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The Deer Is Back As Markets Go 'Reality-On'
Today wasn't the worst plunge in the stock market so far this year... It was the second-worst by a whisper. And just like that we are one third of the way down to Goldman's target. But everything is priced in? It seems that between the realization that global growth may actually be slowing (between China PMI and this morning's Philly Fed) and the recognition that there is no-QE-without-a-crash, markets began to lose steam early on this morning (led by energy names crushed by the biggest two-day drop in oil in over 9 months). Then Goldman's timely note to short the market if you want Bernanke to act (and the rumors of pending global bank downgrades) sent us over the edge as the S&P lost its upchannel and plunged (down over 40pts from its highs of Tuesday). The Dow is following a very worrisome pattern (echoing last year far too well) as it lost the second most points in 8 months. Gold (and the rest of the commodity complex - led by WTI -7% this week) fell notably as the USD surged to up almost 1% on the week. Gold's and USD's moves suggested further pain for the S&P as Treasuries stabilized at notably better levels and did not plunge on the day (though much of this is equities playing catch up to a longer-term dislocation). VIX jumped over 3 vols back over 20% (as perhaps the jump in implied correlation we highlighted was on to something). AUD (as we suggested) was crushed as risk-on trades drive carry-off and the China trade dumped it by the most in a day since November (almost back to parity). Heavy volume and a big pick up in average trade size suggest this has more to run as broke back under the 50DMA and back inside the down-channel for the S&P.
To summarize all of the above, we go back to our favorite visual description:
Today wasn't the worst plunge in the stock market so far this year... It was the
second-worst by a whisper. And just like that we are one third of the way down
to Goldman's target.
and if you were wondering why Goldman thinks 1285 is the level...remember this chart from a day or two ago?
The Dow is following a very ominous pattern with its second largest drop in eight months...
and today's trainwreck hit all our levels on the way down...
and medium term we are back under the 50DMA, back inside the downtrend channel and saw volume (and average trade size - lower pane) pick up notably in the S&P 500 e-mini futures...
Oil's 2-day drop is the highest in 9 months...
The week so far in commodity-land...
and the last few days across asset classes...
Stocks priced in gold have gone largely sideways for the last few months but remain at an important level...
and on a longer-term basis, CONTEXT (a proxy for risk-assets in general) has had a very different tale to tell over the past few months (this is not the day-to-day model we use but a longer-term indication of what global risk markets is saying about relative ebullience or pessimism in stocks)...
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
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Equities and commodities finally paid attention to bonds today. And fact that ZIRP is not growth inducing in the Real Economies of Developed World.
~I see the Dow Jones and I want to paint it RED.
If you invert the image in photoshop,
you can see Timmy and Bernank taking turns
butt fucking the DEER.
http://imageshack.us/f/692/63518629j.jpg/
deer turns his head back to tim and bernake and ask, is that what you call shorting the market?
that deer's about to become venison. question is who's gonna get the primest cut?
Ohhh yeah.. the fish eye.. been there.. ;)
And the deer's female, so ... draw your own conclusions.
Does anyone still remember what followed the largest drop this year?
Why the largest gain , of course
Why didn't someone step up to the plate today for the save?
They tried to rape the deer but it got away, for a second... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8FBxS-00xU&feature=player_embedded
Painting the DOW Jones red
We're painting the Dow Jones red
We dare not stop
We'll liquidate our drop
So let the Red be spread
We're painting DOW Jones red
We're painting DOW Jones red
Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, painting the DOW Jones red.
From this day forward the DOW Jones will be known as the DOWN Jones until such time a black paint liquidity is injected by the bearded one.
Dick meet the Stones
Public education at its best.
Unless they leave the QE tap on constantly, the market will continue to go down.
http://jimrickards.blogspot.ca/
You have too much sympathy for the devil.
come on, isn't the deer related to the whale....or just the other side of it...the real deers got killed off a long time ago,
and please don't tell me that you really think the drop was moody's downgrade related....
