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Dexia's Belgian Bank To Be 100% Nationalized

Tyler Durden's picture


Earlier today, Reuters reported that the final solution for Dexia is imminent. "The governments of France, Belgium and Luxembourg reached agreement on Sunday on a rescue package for Dexia , which will be put to the stricken Franco-Belgian bank's board later in the day for approval. "The governments... have reaffirmed their solidarity in finding a solution to secure the future of Dexia," said a statement from the office of Belgium's caretaker Prime Minister Yves Leterme. "The suggested solution, which is also the result of intense consultations with all partners involved, will be submitted to Dexia's Board of Directors for approval." Sure enough, from Dow Jones:


We are waiting for more details but with that we have Belgium-Dexia CDS compression, an imminent Belgian rating downgrade, and the unleashing of the completely unpredictable domino effect.

Oddly enough, it is none other than Qataer, which last weekend made news with a full out grab for Greek gold, that is now picking off the Dexian carcass:

Qatari Sovereign Fund Seen As Buyer Of Dexia Luxembourg Bank


The Qatar Investment Authority, the nation’s sovereign wealth fund, is the leader of a consortium of investors that is set to buy Dexia SA’s Luxembourg retail banking subsidiary, a person familiar with the discussions said Thursday.


The sale is part of a plan to break up Dexia set in motion after Moody’s Investors Service this week warned that the bank’s heavy dependence on wholesale funding threatened its stability.


The Luxembourg government would have a blocking minority stake in the business, Dexia Banque Internationale a Luxembourg, if the deal is finalized, which could happen over the weekend, the person said.

Some more on what the full "package" will look like again from Reuters:

French President Nicolas Sarkozy was due to meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Sunday in Berlin to thrash out differences on how to use the euro zone's financial firepower to salve a sovereign debt crisis that threatens the global economy.


Germany and France have so far been split over how to recapitalise shaky European banks. Paris wants to tap the euro zone's 440 billion euro ($594 billion) European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to recapitalise French banks, while Berlin is insisting the fund should be used as a last resort.


Dexia's overhaul will likely see its French municipal financing arm split from the group and merged with French state bank Caisse des Depots and Banque Postale, the French post office's banking arm.


The Belgian government wants to nationalise Dexia's largely retail banking business in Belgium.

Healthy units, such as Denizbank in Turkey, will be sold.


A 'bad bank' supported by state guarantees will hold 95 billion euros in bonds, including 12 billion euros of sovereign debt of weaker euro zone periphery nations.


Including 7 billion euros of securities linked to U.S. mortgages, France and Belgium may need to provide guarantees to cover up to 200 billion euros of assets, which would be more than 55 percent of Belgian GDP.


The key issues for Sunday's talks will be how to divide up the 'bad bank' assets, how much Belgium should pay to nationalise Dexia's Belgian banking business and whether others, such as Belgium's regions, would be involved in its purchase.


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Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:38 | 1754420 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

The end game cometh.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:06 | 1754495 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Turd in the punch bowl repeat: Turd inside the punch!

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:13 | 1754509 flacon
flacon's picture

Can someone explain why this Dexia is THE domino effect? Is it because it sets a pecident of nationalizing derivative debt? 

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:23 | 1754522 Smithovsky
Smithovsky's picture

Bank runs.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:23 | 1754531 Hulk
Hulk's picture

As did Bear and Lehman...

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:53 | 1754598 Popo
Popo's picture

But the million dollar question is this:   What happens to Dexia's shareholders?

The US had the unbelievable gaul to not only bail out its banks -- but bail out the bank's shareholders.  (The reason for this?  Because Hank Paulson said it would be 'best').

Let's hope Europe at least has the common sense to recognize that Dexia's shareholders made a bad investment and should have their equity set to zero on condition of the bailout.


Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:58 | 1754611 redpill
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Does this mean Dexia's Luxembourg retail banking operations are going to adhere to Islamic Banking rules?

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:18 | 1754654 RSloane
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Yes. Women will have to wear head scarves while utilizing banking services lest Allah cleave their skulls in half with one disapproving glance.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:37 | 1754686 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Time to be concerned with the branch manager on the floor is sporting a scimitar.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:57 | 1754736 Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

maybe not...

Hopes may be disappointed for an influx of money from Qatar and other rich Gulf states into battered European banks, since Gulf investors are likely to see many of the banks as too risky and out of line with their investment strategies.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:30 | 1754673 jez
jez's picture

Yep. Permanent ZIRP. Closed on Fridays. Prayers five times a day. And bouncing a check becomes a criminal offence.

I'd be a bit worried by all this nationalization business if I were a Dexia shareholder, were it not for the fact that the bank so easily passed that stress test just last July. Very comforting, that.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 12:29 | 1754820 nope-1004
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And bouncing a check becomes a criminal offence.

LOL.  There was a time when signing your name to a note representing that you were good for the amount on that note actually was considered fraud if found that the document was falsified (check bounced).  It appears even ZH'ers now think bouncing a check is no big deal.  LMFAO.

 I see little difference between bouncing a check or using counterfeit currency.  If y'aint got the funds, don't pretend ya do.



Sun, 10/09/2011 - 12:35 | 1754851 jez
jez's picture

"It appears even ZH'ers now think bouncing a check is no big deal."

