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David Rosenberg Presents The Six Pins That Can Pop The Complacency Bubble

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The record volatility, and 400 point up and down days in the DJIA of last summer seem like a lifetime ago, having been replaced by a smooth, unperturbed, 45 degree-inclined see of stock market appreciation, rising purely on the $2 trillion or so in liquidity pumped into global markets by the central printers, ever since Italy threatened to blow up the Ponzi last fall. In short - we have once again hit peak complacency. Yet with crude now matching every liquidity injection tick for tick (and then some: Crude's WTI return is now higher than that of stocks), there is absolutely no more space for the world central banks to inject any more stock appreciation without blowing up Obama's reelection chances (and you can be sure they know it). Suddenly the market finds itself without an explicit backstop. So what are some of the "realizations" that can pop the complacency bubble leading to a stock market plunge, and filling the liquidity-filled gap? Here are, courtesy of David Rosenberg, six distinct hurdles that loom ever closer on the horizon, and having been ignored for too long, courtesy of Bernanke et cie, will almost certainly become the market's preoccupation all too soon.

From Gluskin Sheff

1. The nascent job market improvement was little more than a reflection of deteriorating productivity growth. As such, companies will respond in the spring by curbing their hiring plans. This is exactly what happened a year ago when private payroll gains averaged 207k from January to April and the biggest mistake the emboldened bulls did at the time was extrapolate that performance into the future. No sooner did we mention the likely renewed corporate focus on reviving productivity growth than we saw Proctor & Gamble announce a 5,700 job cut or 10% of its manufacturing work force — and the stock price was rewarded with a $2 advance.

2. The ballyhooed housing recovery represented a weather report. January was the fourth warmest on record, skewing the data, and February looks to be a record for balmy temperatures. As such, we could be in for a setback in the housing data, and the latest weekly data on mortgage applications for new purchases may already be signaling a renewed downturn in sales activity. The volume index for new purchases was down 2.9% in the week of February 17th on top of an 8.4% slide in the prior week and it has been trending down for four of the past five weeks.

3. The European recession is just getting started (See Recession Looms for 10 Nations on page 2 of the FT) and the impact on Asian trade flows is already evident in the data — with Chinese export growth completely vanishing in January and manufacturing diffusion indices flashing modest contraction in February. We are potentially one to two quarters away from seeing a significant shock to the U.S. GDP data from an eroding net foreign trade performance. To catch a glimpse of just how far reaching the Eurozone recession is, have a look at Austerity in Europe Puts Pressure on Drug Prices on page B6 of the NYT.

4. What upset the apple cart this time last year was the run-up in oil prices, followed by a lag with a surge in gas prices at the pump. So instead of getting the 4.0% first quarter GDP growth number in 2011 that many pundits anticipated, we got 0.4% instead — right digits but in the wrong place. The problem was energy costs and what that did to the GDP price deflator — it crushed real economic growth (this time it's not the Arab Spring but heightened Israel-Iran tensions at play). Within 24 hours of the release of that GDP report in late April, the stock market peaked for the year.

Once again, oil prices have ratcheted up and with a lag, we can probably expect a return to $4 per gallon for regular gas at the pumps by the time spring rolls around. The front page of the USA Today makes the case for why $5 per gallon is likely coming ... that would represent more than a $200 billion drag out of household cash flows. As it stands, consumers have responded by cutting back on energy usage at a pace we have not seen in 15 years. Note that motorists in California are already paying north of $4 per gallon. And Brent crude prices have hit record highs in the U.K. in sterling terms and back to 2008 levels in euro terms for the already recession-gripped euro area.

Not only were January retail sales already weak, but we just saw two bellwethers —Gap and Kohl's — all post lower Q4 earnings. Kohl's actually posted its first revenue decline in three years. And we haven't even seen the full brunt of the energy price impact hit home yet.

