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Deep Fried Black Swan Goes Global As Drought Spreads From US To Asia, And Now To Southern Europe

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The US drought, which as previously noted, is the worst in decades, has already caused corn prices to hit a record, and soy to soar. And as we first reported last week, and subsequently Bloomberg also caught, Asia could well be next to suffer soaring food prices next as "the monsoon season, which is critical for that country’s agricultural production, is 22% below normal conditions for the year." In fact, if there is one thing preventing the PBOC from engaging in full blown easing, it is precisely the threat that just as it floods the market with excess CNY, that the supply of food will collapse causing widespread riots and chaos a la Arab Spring 2011. And now, just to make sure that the threat of full out global food crisis is complete, and the deep fried black swan has truly gone global, we find that a heat wave in Southern Europe is causing the corn crops to wither in a region that is responsible for 16% of global exports.

 

Bloomberg has more.

 


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Wed, 07/25/2012 - 15:48 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

This will raise prices so WS will see it as bullish.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:12 | Link to Comment ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

The corn crop was worth $140B last year. If production falls by 50% then Jamie and Lloyd will need to double the price to avoid a drop in US corn GDP.

Doing "God's Work" isn't always easy... but it sure is profitable.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:24 | Link to Comment Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

The physical market doesn't look at it that way. End users would rather seek substitutes (feed wheat, S. American corn etc.) rather than pay this premium. The drop in demand that we're already seeing in the river market and domestic grind market is telling us that demand is being rationed. Unless clueless investors continue buying into a commodity they know nothing about, which they would never do because people are wholly rational beings who would weigh the risks against an easy buck.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:49 | Link to Comment ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Check out the maps of global grain production and consumption below. The bulk of production is in the Northern hemisphere where the majority of agricultural land is and the prevailing atmospheric conditions have affected the crops the most. I sincerely doubt South America and Australia are going to make up for this shortfall.

http://www.google.ca/imgres?q=global+grain+production+map&um=1&hl=en&biw...

http://www.google.ca/imgres?q=global+grain+production&um=1&hl=en&sa=N&bi...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:31 | Link to Comment AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Too many black swans.

 

people are starting to believe white swans don't exist anymore.

 

fuck, when is the last time you've even seen a swan in real life?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:48 | Link to Comment jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

A few days ago actually, beautiful creatures... but they can be mean n nasty.

 

Never seen a black swan though... there's no way in hell they exist.  To think otherwise... HERETIC!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:02 | Link to Comment Dugald
Dugald's picture

Plenty of black swans in Western Australia...also the state emblem

Which really means Australia can't have a black swan event....will have to be Pink Swan Event?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:29 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

Stratford, Ontario is famous for their black swans:

http://www.city.stratford.on.ca/site_ourcitylife/know_your_city_swans.asp

 

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 06:11 | Link to Comment Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Took a picture of some yesterday in Rotorua NZ.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 20:28 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Common enough in Canada.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:47 | Link to Comment ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

double

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:54 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

I hope all the farmers are hedged with agricultural derivatives.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:06 | Link to Comment ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Actually many are 'hedged' having already sold their expected corn/wheat/soy crops months ago to lock in what now are very low prices. We used to hedge about 50% of our production if the prices looked good in the spring.

Hedged farmers will be wiped out this year.

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:21 | Link to Comment The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Someone got their ass handed to them today.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:45 | Link to Comment BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Well I can tell you where all the rain went.......We had a RECORD for June this year as in the most rain we have ever had for ANY month in the history of records. That would be Southern British Columbia.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:59 | Link to Comment Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Filled with RADs from Japan?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:03 | Link to Comment 1100-TACTICAL-12
1100-TACTICAL-12's picture

Somethin happen in Japan?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 20:33 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Naw.  Same old stuff going on for the last year and a half.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 20:43 | Link to Comment Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

According to the info at Enenews.com, the drought is caused by the radiation creating an inner-atmosphere radiation belt, stretching across the Northern Hemisphere. The question, I suppose, is how much radiation has been, and is continuing to be, emitted from there?

From Enenews.com:

“A recent study was prepared for Greenpeace Germany by international nuclear safety expert Dr. Helmut Hirsch. Dr. Hirsch’s assessment, based on data published by the French government’s radiation protection agency (IRSN) and the Austrian government’s Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) found that the total amount of unstable radionuclides Iodine-131 and Caesium-137 released between March 11 and March 23 has been so high that the Fukushima crisis already equates to three INES 7 incidents.

Release of radiation from the stricken reactors has reached 10,000 teraBequerels (10,000 trillion Bequerels) per hour, measured for radioactive Iodine-131.”

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=24292

“The uranium bomb which the United States dropped on Hiroshima at the end of World War II released 89 tera becquerels. It killed 140,000 people – many instantly, others within weeks of the blast as they succumbed to severe radiation burns.”

http://voices.yahoo.com/fukushimas-nuclear-disaster-radiation-released-was-9025493.html

So, a rough estimate is that Fukushima is spewing the equivalent of 112 Hiroshima-type nuclear bombs worth of radiation every hour, of every day.

