Deutsche Bank: "The Spanish Recapitalization Is Not Working" - A Market Shock Is Required

Tyler Durden's picture




 

This weekend, everyone's attention will be on the Greek elections, however it is Spain that has now become the "fulcrum security" of Europe. As such, events in Greece are merely a catalyst that will set off a chain of events that will have an impact not only on Spain, but on all of Europe, and thus, the world.

As we pointed out last week after the Spanish bailout announcement, based on a preliminary analysis which had been compiled by Deutsche Bank's europhiles hours before the formal announcement, and one which just happened to be a carbon-copy of what was proposed as the 'final (and failed) Spanish solution', it appears that the events in Europe are if not orchestrated by the largest German bank, then certainly receiving part-time advice.

Which is why we were somewhat disturbed to read Gilles Moec's summary this morning, which points out the patently obvious: "Spain recapitalization: it’s not working." Whether it is that Europe's brightest minds forgot about the threat of subordination (promptly reminded by Zero Hedge hours after the formal announcement), and that the scars of the Greek cramdown are still fresh in the private sector's mind, it does not matter: as DB says: "Unfortunately, the market reaction was clearly negative, with Spanish 10 year rate brushing past 7% for the first time since 1996. Two main elements probably explain the market reaction: first, the increase in public debt triggered by the recapitalization whose cost will stay on the sovereign’s balance sheet under the current rules); second the seniority attached to ESM loans, if this scheme is used as the final channel for the EU loan instead of the EFSF."

Yes, it is "unfortunate" that Spain's bailout plan was poorly planned, organized and executed. It is not unfortunate that some are still left who can do simple math and call out Europe's failed plans. Which brings us to the present, where we find that even Deutsche Bank has given up hope for interim solutions, having realized that the market will no longer accept transitory, feeble arrangements. Instead DB is now formally calling for a big bang resolution, one coming from the ECB. Here is the punchline: "ECB has room for manoeuvre, but needs political cover for a ‘big’ policy" or said otherwise, "A shock is required to get a liquidity response." In other words: Europe's only real hope for even a stop gap solution... is a wholesale market crash, not surprisingly the very same conclusion that Citi reached on May 19 when they warned that only Crossover (XO) at 1000 bps or wider could push Europe into acting...

Basically stated, anything less than a controlled market crash, one that finally gets the ECB involved with Germany's permission of course, merely pushes the market higher on nothing but hope of an intervention that said market lift makes even more improbable, as now both Citi and DB admit, which can and will lead to an uncontrolled market collapse, one from which not even the ECB will be able to extricate Europe.

In this light, will Greece simply be the start of the much overdue "controlled demolition", that will bring the ECB out of hibernation, that is paradoxically instrumental in avoiding an uncontrolled demolition, where not even the ECB will have any powers left to prevent a collapse?

Here is how Deutsche Bank sets the strawman - on the recapitalization, the market is wrong, and our advice was, well, right:

The statement by the German finance minister on Monday that he found find an ESM solution “more efficient” may have rekindled among investors the fear that the “Greek blueprint” would be replicated for Spain, with the private sector left to bear the brunt of any restructuring.

 

We think that the risk to Spain’s public debt sustainability, even after a EUR100bn recapitalization effort, would remain manageable under what we consider realistic assumptions on growth and interest rates (see FE Europe 8 June). Spanish public debt would remain significantly lower than in Italy and not so far above that of France, for instance.

