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Did Fitch Just End Europe's Hope For LTRO3?

Tyler Durden's picture


While it will come as no surprise to ZeroHedge readers (as we discussed why LTRO3 is not coming here and here), it would appear that the ability to turn worthless assets into useful liquidity via a raft of collateralized lending operations with the ECB is at an end. As Fitch's, MD of financial institutions Bridget Gandy just confirmed:

"Some of the European banks are becoming short on collateral to pledge with the ECB, unless they can delever and sell some of their assets, which is difficult."

Of course this means the banks that need the facilities the most are now in dire need to sell assets and delever further exaggerating the vicious circle in Europe's symbiotic banking-sovereign relationship. Without postable collateral, there can be no more help from the ECB to the banks and thus any further banking system help will further subordinate the sovereign (hence our call to swap into non-local law bonds) since it will necessarily need to be funneled through them (a la Spain). Once more the ball ends up in Bernanke's lap.


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Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:17 | 2520292 Tom Servo
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Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:35 | 2520333 The Monkey
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We already know how this ends. The central bankers print. Why is this the only outcome? Because it's expedient. Does it solve anything? No. Will it lift asset prices even higher? Probably.

It doesn't matter what fiscal policy makers do, or don't do. Central banks have shown that they will step up every time.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 00:33 | 2520430 The Big Ching-aso
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"Once more the ball ends up in Bernanke's lap."..............

Correction:  "Once more the ball ends up in U.S. Taxpayer's lap."


Wed, 06/13/2012 - 02:18 | 2520603 macholatte
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Yup! One way or the other it will be the American Tax Payer who gets hosed, and that's a dying breed.


"Some of the European banks are becoming short on collateral to pledge with the ECB, unless they can delever and sell some of their assets,....


What sort of assets could they sell; stocks, bonds, gold, silver???






Wed, 06/13/2012 - 02:24 | 2520608 The Big Ching-aso
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Lattes, truffles, and beer.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 06:10 | 2520716 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

tickets to Davos 2012 must be worth a few Euros

it's a declining Club, there's probably some floating around for a refund with Draghi

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 06:48 | 2520765 markmotive
markmotive's picture

They'll reduce collateral requirements then, won't they?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:17 | 2520293 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Fuck you Bernanke!

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:33 | 2520329 Dr. Engali
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I wonder if we can do a search on the Hedge to tell us how many times that's been typed. I'm not knocking you,I agree, but I do see that a lot.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:46 | 2520364 JLee2027
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Google says about 150,000. Doesn't count the rehypothecated ones though.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 02:29 | 2520611 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Oh, make no mistake Bernanke has balls ...

on his chin ...

central banker 101 ..

WTF do you think Greenspan bailed? LOL!



Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:19 | 2520294 b-rad-is-rad
b-rad-is-rad's picture

"The Fed can inject money into the economy in still other ways. For example, the Fed has the authority to buy foreign government debt, as well as domestic government debt. Potentially, this class of assets offers huge scope for Fed operations, as the quantity of foreign assets eligible for purchase by the Fed is several times the stock of U.S. government debt.16

I need to tread carefully here. Because the economy is a complex and interconnected system, Fed purchases of the liabilities of foreign governments have the potential to affect a number of financial markets, including the market for foreign exchange. In the United States, the Department of the Treasury, not the Federal Reserve, is the lead agency for making international economic policy, including policy toward the dollar; and the Secretary of the Treasury has expressed the view that the determination of the value of the U.S. dollar should be left to free market forces. Moreover, since the United States is a large, relatively closed economy, manipulating the exchange value of the dollar would not be a particularly desirable way to fight domestic deflation, particularly given the range of other options available. Thus, I want to be absolutely clear that I am today neither forecasting nor recommending any attempt by U.S. policymakers to target the international value of the dollar.

Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it's worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon against deflation. A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt's 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation. The devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply it permitted ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly. Indeed, consumer price inflation in the United States, year on year, went from -10.3 percent in 1932 to -5.1 percent in 1933 to 3.4 percent in 1934.17 The economy grew strongly, and by the way, 1934 was one of the best years of the century for the stock market. If nothing else, the episode illustrates that monetary actions can have powerful effects on the economy, even when the nominal interest rate is at or near zero, as was the case at the time of Roosevelt's devaluation."


-Da Helicopter

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:34 | 2520332 lasvegaspersona
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A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt's 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation.


you left out the part about the seizure/theft  of thousands of tons of gold from US citizens...try that again?...did not think so...

