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"Dexia's Funeral Will Be Announced On Sunday" As "Weakest Link" Slovakia Prepares To Bury The Euro
A few days ago we mocked the market's naive belief that a loose union of 17 different countries and hundreds of separate political organizations, each torn by thousands of unique interests and lobby groups, can all agree unanimously in the pursuit of the common monetary (read: banker) good, over that of their own people. Yet that did not stop stocks from enacting the second weekly massive short covering squeeze, in 3 weeks, purely on hype, rumors, innuendo and lies. And just like the last time the market soared by nearly double digits in a few short days, only to plunge when hopes of a quick resolution were mercilessly dashed, Monday has all the makings of another epic risk off day. Because while all it takes is a rumor (of a plan for a plan) to start a squeeze, we are about to get some very nasty actual events which will demand immediate and forceful intervention by the powers that be, something which Europe (and the US) has proven is virtually impossible. The events in question are, as Reuters reports, that i) "Dexia's Funeral Will Be Announced On Sunday" and, as Bloomberg reports, that ii) Slovakia’s ruling Freedom and Solidarity party won’t back the overhaul of the European bailout mechanism after Prime Minister Iveta Radicova rejected the party’s conditions for approval, a lawmaker said. Said otherwise, bonds are currently thanking their lucky stars the bond market is closed because not only will Europe have to deal with the headline risk that the weakest link in Europe, the tiny country of Slovakia, can scuttle the entire second Greek rescue operation, and thus, lead to the expulsion of Greece from the eurozone following its bankruptcy, but this will have to take place as Europe fights the stem the contagion resulting from the collapse and nationalization of the first Greek bank, which nobody, nobody, could have foreseen.
First, on Dexia via Reuters:
France and Belgium are expected to finalise plans this weekend to break up Dexia, which helps finance hundreds of towns in both countries and became the first European bank to fall victim to the euro zone crisis.
Dexia, whose board is likely to meet on Sunday, was forced to seek government help earlier this week after a liquidity crunch hobbled the lender and sent its shares into a tailspin.
The bank's implosion has added to investors' worries about the solidity of European banks and has coincided with increased European Union talk about coordinated action to recapitalise banks across the continent.
The burden of bailing out Dexia also prompted Moody's to warn Belgium late on Friday that its credit rating could fall.
The ratings agency also cited the prospect of higher funding costs and weak economic growth as reasons for putting Belgium's Aa1 government bond ratings on review for possible downgrade.
France and Belgium have guaranteed Dexia's financing, paving the way for a new rescue for the bank, which is struggling to wind down billions of euros in toxic assets accumulated during an overambitious expansion plan.
But there were signs that the details of the rescue were proving troublesome, as a Dexia board meeting originally scheduled for Saturday slipped back to Sunday.
Still, a source close to the talks was confident the bank's future would be determined before the opening of markets on Monday morning.
"The need to rescue Dexia is symbolic of the uncertainty that characterises the banking sector," said Eric Galiegue, president of Valquant, an independent research firm. "Who would have imagined that a bank so linked with European construction would end up being dismantled?"
"Dexia's funeral will be announced on Sunday," the source said.
Summarizing the above: nobody has any clue what the proper response here is nor how the market will react.
And as for the second key event just unveiled...
Slovakia’s ruling Freedom and Solidarity party won’t back the overhaul of the European bailout mechanism after Prime Minister Iveta Radicova rejected the party’s conditions for approval, a lawmaker said.
The party, known as SaS, insists its three coalition partners agree to two conditions before it will back the enhancement of the euro region’s bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, in a parliamentary vote Oct. 11, said Jozef Kollar, head of SaS’s parliamentary caucus. “If the solutions we have put forward aren’t accepted then we will not vote for the EFSF,” Kollar said in a debate on state Slovak Radio today.
Slovakia and Malta are the only countries that haven’t yet ratified the key element in the European Union’s plan to prevent the region’s debt crisis from spreading. The Slovak row risks sinking the EU plan, which needs the unanimous consent of all 17 euro members to come into force.
SaS is calling for the creation of an inter-party committee that would have a right to veto individual EFSF disbursements. It is also demanding that Slovakia doesn’t participate in the European Stability Mechanism, a permanent rescue vehicle set to come into force in 2013. SaS will negotiate “until the last minute” with its coalition partners, according to a statement posted on the party’s web site today.
Smer, the largest opposition party, has said it won’t support the EFSF overhaul unless the government steps down.
For those who are still confused, here is what is going on:
The bailout plan that was proposed in July, and was supposed to be operational by the start of September, has still not been ratified, and now the smallest European country is holding the entire continent, its currency, and frankly the Fed, which will have to step in and bailout Europe, hostage.
In the meantime, the first actual core bank casuality is about to go 6 feet under, and unleash a falling house of cards of unpredictable consequences, which will likely make the "fear and loathing" chart presented previously double in a very short time.
And in this environment, where the decisionmakers in Europe are objectively about 2 years behind the curve, are paralyzed into inactivity and torn asunder by warring political parties, the market actually believes that some actual "solid" policy intervention can about to take place?
