes.com/showthread.php?t=28532

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:06 | 1522793 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

1.) Ever hear "There's nothing new under the sun" ?

2.) There is a limit to government intervention because there are repercussions to government intervention.

 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 05:31 | 1523101 blackbaron
blackbaron's picture

"History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme."

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:24 | 1522581 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

"but with the provision of modestly higher inflation, which needs to decline before QE3 is launched"... wouldnt bet they would even need to see a decline, look what the BOE put up with and they dont seem to mind, even talking about more easing now, so Bernanke is probably watching the UK with a special interest.

Sat, 08/06/2011 - 08:23 | 1530059 BigJim
BigJim's picture

See? This is the problem with behaving like an asshole. Even when you say something that actually makes sense, you get junked.

You get green from me.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:30 | 1522587 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

 

I'm getting tired of working so blacks can sit on their asses. 

Why can't blacks do something productive? 

Has anyone ever heard of a black based charity helping white children? Just curious, can anyone name one?

Someone name 1 charity run by blacks to help white children. I will drop $25,000 (to the chairty of choice) if someone can find me a charity run by blacks for underprivlaged white children.

TWENTY FIVE THOUSAND DOLLARS

$25,000

(doesn't exist)

Blacks are WORTHLESS

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:35 | 1522611 lawrence1
lawrence1's picture

From your previous comments I gathered you are pretty ignorant but now we know you

are ignorant and obscene. .

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:54 | 1522615 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I'm willing to drop $25,000

What are you willing to drop?

Prove me wrong.

Blacks are worthless.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:14 | 1522814 snowball777
snowball777's picture

 

Shawn Marion: $105M

Kenneth Chenault: $125M

Gary Payton: $130M

Kobe: $140M

Jay-Z: $150M

Alphonse Fletcher, Jr: $150M

Don King: $290M

Berry Gordy, Jr: $325M

The Cos: $450M

Magic: $500M

Jordan: $525M

Robert Johnson: $550M

Tiger Woods: $600M

OPRAH: $2.7B

What was your net worth again, Mr. Dabolina, Mr. Bob Dabolina?

Maybe you just aren't working hard enough!

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:35 | 1522868 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Who did those evil rich people give to give to and how much?

What did they produce that bettered the lives of people?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 04:47 | 1523088 prole
prole's picture

Looks like a list of people who made their money through voluntary exchange, and not by stealing. Now you could put together a similar list of a different group.....

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 08:14 | 1523244 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Capitalism seeks creation through voluntary production, and socialism seeks power through controlled production.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 08:09 | 1523237 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Jordan: Special Olympics, Boys and Girls Club of America

Kobe: After-school All-Stars and Cathy's Kids

Robert L. Johnson: ClubCharity.com - Auction site to raise money for tons of other charities by selling signed memorabilia 

Jay-Z: Boys' and Girls' Clubs of America, Red Cross, Artists for Peace and Justice

Alphonse Fletcher Jr: Fletcher Foundation, supporting educators, scientists and (gasp!) economists

etc etc etc

 

I'm sorry I don't have concrete amounts, but since they often donate their time and get others out to donate while also giving their money, I think I can give them a pass. Perhaps you don't think Amex cards, asset management, athletics, and entertainment "better the lives" of people...and that may be true for the angry douchebag set, I can't say.

So what have you produced that "bettered the lives of people"? Tax forms? A write-off or three? LOL

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:02 | 1522658 Doña K
Doña K's picture

Zero Hedgers have a problem with the government, not other Americans. Once the government stays out of our lives, everyone will have to fetch for themselves or die.

