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Deja Deja Deja Etc. As S&P 500 Closes Below 50DMA First Time Since November
It happened again. Just like the last five days in a row - post-Europe close euphoria gives way to oops-Europe-will-open-tomorrow-reality dysphoria. The S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) closed below their 50DMA for the first since November today as it has dropped 7 of the last 9 days. Financials were a disaster (-2%) as the reality of a levered bet on the Bernanke Put and economic growth are unwound on a total and utter lack of trust (back below 100DMA again) and as we noted BofA is starting to converge back with its peers (and broadly financial stocks with their CDS). With JPM back below $36 and its 200DMA and AAPL testing its pre-earnings lows, markets are hotting up and Treasuries were bid all the way to the close with the long-end down 6-7bps today alone (10Y with a 1.77% handle). IG and HY credit underperformed stocks on the day as the JPM overhang continues to pressure the indices - though the skew is collapsing fast. VIX jumped to its highest close in 4 months at 21.87%. IG9 10Y jumped over 8bps more today to 147bps mid, now 30bps from its 5/1 swing low spead. The USD rose further and EURUSD dropped back below 1.29 for the first time in 4 months but perhaps AUD losing pairty with the USD was the bigger news - back to 5 month lows.
ES rips and dips for the sixth day in a row...
and closes below its 50DMA (light blue) for the first time since November...
the red rectangle is the shift last year that drive the Fed and ECB to print.
Financials dropped their most in a month with BofA starting to converge back to reality and Morgan Stanley dropping fast.
JPM lost its 200DMA and closed under $36 for th first since mid January as we note that IG9 10Y widened another 8bps or so (as wide as 149bps offered) and just as we warned HY18 is getting dragged into the fray trading under $94 as IG18 is now +12bps from Thursday's close at 114.5bps! HYG has also collapsed under this realization - as it was a cheap liquid hedge...
And Treasury yields drop back to 7 month lows and a spectacularly awful 1.77 handle!
Chart: Bloomberg
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Surely that's the prompt for hitting the PRINT button.
Sure it is starting to look like the deflation spyral rearing its ugly head.
but, but, groupon .........
You should be fine. We can make up all the production shortfall from FaceBook. Thumbs Up.
I am not winning, but I am sure getting an education.
Here comes 200MA?
This is , like , deja poo poo. All over again, into a big fan. Reminds me of a book I read a long time ago. Brown Spots On Wall. By : Woo Flung Pu.
I think that book was the prequel to the one that we have been getting in serialized fashion here on ZeroHedge lately: "Brown Piles on the Roadside:
How Chinese Citizenism Gave Me the Runs", by An Un An Us.
Uhmmmmmm, no
Papa Ben will be keeping his powder dry for when the REAL trouble starts. This is just drums sounding at a distance.
There is no point in the Fed or ECB doing anything until Greece, Germany and China show their hands. Everyone else (France, Spain, etc) are just spectators at the rail.
So far, no one has gone "All In" even though Greece is the short stack and has nothing to lose by doing so.
barliman
Reality sucks.
REALITY is their ILLUSION
Their FICTION is the REALITY
ok, stocks are crashing which is just a little surprising since they went up for no reason.
But still nothing on the gold crash (which accelerates further every day) and the 10Y bond rally (in the US and in Germany).
I prefer to not call it a gold crash but:
"Come to papa!"
Half-full, half-empty ... for now it's emptying.
... aka "back up the truck" aka "buying opportunity"
Deflation concerns.
temporary dollar strength, duh.
temporary? the euro will rebound? ... or die
Sportsfans, open your eyes.
There is no growth. The illusion of growth this past winter that drove the markets was worldwide record warm weather that departed from all seasonal adjustments that are history based.
If you get record setting warmth, historical adjustments are going to fail.
Now we return to normality and presto, the data erodes.
No growth is deflation. There isn't enough oil coming out of the ground fast enough to have growth and that's that. Nothing can be done about this.
Deflation is the compelling reality of 1.77% 10 year paper. If you hold it all the way to -2%, you'll make a lot of money.
The water recedes before every tsunami.
Have fun gathering up (paper) fishes in the (very) temporary shallow water.
fishes?
[met-uh-fawr, -fer] Show IPA noun
1.a figure of speech in which a term or phrase is applied to something to which it is not literally applicable in order to suggest a resemblance, as in “A mighty fortress is our God.” Compare mixed metaphor, simile ( def. 1 ) .
2.something used, or regarded as being used, to represent something else; emblem; symbol.
Too early for tsunamis. Wait for the biggie... you'll feel that M 9.5 as both Wall St. & The Square Mile will shake simultaneously.
