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Deutsche Bank To The Rescue: "Will PrimeX Deliver The Next Big Short Miracle Many Of Us Missed In 2007?"
From Deutsche Bank:
The PrimeX indices have experienced a sharp decline since the beginning of October despite an 11% rally of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, the biggest two-week rally since 2009. The price drop can be viewed as a catch-up to the overall market selloffs following investors’ growing fear over the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, increasing likelihood of a global recession, and a weak US housing market. The Fitch’s report on the prime RMBS sector published on October 5 and a subsequent article by ZeroHedge on October 7 fueled the panic selloffs in the last few days, during which we have received far more inquiries about PrimeX than the combined inquiries about PrimeX and ABX over the last two years. It appears to us that many investors have suddenly turned their attention to the PrimeX. Investors from around the world have been wondering whether the PrimeX of 2011 will repeat the ABX miracle of 2007.
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People don't want to care about the next boogie man in credit right now.
They just want to chase beta and press the BUY button the second they hear anything remotely positive on Europe.
People? Did you mean machines?
Machines are people...you know...the same way corporations are people.
"I'll believe Machines are people when Texas executes one."
Didn't they execute one when they put Perry on the Campaign trail?
My dad's lawnmower wouldn't start, so he beat it with a sledge hammer and set it on fire.... Does that count?
"we'll take what we can get...."
I'm not going to lie. I find it amazing how this site hasnt been shut down yet. Amazing.
Don't think it will be long now before some disgruntled wack job torches an HFT office....
These are not the droids you are looking for.
They tried "the bigger the lie the more they believe you" in 2008 didn't they. And now the finest Army this nation has probably ever fielded is being forced to come home "defeated.". No worries though! It's all legal!
"They tried "the bigger the lie the more they believe you" in 2008 didn't they."
I thought they tried that one in 2001. With flying success as I recall.
So Deutsche mentioned Zerohedge as being a reason for sell off. Hilarious!
Some props to the boys at the "Hedge"
For macro news they're cutting edge
While MSM lies
The Tylers will rise
DON'T FUCK WITH THE BOYS AT THE HEDGE!!!
ZH: fueling panic selloffs since 2001
I believe you have confused ZH with the FED...
Must have missed those first eight years.
Well, after their criminal acts have been exposed, I would sell too!
Sunshine is a great disinfectant.
III
DB covering ZH. Tyler has just entered the limelight and tread on the red carpet.
Would Tyler warm to the idea of regular MSM coverage? An interview with the real Tyler Durden?
We have no use for the MSM. Or any M.
mmm, this is another of the "they manipulated the market" memes that SocGen Todd bod on the video was also peddling. It means they're taking aim.
ZH as the new terrorist bogeyman.
Amen with a Hail Mary on top.
How 'bout M of James Bond fame? I'd like to think they'd make a movie about me...BUT THEY ALREADY HAVE!
He's too busy starring in The Legends of the Fall.
Worst idea ever. The most powerful thing they can do is to keep on keeping on -- no public appearences, no "media" coverage, none of it. Just this.
Someone really needs to regulate these bloggers.
Anyone employed by the FSI calling for the "regulation" of financial bloggers needs a nice, long, chat with a piece of 2" X 4".
Time to start taking names.
So . . . will ECB now buy Prime Ex ala Fed's support of MBS here back then?
Here's one worth following:
This story from Bloomberg just hit the wires this morning. Bank of America is shifting derivatives in its Merrill investment banking unit to its depository arm, which has access to the Fed discount window and is protected by the FDIC.
This means that the investment bank's European derivatives exposure is now backstopped by U.S. taxpayers. Bank of America didn't get regulatory approval to do this, they just did it at the request of frightened counterparties. Now the Fed and the FDIC are fighting as to whether this was sound. The Fed wants to "give relief" to the bank holding company, which is under heavy pressure.
http://dailybail.com/home/holy-bailout-federal-reserve-now-backstopping-75-trillion-of.html
Bank Of America Forces Depositors To Backstop Its $53 Trillion Derivative Book To Prevent A Few Clients From Departing The Bank
Been busy but should have known that one wouldn't slip by! Cheers!
I would think this move by BAC will have everyone with over $250,000 deposited at the bank
quickly transfer unprotected funds somewhere else.
You really believe the shit about protection? If the SHTF the protection covering is meaningless. Better to cover your ass before and hold some physicals.
