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Democratic Convention Trumps Economic Reality As Consumer Confidence Surges

Tyler Durden's picture


Gallup's US economic confidence index surged 11 points last week (more than the 10 points when Bin Laden was killed) and has reached levels comparable to the pre-crisis highs from January 2008. As Gallup notes, it appears that the spark for the dramatic rise in Americans' economic confidence last week was the Democratic National Convention. A review of Gallup's nightly tracking results shows that the index was consistently near or below -25 each night in late August and early September, but then sharply improved on Sept. 4, the first night of the convention, to -18. Confidence then held at or near -18 through Sunday, despite the dismal August unemployment report Friday morning showing continued weak jobs growth. More specifically, the convention appears to have given Democrats and, to a lesser degree, independents, fresh optimism about the economy. We can only assume that the cognitive dissonance of the hope-holding believers-in-change will not carry through to real economic growth or all those other 'hopers' - the 'this-time-QE-is-different' crowd - will be sadly disappointed.

Economic confidence jumped remarkably this week - near record highs now...


As it seems Obama got his message out...


Charts: Gallup


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Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:28 | Link to Comment morph
morph's picture

If $3.2bn is 0.5% of GDP for Q4 is JPM trying to say that US GDP for Q4 is going to be $640bn?

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:42 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Gonna pay my mortgage...gonna put gas in my car.


How could I not be optimistic?


Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment greyghost
greyghost's picture

i thinking not so much the democrats as more the baininite twins are repugnant to the american people. just another republican that is sickened by this fools business model. just sayin

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Gallup's methodology and [ any ] remaining objectivity have been completely compromised by the DOJ's "whistleblower" suit against said polling organization. Wholly unreliable as a source for unmanipulated polling.

In sum, when referring to any data output published as a result of the collection methods and filtering processes employed by the Gallup Organization, one ought recall the programmer's saw:

GIGO...integrity of output is completely dependent upon the integrity of input; the operative word being "integrity."

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 11:37 | Link to Comment economics9698
economics9698's picture

The 85 IQ crowd hoping that EBT card stays valid another 4 years.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 12:22 | Link to Comment greyghost
greyghost's picture

exactly jay....every poll i have gotten since bob dole ran for president has been an exercise in torture. the way a question is asked and the "allowed" answers will get you the answer you are looking for. my wife and I, along with all the good little republicans on the block are getting almost daily "tell what you think polls" along with the request for a donation from both the gop and the romney boys. one day we got two mailings from both  groups on the same day! my favorite is the postage paid envelope with the request to use my own all it is a tough economy and i have been sending the envelopes back empty, without my stamp of course. my wife and i feel it is our duty to help the stressed postal service. shhh...i told the neighbor across the street we were doing that.....shhh, now i understand everyone is doing their patriotic duty!!!!!

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 14:07 | Link to Comment James
James's picture

Next time tape that postage paid envelope to a brick.

Wed, 09/12/2012 - 00:43 | Link to Comment Judge Arrow
Judge Arrow's picture

It is indeed astonishing how well Obama is doing in the polls since the whistleblower lawsuit filed by the DOJ - I think they all got the message - what a guy!

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 12:48 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture


Keep smokin that Hopium kids it won't last long

Here It Comes (Moody's)

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:29 | Link to Comment howenlink
howenlink's picture

What do ZH, .45 ACP, and Vitamin-C have in common?



Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:34 | Link to Comment Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

Don't forget Au.   And a little O/T.....DXY touched 79 handle today.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:38 | Link to Comment xtop23
xtop23's picture

i was going to say pirates all need them. either in the german, somali, or blackbeard variety respectively.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:31 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

The new economy is food stamps and disability payments so the outlook is very bullish.  Free stuff for everyone courtesy of the FED.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It's nice to see that the herd can still be triggered into stampeding. The puppet masters must be very pleased.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 11:06 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

if they mean by "consumers" unproductive welfare recipients/parasites then the Democrat Party can always be counted on to get them stirred up ...nice voter base

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Everyone bitching about crumbling infrastructure.  At least in the 30s they put people in work camps and built some infrastructure.  Nowadays the people collecting just collect, sit in public housing, and don't ask them to do some work maintaining the public housing or they get angry.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Rainman
Rainman's picture

Sandra Fluke must have stirred up a lot of confidence with her speech. Free poontang for all !!

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 11:07 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Got nothing to do today, hummmm I'll get me a free abortion. And painkillers. Win win

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 14:16 | Link to Comment James
James's picture

How about the FL. pizza shop owner who picked up and bear-hugged O only to be boycotted for it by his customers?

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment death_to_fed_tyranny
death_to_fed_tyranny's picture

Nothing but LIES from the various propaganda outlets!

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:43 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Oh come on now.........they wouldn't do that to us would they?


Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

The con is working.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 11:51 | Link to Comment Ima anal sphincter
Ima anal sphincter's picture

You're correct that it is working "on some people." It is NOT working for most ZH readers. It actually extends beyond these hallowed pages. The number of pissed off folks grows every day. When enough "see the light" we can end this raping.