...
Oh yes, "Dexia is fine"... The stress test (the second one) said so.
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Strange he?
The fact that the former prime minister of belgium got a job at the board after his term will have nothing to do with it...
They should put them all in prison or hang em. But it'll never happen because the powers that be are to involved in this economic mess.
Welcome to the Irish solution to the Irish problem.
Just appoint the same fuckers who fucked you in the first place to fuck you again.
Apparently it's called Democracy.
Or marriage.
since when did married people fuck? marriage + baby = the end of sex.
Good chance more bank nationalizations ahead now that they've done one.
First time's an accident. Second time a trend. Then finally the following are all problems. At least for the banking oligarchs and globalization sycophants.
We just had an accident.
Accidents can be messy. Let's see what happens Monday...
I don't agree with a lot of what Paul Krugman writes but I do agree with his description of the here and now - "terrified and bored"
You should learn a little geography Tyler. This is mixture of half truths. ESFS will be ratified in Slovakia maybe not in first vote. Next step will be reconstruction of cabinet and second vote will be supported by oposition party SMER. That is for sure.
Timeout reached....
And they'll be paid very well, I suspect--if only via Cayman bank accounts or gold.
A month ago my company was taken over by a american company. Last week they heard of our index system. Needless to say, they looked like they where struck in the face. Every needs to get a 4.5%r raise next year because IT'S THE LAW BITCHEZ!
But the index is only finalized on december 30, and news like this will spark even more inflation :)
We actually profit from a collpsing system over here :)
HA HA!
The Americans NOT doing their homework! Sloth will get you into trouble sometimes... THE LAW BITCHEZ! Do your homework...
Benefitting from inflation and a collapsing system? Who? Oh, that's right, people who own silver and gold.
:)
leve de indexering!
De impact van Dexia gaat gigantisch zijn. Maanden lang zijn ze bezig geweest met te bekvechten over banaliteiten en dat terwijl er een gigatische golf over de wereld en de euro aan het spoelen is.
Even now dexia is NOT the main news item in Belgium, can you believe this?!
En jij ook zilver of goud bug?
It's the main news item on De Tijd and De Standaard.
HLN seems to think football and some bull piercing a matador's eye is more important than the Dexia mess..
COOL! I Like Jarts.
Is there a video of the bull poking out his eye?
Fuck me, here in California they won't even let kids do gymnastics in school because it's "dangerous". Whimps. Oughta make a new rule #8, "All politicians have to get their eye poked out by a bull".
I like Jarts
Come to Florida. We are about to make dwarf tossing legal again. More fun than the actuall tossing (and dwarves not feeling the depression) is to listen to Progressives spout off like they found morals or something.. truely a site to behold.
Nobody wants to look at the coming disaster....
Ah, new meaning to the term "blind as a gouged bullfighter."
But it was all fun and games up until that point.
As we might have said in the bad olde days, "Why let it stop now?" Or, "Sounds like a good idea to me!" We'd never run out of fun!
"Hey, hold my beer and watch this!"
I sense a new rule by the EU will be announced tomorrow: All new rules can pass with 16 out of 17 countries approval.
That, or some major sweetners are being negotiated.
You mean capitulation to extortion?
Major collapse red flags? Ohhhhhh equities will be up 5% on Monday for sure.
Some CNBC clown will say 'it is all priced in', and the stock market will melt up. Business as usual.
All bearish news was priced in a long time ago. Everyone knows that. Only extermely bullish news has not been priced in.
They're all "Non-Recessionary Indicators" (NRI) now according to CNBS....
So, a little speck of a country that is smaller than Rhode Island is holding the cards. I love it.
When the swaps are initiated by the Dexia bankruptcy start flowing through the counterparties, I expect the waterfall to begin.
You 'gotta love weekends!
Ancona, green
Chindit13 has a GREAT reply stating that GREECE will be the one to start the dominos falling (on the Chart of the Week /Europe holding so much cash thread). YES, this other little country could be fly in the opintment trying to "cure" Greece, but, Greece is what will likely bring Europe down.
Who in Europe will remain standing? *crickets from the bearing*
Re Dexia and Greece, if there are derivatives big time on those two (assuming for the moment they FAIL), then the derivatives will not be paid.
Prepare!
Sort of like Serbia starting WWI
Yeah, or America totaling the WTC
Serbia? Didn´t you Americans tell the world over the last 100 years we Germans have been starting the war? ;-)
as long as the Americans are allowed to finish it. Did you know Perhsing in WWI wanted to "go all the way to Berlin"? Got a reprimand for that one.
Yeah, and did you know Woody Wilson's cabinet quashed the German notices in all but the Des Moines register not to board the Lusitania, which was carrying munitions from the U.S. to England under orders of Winston Churchill?
Wonder how many people would have boarded it knowing the "Dirty Huns" knew there were munitions aboard and told everyone they were going to send it to Davy Jones' locker?
what? what? was it something i said?
