This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Death Cross For The Dow Trannies

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Remember how a whopping month ago the Dow Trannies were supposed to be the Dow Theory signal that was sure to send the S&P above the 1500 resistance? It is time to revisit the chart, which after a furious collapse has just followed the S&P into entering the Death Cross. It is truly odd how we never hear about the Dow Transports any more on Comcast's finance-stand up comedy fusion station any longer.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:04 | 1569612 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Last time we had a death cross was in August 2010.  How did that work out for bearish bets?  

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:05 | 1569620 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Beeing long now is a bet on QE3 > 1 T $

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:07 | 1569635 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

QE3 $1.4 trillion is the largest number I have seen (Kudlow's).

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:20 | 1569695 nodhannum
nodhannum's picture

Sorry slaughterer, but you have to get rid of those mammaries...all I can think about is getting my face in there!

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:33 | 1569747 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Forget QE3, unless we have a 20% downdraft in the markets its not coming. And Kudlow is a moron.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:06 | 1569877 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

The USD is too low for QE3.  And the USD-JPY is on the brink.  Any more monetary stimulus and the USD will collapse lower, pushing up the yen.  If the yen goes higher, the YEN CARRY TRADE IS TOAST.  Thus massive deleveraging from all the big players, yen pushes even higher,  Japanese economy implodes, and a bigger market meltdown.

No QE3. break in case of emergency. 

 

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:36 | 1570022 ffart
ffart's picture

If you are a central planner, and just looking at stocks and the DXY and then QE3 is a green light once the euro implodes, while guaranteeing massive inflation in real terms for anyone who doesn't trade worthless fiat paper.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 21:00 | 1571054 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

I didn't know that Kudlow is the Fed Chariman

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:44 | 1569791 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

qe 3 in disguise after gold revaluation

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:05 | 1569623 WALLST8MY8BALL
WALLST8MY8BALL's picture

Sorry but I cannot stop staring at those tits!

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:07 | 1569640 SumSUN
SumSUN's picture

I know eh!

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:08 | 1569645 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Thanks, but you should focus on the gold chain between them.   

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:11 | 1569658 caerus
caerus's picture

there's a chain?

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:15 | 1569668 anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

Sorry but I cannot stop staring

just zoom out a little before the shave

 

http://bit.ly/nLzqJl

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:06 | 1569626 anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

sincere apologies for the Ritholtz link

Worry About Important Things — Not The Death Cross
Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:20 | 1569696 Waffen
Waffen's picture

doesnt look to good for 00 and 69

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 20:43 | 1571027 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@anynonmous

I'm not going to pad Bitch Ritholtz's traffic.  He is an epic douche.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:07 | 1569638 Waffen
Waffen's picture

its hard to be mad at a comment like that when its provided by epic boobs

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:08 | 1569646 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Bearish bets on QE2 got vaporized.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:36 | 1570023 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

ewe, JW. That was so ugly and just plain bad. lol With crap like that you know it's the end.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:38 | 1569770 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Those vapoized bears still thought it was a market.  It isn't.  Anybody who still thinks it is a market and are willing to take a trade based on market forces are at risk of being vaporized.  All that matters is understanding the scam.  Any large drops in prices will be met with an equal and opposite force driving prices back up, and a little extra on light volume to punish anyone with bearish thoughts.  This allows the central banks to keep slowly buying up gold.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:13 | 1569908 Ponzi Unit
Ponzi Unit's picture

I learned that hard the hard way.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:48 | 1569806 maxmad
maxmad's picture

But, But its different this time! Wait, whats that in the sky, Tyler?  Is that the Hindenburg?

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:51 | 1569818 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

and between QEs gold bears continue to get buried

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kv9W5Tpzpk

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:05 | 1569875 Arthur Two Shed...
Arthur Two Sheds Jackson's picture

Yea...

 

feelsbadman.jpg

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:10 | 1569653 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

really nice racks. But this is a violation of code if we view this page in a work environment :)

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:12 | 1569666 Silver Dreamer
Silver Dreamer's picture

Yep, I agree.  It would be nice to have a setting that does not load the user profiles to avoid that potential problem too.  Technically anyone viewing this site at work is setting themselves up to be fired.  /sigh

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 20:13 | 1570974 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

Isn't reading blogs at work grounds for being fired anyhow?

