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David Rosenberg's 12 Bullet Points Confirming The Double Dip Is Here

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Funny how much can change in a month. After everyone was making fun of David Rosenberg as recently as June, not a single pundit who owns a suit and can therefore appear on CNBC dares to mention the original skeptic. Why? Because he has was proven correct (once again) beyond a reasonable doubt (and while we may disagree as to what asset class is best held into the terminal systemic collapse, Rosenberg has been one of the most steadfast and consistent predictors of the 'non-matrixed' reality in the world). Yet oddly enough there are still those who believe that a double dip (or, more accurately, a waterfall in the current great depressionary collapse accompanied by violent bear market rallies) is avoidable. Well, here, in 12 bullet points, is Rosie doing the closest we have seen him come to gloating... and proving the the double dip or whatever you want to call it, is here.

Bloomberg News has an article titled No Double Dip Yet With U.S. Economy Punching Up Growth Figures. Completely amazing, including the commentary from the economists in the article who seem to prefer forecasting based on coincident or lagging indicators. Because the data are subject to substantial revisions in the future, it is absolutely imperative that economic forecasters draw on their judgement and experience when making their predications (have a look at On Economy, Raw Data Get a Grain of Salt on the front page of today's NYT for case in point). Here is the reality.

  • Challenger layoffs have surged 80% in the past three months. That will lead to higher jobless claims in the near-term.
  • Consumer buying intentions for big-ticket items has sagged to recession levels. Watch the savings rate in the next six months — this will be key to the macro outlook.
  • Productivity has declined for two straight quarters and actually, unless companies wilfully want their margins to implode, will soon respond by shedding labour input.
  • This already goes down as the weakest recovery on record despite unprecedented policy stimulus. Every dollar of balance sheet expansion at the Fed and the Treasury since the beginning of 2009 has generated 80 cents of incremental GDP gains. Not only is that a pitiful multiplier but now that there is no more stimulus, it is a legitimate question as to how an economy that only operated on policy steroids for the past two-and-change years is going to perform.
  • There is no doubt that the economy is not yet contracting, but the debate is whether it will start to by year-end. The withdrawal of stimulus is feeling like a policy tightening. And after coming off a mere 0.8% annual rate of gain in GDP so far this year, the question is how the financial shock since mid-year in the form of higher debt levels and equity cost of capital is going to impact an already near-stagnant economy.
  • The data on a three-month basis are following a classic pre-recession pattern and so is the stock market. Only three times in the past did the S&P 500 go down as much as it has without a recession ensuing. Market signals are important and this is what most economists missed in 2007. The 5-year note yield at 0.93% is a tell-tale sign — and is negative in real terms. Even with the speculative grade default rate falling in July to 2.3% from 1.9%, spreads are 150 basis points wider now than they were a month ago.
  • Do these economists realize that S&P financials are down 25% from this year's highs? Can they explain how this fits into their forecast? The economy can hardly grow without credit unless it receives ongoing doses of government support, which for now is no longer forthcoming. The bank stocks are down more from their early highs than they were from January to August 2007 when the downturn was right around the corner.
  • In plain-vanilla manufacturing inventory cycles, recessions are typically separated by five years, sometimes even longer as we saw in the 1980s and 1990s. But in a balance sheet/deleveraging cycle, recessions come more quickly — every two-to-three years. That puts late 2011/early 2012 in the spotlight. The imbalances in housing and debt were not fully resolved in the last recession, unfortunately enough (there is a nifty article on page A2 of today's WSJ, which cites Zillow research showing that only one-third of the 130 housing markets across the country can be considered "undervalued"). In a vivid sign that housing is no longer responsive to interest rates; mortgage applications for new purchases cratered 10.1% in the August 12th week. They have declined now for three of the past four weeks and are at the lowest level since July 2010.
  • In a sign that households are concentrating more on getting their financial conditions into better shape than making that additional debt-financed purchase, the rate of late credit card payments fell to a 17-year low in the second quarter. Of course that is good news for the future, but going on a diet is never easy over the intermediate term (take it from me). The U.S. consumer is on a debt-reduction plan, having taken the aggregate level of liabilities down $50 billion in Q2. If we're not mistaken, Wal-Mart had some pretty cautious things to say about the U.S. consumer yesterday and we see that Dell, having missed its estimates today, also discussed that it is seeing a lack of "confidence" in "both corporate and household sectors" and "uncertain demand" as it cut its guidance for the year.
  • Core Europe is stagnating and the Asian economy is cooling off. The Q2 contraction in Hong Kong GDP was the canary in the coal mine; Chinese industrial production contracted 0.4% MoM (based on a seasonally adjusted basis calculated by Haver Ana lytics) in July as well. We always said that Korea is important to watch because of its global export exposure, and with this in mind we recommend that you read Global Woes Land a Punch in Korea on page C5 of the WSJ. This bodes ill for the U.S. export sector. Also take note that the sharp slowing in core Europe is spreading through the entire continent — have a look at Slowdown Spreads to Central Europe on page 3 of today's FT.
  • We have to understand that recessions are part of the business cycle. There is no reason to be fearful. Just be prepared. Hedge funds that are long high- quality, non-cyclical companies with strong balance sheets and dividend growth and yield attributes while being short small-caps that are highly cyclical and expensive is a money-making strategy in a recession. Hybrids with low equity correlations and BB-like yields, corporate bonds in defensivesectors with a visible cash-flow stream and a pervasive focus on energy, raw food, and gold — that is the ideal portfolio in an environment like this (as far as the food theme is concerned, go to page Cl of the WSJ and have a read of Chinese Hunger for Corn Stretches Farm Belt).
  • Finally, if you're looking for the next shoe to drop, it may very well be in U.S. commercial real estate. We highly urge that you have a look at REITs Losing Haven Appeal on page C6 of the WSJ as well as Buyers Wary of Building Bubble on Cl (institutional investors are starting to back away from what appears to be an oversupplied and overpriced commercial property market in several major cities).

