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Did The Philly Fed Just Signal The End Of Obama's 'Jobs' Recovery?
Hidden under the covers of this morning's already dismal headline print in the Philly Fed data was a considerably worse than expected employment sub-index. Historically this has correlated highly with the non-farm payroll print and suggests (albeit correlation is not causation but gathering real evidence of a slowdown is) that we are heading for a negative print in the next employment report.
(h/t Brad Wishak at NewEdge)
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Very nasty stuff.
It's coming.
The BLS will NOT print negative prior the election. That is not how this game works.
Jim Clifton (CEO of Gallup) says that our leaders are digging in the wrong places re creating jobs, see what he writes in his book:
http://tinyurl.com/83np6p7
Chucky "I Only Care About Wall Street- Fuck Flyover Country" Schumer gave his little bitch Bernank 2 weeks "to get to work."
Will Bernank roll out Mission Impossible QE3 without equity markets tanking, allowing a Hank Paulson v2.0 "martial law & tanks in streets"/GoldmanMorgue gun-to-the-head-of-401(k)s ramping lower moment?
OT:
48 Tons of Silver Recovered From World War II ShipwreckHey at least Gordon Brown isn't around to sell it.
How does GS bitch Schumer and Obama feel about their master sucking up to the Russians on human-rights violations?
http://freebeacon.com/bank-of-putin/
Or how about Mitt Romney? GS is Romney's top contributor, too, at $593,000 and growing:
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres12/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=N00000286
What does our glorious Presidential candidate have to say about this? Or are they both not remotely concerned about human rights?
This election isn't between worse and worser. It's between two shades of evil. I mean really, as bad as they are, the Russians are starting to look like the good guys. What the hell has happened to this country?
Since the first unconstitutional act was comitted by the FEDs long before I was born, we have been "voting" for a different shade of tyranny.
It has been that way for a long time. I would either argue the war of Northern aggression, or to the adopting of the Constitution. When a black man is determined to be something other than a man, you have tyranny.
When you can decide that God gave rights to some but not others, (and this goes on today with us blowing up brown skinned men that wont accept debt for oil), you have tyranny.
Sure the ideas of the Declaration of Independence were sound, but were implemented capriciously. Which started us down the tyrannical road.
pods
"the Russians are starting to look like the good guys." I have been there several times. Believe me, they are NOT the good guys. Russia/Moscow profiles like what the U.S. would look like/will look like when the !@#% really gets bad.
DoChen,
Jim Clifton (CEO of Gallup) says that our leaders are digging in the wrong places re creating jobs, see what he writes in his book:
The sooner people learn that there never has been,never will be any attempt to create jobs, but the opposite,we may finally awaken the Sleeping Giant.
+ 1, DosZap, I concur. Washington, DC has actively been undermining our economy, making things worse.
I did not need Obama's help in helping to found our Peruvian company in 1991, back when he was in diapers...
And many of the answers are NOT in Washington anyway. Clifton argues that it is the cities where large numbers of jobs CAN be created. It's all local, although DC has been actively gumming up the works.
Green Shoots? Bah...
I agree with a big fat bull shit. The bureau of lying shits will NOT print a negative before the erection. Not gonna happen!
unless... Unless the PTB have decided that Willard is supposed to be next figurehead. Then BLS comes out with bad, bad numbers. Will it happen? watch MSM for small stories about Obama's birth cert and or SS#. If these stories don't appear, then no bad numbers. If you start seeing them, then the bad numbers will come.
There will be a Birth/Death model adjustment of a couple 100,000 and that'll fix the headline number... "These aren't the droids you're looking for"
http://weheartit.com/entry/703322
Depends who the BLS is sleeping with, wouldn't put it past the Republicans to pay those BLS guys a few visits... The BLS skews data to their master's wishes...
The BLS needs to change how they arrive at employment numbers by counting all the jobs we created in the Philippines, China, and India. That is a more accurate picture of NFP created by stupid American consumers buying this junk and, this will help Obama which is their job, not to post accurate numbers.
