Der Elefant In Das Room: Germany - The Ultimate Doomsday Presentation
* Please stop emailing us: we know the German is gramatically incorrect. That was not by mistake.
Two months ago, Carmel Asset Management came out with what we dubbed "Spain: The Ultimate Doomsday Presentation." Since that day Spanish yields have exploded, the domestic (and global) stock market has collapsed, and as of hours ago, Spain for the first time requested an official bail out from its European partners. But Spain was easy - only Nobel prize winning economists and TV anchors could not foresee the final outcome for the country. Today, we redirect our attention to real elephant in the room: Germany. Recall that it was right here on Zero Hedge where we warned, just under a year ago, that "the cost of the euro not plunging today as a result of the ECB not proceeding with outright monetization, is that Germany is now the ultimate backstopper of all of Europe's risk... Germany has directly onboarded the risk associated with terminal failure of this latest and riskiest "bailout" plan and in doing so may have jeopardized anywhere between 32% and 56% of its entire annual economic output. One wonders if the risk of runaway inflation is worth offsetting the risk of a plunge into the worst depression in the nation's history?" Simply said: Germany's opportunity cost to preserving the status quo right now, is at a cost of hundreds of billions in the future, yet even that pales to the cost of letting it all fall apart. But this was a year ago, and out of headlines means out of mind. Today, we are happy to remind readers of just this dilemma, once again courtesy of Carmel. And if the hedge funds' predictive ability is gauged by the response in the Spanish market (and economy), Germany should be worried. Very worried.
To summarize, as we inquired on July 21, 2011:
- The Cost to Save the Euro is Much Less Than to Let It Fall Apart, but Do the Germans Have the Political Will?
Read on. It only gets better. And by better we mean terrifying for all our German readers.
h/t Peter Tchir