The transport stocks see what's coming, having peaked on February 3rd, and since then this group has suffered 9 losses out of the past 13 sessions, representing a 4% decline from the nearby peak. This is a bit of a problem for the bulls because the transports never did confirm the new highs that the Dow and S&P 500 made — and the index is now at a critical juncture as it kisses the 50-day moving average on the downslope.

5. This hurdle will likely only become apparent in the second half of the year and it relates to tax uncertainties and the implications for rising personal and corporate savings rates.

First, the top marginal personal tax rate rises to 39.6% from 35% as the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of 2012. A limit on itemized deductions will add a further 1.2 percentage points to the top rate. Second, a new 0.9% Medicare tax on incomes over $200,000 gets imposed ($250,000 for joint filers). Moreover, the top 15% rate on long-term capital gains rises to 20%. And dividends will once again be taxed at ordinary rates — 39.6% for the top income earners. A new 3.8% tax on investment income also gets introduced for incomes over $200,000 ($250,000 for joint filers). The top estate tax rate goes from 35% to 55% (60% in some cases). The estate tax exemption falls to $1 million from $5 million (the gift-tax exemption also drops to $1 million and the rate adjusts hither to 55%). In all, 41 separate tax provisions expire this year.

6. Financial contagion. Just as there is a deep-seated view of economic re-acceleration in the United States, so too is there a widespread consensus that Europe will muddle through. The ECB's massive liquidity infusion last November and the upcoming move on February 29th for what practically everyone hopes will be a huge LTRO (Longer-term Refinancing Operation) take-up has the masses convinced that Europe is out of the woods.

Markets have treated Greece's default with a shrug. But what if a CDS event does get triggered? It is possible. And what if Portugal decides that it wants its bail-out terms renegotiated, as the FT hints at? Spain is doing likewise as well — see Spain Pushes Brussels to Cut Deficit Target as Growth Hopes are Dashed on the front page of the FT and also have a look at Spain Counts Social Costs of Austerity Drive on page 2 of the FT.

The lack of confidence is so palpable that some corporates in Portugal, like Portugal Telecom, trade at a 600 basis point discount to comparable government bonds. Even Italy is far from out of the woods (let alone Spain) — the ECB's intervention efforts may have helped drag 10-year yields down to 5.4% from the recent peak of over 7%, but debt and debt-service dynamics are such that fiscal sustainability can only be achieved, barring an economic boom (which is not in the cards), if yields can break decisively below 4% and stay there.

 


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Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:00 | Link to Comment Likstane
Likstane's picture

 .

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:02 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Liksone wrote,

Got here before you Hendrix, bitchez!

What did you think about the article?

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:03 | Link to Comment Likstane
Likstane's picture

I was trying to be a smart ass before I even read it.  I believe my comment was deleted and or rescinded.  It was directed at you and had no bearing on the article.  I apologize.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:11 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

7. WAR

Wait Wait Wait till the shit hits the fan

 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:18 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

 

The record corporate profits are inflation driven.  This is what happens when the central bank pumps trillions into the economy.  The capital users get the cash first and if they are stupid, like 2005;

1.  Invest in labor and other capital resources.

2.  Over expand based on false profit projections.

3.  Get the shit knocked out of them when reality sets in, see 2007.

Standard operating procedure for politicians and central banks, see 2004 election.  Something tells me the corporation wiz kids are smarter this time around.

 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:21 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

The only "pin" I'm worried about is this constant pessimism from the doomer libertarian community. It is extremely unconstructive and damaging the economy to hoard gold instead of investing in the economy, to save money instead of facilitating credit expansion, and to encourage rebellions against "authority" rather than respect for top economists. These issues are the real issues that face us in the modern economy.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:22 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

You do realize that by holding gold, they have spent their dollars into the economy, creating Keynsian stimulus, right?

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:26 | Link to Comment markmotive
markmotive's picture

Complacent is a light word.