Not exactly. That was the Serbian Black Hand...mostly armed and organized by France and Russia. Serbs executed Col. Apis, other conspirators in 1917 to shut them up...Of all the European powers, France pushed hardest for war, then lay back and played the victim. What I cannot undestand is why Hitler was so gentle with the French in 1940; Statesmanship, I suppose. Fortunate for them I wasn't running the show...it would have been open season on Froggies.
<<So, a little speck of a country that is smaller than Rhode Island. . .>>
It's about 19,000 square miles. That's smaller than Rhode Island? I don't think so.
It was meant in a relative way dude. You don't have to get all real on it.
The facts are what they are, a small nothing country is now in control of the rescue fund.......like it.......don't like it......it's your choice, but what you can't do is change it.
BTW, I respect the research.
I appreciate being called out.......but under different circumstances......such as when citing facts that are wrong during a joust.
Slovakia is not the smallest economy or population in the EU either. It's BS to state otherwise.
Slovakia: 18,859 square miles
Rhode Island: 1045 square miles
Get it straight.
some more background on the Slovak mini drama
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44724134
a lot of internal posturing but it has been said that a butterfly flitting its wings in Manchester can create a typhoon in China - it has also been said that a promise of a prestigious EC appointment fixes most things
Background from CNBC? *cough*
Or a sizeable deposit to whatsername's Swiss bank account.
Show must go on..., at least until March (Bonus Time)
Dead countries walking. Cool.
This development proves there are still some free-market people running things behind the scenes within the EU. Free marketeers, along with those evil, evil speculators, must be squashed ASAP if the EU is to survive.
Otherwise this development is clearly bullish. For someone.
(/s)
Excellent article summarizing the current state of the EMU. I have to take some exception to one statement that I truly grow tired of seeing. "...which nobody, nobody, could have foreseen." I assume by that you mean nobody who only sees the world through supply-side colored glasses. This is not to say Keynes has all the answers either. But, after 30 years of bowing at the altar of Milton Friedman it has to be sinking in that there is something fundamentally wrong with the application of his theory. It is that steadfast application, after all, that has brought Western capitalism to its current state of chaos and near collapse.
Be aware, the Chinese are not bound by any reverence to either Friedman or Keynes, and they are eating our economic lunch. I think it's high time some key European leaders take a cue from China's storied fundamental philosophy and choose some middle road. Delay is just a bad US legislator, not a viable fiscal tactic. The Eurozone's leaders need to act now to bring some form of central fiscal policy to bear or Greece will be the least of their problems in the very near future.
Alas, poor Dexia, it may be too late to save you, but the rest of the European economy can certainly be salvaged. It all went off the rails when Trichet, et. al., first brought up "austerity measures" two years ago at the height of the financial crisis in the U.S. That was when I first foresaw the events unfolding now. Much to my amazement austerity was immediately followed with the unbelievably bad decision to worry about inflation (in the middle of a budding recession) and raise interest rates.
Apparently the powers that be are, in fact, incapable of learning from history. It is precisely that combination of ill-fated actions that led directly to the great depression. It can be no surprise that they are having the same impact once again. I'm sure you're all familiar with what is said about repeating the same actions and expecting different results.
just a thought, but what do I know, I'm unemployed.
Keynesian theory, Friedman theory, hard to say either is actually intrinsic to current economic policy. It's all been corrupted, every single fucking aspect of our economy. Politicians at just about every level are owned by the military-industrial-financial complex. So, fraud and corruption are the basis for our economic policies, not Keynes' or Friedman's ideas.
Bingo!
So... They're completely incompetent? Really, that's what you think?
They are all gibbering halfwits?
Because Occams razor says to me that it's deliberate.
Great leverage by that party. They are about to get some nice concessions, or serious threats leveled their way.
P.S. I will continue to short the EURUSD every time it rebounds. It's like playing Whack-a-Mole at this point, and I certainly enjoy piling up the pips.
So, what happens to all the toxic "holdings" on Dexia's books?
If France and Belgium disown the bad stuff, what happens to the spaghetti of counter party holdings in the banking system?
We're about to find out that those who sold the CDS's backing the bad debt can't cover the cost of paying out the claims.
Which is why it will be made illegal to own CDS's on bonds you don't own and the banks won't have to pay shit. #regulatorycapture
I do not understand the stress tests. What was their ranking compared to the other banks. Besides all the numbers being pure bullshit.. They would never let a small piece o' crap bank start the run. Money will flow. Does anyone know the real numbers or have a real idea of how bad that bank is?
Thanks
that's an easy one. Mr. Bank Overisight Guy: "how are you feeling today Mr. Bank Owner." Mr. Bank Owner: "i feel fine! not stressed in the least!" Mr BOG: "Excellent! You've passed Le Stress Test." Mr. BO: "excellent...how does Le Cirque for dinner sound?" Mr. Bank Owner: "Excellent. Shall we place our usual bet on when the collapse will occur?" Mr. BOG: "Hahahahaha. Absolutely! This time...a Bordeaux!"
so now i'm Mr. Popular? (That's "popular" in Spanish in case you were wonderin'! As in vet de la....vet de la...handicapped...es muy popular!)