TD, where's the CFTC story?
Bart Chilton on Canadian financial tv. Where's the BlowHorn?
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip551797
CFTC decision will be delayed, appealed and overturned.
I'm pretty sure it passed today. And goes into effect 60 days afer the CFTC defines the word 'swap.' Seriously.
CFTC Votes 3-2 to Approve Limits on Commodity Speculationhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-10-18/cftc-votes-3-2-to-approve-limits-on-commodity-speculation.html
It did pass today after 3 years of Chilton pressing for it. I just thought it deserved some kind of mention considering how much gold and silver manipulation coverage we've had here over the last few years. I didn't see anything.
That's all right. Makes blowing up the entire state of Illinois all the better. This ones for you mister never let a crisis go to waste! Now go Fukushima yourself!
This is significant and worth following. If the number of contracts is limited, would funds such as SLV or GLD be forced to liquidate any of their holdings. Will oil/commodities decrease in value if institutional holders have to liquidate. And if they do will that set the all clear signal for a renewed QE3 effort under the premise that inflation is not a risk.
ZH,
you guys called it, good job! This has been under the rader for awhile
The haven't called a damn thing since I got here! And if they miss by a mile yet again I'll love 'em even more!
Tyler Durden are MSM now?
I am not following the comment about "ABX miracle of 2007" can someone explain, please?
F*ck Deutsche bank! Crappy ass wanna be hedge fund. I hope they go bust when the Eastern EZ and Germany property markets crumble.
This report is a POS on so many levels. NO ONE, especially the authors, has a model that can predict the response of mortgage borrowers over a deep and sustained house price decline. They seem in love with the predictive power of their loan level model - they shouldn't be.
Right.
on a long enough timeline, they finally notice you
It is the internet's fault. How professional. Crash the system already and let's find out what the real value of everyone's labor is. Bring it.
Got skills? Farmer, land owner, welder, plumber, electician, carpenter, mechanic, Paramedic, Nurse, lover of all metals.....I, or should I say we, will be fine.......how about all of you???? Bring the playingfield, we'll bring the A game.
Got skills? Farmer, land owner, welder, plumber, electician, carpenter, mechanic, Paramedic, Nurse, lover of all metals.....I, or should I say we, will be fine.......how about all of you???? Bring the playingfield, we'll bring the A game.
Yup, that'd be me too (we), but add engineer, programmer, machinist, gunsmith, chemist, physicist. Specialization is for insects.
Nothing much has changed in this blatant and prolonged worldwide financial scam since the Fed’s inception in 1914, except that the entire world is now sinking into a world depression… collapsing without sound money, a schizophrenic globe stripped of national independence, torn asunder by internationalist central bankers who steal sovereign assets and identity through usury, financial manipulation of the currencies and markets, unfair taxation, inflation, war and totalitarianism.
“It is one of the least understood realities of modern history that many of America’s most prominent political and financial figures—then as now—have been willing to sacrifice the best interests of the United States in order to further their goal of creating a one-world government,” says G. Edward Griffin in “The Creature from Jekyll Island.”
The same forces, says Griffin, were responsible for America’s involvement in both world wars to provide the economics and military resources England needed to survive.
Montagu Norman and Benjamin Strong, the key central bankers who caused the Great Depression in the 30s by deliberately creating massive inflation in the U.S. in the 20s, “crisscrossed the Atlantic on numerous occasions to consult on their plans for controlling the world economy” - all in strict secrecy.
In America, this caused “an outflow of gold, a loss of foreign markets, unemployment and speculation in the stock market, all of which were factors that propelled America into the crash of 1929 and the great depression of the 30s.”
So reports Griffin.
Then, as now, the central bankers enlisted the manipulation of other key central bankers to deliberately create inflation in their countries to save the English economy from depression and help it meet its financial obligations – Hjalmar Schacht of Germany and Emile Moreau of France.
Strong held the Federal Reserve under his thumb in the 1920s; Governor of the NY Fed for 14 years until his death, taking office in 1914. He was, according to G. Edward Griffin, “the forerunner of the internationalists who have operated the Federal Reserve ever since. He viewed the United States as but one piece in a complex world financial structure, and what was good for the world was good for America,” regardless of the damage at home. “And, oh yes, what was good for England was good for the world!”
Norman was head of the Bank of England during the first years of the Federal Reserve and was reported to have told William Wentworth aboard ship in 1929 that there soon was going to be a “shake-out” in the U.S. financial markets.