And one final observation on GDP, which pretty much puts the double dip debate to rest:

If you look at the monthly U.S. GDP data, it is already apparent that the U.S. economy is fraying at the edges. The economy contracted in both May and June and has shrunk now in four of the past six months. That sounds pretty recessionary to us. As the chart below shows, over the past six months, real GDP has actually declined at a 1.5% annual rate, which is just about as bad as it got at the worst point of the tech wreck a decade ago.

Forewarned is forearmed.

Source: Gluskin Sheff

 


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Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:03 | Link to Comment anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

Rosie wrong again

we never got out of the first recession

as in we have been and continue to be in a protracted downturn

 

(forgot the attribution - Carl Weinberg)

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:21 | Link to Comment JenB
JenB's picture

Not only is the man brilliant, he has the courage to stick to a longer term vision while sometimes taking a lot of heat over the short term. He is an economist not a trader.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 22:38 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

@JenB

 

I do like Rosie's take on the economy, but this:

There is no reason to be fearful. Just be prepared. Hedge funds that are long high- quality, non-cyclical companies with strong balance sheets and dividend growth and yield attributes while being short small-caps that are highly cyclical and expensive is a money-making strategy in a recession.

is yet more bad trading/investing advice.  There will be no place to hide, just like 2008.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 23:53 | Link to Comment Nobody special
Nobody special's picture

There was a place to hide in 2008 and there is one now as well.

1. If you don't hold it you don't own it, so buy and take possession.

2. In an inflationary market, it pays to have food and necessities as inflation makes them harder to obtain.

3. In a deflationary market, you may not have money for food and essentials, so it still pays to have them.

4. In a hyperinflationary market, you will NEED food and essentials to survive. They maintain and often increase in buying power.

5. In a hyperdeflationary market, you will NEED food and essentaisl to survive. Those with assets you value will often trade a lot for survival.

Seems like food and necessities are the things to hold, regardless of what the turmoil brings. They're only a bad play when the market is stable. 

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:25 | Link to Comment Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

If you print fast enough, the charts still look great, at least until you go off the cliff!

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 19:49 | Link to Comment Tater Salad
Tater Salad's picture

"Rosie wrong"? 

Man "anynonmous" or shall I say "coward" are you misled. 