That there's the code of the West, son.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 15:37 | 1755363 RSloane
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I do. I think bouncing a check is a big deal. I never have and could never consciously do it.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 12:08 | 1754765 trav7777
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there's no telling what type of side bets were made on the preferred shares.  Common equity did get wiped, but the preferreds were taken care of to an extent.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:36 | 1754685 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

This is immediate term bullish in the sense that markets will rise on hopes of systemic risk being OFF the table (i.e. nationalization of an entity - as like started with Bear) but somewhat longer term this will just spill over into the next zombie entity needing a cash infusion which will inevitably lead to a collapse or another nationalization (a la Lehman) in which case systemic risk is back ON the table.

Before you know it, EU-TARP is on the table, but we still have a few hundred SPX handles to go to the bottom as really, we didnt fix anything, as was learned in 2009 despite the near 100% increase in equity px.

Rememeber to watch credit carefully these coming weeks - less attracted to short injections of hopium versus your average joe equity jockey.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:38 | 1754526 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

I think it has to do with the shadow banking industry, opaque cds trades, and counterparty risk.


I'm assuming now that Dexia is being nationalized, it is considered a default event, so parties will have to pay up, which may be huge, putting more bank(s) balance sheets at risk, tipping others into default, and so you have contagion, and a possible domino effect.


No one know how many credit default contracts are out there, and what parties are at risk.  So you're setting off a mine, and hoping it's isolated, and not located in a minefield, less you get a clusterfuck.


It's like someone taking a fire insurance against your house.  Your house is burning.  How many people took insurance against your house? 10, 100, 1000?  Now that the insurance company has to pay off 1000 claims, they are now broke.  How many people took insurance against the insurance company default. 10, 100, 1000 ?  Now bigger insurance companies fail.


*This is the fatal flaw in the system.  You shouldn't be able to insure against an asset you don't own.  It can incentivize people to burn down your house.


It's a network cascade  failure that will reach the largest nodes in the financial system: central banks, and sovereigns.  central banks print, you get hyperinflation/hyper stagflation.  sovereigns absorb the losses, you get the possibilty of sovereign defaults.  Do nothing, you get a great depression. Either way, it's a giant clusterfuck.


Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:22 | 1754661 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

CDS = Weapons of Mass Financial Destruction!

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 12:09 | 1754768 trav7777
trav7777's picture

no...CDS=only way to grow credit when the organic economy won't do it

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 12:10 | 1754771 GOSPLAN HERO
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Do not confuse weapons of mass destruction with weapons of mass effects.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 15:40 | 1755374 RSloane
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I remember a story of a large bank, I believe, that took out life insurance policies on people who worked at their building - janitors, security guards, clerks, etc. I have to do some research on which bank or corporation did that. It was appalling.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:23 | 1754532 max2205
max2205's picture

Bear market=buy the news?

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:31 | 1754548 been there done that
been there done that's picture

So the stock goes to zero I guess??? Rally in Bank stocks next week LOL.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:38 | 1754564 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

LOL, yeah, I'm waiting for the pundits to say that this event was already "priced in".

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 15:42 | 1755382 RSloane
RSloane's picture

At this juncture, if some random countries declared world war tomorrow Bob Pissanti would say 'its priced in'.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 12:06 | 1754756 AbelCatalyst
AbelCatalyst's picture

The reason this is an issue is due to the "fingers of instability" that are threaded throughout this sand pile we call the global economy. Any single grain of sand can set off a cascading collapse. The issue is not any single event, it is the risk that is hardwired into this market. The risk cannot be removed because each grain of sand is already in place, the risk cannot be removed without systemic crash. Then, and only then, can we begin the rebuilding process. This is one of the most important ideas to understand: the cause of a collapse is NOT a single event but rather the instability that is already present. The collapse will happen, and this may or may not be what triggers the collapse, but there is far too much instability for this sand castle to remain standing.... It's ready to pancake. It's ready to collapse. This could very well be the seemingly "small" event that triggers the cascade...

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 17:40 | 1755611 StychoKiller
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Non-linear, multi-dimensional, differential equations -- get you some!

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 19:48 | 1755861 Zero Govt
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Here's the (political) equation: if you're going to fuck up big time buying out 20% of Dexia is the same mistake as buying 70% of Dexia is the same mistake at 100% why quibble with a few Tens of Billions you're pissing down the toilet ....all in at 100% it is then  

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:10 | 1754500 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Sure. The end game for EUR shorts. In this rabbithole such news = EUR/USD 1.40 by weeks end.

I'm short (1.3180). Seriously these fucks are likely to abandon the helicopter approach and just decree that "all material matter shall henceforth be deemed as legal tender". Followed shortly by "U.N declares reality void, new reality agreed to by unanimous vote".

Markets closed for the day.

Update at 5:00.


Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:48 | 1754584 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

Why would you enter a short position at 1.31??? The move was already made back in the high 1.40s bro. New lesson never ever enter a short position after a 1600 pip move on a currency pair unless it's on a spike. U went short in the selling.

Good luck with that

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 14:28 | 1755187 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

End of a move? Looks like it's headed to the mid 110's on a monthly chart.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 14:43 | 1755224 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

The euro could definitely fall to 1.10s but I wouldn't initiate a short position at a trend low such as 1.31. And let's not forget that the USA isn't a bastion of fiscal prudence either. Given the circumstances the eur is holding up rather well.