I just leave a futures ticker running, but then again, my job is modeling parts in CAD, not researching markets.  Of course, given what I blast out at 120 decibles or so all day long, I think a tiny picture of tits is the last thing that might offend someone walking by.  As long as I remain useful, they don't try to interfere with my relative freedom.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:15 | 1569676 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Many ZHers have asked me to remove the racks.  But if Tyler is going to have a bare-chested Brad Pitt on his Tweets, I am going to keep my tits on my avatar.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:41 | 1569782 MolotovCockhead
MolotovCockhead's picture

Do you happen to be Maria Ozawa? If you are, how about a date?

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:54 | 1569836 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

pay no mind to the bearded bag-pipists that are calling for removal.  You and Pladizow need to get into an argument I think.  I don't care about what, just do it!

 

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:14 | 1569674 chartcruzer
chartcruzer's picture

the only reasone aug '10 was a bottom is QE - lite started.   see the chart

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s206018187]&disp=P

else down down down....

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:27 | 1569723 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well, a whopping QE saved it last time, no such luck this time though.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:32 | 1569740 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

yes... we have every reason to be bullish.

The bull market from 2008 and 9 was in the hope that the economy would recover and dividends would come back at full force. It didn't....

don't expect a DOW 14000 after QE3 or 4.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:35 | 1569748 RemiG2010
RemiG2010's picture

Slaughterer. Could you wear a bra please? Your beatiful tits distract me from the death cross. Thank you.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:34 | 1569750 Tom_333
Tom_333's picture

Maybe you should give some consideration to your avatar. The guy who wrote the piece is talking about Trannies....

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:38 | 1569768 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

Oh my, this picture puts a whole new light on "cross my heart and hope to die"

 

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:41 | 1569781 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

Looking at the picture puts a whole new light on the "cross my heart and hope to die" phrase.  Nice chain, gold isn't it?

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:47 | 1569788 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

QE3 better be big and come at Jackson Hole.  Otherwise these markets are fucked.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:46 | 1569801 mcguire
mcguire's picture

as much as i like puffy nipples, this does not look good at work... "im reading financial news".. "yeah right.. perv".

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:50 | 1569813 covert
covert's picture

the greatest republic ever is decaying from laziness.

http://covert3.wordpress.com

 

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:52 | 1569823 imsaul0968
imsaul0968's picture

The time to buy hold and hope is over, if you'd all like to be added free to our weekly market update of the risk-on/off portfolio(been risk-off since 6/30) send an email to eclark@breakaway-partners.com and I'll add you to the list. When we go back to risk-on, you'll be notified on the weekly update. Portfolio currently +7.5% YTD and invested in short term teasuries in risk-off. Risk-on is a diversified portfolio of ETF's inclusing domestic stocks, int'l, commodities, gold, silver, MLP's and REIT's. Only be long when the conditions seem safe and avoid the big drawdowns, thats the way to build wealth and avoid losing money

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 16:10 | 1570219 fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

Yeah I remember the hindenberg omen in ZH and I made a load of cash.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:04 | 1569614 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

time to go short again

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:05 | 1569625 chartcruzer
chartcruzer's picture

speaking of dow theory..  looks ugly.   transports are confirming melt down.    time to look to load up short for the 5th wave down...

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3225058&cmd=show[s222888455]&disp=P

 

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 17:42 | 1569705 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Not so sure we're in a 4th wave right now. We might be in a wave 2 (intermediate) rally, which could still have a little more upward trajectory before intermediate 3 down, at which time, it's on, bitchez.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:05 | 1569628 Lone Mad Minute...
Lone Mad Minute Medic's picture

This is bullish right?

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:26 | 1569719 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

with a name like death cross , it has to be bullish

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:06 | 1569631 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

I'm too drunk to run them. Any success rate statistics on the death cross for the recent past? I think the death cross has not yielded good results lately(loosely defined) but that's just off the top of my head.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:10 | 1569657 Dasa Slooofoot
Dasa Slooofoot's picture

From Marketwatch:

 

Date of death cross                                  Month    Quarter    6 months     Year

July 2, 2002                                               -5.6%     -11.9%      -7.4%             -7.4%

July 23, 2004                                              1.1%       -1%             4.3%                4.2%

Aug. 6, 2004                                                 5.4%        5.1%          9.2%               7.2%

May 19, 2005                                              1.1%         0.6%         1.7%                4.6%

Aug. 26, 2005                                             0.6%        5.1%          5.7%                4.0%

Oct. 10, 2005                                               2.9%        7.5%         8.3%                8.4%

Jan. 3, 2008                                                -3.2%      -3.4%      -13.5%            -32.2%

July 7, 2010                                                 6.6%       9.2%          16.7%             24.3%

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:12 | 1569669 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Actually here is the full table:

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:08 | 1569644 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

cnbc had a guy from jpm on the air this a.m. who said JPM doesn't own **ANY** usa treasurys because they suck raw ass.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:10 | 1569655 caerus
caerus's picture

death cross bitchez

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:12 | 1569667 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Atta boy, Caerus. Someone had to say it.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:25 | 1569713 UGrev
UGrev's picture

barbarous reclic at 1790ish.. snatch lickers!