Hide the wife and kids, I'm afraid they may both leave you if you're that stupid.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 21:47 | Link to Comment marsdefIAnCe
marsdefIAnCe's picture

if you average out the yoy inflation of items from the list tyler posted a couple days ago (gas, pork, heating oil, rice (exploding post-fukushima - lowest performer tied with cotton), etc.) which I think is a pretty fair basket of goods for the nonpaper (real) economy, then you get 41% inflation which implies a 26.6% yoy contraction in real terms if you accept the fed's nominal numbers

 

granted, the numbers may not be that bad, but growth?  not even close.  we never left the recession, a fact all too obvious to working america

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:54 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh great....Rosie saying we're double dipping confirms its all up from here. Gee thanks a lot Rosie! But no doubt he's right, we never left the first collapse and depression...only thing yet to be seen is how much more fiat wallpaper they plaster over it, and if anyone buys it this time or it faceplants..

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:52 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Let's just wait for a sign of god.

untill than, keep buying silver and gold with everything you've got.

 

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:06 | Link to Comment spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

sign of god, you say?

professor krugman has the answer:

http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/16/krugman-calls-for-alien-invasion/ 

sitchin, bitchez.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:53 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

I see recession, but won't listen to Rosie. How's that pay for tips site working out for him?

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 17:08 | Link to Comment adlibber
adlibber's picture

Purty nicely, actually.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:53 | Link to Comment caerus
caerus's picture

shhhh....tryin to make some money on the bear side here...

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:54 | Link to Comment maxmad
maxmad's picture

Rosie Palms  says so...

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:54 | Link to Comment FranSix
FranSix's picture

OT:  Chavez to nationalize gold sector:

 

http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip518294

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:55 | Link to Comment legal eagle
legal eagle's picture

I will take my double dip in mint chocolate chip please

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:56 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Rosie is a funny guy and misunderstood,  His understanding of the macro-trends is not for day to day trades, he looks too far forward for that.  It is sort like using a map of US Interstate system to get from Manattan to Hoboken...

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:00 | Link to Comment Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Exactly, and this is why he has my utmost respect.  Most of these bullshit economists simply react to each daily report and offer zero predicative value.  Rosie's knowledge of economic history and ability to connect macro trends are phenomenal.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:48 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

I think the guy is a human being.  He was traumatized by what happened to him at Merrill Lynch ("One pays a heavy price for being bearish when there is a bull on your business card.")

In that context, I think he's too damn smart not to understand that oil scarcity destroys all his economic models.  But he's been traumatized.  He's walking on thin enough ice telling people the economy is smashed.  

If he then told them there are no longer any cycles and it is all downhill from here to starvation, he'd have no job.  Simply that.  Even if he understood it (and I think he does).

 

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 17:38 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

That's a pretty good oil depletion drives everything thread.  I missed it.  Busy burning oil.

You know, here's the thing.  People want to define the decline by the slope of the right side of the peak.  If it's steep, disaster and death.  If it's shallow, kick back, go to the beach and the technological miracles have time to occur and THEREFORE WILL occur that successfully break the laws of physics.

I think steep is death.  I think shallow gives the ambitious time to notice it and makes them take action to achieve ambition, namely superiority, namely defeat of competition, namely war.

That's the core of my perspective.  Steep = Apocalyptic starvation.  Shallow = inevitable war and Apocalyptic starvation.

Have a look at the recent TOD article on the Bakken.  Did you know the typical well there produces only about 1000 bpd, and is down 75% within about 2 years?  Horizontals die vertically on the graph.  They are already drilling 2500 wells per year just to hold 371 K bpd.  This is not going to be the salvation of the USA.  371K bpd is what Alaska will lose in production over the next couple years.  371 bpd is not nothing, but it's also not significant.  They'll grow it to 400 or 500K max and then declare the only thing stopping them is more investment (from someone that doesn't mind a 1K bpd well going to 250 barrels/day in 2 yrs).

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 17:41 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yeah, I got the latest Bakken stuff... You are well aware of what I post here on the Bakken...

And yes, it is all about the RHS...There will be blood, whose and where, I do not know.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 17:05 | Link to Comment adlibber
adlibber's picture

I kinda doubt he was traumatized that Merrill Lynch/BoA offered him mega millions to stay when he resigned. He was probably also not traumatized to move back home and have the chance to get paid in Cdn bucks, especially now. I bet he is not too traumatized that he left some BoA shares on the table-- the ones that are worth less now than when they were issued. He was NOT traumatized, pretty sure on this, that he would not have to fly out Charlotte.......... rofl. He did pay a heavy price for bering bearish with a bull on his business card, but that price was not his job, dude.  Yes, he is a human being. At this moment it is freaking hot in the good ole north ,and he isn't walking on ice, thin or otherwise. Have a nice day.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 17:10 | Link to Comment adlibber
adlibber's picture