Easy, just drop a million or so workers off the back end and voila! Less than 8% UE.
I thought the BLS was "fixed about as good as LIBOR"? If so "why not show a million jobs"?
Yes they could and they will. Big biz and big banks want Obummer outta the White House SOOOoooo bad they might just crash the equities pre-election. BTFD.
Exactly, any BLS monkey that puts out a negative jobs number before the election will either be sent to run a radar station in Alaska or rended off to Gitmo.
Nor will they print a mediocre to a realistic number - obama wants, and needs a huge QE3 from the FED - this will be the catalyst --- the markets are telegraphing it from the rooftops on Broad & Wall
jmo
The recovery never started!
http://jamesturkblog.blogspot.ca/
Looks bullish for bonds... and equities.
I say old chap...
Would that be "nasty" in the normal sense?
Or "nasty" as in the "gangsta" usage?
Pray tell...
O/T, but speaking of very nasty stuff...
http://www.pantagraph.com/news/national/hot-dry-weather-likely-will-linger-into-fall/article_7d927c54-d1c4-11e1-b20b-001a4bcf887a.html
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Federal weather forecasters predict the unusually hot dry weather that has gripped much of the nation will linger into fall, especially for the parched heartland.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s outlook for August through October shows that nearly every state likely will have hotter than normal temperatures. Much of the Midwest is likely to be drier than normal, too.
The forecast, issued Thursday, indicates a high probability for little rain for all or parts of 15 states for August. The region encompasses Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and Iowa and the states generally surrounding them. The outlook improves a bit over three months, shrinking to just eight states.
Above normal rainfall is forecast for New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Utah and parts of Nevada and southern California through October.
not yet. we need to see a bit more here. certainly trending ugly. the charts can be faked to buy some more time to buy more time.
you are correct, sir
http://dailycaller.com/2012/07/19/usda-partnering-with-mexico-to-boost-food-stamp-participation/
This will help,whoring again for votes.
Agri-Subsidy and Food Stamps
It's freedom, democracy and the American Way ;o)
A negative NFP number combined with a flatline gdp will be enough to get Bernanke involved. Oil and AG can be blamed somewhere and people will buy whatever stupid explanation comes their way.
Get to work Mr. Bernanke
BB knows another QE means food and fuel cost riots.
That's why he passed the buck to Congress...
To you...to me...to me...to you...
All captured live on Chuckle-cam...
Honestly, in watching the tape of his testimony, did Bernanke not have the "holy shit....he's gonna hand me the hot fucking potato" look when schmucky told him to "get busy". That wasn't a happy look for Mr. Keynesian.
Hail to the chief!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwJvxY7uENM&feature=related
As sung by the Mormon Tabernacle Choir? You can NOT make this shit up...
a better version ...http://cosbysweaters.com/2012/07/18/michelle-jennekes-pre-race-routine-i...
The BLS just needs to adjust for the fact that the warm weather created more air conditioning repair jobs and POOF!!!!---> +150,000 jobs print.
Really don't think that's coming?
And where's the money to pay for the repairs gonna come from? You're all poor.
jobs are for suckers!
..."The End of Obama's 'Jobs' Recovery"...
Was there a beginning?
January 2009. He got a job.
sunny
..."The End of Obama's 'Jobs' Recovery "...
Was there a beginning?
No, they just named it incorrectly,
..."The End of Obama's 'Jobs' Destruction"...
Unless he leaves office next January, I believe his jobs destruction has just begun.
Jobs destruction started around 2000. Look at total non-farm employment.
The only "jobs" Obama was ever involved with took place at Man's Country in Chicago.
That's what you get for looking behind the curtain.
But this doesn't mean that the stock market will stop its rally. In fact the pupett masters will be frantically pulling on the strings to lure back in the last of the rally suckers, those poor souls who don't want to "miss the market".
