Did The Philly Fed Just Signal The End Of Obama's 'Jobs' Recovery?

Tyler Durden's picture

Hidden under the covers of this morning's already dismal headline print in the Philly Fed data was a considerably worse than expected employment sub-index. Historically this has correlated highly with the non-farm payroll print and suggests (albeit correlation is not causation but gathering real evidence of a slowdown is) that we are heading for a negative print in the next employment report.



(h/t Brad Wishak at NewEdge)

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Jlmadyson's picture

Very nasty stuff.

It's coming.

redpill's picture

The BLS will NOT print negative prior the election.  That is not how this game works.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Jim Clifton (CEO of Gallup) says that our leaders are digging in the wrong places re creating jobs, see what he writes in his book:


TruthInSunshine's picture

Chucky "I Only Care About Wall Street- Fuck Flyover Country" Schumer gave his little bitch Bernank 2 weeks "to get to work."

Will Bernank roll out Mission Impossible QE3 without equity markets tanking, allowing a Hank Paulson v2.0 "martial law & tanks in streets"/GoldmanMorgue gun-to-the-head-of-401(k)s ramping lower moment?

redpill's picture

Hey at least Gordon Brown isn't around to sell it.

Not Too Important's picture

How does GS bitch Schumer and Obama feel about their master sucking up to the Russians on human-rights violations?


Or how about Mitt Romney? GS is Romney's top contributor, too, at $593,000 and growing:


What does our glorious Presidential candidate have to say about this? Or are they both not remotely concerned about human rights?

This election isn't between worse and worser. It's between two shades of evil. I mean really, as bad as they are, the Russians are starting to look like the good guys. What the hell has happened to this country?

pods's picture

Since the first unconstitutional act was comitted by the FEDs long before I was born, we have been "voting" for a different shade of tyranny.

It has been that way for a long time.  I would either argue the war of Northern aggression, or to the adopting of the Constitution.  When a black man is determined to be something other than a man, you have tyranny.

When you can decide that God gave rights to some but not others, (and this goes on today with us blowing up brown skinned men that wont accept debt for oil), you have tyranny.

Sure the ideas of the Declaration of Independence were sound, but were implemented capriciously.  Which started us down the tyrannical road.


moneyline's picture

"the Russians are starting to look like the good guys." I have been there several times. Believe me, they are NOT the good guys. Russia/Moscow profiles like what the U.S. would look like/will look like when the !@#% really gets bad.



DosZap's picture


Jim Clifton (CEO of Gallup) says that our leaders are digging in the wrong places re creating jobs, see what he writes in his book:

The sooner people learn that there never has been,never will be any attempt to create jobs, but the opposite,we may finally awaken the Sleeping Giant.

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1, DosZap, I concur.  Washington, DC has actively been undermining our economy, making things worse.

I did not need Obama's help in helping to found our Peruvian company in 1991, back when he was in diapers...

And many of the answers are NOT in Washington anyway.  Clifton argues that it is the cities where large numbers of jobs CAN be created.  It's all local, although DC has been actively gumming up the works.

Green Shoots?  Bah...

jtmo3's picture

I agree with a big fat bull shit. The bureau of lying shits will NOT print a negative before the erection. Not gonna happen!

mess nonster's picture

unless... Unless the PTB have decided that Willard is supposed to be next figurehead. Then BLS comes out with bad, bad numbers. Will it happen? watch MSM for small stories about Obama's birth cert and or SS#. If these stories don't appear, then no bad numbers. If you start seeing them, then the bad numbers will come.

sdmjake's picture

There will be a Birth/Death model adjustment of a couple 100,000 and that'll fix the headline number... "These aren't the droids you're looking for"



Frastric's picture

Depends who the BLS is sleeping with, wouldn't put it past the Republicans to pay those BLS guys a few visits... The BLS skews data to their master's wishes...

