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Decoupling Uber Alles: Jobless Claims Drop, Starts And Permits Beat

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The decoupling desperation hits just keep on coming. After revising last week's 390k number as usual higher to 393K, today's soon to be revised higher jobless claims number hit 388k - the lowest since April, on expectation of 395k. Naturally the robots took one look at the number and completely ignored the fact that Europe's slow motion implosion continues because a few thousand people fired less apparently is good news. Naturally, that corporations, which have already cut all the fat and now have fewer and fewer people left to fire is of secondary importance. After all the decoupling thesis must survive at all costs because if not for America, which together with everyone else, has exported $338 billion more than they have imported - a mathematical idiocy which was noted yesterday - then the world is apparently doomed. And confirming just how "strong" the US economy is, or at least reports thereof, was both the continuing claims number which came in at 3,608K on expectations of 3,635K (previous revised of course higher from 3,615K to 3,665K), while housing starts and permits both beating expectations and coming at 628K and 653K, on expectations of 610K and 603K; even as both previous prints were revised lower. That multi-family units once again came at an abnormally high 183K is also irrelevant - 1 unit came virtually unchanged at 430k. But none of this matters: if the blistering economic data of this week, Ministry of Truthed as it may be, is not sufficient to convince the market that the US can decouple from the European catastrophe, nothing can. Naturally, if Europe is not fixed within one month, comparable "beats" in December will be simply ridiculous and completely non credible, and the BLS will be forced to actually report the truth on what the global slow down looks like.

Yet going back to the claims number, we take one quick look at the unadjusted claim data for the week ended November 5, for states reporting changes of more than 1,000, and something sticks out at us.

 


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Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:54 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

CA   +1,449   No comment.

Yeah, me too. No comment.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:16 | Link to Comment jdelano
jdelano's picture

NY--no mention of layoffs in the Financial Sector?  LOL.  There is no reality whatsoever in these B(l)S numbers any more.  They're not even trying to hide it--what's interesting about that is who do they think they're fooling?  The cramerites and the lowest common element of CNBC readers might gobble this shit up, but any retail investors with a decent bankroll and any institutional investors--in other words, the people with the power to move the market--all know that the "vastly improved data" is all complete horseshit.  How does every data point improve while europe is imploding, china is landing, and every emerging market economy is deteriorating?  Why are they even bothering?  Don't they know they're going to lose yet?  This is like watching that sad kid who runs to the end zone and spikes the ball as everyone else heads to the locker room....  

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 13:19 | Link to Comment Hard1
Hard1's picture

No decoupling, even Mars is dependant on China's exports now!

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:55 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

I say the FED opens an unlimited credit line to Mars's central bank so they can spur lending to martians and buy more of our stuff!

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:12 | Link to Comment JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

November 17, 2011

Reuters: Venuatu, Mars

Enlightened bankers, er, being on earth today sent a letter to the central bank of Mars asking them to participate in a more meaningful way.  Having exported $338 Billion worth of goods to Mars in the last year earth now believes it is time for Mars to step up and give MORE>

When asked what "MORE" looks like Ben Bernanke, head of the Federal Reserve had this to say.  "Fuck I dont know."

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:55 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

the best part of the ponzi....this "better than expected" data out of the us ramps...the EUR!!!!!!  thats right, the US is "recovering" and people are selling USD and buying EUR.  Fucking hilarious.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:06 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

You think there are actually people trading?

 

They've been shit canning any human in the financial industry for the last three years.  The ones that got canned at Lehman were lucky to get it first.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:57 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Seasonal adjustments at work here.

How many retailers and UPS are hiring thousands of workers for 2 months, so they can sell and move seasonal merchandise?

But yes, the theories i am going with today are decoupling and those excess exports are at the island of misfit toys.

Booyah.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:04 | Link to Comment spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Good time to check container flow out of China and see how Xmas is going to be. Can't sell what you don't have.

Anyone know what the next hot product out of Japan will be? (I know, too soon by about 50 years)

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:26 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND

3Y & 5Y give a good indication of where we are at...