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 00:07 | 2520407 CompassionateFascist
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Roosenfelt's stabilization of the Depression endured only until 1937; then the Central Planning Ponzi collapsed again, and it took a World War to recover. That option - tho it may happen anyway, through drift and accident - is no longer open. 

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 02:38 | 2520615 CrazyCooter
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There is a reason for this ...



Wed, 06/13/2012 - 00:04 | 2520401 The Monkey
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Let's see if they can pull all that off while keeping the long end of the treasury curve anchored. We already saw what happened during QE2, and it is nominal rates that pose the greatest risk to housing.

They are threading the needle with large scale asset purchases. Rewarding the long junk bonds / short treasury trade seems "iffy" as ongoing policy (& just as Gross has Mom and Pop all loaded up).

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:20 | 2520300 Poor Grogman
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Who needs collateral when the PTB have millions of willing debt slave sheeple to pledge as future collateral.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 01:36 | 2520525 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

That's right!

If the sheeple take their cash out of the banks AND,
Stop paying taxes and their mortgages

then the debt slaves as future collateral model is gone and the gig is truly up.

Until then bailouts rule.

My Personal viewpoint only.

Edit you just got me thinking...

Couldn't that be a possible end game????

A feedback spiral where sheeple rebel against paying Anything, as the bailouts are seen as easy solutions. thus less and less in real terms flows to "the system" in the form of taxes and interest. While the bailouts cause higher inflation resulting in less purchasing power for People and government, which in turn creates a greater need for bailouts to provide a level of Social services to the public who then vote for...

even more government spending and bailouts,

hyper inflationary voter initiated bail out currency death spiral.

Kind of has a ring to it don't you think?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 02:48 | 2520616 CrazyCooter
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I dont see how a rebellion is necessary, at least as far as making the system implode goes.

As I understand it, the system has to grow, year over year, forever. When it stops growing (i.e. debt), it starts to implode. Too many years of not enough borrowing, and the contraction starts. Once the contraction gains enough momentum, BB and his BlackHawk can't make a shits worth of difference.

The system relies on indvidiuals, behaving a particular way. BB can not force GMaw in middle america to borrow money. He can only make rates cheap. BB can not inspires businesses to borrow to expand. He can only make rates cheap.

And you know what? Barry O fucked BB in the ass. The big Red White and Blue Dick, shoved right up his ass.

God I love the smell of socialism in the morning!



Wed, 06/13/2012 - 03:57 | 2520650 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

That's right they can't force people to borrow money or act in a certain way.

But governments are a different animal altogether, we have clearly seen since 2008 what most governments do when the going gets tough.

They borrow and spend, and the cartel supports them.

if one major country breaks away from the script, will the other debtors follow and bring the whole ponzi down?

Is there enough political will, or will of the sheeple to bring the collapse on and thus to bring on a depression the likes of which has never been seen. While at the same time leaving most of the mechanics of the ponzi intact, such as fictional reseve banking?

Or will all the sheeple just continue to demand more and more of the system until the whole thing just disintegrates into wheelbarrow confetti.

My bet is on the latter


Wed, 06/13/2012 - 04:03 | 2520652 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

As I understand it, the system has to grow, year over year, forever. When it stops growing (i.e. debt), it starts to implode.


Save that growth in US citizen economics is achieved the US citizen way: by dismissing the decrease.

So it is quite funny to read US citizen screamers trying to evade what they know.

The system is defined through borders, an exterior, an interior.

A matter of definition. The current stage is about determining who is part of the interior and who is not.

The US will grow if they manage to kick Europe out of the interior. The system will keep growing. It will simply no longer include Europe.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 04:31 | 2520662 Poor Grogman
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I think I understand what you are trying to get at, but where does that leave Chinese citizen

Inside or outside?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 06:47 | 2520764 Bobbyrib
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"The US will grow if they manage to kick Europe out of the interior. The system will keep growing. It will simply no longer include Europe."

Growing without Europe as Europe falls into a depression is a dream. If deflation is the end game and they don't print, meet the end game.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:21 | 2520302 wisefool
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Fitch was the agency that did not downgrade the USA, but they told maria bartiromo it is bizzare you dont have a consumption tax in america.

Why dont we tax the Fed's bailouts? Geithner needs to resign long before Holdner does.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:21 | 2520304 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

What a damn mess.  This is the kind of stuff that ends up in violence.