I'm surprised there are any deer left to hit. Soon it's going to be Deathrace 2012 on the rest of the herd.
Bernanke is now caught in the ZIRP liquidity trap. He clearly dodged the question brought by the Japanese reporter in yesterday's news conference. The only thing the FED will produce now is Stagflation. The 'master of the universe' will soon see what he's wrought - failure. Here's the logic:
He's trapped & we all are as we go down with them. Gold is the only solution to ease the transition until the sovereign & bank defaults have subsided.
who turned the reality on on who...but a nice pic.
Venison bItChEz!
On the grill...
"Chance favors a prepared mind." I forget who.
Or in this case a prepared portfolio.
Chinese Fanged Water Deer:
http://mlkshk.com/p/3PZ2
The 401(k)/calPERS/pension/retirement-funds-in-equity-markets crowd that the TBTF will take hostage as they slam the "stock market" until they get cargo holds full of more free money (debt accretive) from The Bernank.
Same old song and dance as 2008-2009. Hank Paulson's 'Tanks in the streets and martial law" moments, verson 2.0.
http://farm1.staticflickr.com/27/100874288_a5ff91b322.jpg
You mean like this?
http://www.ksdk.com/rss/article/324989/3/Dont-be-alarmed-US-Army-trainin...
Or like this:
Citizen detainment: Why is the Senate so determined to allow members of the U.S. MILITARY to detain and/or arrest U.S. Citizens
The Death of Posse Comitatus via NDAA 2012Los Angeles Times - Jun 3, 2012
There are only 100 "senators."
There are a lot more of us muppets.
nothing much funnier than someone who is a paid party operative on zH to pretend he is a muppet
thxz so much for this!
I really hate when a website will not let you return to where you were.
I'm serving venison for dinner tonight actually. Kind of ironic.
Actually I'm not sure that's irony, I think it's just coincidence.
Oh, so you're one of those people...
Competent? Aware? Capable?
Ha!
It's synchronicity.
How bad was the damage to the car ???
yep. me too. ground deer steaks. fresh tomatoes, squash, cucumbers, potatoes....yep. all fresh. since NOTHING on my plate was from a store, my message to TPTB...suck it.
Muppet meat bitChez!
Coming soon to an America near you, Muppetilism. Muppets eating Muppets. Yum!
Soylent Green muppet style eh?
/Or is it only Soylent Green when its Kermit the frog? otherwise its just Soylent or what?
"My God, Bernanke, these FRNs are.... Soylent Green!"
Ben: Evil Laugh.
No, its cotton. Milo Minderbinder bought a lot of cotton. Got caught in a catch 22.
+1 for Moniker, +1 for Avatar
Comment strikes a little close to home for me, tho... ;)
fuu,
janus was thinkin bout you the other day...actually, it's the other way around -- janus was thinkin about lancelot link, and the ole fuu ikon popped in the cabeza.
so, here ya go...this is from back in the day; back when nick at nite ruled the airwaves:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JMkKKX3IsY
monkey biz,
janus
That is pure win!
To get that QE they must distroy.
My EBT, My EBT, My EBT, My EBT, I swipe my EBT.
Waidmannsheil, fellow short companions!
I <3 the Deer.
Well at least we closed off the lows ;->
If we only hit the Goldman 1285 I'll be pissed. Ramp the market 300 S&P points on a sugar high - give back 100 and scream for more sugar...
You don't want the DTs to kick in... it's a sure bet though, it gets harder to get high with every use.
QE dependent markets just threw a tantrum...
"Don't rush to judgement until all the facts are in." - Dr. Strangelove
Actually, if I remember correctly, that was said by General Buck Turgidson, played by George C Scott.
"Gentlemen! You can't fight in here! This is the War Room!"
Mr. Market, throwing a temper tantrum.
Are you watching, Bernanke?
Second time this year the deer appears. Fingers crossed that this trend is my friend.