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:34 | 1569752 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

That's a good thing, right?

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:45 | 1569796 UGrev
UGrev's picture

I can't think of 1790 and snatch licking, although not mutually exclusive, as being a set of bad things for ANYONE. :)

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:39 | 1569775 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

nom nom

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:11 | 1569659 The Real McCoy
The Real McCoy's picture

Except look at the lower left of your chart...  not exactly death.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:15 | 1569661 kengland
kengland's picture

The selling has all but been taken down to a trickle. Sucking in shorts to fry at close

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:12 | 1569663 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

OT : Obama's US job tour bus was built in Canada

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/canucklehead_obama_bus_ted_gyztvw8...

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:35 | 1569757 Tom_333
Tom_333's picture

That´s change Detroit can believe in

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:16 | 1569687 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Death Cross For The Dow Trannies

Sounds like the title of an epic straight-to-DVD (not even Blu-ray) "B" movie.

And now we return you to your regularly scheduled programming already in progress.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:28 | 1569725 caerus
caerus's picture

lol...like a shemale horror thing...that might work...

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:31 | 1569737 UGrev
UGrev's picture

Complete with horse-head book-ends.. :)

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:40 | 1569777 Shirley Wilfahrt
Shirley Wilfahrt's picture

.....or a Norwegian EMO band....

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:48 | 1569807 caerus
caerus's picture

lol

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:19 | 1569691 gwar5
gwar5's picture

 

Economically a Painful Operation: Death Cross for trannies, if by tranny, you mean the leading indicator is now swinging the other way.

Prediction: When the Tranny Death Cross meets the Hindenberg Ovum, there's going to be a real Head and Shoulders topping pattern.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:22 | 1569699 hambone
hambone's picture

Stocks are rallying again - somebody needs to go tell the bond market @ 2.18 10yr we're not in a depression (unless we are) and tell gold @$1796 we're not going to have hyperinflation (unless we are).  Stocks rule!!!

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:26 | 1569717 mynhair
mynhair's picture

S&P failed at mid bol on the 10 min.  Buckle up.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:29 | 1569732 hambone
hambone's picture

OK, never mind saying anything to Bonds and Gold about this...I guess they know what they're doing.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:30 | 1569736 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Stocks are the short bus.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:23 | 1569709 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

I like the Boobs, just hope we don't get any pricks.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:25 | 1569712 prophet
prophet's picture

G-20. BINGO.  The Great Intervention (GI not QE and TGI for the history books) will be in the vicinity of $5T and will begin a restructuring of the imbalances. 

 

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:33 | 1569745 Cdad
Cdad's picture

It is truly odd how we never hear about the Dow Transports any more on Comcast's finance-stand up comedy fusion station any longer.

No time for such things over at the BlowHorn [CNBC], Tyler.  In case you hadn't heard, its Christmas in August.  Time to chat with shoppers in malls, and feature all the great new colors of assless jeans, and new redundant Apple products being released for previously redundant Apple products.

More stories about shopping!  That's what matters during times like this.

[Someone should tell the executives over at COMCAST that they really should start shopping for CREDIBILITY!]

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:40 | 1569780 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Must....buy....Apple IAssless.....jeans......must shop....

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:36 | 1569759 razorthin
razorthin's picture

On the other hand, this is jeeoostt what we saw last August.  Member?

But don't get me wrong.  I'd like to see a wipe out as much as anyone here.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:36 | 1569760 Gunther
Gunther's picture

 

If you mention the Dow theory, the bearish signal was way earlier:

When the trannies failed to better the last high decisively. In Robert Rhea's time that was 3% higher, after that I have not heard anybody publish a new number.

Moreover, the industrials made a slightly lower high. That together confirms a bearish signal.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:39 | 1569774 Joshua Falken
Joshua Falken's picture

Mark Hulbert of Market Watch blog the Tell says we should NOT worry about the Death Cross as it is seldom right.