Next sucker stop is S&P 1,400. All aboard!
With much respect CD,
this is the kind of thinkiing that makes a top...
All I know is that the 401K manager came into the office with an actuary touting the great benefits of a profit sharing program. The vehicle for saving in that profit share? The same fucking stocks touted for the 401K plan that not 20% of our employees contribute towards. Snake oil salesmen peddling the same liquid in a different bottle.
Make Mine Freedom! (1948)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ECwYexm-UM (9:30)
Sorry! Forgot the /sarc tag. :>)
No need to stop the rally. Higher they go the more they push out QE which will be far too late.
I would argue that it means the market WON'T stop its rally. The "wealth effect" from equities is the only card Bernanke has left to play.
Does anyone really believe the Fed wasn't involved in the stock market starting in 2009? Of course they were, and still are.
Sorry, although DXY is just right, WTI too high for QE, and everybody knows it. Need some de-escalation in Middle East. I think that is why the story of the Swedish guy leads in the direction it does.
UPDATE: Karstadt to Cut 2,000 Jobs(WSJ)By Nicky Redl
FRANKFURT--German department store chain Karstadt plans to cut 2,000 jobs by the end of 2014 as part of its restructuring program, in a further sign of the deepening problems faced by Europe's retailers.
"The measures are painful for our staff, but necessary," ...
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120717-708079.html
The infection creeps into the Deutschland.
Didn't Karstadt just get bailed out from the Squid?
Theatre props since 2008
Schlecker tits up and Neckerman (Versand) went BK this week.
So much for the strong German job market. I hope the Greek and Spanish workers hoping for employment in Germany bought roundtrip tickets.
It's only the beginning.
"Shovel ready jobs" (Schaufel bereit Arbeitsplätze [sp?]) is what the Germans need.....it worked well here.
Looks like the end of the trend on the New Moon Sunspot high:
http://richcash8tradeblog.blogspot.com/2012/07/rich-cash-overnight-options.html
hope and change
SCOPE AND RANGE!
The Looking Glass: Labor’s Perspective
"We don't need no stinking jobs..."
New family labor pursued dc automation to off stupid, efficient, busy work onto machines, in a quantum negative feedback development, to the end of improving gravitational performance. Legacy capital pursued dc automation to marginalize labor, incrementally stepping up stupid, efficient, busy work, based upon the theory that intellect trumps physics, is its own end, and upon the assumption that the universe is a closed system, which is a self-fulfilling prophesy, until it’s not. The universe creates and destroys relative dimensions accordingly.
Labor separated from spirit over time, failing to seek the unknown, to be of the unknown, is not physics. And intellect, in and of itself, is simply a reductive transmission system in a positive feedback loop, a pattern matcher, albeit in multiple dimensions. Aging labor, sans spirit, the semi-neutral insulator conductor, simply responds autonomously to environmental stimulus. Together, sans spirit, the only possible outcome is replication acceleration, efficiency, a separation of charge in a short, implicitly controllable by spirit. The relativity circuit is a return, extending time accordingly.
Begin with a simple circuit – supply, return and meter. Add delays faster than the circuit can detect addition, by increasing top-down complexity. The old devices will “detect” birth, life, and death, as noise in the cabinet. All devices are motors, transducers, blah, blah, blah. The atom is not static, though it may appear to be relatively static. The spirit provides negative feedback balance. Without it, life is tuned out.
Legacy, labor that has fallen into derivative capital, assumes that complex electronic control of antiquated and mechanically simple humans is more versatile and cheaper than nature, that others are at least as stupid as they are, because so many are so willing to abandon their own designs for that of others, which the empire reinforces, on reality TV. As some tune the empire out, the less energetic are captured, transforming the middle class into a self-defeating insulator. Add impurity as required for your semi-conductor.
Take a good look at that reflection in the glass again. Do you see yourself, empire, or God? Take another look at History, through the eyes of others. Begin with the definition of beauty, through paint. The world is what you make of it, aggregated.