L0L!!!
risk0ff at least as that on-again-off-again trend continues
this is a huge deflationary bite outa the mogamboTrinity
but the FED is the chairsatan of the credit world and he has a little black hole to deal with b4 flooshing any more of our futures down it for the near future; and, people need to get their checks too
the VIX is recovering nicely from the options expiry blues
glad you will let tyler swear; say hi to the pony for us, eh?
@lizzy36
We broke SPX 1327. It's on.
Gold got slammed what a crock
Paper GLD is so easy to bend, fold and burn.
Real GOLD, not so much.
Most sheeple still view gold as an investment/security, not a store of wealth. So it will continue to behave like one. The good news is that you can still get bullion at a small premium over the smacked-down paper price.
Even PMs go down in a deflationary environment. It's something I've said repeatedly here but few seem to want to hear it. It is historical. Just look to gold after the 1929 crash. Everything goes down.
I've suggested relatively rising PMs based upon uncertainty in markets but not the huge bull market, at least not right away. The market will need to shake out the weak hands that are holding gold first and that is what downward pressure will do. As the debt implosion spreads to the US, people will even sell their gold to raise cash to cover US dollar based debts.
Extreme patience is the key here and not having debts in which you become one of the weak hands that has to sell your PMs.
The Metals will drop a little.
How much is a little. Who cares, you own it right?
The debt is easily serviced and kept current each month. No worries.
I actually see the rise and fall in the price of gold more of a measurement of the strength of the dollar. Example: in the 1800's a 1 oz gold coin would buy you a state of the art winchester repeater rifle with ammo, today that same 1 oz of gold will buy you a AR15 semi-automatic rifle and some ammo. Difference is the winchester rifle was probably around 100 dollars, today AR15 is around 1500 dollars. The value of the gold has not changed, just the inflationary value of our dollar. Todays PM fall was a result of the US dollar increasing in strength. Just my two cents.
Yeah, well, gold is still some 40% above Dr. Doom's ceiling of $1100.
Not as bad as silver. Plus, gold is still sorta positive for the year.
negative ramp-fest bitchez
Someone laughed at me Monday when I said stocks will fall 3-5% in one week after the bernanke turns off the spigot. They laughed at me. FUCK EM.
Don't worry about it. Just take their money.
"let's wait and see what the job numbers are..."
LMAO
Moody's stuck on the 18th hole?
Or will they decide not to downgrade so markets can rally?
Don't worry, it'll be risk on, reality off, full retard by next Monday.
How?
They're almost out of paper mache unicorns.
Tyler,
sometimes janus neglects praise where you are concerned. you are one bad-ass mutha fucker. you are a personal hero of janus. and i doubt if even 10% of the people who visit this site recognize its importance.
janus has no idea 'whom' tyler is...and likes not knowing. i do, however, know this: tyler durden is no fuckin joke...the free analysis we get here is priceless. and then the serious among us have to endure a bunch of snarky bull-shit by no talent pukes who, obviously, don't take the time to even read.
in any event, a long-overdue dedication to TD:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nv2Thlik6ck
out of the night that covers me/
black as the pit from pole to pole/
...i am unafraid,
janus
Well said.
Damn right. TD might not always get it right but he usually does...and does so more than the flapping mouthed, talking heads of the msm. Most of all the analysis is honest at the very least. If you aren't reading ZH, you f*cking well should be.
Another kind of dedication:
http://madscienceunlimited.com/fiction/thisHeartOfGold.html
Three safes in the bedroom, and three more in the living room. One tiger to bring them all and in the darkness ... bind them.