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 04:45 | 1756689 French Frog
French Frog's picture


Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:25 | 1754535 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

No end game - the start of a new beginning. Tomorrow market rally.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 17:43 | 1755621 StychoKiller
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"That's no moon, it's a space station!"

So Pollyanna, how many skittles have you collected today?

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:50 | 1754589 PhD
PhD's picture

Indeed! The great reset is upon us!

Do not underestimate the peril we are facing, for 20 years and more our growth has been the result of the transfers of wealth from the future to the current through debt. We are now at the point where there is no more future, we have spent is all, winter is upon us and we are sitting naked and unprepared.

In the future this period will not be known as the greatest depression, rather they will name it "the great folly", never has a crisis been more predictable and the people more unprepared.

Prepare yourself, but do not underestimate the complexity of this task.

Gold and silver will help, but not in the short run. When the banking crisis strikes, cash is what you need. Banks will be closed, net-banks as well. Shops will no more take card and ATMs will be closed. Do NOT underestimate the effects of this. Prices on everything but food and necessities will plummet! In this period, you need cash and buy whatever you can, because as the prices explodes, governments will take action, setting price roofs and other silly measures. The effect of the measures will of course be horrible, this as the producers will start losing money from producing; retailers lose money from resupplying and so forth. Shops will run out of food and such and in the end people will be trading their gold, silver and valuables for scraps of food. With the collapse in production, hyperinflation will show its ugly head and the currency collapse will soon be a fact.

From this point onwards the PM will start to show their value, not before. This as the lack of credibility will force governments to adopt a gold standard or similar. Only issue here will be confiscation, and how to deal with that problem I'm still in the dark. Confiscationable coins may be a false hope I fear.

Last word: I’m often wrong



Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:00 | 1754600 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

last greatest depression:  End of the Roman Empire, and decent into the Dark Ages.




p.s.  after the great reset, the economy will collapse to a barter economy (like in Austria-Hungary after Armistice).  health and medical supplies will be highly valued.  Gold may be in demand, but government, or neighbourhood militias may confiscate it.


There'll be a high degree of violence around gold & silver.  Stick to medical supply bartering.


Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:09 | 1754633 Motley Fool
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"p.s. after the great reset, the economy will collapse to a barter economy"



Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:32 | 1754676 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

The US has the highest gun per capita of any nation.  You think when shit gets real, ppl are going to stay calm & collected?

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 12:10 | 1754770 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

Knowing most of your neighbours have guns is in fact a great incentive to remain civilized, lest you get shot. It will be worse in countries with less guns per capita.


That being said, we are not going back to barter. There are contingencies in place for when the system fails. All in all it should work out quite well, if being a somewhat spectacular transition.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 12:20 | 1754797 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

municipal governments are already slashing services, like the police force.  If they cant' sell bonds, they'll slash to the bone.


Meredith Whitney may be right, her timing was off, and underestimated Fed intervention.


What are you going to do when a gang/other neighbourhood militia  knows you have gold/silver in your house?  call the understaffed police dpt?


you think you're more civilized to act out the way folks did in New Orleans?


shit is going to get real.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 12:23 | 1754816 Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

There are contingencies in place for when the system fails.

Care to expand on your statement? What type of contingencies, and drawn up by whom? How did you obtain knowledge of said contingencies?

I wasn't very impressed with the contingencies when hurricane Katrina knocked New Orleans off the grid. Granted a natural disaster is much different than a financial one, but there are an awful lot of variables to consider.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 12:37 | 1754857 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

I could, but I'll simply go with : go read some FOFOA.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 12:10 | 1754772 trav7777
trav7777's picture

yeah, or else their neighbors will cap them

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 12:21 | 1754799 PhD
PhD's picture

""p.s. after the great reset, the economy will collapse to a barter economy"


I agree. Even though a collapse to a barter economy must be considered a possible outcome within a probabilistic context, the likelihood of the economy settling at that state at this stage is hopefully small. For a barter economy to appear while the banks are closed, yes, this is likely on a temporary basis, but for this to become the permanent state the collapse would have to become epic and cataclysmic.

Even if all the banks were to fail the systems are still there and ready for the government to run. What is to stop the government from nationalize everything and reopen the banks with basis on printed money? In a state as depicted above, people would accept any money, regardless of their origin. Printed or not, given scarcity people will accept them regardless of the questionable long term sustainability.

So, as I see it, it is the scarcity that will save the system, for a while (so I hope).

However, even if this were to work perfectly it will not save the system over time. The printing of money will destroy the role of the dollar as a reserve currency, bringing global trade to a standstill. Thus, even after the banks open, inflation will persist, and most likely accelerate. Hence, the collapse of the current currency regime is unavoidable.


Sun, 10/09/2011 - 12:39 | 1754868 Motley Fool
Motley Fool's picture

Agreed, broadly. :P

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 14:47 | 1755239 UgglyBetty
UgglyBetty's picture

I agree with you, but let me tell you what happened here in Argentina 2001-2002 for what it's worth.

All of what you mention was implemented to a degree. Barter was a means of survival, no money on the streets so the barter clubs resorted to a currency of their own.