Government should only help those who are proven sick.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:27 | 1522706 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

why bother with that mentality?? let the sick die too or you might just be left with the sick

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:37 | 1522875 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Why should people have to be responsible adults and earn their keep when they can live off others from cradle to grave?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 02:21 | 1523036 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

They manage it in Norway, Sweden and Denmark. Maybe the US needs to become a bit more social democratic?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 04:24 | 1523084 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Break it down by $(Euros, etc)/capita and see the error in your thinking.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 06:23 | 1523115 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

You're talking about the fact that the US has a higher per capita GDP than those countries? Even so, human wellbeing outcomes are far better in those "poorer" countries.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 06:40 | 1523120 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

Says who?  How do you measure wellness?

I've lived in Sweden since 1998 and I can testify that it sucks ass.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 04:50 | 1523090 prole
prole's picture

You mentioned Norse regions who have not yet imported millions and millions and millions of free riders. We have them in America, hence your Socialist dream already in place, in Detriot. I think Detriot needs to become a bit more Social Democratic?

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 06:27 | 1523116 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

I wonder if you got rid of all the free riding immigrants in the US, will the banksters, corporations and billionaires start giving ordinary working Americans a bigger share of the country's wealth and earned income?

Hmmmm...I didn't think so.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 06:47 | 1523124 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

double post

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 06:46 | 1523126 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

You think it's better in your socialist dream? In Sweden, an even smaller portion of the people own all the wealth.  In the US, they say 10% own 90% of the wealth.  In Sweden, 0.01% own 99%.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 07:55 | 1523214 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

Its the fact you have to donate your first born child to Swedish state slavery until they turn 21 years old which is the real problem.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 08:15 | 1523248 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

Yeah, I guess I could take them away from their mother and move someplace else.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 08:20 | 1523257 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Social democratic?  How are you going to do that without controlling people?  Doesn't individual liberty mean anything to you?  We are not ants, and this is not a colony.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 08:32 | 1523279 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

I see, you have the individual liberty to be ripped off by mortgage lenders, to see your jobs shipped off to China, to see your medicare funds given to the big banks, and to choose between the Demo-publicans and the other Demo-publicans, both of whom want to give bigger tax breaks to the billionaire class.

How is the experience going for you?

btw Social Democracies have strong democratic systems, strong citizens rights, cheap socialised healthcare.

And they typically give their citizens many different political parties to choose from. Better than the US system of Corporate Party 1 and Corporate Party 2 anyway.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 10:41 | 1523766 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

As I have said above, corporatism is my enemy. You are stuck on classism, but that is yet another tool used against We the People by the fascists. There's nothing wrong with being a billionaire as long as you are also not a fascist. You can be one without being the other.

Strong citizen's rights you say? Do those nations respect my natural and unalienable right to carry a concealed firearm? The last I knew, at least one of those supposed utopian nation states you mentioned above requires even the police to ask permission before they can carry a firearm. Don't you realize how much of a joke what you wrote is? Rights? Give me a break. My rights are not "citizen" rights either. They are natural and no government grants them.

As a statist however, you'll never understand.

Sat, 08/06/2011 - 08:44 | 1530081 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Sweden is often touted by people who believe the state has a duty to impose 'fairness' in outcomes rather than opportunity. However, Sweden only became wealthy because in the 19th century they switched from statist to very laissez-faire policy. Google the subect and you'll quickly discover that Sweden's prosperity vis-a-vis other countries peaked in 1970 (4th) around a decade after the adopted socialist policies; it's been downhill since then, as the inevitable consequences of masking price-discovery and incentivising laziness have been taking their toll on the economic efficiency and moral character of the Swedish people.

That's not to say that the US' present kleptocratic oligarchy is superior; but comparing two turds in an attempt to find the one that smells most like a rose is a waste of time, in my opinion.

As an example of Sweden's 'strong citizens rights': I give you their treatment of Wikileaks' Julian Assange.

As for Norway - its citizen's wealth comes not from the supposed 'efficiency' of its socialism, but from its enviable situation as a major oil exporter. In this regard it's like Saudi Arabia, without the stupid veils, but with all the stultifying effects of giving people something for nothing for several generations. I wouldn't want to be in either country when they run out of oil; too many of their population no longer know how to work for a living.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:36 | 1522612 PuppetRepubl1c
PuppetRepubl1c's picture

IT'S CALLED REPARATIONS! OPEN YOUR WALLET YOU WHITE MURDERER!