L0L!!!
no more chas h. smith for you!
Please rise. Gentlemen, please remove your hats.
http://www.nationalanthems.info/sk.htm
Nice ominous title: "Storm over the Tatras"
Yes. Very nice. But the part they took out was called "let's kill all the Jews!".
Take your hate elsewhere!
More EU bankster/politicians coming out with re-assuring statements recently.
If you believe all is well in the EU fincially, you are a weak minded fool suffering
an old central banker mind trick.
Once Greece defaults, the Greek banking system will face its "Alderaan" moment. Then it will be pretty clear which side of the force holds the upper hand.
May the economic farce be with us.
And if you are looking to Germany to save the day, the current state of the political negotions are a follows:-
Sarkozy to Merkel : To save the EU we need Germany to put its AAA rating on the line
Merkel to Sarkozy: No
Right, Zippy- I have never understood the logic of these prolonged arguments: Germany has to save the Euro because it exports to the bankrupt countries. So, the Germans pay another country to buy their goods? What kind of demented mind could arrive at this circular illogic? A real testimony to the insanity and unashamed prevarication of our times.
Tao - we end up with economic insanity in the EU due to the political agenda of France.
Basically France has huge foriengn policy frustration in the EU. Everything it has tried has failed. Alliances with Russia, Small eastern states, Germany and the UK.
It needs to be secure from its more powerful German neighbour. Germany as a political power is actually weak. It is unsure of its world role and its history. It came 3rd in the race for Empire in bygone times - and now it has little in the way of an effective military. So it has concentrated on its economy - a trade surplus is its National badge of honour.
So France invents the EU to capture Germany and find security and preserve its global role politically. Germany goes along with it - more markets to sell its goods and a way to move on from its history. EU is a peace based thing so that solves the military questions for Germany also.
However, any real political fault line in EU eventually centres on the French / German axis. Ultimately however, Germany will never give up its economy card. Thats just life. The UK found this out when we were in the ERM (and then out again). The Euro is the same thing, but this time with Knobs on.
To really solve the French deplomacy issue, a real economic integration needs to take place. English as the first language, hire and fire labour laws, company takeovers without national interferance. This would consign French economic leverage in the EU to history as a) Germany would dominate b) The UK would start to build up influence due to its global status. Something neither France or Germany truely has. Hence tobin tax proposals from the EU to take from London, hence DeGaul vetoing UK membership, hence Germany never quite backing the EU by signing the really big cheque its needs to sign.
Its also why the French establishment refer to US/UK as the anglo saxon conspiracy - France is a runner up country in the power stakes.
Hence, why a political malfunction causes economic insanity.
Thanks for these thoughtful insights. I notice the LEAP2020 guys, who are overall fairly accurate, display this same French bias.
I have considerable experience with southern and middle Europe, and can say that the cultural differences are so extreme that it is hard to imagine monetary/ fiscal unity. The corruption in southern Europe is deeply ingrained. Who is going to collect taxes, stop the organized crime, and prevent the politicians from regularly raping whatever system is left? Even the idea of english as a first language will take a generation or two.
Very difficult to see the road ahead.
No only the corruption, but in the EU institutions themselves, EU budget has never been signed off due to accounting "errors".
I think a working EU would be a good thing, and that Britain should be part of it. The problem is that they were too impatientl. Instead of tackling the single market issues after ERM, cracking down on corruption, fessing up to voters about the reality of it all does anything get done.
After the ERM collapse, it was like - "OK, so we will take markets out of the equation this time" - instead of ... what we tried failed. Lets take our time, fix up things like the single market so they work properly to generate real integration and really understand what went wrong wrong.
EU went from failed ERM in '92 to Euro in '99 when they should have taken a break for 10/20 years and worked on the nuts and bolts stuff. Incredible when I remember it at the time. And people were shocked at Italy being let in, let alone Greece.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/sport/spl/aberdeen/accountant-sacked-over-...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UZf59FQ6K1g
Apparently the EU has accounting controls that rival the Pentagon's. Do Europeans talk about this much?
You bet we do. Plus Dutch, Germans and Scandanavians.
Plus we have Nigel Farage on Barroso and Rompoys case as well - Good vids on Youtube.
No - its not a consperacy - just layer upon layer of massive solcial liberal incompentance.
The irony of course is "once you have a whistleblower protection act you got 'em right where you want 'em." As the inventor "Greece as Alderan" i thank you for it's reappearance btw. Let us not forget the video dramatis either:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=djZFHTa6TfA
Analog to PIIGS -- FUKUS (France, UK, US)
As seen in Pravda.
Funny, in that true kinda way.
Dont be too down on US or UK.
UK has its own currency, and the longer Euro crisis drags on the more cover for UK debts. We are doing austerity, and we have track record on this. GDP growth is not everything. We need to kill off a lot of deadweight government jobs and industries such as retail, finance and other consumption based industries which are have grown too large. Manufacturing is live and well in the UK and advanced. Plus lower pound helps the city to be more competative in unit labour terms.
