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Deja Deja Deja Etc. As S&P 500 Closes Below 50DMA First Time Since November

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It happened again. Just like the last five days in a row - post-Europe close euphoria gives way to oops-Europe-will-open-tomorrow-reality dysphoria. The S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) closed below their 50DMA for the first since November today as it has dropped 7 of the last 9 days. Financials were a disaster (-2%) as the reality of a levered bet on the Bernanke Put and economic growth are unwound on a total and utter lack of trust (back below 100DMA again) and as we noted BofA is starting to converge back with its peers (and broadly financial stocks with their CDS). With JPM back below $36 and its 200DMA and AAPL testing its pre-earnings lows, markets are hotting up and Treasuries were bid all the way to the close with the long-end down 6-7bps today alone (10Y with a 1.77% handle). IG and HY credit underperformed stocks on the day as the JPM overhang continues to pressure the indices - though the skew is collapsing fast. VIX jumped to its highest close in 4 months at 21.87%. IG9 10Y jumped over 8bps more today to 147bps mid, now 30bps from its 5/1 swing low spead. The USD rose further and EURUSD dropped back below 1.29 for the first time in 4 months but perhaps AUD losing pairty with the USD was the bigger news - back to 5 month lows.

ES rips and dips for the sixth day in a row...

and closes below its 50DMA (light blue) for the first time since November...

the red rectangle is the shift last year that drive the Fed and ECB to print.

Financials dropped their most in a month with BofA starting to converge back to reality and Morgan Stanley dropping fast.

JPM lost its 200DMA and closed under $36 for th first since mid January as we note that IG9 10Y widened another 8bps or so (as wide as 149bps offered) and just as we warned HY18 is getting dragged into the fray trading under $94 as IG18 is now +12bps from Thursday's close at 114.5bps! HYG has also collapsed under this realization - as it was a cheap liquid hedge...

And Treasury yields drop back to 7 month lows and a spectacularly awful 1.77 handle!

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:05 | 2424767 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Surely that's the prompt for hitting the PRINT button.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:11 | 2424786 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Sure it is starting to look like the deflation spyral rearing its ugly head.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:17 | 2424819 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

but, but, groupon .........

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:19 | 2424825 xela2200
xela2200's picture

You should be fine. We can make up all the production shortfall from FaceBook. Thumbs Up.

I am not winning, but I am sure getting an education.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:36 | 2424869 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Here comes 200MA?

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:21 | 2424832 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

This is , like , deja poo poo. All over again, into a big fan. Reminds me of a book I read a long time ago. Brown Spots On Wall. By : Woo Flung Pu.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:46 | 2424862 akak
akak's picture

I think that book was the prequel to the one that we have been getting in serialized fashion here on ZeroHedge lately: "Brown Piles on the Roadside:
How Chinese Citizenism Gave Me the Runs", by An Un An Us.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:34 | 2424864 barliman
barliman's picture

 

Uhmmmmmm, no

Papa Ben will be keeping his powder dry for when the REAL trouble starts. This is just drums sounding at a distance.

There is no point in the Fed or ECB doing anything until Greece, Germany and China show their hands. Everyone else (France, Spain, etc) are just spectators at the rail.

So far, no one has gone "All In" even though Greece is the short stack and has nothing to lose by doing so.

barliman

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:06 | 2424768 Ima anal sphincter
Ima anal sphincter's picture

Reality sucks.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:32 | 2424858 BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

REALITY is their ILLUSION

 

 

Their FICTION is the REALITY

 

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:10 | 2424772 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

ok, stocks are crashing which is just a little surprising since they went up for no reason.

But still nothing on the gold crash (which accelerates further every day) and the 10Y bond rally (in the US and in Germany).

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:11 | 2424791 pods
pods's picture

I prefer to not call it a gold crash but:

"Come to papa!"

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:23 | 2424835 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

Half-full, half-empty ... for now it's emptying.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:22 | 2424837 navy62802
navy62802's picture

... aka "back up the truck" aka "buying opportunity"

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:14 | 2424800 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Deflation concerns.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:31 | 2424853 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

temporary dollar strength, duh.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:54 | 2424927 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

temporary? the euro will rebound? ... or die

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 17:18 | 2424999 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Sportsfans, open your eyes.

There is no growth.  The illusion of growth this past winter that drove the markets was worldwide record warm weather that departed from all seasonal adjustments that are history based.

If you get record setting warmth, historical adjustments are going to fail.

Now we return to normality and presto, the data erodes.