David Stockman says the market is "delusional"

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2012/02/23/david-stockman-says-u-s-stock-market-is-%e2%80%98delusional%e2%80%99/

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:48 | Link to Comment CharlieSDT
CharlieSDT's picture

I really look forward to MDB's comments when he's in the zone.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:30 | Link to Comment markalpha
markalpha's picture

Reply to the link posted by Markmotive: great link but that Toupee was awful

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:16 | Link to Comment Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Correct....just as is spelled out in my thesis.

We are at the peak of extraordinary popular delusions....with regard to the economy, with regard to geopolitics, with regard to God's truth, etc.

The coming "upset" of collective irrational beliefs and expectations is literally the Apocalypse IMHO:

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2012/02/dow-13k.html

Reaching Dow 13K is like reaching an extreme apex of division between popular optimism relative to historical reality.  You all here are mainly focused on how this insanity pertains to the financial world and economy.  However, the elephant in the room is the geopolitical part of the equation since Russia and China spent the last twenty years misleading the West into a false sense of security for the purpose of unleashing a surprise third world war.  Using proxy states like Iran, Israel and America are being lured into throwing the first punches of World War Three.  But make no mistake about it....what's about to unfold was preplanned decades ago by Kremlin strategists...

 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:25 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

MDB wrote:

"...rather than respect for top economists."

Ha ha ha!  That's pretty good!  I'll take the gold though.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:26 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

I am the top economist.  But that was funny.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I couldn't agree more MBD. I was thinking we should have them all rounded up and either shipped of to Guantanamo or a nice private Fema camp. Then we can take their hoarded gold and hand it over to the institutions that are a necessary foundation to this economy. As for their guns we should melt them down to be used in new modern school facilities then we should take their hoarded food and return it to it's rightful owners...the Chinese. After all if it wasn't for them we wouldn't be able to buy all these great trinkets.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:41 | Link to Comment JimS
JimS's picture

That was sarcasm, right?!

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:54 | Link to Comment grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

Economic innovation is driven by early adopters. The decision to mess with the "full faith and credit" of the lifeblood of this economy was less than democratic. The grassroots response has been typically American.  

Libertarians are patriots, and are certainly more consistent with the intentions of the Constitution and founding fathers than robo-signing, unregulated derivatives, and every other shortcut invented and contrived to make big, quick, easy money at the expense of fellow citizens. 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:14 | Link to Comment SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Pack some one elses fudge, MDB pinhead - shove your whole head up their asses. 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:57 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I'd have respect for the "authority" if they had respect for my civil liberties, which according to Thomas Jefferson, were GOD GIVEN.

I'd respect economists if most of them weren't paid to think they way they do by the big banks and the Federal Reserve (MDB, you sound like a uber-left liberal, I've assumed you've watched, "Inside Job" and "Captialism: A Love Story", yes?).  Can you really defend people like R.Glenn Hubbard. Larry Summers, and Nouriel with how much they get paid, and who pays them, for their "analysis"?  Especially when there are really smart and intelligent economists out there willing to think outside the box (which is what we need as that outdated failed economic model of a box erodes) like Stephanie Kelton (MMT) and Umair Haque (Can GDP, its inaccurate and doesn't measure true econ growth)?

And I'd have more respect for the dollar if central banks didn't flood the market with currency, eroding my labor wage and stripping me of my purchasing power for the shit I actually need: like energy, oil, food, and rent.  And I'd invest in other things NOT Precious Metals if I wasn't a sucker.

So call me a "doomer" libertarian..... who BTW, has never had ANY median capital to even consider either option. 

The banks and the corporate-ran government have never considered me, as a worthy citizen, because I don't have a ton of zero or green pieces of paper in my pocket.  Corzine proved that.  And only give a fuck about me if I don't pay my taxes. 

Why should, if I come into money, invest in them?

If you can't find the sucker at the poker table, it's probably you.  And we're finding out, that goes for fuckin' society, too.

"Reality isn't optional."

Thomas Sewell

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:10 | Link to Comment Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

Thomas Sowell? Does he think he's smarter than Paul Krooooooogman, the resident genius economist/Fed shill/Squid apologist at the Sulzberger Times?