When gold crashes you're supposed to buy more, average out those losses. Don't sell
I've said it over and over to all those screming prophecies about the dollar...it will be the last fiat currency standing at the end. There is too much inertia, too much history, too much institutional international use for the dollar to fade into nothing. Paradoxically, i see the dollar strengthening during the rush to leave the yen and the Euro. Of course it is doomed but it's all in the timing. An inevitability is not necessarily predictable.
I have gone 75% cash and doubled my puts. Anyone trading without hedging with puts or sold calls is nuts.
100 Day no?
Yes I believe the close was below the 100-day rather than the 50-day. Even VWAP was below the 100-day.
yeah, he fucked up
That threw me off too. It must be the 100 Day he meant.
Great that Seekling Alpha fact checks: http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/315741
.
Ctrl P quick! The election depends on it.
No pressure or anything.
Tell it to this character... :>D
The powers will not let this down trend stand for much longer. Central planning panic will happen soon and this time I am jumping on the band wagon even though it will only last a few hours mybe days.
EURUSD short looks good till 12650 for anyone playing that. That should also coincide with stocks reaching their drastic 1300 or so SPX moment until further bullish rhetoric from the central banks come out signalling further easings.
Dood.
The S&P opened the year at 1257. When we get to 1257 it will mean nothing has happened.
As for easing, the Fed won't risk its independence. They won't move til after the election, and at that point the debt ceiling and overall fiscal cliff looming 1 Jan could be an obstacle.
The Fed has no reason to ease. Easing so far hasn't worked. Besides which, they ease to hold rates down. At 1.77% on the 10 year, it needs no help.
The fed has every reason to ease. If CNBS is screaming for retail to get in for months now what will they have to do when we are down 25% for the year in July? That money will never ever come back and whatever is there now will be gone too. The game will be over.
I don't think their independence will be in question either because a few more weeks like this and everyone (almost) will be begging and pleading for them to get involved. They will be blamed if they don't.
But why? Bond yields are falling and that's the reason the Fed buys bonds, to drive the price up and the yield down.
They are already getting that.
I think another problem they have to deal with may be their real owners, e.g. the shadow government criminal banking cartel known as Wall Street is fundamentally insolvent and their business model is unsustainable unless prices are asset prices are steadily rising.
I hear you but they want it all. Yields low but the market has to maintain the illusion that the economy is recovering. Take away people's sense of wealth and they stop spending.
PPT blew their load way too early today. Wheres Brian Sack when you need him?
Looks like its time for some new algos.
Gold looks sick better pile into US/DE Treasuries quickly I'll be safe there.
/sarc off
Place your bets and hold your balls. Thanks to all those wonderful politicians and bankers that have made this moment possible. I am SURE everything will be fine at the end.
/sarc on
I think most people still in the gold market hold their investment as insurance. I will buy physical if the price goes down much more - my sense is there will be debt deflation followed by really desperate money printing (Gold down....then wayyyyyyyyy up). Depends on your investing time line.
-NasdaqGS
11.63 1.73(17.47%) 4:00PM EDT|After Hours: 12.95 1.32 (11.35%) 4:13PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
ALGO on
Yay Groupon has come to save us! What was the short interest on this POS, that some huge short suqeeeze. really on a 1cent beat? ! lol!
lol The market will rally on Groupon
+2% Greenshoots tomorrow
Really up 18% on the day session before release, nooo not insider trading, Couldnt be that someone got the info in advance. Stocks just squeeze liek this normally. Nothign to see here move along.
Riding the wave until FB IPO.
After that comes the crash
The company reported a first-quarter loss of 2 cents a share, or $11.7 million, on sales of $559.3 million. (expectations were for a 4 cent loss).
Gee....a swing of $11 million bottom line on revenue of $560 million. Eutopia!!!!
If there is an accountant who could not come up with some estimates/accruals to achieve that I would be shocked.
Maybe Facebook will buy them in an all stock transaction...
If they pring now, the effects won't last 'till the election. QE2/3 only lasted a few months last time, and they know the new QE will last a lot less time now. They have to wait so QE effects still evident in November but not "let" everything completely crash - it's a balancing act, but I suspect they have to wait longer still.
What do you think?
Maybe they do not need to print....just continue to ease credit so all the dull witted trailer park trash and eager new immigrants can buy stuff and eat out to their hearts content. Easing credit has an almost instant effect (just think how quickly a guy pushing a shopping cart would run up a shiny new Visa card).
Since banks don't have to mark to market, they can hide the bad debt for a long time.
Winter is Coming...
Audit --- Expose --- End it
The financials may suck but it is a bull market compared to the miners.
