Democratic Convention Trumps Economic Reality As Consumer Confidence Surges

Tyler Durden's picture

Gallup's US economic confidence index surged 11 points last week (more than the 10 points when Bin Laden was killed) and has reached levels comparable to the pre-crisis highs from January 2008. As Gallup notes, it appears that the spark for the dramatic rise in Americans' economic confidence last week was the Democratic National Convention. A review of Gallup's nightly tracking results shows that the index was consistently near or below -25 each night in late August and early September, but then sharply improved on Sept. 4, the first night of the convention, to -18. Confidence then held at or near -18 through Sunday, despite the dismal August unemployment report Friday morning showing continued weak jobs growth. More specifically, the convention appears to have given Democrats and, to a lesser degree, independents, fresh optimism about the economy. We can only assume that the cognitive dissonance of the hope-holding believers-in-change will not carry through to real economic growth or all those other 'hopers' - the 'this-time-QE-is-different' crowd - will be sadly disappointed.

Economic confidence jumped remarkably this week - near record highs now...


As it seems Obama got his message out...


Charts: Gallup

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morph's picture

If $3.2bn is 0.5% of GDP for Q4 is JPM trying to say that US GDP for Q4 is going to be $640bn?

GetZeeGold's picture



Gonna pay my mortgage...gonna put gas in my car.


How could I not be optimistic?


greyghost's picture

i thinking not so much the democrats as more the baininite twins are repugnant to the american people. just another republican that is sickened by this fools business model. just sayin

Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Gallup's methodology and [ any ] remaining objectivity have been completely compromised by the DOJ's "whistleblower" suit against said polling organization. Wholly unreliable as a source for unmanipulated polling.

In sum, when referring to any data output published as a result of the collection methods and filtering processes employed by the Gallup Organization, one ought recall the programmer's saw:

GIGO...integrity of output is completely dependent upon the integrity of input; the operative word being "integrity."

economics9698's picture

The 85 IQ crowd hoping that EBT card stays valid another 4 years.

greyghost's picture

exactly jay....every poll i have gotten since bob dole ran for president has been an exercise in torture. the way a question is asked and the "allowed" answers will get you the answer you are looking for. my wife and I, along with all the good little republicans on the block are getting almost daily "tell what you think polls" along with the request for a donation from both the gop and the romney boys. one day we got two mailings from both  groups on the same day! my favorite is the postage paid envelope with the request to use my own all it is a tough economy and i have been sending the envelopes back empty, without my stamp of course. my wife and i feel it is our duty to help the stressed postal service. shhh...i told the neighbor across the street we were doing that.....shhh, now i understand everyone is doing their patriotic duty!!!!!

James's picture

Next time tape that postage paid envelope to a brick.

Judge Arrow's picture

It is indeed astonishing how well Obama is doing in the polls since the whistleblower lawsuit filed by the DOJ - I think they all got the message - what a guy!

LMAOLORI's picture


Keep smokin that Hopium kids it won't last long

Here It Comes (Moody's)

howenlink's picture

What do ZH, .45 ACP, and Vitamin-C have in common?



Vincent Vega's picture

Don't forget Au.   And a little O/T.....DXY touched 79 handle today.

xtop23's picture

i was going to say pirates all need them. either in the german, somali, or blackbeard variety respectively.

insanelysane's picture

The new economy is food stamps and disability payments so the outlook is very bullish.  Free stuff for everyone courtesy of the FED.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It's nice to see that the herd can still be triggered into stampeding. The puppet masters must be very pleased.

Zero Govt's picture

if they mean by "consumers" unproductive welfare recipients/parasites then the Democrat Party can always be counted on to get them stirred up ...nice voter base

insanelysane's picture

Everyone bitching about crumbling infrastructure.  At least in the 30s they put people in work camps and built some infrastructure.  Nowadays the people collecting just collect, sit in public housing, and don't ask them to do some work maintaining the public housing or they get angry.

Rainman's picture

Sandra Fluke must have stirred up a lot of confidence with her speech. Free poontang for all !!

max2205's picture

Got nothing to do today, hummmm I'll get me a free abortion. And painkillers. Win win

James's picture

How about the FL. pizza shop owner who picked up and bear-hugged O only to be boycotted for it by his customers?

death_to_fed_tyranny's picture

Nothing but LIES from the various propaganda outlets!

