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The Definitive Visual Greek Election Tracker
Ignore the media spin of sampling error as definitive confirmation of this or that (because a 1% difference in exit poll terms is well within a 3% error sampling distribution, where a plurality lead incidentally gives the winner an automatic 50 seats), and follow the results for yourself as they come streaming in. Full visual real-time update below.
In case the above link was Zero Hedged and is out of commission, here is another one, straight from the Greek Interior Ministry:
Finally throwing a monkey wrench in all coalition creation plans is the following:
- Pasok's Diamantopoulou announces it would not join coalition government with ND if Syriza is not in
Needless to say, Syriza would not join in a coalition whose core premise is everything Syria strives to abolish.
And while all that is happening, the head of the Greek Golden Dawn party has already issued a statement:
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Thrilling
Is it crazy to be sitting at my house in the middle of a summer afternoon to watch the election results for a small European country? Wait a minute, is it even more silly to think that the whole monetary union is threatened by the same? It seems to be what they want me to think. Now I don't know if I am being astute or puddy in their hands...
there are 300 seats
the plurality winner gets 50
so let's see about the other 250, ok?
if a party gets 30% that would be: 75 seats, just math-wise; 75+50 =125 so that means 26 short of power, where p= 151 votes
at 40% you might take the place over by yer own party + nobody
gPap will have voters cross to nudie from pasok and the vote-counters may also cooperate a bit; V-man only inspired heavyweights and not enuf young voters qualify
but it ain't over yet, and if it's close it may take a month or more to award those 50 seats; who knows?
Without a majority government it's only a matter of time and Greece will be forced out of the Euro. It's not going to cause the Euro to collapse though. Government and banks will do what they have to in order to get what they want.
In order for capitalists to profit, they need to buy low and sell high. But market prices are fair in Europe so what to do? Create artificial crisis and put mass populations in poverty to get them hungry for work again. Then buy labor cheap and enslave them.
looks like greeks and spaniards are the target. European royalty says, accept this chinese slave labor wage or else!
Europeans first should get rid of their royalty.
before any austerity bull shit on the commons.
A divided parlement is a bullish parlement!
Greeks are funny people, they want all the good but not the bad. They want to stay in the euro but pay their taxes in drachmas... Or just don't pay them at all but still receive full state benifits plus blindness nenifits...
You should actually explain how small european countries can function with a fragmented parliament and if necessary WITHOUT a government.
The whole thing is rigged so that nobody really wins and power remains with the borderless Scam Phantoms who don't have the guts to show their ugly mugs but quietly collect the money while everybody else is squabbling about an election outcome and its imaginary power.
Nothing but a ruse, a distraction, and an absolute fraud in every way. Rinse, repeat.
They don't want you to think at all...
Nope. The results were already in on Friday.
Whats the feeling for the futures opening? EUR and S&P up?
eurusd was down about 20 pips from friday now i see it up about 30 pips.
Unless the results change, we should get a rip into Tuesday's session at the least. This is a remarkable set-up if ND wins.
Yeah and last Sunday I went to bed with futures up 1.5%. How'd that work out?
This feels like a "Buy the sizzle, sell the steak!" situation. Markets were too bubbly for my comfort last week in anticipation of decreased uncertainty from election and QE frontrunning so I'm expecting a repeat of last Monday with initial exuberance open followed by massive selling.
right, per this view: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/overnight-sentiment-calm-storm-surprise-tw...
Ahhh, just like in America, 1/2 the people voting to get the other 1/2's dough.
No, America is more like half the people being covinced to vote to give the wealth of the 99.9% to the 0.1%
Yawn. SSDD :o/
Time for secession from a few parts of Greece.
Is this an online Diebold ...if yes then hardluck Syriza
In other news...
http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?id=n280813
French President Francois Hollande's Socialists have won an absolute majority in Sunday's run-off parliamentary election, AFP reported.
Merkel will soon be very very mad.
dGaulle will be madder.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/27/De_Gaulle-OWI.jpg
speaking of the French...here's a picture of Mittens protesting in favor of the Vietnam War shortly before fleeing to France to hang out with Vietnamese expats.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ya87CJPKg-M/T8YeuggqEQI/AAAAAAAAOYk/c7GaEnXoqD...
I know all about Mittens being a draft dodger WHILE being pro-war in Vietnam... the guy is a total piece of shit coward...
While totally unafraid the other pulls the drone trigger from the cushy Pennsylvania ave. couch. What a choice.
I choose C.)
agreed.
