Did The Philly Fed Just Signal The End Of Obama's 'Jobs' Recovery?

Tyler Durden's picture


Hidden under the covers of this morning's already dismal headline print in the Philly Fed data was a considerably worse than expected employment sub-index. Historically this has correlated highly with the non-farm payroll print and suggests (albeit correlation is not causation but gathering real evidence of a slowdown is) that we are heading for a negative print in the next employment report.



(h/t Brad Wishak at NewEdge)

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Thu, 07/19/2012 - 13:57 | 2632876 Jlmadyson
Jlmadyson's picture

Very nasty stuff.

It's coming.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:05 | 2632919 redpill
redpill's picture

The BLS will NOT print negative prior the election.  That is not how this game works.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:08 | 2632944 DoChenRollingBearing
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Jim Clifton (CEO of Gallup) says that our leaders are digging in the wrong places re creating jobs, see what he writes in his book:


Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:13 | 2632963 TruthInSunshine
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Chucky "I Only Care About Wall Street- Fuck Flyover Country" Schumer gave his little bitch Bernank 2 weeks "to get to work."

Will Bernank roll out Mission Impossible QE3 without equity markets tanking, allowing a Hank Paulson v2.0 "martial law & tanks in streets"/GoldmanMorgue gun-to-the-head-of-401(k)s ramping lower moment?

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 15:08 | 2633188 redpill
redpill's picture

Hey at least Gordon Brown isn't around to sell it.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:47 | 2633099 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

How does GS bitch Schumer and Obama feel about their master sucking up to the Russians on human-rights violations?


Or how about Mitt Romney? GS is Romney's top contributor, too, at $593,000 and growing:


What does our glorious Presidential candidate have to say about this? Or are they both not remotely concerned about human rights?

This election isn't between worse and worser. It's between two shades of evil. I mean really, as bad as they are, the Russians are starting to look like the good guys. What the hell has happened to this country?

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 15:12 | 2633203 pods
pods's picture

Since the first unconstitutional act was comitted by the FEDs long before I was born, we have been "voting" for a different shade of tyranny.

It has been that way for a long time.  I would either argue the war of Northern aggression, or to the adopting of the Constitution.  When a black man is determined to be something other than a man, you have tyranny.

When you can decide that God gave rights to some but not others, (and this goes on today with us blowing up brown skinned men that wont accept debt for oil), you have tyranny.

Sure the ideas of the Declaration of Independence were sound, but were implemented capriciously.  Which started us down the tyrannical road.


Thu, 07/19/2012 - 16:16 | 2633517 moneyline
moneyline's picture

"the Russians are starting to look like the good guys." I have been there several times. Believe me, they are NOT the good guys. Russia/Moscow profiles like what the U.S. would look like/will look like when the !@#% really gets bad.



Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:28 | 2633026 DosZap
DosZap's picture


Jim Clifton (CEO of Gallup) says that our leaders are digging in the wrong places re creating jobs, see what he writes in his book:

The sooner people learn that there never has been,never will be any attempt to create jobs, but the opposite,we may finally awaken the Sleeping Giant.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:58 | 2633145 DoChenRollingBearing
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+ 1, DosZap, I concur.  Washington, DC has actively been undermining our economy, making things worse.

I did not need Obama's help in helping to found our Peruvian company in 1991, back when he was in diapers...

And many of the answers are NOT in Washington anyway.  Clifton argues that it is the cities where large numbers of jobs CAN be created.  It's all local, although DC has been actively gumming up the works.

Green Shoots?  Bah...

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:08 | 2632945 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

I agree with a big fat bull shit. The bureau of lying shits will NOT print a negative before the erection. Not gonna happen!

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:20 | 2632995 mess nonster
mess nonster's picture

unless... Unless the PTB have decided that Willard is supposed to be next figurehead. Then BLS comes out with bad, bad numbers. