This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Despite Record High Stocks, Consumer Confidence Crashes to 9 Month Low
With inflation expectations soaring and jobs plentiful relative to hard-to-get falling slightly, Consumer Confidence plunged its most in 10 months to a level not seen since November of last year. It seems that despite all the hopes and prayers priced into US equity market valuations, the US Consumer remains unimpressed, unhappy, and unemployed. Of course, the 'good is bad, bad is better' market has interpreted this as a clear QE-on flag (for this millisecond anyway).
Consumer Confidence is at a 9 month low...
having crashed at its fastest pace in 10 months...
Charts: Bloomberg
»
- 6853 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Too bad my wealth effect is being spent on food and fuel to survive.
Transitory. Those items which are bought every week are not part of the CORE, whereas housing and vehicles ARE CORE. You see, that's why inflation is only 2%. In fact, you can substitute paste and cat food for SPAM and Ramen noodles, thus YOUR inflation is actually falling.
Actually, cat food versus SPAM is actually a toss-up, financially AND nutritionally; but cat food comes in more flavors.
I prefer Fancy Feast fish stew. The house cat and I are always fighting over who gets fed first.
I usually lose.........but only 'cus Mrs Cog had me de-clawed.
and to think she once called you the cat's meow
Yep, food is the only thing worth it. Especially THIS one:
http://youtu.be/7tdDdDgOhQM
Bacon forever!
I prefer the portable variety for those of us who are on the go. :)
Clearly these are not core inflation items.
People who were smart enough to buy the S&P this summer have been handsomely rewarded. Doomer shorts, deranged VIX longs and hillbilly mining stock investors have been absolutely demolished. When will greasy ZH day traders cave and start buying US stocks and US treasuries? Surely they must be bankrupt by now??
I like you nearly as much as that US citizenism guy.
At least MDB is funny and changes what he says, AnAnonymous is just plain old retarded.
Dear MDB: I'm sitting in cash awaiting the next crash. Please tell me you are 100% long with a 3X ETF.
Too funny bro. Great performance art.
All I have left to rub together are my Gold and Silver Eagles. Does that count as bankrupt?
M$B, You still averaging down your cost on FB?
MDB has his hopes on a little guy with a magic wand in the hopes that he waves it to do something which has shown not to work in creating demand; de cat puts his belief in that every data point global is severely negative at this point. I plan on taking your short-term gain and turning into an amusement park for felines complete with giant balls of string and laser pointers shaped like cheese.
"handsomely rewarded" You mean like plastic surgery?
I'll be using treasuries and stock certificates for kindling when I get to the Hamptons after the revolution.
@MDB
The only stock I remember you buying this summer was Facebook... What are you now, on your 3rd tranche of dollar cost averaging?
as said before:
For the QExx addicted, bad is good and worse is better...
Since your name and posts seem to be created only to enflame readers of Zerohedge ... and to widen the gap between the Wall Street criminal eliment and the general public, there should be no need to respond to your posts.
As for me, this will be the last one I respond to. I do not support your purpose here.
ok. robotrader.. be gone
I don't know about greasy ZH traders but it sounds like someone sure is going to go bankrupt some day. Just follow the bubbles MDB you'll be fine. :)
you forgot to insult the libertarians...
At least I'm not morally bankrupt
Are you still "dollar cost averaging" Facebook, you flaming mook?
funny thing, I heard the price of those two things are related
all I hear is crashes everywhere
Here's the problem, many if not most people could care less about stock prices as they have little invested in the market. Yes, some have pensions of funds based partially upon market value, but for the most part people with their average 20-30k exposure to stocks aren't impacted like the talking heads would like us to believe. What "mainstreet" cares about is food and gas prices (currently $4.39 at my closest station), health care cost, college tuition cost, makng thier house payment, paying property taxes, and having a fewd ollars left over for an annual vacation, smart phone, and kids back to school clothes. AAPL at $670 doesn't accomplsih this, nor does SPX 1,400. The FED robbed the middle class of their savings by lowering savings rates, and pumping the market that benefits primarily the 1%.
... many if not most people could care less about stock prices as they have little invested in the market.
Every one who has their retirement account invested in stocks cares. I know folks who have most of their retirement accounts invested in stocks, and they care a lot. This fact does not detract from your other point about what "mainstream" cares about.