Looks like he's wearing no socks. See, he's brave, risking a blister on his heel like that.
Time to storm ze Maginot Line again!
The link doesn't work? Found another link: http://ekloges.ypes.gr/v2012b/public/index.html?lang=en#{"cls":"main","params":{}}
Who counts the votes in Greece?
Stalin.
Tell the people to go long Syriza , buy buy buy ...
I know, I know, I know.
bernake?
The guy who formally counted the inventory at fort knox...
Van Roumpoy and Barroso
Diebold. It was already determined that ND would win and by how much, the whole thing is a sham. The Greeks are being played and manipulated in order to save the banksters, there are people that still believe the Greeks should take the austerity and pay for the bankers bad bets! Insanity, I hope that somehow Syrizia can somehow pull it off and lead Greece away from the Euro and back into freedom and ultimately growth!
I really do hope that the Greeks do not make the same mistake as the Irish who will pay for bankster bailouts for generations and generations. Eventually the Irish will rise up once they figure out what really happened and is happening, Spain is just the beginning. The scare tactics are oviously effective, let's hope the Greeks understand that's all they are and don't give in to their bllshit lies.
I wish them luck in whatever happens, keeping fingers crossed that they shove it up the Eurocrats assbefore the end of the day and elect Syrizia. The Pasok party are the scum that put Greece where it is but now they've seen the light and are backing Syrizia - this is great if its real!
Are you currently in Greece monitoring the elections and discovering some irregularities, or are you just an asshole?
By the way, the Irish just had a referendum. Do you have any idea about what and how it came out?
"Are you currently in Greece monitoring the elections and discovering some irregularities, or are you just an asshole?"
He is one of the conspiracist rumor-mongers, who, from behind his keyboard, thinks that the rest of the world is just as fucked like the US of A.
Paper ballots in greece and the counting is done in a very distributed and transparent way, each election district is responsible for its own counting, any parties who have candidates in that election send representatives, and overall vote counting is an affair in relatively local hands.
Corrupting an individual polling station's count might not be too difficult for a well organized local effort to compromise all the people involved there, but doing this on any meaningful scale is going to be very difficult and show up in the disparity between exit polls and vote counts immediately. You would be surprised how strong the general feeling in the public is about some things, given the condition of the country. The concept of legitimacy is still very strong in greece. By this i mean the idea that some things are public affairs and must be decided legitimately in a public way. If there was a publicly legitimate blessing (not just a widespread sentiment) about rounding up every politician and putting him in prison, the army would be out there doing it ten minutes later. But at the moment, there is still not a perception through the country that it would be a legitimate move. Perhaps i'm not doing a good job explaining this, but i get the impression that ingreece, compared to other countries i've gotten to know, the importance of the blessing of the public - not the possession of force and not even the letter of the law, since the law itself can fail to get the peoples' blessing - is a stronger factor in greek society than elsewhere in the west i have seen.
As a contrasting example, in the US, there is a great deal of attention paid to the letter of the law, both by those in power and those in protest. People there are indignant about laws being broken and seek to construct technically precise legal justifications for or against some action. In greece this is not sufficient in the society, for a mandate to rule. Nor is breaking some laws automatically going to revoke the mandate. The importance placed on a legitimate process for the giving or revocation of the mandate is very strong in greek society.the concept that it does really come from the people and nowhere else is also still a very strong one in the society.
And so, so far, while it might surprise people further west, where diebold voting for you is rammed down peoples throats wrapped in a sheet of 'technically not illegal' or some such thing, in greece vote counting is pretty free from tampering.
People in greece _are_ across the country very angry that the mechanisms they are familiar with dont seem to be working properly anymore (no shit), but they have a much higher threshold of tolerance before they will abandon the mechanism currently seen as legitimate, than in a lot of other places.
From another point of view, though, all of this is less important these days than who controls the media, let's not forget.
excellent remarks - thanks.
That one keeps timing out on me :( Here is another tracker from the Ministry of Interior http://ekloges.ypes.gr/v2012b/public/index.html?lang=en#{%22cls%22:%22main%22,%22params%22:{}}
Use the "Preview" button right next to teh "Save" button. Then, you have the option to edit your post before saving.
Regards,
Cooter
There are rumours of a 5 point swing for the leftists from those that voted late. so its a dead heat
And Spain says no thanks to IMF
SPAIN will not immediately implement the International Monetary Fund's latest recommendations, which include cutting government workers' wages further, because they are nonbinding, the prime minister said on Saturday. The IMF is one of three bodies Mariano Rajoy's government turned to assess Spain's banking sector ahead of a 100 billion-euro (US$125 billion) bailout for failing lenders. The latest IMF document, released on Friday, was critical of how the country had missed its deficit reduction target in 2011, despite insisting "until almost the end of the year that the deficit was on track."