Well said Janus, good to here from you again. Question for you, why does you bio read like Alexander the great, but you are named after Janus the Roman two faced god? Not complaining, I appreciate a person that puts some thought behind their ZH ID. Just wonder if there is a message there....
great to see you again, ole amigo.
oh yeah, lots and lots of BIG MESSAGE. the name was most carefully selected. i'll give a bit of a hint -- two faces: 1) here on ZH. 2) the 'real' janus who has a rare gift for public speaking.
janus, the other demi-god (my namesake) had an interesting story -- it may be worth investigating.
anyway, it's gonna be a hoot!
long live liberty!
a lil dedication to john locke:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqC_Gma221M&feature=related
&
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNSy4DX60vk&feature=related
&
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aMfkVGCU_BA
boyz, we have a massive gangster/mafioso--syndicate to eviscerate...time to get raw.
when i get to the bottom/
i go back to the top,
janus
I await the day we have deersign the likes of which even god has never seen.
+1 for the dune reference
Another +1.
The Spice Must Flow, House Bernanke.
I must not fiat. Fiat is the mind-killer. Fiat is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fiat. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when my fiat is gone I will turn and face fiat's path, and only gold will remain.
“The convoluted wording of legalisms grew up around the necessity to hide from ourselves the violence we intend toward each other. Between depriving a man of one hour from his life and depriving him of his life there exists only a difference of degree. You have done violence to him, consumed his energy.”
Sorry to keep posting this - just can't help it ......
Deer In The Headlights …..
Urban Dictionary:
A mental state of high arousal caused by anxiety, fear, panic, surprise and/or confusion, or substance abuse. A person experiencing the "deer in headlights" syndrome often shows behavioral signs reminding those of a deer subjected to a car's headlights, such as widely opened eyes and a transient lack of motor reactions.
Mike doesn't like cars; he's like a deer in headlights when he goes to his driving lessons
Wiki Answer
When deer are in the dark say by the side of the road and a car's headlights shine on them, they are blinded momentarily and are susceptible to being shot. That why this method of deer hunting is against the law.
It is an expression that means that you are too stunned to move. In other words you are terrified. It comes from when you catch a deer in your headlights and they just freeze.
The Word Detective
We do know that “to look like a deer in the headlights” leaped into the public vernacular in a big way with the 1988 Presidential campaign of George H.W. Bush. Bush’s running mate, Senator James Danforth (“Dan”) Quayle, was widely (and arguably unfairly) regarded as unprepared for the job of Vice President. During a debate with Senator Lloyd Bentsen, Quayle defensively compared his level of experience to that of John F. Kennedy when he became President, to which Bentsen famously replied “Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you’re no Jack Kennedy.”
Using English
When one is caught off guard and needs to make a decision, but can not react quickly enough.
Oxford
Used to refer to a state of fear, panic, or confusion so extreme that it is impossible to act or think normally: faced with too many choices and not enough real information, we are like deer caught in the headlights, his deer-in-the-headlights expression
Wiktionary
Deer in the headlights (uncountable)
(idiomatic) A mental state of high arousal caused by anxiety fear, panic, surprise and/or confusion, or substance abuse. The behavioral signs are like a deer subjected to a car's headlights, such as widely opened eyes and a lack of motor reactions.
The deer is back.
thanks for tediously explaining the fucking obvious you cretin
Thank God Tyler didn't use a complicated metaphor.
I have lots of deer on my property. They freeze like that because all us predators are better at picking up motion then we are at picking a motionless object out of scene. When the deer determines you have seen it regardless of its stillness it will run.
Gosh, I love those Deer Days...
We are paying for our hypocrisy. Our stocks fall by 3%, 4% or so and we panic even though we still have well over 90% left. Now can we all wake up and realise how someone who has lost 100% of hs job or 100% of his unemployment benefits feels?
If we fixated on the human misery and tried some trickle up econmics, i am quite sure the stock markets of the world would follow.
I don’t know that people with jobs realize what it is to have family responsibilities and bills to pay and things you’ve planned and invested in for your life and your family and it has all come to a complete stop; you can’t get anything and you can’t do anything. And a day labor job is not going to fix your problems.
And it’s especially bad for those people who have one line of work; they’ve been trained for something and now…well…
I feel for these people.