"I know folks who have most of their retirement accounts invested in stocks"
I am very sorry for those people.
Stocks and inflation are different things.
Mainstreet has been killed by inflation. That hurts them everyday.
Stocks (401k) are irrelevent. That's money we can't touch without severe penalties, and it doesn't pay the bills.
Inflation (and political malfeasance) is why people are talking about revolution.
Gasoline prices.
Don't forget food (13%), heating oil (33%), clothing (13%) and household goods (Walmart - 24%). It's a damned good thing I was able to cancel cable and the cell phone and no longer contribute to retirement or the HSA, otherwise I might be experiencing inflation.
It can't be that the dollar is losing value, it must be terrorists. I heard a Chicago Walmart collapsed into its footprint. All the government foodcards were blown to bits but they found the perpetrators intact - stapled to his will which was penned on the back of a receipt to a strip bar. Federal agents immediately pulled all the store cameras but experts say he could not have possibly maneuvered the cart down the aisle with that precision. There was a small localized fire but scientists say depends and five hour energy bottles can not melt at those temperatures
Equities are hot hot hot baby!!!
Equities deep red all across the planet today, except in the non-confident USA!
Maybe the Fed should direct the next QE towards bread and circuses.
Just sayin'
P T Bernanke and Bailout
Wallmart and the NFL. Fixed that for you. We'll make SNAP eligible for tickets, like a rewards program.
Actually, I'm absolutely positive we're about to head into a black hole.
it's ok! I talked to a skittle shitting unicorn that said everything was going to trickle down
can't be much longer now I figure
when I start seeing more things like unicorns I mean....
If its that ironic, something aint right.
Now back to watching the rest of the market propping up AAPLs fall
I guess I am stupid but how the "f" does QE help consumer confidence?
It will help a lot you just have to believe.
Kind like this RECOVERY.
QE jacks up the stock market. When us dummy investors look at our 401K quarterly reports, they want to program us to respond "Wow...I'm richer than I thought...guess I'll go out and max the credit card and spend". Six months later, Bennie and the Fed can tell us dummy investors that QE4 will soon arrive. We dummy investors will be happy to know that our 401K will again go up so we can continue spending on ithings. That's how QE helps consumer confidence.
what are stocks high on?
The only drug that matters.
Hopium......mainlined it appears.
I thought that's why were in Afghanistan
There's no other rush quite like it.
Wait...........are we talking about war or Hopium? And is there a difference?
I prefer Neil Peart. No hangover just a little ear ringing
No. "What is sustaining the economy?" shouldmbe the question. And on this score "the Tylers Durden" have been spot on. Clearly the hopium has failed...yet is it only logical that it does? For unlike efficient market theory economics can be EXCEEDINGLY rational (another word for downsizing...yes?) when it wants to be. Focus should be on the DEBT markets sheeple...NOT equities "which are STILL puny in comparison."
So are you saying that Hopium is not pushing the stock market higher? Or at least maintaining the momentum?
I agree the "debt" (bond) market is much larger than the stock market. But the stock market is where the focus is maintained so that is where the illusion is the strongest.
They definitely getting some help out at the pump.
Especially so when Uncle Ben opens those printing presses soon.
That should really help out Joe the Plumber then.
Inflation expectations at 5-6%? Folks at home do not believe the zero print BS either.
Not been here before have we......
The housing bubble was a much more effective fake wealth creator. A lot of middle class famlies saw $150K houses turn into $450K houses, which many perceived as free money that was withdrawn by home equity ATMs and then spent into the economy. Few middle class families have near as much money in 401Ks. I read somewhere that the average is in the low 10's, and it's harder to pull that money out too. The middle class may get no love from the Red Team or the Blue Team, but it is the engine of the U.S. economy.
Thats exactly right LTER. Which is why I don't understand people who keep trying to connect the stock market to either candidate. Oil, yes....stocks not so much.
Another fun fact: because the massive government spending we've been experiencing has not being spent on job creating activities, government revenues have essentially gone nowhere (income tax + social insurance tax = 92% of fed gov revs), ergo, more taxes and less benefits to make up for the bazooka. Good thing we have Mitt Romney as an alternative! Fuck.
Fiscal cliff with massive taxes coming?