Deleted due to spelling error. We are a fussy lot.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 17:09 | Link to Comment adlibber
adlibber's picture

I kinda doubt he was traumatized that Merrill Lynch/BoA offered him mega millions to stay when he resigned. He was probably also not traumatized to move back home and have the chance to get paid in Cdn bucks, especially now. I bet he is not too traumatized that he left some BoA shares on the table-- the ones that are worth less now than when they were issued. He was NOT traumatized, pretty sure on this, that he would not have to fly out Charlotte.......... rofl. He did pay a heavy price for being bearish with a bull on his business card, but that price was not his job, dude.  Yes, he is a human being. At this moment it is freaking hot in the good ole north ,and he isn't walking on ice, thin or otherwise. Have a nice day.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:56 | Link to Comment loftgroovv
loftgroovv's picture

I just took delivery of 80 more 1oz Silver Maple coins.

Ooohhh yeah. Like it don't cha bitch! :0)

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:00 | Link to Comment dxj
dxj's picture

Why would we listen to advice from anyone who does not understand that the "business cycle" is a product of the central bank?

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:17 | Link to Comment Raynja
Raynja's picture

ahahahaha "the business cycle is the product of the central bank".  that was a good one.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:02 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

 

The Recession upon the Stairs

Yesterday upon the stair,
I met a Recession who wasn’t there
Recession wasn’t there again today
Oh, how I wish Recession would go away
Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:07 | Link to Comment The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

Silver finally poked head <$40 / oz. Can't remember when I saw a change less than $.20 for a week, especially when Au been so strong!!

Big move coming!!!

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 16:41 | Link to Comment Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

When?

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:17 | Link to Comment FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

Rosie is spot on. He was a bit of a deer in the headlights in the 2009 rally but he nailed this entire cycle from 2010 top to now.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:20 | Link to Comment Duck
Duck's picture

Tyler,

Rosenberg is the most informative economist you put on ZH.  Contrary to your great insight into the inner workings of the investment world which created the ZH platform (bank/investment firm research, fixed income, HFT, flash crash,...) most of the economics writing by people with loose wingnuts here is trash.  Hyperinflation 2009, hyperinflation 2010, hyperinflation 2011,... Latest Austrian fad (no data economics!, no one will care a decade from now)...

Good for comments and reads, but not any credibility

What about the smackdown on Tyler by Roubini today on twitter?  Depressionary economics doesn't create hyperinflation unless you go so far out on a limb your chance is one in a million of getting off.  Roubini is the opposite -- insights on economics, no credibility on investments.

And your man Rosenberg:  "Deflationary environment"

Stick to what you know best if you want credibility.  I believe you're self-aware.

Stick to what you're doing if you want traffic by those who can't distinguish.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:27 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

So... the Fed will sit back and watch as the world blows up in a deflationary supernova. Kinda like back in 2008 right? Oh wait, it printed, backstopped and guaranteed $24 trillion in order to prevent that from happening.

This time it will surely be different, or not... only this time the world's central banks will have to add 1 or 2 zeroes to the number in trillions above.

As for credibility, we go with what gold anticipates, which is nothing more than you black swan hedge trade - there's your investment insight, which we presented back on March 18, 2009. Since then gold has outperformed stocks, bonds, and all other assets. Yes, you are welcome. Oh wait, that decision was based on faulty comprehension of economics right?

So thanks for the advice: we will certainly stick to what we are good at.

You are, however, absolutely correct, that in ten years, after the UST has printed about $30-40 trillion in those same bonds whose interest rate can only go to zero as the outstanding notional hits infinity (wink wink), nobody will care about the deflation vs hyperinflation debate for one simple reason...

Lastly, you are more than welcome to read about the edibility of spam at RGE. Your contribution to the readership there will surely be noticed. Actually, perhaps the reason why nobody reads this "brilliant" economist is that anyone who took his 2009 advice to short gold is broke?

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:38 | Link to Comment Duck
Duck's picture

If you're right there's millions to be made on structuring a trade on the difference between inflation expectations in the gold market and inflation expectations between 10 year Treasuries and 10 year TIPS.  Guaranteed millions on convergence, unless you're wrong about which is the better indicator of inflation.