That’s 981,120 atomic bombs a year going off worth of radiation into our biosphere."

Now, even if this study is off by 75% on the high side, that still leaves 245,280 nuclear bombs worth of radiation being emitted into the atmosphere yearly. Following the jetstream maps which is spreading this radiation, and it dovetails nicely with the world's primary growing regions that are experiencing severe drought.

And since they are running out of people to do any kind of work at Fukushima due to the high exposure levels, there's no stopping these emissions. In fact, the emissions are increasing at a steady rate, while the support structures are continually weakend and collapsing due to the continuous earthquakes and liberal application of salt-water cooling (which all flows back into the Pacific Ocean).

In a few years there will be Hell on earth. A Hell unlike anything anyone could ever possibly imagine. Enjoy what's left.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 09:24 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"Hedged farmers will be wiped out this year."

Doesn't sound like much of a hedge.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:50 | Link to Comment jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Are the derivatives on paper?  Probably edible then.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:25 | Link to Comment AvoidingTaxation
AvoidingTaxation's picture

Hedged by MF Global!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:29 | Link to Comment lotusblue
lotusblue's picture

Let them eat cake!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:27 | Link to Comment Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

Pluto is even heating up, as are all the planets in the Solar system. This is a multi faceted issue. Its mainly due to the sun core heating up as we pass through a hydrogen ion/energy rich "belt". The sun is heating up, and earth is being affected through magnetic storms as well as magnetic induction. This is not going to end well. Some big shit here, and coming. I wonder when governments will share this tid bit, and let the masses know, only a few "life boats" exist... interesting times...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:36 | Link to Comment Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

issszzaat right? ... I think it's more like the aliens trying to blow up the Sun to kill us all because they hate our freedom.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:45 | Link to Comment Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

Illegal aliens? :)   Just look at Greenland, within only a few days 40% thaw, with a total of 97% thaw/melt, and NOAA, et al have no clue as to why. Desalination of the oceans would be a massive death knell, and beginning of an ice age...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:25 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

Thanks for the tip!

The rapid melting over just four days was captured by three satellites. It has stunned and alarmed scientists, and deepened fears about the pace and future consequences of climate change.

In a statement posted on Nasa's website on Tuesday, scientists admitted the satellite data was so striking they thought at first there had to be a mistake.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/24/greenland-ice-sheet-th...

This is hot stuff!

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:32 | Link to Comment TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

In any case, this will re-ignite the "arab spring" again.    

Prices of imported grain and fuel in those places sparked the initial uprising.   Now Egypt is down to nothing in foreign currency reserves, has a very bad and persistent balance of trade deficit, and has no credit line.   They import 50% of the calories egyptians live on, and as such an increase in grain prices will hurt even worse than their projected situation, whcih was already headed to apocalyptic famine territory before the grain price surge.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:26 | Link to Comment John Bigboote
John Bigboote's picture

Solar kill shot.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:56 | Link to Comment Unbezahlbar
Unbezahlbar's picture

Is this why the Aliens (plutonians, Uranusites, etc) are buying up all the empty houses?...because their planet is drying/heating up?

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:46 | Link to Comment Landrew
Landrew's picture

Be careful someone might believe you.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 15:50 | Link to Comment FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Just when TPTB think they can control everything, Mother Nature reminds them of who really is in charge. Unfortunately it will be the poor that suffer rather than the banking class.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 15:58 | Link to Comment TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

You didnT notice the chem trails?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:07 | Link to Comment Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

So this has nothing to do with cloud seeding...right??  And HAARP is just a school project?  

 

 

Dajjal is trying to kill you.  

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:09 | Link to Comment Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

This drought coupled with a major financial crisis in the fall and likely a major war around the same time is going to cause everyone from the middle class down serious hardships, hunger and poverty this coming winter.

Some very good reasons to finalize your preps before the fall.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:23 | Link to Comment mc_LDN
mc_LDN's picture

The spirit of this Earth will sweep through continents, starve hundreds upon hundreds of millions, destroy finance and money, nations states and standing armies.

The Purifiers have arrived people. Get ready because we've had our shot and our Western societies have failed miserably at the little experiment we were afforded. Time to get our of the way and make way for the new that is coming very soon. And no it wont be illuminati, elites or any other political entity. These are all nothing and will be swept aside like little children.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:30 | Link to Comment TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

well ... the Spirit of this Earth (Gaia?) had better hurry, otherwise TPTB will beat her to it.

Correction: Billions will starve.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 15:49 | Link to Comment Karl von Bahnhof
Karl von Bahnhof's picture

Whoof, I read porn price was growing makes me panic

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 15:55 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

If you are still paying for porn, then maybe you deserve to spend more.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:20 | Link to Comment Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

You can't eat porn... although I'd rather not think about it.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:03 | Link to Comment Karl von Bahnhof
Karl von Bahnhof's picture

Yes you can!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 15:50 | Link to Comment pingpongthesecond
pingpongthesecond's picture

Too bad GS wanted to sell corn and buy wheat...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:18 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

 

http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=beef&months=60

 

Plenty of rain in South Texas this year, thank God! 