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:00 | 1522656 karzai_luver
karzai_luver's picture

NBA bitch. now pony up fool. Like you have 25bucks or were at all honest.

 

Check Tiger or is he white with green now?

25bucks again.

clown. at least step your game up out of the gutter.

 

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:37 | 1522732 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Its more of a demographics issue Bob, the money goes where its most needed and where it will have the biggest impact either on a humanitarian or developmental level. The thought of a group of souls from Mogadishu getting together to help say, dyslexic children from Texas is a little far-fetched. When they aren’t dodging bullets they are trying to crawl to the nearest refugee camp for a plate of rice, most of them have never even seen a white child before. But im sure if they were as wealthy as the US they would be helping someone less well off. In general, and statistically, black people are more charitable actually, they give a lot to church and millions send money off to relatives and communities in dire need of assistance. Im sure its not a race thing though, as i said, the money goes where its deemed most needed. But you probably dont want to think about that because you're a bitter useless bastard.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 05:18 | 1523099 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

8 junks, no replies - obviously don’t have the fucking backbone for it. What, cowardliness is associated with racism, never?

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:52 | 1522766 indygo55
indygo55's picture

whoaaa! Ever heard of Nelson Mandella? There are many, many more but just this one, if you understood what he endured, would change your way of thinking. You cannot say this and not be virtually shot down by blacks and white alike. This statement is outragous.

 

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:01 | 1522785 indygo55
indygo55's picture

whoaaa! Ever heard of Nelson Mandella? There are many, many more but just this one, if you understood what he endured, would change your way of thinking. You cannot say this and not be virtually shot down by blacks and white alike. This statement is outrageous.

 

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:32 | 1522857 HL Shancken
HL Shancken's picture

Nelson Mandela became a Marxist-Leninist early in life and joined a Marxist-Leninist political party controlled by Moscow. His objective was the violent overthrow of the government of S. Africa, and he was arrested, convicted and imprisoned for plotting to do just that, just as any revolutionary in any country would be.

 

Here is Nelson Mandela singing a song in his native language about killing whites, and responding to a reporter in English proclaiming his peacefulness and love.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yC8qQE4Y2Js

 

http://thefinalphaseforum.invisionzone.com/index.php?showtopic=44

 

 

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:08 | 1522799 Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

Pretty disgusting post, Bob.

Welfare restrictions are largely to blame for the demise of the black family. The government made it virtually impossible for families to qualify for welfare when the mother and father lived under the same roof. Pre 1960 photos of blacks present a much different culture than what you see today.

Oh well, you're just following the script of an idiot, in a nation in dire straights. Today, I read an article about Greeks beating Asians and Africans with baseball bats. I'm sure racial violence will soon occur in the US.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:11 | 1522808 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

underprivlaged

If you insist on contributing racist rants, please learn to spell and stop with the bolding.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:23 | 1522832 HL Shancken
HL Shancken's picture

Cultural Marxism is a brainwashing program that effectively prevents people, once sufficiently indoctrinated, from perceiving truth and reality. It instills in the population that politically correct thinking will be rewarded and everything else will be punished. Political correctness is a component of Marxism-Leninism. It was a favorite mechanism of Mao.

 

Communists since the time of Gramsci and before have striven to re-create human nature, to reprogram the population so as to control it and utilize it to its full potential as a servant of the Marxist state. To destroy homo sapiens and replace them with homo sovieticus, the perfect soviet man, was and remains the goal. Political correctness has played a large role in the accomplishment of this goal.