This survived for quite a while, a couple of years indeed, and it could continue like that but guess what? fake certificates appeared... (you can imagine who was behind that, knowing that Govt does not collect taxes from bartering...)

On the other hand, as the Government was broke at all levels (Federal, Provinces, Municipalities) they decided to print "bonds" with the same face value as the pesos but non-convertibles to dollars so that they could control currency devaluation and prevent further dollar shortages. Public employees, suppliers etc were paid with those bonds.

People were desperate so it's absolutely true what you say, anything exchangable is used as currency. But back then we had deflation and now we suffer a 25%-30% inflation which only God knows the exact figure as the official statistics are fake. I guess now that the time comes to face a huge stagflation and people are not as resigned as 10 years ago, I dont really know what the outcome will be...

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 15:58 | 1755428 PhD
PhD's picture

Hey, thx for the feedback :)

The lessons from Argentina are indeed relevant in evaluating the state of the global finance. It never stops amazing me how economists blatantly ignores the lessons from Argentina and just pretends what happened there never really happened.

With regard to your comment I think the key word in your post is "dollar". In the collapse of Argentina there still existed a reference point for trade given by the dollar, hence in all trades and transactions there existed a benchmark towards which agents would assess the risks and possible rewards of using the different vessels of transaction, this being bartering, certificates or "bonds".

What worries me about the current situation is that when the crisis hits the American banking sector, the dollar is bound to lose its role as a benchmark. If this happens we may face the situation where there are no such reference points at all. Neither gold, silver nor any other currency will work as storage of wealth as people in desperation dumps any wealth they have in order to get hold of necessities. While this has happened before and there are many examples of such temporary collapse of value, what makes this unique is that it likely to happen in multiple economies at the same time. Sure the government will get the situation under control, but then what? After the situation has been stabilized, how will we trade internationally? Will you in Argentina accept euros if you expect the value of these to be 10% less next month? Will we in Europe accept dollars if we expect the same development for the dollar?

Because of this I would be anything but surprised if we see a similar development in the coming years as we saw after the collapse of the gold standard in 1932. Hence, a collapse in global trade due to a lack of a stable vessel of transactions.


The best storage of wealth in the short run is necessities and IMPORT goods. Personally I have begun storing cash, rice, gold and silver. Cash for the short run, rice for the medium run and gold/silver for the long run.

Time Will tell :)


Sun, 10/09/2011 - 18:59 | 1755784 UgglyBetty
UgglyBetty's picture

You're welcome, happy to have something (useful?) to add to this great site and better ZHers.

Your thoughts are very relevant. Think that here today people are buying dollars as if there's no tomorrow. Buying dollars here means only "paper dollars" which are from now on kept under the mattress. Why? We have elections in two weeks time and it's certain that the same people are going to stay. And after 60+ years and maaaaaaaaaany devaluations and currency changes the common people think that once again a HUGE devaluation is coming and have to get rid of the pesos soon (I'm not so sure about it though).

Why dollars? "Tradition" as you say, the only reference that ordinary people have. It's also accepted worldwide. And it used to be a reserve of value. No one has any idea that the dollar is being debased and that it's no longer the reserve of value that used to be.

During our hyperinflation of late '80, people used to buy dollars at the beginning of the month and sell them at month end, otherwise the HUGE monthly inflation destroyed the salary. And buying all you can as soon as you have some currency on hand. The velocity of money gets really high...

I'm 38 and I've already seen 3 different Argentine currencies in my lifetime, and that's because the peso-dollar convertibility gave us several years of stability.

Imported goods are an issue, but in this country we are blessed with resources so at least we dont have to buy food with dollars or whatever... however that will be a great concern for many countries when the dollar is no longer used for comex and/or fuel prices soar (not happy at all with this).

There are lots of things to say on how to "survive", but the only reality is that with each currency change there are more poor people and what is really debased is the middle class.

One last thing (to cut this comment short...): as you say, keep cash (to avoid bank runs and deposit confiscation), food (prices rise and there's shortage because of fuel prices, strikes, looting, etc) and that's about it, there's not much more that ordinary people can do during hard times of inflation and social unrest, apart from caring for your family and try to do whatever you can for yourself instead of buying.

Thanks for your thoughts and we will see what happens... I've seen this picture so many times before it's very sad to extrapolate our ugly experience to the rest of the world...

Mon, 10/10/2011 - 06:04 | 1756740 PhD
PhD's picture


Wish you the best of luck my friend, we live in interesting times indeed where luck may very well be of essence.

Smooth be your journey!


Sun, 10/09/2011 - 12:06 | 1754755 Founders Keeper
Founders Keeper's picture

[...or neighbourhood militias may confiscate it.]---DormRoom


Whatever college you're attending DormRoom, get a refund.


Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:46 | 1754713 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

At least they got a good theme song:
who knew?

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 12:27 | 1754824 Esso
Esso's picture

No, I doubt this is the end. They've become so adept at pulling "miracle" solutions out of their ass, this will probably be a minor speedbump in the looting of the world.

My guess is, The Bernank will whip up a few trillion DigiDollars to shower upon the EuroBanksters and kick this down the road another week or so. Hell, what's a few measley trillion on top of the $47 trillion to date?

World markets should crash tomorrow, which means they'll most likely be up an average of 3%, at least. No doubt they'll bash gold & silver as the bonus plan.