No growth is deflation.  There isn't enough oil coming out of the ground fast enough to have growth and that's that.  Nothing can be done about this.

Deflation is the compelling reality of 1.77% 10 year paper.  If you hold it all the way to -2%, you'll make a lot of money.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:42 | 2424878 akak
akak's picture

 

But still nothing on the gold crash (which accelerates further every day) and the 10Y bond rally (in the US and in Germany).

The water recedes before every tsunami.

Have fun gathering up (paper) fishes in the (very) temporary shallow water.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:52 | 2424924 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

fishes?

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 17:13 | 2424970 akak
akak's picture
met·a·phor

[met-uh-fawr, -fer] Show IPA noun

1.a figure of speech in which a term or phrase is applied to something to which it is not literally applicable in order to suggest a resemblance, as in “A mighty fortress is our God.” Compare mixed metaphor, simile ( def. 1 ) .

2.something used, or regarded as being used, to represent something else; emblem; symbol.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 17:24 | 2425009 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

Too early for tsunamis. Wait for the biggie... you'll feel that M 9.5 as both Wall St. & The Square Mile will shake simultaneously.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:41 | 2424881 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

When gold crashes you're supposed to buy more, average out those losses. Don't sell

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 17:19 | 2424997 smb12321
smb12321's picture

  I've said it over and over to all those screming prophecies about the dollar...it will be the last fiat currency standing at the end.  There is too much inertia, too much history, too much institutional international use for the dollar to fade into nothing.  Paradoxically, i see the dollar strengthening during the rush to leave the yen and the Euro.  Of course it is doomed but it's all in the timing. An inevitability is not necessarily predictable.

I have gone 75% cash and doubled my puts.  Anyone trading without hedging with puts or sold calls is nuts.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:07 | 2424774 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

100 Day no?

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:16 | 2424790 Biggvs
Biggvs's picture

Yes I believe the close was below the 100-day rather than the 50-day. Even VWAP was below the 100-day.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:33 | 2424860 5880
5880's picture

yeah, he fucked up

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:32 | 2424798 Danks18
Danks18's picture

That threw me off too.  It must be the 100 Day he meant.

Great that Seekling Alpha fact checks: http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/315741

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:26 | 2424838 duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:09 | 2424775 JailBank
JailBank's picture

Ctrl P quick! The election depends on it.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:15 | 2424807 xela2200
xela2200's picture

No pressure or anything.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:45 | 2425903 StychoKiller
Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:10 | 2424781 nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

The powers will not let this down trend stand for much longer.  Central planning panic will happen soon and this time I am jumping on the band wagon even though it will only last a few hours mybe days.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:11 | 2424784 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

EURUSD short looks good till 12650 for anyone playing that. That should also coincide with stocks reaching their drastic 1300 or so SPX moment until further bullish rhetoric from the central banks come out signalling further easings.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 17:25 | 2425012 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Dood.

The S&P opened the year at 1257.  When we get to 1257 it will mean nothing has happened.

As for easing, the Fed won't risk its independence.  They won't move til after the election, and at that point the debt ceiling and overall fiscal cliff looming 1 Jan could be an obstacle.

The Fed has no reason to ease.  Easing so far hasn't worked.  Besides which, they ease to hold rates down.  At 1.77% on the 10 year, it needs no help.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 17:36 | 2425034 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The fed has every reason to ease. If CNBS is screaming for retail to get in for months now what will they have to do when we are down 25% for the year in July? That money will never ever come back and whatever is there now will be gone too. The game will be over.

I don't think their independence will be in question either because a few more weeks like this and everyone (almost) will be begging and pleading for them to get involved. They will be blamed if they don't.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 18:29 | 2425142 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

But why?  Bond yields are falling and that's the reason the Fed buys bonds, to drive the price up and the yield down.

They are already getting that.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 19:19 | 2425228 ffart
ffart's picture

I think another problem they have to deal with may be their real owners, e.g. the shadow government criminal banking cartel known as Wall Street is fundamentally insolvent and their business model is unsustainable unless prices are asset prices are steadily rising. 

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 19:37 | 2425248 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I hear you but they want it all. Yields low but the market has to maintain the illusion that the economy is recovering. Take away people's sense of wealth and they stop spending.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:11 | 2424789 Conman
Conman's picture

PPT blew their load way too early today. Wheres Brian Sack when you need him?

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:14 | 2424795 Debtless
Debtless's picture

Looks like its time for some new algos.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:14 | 2424796 Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

Gold looks sick better pile into US/DE Treasuries quickly I'll be safe there.