Remember 911..... the day your country openly murdered its own. The evil runs top to bottom in government. Slay the beast.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:50 | Link to Comment Mercury
Mercury's picture

NFL Commissioner Says We Should Have A Football Game

Henry Kissinger Insists That War Should Come Soon

Entitlement Confidence Index Soars Following Entitlement Party Convention

Results from new survey about bears using the forest as a bathroom after the break…

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:52 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

At least their s**t (da Bears) don't stink. :)

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:56 | Link to Comment knightowl77
knightowl77's picture

yes it does, it smells like sheeple....

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Clinton will save us!

Look at that beautiful silver hair.

Please pass the foodstamps and get me another beer, will you honey!

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:36 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

This economy is GREAT for rich people.  I mean, they are getting some amazing deals on houses, cars, iGadgets.  Everything luxury and household is deflating, and things will only get better for the rich folk.

For those who are confident, otherwise? 

Well, if you can't spot the sucker at the poker table......well then, it's probably you!

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:38 | Link to Comment tradebot
tradebot's picture

Look for the dem at the table...he's the sucker

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:35 | Link to Comment Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

I'll bet that Gallup was strong armed into getting these results the same way they were strong armed into getting better polling results on the Romney Obamapresidential race.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Anything from Gallup is suspect now with criminal charges now laid by

AG Holdem's DoJ.

This Administration makes Nixon look like choirboy.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:43 | Link to Comment samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

Kind of off topic but since its mentioned and i was not here before.

Who thinks the Bin Laden raid and death was bs?

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Does it really matter?

The Saddam capture was the best.  I saw one guy break that one apart by seeing unripened figs in the capture photos.  Hilarious.

I just assume that 95% of the shit fed to me is just that, and the other 5% is not worth searching for.


Tue, 09/11/2012 - 14:07 | Link to Comment samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

Well, on a day like today it does a little.

We are on the same page , just wanted to know just how much bs we can be" fed". That,s why i,m here really. So i try not to lose my money and come up with a safe(lol) way to keep my cash flow...

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:43 | Link to Comment Gimp
Gimp's picture


Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:44 | Link to Comment tradebot
tradebot's picture

It's not a democratic's a democrate convention...that's a misnomer

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Yet another illustration as to why we are sooooo fucked.

This poll is indicative of the emotion based "thinking" that 90% of Amerikans employ in their day to day lives.

Think people, don't feel.


Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:47 | Link to Comment Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

I COMPLETELY missed the 'economy is getting better' party. Guess I have to start watching TV again.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:50 | Link to Comment JustPrintMoreDuh
JustPrintMoreDuh's picture

I've got that hopey changey tingling down my leg ... 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:50 | Link to Comment 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

All hell the Potus in Chief.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:52 | Link to Comment trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

Remember that Obama/Axelrod has sicced the DoJ on Gallup. So, everything coming from them should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Additionally, other pollsters are probably looking over their shoulders now too and producing "better" polls for the WH in an attempt to stay out of the crosshairs. Its simply a massive PsyOps campaign at this point. 

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:52 | Link to Comment FubarNation
FubarNation's picture

I tried to objectivley watch that D & C convention.


I started with Dr. Jill Biden.  I lasted about 2 minutes.  Couldn't do it.


We are all so fucked.


Glad folks are feeling great about the country.  The meds must be working.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 10:57 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

baffled how anyone can connect the dots between consumer confidence and a Democratic shindig where the President calls for "more sacrifice" and collectivism (Communism) in Americas future

we all know what "more sacrifice" means, more tax (theft) for the pigs at the trough in DC while everyone else has less peas on their table

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 11:03 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

they dont call this the CON fidence numbers for nothing. but the funny thing is why we know this is a fraud. Go read any mainstream message board. Blowhorn market watch. CON findence its anything but. Another government sham!

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 11:06 | Link to Comment SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Romney camp....looking for the panic button.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 11:09 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

I was trying to figure WTF the boner the "market" grew first thing out the gate - OH, that's it the Consumer! I would posit a more sinister angle = they're gonna show US a 9/11 TRIUMPH of magnificent style...."see: we have da Victory"

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

More charts and graphics showing that all is well!

What more could one hope for?

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 11:22 | Link to Comment gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

How do I short this euphoria?

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 14:13 | Link to Comment samcontrol
samcontrol's picture


if you have the magic ball ( when) then ....
uvxy or vxx options. personally lost -- k on those at the start of the year.

Good luck with that.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 12:29 | Link to Comment Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Consumer confidence is related to the death of the biggest strawman in American propaganda history, who never had the slightest connection whatsoever to the economy, let alone at the time of his of his supposed death? And now it's somehow related to the 2012 Rot-Demokratisch Reichsparteig? Give me a fucking break, these people got exactly the economy they deserve, they just haven't realized it yet.

I'd ask where Gallup finds such imbeciles to poll but I already know the answer.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 12:46 | Link to Comment roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

Americans will take hope over hate.

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 13:30 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Yeah man we are all roaring back to life

Tue, 09/11/2012 - 14:20 | Link to Comment DOT
DOT's picture

Sold the bank some paper promising 2.78%; made a deal with the wife:

1) New Kitchen'

2) New Canoe (to replace the one that sunk)

3) More gear.



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