US has silicon valley and lots of natural resources. Still a very big economy and one all its creditors need to sell to, so can't let it fail. However US needs to get a grip on austerity because that will kill of mercantilist nations.
I don't buy the line about protectionism making the 1930s depression worse. Remember that government tax and spend means capital misallocation after a huge time of capital misallocation pre bust.
I see depressions as market failure due to market manipulation. If you see it that way, the exit is to kil off mercantilist nations who won't develop there own domestic demand. Last time UK got out first with devaluation, mild protectionism and retaining global trade with favour partners. US should do the same.
interesting. how does austerity "kill off the mercantilists"? wouldn't free trade "kill it off" naturally thus the goal should be the creation of as many "trading zones" as possible. by this i mean "actual trading zones" and not government created "Castles on the Rhine" or finance created "tax havens for finance reasons only." (Cayman Islands) That would mean airports, rail lines, interestate transfer points, shipping nodes, etc...all dedicated not for moving people but actual goods. wouldn't then we be leveraging the means of production towards an enhanced economic product?
If free trade was working, it would have worked already, and we would face no economic problems currently.
Self evidently we are not in a free trade situation.
In stead we are in a market manipulation situation:
* Yuan too low
* Failed banking system, stil being proped up by the state
* Government overspends and failed government projects
* State planned industries over producing in so call capitalist states
* Workers in Foxconn not being paid enough, working too hard because they have no rights and need suicide nets up to stop the body count. So Labour is not free in this market.
So no free market there.
This is a political, not economic problem. It needs a political solution.
would a dramatic decline in the price of "energy liquids" change that...perhaps add in a "trading currency backed by gold"?
I agree with sound money and free trade - for me that is the end goal.
RIGHT NOW is not a good time. History books say that escape from depression is easy money + demand + some degree of protectionism. This is in response to mercantilism (and mismanaged banks)
The trap to avoid is capital misallocation - i.e. keynes style stimulas.
We got here on too much credit / consumption. It corrupted politics, finance and general business. The issues are political not economic. Anyone saying that the people who have lost their jobs in the west is due to lack of skill or qualifications ? May be but I bet not for most.
All employees where I work under 25 have been flown in from India. The offshoring industry says new jobs get created (where?) . It says not to worry about currency fluctutions as there will be no government policy changes (how do they know ? Why do they think they should know ?).
So this is a stich up. People have to vote it down. Make no mistake, there is a cost - lower living standards for now. But then you get to keep your job abd re-build for the future. The quicker the West gets onto this agenda, the easier done it is. The longer the wait, the harder.
Some people say that globalisation is doing Gods work. That this is unstoppable and no-one should resist it ? For me - some questions :
1. What is the basis of this ? Who signed it off ?
2. Who said national weath was to be given away ?
3. When was the electorate consulted ? What was their decision ?
4. Why can't mercanilist countries live of their own demand ? Why do they see themselves intitle to ours ?
5. The people who agreed all this - who are they ? What (how much) do they gain from this ? What is their legitimacy in the system ?
6. What are the alternative solutions for global development for all ?
7. What are the politicians take on this ? How do they plan to represent us on this ?
Do globalists support a) Global unions b) Global taxes (so everybody pays, corporations included) ?
ALL political questions rather than economic. People - you need to wake up.
I'm trying to avoid the whole "rise of Hitler resulting in the use of the Atomic Bomb on those other people" thing. WORK WITH ME HERE, OKAY!
Waooooo, US citizenism has really destroyed any contextual framework to develop a train of thoughts.
Once again, here, we have another US citizen who is start with a premice and end telling the opposite of what the premice implies.
US citizenism, in its blatant denial of justice, have rendered addiction to power so tight US citizens can not think straight and have constantly to turn tables in order to be on the right side of injustice.
Avoid at all costs self indiction.
Troubles is that facts point at US citizenism as the root cause.
<<Germans pay another country to buy their goods? What kind of demented mind could arrive at this circular illogic?>>?
The Chinese -- American kind of demented mind. The Chinese have been paying Americans to buy their junk for over 10 years now and the end is not in sight. If the Germans really want to compete as a manufacturing powerhouse, that's their competition along with Japan.
No. The Chinese did not pay the US to buy their junk.
The Chinese buy from the US the ticket to the commodity world market. The name of the ticket is USD.
Without that trap set on commodity rich countries, China would gladly trade much less with the US and focuse on internal development.
China <--> America
HTH.
From Bloomberg Economic Calendar for Monday
US Holiday: Columbus Day
Markets Open, Banks Closed
How True!
they celebrate Columbus Day in Europe? I had no idea.
Tyler -
Slovakia is NOT the smallest country in Europe (not even in EU). Malta might be the smallest in EU but not in Europe.
Anyway, it is nice that at least two countries in Eurozone have some common sense and are unwilling to sheepishly bail out Masters of Universe for the n-th time.