If you can't feed em, don't breed em
Doe says "Is that a shotgun or are you just happy to see me?"
<+====Got Some?====
robo?
He's too busy buyign up all the LULU stock
It's really difficult to conduct trading activities when the screen is covered in bloody spitum and your hands are convulsing...
Off topic: G O A L !
I am partial to this deer, only replace the mountain lion with a bear.
http://verydemotivational.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/demotivational-pos...
That's me in the background.
Just so you all know I didn't kill the guy but right after this was taken I shook him down for most of a fifth of Glenfiddich, and his hat.
He kept the deer. It was a good day all around.
Benevolent cougar.
Is this just another bear trap?
Crazy market.
I do think the market will fall dramatially this year 15- 30%.
I've started to feel like every drop is - but notice the QE's keep getting smaller and smaller
QE1/TARP: $800 billion - $1,600 billion
QE 2: $700 billion
Twist 1/2 - $400 billion and $250 billion respectively
Stock market movement since QE 1: DOW + 150%. Total stock market valuation: $15 trillion. Total QE: $3 tillion. $3 trillion in QE adds $7 trillion in market value. The stock market is overvalued. Duh
here is a little tidbit for all the long dollar/yen traders. 2012/06/22 00:07 - Ozawa May Consider Creating New Party Unless Noda Drops Tax Hike Plan
I might fade that trade in Asia, if I see Exporter/real money buying yen in Asia.
It doesn't look like we are too many days away from the Death Cross on SP. Do many real traders use that anyway?
Love the deer! It has been a while
The deer intervals are getting close together. Maybe we should head to the hospital before the water breaks.
Hey Robotrader what does this mean?
tweeted:
ALERT: Abercrombie & Fitch says they have identified another 180 stores to close over the next few years.Submitted -82996 secs agofrom twitter.com by editor
on the bright side twitter is working again
Didn't take long for NSA to suck that mother clean, did it?
Jr's irrevocable trust payments are down.
O No0O - not the deers again! Aiiiiiiiiiieeeeeeeeeee
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7CHp7f2SlpY/TdcbJEs1Z3I/AAAAAAAADlo/kUde7SwL1C...
Why is it that I get uncontrolable laughter everytime I see that pic of the deer?
...is it because you typically light up a bone this time of day?
Bulls, bears, pigs and deer Dept:
Sold QQQ puts and bought SPY calls before the close:
http://richcash8tradeblog.blogspot.com/
"This bitch is going down."
Tyler, Please, Please make this a headline with the deer.
Forward into the glorious future. Our banners streaming, our EBT cards fully charged, the sun glinting off the burnished brass of our breasplates (well actually pot-metal), we strode boldly forth....what was I saying?
Matt Taibbi @mtaibbi
The scam Wall Street learned from the mafia
http://t.co/WDsbOYi6
Is a whisper thinner than a whisker?
venison tenderloin with onion and shitake mushrooms in red wine tonight for dinner, time to tune up the crossbow, Oct 1 only 100 days away, got to restock the freezer, no more deer pics please,,,,,
that deer just shiton mushrooms...
Picked up 2 doe tags yesterday.
Good Hunting to ya.
Here, it's around 15 September for rifle/shotgun.
The dogs are getting antsy.
Disclosure: I am a (the) Bear, I am currently short, and I am no Robo.
This said, Beware the next seven days ... should the Supreme Court declare Obamacare unconstitutional there will be a magnificent rally. One that we haven't seen since the heady days of 2000. If it goes the other way the fall accelerates. Further, will Israel use the announcement as cover for an Iranian invasion? The Egyptian elections are essentially over and I believe Israel will watch for a covering event to launch.
If so, immerse yourself with oil ... soon.
If this dollar keeps getting stronger, I'll never spend it! Right, Ben? wink wink nudge nudge
SCOTUS will save the deer here soon....but only for a few days. Then it's down to 1270 at least.