Goddammit, I'm sick & tired of this shit. When the hell are common sense and guillotines going to come back into fashion?

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:39 | 1754422 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

It begins Bitchez!

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:56 | 1754464 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture


i think we shall here more of this word,nationalization

but i fear this this word...

i hope TPTB dont nationalize private holdings of PM's....

but as  a wise man once said,

'when you prohibit make it precious'

-mark twain

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:16 | 1754515 cossack55
cossack55's picture

So, if the gubmints take over banks its nationalization. What is it called when the banks take over gubmint? USA

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:24 | 1754533 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

I think this a game changer...
I think certain officials are addicted to 'contributions'
So, if you nationalize the banks, you can control the hand that feeds you...
And if they stop 'contributing', well, its butt pounding prison time....
I was waiting to see this happen, but nothing new...the racketts...

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:20 | 1754523 knukles
knukles's picture

A caretaker prime minister of a small country which has had no functioning gubamint (As Martha would say; "It's a good thing.") announces nationalization of a failed bank thereby guaranteeing the deposit base with funds the country does not have an shall thus be downgraded triggering numerous Unintended Consequences (think ESFS or whatever the extra governmental possibly illegal abortion's named) in a currency which should never have been thereby furthering the Grand Illusion that all is well in a world going to shit which everybody knows is all pretend so that the Leaders might maintain their Privileged (New Versailles) positions.

Fucking Hunkie Dorey!
Lets All Happily Bend Over for More Official Corn-holing.
Watch them fucking Fed Swap Lines Expand.
Bail 'em out, boys.

Ah, QE whateverthefuck

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:31 | 1754547 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I don't know what you said, but I kinda like it.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:55 | 1754604 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Knuks, I was at a pig roast yesterday with my group here, had a couple of interesting conversations. Two guys I was talking to, neither of whom you would look at and think, "This guy's paying attention", and by God, their eyes were open. They get it, and want to know more. As the conversation developed, they started asking me questions like, "Well, if they didn't fix anything in 2008, and have only piled more debt onto a debt problem, what happens now?" It was the right question, but of course there is no way to answer with any certainty, so we had a good conversation about various scenarios. I had another conversation with a lady in her late '50's, and she said she just had an uneasy feeling about the future. I asked why, she said, "Because so many people have allowed themselves to be distracted by the left-right paradigm, that we'll never solve any of the real problems. The big banks are the problem." And the conversation carried on from there.

The point is that, at last, people in the trenches are starting to wake up, and they're starting to tune in. Occupy Wall Street is certainly a cluster-fuck, with most of the protesters I've seen interviewed not really having a clue exactly what they are protesting, but it's indicative I think of an awakening of the middle-class. Maybe this is finally the common ground that will unite the 70% of the population that agrees on 90% of the issues, but has been distracted and marginalized with wedge issues like gay marriage and other bullshit ideaologies that are the luxury of a healthy economy and society. Time will tell, but I see a new awakening from the people who have been in a deep, deep slumber.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:59 | 1754745 Ragnar24
Ragnar24's picture

Preach it brother.  I'm seeing my closest friends start their awakenings, but while that's encouraging, I'm disheartened by the masses that are focused on the symptoms of our disease, i.e. the Fed and CRONY capitalism. We can easily unite against the crony part, but I'm afraid the likes of Michael Moore and Obama have managed to convince people that the American system IS Capitalism -- that false premise needs to be corrected!

Instead, the masses get hung up on issues like gay marriage? who cares! but since these jackasses won't move past it, here's the simple solution: every "union" (hetero OR homo) is considered a "civil union" in the eyes of the government; if you want to be "married", you go to your church; if you don't have a church that offers same-sex marriage, then find one that does. Marriage is religious, unions are legal.

now stop bickering, and unite against the Fed so we can remove the price controls it has on capital! (which, by the way, means America has NOT had capitalism since 1913).

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 12:34 | 1754846 knukles
knukles's picture

Right on, Dawg.
For so long (Years, my man, fucking Years) I've felt as though when I've told folks what I truly believe that they've thought me stark raving mad, a nut job conspiracy theorist, lunatic fringe. 
But of late, I'm starting to have the exact same experience.  All of a sudden, there are no conspiracy theorists, that the shit is real.  And having been the one who made the statements before and then left it, let it go, I've had my say... not pressuring, pushing, not a sales job...  all of a sudden now they're asking of my opinion and views.
Clarity.  And we both know from where that comes. 
And in particular, I'd done an H&I last night and the folks who went with me, we got talking about clarity, and how we've felt for years like we escaped the Matrix and had found refuge in Alice's Rabbit Hole... but one of reality.  For Alice dealt with the madness with aplomb and serenity.  Clarity of thought, a definition of sanity.  I am sane.
Amazing stuff these days.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 14:33 | 1755199 logically possible
logically possible's picture

Great description of how Dr. Ron Paul has felt for years. I call it the Ron Paul awakening.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:29 | 1754538 kito
kito's picture

Are you kiddinnnnng me? You think this does anything to the blindly optimistic markets????!!!! Hahahaahhah. Watch for nary a blip to the downside for markets this week. Every investor is in the market with the confidence that every stricken bank will be bailed out. And dexia only bolsters this confidence. Moral hazard is more important than earnings, growth, sales, etc. The last bubble, that of sovereign debt, continues to inflate......