"You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality."   Get ready to root for the bad guys; you know, the malcontents who won't get out of the Fed's way and who refuse to show respect for the top economists.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:16 | Link to Comment satan2liberals
satan2liberals's picture

 "to save money instead of facilitating credit expansion," 

 

How in the hell do you facilitate credit expansion without first saving money to start with.

 

Oh let me guess dilute the money supply: (discreetly of course ).

 

When "authority" represents idiocy rebellions are obligated.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:28 | Link to Comment BailoutBandit
BailoutBandit's picture

The only "pin" I'm worried about is the "pin"head.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:35 | Link to Comment Cyrano de Bivouac
Cyrano de Bivouac's picture

MDB, you are the Nijinski of sarcasm.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:34 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

 

As for War Israel does not want to see Obama get re-elected and would be willing to create tension with Iran to create drama and suspense, driving up the price of gas at the pump, the only thing brain dead 85 IQ Americans understands, and do the hot war after the election.

Why would Israel risk a hot war before the election and make Obama a war president like Bush was in 2004?

Israel’s best chance to get Obama out of office is to do everything they can to get the price at the pump in America up to $5 a gallon by election day.

Everyone hates the creeper, even Soro’s, except the 85 IQ crowd, the press, and the elite NYC crowd. 

My two cents in this Nash equilibrium game to oust the creeper in charge.

 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:58 | Link to Comment EINSILVERGUY
EINSILVERGUY's picture

Or could be they don't want Tel Aviv to be a glass parking lot because someone keeps trying to tell thm he wants to destroy them.

Last time someone said that, no one paid attention and 50 million peolpe ended up dead

Just cause you are paranoid doesn't mean that someone isn't out to get you. 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:59 | Link to Comment economics1996
economics1996's picture

I think Israel and Iran are playing a mutually beneficial game of chicken.  Israel knocks the shit out of the Obama "recovery" and gets Americans talking about gas prices.  Iran gets higher gas prices for its #1 export.

Behind the scenes do they really want war?  Israel certainly does not and if it can get a stooge in  the White House to fight another war for Israel and Zionism they certainly would prefer that route.

Iran knows that a hot war would almost certainly draw in the US, why risk it right away?  Wait a few years and America will be broke, the nukes will be up and running and Israel will be all alone.

Game theory, Nash equilibrium, dominate strategy.  

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:39 | Link to Comment WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I don't think the Israelis give a damn who gets elected. It's a wash, Repub or Dem, to TPTB. No one gets into office unless they've been vetted, and so the status quo remains...

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 01:17 | Link to Comment BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

Correct, evidence has been posted on ZH previously that obama was sucking blankfeins cock in some massage house in chicago years ago....look it up    

:o

it was a good thought tho... good reading.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:27 | Link to Comment Van Halen
Van Halen's picture

Vandenberg?
Or just Bernanke laughing at us?

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

You know your rock!
Congrats.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:05 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

<delete>

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:18 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

 

 

<delete>

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:34 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

[deleted]

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:18 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

thought embargo appears to be underway at ZH what gives???????

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:29 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

<deleted>

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:31 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

well played

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:11 | Link to Comment Future Tense
Future Tense's picture

The boys over at ECRI say the bubble popped back in September and they are sticking to their recession call.  Acuthan was on CNBC this morning talking about it:

http://www.ftense.com/2012/02/ecris-achuthan-stays-with-recession.html

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:03 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

ECRI is likely not too significant.

Rosenberg's layout of the information is solid.  I would suggest an omission is the consequence of the payroll tax cut extension on the baseline of fiscal projection on which the whole debt ceiling fight was sourced.  That baseline has been obliterated by the payroll tax cut extension.

Further, the whole issue of Sequester still looms for January upcoming.

Rosenberg missed the debt ceiling Sequester and the baseline hit.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:32 | Link to Comment grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

Eroding the dollar as the reserve currency is a pin. This can come about by a partial international petro-currency shift, or it can happen domestically with individuals using barter, PMs, etc.