'Anyone know what the next hot product out of Japan will be? (I know, too soon by about 50 years)'

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiation_effects_from_Fukushima_Daiichi_nu...

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:59 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

Whew.. that's a relief.

For a while I was worried about things, there.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:59 | Link to Comment spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Same guy checks and finalizes world export numbers?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:09 | Link to Comment sdmjake
sdmjake's picture

There's an App for that.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:59 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

LOL!  Jobless claims are revised up every week, and housing starts are revised down every month.

Fudging the numbers is the NKI!

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 09:59 | Link to Comment Irish66
Irish66's picture

27,772 plus

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:02 | Link to Comment DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

US consumer savings rate was @ a 4 year low.  Conspicuous consumption has returned. But balance sheet is still precarious.  More so.  Not much room for error, if there's double dip.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:07 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Everyone I know who is in sales says their business is very slow, except the liquor store guy.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:23 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

A good bottle of single malt scotch cures all kinds of ailments...

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 11:27 | Link to Comment PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Same here. Every store owner and hotelier I talked to said,"it's dismal."

I  do not know where they come up with these retail sales figures un;ess they are counting in sales of PMs to Central Banks who are gobbling up every ounce of the shiny stuff they can buy (or steal).

Funny, thing is they don't seem to know yet, "you can't eat gold."

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Melin
Melin's picture

Maybe the savings rate dip isn't due to "conspicuous consumption" but to savers now having to eat thru their savings as we're nearly 4 years since Bush "...abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system."

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:57 | Link to Comment Robert Neville
Robert Neville's picture

I think we abandoned free markets in 1913 but go ahead and blame Bush if it makes you feel better.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:01 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

NY had large layoffs in the 'recreation industry'? Do they mean mimes and such, or would that be CNBC staff or something?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:59 | Link to Comment Robert Neville
Robert Neville's picture

Porn and hookers.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:05 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Naturally, that corporations, which have already cut all the fat and now have fewer and fewer people left to fire is of secondary importance.

Corporations are coming to a crossroads. 

They can't hire more people because of "cost" affecting their "profits" (i.e., shareholders and board's paychecks), yet if they fire more people, it looks bad for their image and maybe even stock.  And existing employees, whose productivity is up because they are scared shitless of losing their job, despite not getting a raise (and companies gaining profits), aren't going to take this much longer.  People WILL walk off if they call a bank holiday and oil goes up to a certain point.

Soon, as the money crunch gets tighter, corporations will almost have to keep cutting fat until the only ones left are the managers and CEOs, who will be left to do grunt work (lol).

 

 

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:05 | Link to Comment LMAO
LMAO's picture

And of course, initial Jobless claims will fall all the way to ZERO by the time everybody has become unemployed.

Surely that would be cause for celebration!

Keynesianism in a nutshell.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 11:31 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

And the following month the BLS would proudly proclaim that the economy is in great shape because THERE WERE NO JOB CUTS LAST MONTH.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:07 | Link to Comment No Mas
No Mas's picture

Guys I know its tough.  I know the Tyler Durdens have an excuse for everything that isn't doom and gloom.  Data good, manipulated.  Data bad, not manipulated!!  Can't trust the original but the revisions are correct - even if both numbers are from the same folks.

But the world still turns and the end really is no where near, no matter the ZH prophecy that just keeps failing.

Again, get out of your parent's basement or your backyard bunker.  Meet some real live people.  Go out and try to get into a good eatery without a wait.  Wait in line at the gas pump and fight the traffic.  You will come to realize that the Fed has been fought and once again, the Fed has won. 

Now, enjoy this wonderful day.  And remember that tomorrow will be better!

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:11 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well what are you doing here then, if everything is so great....writing long paragraphs about how the site youre on is 'wrong' and everything is great? Shouldnt you be out there consuming and enjoying your vast market profits on a yacht in the Carribean? Get in there and BUY more man! The markets arent waiting, sitting here at 1995 levels, inflation adjusted more like 1980's but HEY man its all good hurry and buy all you can!

