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Decoupalypse Now
Earlier today, the IMF tongue-in-cheekly attempted to make a serious case that Europe and the US could, for the first time since the formation of the Eurozone, decouple, with a worst-case scenario seeing European growth dropping 4% below baseline, or roughly -5% in late 2012 merely as an attempt to stoke Europeans to finally agree to fiscal easing, even as America grew contently on its merry way of monetary easing. While any hopes of a European "spriteness" are a guaranteed dead end, as confirmed by the Luxembourg finance minister who told Spiegel that "Merkel's Fiscal Pact a 'Waste of Time and Energy'", the bigger question remains what happens to the US, once i) Europe does not react aggressively to the threat of the biggest recession since 2008, and ii) its GDP does contract by 4% or more. We don't know. What we do know, courtesy of StreetTalk Advisors, is that whereever the US GDP goes, so does the Eurozone. And vice versa. Think the US won't experience a full blown recession if European growth implodes? Think again.
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Fear will keep the local system lords in line, fear of this Economic Battle-Station
Some one please remind me... what was the problem with the French, Germans, Spaniards, Italians, Swiss et al.. having their own individual currencies.
Was this conglomeration a power grab by the money changers?
Careful with your answers boys and girls - remember Christ tossed the money changers from the Temple and was hanging on a cross within threes days.
There are also those old rumors about JFK and Lincoln too. Just saying...
All Central Banks need is a quadrillion dollar firewall to fight Jesus, the ultimate bond vigilante.
Tim Tebow for Fed chair!
It is NOT a recession. It's uhm.... a VOLUNTARY ECONOMIC HAIRCUT!
Eurocide...
The difference between USD and EUR is two layer toilet paper vs. one layer toilet paper
The original idea was if there was a fiscal union then the chances of another European war would be greatly diminished. I shit you not. Kohl was a bigger believer in this. Now maybe we know why... Deutschland
Go further please...
quit pussyfooting around damnit and just say it.
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild (23 February 1744 – 19 September 1812)
Do you think others, perhaps more modern persons, in positions of financial power, also know this bit of financial wisdom?
Of course Switzerland uses CHF but as for the others, it was megalomania. To think they could achieve what Hitler and Napoleon failed to do by simply believing in it. Too bad for them we don't live in a fairy tale world, although it might sometimes seem so. Reality will always catch up.
The EU and the United States are merely mirror reflections of each other, if the mirror of one gets smashed, then the other is going to suffer.
http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/
All I know is that Wall Streeters will still get fully-blown whether recession, depression, or armaphuckingeddon.
Trippy.
OT but has anyone noted that the U.S. deployed 12,000 troops in Libya last weekend?
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/222317.html
Just more of Obama getting us out of wars I presume?
Why is the BDI & BSI not showing up on Bloomberg today ? And what are the two reflecting ?
Falling freight prices or falling demand or both ?
http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp
More up to date than Bloomberg - 807 and crashing
Soros knows :
'There will be riots on streets of America': George Soros predicts class war in U.S. as euro triggers collapse of global economyhttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2091190/George-Soros-predicts-U-...
indeed.
Twinkies only have a 25 day shelf life.
WHHHHAAAAT?
OMFG.. NOOOOOZ
You gotta plan properly, broseph.
That is total BS hollywood propaganda and government regulation lies. A twinkie has a real shelf life of like 10 years at least.
That's their Half-life........
Nice to have this european scapegoats, when trailerpark helots start looting & burning shopping malls in the U.S. ...
Robo Trader reminds us that SPG is going vertical today, so it musn't be much of a problem unless turning shopping malls into military bunkers is considered bullish...
What is funny, shopping malls are in fact BUNKERS. Think about it: lots of goods stored there, concrete walls, few windows, aircon/filters, stable underground parking zones, etc. Dig out dirt and roses at the entrances and outside parking lots, and you have excellent, fortified machine-gun positions. At least in Germany, many malls look like they could be turned into a regimental strongpoint when the shtf. Next time you go shopping, check it out ....
I have no doubt your analysis is correct...
The only trouble is, getting me to actually go to one for 10 minutes to try and verify... I'll take your word for it...
... got you. I try to avoid them too, as much as possible. The worst ones are those built during the 70's - they have absolutely no windows. Intention there is, you shouldn't look at the sun and clouds outside, but at all the marvellous products they offer - then buy some.
well he did get his boy elected here in the states who certainly isn't helping matters.
I hope he is first in line for the guiliteen.
...so the ventriliquist says... "FREEZE! or the dummy gets it!"...
There will always be football and food stamps. No riots.
as long as the football and food stamps hold out... No riots...
There... fixed it...
Sorass will morph from rat to cockroach when shtf.
"As the economic depression deepens in Europe, so will it deepen in America" - fixed it for you.
Thanks LP, I was about to do the same thing. Now I will dutifully tune in to CNBC so I can be told what to think about the possibility of a "double dip" recession
hey thats my leveraged Ass in slavery to capitalism picture......................................... meh...............
hey thats my leveraged Ass in slavery to capitalism picture......................................... meh...............