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/08/28/case-shiller-20-city-composite-rose-2-3-mom-in-june-consumer-confidence-falls/
I would like to meet the people who are still confident!!
The only people confident are those that don't have to earn a living. The vast majoriy of wealth in the USA is no longer earned, only transfered.
Wealth is being created out of thin air. That can only go on for so long.
Three of them are down the road from me in the local mental health facility. And two more were interviewed by the press at the local methadone outpatient clinic. Happy to send you the addresses.
...housing is following the census...and what remains available for purchase on credit, on the back of collateralized vacant rentals, but a rotting apple.
Numbers don't mean anything. They are just there to spike the S&P higher. What is a number that would move the market down? GDP is 4%, market goes higher. GDP is 1%, market goes higher. Consumer confidence rises, market goes up. Consumer confidence collapses, market rises. Why does anyone pay attention to the numbers anymore? They are just buy signals for the algos.
oh don't worry hollween season is coming with candy sales ticking up BULLISH!!! dow up 150 and then its back to black friday with sales only down .4% BULLISH dow up 160 and then well you know its Christmas time with sales only down 1.4% of an expected 5% that a 3.6% increase, print it BULLISH!!!! dow up 300
A friend of mine's brother opens 3 of those temporary Halloween stores in LA every year. Makes frigging fortune even in this economy. I couldnt believe you could make so much even with all the shoplifting which he says is horrible (doesn't even try to prosecute, just priced in). Mostly cash too. The guy had a comfortable living and this is all he does. I guess you never go broke betting on the lowest common denominator. I decided on a different path... perpetual tax slave.
Miffed:-)
I wonder what happens when the 100 or so people holding 90% of stocks go to sell?
Apple could be $1900 a share but it won't matter if nobody is left to buy.
I'll pay $50 for a share of Apple right now. That is what I believe it is worth. If nobody else is willing to buy, that it what they will get.
Too many people falsely believe that stocks are money. The good thing is that most of the common men have realized this fact and will never play the great con game again.
Bernanke's job is to prop up the house with no foundation in the hopes a buyer dumb enough not to look inside, buys the home sight unseen.
Title should be "Despine record high stock market manipulation by the Federal Reserve, confidence dropping like a stone..."
Shitty consumer confidence evidently = raging valuations in CRE.
REITS going ape shit upward, as usual, for their daily fraud fest.
Buying REITs is basically a bet that government manipulation of stuff that affects the financials will continue. Pretty safe bet.
Despite record high in stocks, consumer confidence is low....
Because no one owns stocks. The average boomer has 100k in retirement. They are relient on SS. Stocks are for the rich, not for the poor. Thus why stocks will continue to go up as fiat dies; the rich are tied to the corporate sphere, and the poor are not.
The poor have to pay their month to month checks on gas and food while the rich own the corporations that make trillions of dollars. This is because the poor and what was once the middle class were hogtied to NAFTA and now have no jobs. The corporitists run the companies that have moved labor from America to China. They are benifting from the bottom line paradigm shift.
Are stocks returning real gains? No. But they are pacing inflation nominally, and owning them has been better than living paycheck to paycheck while cashing out 401ks to make ends meet, if that is to pay down debt or a mortgage.
I think your comment on "what was once the middle class" is the real issue. To some degree, Romney was right when he said he didn't worry abou the poor because they actually get a lot of government support and the rich have done fine. It's the middle that gets stuck with not enough money and little goverment assistance. They see their savings earning nothing, thanks to ZIRP, with continual promises that it will pay nothing for years. They see insane college, healthcare costs, gasoline and food rising and still expensive housing and they know that taxes will have to rise to cover all the insane spending and giveaways to the poor and the rich. Taxes have already risen over the past few years at the state and local level and Federal is just a matter of time.
A 30yr old with $20k in the bank isn't going to make enough in the stock market to ever retire. Buy and hold is dead. Even if Apple triples from its level right now, $60k isn't going to last long if you don't have a job. The far greater scenario is that the market tracks the last 20 years and follows the boom and bust pattern that leaves you with what you started with as a best case, and 10% of what you had as a worse case.
A 30yr old daytrading his $20k may make a whole lot of money, but is even more likely to lose it all. You can chase momentum and be up big for a short time, and then watch your supposed wealth disappear in the blink of an eye. There were a lot of people I know that put half their savings into Netflix after analysts said the stock would go to $500 or more.