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:20 | Link to Comment Esso
Esso's picture

Inflation adjusted, probably more like 1932.

Brother, can you spare a dime?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 11:33 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

At least in 1932 dimes contained real silver.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 14:02 | Link to Comment kennard
kennard's picture

Inflation adjusted, the S&P is around 2001-2002 levels:

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/inflation-adjusted-chart-of-sp-500-2328....

... not that it is supported by fundamentals

 

 

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:18 | Link to Comment gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

I logged in just to vote your comment down.  Did you see the headlines at DrudgeReport this morning?  Even as more Americans are waking up to the severity of the situation, you peddle hopium, but there are very few buying at this web site.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 11:36 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Maybe he works for the Obama Reelection Campaign and is trying to convince everyone that the (false) messiah will make everything better. It's not always easy to recognize an ORC.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:18 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

" You will come to realize that the Fed has been fought and once again, the Fed has won. "

What will be the ultimate cost of a Pyrrhic victory "won" by the Fed.  Will the middle class in the US cease to exist?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:21 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Interesting post No Mas but I think you may have it a little wrong. We are not doom and gloom here. We are given the information and we act on it ourselves. If you just take all the data and sort out the facts and what you see in your home town you may understand how the system is deteriorating. We are all out in the world, check out the people at WalMart, HD, notice the lack of smiles, notice how all know this is not getting better.

Look at our political system. Nothing more has to be said there. 

And you are right, it is not going to fall apart today or tomorrow, it is a cancer that slowly eats away and destroys the system. We go about our daily lives as best we can and enjoy as best we can. But not to protect your assets and family in case You are Wrong. 

Not willing to take that chance.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:23 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Everywhere I look I witness decline and/or denial of it. That is the typical "middle" class neighborhood. Where do you live?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:23 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh and No Mas dont forget all the months of markets popping on 'bad news is good news' because that means the FED will fly over Wall St and drop pallets of free money are gone and its good news is bad news now. Cant have it both ways you know.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:09 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Guess yesterday was a false alarm, QE3 is now off.  Someone notify the oil traders in Houston.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:13 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep just another QE3 false alarm I guess. LOL those whacky FED guys are somethin else huh? COming out and popping the QE3 rumor when markets are sliding just for a momentary pop, hell its all good FED just listen to what No Mas says, everything is just peachy keen and all.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:21 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

sheepie, we have to put an end to this qe3 talk, for that is the real HOPIUM

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:24 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Their turn toward 'good news' leaves QE3 talk high and dry for sure.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:11 | Link to Comment oleander garch
oleander garch's picture

In order to qualify for unemployment benefits, one must work in 'covered employment' (i.e., full time job) for a substantial amount of time - usually a year.

Whatever the issue with seasonal adjustment, one can anticipate (given the massive shift to part-time and seasonal hiring ploys to better take advantage of the weak labor market) as well as the stellar birth-death numbers signaling the rise of individual entrepeneurship (single person small businesses do not figure in the UC system without hiring anyone) that fewer and fewer people will have 'covered employment' for the requisite period of time.

Therefore, as the temporary economic blip enters its fifth year, the initial claims should continue to drop.    

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:11 | Link to Comment BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

One or more of the GOP presidential candidates should pledge if elected they will 'get real' with the jobs and economic data.  Nothing is going to change until we face the reality and stop this charade.  Voters would also appreciate someone saying it.  Just my  2¢.

 

 

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:17 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL, the 'republicans' are now just fodder for late night comedians, theyve so overplayed the early hype theyre already tiresome and its over a year till election time.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:28 | Link to Comment BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

What else is new, late night comedians are hollywood liberals.   

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:26 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

With the exception of Ron Paul, the leading GOP candidates all seem to want conflict with Iran.  Maybe that is their plan to kick-start the economy and increase hiring...

100% FUBAR.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:11 | Link to Comment Bithead1
Bithead1's picture

Did the BLS ever correct their mess up last year with the numbers?  I believe they may still need to add the 800k unemployed they "forgot".