/sarc off

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:18 | 2424818 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Place your bets and hold your balls. Thanks to all those wonderful politicians and bankers that have made this moment possible. I am SURE everything will be fine at the end.

/sarc on

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:28 | 2424848 Mark123
Mark123's picture

I think most people still in the gold market hold their investment as insurance.  I will buy physical if the price goes down much more - my sense is there will be debt deflation followed by really desperate money printing (Gold down....then wayyyyyyyyy up).  Depends on your investing time line.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:13 | 2424802 resurger
resurger's picture
Groupon, Inc. (GRPN)

-NasdaqGS

11.63 1.73(17.47%) 4:00PM EDT|After Hours: 12.95 1.32 (11.35%) 4:13PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price

 

ALGO on

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:31 | 2424857 Conman
Conman's picture

Yay Groupon has come to save us! What was the short interest on this POS, that some huge short suqeeeze. really on a 1cent beat? ! lol!

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:33 | 2424861 resurger
resurger's picture

lol The market will rally on Groupon

+2% Greenshoots tomorrow

 

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:40 | 2424879 Conman
Conman's picture

Really up 18% on the day session before release, nooo not insider trading, Couldnt be that someone got the info in advance. Stocks just squeeze liek this normally. Nothign to see here move along.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 17:12 | 2424974 walküre
walküre's picture

Riding the wave until FB IPO.

After that comes the crash

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:42 | 2424893 Mark123
Mark123's picture

The company reported a first-quarter loss of 2 cents a share, or $11.7 million, on sales of $559.3 million. (expectations were for a 4 cent loss).

 

Gee....a swing of $11 million bottom line on revenue of $560 million.  Eutopia!!!!

 

If there is an accountant who could not come up with some estimates/accruals to achieve that I would be shocked.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:35 | 2424873 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Maybe Facebook will buy them in an all stock transaction...

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:13 | 2424805 BlandJoe24
BlandJoe24's picture

If they pring now, the effects won't last 'till the election.  QE2/3 only lasted a few months last time, and they know the new QE will last a lot less time now.  They have to wait so QE effects still evident in November but not "let" everything completely crash - it's a balancing act, but I suspect they have to wait longer still. 

What do you think?

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:25 | 2424839 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Maybe they do not need to print....just continue to ease credit so all the dull witted trailer park trash and eager new immigrants can buy stuff and eat out to their hearts content.  Easing credit has an almost instant effect (just think how quickly a guy pushing a shopping cart would run up a shiny new Visa card).

 

Since banks don't have to mark to market, they can hide the bad debt for a long time.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:13 | 2424806 SourNStout
SourNStout's picture

Winter is Coming...

Audit --- Expose --- End it

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:14 | 2424812 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The financials may suck but it is a bull market compared to the miners.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:21 | 2424830 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Nice set up to buy though....at some point.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:24 | 2424841 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

maybe....but it's death if you already own em. At least it's a quick death at this pace....

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:28 | 2424845 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

I'll be an equities buyer at S&P 500 at 100. Shouldn't be much longer now.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:31 | 2424854 Mark123
Mark123's picture

I meant buying opportunity for mining stocks....only day traders should be going long on S&P!!

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:21 | 2424834 toothpicker
toothpicker's picture

that's just a minor problem

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:17 | 2424815 walküre
walküre's picture

Alles geht in die Hose.

Volldampf Scheisse voraus.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:21 | 2424827 Mark123
Mark123's picture

This is very odd behaviour...perhaps there is more going on behind the scenes?  Are the insiders cashing out?  Is Buffett selling BAC?

 

 

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:23 | 2424836 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Jim Rogers on now. Interesting insights. JPM is selling their commodities and that is driving them down. He seems to contradict himself saying that he owns the dollar because everyone hates it and it is an awful currency to own. In the next sentence he says the dollar is a safe haven (percieved) and thats why he owns it. Does not make sense.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:25 | 2424844 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Cluelessness is at all time highs, which is the catalyst for the doublespeak from Rogers, Faber, etc.

El Fin.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:30 | 2424850 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

he said he is short JPM and another large US Bank. He also is encouraging Bartiroma to learn to drive a tractor. I'd rather she stand in front of one.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:36 | 2424867 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Agreed.

Listening to them talk I have a hard time believing they have much if anything truly at risk in the markets. I think they both have physical, darkest blue chips, lots of cash, and hedges out the ass. Just my opinion

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 17:16 | 2424987 tu-ne-cede-malis
tu-ne-cede-malis's picture

Jim Rogers today on CNBC

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000090221

 

Anyone know how long he's been pushing the farming idea?  I can remembering hearing it at least since the middle of last year...