You were granted free will at birth. By now, you should see that human law follows behavior, not the other way around. Don’t let your eyes fool you. They are connected to a machine, specifically constructed to do so. Don’t be so quick to sell your free will for a few pieces of shiny metal, script, or anything else, but if you choose to do so, to believe in good and evil, the big, bad empire, don’t expect all others to follow your example.
Look around. How many effective parents do you see? Who is driving the rabbits out of school, which the dogs chase to improve overall performance? Who is creating crime out of thin air, to remove the example of effective behavior from the streets? Who is selling your children drugs, at a cost increasingly in excess of salaries, all at the company store?
If you were the boss, how difficult would it be to discern effective work ethic in this environment? Do you really think you can fool God, within an empire that is constructed to believe it is God?
I am a parent, with more children than the empire, which bets all against me, can count. Gravity is gravity is gravity, a shared perspective of false assumptions. Drive right through it. Define yourself with reciprocal separation from others, equal but different. Parenting is a function of will unencumbered by false assumptions, and children learn by example.
I throw my kids right into the empire churn pool. Those with the will to swim out I train. They hate me at first, but grow increasingly loyal with discernment. If it’s war the empire chooses, war it will be. Iran and Saudi Arabia are irrelevant. I can’t speak for others, but don’t expect my kids not to charge straight through the line and decapitate the empire’s leaders. There is no shortage of gravity in the universe.
From the empire’s perspective, kids are weapons, which is why it must adopt more and more laws, with more and more exceptions for itself, just to exist, if you call a machine existence. My dad taught me to expect Statey, and I taught mine, with exponential growth. You do as you like, but stupidity is not bliss.
I could care less if Kissinger and Co. thinks it’s a bully, or has an empire of followers, in Israel or the US. F-ing cavedwelling lobbyists couldn’t work one day on a real job if their life depended upon it, and sooner or later it will. Wh-s on earth or in heaven are not my prerogative. Prepare for labor reflation like your life depends upon it, because it does, regardless of who occupies the White Shanty. Don’t stand in the way of a bulldozer and expect a happy outcome.
Time is misdirection for the weak of heart. Buy all you want. Attack at will, but don’t assume anonymity and expect anything other than your own self-destruction. The Law is simple. You are better off with the devil you know than the devil you don’t, regardless of time, KISS. My kids don’t hide in caves, begging for retread derivative empire weapons. They are, experienced weapons.
Don’t f- with other people’s family, or expect the favor in return. Do unto others…police your own.
I'll bet you have a manifesto posted somewhere....
If it wasn't this way before, but by now it's a four or five way fight. And there are always people better suited to it.
check this one out kev:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-17/how-summer-is-making-u-s-kids-dumber-and-fatter.html
Comrade Orszag's post-Bilderberg extra credit assignment
looks like the peanut gallery gave it a resounding F
The Fed is terrified of launching QE, if it fails, game over, the Fed will have lost all their credibility (the fact they have any credibility is amazing in itself, but that is another story)
They will not launch QE til their is panic, aka SP approaching 1000, then it might have some effect.
As well, the fact that EVERYONE is waiting QE to board the train and get an easy 20% return should scare the shit out of the QE brigrade.
Its academic now, where the S & P is , the QE timing, The real economy is fucked.
The fed loses credibility by saying they will launch QE if needed and then standing idly by when it's needed.
My friend QE is never needed. We will never recover with all the QE's. The system needs a purge, not more debt.
Agreed. The system needs to reset ,but I think he means the fed is talking like they stand ready, but they are doing nothing. Then they will run in when the system is crashing and have to pint twice as much to catch it. They show they are behind the curve.
I dont believe in the "powers" of the FED.
So if we crashing to 1000-1100 and then FED launches QE, we bounce to 1300, was it a techinal bounce or QE?