And people... there's only about 15-20% of vote results in... so it's not over yet... not by a long shot.
Am short ND, currently up 12%
In holy crap news...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9336170/US-en...
US enlists Britain's help to stop ship 'carrying Russian attack helicopters' to Syria The US government has enlisted Britain's help in a bid to stop a ship suspected of carrying Russian attack helicopters and missiles to conflict-riven Syria, The Sunday Telegraph can reveal.Yeah let's do that... Cuban missile crisis numero dos...
This ain't your daddy's Cuban Missle Crisis....Putin ain't playin'.....
US backtracks on claims Russia is arming Syrian regime. State department acknowledges Damascus already owned attack helicopters, cited by Hillary Clinton as escalating violence
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/15/us-backtracks-russia-syrian-...
Egypt elections?
Egypt's ruling military council is to stay in control of legislation and the budget in the absence of a parliament, even as the country prepares to announce a new president, military sources told AFP on Sunday. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which took power when president Hosni Mubarak was ousted in an uprising last year, is set to issue an amended constitutional declaration, consolidating its powers just hours before Egypt wraps up a divisive presidential election to pick Mubarak's successor.
Yemen election? 'Middle Eastern press praises Yemen's single-candidate election"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17111755
Mubarak appointed judges saying the election was unconstitutional was total bullshit. The military is staging a coup and it's obvious to everybody.
The ``elected president`` comes to ``power`` on July 1.
Which is more bullshit...
The Millitary (many alligned with Mubarak, but many also eventually sided with the rebels) staging a coup or...
The Muslim Brotherhood running candidates under 3rd party auspicious and then intergrating them into their parlimentary majority and saying they wouldn't run a candidate for president and then doing it?
Hint both are utter and total BS and the country is GUARANTEED a second revolution.
http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog/2011/feb/05/washingtons-secret-hist...
Fuck them, they all should be lynched and Mubarak
Clearly, the best way to avoid divisiveness and bad feelings all around is with the single candidate election system. Everyone should change to such an efficient, fair and honest system.
"More on that new poll. The Greece interior ministry has put New Democracy on 31.1% and Syriza on 25.4% after 15% of the votes counted. A caveat however - results are more likely skewed to the right because rural areas go first. Athens is likely to push this again towards the left. "
From Guardian.co.uk
Note Greece is 80% urban and 28% Athens. These haven't started counting yet.
Furthermore, the surge in late voting is URBAN and YOUNG, and favors Syrza. Thus the predictions of a Syriza 0.5% win. Those are based on exit polls and weighted according to turnout - instead of weighted by who counts 1st. Expect a Syriza run into the night.
At the end - their will be a recount no matter who wins by 0.5%. The extra 50 seats GUARANTEE it. Stupid rule BTW.
What would you propose instead of the bonus seat system? For one party to have 30 percent of the seats, and form a coalition minority government with ~40% of the seats?
when will they count Athens?! It's rigged ... just watch the Refresh
Yup ND is currently down 14% and Syriza is up by 12%, am keeping my positions
Short ND, long SYZ
Why on earth would anyone speculate on this election? The whole world is already "all in".
"Greek Pro-Bailout Parties Seen Taking Majority, Poll Shows"
from Bloomberg ....
TPTB is all in ... Keeping the "Flow"
Look at that Nazi's @ 7%
Nazis? I hate Illinios Nazis...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ukFAvYP3UU
Regards,
Cooter
PASOK: "We want SYRIZA to support the new Gov by ND or else we won't support it either"
hmmmmm....
Mwahahahahahaaha!!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9336591/Greek-electi...
AFP reports that Germany is ready to discuss giving Greece more time to carry out reform.
Another bailout coming! Germans get fucked again... and they will still vote for the pro-EU parties and believe Merkel is on their side!!! Are Germans that stupid?
Germany isn't going to get it monetarily any worse than the rest. They need to stack and the control print button gives you both time and gold. Every nation is moving to gold so they aren't DOA upon collapse of faith. Then the Germans get it from their neighbors. Or vice versa.