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:44 | 1754708 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

There are no markets there are only robots. When the cute little guys get their switches reset to 'evil' they can tank stocks faster than you can blink. Don't count on that blind optimism too much.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 12:02 | 1754752 Hansel
Hansel's picture

There are basically no details and the board gets to decide whether the deal is good enough.  Why do I think there is really no agreement yet?

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 12:34 | 1754848 reflex_121
reflex_121's picture



Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:41 | 1754423 achmachat
achmachat's picture

people in Belgium don't seem to care anyways.
I spent the weekend in Brussels and nobody even thinks about getting their money out. Whatever happens, the "government" takes care of it.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:18 | 1754653 Reptil
Reptil's picture

This is exactly what I've noticed. Suspended animation.
Merde, it will be a huge mess.

Basically.... technically Belgium is now bankrupt.

Good luck with collecting extra taxes from the population there. That's the other side of the coin. People don't care about that either.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:41 | 1754424 nmewn
nmewn's picture

The Belgians have decided on a government?

I won't believe it until confirmed ;-)

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:47 | 1754440 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Central banks are opening the gate to the pig pen... ie, they will flood the system with more 'liquidity', otherwise known as debt. Long term 'liquidity access facilities', otherwise known as pig troughs, will be filled.

Do not get in the way of the pigs stampedeing into the pig pen lest you get trampled.

I'm still eating popcorn, watching the show...

Howya doin nmewn? Some show, eh? :)

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:50 | 1754448 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

We haven't really.
The minority politicl parties, 7 in total have all joined to make sure that 65% of the flemish voters don't get for what they voted for and ban the most popular party.
And the parties who merged are all the responsable once for the mess our country is in.
June 2012, is when we get to vote again and everybody in the street says only one thing about it : nobody votes for the old parties anymore.
Our government is one that stands as proof how fucked up our democracy actually is.

The fact that dexia is nationalised will bankrupt our country. Thats pretty clear now. I hope we get our asses kicked on monday!

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:59 | 1754476 achmachat
achmachat's picture

Sudden, I spend a lot of time with my Belgians, and they all think that:
1) everything will be perfectly fine
2) their savings are perfectly safe with dexia
3) i'm coocoo for changing my savings into physical PMs.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:25 | 1754536 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

To bad your right. We had a mangment meeting friday and while i was talking about the dangers of a nationlisation of dexia and the risk of inflation and the derivative bombs, they all looked like: that's not whats printed in the mainstream press so it can't be true.

To bad for the fuckers who don't like to read up on events. They deserve everything that's comming to them.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:52 | 1754596 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Thanks for the update SD.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:21 | 1754657 richard in norway
richard in norway's picture



are you a flem or a walloun or is it not important to you


one more question, are belgian men still growing their beards until there is a govt or have they given up

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 12:50 | 1754896 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I'm flemish and i've got plenty of walloon friends. But i fucking hate the walloon politics and the flemish politicians who always bend over to the walloon politicians

I don't grow a beard :)

It are actually the muslims who grow beards, and the media thinks because there are so many of them that everybody does it.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:57 | 1754610 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

it's all good. think of it as a breakfast cereal:

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:03 | 1754486 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Wow dude, that seems... um... just kinda ridiculous. You're nationalizing without a nation? Dexia is a giant heap of horse shit no doubt but I hope it all get's figured out.

No just joking get the lube ready.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:11 | 1754502 Melin
Melin's picture

Does anyone "in the street" there say anything like, "the role of government is to protect individual liberty" and that it should have zero to do with the economy, except to prosecute and punish cases of fraud? Every new political party that crops up in the West is based on some sort of special interest it seems. Parties like these do not lead to a rights-protecting government. 

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:13 | 1754641 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture



And sadly, that's why the OWS movement won't accomplish anything;

A bunch of people with disparate 'wants' screaming "gimmee, gimmee, gimmee!!!"


Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:44 | 1754571 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Belgium should pull an Iceland: We Won't Pay! They began their healing from debt slavery on that day

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:01 | 1754617 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

sounds like they need a democracy first. "no voice no freedom."

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 18:00 | 1755662 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Brussels the seat of the EU Govt (such as it is)?  Talk about ripping open the curtain...

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:51 | 1754729 english serf
english serf's picture

Dont worry, the germans will help you out,just like in 1939/40

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:57 | 1754471 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

No kidding how can Belgium make a decision like this when they don't even have a controlling government coalition.  Who's in charge?  Silly question.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:27 | 1754539 max2205
max2205's picture

Bankers run the country. Run down rather

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:40 | 1754566 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

haha yeah nme, reminds me of that classic Nigel Farage moment, lambasting the Belgians for criticizing Ireland when they didn't (and don't) even have a government.

I hope BoA is in HUGE with Dexia on CDS. Fuck them.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:41 | 1754425 Council of Econ...
Council of Economic Terrorists's picture

But hey we got green chutes!!!

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:50 | 1754446 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"But hey we got green chutes!!!"

As we get closer I can see that what we thought were green shoots are are actually pig troughs for bankers... just a bit of green mold on them.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:19 | 1754519 cossack55
cossack55's picture

On even closer inspection, the green chutes are actually punji stakes dipped in feces.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:42 | 1754426 Racer
Racer's picture

And watch the futures soar on this!