 

The responses to your post, Bob, as well as the large number of junks, represent the powerful effect of political correctness in shaping thoughts and reactions. You have broached a legitimate subject worthy of thoughtful discussion, but in a population which has been indoctrinated by Marxists via the inculcation of political correctness, this is not possible. The issue you've brought up is taboo, shameful, vulgar to anyone who is brainwashed. The indoctrinated have been taught to react to abhor you, to ridicule and shame you. The substance of what you have to say never reaches their brains.

 

It's good to watch Yuri Bezmenov on Youtube. Five minutes and eight seconds sometimes has the effect of undoing a lifetime of politically correct brainwashing by cultural Marxists.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlpODYhnPEo

 

http://thefinalphaseforum.invisionzone.com/index.php?showtopic=44

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:38 | 1522879 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Wow, huge ideas there dude, bit too big for this gig, but i know a little man who would love to discuss them with you...

http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=9jpond&s=7

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 00:16 | 1522937 caerus
caerus's picture

1.  attempt to discredit a legitimate argument by trivializing it with the use of slang..."dude"

2.  make an illogical emotional appeal by linking to a picture of a starving child

 

 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 01:08 | 1523002 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Why dude, whats the argument? That bob is making a stand against his marxist mind manipulators by expressing his obvious undeniable race hate and general ignorance of what charity is? Or that charity is not a matter of need, but a matter of race? If you would only look at the absudity of the argument and stop jumping in with your brain farts you might have thought twice.

"logic", dont make me squirm. They say a madman is someone, not who has lost the power of reason, but one who has lost everything but the power to reason. Its very true. The picture of the kid was to make a contrast between the capacity for empathy, and the capacity for psychopathy - where this demented germ of a human being above wants to think that people are charitable and tolerant only because they are brainwashed into it , who, by the way, also supports the actions of the Norway mass murderer, sorry, i take that back, he recently "withdrew his support when he found out the KGB trained him to do it", ummm, thought i would clear that up before i had to embark on another round of circular gibberish. So yeah, that picture of the kid is an emotional appeal, because the only way to silence a madman is to confront him with a greater madness.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 01:11 | 1523004 caerus
caerus's picture

Your writing makes me illl your logic makes me pity you never speak to me again..dood

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 01:44 | 1523020 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

ach c'mon sweetheart, you dont need to go all "speak to the hand". Ok, maybe you do, once bitten twice shy.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 07:20 | 1523153 caerus
caerus's picture

perhaps i was too hasty...my apologies

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 11:36 | 1523961 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

ahhh the humanity returns, its hard to shake. Not a problem.

Call a spade a spade.

http://history.eserver.org/fighting-fascism/

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 00:07 | 1522928 caerus
caerus's picture

In The Economic Consequences of the Peace, Keynes had written:

Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.
Thu, 08/04/2011 - 01:49 | 1523024 hamstercheese
hamstercheese's picture

good post, thanks...

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 09:13 | 1523414 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Liberty always suffers under debt.  The two cannot coexist.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 00:33 | 1522967 Xavier Doe
Xavier Doe's picture

Awesome post.  The whole hour-and-a-half documentary with Bezmenov is also online (one may have to hunt for it though) and a must-see IMHO.

And if bob_dabolina hadn't outed himself as a flagrant troll before, he has surely done so now.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 02:00 | 1523027 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Sorry but your thesis is bullshit. If it weren't for the fact bob wasn't being blatently racist I might agree. Lets discuss why.

I'm getting tired of working so blacks can sit on their asses. 

Why can't blacks do something productive? 

Because labeling all people of darker skin color unproductive is not a logical statement. Does Bob know every "black person" on the planet Earth? It could certianly be said that their is a portion of any collective population is unproductive, I find there are just as many lazy white people as black people so are now all white people "unproductive". Sorry but Bob is a fucking troll not worth defending, spending his time here to slowly destroy the ZH community and make it a hate rant against everyone not like himself.

Has anyone ever heard of a black based charity helping white children? Just curious, can anyone name one?

All of a sudden charity is what is to be constituted as productive...mmmhmmm.