I have a hard time taking a piece seriously that doesn't acknowledge that we are already in a recession and we have been since 2000. We may have had inflationary growth but that's not real growth.
Could anybody tell me why the hell consumption could be counted as the GDP growth? I thought GDP means Production....
same with the so called service economy half of which is just digging holes and filling them in again to get a remotely close evaluation of the real economy you would have to take out government, military and finance(banks, insurers, etc.) wonder how much would be left, 20% of the current GDP ?
if you spent $1 billion to build a bomb to drop in the middle of the ocean, it would increase GDP by $1 billion. if you spent $10 billion building a bunch of schools that made kids stupider, it would increase GDP by $10 billion.
judging economic health based on nominal GDP is the greatest hoax of all.
But it makes me feel good. At least for a little while.
Stupidity is a economic multiplier. Stupid kids get hurt more often, results in more health care spending.
Hey!!!!
That my catapulting donkey!!!
judging economic health based on nominal GDP is the greatest hoax of all.
What's funny is people like Krugman go to bat for that exact idea...
- War
- Run out of Enemies? no problem... WAR ON TERROR?
- Run out of terrorists? WAR OF THE WORLDS! (space aliens)
---
I used to discard all of these theories without thought... I still basically do... But "occam's razor" would basically suggest that the simplest explanation of all would be that a few sociopathic control freaks (who control the money supply) is the easiest way in the world to perpetuate just about any HOAX you want...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDHk7Q_C9O8
Not that I believe in any of this shit... But if I were a sociopathic & paranoid control freak with a lot of money, I suppose I'd entertain such ideas...
You sir, are a scholar! The greatest expansion of credit in the history of the world and lasted about 8 to 10 years. We never recovered from the dot.com bubble burst. On the surface, yes things looked great for a bit. The real cost of this expansion is now coming due.
Actually, more like 20 years. check out the McKinsey article TD posted yesterday.
Wait, wait. Who's GDP calculation are you talking about? Fed's? BLS? Any number you get divide it by 5. If it's negative, multiply it by five. They did fudge the numbers to us in communism in Eastern Europe. It's not much different.
The cost of Empire. You must support the periphery.
Charlie sheen can star in this flick, being it is so "winning".
That is right. It is not our fault, we did not do anythng wrong. It is Europe's fault. Plain and simple. There, feel better?
When you create enough fiscal irresponsibility you can push the enevitable off for quite a while. 5 trillion new debt in three yrs still buys you a little gdp doesn't it.
I made a case (on another thread) earlier today that it would appear that a $10T maxed out LTRO (according to the IMF projections), would satisfy about enough to have a $490B bump in WORLD GDP for one fiscal year...
Yeah baby! Where do I sign?
I would suggest that means we are close to a point where the interest is going to canablize us.
I'd say we're wAAAY past that point already...
Only thing left to do is a monetary reset... & even that inevitability is going to be forestalled until the last physical penny is picked up from in front of the steamroller (using the last molecule of ink from the printing presses to get us thru to that point)...
Perpetual elevation of complexity eventually leads to a level of complexity that cant be handled anymore.
"complexity that cant be handled anymore" is already "priced in"...
so would this be a recession within a wider depression? or did the depression cause the recession?
The horror...the horror.
It's very disappointing to see the obvious gag not posted until 40 down. Tyler has thrown you the ball, all you have to do is hit it.
ZH's should be ashamed of themselves.
I like Decoupocalypse better.
What's wrong with a deep recession? Isn't it part of the market game?
Yes, it was anyway. There used to be losers. Now moral hazard is only for retail investors and tax payers.
Agreed. Nothing is wrong - gives people a chance to come in and buy up distressed assets and get the economy moving again, but in a healthy way.
7 Billion hungry people highly dependend on global trade, oil and energy cant be fed in a "deep recession". There are too many banks, companies and countries being too big to fail. Any deep recession would cause the whole system to go bust.
roughly 40%(i think) od s&p companies generate a significant portion of thier income oversees and we are gonna decouple? The desperation. This is like that movie the truman show. Everyone is in on it, who are they trying to fool
Solid article. I remember reading some anaylysts on Seeking Alpha back in 2007-2008 who said "China is decoupled form the USA...no way it will fall if the NYSE falls."
Well, we saw that theory go down the tubes taking millions of investors into bankruptcy along with it.
All market are very conected now as you point out. A sheep farmer in NZ losses his herd and prices in some UK village for lamb skyrocket....that's the way the world works now.
Your article is a good reminder.
There is absolutely no way in hell US can decouple form EU. No way. Dont listen to them.They are lying.
I love the smell of default in the morning.
lol
It isn't right, but it does make sense. We have some good, old-fashioned racketeering and extortion. They should be able to cut a deal with the Mafia in Italy.
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/
and all i want is a brand new tooth
The chart only shows how much more the US manipulates it's GDP numbers, in comparison to Eurozone countries.