There is always a but. And in this case, it is yet another event out of left field that will likely send spreads soaring even more than before:

However, even if we think that the long-term issues surrounding Spanish public debt are overstated, meeting the government’s refinancing needs in the next few months is getting increasingly difficult, in our view, since the ‘war chest’ accumulated by Spanish  banks in the LTROs of December and February is drying up. At peak, in March 2012, Spanish banks had accumulated EUR 88.7bn on the ECB’s deposit facility. This has fallen to EUR 36.8bn in May. Spanish banks have committed to lend EUR 35bn to the regions this year to help them pay down their arrears. They need to refinance c.EUR 80bn of their own debt before the end of the year. Taking the slack from nonresidents reducing their exposure to the Spanish sovereign is going to stretch their resources further. By March 2012 (latest available data), non residents had reduced their holding of Spanish public debt to EUR 158.7bn (31.6% of the total), down EUR 6.4bn in a month and down EUR 26.1bn in a year. The valve of adjustment under the current circumstances would be to cut lending to the private sector further, thus sending domestic demand into more contraction.

In other words, "the money, it's a gone." Needless to say, the bank that will do everything to avoid the market's attention being focused on its capitalization and leverage ratio, already has a follow up plan, after its first one failed:

To unlock the Spanish situation, we think that three ingredients should be envisaged:

  1. Another round of long term liquidity injection by the ECB. Even if the political conditions are not met at this stage (see last section of this article), we believe that this would be the only possibility for local banks to continue to support their sovereign. Further tweaks in the collateral rules would probably be needed to ensure that banks could take full advantage of this additional round. In our view, to try to incentivize banks to re-start lending to the private sector, the rules could be changed to allow only recently originated loans to corporations, for instance.
  2. Announcing recourse to the EFSF rather than the ESM to recapitalize Spanish banks. This could be seen by the market as a sign that seniority is not a major preoccupation of the Europeans when dealing with Spanish bank recapitalization. This would entail a negotiation with Finland on a collateralization of its support which, given the size of the Finnish contribution, is manageable, in our view.
  3. Ideally, the most powerful signal would be to open the possibility for direct recapitalization of banks by the euro rescue mechanism. This could not be done via the EFSF, but is still doable for the ESM, either via a unanimous change in the list of instruments by the board (article 19 procedure), or via a revision in the treaty – which still has not been ratified by Germany - if the legal basis for an “internal modification” is too weak.

Fair enough, "Door 1" it is, as further confirmed by yesterday's statements out of Draghi, and various media leaks, that a European ZIRP may be just around the corner. There is, however, a problem with getting another LTRO out of the ECB. As Moec says, "ECB has room for manoeuvre, but needs political cover for a ‘big’ policy."

Again, from DB:

With the market unconvinced by the Spanish bank recap package and near-term prospects of an ERF unconvincing, the market will be looking to the ECB as a last resort to restore some order.

 

There were mixed messages from ECB President Draghi’s comments on Friday, 15 June. In his address to the annual ECB Watchers conference, he claimed the objectives of the 3Y LTRO have been “broadly met”, in particular the easing of supply constraints on private credit, but pledged to provide liquid “where needed”. He claimed economic stabilization remains the ECB’s baseline, while at the same time pointing to the weak data since the baseline was agreed and “serious downside risks” to growth. He claimed that the ECB cannot “fill holes” in the EU’s process of mending heterogeneity, but that the ECB “partly responded” to heterogeneity with the enlarged collateral pool, specifically the credit claims collateral.

And here we get to the crux of the issue, the one that has inverted the expectations outcome out of Greece, whereby if Syriza wins, the market's Pavlovian dogs are now fully expecting a global central bank intervention, aka the Bank. Should Syriza disappoint and Greece end up ungoverned, or paradoxically get a pro-Europe government, the lack of response will likely result in a risk off mood come Monday especially since the entire upward move in the past week was purely short covering on fears of monetary policy response:

A shock is required to get a liquidity response

 