I DON'T GET IT. ISNT THE ECB AND FED PROVIDING LIQUIDITY TO FEND OFF ANY CRISIS FROM DEXIAS IMPLOSION AND ISN'T SLOVAKIA JUST NEGOTIATING JUST LIKE HOW FINLAND DID AND RATIFY ANYWAY BECAUSE THEY ARE PUTTING UP A SHOW FOR THEIR PEOPLE JUST BEFORE THE ACTUAL VOTE. ITS LIKE HOW THE DEBT CEILING FIASCO HAPPENED. AND ISN'T IT EARNINGS SEASON WHERE BOTS PUMP UP STOCKS NO MATTER WHAT GOES ON JUST TO DUMP THEM AFTER EARNINGS SEASON IS OVER.
PLEASE EXPLAIN TO ME WHAT THE BIG DEAL IS.
Since you're shouting, you explain the big deal: you won't hear us anyway.
maybe he has a hearing problem. anywho keep shouting...it get's us closer to the truth. good points and "we'll see." CNBC has noted how "quiet" it is. That's code word for "no whisper numbers to leak to the media thus giving a little popp-er-ewski" which can be cashed in on. Instead both you and all the folks at CNBC must "stare at the stupid numbers all day." That is unless you have something better to do...WHICH YOU SHOULD.
So Dexia IS the prettiest horse in the glue factory!
pods
I do believe Greece will default in November after EFSF is ratified. Think the EU is just buying time to capitalize banks and ensure EFSF is in place. It's probably the reason why France and Germany are having disagreements as French banks will probably ask for funding first.
I'm hungry.
They have Big Macs and pomme frittes in Dexia's cafeteria.
I thought they had "Royales with cheese" in the caf....
I like funerals. A bunch of people who don't really know each other go over to the dead person's house, eat cheese and crackers, fake cry a little over the corpse, then go over and rifle thru the deceased belongings and argue about who gets what, at a highly discounted rate. You can't beat that crap. I say bring it on, I'll bring the cheese.
Do we need announcements when Drexia, Greece etc. corpses have already rotted? We need lime and more time for the bankster cretins to re-price that which they are too psychotic to price in; namely, REALITY.
ANNOUNCING.............. T-MINUS 3, 2, 1: REALITY!
Ringfence Belgum Bitchez
They tried that a few times. Germany used the Ardennes. I think Germany will use Belgium to get to France again
Without our peasant tax contributions for wind, solar and battery sub-stations for electric car portals.. We are Fucked.
Fri 29 Aug 08 | 11:15 AM ET
Financial services group Dexia confirmed a 37% drop in underlying second-quarter earnings Friday and forecast volatile market conditions ahead. CEO Axel Miller spoke to CNBC about the outlook.
We are rapidly campaigning for the progs to pony up more taxes. The planned society committee has implementation target dates to meet deadlines.
We have been forming the feeble minds for decades. Our central planning committee will not be laughed upon.
Shhhhhhhh. Expect other money laundering enterprises to be interconnected with Dexia fraud. Timmmmmbbberrrrrrrrr.
edit: I see the slovenia thing was already done above
Well, well, lets see: the smallest country in the lot.
If you are small, your wishes and wants might be reasonably fulfilled by the bigger than you.
In such situation, would not be the right moment to line up credible expectations and sell yourself out for the right price?
Well, at least, that is what the spirit of US citizenism suggests...
Naive are those who believe that this entire euro farse is anything but a typical problem - reaction - solution scheme case. Just wait for the problem to escalate and euro to slide a bit more and you'll see the Merkozy duo "hard liners" or their successors change the official tune. There will be a fiscal union and it won't be just fiscal. Why do you think eu was made in the first place? The reason it had to be done the "hard way" was a simple fact that no european "government" could have ever talked their nation into renouncing their national sovereignty otherwise. What Soros is suggesing is not only solution but the premise of the entire context. If it helps I'm a european.
Soros is epic
You might very well be correct. Deal is though that they have been talking crisis and before the trigger can really be pulled, they must have the crisis. All this bullshit has just been buying time to prepare...as in make plans. The stage play that we have been so fixated by was merely for dramatic effect. You don't really think that what they show you is an actual portrayal of the politicking that takes place do you?
It was Telegraphed to everyone
Why do you think England fired up the digital Printers a few days ago
"Forewarned, forearmed; to be prepared is half the victory."
I still think its going to hurt an aweful lot
is there oil in Slovenia? see, now we know why there was no access to BAC accounts! it was all a test!
If Dexia was ranked THIRD in the stress tests, and is now defunct..
WHAT does that say for anyone ELSE on that list....??
All those poor suckers that went long over the weekend.....
Perhaps my MS 3 Jan put may have some life breathed back into it....
Any zerohedge peeps going to Armstrong's conference?
"Monday has all the makings of another epic risk off day..."
Just more Zerohedge hyperbole.
How many times will people keep falling for the same old false alarms?
