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Despite Revision, Philly Fed Misses Expectations As Outlook Nears Cyclical Peak
As usual benchmark revisions have saved the day for the headlines on the Philly Fed print. Expectations for the data was a 10.3 and it came at 7.3, a definitive miss to expectations, but of course thanks to revisions this rise to 7.3 (from 6.8 revised) is heralded (in a short-lived manner) as evidence of improvement. Under the covers though, things aren't so rosy. New Orders and Shipments dropped notably, number of employees was merely flat and while restocking seems to be occurring modestly (inventories improved) they still printed negative. On the six-months ahead outlook, expectations are for lower prices received but everything else reflects the hope-infused perception of steady growth - especially the notable rise in capex (as the diffusion index nears its cyclical peaks). Initial market reaction is negative to the miss.
The six-month ahead outlook for Philly Fed is at very high 'hope' levels.
Chart: Bloomberg
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Beats Expectations?
Great post! There is something more ominous going on.
I posted this earlier. Despite the hoopla that initial job claims fell. look closely at the data. While IJC were lower than previous first week IJC last week, 2nd week IJC and CJC are actually the same as they were in 2010 and 2011 for the 2nd week. This is improvement in the jobs market?
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/
Fewer people fired because there are fewer people to fire. Bullish!
Negative reaction lasted 10 minutes... lol
"It was priced in."
Said James Cramer nonchalantly as he puffed a skinny cigar. He waved his hand above his head.
"It's all priced in."
He actually said this morning on CNBC something like
"People don't want to dig deep into the numbers of Goldman, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America" while acknowledging their results are shaky
Party On Garth!
Mutual funds seeing inflow, "smart money" flowing out on inst. flow desks. Its switcheroo time in the roach motel.
I used take zerohedge a lot more seriously before I noticed serious bias when it came to these weekly reports: ZH never fails to only expound on ambiguously negative data and ignore the positives. A behavior which can only be objectively classified as bias. I am sorry to say it but I just can't take this blog more seriously than the mainstream outlets it decries.
So long ZHers,
-Zfinx
ZH is light-years ahead of the mainstream financial media.
Would we all like to see this market get the swift kick in the balls it so richly deserves? Absolutely. I don't mind that stories have the "just fucking FALL already" tone in them, because dammit - the merry-go-round is going to stop spinning sooner or later.
If you noticed the slant, why not adapt? Is it really that difficult to select articles you'd rather read instead of taking your ball and going home? Do you really think you'll get better information from the momentum/alpha chasers?
You're free to express a preference, of course. I just can't fathom what you'd consider a 'better' site for financial purposes.
ZH without the gloom and doom would just suck.