Draghi discussed the concept of “adequate liquidity” on Friday. He differentiated between normal times, when the volume of liquidity is determined by banks’ obligatory reserve requirements and other autonomous factors, and times of financial instability, when the central bank must counteract bank funding market tensions and “systemic consequences”. Financial stability is an ECB responsibility. Compared to the comments from Draghi at the 6 June press conference, when the hurdles to more liquidity seemed high, there is more of a sense of ‘readiness to act’. That this message came right at the start of Draghi’s address to the ECB Watchers conference implies the importance of the ‘readiness’ message. The full allotment regime remains in place. Banks can get as much liquidity as they require for one week and for three months. The 3Y LTRO Draghi describes as having “broadly met” its objectives, specifically, easing credit constraints. He admitted it would take longer to judge full success (a flow of credit to the private sector), but demand may be weak. We have highlighted the importance of the next ECB Bank Lending Survey on 25 July of the ECB’s judgment regarding the need for additional vLTROs. It is possible in the context of more disorderly market scenarios that the ECB pre-empts the BLS to reengage the vLTRO policy which has, in Draghi’s view, already ‘broadly’ worked in similar market conditions.

And there you have it: if have more "disorderly market scenarios" read market crash, but not terminal crash, then ECB brings out the firepower.

Anything less, and everyone will be disappointed as it merely enforces the continuation of a now failing, and obvious to all, status quo, one which sees Spanish bond yields leaking ever wider, until Italy too finds itself beyond the dreaded 7% barrier.

Will Greece be the catalyst to bring on this much needed response from the Central Banks? Or will Greece "muddle through" for however many weeks before it needs another bailout, and/or finally throws in the towel, while the global central banks do nothing? 

Find out on Sunday night.

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Sat, 06/16/2012 - 16:27 | 2532613 Umh
Umh's picture

I've never heard a better reason to buy something with my money!

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 10:18 | 2531959 aleph0
aleph0's picture

"I believe they know what they are doing"

 

... & Greg Palast seems to know too : 

http://www.gregpalast.com/the-globalizer-who-came-in-from-the-cold/

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 19:08 | 2532762 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Oh, that's so 2001. 

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 10:03 | 2531931 decon
decon's picture

I don't think they're clueless.  The battle was lost a long time ago and these are all just rear guard actions they're cobbling together on the fly.

These politicians and technocrats are like water, they always take the path of least resistance.  There is no long term plan or strategy.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 19:21 | 2532783 sadmamapatriot
sadmamapatriot's picture

I have been thinking about this a lot. It is tempting to think there is a big conspiracy and there are certainly those who are conspiring against us. But seriously, how competent are these centralized masterminds? We have never seen centralized planners before to be competent. Why would there now be a secret central planner that magically is? I think they are trying to control us and manipulate us for the furtherance of their grand schemes but ultimately they will get sucked in and defeated by their own failed ambitions. Remember, it is was just a little scared old man behind the green curtain. That is not to say they won't fight like hell to stay on top but they have no guarantee of success.

Of course this might be heresy for many ZH'ers. So, explain it to me. How are these secret central planners more competent than any who have gone before?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 20:00 | 2535108 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

I think the question of competency hinges on what, exactly, they're actually supposed to be doing.

If they're supposed to be helping to save the world economy, then no, competency is seriously lacking.

If they're supposed to be draining all the remaining wealth from the system into dark pools while leaving a tarp of worthless paper to cover the hole, then I see a very high level of competency.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:12 | 2531847 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Price Shock maybe. Morons.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:12 | 2531848 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Now what was Deutsche Bank's derivatives exposure again ( in tens of trillions of €)? They are f***ed without the ECB teats

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:17 | 2531857 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

What we fucking need, is to stop fucking gibber jabbering on about the fucking shit we face and do something about it.

That takes balls brothers, and since we are all internet tough guys, it wont be any of us eh?

Prepare accordingly bitchezs.  And here cameron, fuck you sideways you fucking cunt.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:23 | 2531866 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Balls Brothers, isn't that a swillery?

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:43 | 2531897 Chaffinch
Chaffinch's picture

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Sat, 06/16/2012 - 10:13 | 2531949 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

overuse of profanity

but balls brothers is fucking funny

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 10:16 | 2531955 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Junked you just for having a Facebook account.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 14:06 | 2532406 Chaffinch
Chaffinch's picture

I haven't got a Facebook account - that was cut and pasted from Balls Brothers website - junk them!