Forests have fires and the forest regenerates. Nature has a recycling mechanism, a way of balancing things.

We mortals are probably in line for a little shake up.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 00:49 | 2520463 The Monkey
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How did we get to a place where the only viable strategy is to perpetuate a ponzi system? Each administration and several generations of central bankers bought into the fallacy that it was was desirable to manage the economic cycle by stimulating credit growth when the cycle turned down.

As it turns out, we should have let some of those earlier downturns run their natural course without stimulating credit.

Oh well, it's a moot point now.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:21 | 2520305 junkyardjack
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I just heard a rumor that ECB will accept cum filled socks as collateral.  Bullish!

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:26 | 2520318 Alpo for Granny
Alpo for Granny's picture

"I just heard a rumor that ECB will accept cum filled spiderman towels as collateral.  Bullish!" <-----all fixed now.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:35 | 2520335 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Too bad Italy got rid of Silvio.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 02:59 | 2520623 CrazyCooter
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Oddly enough, he must have been in the way? A patriot for Italy?



Disclaimer: Ben Franklin philandered a bit himself.

Disclaimer-er: Ben Franklin was not so ostentatious about it as to earn a nick name like bunga bunga. I mean, there is classy way to womanize, then there is pimping.

I mean, some times women like a classy man, even if it is an affair. But, I suppose, other women like a Ben Franklin.

Stay classy ZH!

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:22 | 2520308 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

The fuse on that stick of dynamite is getting mighty short.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:31 | 2520311 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Just fucking print Ben,and send the whole stinking system down the drain! Do it now before I have to make another mortgage payment!

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:37 | 2520337 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

August, not June.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:43 | 2520350 Dr. Engali
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I agree it will be in August, but I'm growing impatient. I'm hoping for the surprise mega print. Like 4 trillion dollar print.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:50 | 2520371 JLee2027
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At this point, does it make sense to pay the mortgage? The system is folding, putting the bank out of business before they can complete the foreclosure.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 06:50 | 2520767 Bobbyrib
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If they kick the can and he doesn't pay they take his house and he loses all of the equity. Do not make any irrational decisions. You can't time the market or the ponzi collapse. You just have to sit and wait.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 01:00 | 2520477 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

I don't think it will be a surprise for everyone.  I think this was overlooked:  Bullish butterfly spread in SLV

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:24 | 2520314 Conman
Conman's picture

As we have seen, +500 points on the dow on frontrunning QE is good enough. Dont have to actually do it.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:25 | 2520315 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Collateral ? Don't need no stinking collateral! Just print!

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:27 | 2520320 Timmay
Timmay's picture

Romney on record saying he will not re nominate Bernanke if he is elected. What if old Uncle Ben decides to just say FUCK IT, let it burn and we (Central bank Cartel) will buy it all later on the cheap??

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:40 | 2520344 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

If the reptilian/host exchange goes well we won't even know we still have Bernanke.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:57 | 2520388 GeorgeHayduke
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Yeah and Obama was on record saying he would give us change. Instead we got Bush's 3rd term. I guess the change was the guy delivering the speeches now sounds like a huckster politician instead of an arrogant drunk frat boy. That's the kind of change we can do without.

Romney is likely spouting campaign lies like all the rest of them do. Besides, who's to say Romney won't install and even bigger douchebag than Bernanke?

Regardless of any Fed Chair changes Romney may make, my guess is he will give us the collapse much quicker than Obama and the Dems, especially if he gets a bunch of those flag waving hardcore fascists Rethugs in the House and Senate with him. The Dems likely will muddle through and keep us on the slow collapse track. You can bet those firebrand Rethugs will borrow and spend just like it's 1980 and Reagan got back in. Add a few wars, more police state crap while they talk about freedom, and slashing any "welfare" for all those folks they hate (except war contractors and the Wall Street Boyzzz) and rest assured, the pot will reach the boiling point. Hell, I rarely vote for anyone in the main parties but I'm leaning toward voting for the most retarded, hardcore, right wing nutcases I can find on the ballot just get the first few cards kicked out from the base of this house of cards.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 00:30 | 2520440 JLee2027
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George, you need to get your head out of your ass.  Obama has turned us into a food stamp nation.  This is not Bush's third term. It's not 1980, and your blind hatred of Republicans isn't helping.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 06:55 | 2520771 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

"Obama has turned us into a food stamp nation. "


Riiiight, it wasn't years of cheapening the costs of labor so the 1% could reap almost all of the benefits of our society even more, it was Obama. /sarc.