You can't get blood out of a turnip. The last drop was The Power getting all the money that the Boomer's parents (the savers) had left them. It's all gone now and no trickle down is coming even in the form of slave labor. The world is way over built for what is coming in the future.
Not rocket science. Most people don't own stocks and Bernanke's hell bent desire to cause inflation just causes misery and suffering. Cost of living is rising for a population with high unemployment and lagging wages gains for the employed.
I still want Ben to explain to me why I would be better off if the $2,000 42 inch flat screen of 10 years ago, instead of declining to $400 now had actually risen to $3,500.
Who can be confident? Our leaders are academics that have no idea what they are doing and believe that they are smarter than the markets.
The Fed rightly ascertained that the stock market was the most visible arbiter of "confidence" back in 2009...but after successful takeover of the market and simultaneous retreat by the retail investor, it ceases to be that measuring stick. Real good paying jobs for you, your extended family, friends and neighbors are the only measuring stick from here on out.
DOH!
More GOP Hypocrisy:
David Vitter Republican Senator from Louisiana:
Praising the SOCIALIST GOVERNMENT RUN INSURANCE PROGRAM (National Flood Insurance Program)
At he says at 2:25 into the 5 minute interview on CNBC this morning (and that fucking asswipe Kernan didn't say a peep!):
"Everybody here depends on the National Flood Insurance Program...Thank Goodness a couple of months ago we got a long term 5 year re-authorization of this program...that's important to the country..."
WHAT-WHAT-WHAT Here is what boils my blood - the height of hypocrisy - Here is a very conservative GOP senator WHO LOVES HIS SOCIALIST GOVERNMENT RUN AND FUNDED SCHEME. And the heavy GOP states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida are all for it! Who does this SOCIALIST program benefit? The whole Country? Not even close - just a few wealthy folks who own water front homes in areas prone to Hurricanes and flooding.
Who the PRIVATE sector insurance companies would not, in there right minds cover! At least not at the very low subsidized rates their wealthy water front property owners are used to paying (thanks to a huge taxpayer funded subsidy).
WHY - because these areas KEEP GETTING HIT - Over and over again.
What about this SOCIALIST PROGRAM - HOW MUCH DOES IT COST US THE TAXPAYERS?
From Wiki:
...Congress found that repetitive-loss properties cost the taxpayer $200 million annually...Since 1978, NFIP have paid more then $38 BILLION in claims. More then 40% of the claims have been to residents of Lousianna"
And best of all this from Mr Hypocrisy himself - GOP Senator David Vitter that Social Conservative - Family Values guy - who loves the Whore Houses of New Orleans - and gets re-elected by the conservative GOP voters of Louisiana.
If we're depending on this GOP to save us - we are sooo fucked!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
More proof this GOP is all about BIG GOVERNMENT - they won't even seat Ron Paul Delegates at their convention.
Hey Tyler, how about a separate thread on this...if your a true believer in Ron Paul you will.
http://blogs.lclark.edu/hart-landsberg/2012/08/12/the-election-and-the-e...
Wait, you mean in order for consumers to consume, they actually have to have, you know, money?
You gotta be fucking kidding me.
... and making money every trade.
oh and it gets better. anyone see the article last night from bubblevision stating.. "Gas prices are hight because consumers more upbeat"........serious. You cant make this shit up. Keep urinating down your leg CNBS.. the day will come when the lights will be off your set. I cant wait!! It will be sweet victory over one more complete FRAUD!
Why should the middle class have any hope?
- Endless wars that the public has no ability to affect, kills their children and murders innocents in foreign countries
- Wall Street criminals stealing their money
- Ever increasing taxes at all levels
- An out of control, growing and corrupted federal government that decrees itself dictatorial powers through executive orders
- A growing dependency on the government and inability to affect one's own destiny
- A surveylance society where the government considers the people it governs as the enemy
- Continual government sponsored terrorism on its own people
- A mainstream media that is locked into continually spewing government and Wall Street lies and propaganda
- A steadily declining number of jobs and employed people. The unemployment rate declines only when the the workforce SUPPOSEDLY declines.