Market will say look QE saved us, i say it was just a techniacal bounce. The Fed is powerless
Now I totally disagree with that. Markets are all about flow of money. When new money comes in markets rise. When money is withdrawn markets fall There is no new money coming in,investrs are pullng it out. The only new money flowing in is when the fed prints.
Dr. Engali
The system WILL reset, but none of us here will want ANY part of it.
Clearly bullish.
Clearly!
SPUTTER , SPUTTER , CACHUG, CACHUG
I guess that's why momo is on fire then with NASDAQ 100 PE stuff lighting it up wherever you look. Every day the same, only more obscene.
All the US Chamber of Commerce has to do is put out a "layoff" order to all the crony corps that support it. If they want Romney elected, they have to make the economy really bad by voting day. Expect to see enough layoffs to exceed the 400K number for a number of weeks. Expect to see Romney's poll numbers improve.
See why Obama (or any politician for that matter) has to play "nice" with the business community? Only if you're a one termer, can you say and act the truth.
Almost everyone in Washington realizes there are economic statistics a lot more important than the unemployment rate--for example the profitability of the Wall Street banks.
August 2008 - October 2008
Bejing Olympics ended, oil spiked to $147, election year, market CRASH
August 2012 - October 2012
London Olympics ended, oil spiked to $110, election year, market CRASH
It is so slow out there, even the crickets stopped chirping. DEAD silence in retail and construction.
Im going to buy some FAZ calls. Just in case....
I'd like to thank Obama for single-handedly creating ZeroHedge.
Zerohedge was actually even better before Obama in some ways. At the peak of the crisis the inofrmation that went out over this website was absolutely outstanding. I may have not had a screen name then as I lurked because of my employer, but a lot of the guys that used to contribute either turned into Tyler's or they disappeared. Not to say the current contributors aren't great it just had a different flavor back then.
Oh's no's. Time for extended-extended unemployment benefits.
QE losing potency, Trennert. http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/qe3-easy-way-not-much-162040953.html?l=1
A better entry point in the next 6 months.
Questioning the efficacy of QE? Going to get scarlet letter for that one heh.
QE did a great job of keeping the banking system limping along. That is all it was supposed to do. I suspect it will remain potent in that respect because there is no limit to how barely alive we can keep the banks with fresh money.
Here is another great one from Yahoo: 80% of consumers believe recession will last three more years.
But, but, but National Bureau of Economic Research said.....
Which recession? The last one we never left or the one we're headed into? [/sarc]
Short answer to Tyler's question: Naw.
Turning Japanese
I really think so !!
deflation is a bitch.
no it just reiterated how meaningless data is.
Not as a replacement - this the employment index is directly connected.
However, market indexes tend to lead the economy by about 3 months.
The top for the SP500 (more broad based than the Dow) was in April. Three months later and the economy starts to reflect this.
http://bullandbearmash.com/index/sp-500/daily/
just 400 or so odd years before our society hits the utopian socialist state Gene Roddenberry dreamed of.
http://alexandertumilty.net/post/2635297481/building-roddenberry-utopia
So a couple generations of peeps go hungry, die broke and have no way to support themselves?
</sarcasm>
They could afford to dump capitalism in Star Trek. They had machines that materialized any meal you wanted to eat.
Maybe we'll have roles in 'Hunger Games' for a few centuries before they let us play Star Trek.
Who needs 'jobs' when youve got a Big War on the horizon ?
For that matter, who needs an election ?
Will hammering chains in a FEMA camp count as fully employed?
Maybe. The Administration have GUARANTEED no employment recovery by Obamacare and Dodd Frank.
Dodd-Frank: on target to be 30,000 pages of rules and regulations. Yeh, THAT will help recovery!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/07/19/jobless-claims-rise-d...
people, despite the jobs outlook and overall state of the economy, obama is still polling neck-and-neck with romney...
what don't you get? 1/2 the voting population don't give a fuck about the chart reported in this article.....
jb