Any early signals that dollar confidence is eroding, or any similar flanking moves to lessen the personal cost of a depreciating dollar will require a response - either a change in policy or an attempt to quell the actions.

The Fed influences with interest rates and promissory notes. Confidence in currency is like confidence in a business partner. It'll stand some stress, but exceed the limits of trust and the partnership is in jeopardy.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:07 | Link to Comment JennaChick
JennaChick's picture

Even the algos don't want to trade anymore. Well done, central planners!

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:15 | Link to Comment SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

The problem is, Likstane, you are doing it wrong. See below.

 

:-)          

 LOL Facebook Twitter connected computer junkies - the CB radio, solar power, hand tools and guns are coming to an EMP event near you soon !

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:35 | Link to Comment Likstane
Likstane's picture

Thanks Ag-geddon. I'll stick with the CB also. Just getting an avatar was a major production for me. Maybe I should go back to my garden.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:02 | Link to Comment SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Robert Heinlein put it best. “A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.” 

Robert A. Heinlein

So, congratulations on the avatar, and don't stop there. Any one with the foresight to have a garden, and the skills to make it work, is on the right track. 

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 03:57 | Link to Comment Antipodeus
Antipodeus's picture

It's one of my favourite Heinlein quotes, and all very inspirational.  EXCEPT that it's written in the context of a character who is effectively IMMORTAL, and thus has somewhat more time on his hands than the rest of us mortals.  Give me a dozen or so lifetimes and I could probably qualify for a couple of dozen professions, too.

 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:00 | Link to Comment battle axe
battle axe's picture

My choice, number 6. Also a Middle East War for good measure. Hell pick them all. But number 6 looks like the best bet.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:26 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

Beat me to it.  Pick them all.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:01 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

I'll take $100 on the 4-1-2 Trifecta, please.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:07 | Link to Comment Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

Might as well lay the $100 on all 6!

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:11 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

I was more going for the order.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:40 | Link to Comment Likstane
Likstane's picture

50 FRN's on the 4-6 quinella, plus 10 for the win on 1(inside rail)

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:02 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's curious that there is no mention of war. A good war would serve them all well. Obama would have his election assured (even though I think that happen anyway unless he goes up against Ron Paul). A war would justify the market collapse so they have an excuse, plus it would be a good excuse for rising fuel costs. Problem solved. Now let's go bomb some brown people and liberate them from the heavy burden of their gold and oil.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:24 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

War is the ultimate scapegoat. Our current leaders are too spineless to ever take respnsibility.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:12 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

not if romney's people can persuade the up-coming convention to place ron paul as mitt's running mate

jmo

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:27 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

If it's the other way around with Ron Paul being President, then I'd agree. Romney is a populist and he'll do whatever keeps him in office.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:08 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

This differs not particularly from any other politician in office.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:04 | Link to Comment Gloomy
Gloomy's picture

Rosenberg unfortunately is wrong much more than he is right. He's a permabear and I lost a bundle paying attention to him and to Shilling.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:22 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

Fiat is being pummelled, so shorting anything is a risky bet.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:07 | Link to Comment macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

 

“I can make a firm pledge,” he said in Dover, N.H., on Sept. 12. “Under my plan, no family making less than $250,000 a year will see any form of tax increase. Not your income tax, not your payroll tax, not your capital gains taxes, not any of your taxes.”

He repeatedly vowed “you will not see any of your taxes increase one single dime.”

-- Barry Soetoro 2008

 

 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:13 | Link to Comment macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

Is Iran Conflict Increasing Sausage Costs?

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,817372,00.html

 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:13 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

Brilliant!!! :-))

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:30 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ macholatte

+ 1 for the history lesson.

But, we all knew he was a liar then and a liar now.  Who will spend a billion dollars to become re-elected.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:34 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Hey, give the guy credit...he didn't LIE (for once)!

Taxes haven't gone up for those making under $250K.