Like I said, don't take investment advice from Roubini...that's what no credibility means.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:43 | Link to Comment ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

TIPS = inflation as measured by the government

Gold = inflation as measured by the market

Big, big difference.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 16:10 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Tyler I only disagree in the sense that the FED/world banksters are trying to shore it all up, no, they planned a total collapse and all actions we've seen from them are just evidence theyre simply making sure it is totaly beyond any repair so they can finally get their 1 world govt and a 1 currency which they totaly control over the prison planet.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 16:24 | Link to Comment Yardstick of Ci...
Yardstick of Civilization's picture

Really?  Totally beyond repair so something else can be ushered in?  Please.  As far as I can tell, the best argument against a total collapse in the markets is that TPTB are (i) getting rich from it, (ii) controlling the masses, and (iii) controlling the politics.

Why on earth would they ever want to change that?  What else can be gained?  Is this one world government somehow going to suck souls out of people and monetize them?

Again, the only faith I have in the system remaining intact (i.e. the stock market not going to zero) is that TPTB have a very strongly vested interest in keeping things how they are.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:34 | Link to Comment caerus
caerus's picture

"no data economics" please elaborate...the austrian school simply posits that the complexity of self-aware individuals participating in a market makes for complex (and, at present, unknown) mathematical models...

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:42 | Link to Comment Duck
Duck's picture

Best explanation of what Austrian Economics is by a Libertarian:

http://econfaculty.gmu.edu/bcaplan/whyaust.htm

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 17:02 | Link to Comment Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

Caplan's old arguments have been refuted by several authors; here is just one example

http://mises.org/journals/qjae/pdf/qjae2_4_1.pdf

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 17:17 | Link to Comment Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

>most of the economics writing by people with loose wingnuts here is trash.  Hyperinflation 2009, hyperinflation 2010, hyperinflation 2011

Yes, incredibly complex systems like the economy and the climate don't admit reliable mathematical models or precise predictions.

At least where I live you can't trust the weather report more than a day or two in advance.

And economics is the worse of the two because it's teleological not causal. Whereas a mindless mass of air moves immediately because of forces like pressure and gravity acting upon it; a human travels to the store to buy a pound of meat because it is part of a sequence of planned steps designed to bring about some outcome (say, entertained guests) far in the future.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 18:08 | Link to Comment caerus
caerus's picture

i couldn't even decide where to drink this afternoon till i got there...predict that...

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 20:18 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

a human travels to the store to buy a pound of meat because it is part of a sequence of planned steps

And when he gets to the store he decides to buy something else, or not.

It's been well said on ZH before. inflation in what you need, deflation in what you own.  Gold excepted.

 

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 04:11 | Link to Comment Keri at Bankste...
Keri at Bankster Report's picture

Another way of putting this is to call it a shift of value metrics.

There was a massive paradigm shift in economics (economics = how people get what they want) when debt became the metric of "value" and "worth."  Indeed, from a purely logical standpoint, it is truly ridiculous for one to think that he's "better off" because he is OWED money.  Yet this is what occurred (most recently in human history, at the turn of the 20C, but it had occured before as well), and this latest occurance coincided with massive technologically-aided cultural diffusion (enforced by war/destruction and globalization) that has created the most interlinked global economy humans have ever seen.  And it is ALL based on debt, and the "debt = worth" value metric.

There will eventually be another paradigm shift (as more local-level human history has played this out before), and this will be the shift of value metrics away from debt and "owed" wealth and over to "instrinct" or "stored" wealth.  Gold happens to be, historically and currently, the dominant global version of wealth storage; also right up there is land.  I think what we are seeing right now with gold and other unemcumbered assets is the beginning (in earnest) of this shift.  People are moving away from the idea of "owning owing," or owning debt and claiming "wealth" due to it, and they are moving instead toward the idea of having assets with no liabilities (ie, those unreliable debtors).

As you say, "inflation in what you need, deflation in what  you own."  What you own (home mortgage, FRN's, bonds, stocks, etc) are all debt-based units.  What you need (food, goods, real tangibles) are valuable by their very nature of being coveted/required, and are non-debt-based metrics.  In other words, they are stored value metrics (incidentally, they are "stores" because the store can be used [like with food] or transferred [like with gold]).  I tell people today to start thinking this way, because sooner or later, we will be back to this value metric, as oppsed to the one underwhich we currently think (debt).  Indeed, be prepared to lose every "thing" (read: all your FRN's, all your debt-money-based "worth," everything with a $ in front of it), because when the shift occurs, these debt units (formerly the price-setters) will themselves suddenly become subject to pricing in terms of the new metric---the stored wealth.  And given that debt inherently has no value, they will be given no value.