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:42 | 1754428 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Yes, definitively bullish

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:43 | 1754432 magpie
magpie's picture

BTFD. Just imagine a 130 % nationalization / guarantee !

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:43 | 1754429 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

read between the lines

the government's plan is submitted to the dexia board of directors for approval....LOL!!!

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:49 | 1754585 knukles
knukles's picture

Congrats... I caught that, too.

Reality speaks...  We bankers will approve the terms upon which you the gubamint representing the people and their monies shall inject funds to keep us afloat so that the economy doesn't crash.  And if you don't like our terms, go fuck yourselves, because if it don't work, You're more Fucked Than We Are.
Do as we say, not as we do...
Pass the Freedom Fries and Bonus Checks. 

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:43 | 1754430 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

Israeli Stocks are down about 1.3 % ....expecting the other markets to be down 1 % tmorrow

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:04 | 1754623 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Is there an Israeli precious metals or mining sector index that's trading right now... link if so ?

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:44 | 1754434 Nate H
Nate H's picture

Tyler...why would this cause a domino effect? Pls explain

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:11 | 1754504 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

more like a conga line for more nationalization debasement

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:28 | 1754525 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

I believe Dexia was claimed to be one of the healthier banks. Thus the stress tests would be BS (no news there really). Additionally, it sets the precident for others to follow. Rumors also flying about Greek and Irish banks. But we will see...


Right after I posted this popped up:

The Irish Haircut cometh...

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:43 | 1754570 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

fuck Barry, that nouveau riche shill. Last year he claimed we were "coming out of a recession" and things were better for months, when any asshat could see otherwise. Now he says we may be in for a brand new recession.


Whateva--stick to your commentary about plastic surgery, fast cars and your sad attempt to fit in with the rich folks in your area, Barry.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:24 | 1754663 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture



Amen brother.

I gave up reading Barry's blog about a year ago once I recognized it offered little of value from an investing/trading perspective, and was merely becoming a soapbox for his 'limousine liberal' spleen.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:48 | 1754583 unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

run down your mental list of the top 21 banks in europe. according to the stress tests dexia had the best tier 1 ratio if shit got bad accoring to the test. well we all know what a bunch of bs those tests that if it may dexia was at the top of the list, what does that say about those french, italian, etc banks?what does that say about the charade that is euro? i'll tell yu what it means, get ready for some rip your foccin' face off, trillion dollar qe from the chairsatan

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:51 | 1754590 samsara
Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:14 | 1754648 Nate H
Nate H's picture

I well  understand the risks of an uncontrollable domino event in Europe and beyond. I just don't see how nationalization announcement of Dexia is straw to break that back. It was already halted at around $1. - (ie. this was priced in). The 'nationalization' part, to me, implies LESS chance of domino effect as govts will guarantee. If Tyler is claiming this is the 'all in moment' I disagree, though details on how they will spin this still to come..

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:37 | 1754687 Cliff Claven Cheers
Cliff Claven Cheers's picture

I agree whole wholeheartedly, but the problem is the govs don't have enough money to support losses when they nationalize all the banks.  Hence the threat to the Dutch credit rating. Same will happen to every other country.  There is speculation Germany will bail from the Euro currency before they will put their AAA at risk.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:45 | 1754436 EZT
EZT's picture

We also hve the Danish bank Max bank A/S, which has to raise money by 18:00 today or it will be taken over by the Danish goverment.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:01 | 1754479 NetDamage
NetDamage's picture

A rather small deal though in comparison...€ 1/2 bill. at stake at the most.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:27 | 1754540 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

and mellon and state street...

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:46 | 1754437 Mongo
Mongo's picture

Solidarity bitchez!

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:46 | 1754439 Out9922
Out9922's picture

I came across this.  Awesome how it links all the companies and people.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:48 | 1754443 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Holy Toledo. I guess I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue!

Anyway, does anyone here follow the webbots? Are they "predicting" a global collapse beginning the week of the 17th?

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:57 | 1754468 spinone
spinone's picture

Come on Turd, webbots are just 21st century tea leaves.

No one can predict the future.  Chaos theory and all that.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:59 | 1754477 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I predict Webbots will keep predicting the future for a while still.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:18 | 1754516 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

Webbots gave up and watch tranny porn like everyone else...   when in Rome

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:22 | 1754527 cossack55
cossack55's picture

You may have the webbots confused with the SECbots.  Webbots are smarter and much more honest.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:02 | 1754481 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

I asked that question of my minature oracle of Delphi, purchased from a protesting Greek street vendor...  The oracle said 'avoid all paper'...

Do you think the oracle meant toilet paper too?

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:19 | 1754521 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

There are some appropriate uses for paper.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:54 | 1754602 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture


Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:58 | 1754741 HedgeCock
HedgeCock's picture


Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:23 | 1754530 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Its harvest time in the cornbelt.  We don't need no stinkin' paper, senor.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:53 | 1754599 hayleecomet
hayleecomet's picture

Webots got me out of the market in 2008.  Just sayin'.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:51 | 1754445 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Like  PM?

Providentmetals has better prices than APMEX.


Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:50 | 1754447 Mr. Lucky
Mr. Lucky's picture

A 'bad bank'

How can you tell the difference?

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:52 | 1754455 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

The once who make it easy for you to buy pm's in the bankoffice are the good once.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:46 | 1754714 Debt-Penitent
Debt-Penitent's picture

I brought in a hundred ohhz of Ag as colateral for a car loan and my bank wouldn't accept it.  "Too volatile" they said....yeah-sure.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:53 | 1754457 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

A bad bank smells worse than the less bad banks. They are all zombies... but some have been dead longer than others.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:52 | 1754451 Volaille de Bresse
Volaille de Bresse's picture

"Swallow the pill that makes you ill" Belgian tax-payer new motto...

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:26 | 1754667 Eeyores Enigma
Eeyores Enigma's picture

What happens when banks drink the water in Mexico?

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:52 | 1754452 brodix
brodix's picture

Unleashing of the domino effect?? More like just one more domino in a long string of them, with many more to come.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:52 | 1754453 QuantumCat
QuantumCat's picture

Bailouts = Mutually Assured Slavery. Pretty soon, you'll be able to buy little Greek children for pennies on the proverbial dollar.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:56 | 1754465 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I buy Chinese children, but let them live in China. And Tiawan, and Bangladesh, and...

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:02 | 1754482 mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture


Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:04 | 1754483 Racer
Racer's picture

Slavery is worse today than it was before it was 'abolished'

It is far cheaper to buy a slave today compared to then

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:28 | 1754542 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The high cost of slaves when they were legal was caused by speculators. It's a well known fact you can dig a slave out of the ground for $5...???... Sorry, that's zombies. My bad.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:52 | 1754456 El Gordo
El Gordo's picture

What's the difference between a government bailout and a government takeover?  Maybe with a bailout, the government just gives them a fixed sum of money and goes away and watches while the bank pisses that away again; versus a takeover, where the bank grants unlimited taxpayer funds and goes away and watches while the bank pisses the entire treasury away.  But what do I know.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:31 | 1754546 optimator
optimator's picture

Finding the 'right' people to run the government banks will be easy, just keep the same people that have been running them for decades.  Of course they will have to keep those bonus sytems in place.   

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:36 | 1754558 max2205
max2205's picture

Worked for GM right?!?

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:54 | 1754458 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I know, let's nationalize all our banks, k? Oh wait...

Ex post Facto?

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:05 | 1754489 X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

i hope you dont think, mscreant, that TPTB will let a little thing like LAW stand in thier way....

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:46 | 1754575 Cindy_Dies_In_T...
Cindy_Dies_In_The_End's picture

You mean "banknalize" our government, don't ya? I thought that was already done.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:54 | 1754460 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture


DOW chemical has a new CEO, Andrew Liveris and he has a new book “Make it in America: The Case for Re-inventing The Economy”           

But then there is this:

 NEW YORK: Saudi state oil giant Aramco and US firm Dow Chemical signed a deal Saturday to build a massive chemical plant in the eastern Saudi port city of Jubail, a joint statement said.

The signing follows a late July announcement on the $20 billion plan that will establish the Sadara Chemical Company. 

Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The Sadara chemical joint venture being built by Saudi Arabian Oil Co. and Dow Chemical Co. may tap debt markets to help finance the project.

The venture will look at all sources of funding as “it’s a big project that needs a lot of debt,” said Khalid Al-Falih, chief executive of the state oil company also known as Saudi Aramco. The project will examine bond and sukuk markets.

Financing costs will be low because the two companies have a good reputation and “we will make sure it will stay low,” Al-Falih said at a ceremony in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, today.

How can they "make sure it will stay low"  Do they have the power to keep financing cost low? 


Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:58 | 1754473 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

With knee pads you can stay low a really long time.

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 10:06 | 1754494 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

...and avoid carpet burns...

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 11:29 | 1754672 Hulk
Hulk's picture

...which you don't feel until the pump is empty...

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 17:05 | 1755544 knukles
knukles's picture

"And we will ensure that costs stay competitively low from a world production standpoint", said Al-Falih adding "That ensuring the debt service costs are low, we will source jobs from the masses of the unemployed needy all across the middle and far eastern regions, paying them mere pittance slave like wages.  They can be grateful working in near barbaric conditions for us or fucking starve to death.  T'is the will of Allah."
With regard to sensitive ecological concerns, he said that "In the spirit of the New World Order, due care will be taken to ensure that destruction to the environment similar to the heresy committed by Saddam Hussein's proactive destruction of the Kuwaiti oil fields would be against company policy and disciplined by immediate suspension without pay by those responsible for such despicable acts."
Asked when he felt the project would be up and running he noted that "Black non-believers from the Libyan desert have been imported and begun initial diggings in the far reaches of the Abandoned Terrible Quadrant south east of Jabal Sawda in the Rub 'Al Kahali Really Fucking Miserable Desert of No Possible Escape or Return.  Each sand-man has been properly supplied with two new shovels and a tube of sunscreen. 

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:55 | 1754461 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Box of Despots and Bank Pustule?

Sun, 10/09/2011 - 09:55 | 1754462 mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture



For those so inclined to read his latest, HYPERTIGER has a relatively new post (Oct 2):


I know, not everybody's cup of tea, but he's on message and, well, stylistically interesting.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!