- A pervasive environment of government secrecy and paranoia
- A increasing numbers of laws and the persecution of middle class US citizens accompanied by the total lawlessness and lack of the rule of law where it would apply to elitists cronies.
- Steady MASSIVELY increasing inflation in those areas that most affect people (excluding housing), their: food, energy, healthcare and education expenses.
- Elected representatives who only serve themselves
- Police forces that have become more and more militarized and increasingly hostile to the people who pay their salaries and expect them to serve and protect
- A destruction of the US manufacturing base and ability to support the needs of its citizens
- A destruction of the USA Republic, the consitution that protects the right of the people and civil law
We got change. Where is the hope?
Yup, that about sums it up. In the back of people's minds, they know we've built the so called recovery on a foundation of sand.
The markets keep going higher on exports to China to build more empty cities.
Doesn't matter. Bernanke and the Federal Reserve doves will keep feeding the bots with printed money to keep the stock market up. The Fed can no longer help the 99% so they figure maybe the 1% will go out and buy more and some crumbs will fall to the 99%.
As long as the banksters are investing the fed funds into the stock market and it keeps going up Benny Bernanke and the doves are happy.
There is no doubt that the 99% and the country can be helped into recovery. But to do that, the elitists have to be brought under control and balance must be restored. The question, if any, is "how to do that". It cannot be done arbitrarily... however there are ample paths to recovery if elitist ability to use money for corruptive purposes and control the rule of law was taken away. The next step would be to take away the money and power that the elitists garnered through illegal means (illegal by a standard that implies fairness, NOT equality and NOT the laws that they have purchased to protect themselves... civil law, damage done, compensation paid). Equal protection under the law.
However, the recovery of the USA works against the elitist globalist plans for global domination of a global slave society that is of a size that they can control.
A lot of we "elitist globalists" in the 10 or 15 percent just below the one percent are angrier than anybody else at this point.
In fact, the current "one percent" - being totally Self-Anointed - includes far too many poorly-educated, unsophisticated, and utterly Nihilist young creeps, many of them - again - allied formally or informally with HFTs and in some cases Organized Crime.
When they are finally sent packing - a worldwide Tobin Tax on currency trading and many kinds of derivatives would help greatly - those of us in the below-the-one-percent Investor Class will be a whole lot happier.
What this shows is how few "consumers" - i.e. those not formally allied with hedge funds - there are IN the market these days, Poopsie.
For example, this is now the FIFTH day Yahoo Finance is closed to non-Botnets, meaning that it is effectively a propaganda-spewing, rather than an interactive, site.
And since ALL Botnet propaganda is from the Short side, I don't think this - and all the other coddling of market Shorts by Internet financial sites, including this one - helps much with "consumer confidence." Or for that matter, business confidence.
Once again, we either have actual markets, or we have computer games rigged to favor the deepest pockets and darkest pools.
Markets have become dysfunctional, because they don't have enough non-hedgie participants.
Far from this being GOOD for the hedgies or the banks or the ETFs or anybody else, it is very, very bad - a warning for the entire financial services industry.
And now the Ninnies shut down Yahoo to human participation! Very smart - NOT.
Yahoo finance is a complete embarrasment. In fact yhoo in the aggregate is an embarrasment.. Missy has her work cut out but hey what does she care. she can still run "snookie had a baby" stories and still make some nice coin on her stock options.
"Dick Bove: Ignore Fiscal Cliff, Buy Stocks" and just going to yhoo finance for a laugh we get this gem. I didnt make this up....Yea yahoo dribble in your pants. Pal up with the blowhorn for more lies and propaganda and outright bullshit
I'm in the Happy Group (notice I did not say "optimistic").
Canned beans, eggs and sardines (my staples) are only up 120%.
Dark chocolate, however, is up over 200%.
I'll be less "Happy" when these items soar another 100% (or reduce in size 50%) which I am sure they will do in the near future as M3 picks up and the low grade QE keeps humming along, billions per week.
I would like to replace the FED's mandates of Unemployment and growth with Price Stability. And, I would like to replace the current CPI with the 1980's model.
SUCK IT.
Since the vast majority don't have any direct link to the market apart from their very far off pensions, it is hardly surprising high stock prices make no difference to the ordinary slave, but the ChairSatan has no comprehension of such things
how many consumers own (or even watch) stocks?