However, what has gone up is:

Gas

Oil

Food

Energy Bills

College Costs

Gold

Silver

Public Transit

Netflix

Sporting Event Tickets

Health Care

I mean, it's pretty ingenious, if you ask me......what politicans and their propaganda campaigns (usually led by former corporate lackeys) can do to fool the people into thinking they aren't "lying" to them. 

Just don't ever mention inflation (the TRUE hidden tax), but as long as you don't lower taxes (while people's earning power goes dry), you can intellectually fuck them right up the ass!

 

 

 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:06 | Link to Comment Crack-up Boom
Crack-up Boom's picture

I had a sad but humorous exchange with a liberal co-worker at the time over that.  I bet that Obummer would end up raising taxes for everyone (who pays taxes).  My coworker (well educated) was shocked that I could doubt the O.  I reiterated my opinion and retired to my office.  She followed me with a clip from the WaPo saying "no, see - it says here in the Post that he won'r raise taxes on anyone earning less than $250k, so he won't."   I don't know which was worse - learning that this smart, well-educated, north of middle-aged adult could still drink so much kool-aid or learing that she clipped Obama articles out of the Post.  Scary.       
 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:05 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Does Bernanke know that? I don't think he cares. He is determined to inflate the whole thing to the moon and then suddenly retires for personal reasons. Goldman sucks will send him a "thank you God" check.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:13 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Yea, pretty much the daily routine now.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:11 | Link to Comment battle axe
battle axe's picture

Thanks for the link. That could get Ugly very quickly....

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:37 | Link to Comment farmerjohn2112
farmerjohn2112's picture

Damn... +1 for digging that up.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:50 | Link to Comment Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

Smell test says more Zionist agit-prop

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 02:57 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"Fool me once, shame on you -- fool me twice...and I won't get fooled again" - G.W. Bush

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:08 | Link to Comment Fortunes Favor
Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:11 | Link to Comment Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

some more good tonic for all the toxic hyper frenetic MSM cheerleading being rammed down our throats recently, the spectacle of which is itself a "leading indicator" of the massive economic dislocation leading to an imminent collapse. what else is new?

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:12 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

LMFAO, as if any of this shit makes any difference when they are printing literally billions every day and buying futures contracts.

Jesus Christ, how many day and months, day after day and month after month, of IN YOUR FACE market propping do you need to witness before you stop with the 'analysis' of the 'market'?

For god's sake, let it go.  The shit you've been doing for the last decades DOESN'T APPLY TO THIS SHITFEST OF OBVIOUS FRAUD.

If we can only follow this up with some absolute horseshit analysis on the 'technicals'...that would be awesome. 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:17 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The market can only be manipulated for so long before something blows up. Maybe it's a margin call, maybe Apple blows up. Who knows? But eventually something will and when the scramble for liquidity starts in this non liquid low volume market begins it will be ugly.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:14 | Link to Comment Doña K
Doña K's picture

I will be shorting Apple in May as I posted before.

The first fund headed for the exits will be the big winner. Unless, Bernanke has indeed a deal with the top six hedgies as it's rummored. 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:17 | Link to Comment itstippy
itstippy's picture

Hush now Dr. E; you'll wake up the baby.

Bernanke saved the financial system. He pulled it back from The Brink.  It's more robust than ever before.  We don't talk about systemic risk, moral hazard, excessive leverage, toxic assets, asset bubbles, or exit plans.  Let the baby sleep for God's Sake!

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:21 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

You guys have simply GOT to embrace the Lesson of 2011.

Lesson of 2011: Governments will do ANYTHING at all to keep the juggled balls in the air.  They will kill.  They will steal.  They will throw people in jail.  They will redefine words.  They will change contracts retroactively.  They will do anything.  If you get in the way, you're dead.

They robbed GM bondholders.  They are robbing Greece bondholders.  They killed Gadaffi.  They threw Strauss Kahn in jail until he resigned his IMF post, and then they had a conscience attack and turned him loose.  They reacted to the Birthplace of Democracy suggesting there be a democratic referendum by removing the country's PM and installing a puppet.