Strong acknowledged in a letter in the late twenties to Parker Gilbert, the American Agent for Reparations, that the two great surges of monetary expansion in the 20s caused by the System’s demand for government bonds and acceptances that pushed interest rates down and inflation up to eat its way into the purchasing power of the dollar, was “undertaken with the well-recognized hazard that we were liable to encounter a big speculation and some expansion of credit… Our course was perfectly obvious.”
On October 24, 1929, Black Thursday, the crash began; on October 29, Black Tuesday, it was official. The insiders were forewarned, and the rest is ongoing history…
Yes, nothing has changed...except now, Zero Hedge has stepped onto the stage. And the play may never be the same again.
All quite correct save for one thing: There was no "outlflow" of gold, there was a massive inflow to the U.S.. France was strong during the period by pegging the Franc at 25 to 1; low enough to rule the Europen economy whilst Norman wrung his hands over how to return England to dominance as it gold reserves dwindled, and Germany just couldn't buy a break on reparations that started high and never went low enough for their GDP to cover it. Schacht was a bitter and singular minded man over this one thing.
Many thought that had Strong lived long enough to act in 1931, that the split decsion that left the Fed inactive then, to backstop the banks, might have been averted, instead the backstopping didn't occur, just a lot of indecision about just what the hell to do. It wasn't until FDR stepped in the week after his swearing in, and did the bank holiday proposed as Hoover was packing up, that a moment of calm prevailed. We'll never know whether Strong could have pulled it off or not.
The Great Depression bagan in earnest at the fall of a single bank in Vienna, in 1931. Fear of the banks, and the great exit to the more sublime bank(s) of Sealy, Simmons and Kerr were legion.
If I had any coins now, I'd yank them out of BoFA and bury them in a Kerr jar myself, just for the hell of it.
"Lords of Finance," a rather good tale.
.
Did you say "douche bank"
They all are.
People I know are in this cycle and handing back their Real Estate this year - 3 years after Lehman. It really sucks...........
Totally illiquid index that nobody cares about. Not the next ABX trade so dont waste your time
some blog v. douche-banksters, BiCheZ!
EUR is sitting on the 50ma, that is bearish, plus the legless rally last session equals Asia will sell off.
Hey from 10 years ago, REVOLUTION CALLING -Queensryche http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7avDRrjtgy0
For a price I'd do about anything
Except pull the trigger
For that I'd need a pretty good cause
Then I heard of Dr. X
The man with the cure
Just watch the television
Yeah, you'll see there's something going on
Got no love for politicians
Or that crazy scene in D.C.
It's just a power mad town
But the time is ripe for changes
There's a growing feeling
That taking a chance on a new kind of vision is due
I used to trust the media
To tell me the truth, tell us the truth
But now I've seen the payoffs
Everywhere I look
Who do you trust when everyone's a crook?
Revolution calling
Revolution calling
Revolution calling you
[There's a] Revolution calling
Revolution calling
Gotta make a change
Gotta push, gotta push it on through
I'm tired of all this bullshit
They keep selling me on T.V.
About the communist plan
And all the shady preachers
Begging for my cash
Swiss bank accounts while giving their
Secretaries the slam
They're all in Penthouse now
Or Playboy magazine, million dollar stories to tell
I guess Warhol wasn't wrong
Fame fifteen minutes long
Everyone's using everybody, making the sale
I used to think
That only America's way, way was right
But now the holy dollar rules everybody's lives
Gotta make a million doesn't matter who dies
Revolution calling
Revolution calling
Revolution calling you
[There's a] Revolution calling
Revolution calling
Gotta make a change
Gotta push, gotta push it on through
I used to trust the media
To tell me the truth, tell us the truth
But now I've seen the payoffs
Everywhere I look
Who do you trust when everyone's a crook?
Revolution calling
Revolution calling
Revolution calling you
[There's a] Revolution calling
Revolution calling
Gotta make a change
Gotta push, gotta push it on through
Bonus: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1FL6gVA2hE&feature=related
Zerohedge, taking over the world one corrupt, sleazy, lying, mark to unicorn bank at a time!