I can bulldog him to the ground, but then I need someone big to sit on our bullcalf while I castrate him.  Any takers? 

How do average folks making an average wage ($26,000) afford an average grocery bill?

Get a family cow, some chickens, and a garden.  It is easier than you imagine.

http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/encyclopedia-of-country-living-carla-emery/1100219544

http://familycow.proboards.com/index.cgi

http://hambydairysupply.com/xcart/home.php?cat=250

http://www.cheesemaking.com/

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:18 | Link to Comment Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

BTFD on that family cow, herds are being liquidated due to high feed costs. Beef will dip for a bit while frozen storage inventory rises, but expect that heffer to rally hard because you can't grow a herd back in a year. We're probably looking at at least 2-3 years of high beef prices.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:24 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Breed That Fertile Devon

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:41 | Link to Comment Taint Boil
Taint Boil's picture

 

 

 

I just heard the same thing here. Said everyone is dumping their cattle ........ interesting. Also said the corn is really bad, even in the better fields. Black Swan?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:57 | Link to Comment jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Is there a chart for pink slime?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 15:52 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

Only idiots burn their food for fuel.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:00 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

That's why on the 8th day, God created the iPad.

Nom, nom, nom.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 15:52 | Link to Comment VonSalza
VonSalza's picture

nom nom nom Deep Fried Black Swan

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:56 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Tastes like chicken.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 15:55 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

I came across some interesting articles about the Gulf Stream actually stopping (Google:  Gulf Stream stoppage) for a while in 2010 and now it has slowed down perceptively.  This has caused unusually harsh winters in Europe, and could possibly be affecting climate conditions around the planet.  While there is no (admitted)  direct causal effect to the BP disaster, scientists opine that the spill could have exacerbated the problem.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:59 | Link to Comment eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

The information I have is that the gulfstream is not heating Europe as much because of the melting of the ice cap in the arctic. This causes the gulfstream to dive as it passes by the northpole on it's way to the gulf of Mexico, and once there it does'nt pick up the same amount of heat for it's return trip. Also it loses momentum for the same reason.

It is speculated that the reason Europe experienced a mini ice age a few hundred years back ( fuzzy on the exact dates or the duration), was because the remnants of the ice sheet that was receding from the last ice age had dammed up a huge amount of water/ ice in and around the region that is now hudson bay in Canada. When that broke loose, it dumped huge amounts of ice cold water into the atlantic causing the same phenomenon that Europe could be facing now.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:04 | Link to Comment Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

The Gulf Stream is a branch of the global thermohaline circulation system. It is primarily driven by brine working its way down through sea ice as it freezes and falling to the seafloor because the cold brine is heavier. The resulting downdraft pulls the warm current northward and makes milder winters in northern Europe.

Now that most of the arctic sea ice is merely seasonal, there isn't nearly as much pull. Result is harsher winters in Europe.

Global Warming is Global. It doesn't care in which little provincial village you live.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment marriedgeordie
marriedgeordie's picture

This winter was mild in northern England.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 15:58 | Link to Comment Sutton
Sutton's picture

The drought gives Ben cover for money printing.  Last year he mentioned dry conditions in NW Kansas as a reason for soaring food prices.  Now he has a record drought, worldwide.  "It's not my fault,bitchez"

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:29 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

I junked your delayed bitchez.

Seriously, BERNANKE (anagram for NE BANKER) always blames the results on the equations.  Typical satanic paper pusher.

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:03 | Link to Comment Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Don't worry, it isn't like core inflation.

 

Food inflation 3-4% in 2013 per bloomberg news

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-25/food-inflation-may-rise-to-3-to-4-in-2013-after-drought-1-.html

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:01 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

long non gmo, non hybrid, organic seeds.....................

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:05 | Link to Comment A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Long water, with which to sew/grow those seeds.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:42 | Link to Comment ForTheWorld
ForTheWorld's picture

Long mulch to put on the soil to prevent that water you've put into the soil from evaporating so quickly in drought conditions.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:02 | Link to Comment youngman
youngman's picture

Supposed to get some rain tonight in Iowa....

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:02 | Link to Comment mick_richfield
mick_richfield's picture

I don't get this.  If the northern hemisphere is getting warmer (and my part of it sure is) there must be more rain, not less.   Where's it all going?  

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:05 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Texas,Florida,and the NE.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:59 | Link to Comment LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

It ain't Texas y'all. I'm living that.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:01 | Link to Comment Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

We've had our share of rain here in the Pacific Northwest.  We had a cool June, lots of rain, more than normal for sure for that time of year.  Now July has been a scorcher, but even still, it has rained at least 3 or 4 times this month (driest time of the year).