 

 

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:29 | 2424847 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Beating expectations" all the way down...

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:33 | 2424859 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

To the banks I say: physician heal thyself.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:35 | 2424872 akak
akak's picture

To the banks I say: Vampire, wooden stake thyself.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:36 | 2424868 Mark123
Mark123's picture

So, tomorrow....are we to expect a short squeeze rally on some rumor?  It's been a while since China has made some sort of empty, self-serving commitment to invest in western fiat-based derivative products.

 

Oh wait...I forgot....China has lent all it's reserves to crooked property speculators, state enterprises and political insiders (those may all be the same).

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:35 | 2424870 Crabshack
Crabshack's picture

JPM: Too Big, Too Frail

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:37 | 2424877 GernB
GernB's picture

"It's priced in" meets "it's not gonna happen."

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:42 | 2424894 akak
akak's picture

"It can't happen here" meets "The federal government will protect/save us!"

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 16:42 | 2424889 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Crash motherfucker, FUCK YOU BERNANKE!!!

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 17:17 | 2424993 Don Draper
Don Draper's picture

FZA is prob good for a 20%+ pop over the next 6 weeks.  Then QE3 and all bets reset.  Looks like it's Facebook and Festivus for the restofus.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 17:33 | 2425031 Bubbles and Busts
Bubbles and Busts's picture

If the “Wall of Worry” truly existed (of which I’m skeptical), than presumably the same effects could work in reverse. Are the big reversals a sign that a “Wall of Optimism” is now present? Have investors become so optimistic about a virtuous cycle in the US, smooth resolution in Europe and soft-landing in China that all dips must be bought regardless of how much news contradicts those presumptions?

 

http://bubblesandbusts.blogspot.com/2012/05/wall-of-optimism.html

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 17:59 | 2425093 mptrader
mptrader's picture

The emini S&P 500 closed leaning on its lower Bollinger Band line, now at 1331.25.  This could be a very ominous sign of forthcoming immediate downside acceleration into a capitulation-liquidation phase (fulfilling the downside potential off the rebounded top formation that emerged from Feb to early May).

Typically, a capitulatory move beneath the lower Bollinger Band line presses 1-3% beneath the line prior to initiating a powerful snap-back oversold rally.  If such a scenario were to unfold now, then the e-SPM could spike down to 1318 at a minimum and to 1291 at a maximum prior to creating extreme near-term "sling-shot" rally conditions. 

Of course, a break of a round number like 1300 might increase the clarion call for more QE, which in and of itself will be a period fraught with additional risks.

Bottom line:  The e-SPM closed the session in a very ominous position.  In the absence of a Turnaround Tuesday session (tomorrow) that propels the index above 1345, my intermediate-term work suggests that the index is vulnerable to potentially acute selling pressure.  

e-SPM chart.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 18:12 | 2425113 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Strange, you speak as if there's a market.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 18:10 | 2425110 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

And the primary elliott wave count for the SP500 continues bearish.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-daily-14-2012/

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 18:13 | 2425111 XtraBullish
XtraBullish's picture

Ahhh just BTFD and relax - own Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan and Apple. There will be new highs by Christmas - 2032.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 18:17 | 2425120 Landrew
Landrew's picture

The real deal is the 30yr. T moved to 2.95%! Short rates went up! The whole yield curve is moving towards inversion? Inversion hasn't happened in so many years I have forgotten the last time? Sometime in 2000 right? Printing only increases the steepness of the inversion. I think the Fed is trapped now?

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 20:24 | 2425333 HAL 9000
HAL 9000's picture

More Technical Analysis --

Tom Demark's Setup/Sequential system reached a significant Sell milestone on May 1st:

S&P 500 Reaches Demark Sell Signals on 3 Timeframes

 

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 21:48 | 2425544 nscholten
nscholten's picture

Why the fuck do you want gold to go up???  i just want to accumulate.  I'm not a millionare anymore so if we can get the fucking price down I can actually afford it....

anything under $1,400 would be be appreciated.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 00:55 | 2425918 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

There's always Argentum for sale as well (around $28/Toz)

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 08:08 | 2426256 hbkshivamgoel
hbkshivamgoel's picture

gold is coming near its 100-Weekly MA and the swing low at 1519..think that might be a buy

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 08:06 | 2426251 hbkshivamgoel
hbkshivamgoel's picture

I think this is just a trivial error, but you are talking about the 100-DMA i think

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