What does this mean to pension funds, especially my old friend the ITRA. I just read their latest report, which puts them at 48% funded, after a good year.. Haven't heard much about them here lately, but I realize you are busy with the fed. Any idea who all is exposed to Prime X
For most industrials, pension expense was supposed to be a moderate tailwind in 2012, but with current interest rates, it is now likely to become a meaningful headwind,” wrote William Blair analyst Nick Heymann, in a research note
now DB quoting ZH. Great. Tyler you might become their next CEO, if you plan to take it.
Tyler is too smart to be CEO of DB.
Plus they've never murderd 20 million people. So that's huge experience gap. Not qualified.
Deutche bank has thier own CIA and conduct thier own CIA operations. Though you could just call it a side team of the fed.
Who wants to be the Cheese Eating Oriface of Douche Bank?
Perhaps it's time to stop using the term "legacy media" and instead use the term redundant media or obsolete media?
After all, that's what they are.
If mortgage principle reduction legislation passes that could make shorting PrimeX a losing bet. I thought this idea would go no where but just noticed Martin Feldstein is supporting it. Now he is one conservative economist if I recall correctly.
Whew...at least they assured all the wreckage is priced in....worry off... snark on.
Just think. If MSM told the truth, asked the tough questions, saw through the dis-information and reported it then this blog would never have come to be. It is now the "go to" source for fact, and if not fact, then probing questions.
Jeez, how much manpower does it take to ask the right questions? How do you do it TD?
Simle answer....ZH not owned by corporati
You're confusing capability with willingness. When you work for fuckface. You work for fuckface.
How much money is involved in the surroundings of primex, and not to mention the greater prime market?
Is this big enough to shit on the market?
I wonder hoiw long it will be until the first Wall Street bankster is shot?
Michael A. Crowley, PE is the owner of Crowley & Associates, Inc. and was President and an owner of Crowley, Crisp & Associates, Inc. and Michael A. Crowley, PC. As President of Crowley & Associates, Inc., Mike is a lead designer of water supply, treatment and storage projects, regional sewage lift station design, and residential and commercial site development projects and is responsible for the management of the firm. Mike’s industry background includes over 20 years experience in the civil engineering field inclusive of executive level responsibilities in Marketing and Project Management. Prior to founding Michael A. Crowley, PC, Mike held positions with several engineering firms in North Carolina and Maine. Mike holds a B.S. Degree in Civil Engineering from University of Maine and a Master of Business Administration from Boston College. Mike is a member of the American Water Works Association (AWWA) and holds professional registrations in North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Arkansas, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, Indiana, Maine, Tennessee, Australia, and Trinidad & Tobago, West Indies. Mike is a native of Norridgewock, Maine. The Crowley family resides in Wake Forest. To All My Valued Employees, There have been some rumblings around the office about the future of this company, and more specifically, your job. As you know, the economy has changed for the worse and presents many challenges. However, the good news is this: The economy doesn't pose a threat to your job. What does threaten your job however, is the changing political landscape in this country. Of course, as your employer, I am forbidden to tell you whom to vote for - it is against the law to discriminate based on political affiliation, race, creed, religion, etc. Please vote for who you think will serve your interests the best. However, let me tell you some little tidbits of fact which might help you decide what is in your best interest. First, while it is easy to spew rhetoric that casts employers against employees, you have to understand that for every business owner there is a back story. This back story is often neglected and overshadowed by what you see and hear. Sure, you see me park my Mercedes outside. You saw my big home at last years Christmas party. I'm sure all these flashy icons of luxury conjure up some idealized thoughts about my life. However, what you don't see is the back story. I started this company 12 years ago. At that time, I lived in a 300 square foot studio apartment for 3 years. My entire living space was converted into an office so I could put forth 100% effort into building a company, which by the way, would eventually employ you. My diet consisted of Ramen Pride noodles because every dollar I spent went back into this company. I drove a rusty Toyota Corolla with a defective transmission. I didn't have time to date. Often times, I stayed home on weekends, while my friends went out drinking and partying. In fact, I was married to my business -- hard work, discipline, and sacrifice. Meanwhile, my friends got jobs. They worked 40 hours a week and made a modest $50K a year and spent every dime they earned. They drove flashy cars and lived in expensive homes and wore fancy designer clothes. Instead of hitting Nordstrom's for the latest hot fashion item, I was trolling through the Goodwill store extracting any clothing item that didn't look like it was birthed in the 70's. My friends refinanced their mortgages