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:07 | Link to Comment Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

The water has all been privatized, so rain is illegal.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:14 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

It has been raining like crazy in the UK this spring/summer.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:17 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yeah... the worlds bread basket, the Moors of Lancashire   \sarc

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:25 | Link to Comment Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

Rain in the UK???? You don't say!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:23 | Link to Comment Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

Sweden stole it.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:29 | Link to Comment Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

"and I thought the Swedes were a kindly beer loving people" Homer Simpson

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 23:31 | Link to Comment Boop
Boop's picture

Just because it's warmer, doesn't mean it'll be wetter in your neck of the woods.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 00:09 | Link to Comment sherryw
sherryw's picture

to eastern Australia

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:05 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Priced in, but that doesn't stop them from blaming this for all the inflation instead of the printing they are doing.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:31 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

ANY excuse to maintain the illusion of price stability.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:14 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Why is this a black swan?

Ask any serious climatologist what the eventual effect of AGW would be and this is what would come up... Now in fairness, you can't predict the year, only that the odds progressively increase...

And just wait until an intense El Nino kicks in....

Black swan my ass....

Edit: For shits and giggles, here is the equivalent of Lettermans top 10  reasons why the C02 is anthropogenic

  1. The start of the growth in CO2 concentration coincides with the start of the industrial revolution, hence anthropogenic;
  2. Increase in CO2 concentration over the long term almost exactly correlates with cumulative anthropogenic emissions, hence anthropogenic;
  3. Annual CO2 concentration growth is less than Annual CO2 emissions, hence anthropogenic;
  4. Declining C14 ratio indicates the source is very old, hence fossil fuel or volcanic (ie, not oceanic outgassing or a recent biological source);
  5. Declining C13 ratio indicates a biological source, hence not volcanic;
  6. Declining O2 concentration  indicate combustion, hence not volcanic;
  7. Partial pressure of CO2 in the ocean is increasing hence not oceanic outgassing;
  8. Measured CO2 emissions from all (surface and beneath the sea) volcanoes are one-hundredth of anthropogenic CO2 emissions: hence not volcanic;
  9. Known changes in biomass too small by a factor of 10, hence not deforestation; and
  10. Known changes of CO2 concentration with temperature are too small by a factor of 10, hence not ocean outgassing

From http://www.skepticalscience.com/anthrocarbon-brief.html

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:15 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

You're an idiot, CO2 is a lagging indicator.

CO2 is an artifact of warming not a driver for it.

Now STFU.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:20 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Oh, goodie, a DK sufferng smart ass who wnats to play...

Agreed, if the solar was the primary forcing then C02 would lag as it did in 400,000 years of ice core data... but that was then, this is now...

And C02 is now the primary forcing..

Otherwise care to dispute the above list...

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:25 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

I just can't stoop (dummy down) to your level. I understand math too well, it's part of my training in getting a PhD in Chemistry. There is zero correlation.

Why don't you list the gases that most contribute to the greenhouse effect? I'll help you out with #1 - water vapor. Let me know when you get to CO2, asshole.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:42 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Smart guy... what make you think that I don't have a Ph.D? eh? I'll give you a hint, its in Physics and I have served as a referee on the Physical Review.

We all know that H20 is the primary CHG.... So tell me how much has water vapor (WV) changed in the past 150 years?

Since you are the expert then explain to me the role of the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship for water vapor and temperature and tell us whether WV is a forcing or a feedback? Does WV condense out? Does C02?

What would the temperature of the earth be without VW and C02?

----

People sometimes wonder why I get nasty here at the hedge, here is a example of some fuckwad starting the insults..

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:04 | Link to Comment Rat Patrol
Rat Patrol's picture

Doesn't the fossil record show that high temps coincided with explosions of life? CO2 being plant food and such?

 

I know Canadians and Greenlanders who are cheering on global warming.

 

What do you suppose warmed up the Earth in the past? Dino sized SUVs?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:09 | Link to Comment viahj
viahj's picture

not to mention that all the plant growth increased oygen levels, allowing animal life to get big

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:22 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Well, maybe you could explain what the rate of change was in temperature back then? I mean 10 degrees over 25 million years is one thing, 6 over 200 is another matter...

Do you think humans could evolve in the next 200 years to be happy in 125 degree temps?

Do you think the number of species is currently on the rise? or is it declining?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:40 | Link to Comment narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

The crackpots that flock here are immune to reason, Flak. Otherwise they'd read the skeptical science link and shut up. I'm a geologist and can attest to the intentional ignorance of the deniers. I've given up arguing. Just refer people to

http://www.realclimate.org/

and

http://www.skepticalscience.com/

You can lead an idiot to knowledge but you can't make him think, or as Julius Caesar said, "Men willingly believe whatever they wish."

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:50 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Realclimate is a very good site but at times it can be a little too high brow,...then again, it is the site where the pros show up and discuss shop...

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 00:24 | Link to Comment Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

Been following your Town Crier posts for a long time, and I appreciate the links and info you provide.  Education never hurts.  When BandGap links, I'll give those a read, too.

