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Did The Fed Leak The European Bailout Decision On Monday Morning? A Visual Exhibit
We talked about the total disconnect between US equities and the rest of the global financial market on Monday morning. At the time, many market participants commented that they had not seen this kind of disconnect so broadly and how strange it was - and with reasonable volume (unusual for an upswing). Well, now we have some details on what exactly was said and done on Monday with the Fed decision, perhaps it is clear that someone somewhere was tipped off that this was coming as the rest of the world's risk assets leaked inexorably lower and US equities hugely outperformed.
Instead of comparing ES (the e-mini S&P Futures Contract) against each and every risk asset, we use CONTEXT (which attempts to aggregate many of the global risk drivers into one indicator). Its clear at least from the chart that regimes shifted dramatically on Monday and we also noted that European equities were so dramatically disconnected from credit that evidently someone was 'guessing' really well with a large amount of flow.
Chart: Bloomberg
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nah, pure coincidence.
..now back to my porn.
Must... stuff... debt... hole... with... fiat... (gasp!)
if it looks like a piece of shit, smells like a piece of shit, then its gotta be the Bernank
Politicians can't stop being what they are: a bunch of greedy bastards.
More properly known as power-hungry tools.
You cannot trade this market anymore without insider information, and this demonstrates it.
Sudden, arbitrary intervention that undoubtedly buried many investors who had made rational investment decisions based upon the realities of the market. People working in favor of actual price discovery, real fundamentals, demonstrated price action, all suddenly fucked because a handful of madmen around the world think they can centrally plan the global economy. And they call this a rescue? Only for morons who were long the wrong stocks.
Look I know these people and I can categorically assure you that they are of the finest fucking integrity, and that they would die before doing such a thing...
and my appointment to Treasury Secretary comes in 5.. 4... 3... 2...
Scum.
Gotta have Lunch with Hank.
Price action Friday and Sunday said this was a fed move.
Retail movement/reactions are gone.
And to think...the downgrade of the banks rating JUST BEFORE this. Talk about a paper-over, dilution of news cycle and orchestrated POS.
Who has the playbook? I wanna know what is next too!!!
down is the new up
I just met with someone who works for a bank here in New Zealand - he's not a trader, he's on a product development side so he's pretty disinterested in markets.... but anyway, he tells me that on Monday (i.e. Sunday in the USA) his office was TOLD that the banking downgrades were about to take place !
I agree. People with power and influence never get together and use their combined knowledge to profit. Racer, that would be unethical. </sarc>
Yup. There will never be rational markets, because people with power and influence can't make a buck without exercising that power and influence on a market that otherwise would be a level playing field.
Markets always were, and always will be, fixed.
How do you like your job at the SEC?
Why am I not surprised?
Of course there was leakage. That's part of their "expectations/confidence/management". Fed, Treas, Admin, Congress (except Paul) all wink wink nod nod.
And this surprises whom?
Uhm ... it would surprise CNBC if they weren't too busy not reporting on this...
It WAS mentioned this morning by that funny looking guy with the bit o' white in his chinny-chin-chin lip hair. That Pete Najarian fella. He did raise an eyebrow in mentioning it and look longingly at the camera ("Look at me! I know something you don't"). That was all. No follow up, of course. That would indicate a confirmation of market collusion, and we shall not have any of that.
How did we miss it?
We should have listened to Todd Martin.
Does a stick smell like shit when it's stuck in someone's ass?
Only if you pull it out and sniff it. I'd advise against such action.
Unfortunately, this chart is as helpful as Robo's hindsight predictions.
http://capitalcontext.com/intraday/intraday-context
There, is this more helpful?
Meh
Is it their fault that they all came to the same brilliant conclusion at the same time?
That is part of their, " improving communication with the public."
It's leaked in order to strengthen the banks' balance sheets. Prop trading and so forth.
Leaked to strengthen bonuses, is likelier.
Any chance of this compressing in the near future? I think, yes.
No oversight of the Fed... I'm not suprised. Lets just keep watching bond yields in Europe, they'll have to do a LOT more to fix the Euro problems.