Blacks are WORTHLESS

So lets break this down

A) Blacks are sitting on their collective asses unproductive which = B) Not giving money to needy white children which = C) Blacks are worthless..........

Great fucking logic /sarc

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 02:16 | 1523034 rambo1028
rambo1028's picture

Wish more people could see this but I fear no one will open their eyes till they are loaded into the trucks headed for camp...

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 02:47 | 1523046 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

I'm a Marxian and I am enjoying watching this ponzi crony capitalism scheme come down all around us, beautifully documented day by day by ZH. Thank you all.

HL do you have any idea what you are talking about? "Homo Sovieticus"? The USSR was a true communist state for less than 2 months of its entire lifespan and that was right at the start. After that it became a centrally controlled authoritatarian state. Completely different.

As for Bezmenov - he is a smart guy. I believe that explains why you have fallen for his reverse indoctrination hook line and sinker.  :D

Bezmenov's comments around Americans no longer being able to tell fact from fiction, no longer able to come to correct conclusions from verifiable facts is telling however. Perhaps it explains the Tea Party effect on Congress.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 03:06 | 1523055 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Pay Day Today, we might agree on the morality of food prices, but please, "Marxian"? What is this? A Marxist from Mars?

Have you ever traveled in any communist state? Do you really believe that Communism without a controlled authoritarian state is possible?

Per definition, as soon as you follow Marx, you follow the Statist path, and therefore you decrease personal liberty. Read you Marx again...

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 03:18 | 1523063 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

Marxist from mars :) That is a good one. I use that term to differentiate from the pejorative use of the term "Marxist" which is so common around the place.

If you were talking Leninist or Stalinist, yes they are definitely statist authoritarian models of government. Marx - I do not believe that he thought that dictatorial rule was a pre-requisite of his political economy.

Personally I think that democratic socialism will work and work well. Everyworker is also an owner of the enterprise that they work in. Personal freedom and ability to influence the work place goes up, not down.

 

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 04:59 | 1523092 prole
prole's picture

At least you outed yourself as a Commie, now please change your avatar to something red with a hammer/sickle, and change your screename to something denoting blood, and the murder of millions of Christians. If you would do that you would save me the trouble of ever reading the first couple lines of your posts ever again, now go murder Polish officers.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 06:03 | 1523109 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

prole, relax!

 

Read again: "Personally I think that democratic socialism will work and work well. Everyworker is also an owner of the enterprise that they work in. Personal freedom and ability to influence the work place goes up, not down."

This does not sound like marxism at all, it's more like what the Germans call Social Democracy... Their model is to give the workers one third of the seats in the board of directors, which, after all, made possible for Germany to "retain" their industrial base at home. Funnily, it kept wages quite low, increased the money companies spend to increase their worker's skill, etc. Somehow it works better then pure slash-and-burn capitalism - if you want to build something more lasting than making the "quick buck".

I can live with that.

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 06:46 | 1523123 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

Thanks. I am always fascinated by the echoes from the McCarthy era still bouncing around the US. As if you are supposed to stop thinking because someone yells out "Commie!" or "Islamist!" (or whatever the catch cry of the day is).

As an aside, I'm a big fan of Richard Wolff, one of the few economists in the US who considers themselves 'Marxian'.

http://www.rdwolff.com/

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 08:36 | 1523291 Bob
Bob's picture

I didn't know he labels himself with the "M word."  Social democracy, it seems to me, is the best outcome we capitalists can realistically hope for with the waterloo of death and despair we're headed for at the hands of our oligarchs.  If we don't get wise, we're gonna get corrected in an inevitable and bloody socialist revolution.  Give the masses no tenable alternative and the eventual outcome should be obvious. 

Here's a piece I just ran across a few minutes ago by Wolff:

http://www.truth-out.org/tale-two-lootings/1312292014

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 09:10 | 1523394 Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

Thanks.