While you are persistent, even doughty, this is not a site where one can find many open or receptive minds.  If it can't be linked to Jones, Rense, or Icke, then the average ZH loon will dismiss it as sock-puppet, Rothschild-paid psy-op false flag disinformational shilling, then go back to his binoculars to search the heavens for chemtrails.  For this crowd, even if AGW eventually was proven to them to be real, there isn't a problem that exists that cannot be solved with silver stacking, more guns, and a return to the gold standard.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:10 | Link to Comment Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

"Why [increased levels of] CO2 is anthropogenic"  does not = "humans are making the planet warmer"

There is a missing link there somewhere.  Any way, I think people mostly disagree with the conclusions that are then drawn about 'global warming', mainly the idea that "humans caused the problem, humans can fix it" so give the wheel to the Scientific Elite, "they will take care of us". 

People are afraid of the rise of a new elitist, religious entity (this time under the guise of Science), that first gives itself power and then says no one can criticize their actions, they know what is best.

Emissions (not just restricted to CO2) need to be reduced, primarily by corporations though, not the guy on the street.  AGW is being used as a tool to increase the level of state interference in the average person's life, that is all.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 00:20 | Link to Comment Boop
Boop's picture

Science is not a religion, though it can masquerade as one to those who do not learn its secrets.

Just because we put CO2 into the atmosphere, does not mean that we can take it out, and just because we've warmed the planet does not mean that we can cool it.

"people mostly disagree"...  Which people? People who have studied the climate for decades, or Fox listeners?  You're right that the Fox listeners are more numerous than the scientists; however, which is likelier to be correct? (Edit/edit: I see we agree that global warming is unlikely to be fixed. Mea Culpa. Of course that would only lend greater urgency to stop emitting... too bad we can't, for many, many reasons, just stop emitting, then)...

 

Take a listen to this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7ktYbVwr90&feature=player_embedded

 

And maybe read this: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new...

EDIT: and also take a look at these curves: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record#Proxies:_tree_rings.2C_i... representing the climate over the last 2000 and 12000 years.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:14 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

Right, I caught that right away. You're even shittier at lying about yourself. Aren't you a Navy Seal too?

Clausius-Clapyron? Last time I used that was to figure the triple point of a gas at a certain temperature, probably back in the early 80s. Wow, you don't know shit about thermodynamics, either? Tell me, did you get your "PhD" through the mail? Give it up, you're just another hysterical dick running around trying to get attention by telling everyone the sky is falling.

Is that how you get the chicks? Hahahahahahaha! You're still an asshole.

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:44 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

So, what exactly does describe the equilbrium point for WV in the atmosphere?

Remind me how WV levels has changed over the past 150 years....

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:57 | Link to Comment BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

We were fucking heading for the CARBON DEATH of the planet. CARBON DEATH = Plants dying and lying down and being covered up. No carbon circulating around our lovely planet = no life. Thank God (or whoever) Man came along and started putting it back in circulation. Period.....end of discussion.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 01:14 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

You see, once again its all those damned savers hoarding too much, causing everything to shut down.

They're reporting there is over $21 trillion hoarded up in off-shore tax havens; well, if those rich people aren't going to do their duty and circulate that money, Obama needs to confinscate it and make it rain for his people.

If trees and oil reservoirs are going to hoard all the CO2 so plants cannot grow, we must burn it all to get things going again.

Everytime the hoarders threaten our way of life, it is a call for men of action to take bold steps to resolve these imbalances. 

/sarc

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 00:14 | Link to Comment Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

"just another hysterical dick running around trying to get attention telling everyone the sky is falling"

I believe you just highlighted the mission statement of Zerohedge, at least the Comments Section.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:33 | Link to Comment Doña K
Doña K's picture

 

 

  1. The planet will be here long after we are done killing each other.
  2. SUV's and trucks will no longer be able to run on gas 50-100 years from now.
  3. 50-100 years from now, population on earth will max as a function of nature not human engineering.
  4. 50-100 years from now, solar, mini-nuclear, fussion and whatever else is invented will power the grid.
  5. 50-100 years from now, you may not need a grid, as power will be totally local and perhaps mobile.
  6. More
  7. More

 Where is the problem?

I will be taking my sailboat out this afternoon. (I will walk to the marina and I will not turn on the engine. Promise)

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:13 | Link to Comment Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

People will ride more bicycles, sailing ships will become crucial to international trade once again, and gas stations will be replaced with horse stables  :)

In good time!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 23:41 | Link to Comment Boop
Boop's picture

How many people? Certainly not 10 billion of them.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:54 | Link to Comment Urban Roman
Urban Roman's picture

That was then. In previous warming periods, there wasn't a swarm of termites digging up all the fossil carbon and spewing it into the air.

This time, the carbon comes first, and it is a leading forcing factor.

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 01:06 | Link to Comment NaN
Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:16 | Link to Comment Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

Wrong again Quiz Kid

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:21 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Your handle says it all. you are clueless and an economist...