This is the best Bernanke can do. Make NO mistake leaking this decision was part of his effort. This was a coordinated effort and a coordinated leak.
Don't forget Bernanke's 3rd and most important mandate: "wealth effect".
Despite his 2002 speech he knows that it will be the end of the Fed as we know it if he actually started directly buying EU debt.
This is an election year, with 9% unemployment and record deficits, Geithner can't spend one single YANK cent on bailing out the EU without killing Obama's 2nd term dream.
So here it is boys and girls, the desperate act of a desperate Central Bankers.
November fund statements will be mailed tomorrow. Allowing the Season of Shopping to continue unimpeded. Exactly what Bernanke wanted.
This is why Princeton is ranked 1st college in the country. They teach you how to cheat.
And now we have a selling opportunity. I sold out today. When a dividend settles on the 5th, I'm out of the brokerage account. The markets will never be a safe sandbox until the crooks are gone, therefore I probably will never be going back.
IMO, bullish for selected rural real estate because trust in "systems" will be deteriorating even further and whatever money is left has to be somewhere along with hard assets, food, water filters, etc. I wish I owned a water well company.
Maybe this should be rebranded as QE 3....not the "coordinated action by 6 central banks", not we should just call it something that sheeple can relate to.
HOW DARE you implicate the Fed in fraudulent activity. Oh wait, our entire monetary system is a fraud? Carry on, then.
I'm curious about the 190,000 Jan call options on BAC opened up yesterday.
I'd take that as a sign that the bank is trying to profit from vol, so when vol does drop buy some puts.
I'm sure it's just someone hedging themselves. Nothing to see here. Apart from a fleet of helecopters.
whatever they do ...we are more likely to have a HUGE DOLLAR RALLY ....look at the charts ......this could play out ::::
is that a HUGE INVERSE HnS in the dollar charts ???
http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/2011/11/potential-huge-inverse-hns-in-dollar.html
Still can't figure out how the likelihood of a major European bank failure is worth 400+ pts on the Dow. Doesn't sound like good news but I guess in this crazy old world, it is.
dontcha know, pensions are heavily in equities and they control large voting blocks, gotta keep the sheep all pointed in one direction...to the slaughter (post election). TPTB can't be all that concerned with equities, they go after real assets.
I can think of a way. The market usually turns on any belief that is too widely held. Everyone believes this bailout is going to work.. for now. The market USUALLY proves you wrong. You would think it would be easier to make money knowing that :(
There should be a Johnny Carson "fork in the road" a bit after 9:00.
I accepted this thesis on faith, now I know there was a leak and I believe.
"Bandaid!"
"No tourniquet?"
"Not this time, it's only a severed arm."
"Just a flesh wound" - The Black Knight
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKhEw7nD9C4
Na....
Your goverment would not leak this info,I am sure.
The "FED" is your Goverment,is it not...?
Silly fucking rabbits.
I mean sheep,that fuck like rabbits.
Last I heard, it was a corporation owned by a bunch of eh, you-know-what...
I am going back to my hole now...
fast finger, sorry...
We neither admit nor deny that this information was released to certain private interests before being released to the public. Oh, and we promise never to do it again.
Yup. Must have been the Olestra soaked pork rinds they were serving as snacks.
Even they leaked it, it wasn't a crime. They are all out of law.
Just standard procedure.
bailouts and rumors of bailouts
This same shit show happened last September, the day before the QE2 announcement. There was one day in paticular that had massive volume to the upside at the last minute of trading.
If anything, this crisis has shown that the markets have never been free, and that DC controls all rules of the game. Can't say I'd be sad if someone vaporized DC seeing as how it is the largest concentration of criminals in the US.
Beware of the suited, cigarette smoking men in the black sedan outside your house.
*peeking out the window*
You'd think they'd be a bit more subtle in pulling off these things, but with the SEC on holiday season schedule there will be nobody to look into the situation. Ain't no law that can't be skirted in this market environment. There is no insider trading when you are both the insider AND the trader.