I looked out my highrise window and saw what looks to be Bill Gross dancing out in the streets...kinda like that Ferris Bueller guy!
dedication to the market:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1WI0GxwyD0I
we don't need no water/
let the mutha fucker burn,
janus
TSX drops 351 points:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2012/06/21/markets-thursday.html
On a long enough timeline the survival rate for every deer drops to zero?
A deer with head lice.
Not to worry. saul steinberg's barren, speech impedimented, philo semite fag hag guineau daughter in law who sucks dicks for rides in private planes, mawia boddiwomo sees value in "duh banx".
God, they can't even get bove or any of the other parade of criminals to even show their faces anymore and say they are "dipping their toes in the water". You know its's bad.
I'm getting me a 12 pack and some bath salts. Gonna be a face ripper folks!
gravity sucks, but its the law
but FB is still holding its own. LOL
Hey Tyler: The site, which is the the best financial site out there, loses credibility when you let gross, sexist posts like the one "which way western" just wrote, go up.......no one, not even mb deserves to be talked about like that.
Everything written is true.
What's gross is that fat, sloppy, retarded, 0 jeopardy-scoring, tony danza in drag slut is on television pretending to be a "journalist" and an "expert" when all she is, is an obese, childless fraud, fooling no one.
It looks like Ben Bernanke is in complete control of the price of gold and since gold is "real money" then Bernanke is in complete control of real money. The US$ is not backed by gold, gold is backed by the US$. That's the real operation twist.
Ladies and gentlemen we will arriving at earth core shortly. Please put your tray tables up and pass your headsets to the deer...
Given that the deer is standing next to a big tree, the analogy of "deer in headlights" is kind of pointless if the deer continues to stand next to the tree. What we really need here is Bambi vs. Godzilla.
Bambi Meets Godzilla
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXCUBVS4kfQ
No wildlife necessary - this was the Bearded One's doing, his way of partially smothering the fire to prepare for the "coordinated" statement of global finance minister manipulation surely to come within 2 months. He wouldn't want the S&P at 1475 beforehand, but perhaps 3 months afterward.
Unlike Greenspan, Bernanke hates to pop bubbles, so instead he lets a bit of air rudely leave the balloon, whoopee cushion style, attracting attention with a loud, ripe raspberry, then he rubs it on his underdeveloped, academic chest so it'll stick high on his office wall, where he can watch it closely, safely out of the reach of his children (aka us).
Look closely, that's not a 'deer in headlights', but a deer with, literally, "head lights", and rather blinding ones, preparing to creep into your gardens at 2 a.m., freak out your Rottweilers and munch off the tops of your tomato plants.
Again, it's all Asia. They sell first, especially commodities getting dumped, it will 100% spill over to our markets. This American/Euro-centric trade mentally (they are nuts anyway) will have you done in dusted.
The funniest thing is when the ECB came in and did their thing again with the Spanish auction. Europe/Spain rallied (then sold off) in it's crazed manner. Totally 100% oblivious that the world bailout engine (China/Asia) is crashing in realtime. No more EUR buyups and Italian and Spanish debt sell-to-the-Asians hustles.
Also indicates that the ECB is becoming irrelevant re: market movements. That would leave the last great print engine: The Fed. Bernanke must be sweating that bald head.
I shouldn't say anything about buying UVXY yesterday but I can't help myself. +21.54% today. But I got lucky and I must get rid of it or I may be just as unlucky tomorrow. Nonetheless a good single day. If you gamble away enough money you get lucky once and a while before the money is gone. But that is why I use a modified Martingale system over time as well. I'm going to feel guilty going into 711 to get my chew tonight.
lol
Brazil and China now connected at the hip via the inflation/stagflation takedown.
--Brazil, China to use central banks to maintain trade flows amid ongoing crisis
--Currency swap deal first step in financial cooperation between BRIC countries
--Bilateral deal could provide "infinite" boost to Brazil, China trade