 

What Mark and most of the lazy, dumb journalists that fail to do their research properly are missing is that a "Death Cross" only works when both the 50 day and 200 day simple moving averages are moving down at the same time.  This also works for the bullish "Golden Cross" signal where the 50 day and the 200 are both moving up.

The erroniously reported Death Cross in July 2010 was not real as the 200 day moving avaerage was still going up at that time and educated technical analysts ignored it, much like everyone should do with Mark Hulbert.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:47 | 1569797 razorthin
razorthin's picture

On the other hand (I've got 3), McGinley's saying SELL, SELL, SELL!  And McGinley is never wrong.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:42 | 1569785 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

"Death Cross for Trannies"...Sounds like a 70's punk band:-)

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:44 | 1569789 PaperBugsBurn
PaperBugsBurn's picture

Truth, you around? B9K9? Anyone want care to speculate?

by PaperBugsBurn
on Wed, 08/17/2011 - 13:46
#1569517

You're right about different bankster faction. Dr Webster G Tarpley (www.tarpley.net Twitter.com/webstergtarpley ) says it's a hit job from England (the City where Rothscum and Co hang out). He says that Indian guy from S&P is a Brahmin (the banksters grew their opium in India more than 100 years ago). He also says that other dude from S&P is a London School of Economics snob.

Besides, who else but the most powerful banksters would dare do this? I think it's the HSBC crowd -as opposed to the Goldman Scum crowd- who is not interested in risking their investments in Asia and who would lose their juden fetzen power (a major blow) if gold nukes were deployed.

reply

by thetruth
on Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:03
#1569603

Yes, this is the type of info I was looking for.  Do you suppose the hit was  part of the "plan" or was it a result of some bickering amongst factions?  It's hard to know how tight-knit these groups are in reality. 

reply

by PaperBugsBurn
on Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:20
#1569694

I think there is dissent within their ranks for the simple reason that their interests are not monolithic. Remember when Stanley Fisher was proposed for head of IMF? Then they turned him down? To say nothing about that farce with DSK. In that instance I think it was the Americanized banksters who were defending their dollar -against the SDR. No, I really think there is tension within and this S&P hit job is to show the pols in DC (who would lose their parasitic existence if they cut the bread part of bread and circus) who really runs the show.

The basic problem is that printing money shoots up inflation in other powerful countries and destabilizes these regimes. The City banksters have major interests over there (bigger than in the hulk of the us economy) and those regimes will pull the golden trigger before losing their own cushy existence.

What do you think?

edit reply

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:44 | 1569790 FranSix
FranSix's picture

Death Cross image-google search:

http://ow.ly/65KTe

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:58 | 1569848 caerus
caerus's picture

omg i want that guitar

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:47 | 1569803 shushup
shushup's picture

Ah Tyler - you never fail to amuse!

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:48 | 1569809 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

Clearly totally bullish then..

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 14:52 | 1569825 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...seriously, what is all this really pointing to? http://news.softpedia.com/newsImage/Texas-Sized-White-Arrow-Found-on-Titan-2.jpg/ ...lol Krugman's Zombie Bankers From Outer Space http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5FDzzupVvY

 

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:05 | 1569871 walküre
walküre's picture

The market priced in QE3 already. Wait until the announcement on or around 26/08 to go short. If there is an announcement it will have been a typical buy the rumor, sell the news type setup. If there is no announcement of further QE, the markets might as well be closed.

Other than PMs, and Gold in particular the QE2 upside was quickly evaporated. QE3 will evaporate even faster because...

FUNNY MONEY DOESN'T FIX ANYTHING!

MORE FUNNY MONEY DOESN'T FIX ANYTHING EITHER!

Who cares if they announce 1 trillion, 2 trillion or 4 trillion QE??? It's not AS IF that money was really there to begin with. It's all BOGUS!

The only difference is how much more you're going to pay for groceries going forward and how much higher your gold portfolio is going to increase.

There's more than enough FUNNY MONEY in circulation.

DEMAND on everything is declining. Except for gold maybe, not even sure it's real demand driven.

WE NEED A GOOD FLUSH in so many ways and then some.

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:27 | 1569967 Lone Mad Minute...
Lone Mad Minute Medic's picture

Russell 2000 signaling the death cross too

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 15:41 | 1570061 Crispy
Crispy's picture

RTM time...

Wed, 08/17/2011 - 19:06 | 1570870 chump666
chump666's picture

These markets are heading towards a nasty sell off that should break the previous lows.  You can sense it, death cross and all

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!