GetZeeGold's picture



Oh come on now.........they wouldn't do that to us would they?


Ima anal sphincter's picture

You're correct that it is working "on some people." It is NOT working for most ZH readers. It actually extends beyond these hallowed pages. The number of pissed off folks grows every day. When enough "see the light" we can end this raping.

Remember 911..... the day your country openly murdered its own. The evil runs top to bottom in government. Slay the beast.

Mercury's picture

NFL Commissioner Says We Should Have A Football Game

Henry Kissinger Insists That War Should Come Soon

Entitlement Confidence Index Soars Following Entitlement Party Convention

Results from new survey about bears using the forest as a bathroom after the break…

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

At least their s**t (da Bears) don't stink. :)

knightowl77's picture

yes it does, it smells like sheeple....

Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Clinton will save us!

Look at that beautiful silver hair.

Please pass the foodstamps and get me another beer, will you honey!

Shizzmoney's picture

This economy is GREAT for rich people.  I mean, they are getting some amazing deals on houses, cars, iGadgets.  Everything luxury and household is deflating, and things will only get better for the rich folk.

For those who are confident, otherwise? 

Well, if you can't spot the sucker at the poker table......well then, it's probably you!

tradebot's picture

Look for the dem at the table...he's the sucker

Muddy1's picture

I'll bet that Gallup was strong armed into getting these results the same way they were strong armed into getting better polling results on the Romney Obamapresidential race.

Winston Churchill's picture

Anything from Gallup is suspect now with criminal charges now laid by

AG Holdem's DoJ.

This Administration makes Nixon look like choirboy.

samcontrol's picture

Kind of off topic but since its mentioned and i was not here before.

Who thinks the Bin Laden raid and death was bs?

pods's picture

Does it really matter?

The Saddam capture was the best.  I saw one guy break that one apart by seeing unripened figs in the capture photos.  Hilarious.

I just assume that 95% of the shit fed to me is just that, and the other 5% is not worth searching for.


samcontrol's picture

Well, on a day like today it does a little.

We are on the same page , just wanted to know just how much bs we can be" fed". That,s why i,m here really. So i try not to lose my money and come up with a safe(lol) way to keep my cash flow...

tradebot's picture

It's not a democratic's a democrate convention...that's a misnomer

pods's picture

Yet another illustration as to why we are sooooo fucked.

This poll is indicative of the emotion based "thinking" that 90% of Amerikans employ in their day to day lives.

Think people, don't feel.


Nobody For President's picture

I COMPLETELY missed the 'economy is getting better' party. Guess I have to start watching TV again.

JustPrintMoreDuh's picture

I've got that hopey changey tingling down my leg ... 

1fortheroad's picture

All hell the Potus in Chief.

trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

Remember that Obama/Axelrod has sicced the DoJ on Gallup. So, everything coming from them should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Additionally, other pollsters are probably looking over their shoulders now too and producing "better" polls for the WH in an attempt to stay out of the crosshairs. Its simply a massive PsyOps campaign at this point. 

FubarNation's picture

I tried to objectivley watch that D & C convention.


I started with Dr. Jill Biden.  I lasted about 2 minutes.  Couldn't do it.


We are all so fucked.


Glad folks are feeling great about the country.  The meds must be working.

Zero Govt's picture

baffled how anyone can connect the dots between consumer confidence and a Democratic shindig where the President calls for "more sacrifice" and collectivism (Communism) in Americas future

we all know what "more sacrifice" means, more tax (theft) for the pigs at the trough in DC while everyone else has less peas on their table

Meesohaawnee's picture

they dont call this the CON fidence numbers for nothing. but the funny thing is why we know this is a fraud. Go read any mainstream message board. Blowhorn market watch. CON findence its anything but. Another government sham!

SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Romney camp....looking for the panic button.

cosmictrainwreck's picture

I was trying to figure WTF the boner the "market" grew first thing out the gate - OH, that's it the Consumer! I would posit a more sinister angle = they're gonna show US a 9/11 TRIUMPH of magnificent style...."see: we have da Victory"

Vince Clortho's picture

More charts and graphics showing that all is well!

What more could one hope for?

gaoptimize's picture

How do I short this euphoria?

samcontrol's picture


if you have the magic ball ( when) then ....
uvxy or vxx options. personally lost -- k on those at the start of the year.

Good luck with that.