Nice set up to buy though....at some point.
maybe....but it's death if you already own em. At least it's a quick death at this pace....
I'll be an equities buyer at S&P 500 at 100. Shouldn't be much longer now.
I meant buying opportunity for mining stocks....only day traders should be going long on S&P!!
that's just a minor problem
Alles geht in die Hose.
Volldampf Scheisse voraus.
This is very odd behaviour...perhaps there is more going on behind the scenes? Are the insiders cashing out? Is Buffett selling BAC?
Jim Rogers on now. Interesting insights. JPM is selling their commodities and that is driving them down. He seems to contradict himself saying that he owns the dollar because everyone hates it and it is an awful currency to own. In the next sentence he says the dollar is a safe haven (percieved) and thats why he owns it. Does not make sense.
Cluelessness is at all time highs, which is the catalyst for the doublespeak from Rogers, Faber, etc.
El Fin.
he said he is short JPM and another large US Bank. He also is encouraging Bartiroma to learn to drive a tractor. I'd rather she stand in front of one.
Agreed.
Listening to them talk I have a hard time believing they have much if anything truly at risk in the markets. I think they both have physical, darkest blue chips, lots of cash, and hedges out the ass. Just my opinion
Jim Rogers today on CNBC
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000090221
Anyone know how long he's been pushing the farming idea? I can remembering hearing it at least since the middle of last year...
"Beating expectations" all the way down...
To the banks I say: physician heal thyself.
To the banks I say: Vampire, wooden stake thyself.
So, tomorrow....are we to expect a short squeeze rally on some rumor? It's been a while since China has made some sort of empty, self-serving commitment to invest in western fiat-based derivative products.
Oh wait...I forgot....China has lent all it's reserves to crooked property speculators, state enterprises and political insiders (those may all be the same).
JPM: Too Big, Too Frail
"It's priced in" meets "it's not gonna happen."
"It can't happen here" meets "The federal government will protect/save us!"
Crash motherfucker, FUCK YOU BERNANKE!!!
FZA is prob good for a 20%+ pop over the next 6 weeks. Then QE3 and all bets reset. Looks like it's Facebook and Festivus for the restofus.
If the “Wall of Worry” truly existed (of which I’m skeptical), than presumably the same effects could work in reverse. Are the big reversals a sign that a “Wall of Optimism” is now present? Have investors become so optimistic about a virtuous cycle in the US, smooth resolution in Europe and soft-landing in China that all dips must be bought regardless of how much news contradicts those presumptions?
http://bubblesandbusts.blogspot.com/2012/05/wall-of-optimism.html
The emini S&P 500 closed leaning on its lower Bollinger Band line, now at 1331.25. This could be a very ominous sign of forthcoming immediate downside acceleration into a capitulation-liquidation phase (fulfilling the downside potential off the rebounded top formation that emerged from Feb to early May).
Typically, a capitulatory move beneath the lower Bollinger Band line presses 1-3% beneath the line prior to initiating a powerful snap-back oversold rally. If such a scenario were to unfold now, then the e-SPM could spike down to 1318 at a minimum and to 1291 at a maximum prior to creating extreme near-term "sling-shot" rally conditions.
Of course, a break of a round number like 1300 might increase the clarion call for more QE, which in and of itself will be a period fraught with additional risks.
Bottom line: The e-SPM closed the session in a very ominous position. In the absence of a Turnaround Tuesday session (tomorrow) that propels the index above 1345, my intermediate-term work suggests that the index is vulnerable to potentially acute selling pressure.
e-SPM chart.
Strange, you speak as if there's a market.
And the primary elliott wave count for the SP500 continues bearish.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-daily-14-2012/
Ahhh just BTFD and relax - own Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan and Apple. There will be new highs by Christmas - 2032.
The real deal is the 30yr. T moved to 2.95%! Short rates went up! The whole yield curve is moving towards inversion? Inversion hasn't happened in so many years I have forgotten the last time? Sometime in 2000 right? Printing only increases the steepness of the inversion. I think the Fed is trapped now?
More Technical Analysis --
Tom Demark's Setup/Sequential system reached a significant Sell milestone on May 1st:
S&P 500 Reaches Demark Sell Signals on 3 TimeframesWhy the fuck do you want gold to go up??? i just want to accumulate. I'm not a millionare anymore so if we can get the fucking price down I can actually afford it....
anything under $1,400 would be be appreciated.
There's always Argentum for sale as well (around $28/Toz)
gold is coming near its 100-Weekly MA and the swing low at 1519..think that might be a buy
I think this is just a trivial error, but you are talking about the 100-DMA i think