Greeks are smart. Why would they not take free money especially when not taking it means austerity and hardship. Take the free money now and until it stops coming...you can always default in the future at a point where it will be far worse on everyone.
for the n'th time, these are not bailout for greece or any other country! the text should read 'with some previously announced deadlines approaching, germany is ready to bail out its banks exposed to greece irrespective of those deadlines'
the sheer brilliance of routing these bailouts through various weak countries' debt loop and putting the other countries on the hook for your bailouts is genius.. right up until it just doesnt work anymore. The patient is near dead already.
I see the problem. The guy talks gibberish for 2:20 minutes and only says 80 words. Language overhead has taxed their productivity out of competitiveness.
Astute observation.
the subtitles skipped a lot. there was the part about Merkel needed to go screw herself. and the part about the media being total scripted months in advance. oh, and the part about all party loyals are going to get rich very soon...
None of this means SH*T, just another day in paradise...kickin' the can on down the road.
...doing GOD's work...GS-DickinDaMuppets
29.58% in - up from 17.9%
ND 30.61% down from 31.02%
Syriza 25.83% up from 25.47%
If I do RAW EXTRAPOLATION I get 28.55% to 27.65%, and me thinks it continues to skew Syriza.
Syriza is not picking up enough votes in highly populated areas around Athens. No way they can make up the gap without more stonghold areas.And they do not have any more with significant votes.
I'm calling this for ND. Count on it.
Sounds like civil war's around August' corner. Hot Hot Summer... then please sit on banksters' debts.
cant wait to see the action once markets opens, this is best entertaining fathers day yet!
Dude, I second that emotion.
Most fun you can have with your pants on.
G
Stay liquid my friends...
Now this, is chaos :o)
not chaos, Kairos !
I recommend you see Europe before the war.
The Greeks deserve everything that's coming to them if they let the "new deomcracy" win.
Crawldaddy : we had this discussion earlier. What do you feel on this apparently final issue?
Lets hear it from the horse's mouth !
huh?
I honestly don't think Greek elections are key to where the market will be in 3 weeks.
Greeks should default. Never understood why that means they have to leave the Euro. Just say we aren't paying the debt. Can't run a budget or trade deficit if no one will lend to you. Personally I think government debt should be banned.
But what matters to the markets is Spain. I've put my predictions out there on ZH. Yeilds go to 8%-10% over coming weeks as investors anticipate bank bailout to be E200bbn+ = more collateral seizures. That forces Spain to ask for a deficit bailout and a spiral of yeilds into the 20s (ala Greece).
But the ESFS and ESM can handle Spain, so in reallity it comes down to eiather Italy or France. One of them has to show material weakness - or Germany has to blink. That's when we get armmageddon - not tomorrow.
r u crawldaddy?
Must be my narccicism. I couldve sworn this said RK. But yoi are right. Sorry for my unsolicited oppinion.
No prob. BTW Golden Porn lost a huge part of his hard on; something like 5 inches! Wowie...some retraction!
Come on, even my dog has worked out that the New(old) Democracy party is going to win the election, the Greeks will ask to stay in the euro as long as they don't have to pay back any of their debts, and there'll be more riots in the streets for a myriad of reasons. Same old stunt they've pulled during the past 48 months until the ECB says no thanks you're out. Grexit may not be priced in the markets, but it looks like preparations throughout the EU and beyond have been announced in the past week by the central bankers. When is Grexit? Don't ask me, to paraphrase my mug - you don't have to be crazy to come to these conclusions, but it helps.
Jacque Fresco has developed futurist concepts. Regretfully, he doesn’t have a pot to piss in transforming his dreams to reality. The EU has gone tits up financially, so has Mr. Fresco dreams in subsidizing the union taxpayers NEW ECO centres.
The Venus Project
Who would of thought a new age society futurist failed over the loss of capital funding thru government taxpayer backing? LOL
with so much electoral tension in Greece I thought it might be
fitting to have two campaign heavyweights weigh in on the
voting action. Herman Cain's Mark Block and the ineffable Sharon Stone at large...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtv6HA7dd70 (17 seconds of your life)
The official projection figures for the election have now been announced by Greece's interior ministry. Greek pollster, Marika Lambrou, said this:
There will be seven parties in the next parliament, as was the case on 6 May. There will be no upset in the order of the parties but there has been a "considerable increase" in the number of votes for the two leading parties.
Lambrou said that the figures were unlikely to change but there would be continual flow of results as they arrive.
BTW the above is ABOUT where my math comes out... Although -0.5% for ND +0.5% for Syriza and -1.0% for Pasok isn't meaningless. Puts ND+Pasok very close to that 40% level.