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 15:35 | 2532545 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Junked you for being defensive. Lighten up, have fun with it.
Million Dollar Bonus and MaxiLopez consider getting junked a badge of honor. All the best. AB

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 14:58 | 2532479 Chaffinch
Chaffinch's picture

I guess this is what they call 'friendly fire' huh?
Go ahead, junk away...

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 13:14 | 2532314 LULZBank
LULZBank's picture

Dont be talkin 'bout balls and actions. Just stack the PMs and cuss out whoever you think is responsible for your misery.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:20 | 2531861 bigwavedave
bigwavedave's picture

---This weekend, everyone's attention will be on the Greek elections, however it is Spain that has now become the "fulcrum security" of Europe. As such, events in Greece are merely a catalyst that will set off a chain of events that will have an impact not only on Spain, but on all of Europe, and thus, the world. And would be the end of Deutsche Bank and of course my crappy parasitic job.

 


Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:21 | 2531864 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

It is amazing how many words are needed by these banster geniuses to describe what can be distilled into a few words: lost trust and zero confidence.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:32 | 2531873 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I'm sure a clever picture would solve that verbiage issue : Lost thrust and zero penetration/gratification. 

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:34 | 2531881 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

what time zone are you in Banzai?

unusual you're joining the Euro ZH'ers here or are you just up bright and early!

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 10:22 | 2531964 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

i think he partied all night with LiLo

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 11:00 | 2532010 AssFire
AssFire's picture

falak pema

What you described sounds like a dog fucking air.

I think that pretty well describes the recapitalization effort as a whole.

It is a dry hump.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 12:06 | 2532192 falak pema
falak pema's picture

At least the dog has a cat to fall back on or a bone to chew out his boner...these guys are into dry humping a tornado. I like that picture! Bernanke riding a tornado, a twister,  like that guy on his bomb in Dr Strangelove! 

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:42 | 2531896 Tao 4 the Show
Tao 4 the Show's picture

Yes, but even smelly brews served up by fake Shamans are more desirable by most people than the truth. MF Global was barely an hors d'oeuvre.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:51 | 2531906 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

MF Global to be fair was an after-shock 

2008 with over-leveraged gambling junkie bankers going bust was a forerunner for MFG

and here we are again this week with the British and European banking (gambling) systems being bailed out yet again ..if only Corzine had timed his collapse to this month he might have got a bailout too as his grounds are identical in merit 

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 10:38 | 2531981 Unbezahlbar
Unbezahlbar's picture

Banker Bonuses and commissions and Kickbacks on each $100 billion sovereign bailout?

Anyone know this amount? Any time a few Billions moves a handful of bankers must grab Millions out of the stream of that transaction...the flow of money.    Anyone know who grabs it?   Amounts?  That would be news.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 15:29 | 2532532 walküre
walküre's picture

Yes. That is why the Anglo-American Banking cabal wants Europe to "FIX" itself. The bonds are issued under English Law.

More printing means higher bonuses and more fees for these guys in The City.

Just pull the plug and fuck the whole lot. Let 'em all squirm and weazel until they get squashed under the boot.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:45 | 2531869 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

not sure where the "if" is in the ECB taking action

maybe this Deutsche Bank report was drafted before yesterday but Draghi stated yesterday he would provide (print) whatever is needed to support the European banks... by implication that would suggest sovereigns too yes/no?

so German Govt approval must already have been granted to the ECB for a printing orgy (Merkals stern fiscal discipline mask has slipped, oops!)

is this Deutsche Bank smoke and mirrors or am i missing something?!!

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:29 | 2531872 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

Collapse for a decade, then the reset takes a decade more. That's what history says. Human patterns change in this fashion. The depths of despair must be reached by the majority. There are always a few who manipulate this, and a few others who see past and try to bypass it.