and lived a life of luxury. I, however, did not. I put my time, my money, and my life into a business --- with a vision that eventually, some day, I too, will be able to afford these luxuries my friends supposedly had. So, while you physically arrive at the office at 9 am, mentally check in at about noon, and then leave at 5 pm, I don't. There is no "off" button for me. When you leave the office, you are done and you have a weekend all to yourself. I unfortunately do not have the freedom. I eat, ****, and breathe this company every minute of the day. There is no rest. There is no weekend. There is no happy hour. Every day this business is attached to me like a 1 day old baby. You, of course, only see the fruits of that garden -- the nice house, the Mercedes, the vacations... You never realize the back story and the sacrifices I've made. Now, the economy is falling apart and I, the guy that made all the right decisions and saved his money, have to bail out all the people who didn't. The people that overspent their paychecks suddenly feel entitled to the same luxuries that I earned and sacrificed a decade of my life for. Yes, business ownership has its benefits but the price I've paid is steep and not without wounds. Unfortunately, the cost of running this business, and employing you, is starting to eclipse the threshold of marginal benefit and let me tell you why: I am being taxed to death and the government thinks I don't pay enough. I have state taxes. Federal taxes. Property taxes. Sales and use taxes. Payroll taxes. Workers compensation taxes. Unemployment taxes. Taxes on taxes. I have to hire a tax man to manage all these taxes and then guess what? I have to pay taxes for employing him. Government mandates and regulations and all the accounting that goes with it, now occupy most of my time. On Oct 15th, I wrote a check to the US Treasury for $288,000 for quarterly taxes. You know what my "stimulus" check was? Zero. Nada. Zilch. The question I have is this: Who is stimulating the economy? Me, the guy who has provided 14 people good paying jobs and serves over 2,200,000 people per year with a flourishing business? Or, the single mother sitting at home pregnant with her fourth child waiting for her next welfare check? Obviously, government feels the latter is the economic stimulus of this country. The fact is, if I deducted (Read: Stole) 50% of your paycheck you'd quit and you wouldn't work here. I mean, why should you? That's nuts. Who wants to get rewarded only 50% of their hard work? Well, I agree which is why your job is in jeopardy. Here is what many of you don't understand .. to stimulate the economy you need to stimulate what runs the economy. Had suddenly government mandated to me that I didn't need to pay taxes, guess what? Instead of depositing that $288,000 into the Washington black-hole, I would have spent it, hired more employees, and generated substantial economic growth. My employees would have enjoyed the wealth of that tax cut in the form of promotions and better salaries. But you can forget it now. When you have a comatose man on the verge of death, you don't defibrillate and shock his thumb thinking that will bring him back to life, do you? Or, do you defibrillate his heart? Business is at the heart of America and always has been. To restart it, you must stimulate it, not kill it. Suddenly, the power brokers in Washington believe the mud of America are the essential drivers of the American economic engine. Nothing could be further from the truth and this is the type of change you can keep. So where am I going with all this? It's quite simple. If any new taxes are levied on me, or my company, my reaction will be swift and simple. I fire you. I fire your co-workers. You can then plead with the government to pay for your mortgage, your SUV, and your child's future. Frankly, it isn't my problem any more. Then, I will close this company down, move to another country, and retire. You see, I'm done. I'm done with a country that penalizes the productive and gives to the unproductive. My motivation to work and to provide jobs will be destroyed, and with it, will be my citizenship. While tax cuts to 95% of America sounds great on paper, don't forget the back story: If there is no job, there is no income to tax. A tax cut on zero dollars is zero. So, when you make decision to vote, ask yourself, who understands the economics of business ownership and who doesn't? Whose policies will endanger your job? Answer those questions and you should know who might be the one capable of saving your job. While the media wants to tell you "It's the economy Stupid" I'm telling you it isn't. If you lose your job, it won't be at the hands of the economy; it will be at the hands of a political hurricane that swept through this country, steamrolled the Constitution, and will have changed its landscape forever. If that happens, you can find me in the South Caribbean sitting on a beach, retired, and with no employees to worry about. Signed, Your boss, Michael A. Crowley, PE Crowley, Crisp & Associates, Inc. Professional Engineers 1906 South Main Street, Suite 122 Wake Forest, NC 27587 Phone: 919.562.8860 x22 Fax: 919.562.8872
My favorite spot is the Abacos. What's yours?
I have said this many times. If I invest $1 million in a business in my country I am the life's blood of the economy. If I make two workers redundant I am outvoted. We live in a society in which those two now ex-employees can now vote themselves all my money by electing politicians with promises of welfare.
