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The Decoupling Blues: Full Economic Data Dump
And here we go:
- Initial Claims: 366K on Expectations of390K, down from 381K, lowest since May 31 of 2008; Seasonally unadjusted dropped somehow by a ridiculous 95,506. All those thousands of bankers being laid off must not be people - that explains it? And the stunner: those added to extended benefits was a whopping 332K, an unprecedent large number for a weekly change. (Source)
- Continuing Claims: 3603K vs. Exp. 3637K, up from 3583K. (Source)
- PPI November: 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.3%), inflation picking up (Source)
And the surge of those falling off continuing claims and going on EUC and Extended Claims: odd?
- US Empire Manufacturing: 9.53 vs. Exp. 3.00, up from Prev. 0.61; New Orders up from -2.07 to 5.10; And bad news for margins: Prices Paid up (from 18.29 to 24.42) - Prices Received down (from 6.10 to 3.49); Number of employees up, average employee workweek down (Source)
- US Current Account Balance Q3: Q/Q -110.3bln vs. Exp. -108.5bln (Prev. -118.0bln, Rev. -124.7bln) (Source)
In a nutshell: the data continues to be at multi-sigma outlier levels confirming that everything is being done to pretend America is decoupling from the rest of the world. It isn't, and when the artificial lag catch up the down leg will be doubly as vicious.
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NSA 433,000 (much improved over last week). The shocker though is totals on unemployment….+874,670 to 7.4 million (from 6.5 mil). Huge Govt layoffs.
One other factor, not pointed out, is that many of the jobs being offered are 6 month contract jobs and if you work less than 2 full quarters you are not eligible for UE. As an example, I have a programmer friend that was 'downsized' from a job she had for many years. She collected UE up until she got a job as a contract programmer. The term of employment was 6 months or less. She was released from that job and is now ineligible for UE and would not show up in the initial claims number. Many people in this same boat. Quite clever actually; I guess they call it 'managing perceptions' but, no matter perceptions, she is still unemployed and can not collect UE.
You hit the nail on the head. This is a colluded effort to bring down the jobless numbers. I had something similar happen to me back in 09, laid off and took a contract position to get off UE. That ended and I was ineligible for UE, and had to go a short time without income. I just scanned the jobs site, and in my area many are listed as contract positions.
The latest official unemployment rate is 8.6%. Everyone knows it is worse but very few have the skill set to find out the truth. Different economist have different methods. I like using “real world” analysis comparing today’s economy where the federal government consumes 25.3% of the GDP to the 1999-2000 economy where the federal government consumed 18.2% of the GDP.
I do this because that is when the labor force participation rate peaked at 67.9% in July 1999. The employment-population ratio also peaked at 64.9% that month. Compared that to today’s dismal 27 year lows of 63.9% and 57.6% respectively.
Simply put keeping the 1999 ratios we have 140,580,000 workers today compared to the 148,681,000 we should have with limited federal government and sound economic policies. The civilian labor force is 153,683,000 but under the 1999 criteria it would be 157,278,000. Doing the math the “1999? unemployment rate would be 10.6%, not 8.6%.
r101958
How does that work legally? The rules used to be forty weeks of employment over the last two years, twenty in a year, made you elligible for UE. Some factories would hire for a twenty week job, lay for for a year and rehire those collecting UE for the next job. Seasonal labor worked the same way.
Each state has their own idiosyncrasies and I don't know them all. I do know that this particular individual had to move out of state to take the job so perhaps that has something to do with it. Also, looking back, I think she was unemployed for about 5 or 6 months before she got the contract job.
Is that + 875k a yearly increase in long term unemployment numbers?
Weekly
multi-sigmaOutliarSong&DaNCe
Bullshit brigade out in full force to pump Santa, not to mention the bonus pool.
Fukk off.
Exactly. Couldn't have said it any better myself.
Meanwhile the TED spread keeps climbing. If the banks aren't buying the hype, why should we?
It's BS, even if it isn't BS. The numbers could be correct but the models are all wrong. As always, I'll wait for John William's numbers: http://www.shadowstats.com/
'In a nutshell: the data continues to be at multi-sigma outlier levels confirming that everything is being done to pretend America is decoupling from the rest of the world. It isn't, and when the artificial lag catch up the down leg will be doubly as vicious.'
Was it ever in doubt?
This is just to get us through Christmas without a crash. Gotta prop it through the holiday, then let it fall in mid-Janurary.
We are saved! All hail the Bernank!
firstdivision
The plan is for economic hardship to rise during the next election. Then the R will ride in as the great white hope who has a plan to solve the crisis.
Within two years after inauguration 2013, riots in major cities force martial law. Then the crackdowns begin.
All the political manuevering has been laying the groundwork.
Of course the planned collapse allows for a step to the next level of one world government. Lower the standard of living in the US while raising it in the rest of the world. Make everything fall apart so no one notices when you rebuild, and people will actually be thankful for the stability.
Laugh at that claims number. To think that we can get a 300+ plus number 3 years after the depression started is truely amazing. And who fires before Christmas? Wait until Jan and Feb roll around and see what happens.
Trans,
I've been layed off 2 times in my life...both times the second week of December.>>>> Corporations don't care about Christmas....
These numbers are fudged!
can't wait 'til oBLAHma's head, decouples from said body!