We might be that last group, if we're lucky and noble and stuff.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:29 | 2531874 solidus
solidus's picture

Wait, help me to understand this.  We need a market crash to provoke a "liquidity response" so that the market can go higher?

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:46 | 2531901 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

Crazy stuff, huh.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:48 | 2531905 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Yes.

Hope that helped.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:52 | 2531911 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Yes, its the latest in algorithmic moneterist theory and whackademics world wide have approved it as a long lasting and viable wealth generator for all.

Of course the price for this "running in place model" is the destruction of the very currency in which you supposedly make a profit...but hey, they're very proud of it and seem quite pleased with the results so far...lol.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:58 | 2531922 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Perpetual motion machines everywhere. The global power concentration effort is lifting itself up by its bootstraps.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 10:13 | 2531948 nmewn
nmewn's picture

The Levitating Leviathans...lol...for their next trick, they'll pull themselves out of their own hats!

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 10:06 | 2531937 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Yes. (Bwahahahha- evil laugh from "reptilians").

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 10:32 | 2531975 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

no longer need the crash.....just bring on the liquidity repsonse

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 12:29 | 2532236 Turin Turambar
Turin Turambar's picture

A "controlled" crash will give the central bankers the political cover to make an even larger power grab.  When things are going to hell in a handbasket, the masses will coalesce around just about anybody with a solution - real or imagined, and they don't have to be in the majority.  Many times it's the most organized minority.  This is exactly how Hitler came to power, and there are lefties all around salivating for a crisis, so they can take a shot at seizing control.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 15:36 | 2532548 walküre
walküre's picture

Lefties and Righties - to be fair.

Both being financed from the same sources. Divide and conquer has worked so well over centuries. Why stop now?

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 14:09 | 2532410 vh070
vh070's picture

Looks like we're going to get it too: Shock and Awhhh. . . shit!

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:36 | 2531883 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

How abt just letting insolvent banks go bust, Spain exit euro.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:41 | 2531891 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Greece's plight will be used by TPTB to suit their agenda and they already have their plan in hand.  So bring on the controlled or uncontrolled collapse, there will be some tasty tidbits for the picking either way.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:58 | 2531921 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Never waste a good crisis.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:42 | 2531895 digalert
digalert's picture

So they need some sort of "False Flag"?

I can think of some countries, one in particular, that are very adept in these operations...

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:44 | 2531898 BennyBoy
BennyBoy's picture

DB and C are looking to save their Spanish investments.

First, crash. (For drama, fear, pretense)

Second, "save" Spain by bailing out DB and C investments at 100% or 105%.

Third screw Spain for years to come.

Or have Spain go BK now and screw the bankers.

Oh wait, the bankers are in charge, BK won't happen.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:51 | 2531909 Cursive
Cursive's picture

 

In this light, will Greece simply be the start of the much overdue "controlled demolition", that will bring the ECB out of hibernation, that is paradoxically instrumental in avoiding an uncontrolled demolition, where not even the ECB will have any powers left to prevent a collapse?

When the big down draft starts, they will be able to control it about as well as the TEPCO hands are controlling Fukushima.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 10:30 | 2531974 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

This is where you know they have to be narcissistic delusional. The attempt to control it IS the problem. I think your analogy is on the money but I am not sure which one has graver consequences. 

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 10:54 | 2532001 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Might as well throw in sociopath too while we're at it.

Sat, 06/16/2012 - 09:56 | 2531919 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Once Hyperinflation starts, and the gov. starts printing those bigger notes, don't you think that folks know what is happening? I am trying to get my head around this. I don't like conspiracy stuff, but man, it seems like they are doing it on purpose. 

When you start, you must know there is only one outcome. And the people must know.

The prices I am paying for food are going up scary fast in my estimation. But then again, I watch closely. I feel the slide NOW.

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