THEY WILL DO ANYTHING.

You guys who buy gold to try to escape it all are delusional.  Gold is insignificant, but if it ever became significant (perhaps absorbing money that would otherwise buy Treasuries) then those gold buys and sells will have a transaction tax imposed.  Maybe 60% will do it.

The only way it stops is from things they can't control.  Geology's oil.  Or bullets in elite brains.

For those who think it's taking a long time, go back and look at the history of various major events.  The US revolution in history books talks about the Boston Tea Party and then Declaration of Independence and then Washington winning.  The Boston Tea Party was in Dec 1773.  The first gun fire at Concord and Lexington was April of 1775.  If you absorbed the history, you think the events were the week or month after.  From Tea Party to Yorktown was 8 years.

Upheaval doesn't happen fast.  Our sensibilities are defined by TV and the internet and we want fast response to everything.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

+55

 

Rosie lost me at " (this time it's not the Arab Spring but heightened Israel-Iran tensions at play). "

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:25 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

That was weak, agreed.

If people had any idea of the logistics difficulties the Israelis face in such an attack they would blow it off.

Worse, they would not have a target.  The Iranians have spread their program out widely across the country.  You can't hit any one thing that is vital.  

They aren't stupid.  They just output 2.4 million barrels/day, now, with sanctions on, just the same as they did last July, with no sanctions.  The sanctions are stupid.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:16 | Link to Comment _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

1. http://cnsnews.com/news/article/gallup-finds-unemployment-climbing-nine-...

Unemployment in the U.S. rose to nine percent in mid-February, up from 8.3 percent a month earlier, according to a new Gallup survey.

Oops.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:27 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

No sooner did we mention the likely renewed corporate focus on reviving productivity growth than we saw Proctor & Gamble announce a 5,700 job cut or 10% of its manufacturing work force — and the stock price was rewarded with a $2 advance.

Hence the problem.  When the fuck are people going to realize that the motive of profit by corporations, a safe and secure job career, AND cheap consumer goods are ALL in DIRECT CONFLICT with each other?

Corporate focus on reviving productivity growth

Only means that the workers who are LUCKY enough to have a job, will be doing more (and not getting compensated for it).  Happening at my job already; 10 people sacked, divisions are now consolidated and everyone is doing tw otimes more work lately (including me). 

There's a word for this phenomenon that has happened in this corporate "buyer's market": "SERFDOM".

 

 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:23 | Link to Comment rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Well, here's the other issue as we recently saw at Hecla Mining.....labor was saved by not doing maintenance work that should have been done so that management would get their bonuses and the shareholders would get something else, a screwing.

 

Now their mine has to be shut for a year and $20 million (in addition to lost production) spent to clean up  what should have been routine maintence.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:29 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

This could pop the bubble..White House says IAEA report confirms Iran is violating UN security council resolutions with Uranium enrichment

http://ransquawk.com/headlines/206265

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:31 | Link to Comment anonnn
anonnn's picture

Backstop, Sen B Wheeler, and  the WHY of Senators

  The original concept of U S Senators and how they were selected, is an inviting oddity. Curiously, it makes surprising sense by understanding the concept of backstop*, as in baseball.  [Montana Sen. Burton Wheeler 1923-1947 explained backstop to Kenneth Rexroth who wrote of it in his autobio .]

US Senators were not elected by the voting public, but were chosen by a small number of State offficials. Only later, in 1913, was the system changed to direct election by public voters bu, importantly, the office of US Senator retained its trump advantage over passage of all legislation.

Now consider backstop:

*backstop: a fence, screen etc, especially one behind the catcher in baseball, serving to stop balls [legislation?] leaving the playing area. [Curious, aint it?]

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment anonnn
anonnn's picture

So. Cal gas already over $4 per gallon. [Arco]

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:08 | Link to Comment Alio
Alio's picture

$4 per gallon? HAHAHA! In inflated euros we pay $8.9 per gallon already for gas, TODAY! (€1,8 per liter) !!