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:13 | Link to Comment Scalaris
Scalaris's picture

Bloomberg's reporter asking a trader on nyse's floor if the "impressive" stronger US economic data can offset Europe's worrying economic climate.

 

How early it's too early to start drinking? 

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:14 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its never too early to price in some more unicorn farts!

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:23 | Link to Comment IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

It's never too early, only too late.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:16 | Link to Comment Coldfire
Coldfire's picture

Once you start lying to yourself, after a while you can't even recognise what the truth even looked like.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:55 | Link to Comment jdelano
jdelano's picture

that's exactly what this looks like--remember the pathalogical lier in high school?  that kid who would just never admit it.  Bust him on the girlfriend nobody's ever met and he'd dress up a dummy, put her in the front seat of his car, park in front of the science lab and pretend to make out.... after a while it's more labor intensive to try and keep up the lie than it would be to get your shit together, see a dermatologist about the acne, hit the gym, and actually go out and get a damn girlfriend.  (Point is--at this point it would probably be easier to admit that the finacial system has collapsed and call upon everyone to pull together and figure out a way to fix it.)

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:18 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Can someone destroy JPMorgan already? I'm sick of their manipulation of oil prices.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:20 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Not to mention PM's...Im all for one morning hearing JP Mordor is down and out.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:24 | Link to Comment Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

All the hobos are off the streets and in Santa Claus training.

Ho ho ho!

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:25 | Link to Comment Barleycorn
Barleycorn's picture

Jobless claims are "falling" (growing less fast if we want to use honest language) because as the duration of unemployment lengthens, fewer people are eligible to claim unemployment.  But in the Panglossian fantasy world of Wall Street economists it is considered bad form to provide analysis that is anything less than exuberant.

Move along - Nothing to see here. 

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:29 | Link to Comment marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

yeah...everything is all green shoots everywhere...

oh wait, didn't we just pass 15 trillion in public debt?

and that U6 number keeps going up, not down. and SNAP.

this happened last year at this time to didn't it, claims, unemployment edged down then spring hit and the green shoots died.

santa clause stimulus, happens every year, you would think wall street would have caught on to that by now.

more likely they just don't care, any port in a storm yeah? any excuse to make that dead cat bounce.

oh well, let the fiat orgy of idiocy begin.

 

 

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:38 | Link to Comment dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

The holiday season makes the monkey brain overly optimistic. Happens every year. Unfortunately, we have another 2 months of this nauseating crap.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 11:42 | Link to Comment GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

For me, a green shoot is using ammunition that has no lead content.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:44 | Link to Comment Corn1945
Corn1945's picture

Wasn't last week a four-day week?

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 10:57 | Link to Comment nlude80
nlude80's picture

Yes, I was thinking the same thing.  4-day week, with many financial and government offices closed for Veteran's day.  Seems to me, that should be mentioned in the reporting.  We should see a spike up next week.

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 11:10 | Link to Comment DB Cooper
DB Cooper's picture

$338 billion more exports than imports?  Easy - it's all on pirate ships - bullish!

 

Thu, 11/17/2011 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Bold Eagle
Bold Eagle's picture

Another doze of BS from the BLS. From the report: "The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending November 5 were in Michigan (+3,106), Illinois (+2,516), Texas (+2,335), Washington (+2,278), and Pennsylvania (+2,261) while the largest decreases were in Florida (-1,896), Oregon (-804), Puerto Rico (-487), District of Columbia (-40), and Arizona (-36)." 15 states had increase in claims of more than 1000, only one state has a decrease over 1,000 and the total number of claims went down? Yeah, this makes lot of sense.
They claim that "The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 360,139 in the week ending November 12, a decrease of 42,355 from the previous week". Yet, the number of claims went up by 26,018 in 15 states, went down by -3,263 in 5 states and in the remaining 30 states it did not go down by more than 35. So instead of decreasing by 42k, the number of claims should be up by about 22k.

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