The debt-based magic show can only go on for so long before people either tire of it, or figure it out.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 13:00 | Link to Comment DrunkenMonkey
DrunkenMonkey's picture

You took the words right out of my mouth.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 13:02 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Very nice post...

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 15:43 | Link to Comment Hot Shakedown
Hot Shakedown's picture

excellent summary

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:24 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

Recession! It's baaa-aack!

And the local school board approved a 9.3% tax increase last night!

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:36 | Link to Comment That Peak Oil Guy
That Peak Oil Guy's picture

"We have to understand that recessions are part of the business cycle. There is no reason to be fearful."

Actually, we may have to be fearful of this one.  When a fundamental input like oil becomes more scarce the recession is more likely to resemble the waterfall Tyler alluded to in his opener...

Good reading from Gail over at The Oil Drum today.  Though I think she would do well to include an analysis of monetary policy in her work:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8268

TPOG

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:36 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

SPX down almost 0.1 handles!

Wait...wait...ah fuck, it's green.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:49 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Yep, a green close.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 16:07 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

volume running on vapor

give it until September to flush the crap out of it.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:59 | Link to Comment Let them all fail
Let them all fail's picture

Annoyed of people bashing him constantly on here, I always read (before they were $$$) his daily pieces and found them incredibly well done and insightful at the macro level - Now I'm not doing short-term trading based on this stuff but find it incredibly helpful for whats really going on in the economy.  He tells you whats going on, like above, and you make up your own damn minds how to take advantage of it...

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 16:06 | Link to Comment walküre
walküre's picture

It's starting to look alot like Christmas.. ca. 2008 ...

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 18:18 | Link to Comment MarcusAurelius
MarcusAurelius's picture

I like the way Rosie bases his opinion on facts. It does not necessarily mean that he will be right all the time. I don't think he is saying anything that those who understand what a true recovery is didn't get to begin with but it is nice to hear a good dose of reality from time to time. For another growth spurt to occur credit would have to double once again from 25 trillion (pre 2007) to 50 trillion. With the Baby boomer generation now through the major part of their spending years this scenario will not happen which is why credit is contracting not expanding.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 18:18 | Link to Comment MarcusAurelius
MarcusAurelius's picture

I like the way Rosie bases his opinion on facts. It does not necessarily mean that he will be right all the time. I don't think he is saying anything that those who understand what a true recovery is didn't get to begin with but it is nice to hear a good dose of reality from time to time. For another growth spurt to occur credit would have to double once again from 25 trillion (pre 2007) to 50 trillion. With the Baby boomer generation now through the major part of their spending years this scenario will not happen which is why credit is contracting not expanding.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 21:35 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

I guess you really like him ;-)

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 18:28 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i like this:  There is no doubt that the economy is not yet contracting, but the debate is whether it will start to by year-end. The withdrawal of stimulus is feeling like a policy tightening. And after coming off a mere 0.8% annual rate of gain in GDP so far this year, the question is...(end paste)

...what the inflation rate is?  > 1 % = recession?  consevatively. 

and, there it is from him, at the end:  actual real rate of growth = -1.5% FOR THE LAST SIX MONTHS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 19:51 | Link to Comment poor fella
poor fella's picture

Durable goods may actually get a bump...

Seeing as that's how firearms are catagorized. Supposedly this isn't even bearish, since any long term purchase must be weighed agaist alternative investments - new .308, truck, or fridge? It's all good.

Thu, 08/18/2011 - 21:29 | Link to Comment NorthenSoul
NorthenSoul's picture

This already goes down as the weakest recovery on record despite unprecedented policy stimulus. Every dollar of balance sheet expansion at the Fed and the Treasury since the beginning of 2009 has generated 80 cents of incremental GDP gains.

 

I wish we could laughed out the dorr this zombie myth once and for all. The "policy stimulus" COULD NOT have produce gains the way it was designed. Too many tax cuts bullshit and not enough infrastructure projects, which, I remind the GOPers and hysterical Auterians around here, are an INVESTMENT in the USA.

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