Studying economics is for people that can't do heavy lifting if you get my drift, now go back to sleep...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:34 | Link to Comment BandGap
Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:18 | Link to Comment mr. mirbach
mr. mirbach's picture

Would CO2 levels be as high if the Amazon Rainforest had not had a swath the size of Texas clear cut??

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:25 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

A fair question but you have to explain the 10 observations and that cannot...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:28 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

You don't even understand what you wrote, dipshit.  Why don't you study the ocean-gas cycle and report back? Start with this - when water absorbs CO2 it becomes carbonic acid, thus lowering the pH. Why don't you correlate the CO2 levels with ocean pH and get back to the group.

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:35 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I think you are blowing smoke...

Would you like to explain the following figures

http://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/carbon/7a.html

Umm... decreasing pH, increasing dissolved C02 at Mauna Loa and Aloha....

My fuck, do you think blustering bullshit is going to frighten me?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:42 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

I'm not the one spewing bullshit. Have fun playing with your hockey stick model.

You're a tool, there are so many of you who take a little bit of truth and expand it into complete hysteria. Mathematically, there is no correlation.

You know, you expel both water vapor AND CO2, so help the planet along and expire. tahnks.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You have been fucking pwned.. deal with it, asshole and maybe you should be the one STFU before you make a bigger fool of yourself...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:16 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

When did you win the Nobel again? Was it right after the Congressional Medal of Honor or before you invented Cheez Whiz?

Pindick.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:56 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Is that all you got? If I did not know better, I'd swear I was back in Elementary School during recess...

Somebody should slip a cunt over your head and fuck some sense into you.....

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 08:12 | Link to Comment WojtekSz
WojtekSz's picture

BandGap + FlakMeister

 

yeah - i do really enjoy your scientific discussion. Is it always so much fun when scientists meet?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:42 | Link to Comment mr. mirbach
mr. mirbach's picture

If there were MORE Calvin cycles there would be LESS CO2 regardless of the source. 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:02 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Why don;t you compute how much more biomass would be required to neutralize the anthropogenic C02 from fossil fuels and get back to us....

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:17 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

Mouse fetish?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:19 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

Don't you have some food to burn

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:20 | Link to Comment Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

As I was reading the article I was thinking it wouldn't be long til a AGW wanker showed up. Low and behold here you are.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:23 | Link to Comment surf0766
surf0766's picture

@vv funny as all hell. I was thinking the same thing.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:23 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Ah yes, and let me guess you are "manly denier"?  or just plain ignorant?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:48 | Link to Comment Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

The article is discussing the affect of the drought on corn price. You had no input regarding the article but instead have taken the position that because there is a drought (weather) then there is AGW. Hot, cold, rain, shine, sleet, or snow; wankers like you will always cry "it's AGW".

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:15 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Nope...

I am taking the position that droughts like this one will become a more common occurance because of AGW....and they will be more intense....

Hell, the southern swath of Corn Belt will be incinerated within 40 years....

Chew on this

http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1204/1204.1286.pdf

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:19 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

Sort of like the 1930s and the Dustbowl?

Do you not read history, too? You know, the 1930s, the hottest decade on record, when all them bad gasses wuz just pilin' up.

Time for you to wear the special hat, right?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:24 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I am disappointed... you claim a Ph.D. and then you trot out complete bullshit without any backing...

The 30's were not the hottest decade, not even close either globally or in the CONUS...You are not allowed to make stuff up... Didn't your supervisor point that out to you?

1934 was the 47th warmest year on record globally... google it at NOAA if you like...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:31 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

Get a girlfriend.

1934 = a decade? No wonder you have fucked things up. Still pondering your use of Clausius-Clapyron in this "debate". One of us understands thermodynamics, you see....... 

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:50 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

S = k ln w

 

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 17:54 | Link to Comment deflator
deflator's picture

You do realise that despite any and all possible reasoning we will not do anything to mitigate climate change? The reason is the time frame of present human beings lifespan is very short in comparison to the timeframe of the problem and what would be needed for mitigation.

2. It's a liberal agenda! #yawn% ---Everyone at fight club knows that the left/right paradigm is BS. Disclaiming a certain belief based on one side or the other should be confirmation--not dismissal. Evidence? Al Gore is a terrible actor....

I could go on and on but fuck it who cares except fucktard trolls that worship the status quo?

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 20:04 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yes, I am very aware of the odds and the likely outcome... but you still gotta try...

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 01:23 | Link to Comment NaN
NaN's picture

That ditto head meme is "1934 is the hottest year on record"

That was debunked: http://www.ossfoundation.us/projects/environment/global-warming/feedbacks/projects/environment/global-warming/myths 

The error is that the "hottest year" claim was for US only, but this was repeated as if it pertained to the whole planet.  

Global warming is about massive data analysis to separate signal from noise; if you think a few isolated facts contradict the whole theory and there is no need to look further, then you are suffering from confirmation bias.