MFL8240's picture


The BLS needs to change how they arrive at employment numbers by counting all the jobs we created in the Philippines, China, and India.  That is a more accurate picture of NFP created by stupid American consumers buying this junk and, this will help Obama which is their job, not to post accurate numbers.


r101958's picture

Easy, just drop a million or so workers off the back end and voila! Less than 8% UE.

disabledvet's picture

I thought the BLS was "fixed about as good as LIBOR"? If so "why not show a million jobs"?

moneyline's picture

Yes they could and they will. Big biz and big banks want Obummer outta the White House SOOOoooo bad they might just crash the equities pre-election. BTFD.

Quantum Nucleonics's picture

Exactly, any BLS monkey that puts out a negative jobs number before the election will either be sent to run a radar station in Alaska or rended off to Gitmo.

earleflorida's picture

Nor will they print a mediocre to a realistic number - obama wants, and needs a huge QE3 from the FED - this will be the catalyst --- the markets are telegraphing it from the rooftops on Broad & Wall


Raymond K Hessel's picture

Looks bullish for bonds... and equities. 

MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

I say old chap...

Would that be "nasty" in the normal sense?

Or "nasty" as in the "gangsta" usage?

Pray tell...

t_kAyk's picture

O/T, but speaking of very nasty stuff...


WASHINGTON, D.C. — Federal weather forecasters predict the unusually hot dry weather that has gripped much of the nation will linger into fall, especially for the parched heartland.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s outlook for August through October shows that nearly every state likely will have hotter than normal temperatures. Much of the Midwest is likely to be drier than normal, too.

The forecast, issued Thursday, indicates a high probability for little rain for all or parts of 15 states for August. The region encompasses Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and Iowa and the states generally surrounding them. The outlook improves a bit over three months, shrinking to just eight states.

Above normal rainfall is forecast for New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Utah and parts of Nevada and southern California through October.

vast-dom's picture

not yet. we need to see a bit more here. certainly trending ugly. the charts can be faked to buy some more time to buy more time.

TwoJacks's picture

you are correct, sir

MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

Agri-Subsidy and Food Stamps

It's freedom, democracy and the American Way ;o)

fonzannoon's picture

A negative NFP number combined with a flatline gdp will be enough to get Bernanke involved. Oil and AG can be blamed somewhere and people will buy whatever stupid explanation comes their way.

Get to work Mr. Bernanke

ATG's picture

BB knows another QE means food and fuel cost riots.

That's why he passed the buck to Congress...

MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

To you...to me...to me...to you...

All captured live on Chuckle-cam...

FL_Conservative's picture

Honestly, in watching the tape of his testimony, did Bernanke not have the "holy shit....he's gonna hand me the hot fucking potato" look when schmucky told him to "get busy".  That wasn't a happy look for Mr. Keynesian.

zero19451945's picture

The BLS just needs to adjust for the fact that the warm weather created more air conditioning repair jobs and POOF!!!!---> +150,000 jobs print.

Really don't think that's coming?

laomei's picture

And where's the money to pay for the repairs gonna come from?  You're all poor.

Squid Vicious's picture

jobs are for suckers!

t_kAyk's picture

..."The End of Obama's 'Jobs' Recovery"...

Was there a beginning? 

sunny's picture

January 2009.  He got a job.


DosZap's picture

..."The End of Obama's 'Jobs' Recovery "...

Was there a beginning? 


No, they just named it incorrectly,

..."The End of Obama's 'Jobs' Destruction"...

t_kAyk's picture

Unless he leaves office next January, I believe his jobs destruction has just begun. 

Hohum's picture

Jobs destruction started around 2000. Look at total non-farm employment.

Taterboy's picture

The only "jobs" Obama was ever involved with took place at Man's Country in Chicago.

cougar_w's picture

That's what you get for looking behind the curtain.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

But this doesn't mean that the stock market will stop its rally. In fact the pupett masters will be frantically pulling on the strings to lure back in the last of the rally suckers, those poor souls who don't want to "miss the market".

Next sucker stop is S&P 1,400. All aboard!

ATG's picture

With much respect CD,

this is the kind of thinkiing that makes a top... 

Dr. Richard Head's picture

All I know is that the 401K manager came into the office with an actuary touting the great benefits of a profit sharing program.  The vehicle for saving in that profit share?  The same fucking stocks touted for the 401K plan that not 20% of our employees contribute towards.  Snake oil salesmen peddling the same liquid in a different bottle.