My money stays in gold now until such time as I can portect my assets first for my own retirement and then for my family. Nothing more needs to be said...
While I think you're entitled to whine, how are you different from so many of us here who climb the wall of worry every day at work? Not at all. What's the answer?
I can absolutely assure you that getting a job is not nearly as difficult as creating one.
Unless you are a government, that is...
I hope Mr Crowley is smart enough to have reviewed the recent changes to the tax law concerning folks leaving the country. They are very onerous and confiscatory. He needs to start placing assets overseas right away if he is serious about leaving.
Come on down....the water's fine for swimming....the beer is for drinking ! I have one employee....my manservant/body guard Jose ! I pay him $100 pesos for five hours (8 'til 1), a cup of my excellent freshly ground cafe, a hunk of exotic foreign cheese (extra sharp Tillamook) and a pack of duty free USA full flavor, 100 mm cigarettes ! I with hold his daily pay until 1 pm ! Monedas Shrugged 2011 Comedy Jihad Ayn Rand Book Tour
It sounds like you work in an industry that is dependent on government environmental mandates. Everyone is forced to pay for drinking water that gets flushed, sprayed onto lawns, etc. That probably won't last in all places. Good luck.
Ceasing to pay that tax money to the government will also stop adding the blood it spills to your hands. You'll have to forego their thanks for your contribution to the everlasting wars and Fed ponzi.
No shame or regret in leaving the States. There are plenty of countries, and it's an awesome world. Well, Asia and the Pacific anyway; I haven't gotten to most of the rest of it yet! Taking my elderly parents around Angkor Wat last year was really fun and a bit surreal.
Leaving the States after high school may still stand as the best decision I've made for myself. It's actually nice to visit the States and travel; I've been back nearly five of the past sixteen years over seven visits; including about two years working and traveling with a corrupt activist organization: term limits on congress...oops, FAIL; medical use of marijuana...you're welcome. :-)
On retiring, I think of my parents who worked til 60+ and now enjoy the world and their savings from the vantage of cruise ships and guided tours. I prefer a little more 'hands-on' experience of traveling, and that old model of work til standard retirement age and expect a pension doesn't suit me, (much less ring true as plausible given the state of the global ponzi). I'll take my travel and luxury now, thanks, and I'll rely on my wits to get me by...and guess what?--the world is full of opportunities to be an entreprenuer or at least be self-sufficient and semi-retired.
And then I think of a good buddy of mine who has seen more than a hundred countries in his less than forty years and visits 20 or thirty a year; I asked him what he says to the people he knows when he returns to his orginal home of Serbia and sees everyone droning away, and he said, "I tell them, 'Don't travel; it's not worth it; stay here, and keep doing exactly what you're doing. Forever. Ok, I gotta go.'" And then he said to me, "If everyone travels the way we do, we wouldn't be able to". So, nevermind, everybody, go back to work!; I prefer the paradise spots when they're not over-run by expats and tourists. Selfish, elitist me. ;-)
Never travel at Chinese New Year...
True. There are some bargains before and after, though. Check out Cebu Pacific airlines; there are some tickets still available for the first two weeks of January that, via Manila, are supercheap. AirAsia via KL, too. (Shitty websites but cheap flights; sometimes it's better to call; thanks, skype.) Better website (but still not all-inclusive): kayak.com
No wonder ZeroHedge is first with the news all the time: It's ZH writing it that causes it to happen! That's a good gig if you can get it.
I remember in 2007 when the markets were approaching an all time high and seemed to rally on any news. At the same time I had clients with AAA paper that I was trying to get off their books. We couldn't catch a bid for anything. This was before the markets started collapsing. After about a week we caught a bid. I thought that was the strangest thing Shortly after that the markets started falling apart. This seems very similar.
Good post. I agree we are currently (stocks/FX) in a sideways range that is narrowing by the day. It's either going to break into a bull market or totally decimate into a multi mth bear market. It's looking like the short trade will show it's self, just a matter of when. The short squeezes are happening on rumors, not liquidity, which will last for so long. It seems that even a QE round may not propel stocks into upper ranges. Plus we had that Aug sell off which points to a major problem in China (re: commodities).
Last session rally seemed quite weak. Still, daily trading on headlines takes balls
...and I have big ones.