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:11 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

But since our national obesity rate is much higher than yours it evens out

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:41 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Do you dipshits REALLY BELIEVE that the Central Bankers in charge of this hideous reality show we call "life" give a damn if Barack Obama is re-elected? Haven't you been paying attention for the past - oh, I don't know - 100 years or something?

There's ALWAYS another banker/elitist/rich-dick-licking asswipe waiting in the wings to take over the reigns of the Oval Office. They've made damn sure that's how it is. All they have to do is switch from the "D" brand to the "R" brand every so often, just to keep up some semblance of choice in our political system.

Because, no matter how much people will cry "Democrats, Republicans - they're all the same" in between presidential election years, the brainwashing has been successful enough to make them believe those are the only sane and viable options.

Clueless dolts such as some commenters on this site - and people I know in real life, such as my father - think we have socialism. Wrong!

I'd take socialism over what we actually have - corporatism.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:14 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Bring back the Whigs and the Tories. And the Free Soil Party. 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:42 | Link to Comment Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Only 6?

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 17:57 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I haven't seen Robo around for a couple of days. I wonder if his mom's basement flooded or something.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:29 | Link to Comment Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

Robo most likely licking his wounds from his 100 share CROX and DECK positions

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:10 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The earning beat rate this quarter has been below the 10-year average (60.4% vs 62%). Volume is at decades low. 

But the bot beat rate (bots beating other bots in the HFT Matrix) is high. 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:14 | Link to Comment FreeNewEnergy
Fri, 02/24/2012 - 22:53 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

The Mighty Mogambo Guru has a blog!  Wonderful news!

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:17 | Link to Comment eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

War, yes as #7 but then we really are at war already, militarily and on other fronts. I would like to add:

# 8 Loss of confidence in currency and government IOU"s.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:18 | Link to Comment rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

#7....Ron Paul suddenly leaps ahead in the polls, putting the Bernanke put in doubt....

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:36 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Where's this guy coming from? We've already been there done that.

Another article about the way things used to work. He should have at least waited until a single f'n dip returns to the BFTD.

When I first read Rosenberg back in Dec 2008 I followed him. Then after the Fed's QE1 and he was still saying the sky was falling I thought to myself, "this guy doen's know the power of the Bernank." Now why is he again taking the same chance? Worse: I too think this time it is different although because of something different.

I think the Fed's computers have been holding their stock purchases and overall market valuations up through various fronts and putting those purchases into off record computer memory. The elites are offloading at the current inflated market values.

The Fed will then sell their current purchases back to the public after the crash. A crash which the Fed percipitates. Later the Fed will move their losses onto te tax payers in whatever un-audited manner they choose.

Who can argue with an infinite money supply? Certainly not Mr. Reason.

Conclusion: Sounds like Rosenberg went short too soon.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:33 | Link to Comment Mark123
Mark123's picture

I tend to agree with you....but still I think something will happen that makes the predictions of rosie, shillings etc look like utopia.  We have to keep in mind that the economy is far too complex to manipulate long term.

 

Interesting times we live in.  Too bad 98% of humanity does not understand or even care.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:33 | Link to Comment Mark123
Mark123's picture

I tend to agree with you....but still I think something will happen that makes the predictions of rosie, shillings etc look like utopia.  We have to keep in mind that the economy is far too complex to manipulate long term.

 

Interesting times we live in.  Too bad 98% of humanity does not understand or even care.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 18:31 | Link to Comment SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Oh, no - here come the Klingons from Uranus - set phasers on stun, or lube up for another ass fucking, depending on your proclivities.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 20:26 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Proclivity , Nice word choice!

Sat, 02/25/2012 - 12:07 | Link to Comment nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

They are broke.

Nothing to loose

 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 19:48 | Link to Comment Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Live_Free's link is a plug for a Joo paper.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 21:37 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

What do you think about negative interest rates on "short term" paper?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!