Have fun voting for Romney, I'm writing in Ron Paul. Where I live Obama will win the state anyway.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 00:52 | 2520468 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Romney will retract. He said what he needed to say in the nomination process.

Romney has already sent signals to Bernanke via his staff. Google it.

Romney and Obama = 2 degrees of difference, 98 degrees of the same.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 01:25 | 2520526 you enjoy myself
you enjoy myself's picture

not sure about that - Romney appears to be legitmately sane, prudent, and thinking on a longer timespan than a 2-week news cycle.  remember that he's on record as saying the best thing that can happen for the housing market is to just let it clear, temporary pain to those underwater be damned.  one, that's 100% correct long term, and two, that's ballsy as hell to say during an election year.  being both correct and brave is not 98% Obama.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 03:03 | 2520628 CrazyCooter
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Put down the crack pipe. Step away from what ever it is you are smoking.

Over a period of 12 months, live in a working class neighborhood, in a common US city.

Return to the forums to report at that time.



Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:33 | 2520324 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

I am stuck on Band Aid brand 'cause Band Aid's stuck on you.

And this one is for Sophist Econidenial.


Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:56 | 2520379 HD
HD's picture

No one does jingles anymore. Sure, today's kids can spell cheese correctly and never go around wishing they were hotdogs - but is that the kind of world we want to live in?

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:30 | 2520326 HD
HD's picture

Unless the EU is willing to send Germany all its gold it's game over - it looks as though Italy doesn't have enough regardless.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 00:27 | 2520338 cranky-old-geezer
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Some of the European banks are becoming short on collateral to pledge with the ECB ...

Yea, everybody (finally) figured out all that sovereign debt paper is worthless.

In the larger picture, both Fed and ECB realize confidence in their currencies is weak, they're near collapse, and any further printing & bailouts like QE3 and LTRO3 might push USD and Euro over the edge.

But without more printing & bailouts the sovereign bond market collapses and governments can't borrow any more money.

Got popcorn?   This could get interesting (finally).

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 02:50 | 2520619 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Sorry for repeating myself, but I seriously doubt that they're out of lame tricks to pull.

I'm almost certain they'll come up with something. For example, can the ECB take a loan from the IMF (or the Fed, etc.) and guarantee for it with gold reserves from its member countries? Or what if Germany cracks and accepts the debt union proposal from PIIGS? They've postponed the inevitable a number of times. I believe this can go on for years...

And if they can't come up with anything, they'll print. I don't know if that belongs to the "finally" category in your book. Admittedly, certain PM holders would be happy.

Tue, 06/12/2012 - 23:43 | 2520354 TheObsoleteMan
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I have always said the ECB is not prepared to deal with this mess, only the central bank of central banks can roll this big a paper {and no, I am not talking about the paper inside Cheech & Chong's "Big Bambu" album, although they may need it}.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 00:06 | 2520409 wisefool
wisefool's picture

How about a good old fashion war? The Royals are doing their part with Pipa's "service" crew waving guns around in open carriages.

See also: cheech at 00:24 in this video Apocalypse Now Helicopter Scene : Gimme Shelter 

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 00:01 | 2520394 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

Will promissory notes work in stead of 'hard' collateral?

But, seriously, isn't some sort of arrangement with the IMF or the Fed (either outright or under the table) th enext step?



Wed, 06/13/2012 - 00:05 | 2520396 Tsunami Effect
Tsunami Effect's picture

I love the way the FED uses the word "purchases."  What a complete joke.  To purchase or buy something you must exchange store of value for good/service/store of value.  Money wasn't the only thing used to "purchase" gold in 1933. 

It was by threat of imprisonment for 10 years or a fine of $10,000 or both!  So Bernanke can put his banker hat on and point to that round of central bank "purchases" as a success without recognizing the looming threat of rotting in a prison cell for a decade while the Govt. seizes every asset you had, including your gold. 

No, it was a "purchase" just like it is today.  Except the Govt. doesn't even have to threaten jail or seizure today b/c it will take your liberty through obamacare, drones, taxes etc. and your assets/savings through inflation, taxes and Govt regulations. 

So, "purchase" away Bernanke, b/c no one can stop the money printing now.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 00:11 | 2520414 q99x2
q99x2's picture

'Once more the ball ends up in Bernanke's lap.'