Hmm, because of those thugs I lost money while shorting stocks, I guess I will have to compensate myself by paying less taxes this year.
Well, corn is nearly two points over. All this means is my retail price for corn seed is going to go from expensive to mortgage breaking.
CORN FUTURE (USd/bu.) 614.500 9.000 1.49% 11:07Take the 614 x 3.8 and that is now the cost of cured corn seed on husk. Although the multiplier now is only 3.8, with the "free ride" given, the multiplier is now 18.5. To put it bluntly next year nobody in north america eats cheaply.
This will destroy the dining out experience and the dining in.
I hope most of you know how to bake bread, because this type of price hike destroys bakeries.
The biggest loser show should incorporate fat people running from crowds of emaciated hungry people as part of their work out regime.
Oats up too.
If the FED did leak would it matter?
Who would prosecute them?
Exactly. No one. They are TPTB.
Right. Remember this brilliant little epigram of John Harington (also spelled Harrington) (4 August 1561 – 20 November 1612)
"Treason doth never prosper: what’s the reason? Why, if it prosper, none dare call it treason."
Strangely enough, Harington was also the inventor of the flush toilet ... so I guess he had it covered coming and going, eh wot?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Harington_%28writer%29
37 canary’s were sent down the mine shaft, they almost lost one.
The downgrade from S&P came as a new study showed that Switzerland's banking industry risks losing out on almost Sfr50bn (£35bn) in assets as new tax accords with Britain and Germany prompt wealthy clients to withdraw money, according to a new study.
This is why we all sit at our company owned desks all day, drinking stale ass coffee, posting on fucking zerohedge watching our upvote count, and the inside money men that run this muther fucker smoke cigars and get BJ's at lunch while sipping Dom and throwing back oysters and caviar topped Carr's table water crackers.
If you aren't in the club by now, you never will be.
Caviar is the most disgusting shit I've ever tasted. Never understood why people eat it. I guess it let's sadistic people imagine they are chewing the fetus of the middle and lower class.
Damn! Nothing like puffing on nice big stogie with a great shaggy mass of brunette hair buried in you crotch. Lucky crooks!
I guess I shouldn't be surprised, but the blatant, unadulterated, in-your-fucking-face fraud still strikes me cold and leaves me wondering what they won't do to line their own pockets.
Congress
There will ALWAYS be leakage on moves like this. The bailout participants don't just show up. There are discussions, procedures and processes laid out, cover stories, out strategies, preselection of fall guys, etc...
With the sheer number of institutions involved, along the way, someone is going to let slip what is up, intentionally or unintentionally.
If we can invade Europe without the Germans being any wiser, they can do this stuff and keep it quiet. Maybe if they renamed it "treason" instead of "insider trading", they could keep some civility in the markets. If some MPs with M16s showed immediately, instead of SEC suits -- eventually, they could maintain some secrecy.
DOW +400 today...only leaves it down about 2100 points since the 2007 high. And we've spent (gone in more debt) how much to accomplish this feat of magic?
There really must be blood on the street before things change. Mass apathy while the privileged steal and plunder like there's no tomorrow. This feels like the eve of empire's end.
And people are still embattled in their petty quarrels between tea party and OWS. What the fuck.
Well said.
Leak it? Obama said America stands ready to help in the EU crisis. You'd have to be asleep if you didn't think he knew.
This is why I love zerohedge, thanks Tyler!
Speaking of "Context" how does it compare to Gartman's new ETNs, risk ONN and risk OFF ? Maybe some of us little people could use these ETNs to play the spread between CONTEX and the ES.
'the rich are getting richer, and the poor are getting drunk'
paul westerberg
Heh, where's the outrage OWS'ers and Neocons? Or, are you just tickled that you can now be temporarily guiltless about savoring your superfluous xmas doodads and bloodshed?
Banana Republic, full on !! Banksters and politicians colluding : 0.01% against... all the rest !!
PPT and PWG the new SS of the new regime fed-- they get compensated well for doing the bidding of schemes that only serve to manipulate markets and ultimately price-- prices we as the plebs have to now pay for.