Maybe there is something to this seasonal adjustments being even more BS than they used to be theory.
Either that, or the BLS didn't tell us about their recent new hire, Larry Yun.
Well, we know the trade before the open: a +300- +500 dow.
I hope it is 1000 points up so we can accumulate some shorts.
Come on at least make the fudging believable. This is just so whacked out of line it isn't even recognizable. Can we get government officials arrested for domestic violence? Lady Liberty no longer has a face. It is just a mangled pile of pulp. There are no new orders. The gov probably gave one factory a giant order to fake the increase.
statistics like these are on the same scale as "1 in 5 women were sexually harrased". Just puting the quality and quantity on par with bottom of 3rd world.
I think we're gonna need a bigger manure spreader.
http://seekingalpha.com/currents/all Everything is a lie and a scam. Same as it ever was.
Eurohypo becomes EuroRehypothicatedHypo.
Cool.
Let's make some more shit up to pawn off as useful.
Like if Europe gets downgraded en masse, does it all become EuroTrash? (Rhetorical question to initiate Zen meditation.)
They have to do something like that. If the bank is publically bailed out by the government, then executive bonuses will be limited to 500,000 Euros. Meanwhile, they are laying off anybody and everybody they can, especially contractors. even those doing mission essential support. Better the worker bees and the banking business sacrificed than the corporate elite have to face reality.
Selling into strength is truly man's best friend!
The Empire Index is pretty interesting. So average workweek is down, while number of employees are up. That is a lot of part-time workers then. So basically after the holiday, expect them to be laid-off again.
Fantastic. Seriously. I mean, anyone who actually believes silliness this is an ignoramus but hey, you didn't think TPTB were going to let The Grinch (alias for Reality) get anywhere near The American Couch-Potatoe/CONsumer this close to Festmas, did you?
I'm just hoping they can keep pumping-out this BS through February, when my annual performance (and salary) review is done and my bonus for this year is payed-out. Come-on, Benny - don't let me down!!
Could someone please explain to me why as the market realizes what this site has said about Commerzbank needing a bailout the stocks for these banks are ripping higher today? Tyler? Anyone. Confusing.
Because they're all bailoutable via coordinated Centrally Banked and Apporved Rehypothication.
There is No Fucking Rational Reason For Any of this Shit.
NAR!...The summary of all economic data in the US!
Anyone look at cnbc.com this morning? Massive propaganda. Headlines paint an incredibly rosy picture. Here are the first bulleted headlines:
Wow!
Everything is a lie.
Ahhh, it so reminds me of last 17 years of Belarus(under Lukashenko).
It's all they do here, painting the rosy picture, while people can barely afford their food.
People lining up for limited ammounts of cheap government-regulated milk.
http://charter97.eu/photos/20111215-1_ochered.jpg
What's being "sold" to the people. Does anyone "buy it"? People here buy the BS because we assume the "free press" does its job. What are the Belarusians thinking? What are their options, realistically? Optimism, pessimism, resignation?
I listened to about 5 minutes of Imus in the morning on my drive into the office. I haven't done so in a year or so. They have this southern NASCAR woman who delivers the "business news". I don't think she's as dumb in real life as her radio persona, but perhaps she is. She was equally upbeat. It's always a nice reminder that the word "programming", when it comes to our media, really is appropriate. I have bitched for decades about how "captured" our government is. Regulatory bodies are run by the corporate entities that they are to regulate, politicians are funded by the same criminals... but it's really us who are captured. 300 million sleepwalkers.
MSM should be beaming - thank goodness I don't watch
Actually, Cramer stayed home today. Appears he drank some cheap scotch last night. He was sad last night.
Too bad he didn't impale himself on the bottle
Well, here's the take from The Bankster Propaganda Machine: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-14/bad-news-for-economic-doomsayers-the-ticker.html
Now get out there and shop, serfs. We've got bonus-pools to fund!
So ummm...when is the telepromters rah-rah speech?
How much of that is faked?
105%
In order to be counted in official unemployment statistics, don't you have to go down to the state unemployment office and stand in line with 99 percenters? In that case, no.
Can't they just use the website?
Hell if I know, I've never been on UE. I got me a job over at Penetrode.
As I remember it, commodities/gold/silver were the first to get wacked in 2008 while stocks were in la la land. Stocks due and proper came shortly after.
yep, long SDS
More bullshit and lies.
Come on - you know Obama can't allow a crash next year. It would destroy his chances for reelection
Obama is a fall guy just like Bush, he has no control over it.
His other role... run as the anti-war candidate... give the anti-war crowd a victory... give the president a nobel peace prize... continue on with the MIC agenda. The core of the anti-war crowd understands this... the core makes up about 10%.
Who the fuck pays attention to those numbers, just noise every week. Reality is that the whole western world is up to the gils in debt, unrepayable debt! The only jobs available are in resale of chinese goods imported on credit or for military complex. If you take those numbers seriously you'll see that in 3 or 4 years we have, lets say, average initial unemployment claims at 400k that means 3(years)x52(weeks)x400k= 62 mln out of 130 mln workforce. This is just rough calc. Just a joke!
2.1 million more people participating in SNAP than there were to start the year. That's about all you need to know.
How many Wall St. bankers actually apply for unemployment? Very few, I'd guess.