Then if nationalism in the US returns we get to try him for treason. Oh happy day.


Wed, 06/13/2012 - 00:51 | 2520415 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

No more soccer players to pledge? Why not pledge some politicians? Venizelos has a good weight.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 00:30 | 2520441 Dorky
Dorky's picture

Market going to crash?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 01:38 | 2520540 Dorky
Dorky's picture


Wed, 06/13/2012 - 01:36 | 2520542 Dorky
Dorky's picture

Q: Why the thumbs down?

A: Because there are still bulls around to be slaughtered.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 01:22 | 2520521 turtle777
turtle777's picture

Silver (bullet for Bernanke), bitchez.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 02:28 | 2520609 Ungaro
Ungaro's picture

Help me out here, please. How can the banks run short on collateral? Are we out of ink or paper? Both Spain and Italy print up a bunch of bonds and do a swap, then run to the ECB with the fresh collateral. Whammo -- money for nuttin'.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 06:10 | 2520718 No Euros please...
No Euros please we&#039;re British's picture

Strangely enough that was Spain's plan A, but the ECB are already overloaded with phoney junk bonds and even they realise that when the ponzi collapses, subordination is just a word in the dictionary. So they refused to play the game this time.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 03:14 | 2520634 chump666
chump666's picture

*Greek election risk takes EUR gamma to extremes

Also for all FX traders fat flows going into GBP and Gilts.

Europe is going to be slammed, bull traps set as the HFTs game every sucker till the plug is pulled.

Gonna be messy

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 05:01 | 2520654 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

Re Some of the European banks are becoming short on collateral to pledge with the ECB ...

What amateurs!

Betcha Jon Corzine could "find" something to pledge if he was allowed to rummage thru the customer accounts... ;)

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 04:35 | 2520666 falak pema
falak pema's picture

...Once more the ball ends up in Bernanke's lap...

That says it all... as this ponzi plays out back to where the heart of the financial scam is :

in the US TBTP banksta system and the FED/WS combination, that exported the disease via the surrogate and integrated banking cabal of <Eurozone to the European continent, making hostages of the Euro governments as of 2008, when sovereign debts exploded, from 60% at the core to 90%. For France and Germany alone that represented and increase of 1.3 T euros of additional sovereign debt. For the peripherals it was worse. All that to save the banks. See what happened in Ireland and Portugal, the first to go, and then in Greece a special case; now Spain and Italy. 

What you first sow you will have to reap. And Merkel has no where to run to, nor does Bernanke; its all part of the same scam; potential banking architecture of 30 T Euros in Europe and 70 T + USD  in USA can all go up in smoke, if Greece says "NEIN, Fukk off "next week-end.

ECB is just a front for Deutsch Bank who will not take on total  Euro zone risk whatever FED may say about contagion. So its back to the FED to keep the global electronic funny money ship from keeling over. All the while the rogue HF drill holes into the hull with their mad speculative plays to make more fragile the "central banking cabal" of which they are part and parcel as beneficiaries of ZIRP and 40/1 leverage funding provided by the same PD banks who play both ends of the casino table. Mad logic, madder results as the ship now cracks at the seams. Its truly a mad hatter's ball, or better still, the Vampire's ball! 

Titanic times and apocalyptic chimes.

SOmetimes as financial and geopolitical analysts of this awesome momentum to foggy bottom ZH edits seem to lose focus of what is the cause and what is the effect. But that's just my take.

Euro bashing is a lovely sport and harem women are there to prove that its an historical trait of all hubristic overlords. Mutti Merkel now is no longer lead harem woman on this side of the pond if she does not capitulate to Banksta paranoia on WS front. She is being black listed as the "arrogant, selfish, imperial minded slut" who will bring the EMpire down. Play on...Oligarchy land. 

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 04:55 | 2520674 XRAYD
XRAYD's picture

"symbiotic banking-sovereign relationship" is a PARASITIC relationship with the people.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 05:39 | 2520694 justsayin2u
justsayin2u's picture

Print Igor print we need more liquidity - our euro pump is about to sieze and the only thing that can posssibly save us is more Obama/Bernanke bailout money so print print priiiiiiiiinnnnnnttt.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 05:49 | 2520701 blueridgeviews
blueridgeviews's picture

The banks got themselves into this mess.  Deal with it!!!!!!!~!

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