The corruption in the Fed & the Obama Regime is transparent to all, except to leftist trash, like in the OWS slums!
Why don't you find your rock and crawl back under it....
So all you FBI might consider going after some big fish rather than wasting your time with us peons on a minor blog site.
Insider trading on nonpublic information is a crime.
That was surely a rhetorical question.
"""""""Well, now we have some details on what exactly was said and done on Monday with the Fed decision, perhaps it is clear that someone somewhere was tipped off that this was coming as the rest of the world's risk assets leaked inexorably lower and US equities hugely outperformed.""""""
I think that is pretty much a "given". The report yesterday, just for one example, re: Paulson's disclosure to his buddies, is amazing that this finally comes out and allowed to be "Swept Under The Rug".
There is one other point and I've mentioned this several times. It is one thing to hear or read about all the Winning days that X-Big Bank/Broker had in the past month.
We don't get to learn what the Big Boyz made in their Personal Accounts, be they off-shore, secreted, in whatever name. They have the benefit of making their "Bets" prior to pressing the Buttons for the Company or PPT's Big Bets
As a private institution, isn't the Fed subject to insider trading laws? Isn't the provision of insider information to others so they could benefit a crime? Are the FBI and SEC investigating the FOMC? Who's got Ron Paul on their speed-dial?
<=== tyler is full 0'poo; so is zH!
<=== i feel better, now; i thought i was losing it, there...waaay too many wtf's , even for month-end; the bankster criminality theory explains 100%, once again!
Don't be surprised to hear in the near future the killing Warren & George made with wise moves in late November.
How else could their good friend Ben Bernanke gaurantee these crooks their year end bonus?
nothing will happen and nothing will be investigated. it will be as if you never even mentioned it. the congressman & senators are immuned from insider trading and therefore participated happily in the "wealth effect" as their wealth undoubtedly increased during this. As for banks and hedge funds, well, as long as you're told my a government "crony", and you've made your donation to the Obama '12 campaign, you're in the clear as well. Bravo.
............Did the Bear shit in the woods..........?
If you can figure this out......
You got your answer....
In France there were the Kings who could inflict life and death at their whims to their subjects. Eventually then the people had enough rose up and cut off their heads. The same thing will happen to these modern day kings called central banks, they hold the life of investors in their hands and as you said redpill, they are actively working against rational investors. It is time to cut off the heads of the snakes
Just wondering - would it be illegal to leak such an inforamtion ? IMHO the answer is not obivous.
The elite have been cheating for decades. They tip each other off all the time and coordinate their activities for their own gain.
It is time for the public to rise up. JOIN:
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Gun-Owners-for-a-Gold-Standard/180803025347901
I read through every one of these comments looking for MillionDollarBonus and his/her "magical" spin on how necessary all this intervention has become.
I can't handle the truth... the anxiety is overwhelming me. Where's my spin godammit?
Anxiety- here's the fix. I got a hot tip today from a trusted broker-
"Liquidate everything, fly to Vegas, put it on RED."
Win or lose, the bullshit's over.
What is 'funny' is that they are prepared to wait 48 hours in order to announce something they have already decided. Why :
a) Because then they actually get two bangs for the same buck - i.e. the risk pop on the rumour/inside trade, and then the further pop on the announcement, and also
b) Because then it will be such a huge time gap that everyone will have totally forgotten about Monday's move and won't be able to put 2 and 2 together. Why, it's simply scandalous for ZH to suggest such a leak could have occurred !
Tyler(s), did you guys see the volume that went off in BAC calls on Tuesday? Jon Najarian was talking about how abnormal it was on his twitter feed yesterday, it was a mystery. Almost twice as many calls traded as puts, 371k calls compared to 194k puts. There was 192k in the Jan 6 calls alone, here's a pic (link courtesy of Najarian)...
http://yfrog.com/nttwvzp
Guess it's not so mysterious now.
How long does this bounce in equities last? Shouldn't be long before people say WTF has actually changed?
Maybe they're then pile into gold and silver?
I noticed that something was up in the forex markets when they opened on the US Sunday.