But are they THIS BIG?:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/18/wesley-warren-jr-scrotum_n_1018260.html
I recall; wasn't holding any paper myself, but saw price of anything & everything run right down the chute. Thinking I might get out of that bond fund, even though they supposedly "hold up" vs equities [on what time-frame?]
somebody start a blog topic on this stupid debate. good grief. are you all listening to this garbage? ron paul , as usual is being excluded........therefore his ideas, are not what the owners want to hear. it appears romney and cain are their boys.......since they are all israels punks.............whatever........it makes me sick..........all of it..........
To OWS Mr Paul! No coopting necessary...just straight through the belly of the beast!
wow cool art http://www.musemagazine.it/it/blog/art/global-inflation.html
OMG this Repub debate is the funniest thing I have seen YTD
Sorry for the off-topic comment.
There once was a world full of broacasts on broadband. That told lies with every byte.
Now the tylers have joined the blogophere and make them chant things that are right.
By the way the answer to the question is no. Unlike in 2007, the banks have no intention of allowing all these RMBSs to crash and burn again. This time they own the politicians all the way up to Obama so don't count on it.
The guy on the radio said there were two good reasons why the European plan would work. I said to the radio "you bet: trillion one and trillion two." bailouts work people! Save your outrage for the fools who died for them. I hope they "kill them all" as they say.
Nothing matters except expanding and accelerating EU and US debt. w/o more and more debt, the economy and home prices will decline. In the EU its not about extend and pretend, its about pushing the debt to others or a game of not being left with the "old maid". IMHO, stand aside until a final agreement is signed by all 17 countries expanding the EU bailout to at least $2 trillion. This will never happen. This analysis ignores the elephant in the room.
I think they are having too many debates ! I think the MSM figures the public will get bored and turned off by the over exposure ! Obammy will be above the fray ! The MSM doesn't give conservatives face time unless they think they're hurting them ! Monedas 2011 Where's Obammy's tele-prompter ? You can take a staff negro out of the hood....but you can't take the hood out of the staff negro ? Comedy Jihad Share the Humour Tour
Tyler you are da new man! Maybe you can sell out to AOL or somebody like Ariana did. Take me with you!
Gene8696
YOUR DAD'S LAWNMOVER IS NOT CONSIDERED TO BE PEOPLE SINCE IT DID NOT TRADE ANY SECURITIES...
THE IPAD WHICH I HAD FOR DINNER.. ON THE OTHER HAND.. YUMMYYYYYYYY ....HAD TRADED ON MY BROKERAGE ACCOUNT.
OH MY GWADDDDD I JUST ATE A PEOPLE... CAN I NOW STAND TO BE THE NEXT FEED CHAIRMAN.
From the pdf: "Based on our fundamental loan-level model, we believe PrimeX indices are oversold and the current levels are quite attractive....
"Conclusion
"Despite all the weak fundamentals and technicals, we believe that the PrimeX indices are oversold at current levels. The market-implied HPD in our analysis suggests that a massive decline from current price level is not sustainable given the indication that future home price declines have been mostly priced in. Furthermore, the high running coupons of the PrimeX indices are significantly more expensive to carry for shorting the PrimeX."
So after 12 pages and 13 charts, the meat of their analysis is, "we feel differently--don't believe you're lying eyes"? And then, "most investors aren't big enough fish to short, so they won't"?
So after reading the entire report, how can anyone NOT short the PrimeX? Their reasoning for it being oversold was that
a) the selloff was induced by ZeroHedge readers...
b) Maybe the Jumbo's won't have as many walkaways because these homeowners have higher morals and value their committments...
c) Because according to their calculations the market prices of homes will have to fall an additional 20%+ to overcome the future price declines already priced in...
and d) because we want the price to rise so WE can short it!
Why does this remind me of early 2007 when a Bear Stearns analyst gave a bullish call on the ABX index suggesting it was oversold? From the Wall Street Journal in February 2007:
""It's time to buy the [ABX] index," he told clients on the Feb. 12 call, according to a participant. Based on Bear's models, "the market has overreacted," the participant says Mr. Sinha added…"
The fact of the matter is the securitization market is dead. Unemployment is not going to improve soon. Consumers are going to go through a multi-year(decade?) delveraging process which means existing home sale liquidity and prices are not going to improve very much. I'd say even the worst case scenarios are rosy at best, which bodes ill for underwater jumbo prime loans and derivative instruments thereon.