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:17 | Link to Comment Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

Do you just ignore the downvotes?

If I started 'pushing' some bullshit theory on people and everyone was downvoting me I would go back and check the research to make sure the side I was arguing is correct but you don't care what people think do you?

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:29 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yep...BFD, science ain't a popularity contest....

You should have seen the down votes I used to get when peak oil was discussed...

You should pay attention to quality of the posts, are they factual, can they be verified....

And as you can see, nobody has come up with anything to counter what I post....

And as for checking the research, it should be very clear who is actually doing that and not echoing their ideological desires....

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:43 | Link to Comment Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

It's quite simple, where does 99% of the heat on this planet come from? The Sun.

The amount of solar irradiance or heat leaving the sun does vary. A well followed example is the number of sunspots present on the surface of the sun at any one time and the length of the sunspot cycles.  More sunspots, which have bright, hot haloes around them, correlate well with a warmer surface of the Earth.  Fewer sunspots generally correlate with cooler times. Also, the length of the sunspot cycles correlates with Earth's temperature.  Trying to forecast the climate changes with models that do not include solar variations, the 20+ other climate drivers and a timeframe of atleast 100,000 years cannot be expected to result in reliable outcomes or ranges of outcomes.

It's simple science, if you do not include all the variables in the equation then the conclusion will be flawed.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:01 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Umm...

The global temperature and the solar flux decoupled about 40 years ago...

Please explain figure 1:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming.htm

and this paper

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/4/044022

Can you show data to demonstrate otherwise?

Also explain why night time temperatures are rising faster than daytime temperatures?

http://150.229.66.66/staff/jma/2004GL019998.pdf

Explain why the stratosphere is cooling while the troposphere is warming....

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Stratospheric-Cooling-and-Tropospheric-Warming.html

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:47 | Link to Comment Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

Please explain figure 1:

Considering the age of the planet why would you look at data from only the last 40 years? That's like examining someones entire life based on 1 second of observation, just bad science.

and this paper

Again this whitepaper only looks at data going back to 1979, the data is incomplete. Show me data for the last 100,000 years that supports your position and I will take the time to rebuttle.



Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:05 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Nope, you cannot just pick and choose. You have to explain the data;

Here is reconsructions of the solar flux going back much further

http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-activity-sunspots-global-warming-advanced.htm

Read and learn... I cannot spoon feed this stuff...

As for the FR 2011 paper, you can see that the analysis demonstrated that the sun cannot explain the data... Very simple, so if it not the sun, then what?

Here is a paper that goes back to 1889..

http://skepticalscience.com/lean-and-rind-estimate-man-made-and-natural-global-warming.html

Like Foster and Rahmstorf, Lean and Rind (2008) performed a multiple linear regression on the temperature data, and found that while solar activity can account for about 11% of the global warming from 1889 to 2006, it can only account for 1.6% of the warming from 1955 to 2005, and had a slight cooling effect (-0.004°C per decade) from 1979 to 2005

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 19:29 | Link to Comment Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

Again the data in the first article used for comparison of the suns thermal output to Global temperatures only goes back to 1979. You can throw that out of the window.

The second article only goes back 100 years, thats still only 0.0000001 of the earths existance, but I will rebuttle anyways.

Lean and Rind 2008 fit a linear model of various forcings to the observations and show significant trends. They don’t test that the assumptions required for fitting a linear model apply (although they do observe that their error margins do not include uncertainties in either the temperature observations or the forcings to the time series), and consequently they overstate the accuracy of their estimates.

Huber and Knutti 2011 use an abstraction of an ensemble of GCMs constrained to surface temperatures. The link between the forcings and energy budget as determined from the model are reported. Gillett et al. 2012 adjusts the output of an ensemble of runs from a GCM to fit temps and attribution of that to forcings, and then uses that to forecast future temps. In then main these are papers about GCMs. Only Lean and Rind 2008 model observations directly, but fail to test the assumptions of their model.

If you believe that GCMs adequately model our current climate then you might draw the inferences, however the uncertainty in GCMs is understated and is far from an exact science. Combine this with the lack of long term data and you have some pretty shitty evidence that humans are the dominant cause of global warming.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 20:29 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Sorry... you must explain the data and the best data we have is over the past 100 years or so...

And we have correlated temperature with solar activity going back ~350 years....

If your criticism of Lean and Rind was valid then the proof would be in the residuals...

Are the residuals uniformly distributed? Is there any trend or anomalies in the residual distributions? No...

BTW. what exact assumptions are untested in your opinion? After all, it is a purely data driven analysis....

I did not bring up HK and Gilett results because, while being valid, they do rely on a GCM....

Face it, it aint the sun any more,  C02 took over about 40 years ago after we cut back on the S02 aerosols...

All models have limitations, but you can get pretty robust predictions from simple ones (1975 and 1981):

http://www.skepticalscience.com/lessons-from-past-climate-predictions-broecker.html

http://www.skepticalscience.com/lessons-from-past-predictions-hansen-1981.html

The "skeptics" pooh-poohed such papers but fail to any credible predictions that stand the test of time.... i.e. see Roy Spencer or Lindzen...