Graph Now Projected ND 31.02% 30.45% 28.92% Syriza 25.47% 26.04% 27.57% PASOK 13.46% 12.85% 11.21% Counted 17.93% 40.22% 100.00% ND+P 44.48% 43.30% 40.14%Where's that good ol' 300 spirit you weasly Greeks? I guess there is no spartan blood left in your veins.
Here is what you need to do to the next EU envoy (banker) sent to Greece:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZeYVIWz99I
In a separate story
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/super-typhoon-sets-aim-at-japa/66638
Should be an interesting week!
All the economic problems are over! Jeeeeppppiiiiii!!!
State benifits for everybody!!
....
Oh wait......
Chicago Tribune reporting that Obama has pulled an impressive 94% with over 99% of the precincts repor, oh crap, they posted the Nov 7th Illinois results instead of Greece.
You haven't lived until you've had your vote stolen in an election in Chicago. (I'm sorry, but you've already voted. / But, but...)
Greeks decide on slow death versus quick death with potential for rebound faster.
Good luck Greeks. And thanks for fuckin it up for the rest of us.
All right - calling it a night. ND wins by 200bps - 29.0%-29.5% vs 27.0%-27.5%. Won't even be a recount. Rally on!
that's good, right?
<--------------- thread killer
Watchinng New Democracies speech live now....its bloody hiralious
Monday - Green followed by realization that ND victory even if not enough to run the place obviates need for "coordinated global central bank" printing and so time to sell off. Red or even by end of Monday in US equities. Then useless G-20 meeting followed by "no change" FOMC meeting.
Muddle through continues.
Interesting.
From Krugman:
"
Joe Wiesenthal tells us that there’s a meme in Greece to the effect that Syriza didn’t really want to win, because it would rather see the current government flail some more. Conversely, establishment types should actually be dismayed by this outcome: if current policies fail completely, which seems almost a given, and Greece exits the euro anyway, which seems highly likely, the entire Greek center will end up discredited; better, in a way, to be able to blame the radicals.
And I gather I’m not the only one thinking along these lines; Business Insider also reports hints that Pasok, which has suffered terribly from its identification with failing policies, might not continue in the coalition unless Syriza is also brought on board — which then raises the question, why would Syriza do that?"
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/
Meanwhile the IMF tells Ireland austerity policies didn't work, too bad!
Seems the IMF recognizes Ireland is going down anyway (!!!)
Interesting.
From Krugman:
"
Joe Wiesenthal tells us that there’s a meme in Greece to the effect that Syriza didn’t really want to win, because it would rather see the current government flail some more. Conversely, establishment types should actually be dismayed by this outcome: if current policies fail completely, which seems almost a given, and Greece exits the euro anyway, which seems highly likely, the entire Greek center will end up discredited; better, in a way, to be able to blame the radicals.
And I gather I’m not the only one thinking along these lines; Business Insider also reports hints that Pasok, which has suffered terribly from its identification with failing policies, might not continue in the coalition unless Syriza is also brought on board — which then raises the question, why would Syriza do that?"
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/
Meanwhile the IMF tells Ireland austerity policies didn't work, too bad!
Seems the IMF recognizes Ireland is going down anyway (!!!)
Love this game of "Whack-A-Mole." Gets more exciting as it speeds up....
So the Cretins are socialists. And cretins.
Did the world end yet?
there's still egypt & french election fallout to go.... lest Syria isn't in the news enough
New Democracy has won already.
New Democracy 29.2 %
Syriza 27.4%
This is how it will end I think. No possible coalition in sight.
Golden Dawn held on to the same 7% as previously.
Scary shit, when that large a percentage of the population votes for straight out nazis.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-germans-have-learned-noth...
History rhymes - "Anti-system" parties in Germany won 13 percent of votes in 1928. In 1932, they won nearly 60 percent.
I should have gone long wd-40 on friday. The Greeks are about to collectively fuck themselves up the ass.
Only number to watch in this stupid election now IMO is 180. 180 gives a 60% majority in Parliament. It's important according to the Constitution (but who refers to that piece of toilet paper anyway?).
Right now, ND + PASOK + DIMAR = 179.
...and tomorrow the losers will give their keys to the winners and the looting will continue with renewed vigor.
Rally warning continues...
SPX bullish daily chart strengthened further on Friday & more rally expected.
DOW initial target approx 13,170 & more upside after that.
MORE:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis
People should not be so dismissive of anyone the Muppet-press calls "fascist". You don't want only the Lweft to be on the correct side of history.
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