Every single weekend or every single new piece of "meaningless" data that comes out, ZH calls for an "epic, risk off collapse" that never materializes. Everyone in the comments laughs at the "idiots" who went long over the weekend...only to come back bitching 3 days later after the market rallies back.
Everyone here acts like it's a big secret that the world economy is in trouble or that banks are undercapitalized. I'm not saying it's "priced in" but it's damn well known by most (if not all) big money players, and certainly those who run the HFTs.
From the recent highs, the market is actually outperforming gold and silver. OMGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG flame away!!!
Gold has crushed the past 10 years but if you go back 20 years or 25 years or 30 years stocks have done pretty well also. Seems odd to cherry pick the bottom of the gold market and compare it to stocks and use that as your example of how great gold is.
I'm not sure what everyone here envisions happening...will the market suddenly drop 45% in a week? You really think that will happen? And gold and silver will go to the moon at the same time? Uh..no. Gold/silver will go high only if more printing/QE comes.
Gold does typically better in deflation than inflation. Mish has written quite a bit about this
Monday does have the potential to be a big risk off day. That ! = collapse. That is your word. Do you even understand what the words "risk off" and "hyperbole" mean??
"The need to rescue Dexia is symbolic of the uncertainty that characterises the banking sector," said Eric Galiegue, president of Valquant, an independent research firm. "Who would have imagined that a bank so linked with European construction would end up being dismantled?"
Valquant!
go ahead! make slewie's day!
next weeks' survival gear:
hyperbolic, BiCheZ!
Word.
Word2
Got to give credit where credit is due. Lots more money to be made as a bull these last few months. BTFD ruled. The deal for me is though that I can't BTFD for ethical reasons. For me, BTFD means I support this bullshit system.
Maybe I am just an idiot? If so then I am an idiot who still has a conscience worthy of my own respect.
The crash will come. Maybe not for another 10 bizarre years, but it will come. In the mean time its maybe better to deal with now and make the best of what IS good..Family, friends, cats and negative views of our fellow human beings?
see "fractal trader" above. also "look up term fractal" while you're at it. the term has had enormous implications for financial markets going back decades.
For all that time until 2008 or so the great leverage rollercoaster was on its way up, almost without interruption. Now it's going down, inexorably and far down, though the steepness and straightness of the descent aren't clear yet. I don't claim to know what will happen to gold; I can't even tell you that the future won't hold (for example) a stampede into equities at some point. But it seems more than probable that whatever does happen next, the last 30 years (in Europe and the US) won't be much of a guide. Different things are going to happen, and even when some of the same things happen it will be for different reasons.
I really don't know if it will happen. Why presume it obviously won't happen at some point during what is likely the greatest financial crisis in human history (™ 2011 Bank of England)? Because it didn't in the previous 30 years - like, say, a US-wide drop in house prices? Will a 45% decline kick off this Monday morning? Very probably not. But as d00daa pointed out, TD predicted a probable move down on Monday, not Day 1 of TEOTWAWKI. He could be wrong about that too, but it's not very convincing to suggest that because TD (and the ZH commentators!) can't flawlessly call every daily move in the markets, therefore it's safe to ignore his (say) 3-6 month outlooks. Let alone to rest easy that all our troubles are mostly priced in and the future is going to be okay.
i m proud of my country for a second, hope that it lasts and occupy ws too. Greeting from Slovakia ZHss.
I adore a killer ass.
And Monday the bond market is closed. They will paper this over. We need Spain to start talking of default with their broken banks before MSM picks it up. They just keep whistling past the graveyard.
... czytac i liczyc
I can read and I can count.
EFSF has already entered into force :)
thanks to the Flying Dutchman
do you know your three Rs?
or just one?
http://www.efsf.europa.eu/attachments/efsf_framework_agreement_consolida...
Thanks for this. Extracting the relevant part and adding some highlighting:
The EFSF's not an EU instrument, so the EU's approval rules don't apply to it. Mind you, since it's a completely lawless endeavour anyway, it's not clear if complying or not complying with the text of the agrrement makes any difference.
...ufff
it is nice to see a sibling soul
the only unknown is "which have provided Commitment Confirmations"
in the part highlighted above
we will never know who has not faxed (or e-mailed) this piece of info yet
until it is over
all we know is that the stance of Malta and Slovakia can not block the expansion of EFSF
the block can come only from the states that already have ratified the expansion in their parliament but are holding on providing the "Commitment Confirmations"
Looks like more "natural resource" and "anti-dollar" hedge funds could get Amaranthed next week.
Another week where Fiat Paper reigns supreme over "Things".
All the gold-clutching anarchists better hope for a massive bailout, huge printing, and an even bigger expansion of the Fed powers and Fed balance sheet that could ignite a massive stock market short covering rally.
That is really the only hope left for the gold bulls to avoid further annihilation.
Actually, no.
Gotcha now robo. Which Tyler plays you?
Further declines in paper gold/silver will just push up physical premiums, which are already at 18% and rising.
Where are you buying your gold?