You should check out

http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models-intermediate.htm

It is by no means complete, but it is a start....

 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 20:46 | Link to Comment Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

Lean and Rind's model is flawed and 100 years is insufficient data to model solar output to global temperatures so no I do not have to explain your swiss cheese data and erroneous models.

You need to look at the data for the last 1 million plus years and then compare that to the last 200 years. How do you expect to model anything without historical data?

A large swathe of climatologists and atmospheric researchers want the big grant money again and again so they come up with these crappy models using almost no data, it is a fucking joke and so is your argument.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 21:02 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Beg pardon? What model? There is no model in L+R....

It is purely data driven, here are the driving factors, here are the residuals, Either it works or it blows up...

BTW, the Vostock data is 400,000 years and we can model that pretty well. Given that goes back beyond the emergence of modern H. Sapiens, I would say that its more than adequate for an Earth dominated by humans...

BTW, it is the paleodata that is foremost in reaching the conclusion that we are indeed now in the Anthropocene era.... 

Or do you think the 400,000 year C02 and temperature record is wrong?

I mean, WTF, C02 is between 180 and 280 ppmv for half a million years and then we started burning 200 millions years worth of sequestered carbon in 150 years blowing C02 levels sky high... Hell Arrhenius predicted AGW back in 1896....

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 21:21 | Link to Comment ClassicalLib17
ClassicalLib17's picture

Dear Mr. Flakmeister,  you seem very angry in your presentation.  Are you by chance bi-polar?  Do you also post under the pseudonym Freddie?   He makes more sense than you.  In case you are wondering,  I am not a genius.  Matter of fact, I barely made it through high school.  But my house is paid off, I am debt free, and I bought Pb when it was low.  With the equivalent amount of powder and primers to boot.  Don't be so angry.  You come across as some kind of a phony.  God bless 

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 23:44 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I'm not angry, just saddenned if anything.... And just so you get the facts straight, I didn't start the insults... check the time stamps... 

I give as good, if not better than I get,....Surely as a gun owner you would understand that....

Glad to hear that you are doing well...

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 07:30 | Link to Comment memyselfiu
memyselfiu's picture

You know what I like to do Paul (if that is your real name) is copy and paste a person's diatribe when it seems entirely too intelligent based on that person's posting history- lo and behold I can now see what websites that person has plagiarized his 'thoughts' from- nice work!

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

Posting garbage science on a site doesn't make it a fact. That's why assholes like you get used. You believe it because you can't unravel it but you spew it like you know it.

Now, which one are you in the video?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ElJFYwRtrH4

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 18:05 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Are you sure that your Ph.D was not in economics?

Thu, 07/26/2012 - 00:18 | Link to Comment Cosimo de Medici
Cosimo de Medici's picture

One of my forebears had a long scuffle over that flat Earth thing.  He was persistent, however, and ignored all the downvotes. In the end, nobody fell off the edge after all.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:23 | Link to Comment crkennedymd
crkennedymd's picture

You forgot number zero. The charts show that the rise in temperatures throughout history PRECEDE the rise in CO2; hence you and Letterman are buffoons

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:27 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

If you knew what you were talking about you would realize that we are no longer in the regime where the Milankovith cycles are the primary forcing....

But the science literacy here at the hedge has never been its strong point...

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:32 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

Wow, you're really stupid. WTF is "science literacy"? And, do you just like to look at the pictures? 

I know who doesn't know shit about what they are talking about. Looks like most people here do, too.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 16:51 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You are a blowhard asshole that has yet to come with a valid scientific argument despite your claims....

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:23 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

I read the mathematical arguement being made in 1998, turdbreath. And since they didn't disclose the variables, or how they were weighted (principal centered components in a corelation model), I just waited. And, lo and behold, when they did about 4 years ago, the scientist (who got $$$ for his "research") was found to have fudged (get you hard?) the numbers. Now they are shamed and I feel like math is still math.

Bugfucker.

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:37 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

There ypu go again.... You are making stuff up on the fly, provide credible evidence of your claim... Hint: a blog funded by the Heartland Institute ain't credible...

Hell, the hockey stick has been so vindicated it is now a hockey team for chrissakes...

Here is an independent study from 2010

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-0459.2010.00399.x/pdf

and a laymans overview

http://www.skepticalscience.com/new-remperature-reconstruction-vindicates.html

Wed, 07/25/2012 - 17:45 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

Wait a minute, why don't you quote one of your peer reviewed Physics journals? You know, the ones you claim to referee? Or show the math you think substantiates this crap? Better yet, and I have friends that can do this, take us through the hockey stick equation. Someone with a "PhD" in physics should be able to do this......

Math is math, the hockey stick model contained a subroutine that inflated the numbers so it would look like something was happening.

Tree ring circus! Get it?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!