The 'M-word' (Marxian)

http://www.rdwolff.com/classes

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 09:22 | 1523450 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Pay Day Today, you are no different than millions before you, and you fail to recognize the fact that fascists use people like you as tools.  It has been going on for all of recorded history, and I doubt it will change any time soon.  Don't you ever wonder why your utopia never materializes?  It's because those who believe as you do are never in power and will never be.  A fascist oligarchy will always be in power, and your pipe dream of equality will never happen.  This is of course completely ignoring the fact that to acheive what you want, you would have to heavily control others--something that is completely counter to liberty of course.

You wrote that you're enjoying our system collapsing.  Which system exactly?  The system I see collapsing is the fascist oligarchy's, not the one based on liberty.  Do you understand the difference between corporatism and capitalism, or is all profit to you evil?  I welcome the collapse too, but I do not plan to sit around and see it replaced with your forced utopia either.

Sat, 08/06/2011 - 08:49 | 1530085 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Blacks are worthless? Ever heard of Jimi Hendrix, Charlie Parker; John Coltrane, Stevie Wonder, etc, etc?

Their works bring a lot of value to my life.

I guess you're tone-deaf, Bob.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:28 | 1522595 lawrence1
lawrence1's picture

The upcoming recession?  Pardon me, but we are obviously there and never emerged from it since 2008.

As for his recommendations, okay, but others like Sinclaire, Rogers and others figured this out several years ago.

Not necessarily a buy and hold market?  Brilliant.  But, I guess for a Wall Street person, to get it, however late, is an accomplishment.  But what about systemic risk, currency collapse?  Actually, I retract ... he doesnt really get IT ...

 

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:31 | 1522602 oldmanagain
oldmanagain's picture

This time is different is always limb waiting to break but I think it this time is different.   The derivative mountains and the coming shortages of resources are hard obstacles.  Add in a big disparity in wealth.  Factor in political unrest that is misdirected, this is not your normal cyclical ebb and flow.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:43 | 1522622 Thievery Corporation
Thievery Corporation's picture

Traditions bitchez

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:45 | 1522630 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Am I the only one getting kicked out after every page load?

Is ZH trying to tell me something.

Seems a waste since I just log back in and create two page loads.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:07 | 1522796 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   Must I tan your hide?...   Clear your browser/ do a reboot /  ( open your clean browser and loginto Z/H) reset a new password/ shut down again/ wait 10 seconds and restart.   A bull in a China shop you are... Yen

Sat, 08/06/2011 - 08:52 | 1530089 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Don't forget to upgrade your processor, install ECC memory, and re-format your hard disk. Simples!

Thu, 08/04/2011 - 09:23 | 1523477 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

It has been happening to me too this morning.

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:46 | 1522631 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m5oGLn5XF8E&feature=youtu.be

yid wants to cut SS to fund wars.......for israhole of course. man when are people going to wake up about these pinheads? this guy should be dangling at the end of a rope a long time ago........

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:20 | 1522829 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture
White House unveils broad plan to fight domestic radicalism

... involving federal departments not usually associated with national security....

...In President Obama's written introduction to the new strategy, he cited threats from "Al Qaeda's hateful ideology" as well as domestic neo-Nazis and anti-Semitic groups....

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-domestic-radicals-2...

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 23:40 | 1522884 caerus
caerus's picture

fyi...i was wrong about the cut in military salaries the other night...just heard about friend getting deployed (according to his wife) "somewhere in Africa"

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 21:47 | 1522632 AmazingLarry
AmazingLarry's picture

"Virtual" means not real. So big Dave here is staying a recession is not really a certainty. Okie dokie. I normally like DR a lot but this is just goofy.

 

Wed, 08/03/2011 - 22:26 | 1522702 caerus
caerus's picture

yeah...he's covering his ass...btw

Pee-wee: Is this something you can share with the rest of us Amazing Larry? ....

lol

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