Decoupling Uber Alles: Jobless Claims Drop, Starts And Permits Beat
The decoupling desperation hits just keep on coming. After revising last week's 390k number as usual higher to 393K, today's soon to be revised higher jobless claims number hit 388k - the lowest since April, on expectation of 395k. Naturally the robots took one look at the number and completely ignored the fact that Europe's slow motion implosion continues because a few thousand people fired less apparently is good news. Naturally, that corporations, which have already cut all the fat and now have fewer and fewer people left to fire is of secondary importance. After all the decoupling thesis must survive at all costs because if not for America, which together with everyone else, has exported $338 billion more than they have imported - a mathematical idiocy which was noted yesterday - then the world is apparently doomed. And confirming just how "strong" the US economy is, or at least reports thereof, was both the continuing claims number which came in at 3,608K on expectations of 3,635K (previous revised of course higher from 3,615K to 3,665K), while housing starts and permits both beating expectations and coming at 628K and 653K, on expectations of 610K and 603K; even as both previous prints were revised lower. That multi-family units once again came at an abnormally high 183K is also irrelevant - 1 unit came virtually unchanged at 430k. But none of this matters: if the blistering economic data of this week, Ministry of Truthed as it may be, is not sufficient to convince the market that the US can decouple from the European catastrophe, nothing can. Naturally, if Europe is not fixed within one month, comparable "beats" in December will be simply ridiculous and completely non credible, and the BLS will be forced to actually report the truth on what the global slow down looks like.
Yet going back to the claims number, we take one quick look at the unadjusted claim data for the week ended November 5, for states reporting changes of more than 1,000, and something sticks out at us.