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Deja View, And The Weather
From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors
Daje View
It seems like last Friday we were waiting for details of the latest Greek plan – PSI and Troika. We are still waiting. Details are starting to come out. We should know what the bonds investors are expected to exchange into will look like. The ECB sounds like it may use the interest they have earned on SMP to reduce the amount Greece has to pay back.
Since January 26th,
- the S&P 500 is up 0.5% (it feels like a lot more than that given all the hype this week)
- The Euro is up about the same.
- It might be shocking to some, but HYG is actually down over the week.
- Main is a solid 10 bps tighter.
- UNG (a Nat Gas ETF) is down 3.7% but that doesn’t begin to do justice to the volatility that commodity has had. What a wild ride, almost every day.
- China has been granted “soft” landing status based on a 50.1 print of PMI? (this story is not over)
- The US data has been okay, it has supported the growth crowd, but on the whole it hasn’t been particularly impressive.
The Jobs data gives us an additional twist to today’s Euro watching. How many of the courier jobs will disappear? My guess is the data will be okay, but nothing special, just like the rest of the data. The courier jobs are interesting, not just from what happens this month, but will they come back next year? Amazon has been beaten up over the Kindle, but one of the benefits of the Kindle is that Amazon doesn’t have to deliver e-books. I think we will all forget that by next December when everyone’s payroll estimate will include a bump for couriers, but maybe we won’t.
Anyways, we will see what happens, but the market seems to have priced in a lot of good things (I almost forgot that LTRO2 is coming), and seems to be struggling to make or hold big gains. I’m not sure whether it is a good sign that intraday volatility is making a comeback, but I enjoy it. We may see some trading like last Friday where the market tries to go up in anticipation of next week’s Greek deal, but I think that won’t hold as we’ve already had that run up.
And some thoughts on the Weather
This time last year the weather was an excuse for every piece of economic data that missed. I haven't heard it mentioned this year, except in respect to hurting natural gas prices. Auto sales were great in January, but did the weather help?
Seasonal adjustments are always tricky this time of year but with extreme differences in weather last January compared to this January we might get a bizarre number on payroll and I'm wondering if we might get an upside surprise ( in spite of firing couriers and what appears to me to be an economy that is slowing down again).
They do say people talk about the weather when they have nothing more interesting to say.
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PERES-TROIKA!
Off topic, what happens to the stock market if Obamacare is repealed and it looks like Mitt Romney will be president?
Off, off topic:
FBI chainsaws wrong door.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504083_162-57369821-504083/fbi-chainsaw-mist...
The fascist have a date stamp on their forehead, 2018. Now answer the fucking question.
This story gets under my skin. Honestly - if this was happening would you "hope" it was law enforcement on the other side? They are lucky no one was killed. Obviously it wasn't necessary because they caught the suspect they wanted WITHOUT damaging his door or firing a shot.
The market will react.
Hey America, want to know more weather stuff? Look east. Piers Corbyn said 2 or 3 huge ones for the US this winter and you've had none yet. Perhaps time to really prepare for a chart-busting couple of storms. Eastern Europe is in freak snow storm like not seen in a long time.
2. Please pay attention to all the breaking news about the San Onofre disaster that is quiety unfolding in San Diego.
I just checked....it's on the 33rd parallel!!!
/san-onofre-33rd-parallel-4th-7th-feb-window-out-on-a-limb/
Yoicks...
ori
50th-anniversary-remembering-4th-february-a-very-important-date/
How's the weather?
i dunno, but we've been having lots of it.
I've bought a few Kindle editions of technical books. Can't emphasize how much I hate using that stupid application, which slows down progressively, the more highlights you put down. And the hyperlinks are generally broken, and the appendix doesn't list page indices.
I'm also disgusted by how badly the hyperlinks and indices work.
I have the impression you have to take out the "share highlight" option for better performance.
Yes, but I work across 3 PCs in different locations, so they're kind of important to me...
I love those 50.1 PMI Numbers...What was it a rounding error from 40!
Did you say the greek bonds will be settled???
here...talk about this if your bored then:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z54yt9L9jx4&feature=player_detailpage
i've often wondered actually "what's the rule on farting in the chair" for the media people who have to sit. I mean...what if the last..."host"..."splays out a mean one"...and then one those dainty girls walks in and...OMG!!!!!
The remainder of the winter will be warm. As i posted a few months ago, the oak trees had few acorns and the bee hives were built low on the trees. This predicts a warm winter. The last time the signs were this warm was 1983. Back then the gas transmission companies didnt take any gas out of storage all winter. Many producing gas wells had to be shut in all summer. I haven't seen any storage data for january. And also in 1983, Europe froze. Everything evens out.
The remainder of the winter will be warm. As i posted a few months ago, the oak trees had few acorns and the bee hives were built low on the trees. This predicts a warm winter. The last time the signs were this warm was 1983. Back then the gas transmission companies didnt take any gas out of storage all winter. Many producing gas wells had to be shut in all summer. I haven't seen any storage data for january. And also in 1983, Europe froze. Everything evens out.
maybe it was the weather! what a job number - obama must be jumping up and down...is qe off the table?
one of the benefits of the Kindle is that Amazon doesn’t have to deliver e-books.
No it just has to have a Website in your language and since in Europe it is in UK, Spain, Austria, Germany, France, Italy and the cheapest Kindle is 99 Euros and $79 in the US.....and the Kindle keyboard costs $139 in the USA and 159 Euros in Germany it doesn't quite have the penetration in Southern Europe since WiFi hotspots are not as common (or free) in Europe as in the US. The way Playbook prices are falling here Kindle starts to look really expensive so Foxconn might want to consider how much margin Bezos is taking for a flashdrive with keyboard and monochrome display. Especially when we get hit with 19% Sales Tax on eBooks and o% on real books.
Tchir is an idiot but he totally called the upside surprise in nfp
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