On APMEX which has the highest premiums in my opinion they are 4.5% over spot for single 1OZ Canadian Maples if paying by check or wire. Also about 3.7% over spot if buying 50 or more.
http://www.apmex.com/Product/9/1_oz_Gold_Canadian_Maple_Leaf___Random_Year.aspx
About 4% over at trustedbullion.com (wsp2) with 5OZ min order.
http://www.trustedbullion.com/precious-metals/gold
Are you telling me I could have been buying gold from these places and scoring a 14% ROI by flipping them to you?
You can always make money if you are willing to buy in quantity, repackage and resell. It just depends on what you want to spend your time doing.
I'd bet that you could buy a monster box of ASEs and some Air-tite holders in bulk, repack them and sell on eBay for a 20% ROI (before they take whatever their cut is, of course.) You could probably do even better if you set up one of those little kiosks in a mall and got the lighting right.
I do ok in my trades, regardless of what spot price says on any given day- it's a matter of presentation, convienience, and the added value of encasing the silver. Air-tites are cheap in bulk, but they add a lot of gravitas to a coin. I also only deal in transactions for physical goods, not currency. Refusing dollars outright lends credibility to the transactions- and it's a genuine refusal, not just a negotiating ploy, so it doesn't smell like BS to people.
Not a gold trader, myself- I'm just not feeling it, and the incremental values are just too high for my area. It's a rare day when I run into someone who has $170 on any given day any more- much less $1700 in goods or currency. But it looks like the percentages are roughly equivalent.
I know you were probably being flip, but it's probably a really good idea for anyone holding physical metal to get familiar with the mechanics of trading with them before a crisis situation hits. As things stand now, you can always buy more to replace any coins traded away, and the newly purchased coins will be worth more because you have added knowledge to your stash, and can make a better trade later. Face-to-face specie transactions are not like clicking a button on a mouse, they require a little salesmanship, banter and finesse- or else you'll end up selling to store owners at a discount, and they will eat your lunch.
Learned that lesson the hard way in 2008, when I wanted to liquidate some copper scrap. That "red gold" was about as useful as a third nipple- it came back, but I no longer needed cash. If I knew then what I know now, it would have been invaluable, and might have kept me from living on the edge of starvation for a couple of months (it was due to a divorce, not the market- the market crash was just making asset sales difficult.)
I hear ya on the divorce. I've never been married myself due to the horror stories I've heard. I've heard people say "You think you've heard people lose their shirts in the stock market? Get married and get taken to the cleaners"
I don't know why people are paying 18% over spot when I've found it online for as cheap as 3% over spot from trusted dealers.
"It's a rare day when I run into someone who has $170 on any given day"
So retail isn't buying gold @ $1650 p/o when they can't even feed themselves. Don't forget the number of people on food stamps in America is equal to the population of Colombia.
Is Colombia anywhere near Columbia like Slovakia is near Slovenia?
You found a typo.
Don't dislocate your shoulder patting yourself on the back.
Sorry Bob, it was a cheap shot. If I didn't have spell-check, my posts would be a lot worse.
I do agree that many here on ZH seem to overpay on PMs. Maybe it has to do with where
you live. I have found it worth while to shop around. Silver is very scarce at this price level
but I was lucky to find some 90% today @ 22x.
you. are. an. idiot.
I don't like you. Find acceptance somwhere else.
Oh my lord. Robot troll still talking about gold. The same guy who was running red lights in La to get to the coin shop when gold hit 1200 as his guru told him it would crash! Then he tells everyone to pile in at the top in garbage like lulu,Netflix, etc.
Let me educate ya robot. What's coming is a 100 trillion fiat printathon. Yes, 100 trillion, cause that is the number of the derivative bomb that is set to blow.
And the very moment the shit looks like it's getting a tidge too close to the fan, the printing shall commence. Why by gosh and by Jove, the BoE just announced this last week.....
Oh never the fuck mind.
Slovakia the next obstacle for the euro. Armageddon! Oh no, the Slovaks will get some exception: agree but not pay. Problem solved. No eurocollapse.
I've said it before and I say it now.
You are a dickhead.
This time you are a dickhead with herpes.
Mark my words: Slovakia is toast for the eurozone.
Marked.
Look with amazement at this dickhead.
http://vietnam-war.commemoration.gov.au/vietnam-war/images/ekn_67_0130_v...
Wow, Robo and Unamazed side by side. Ominous.
The shills are out in full force... This story is about to take them all down..
... zaglebic sie w szczegoly
If you really want to know what is going on across the ocean you need to shift the spotlight to those EZ states
that have already ratified the EFSF but are still sitting on their "Commitment Confirmation"
I am only guessing that currently a serious effort is being undertaken to compare the French and German versions of the EFSF Agreement, to find out whether there is a way to support certain banks without imposing a Greek like "austerity programme" treatment.
Hopefully some solution can be found (unless the "Commitment Confirmations" are all in, then the dish is cooked)
Is YouTube down?
Whay happened to YouTube?
works just fine fine over here
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AUO_5EALZoM
all of us need more cowbell :)
Used your link from Ireland.
Not working.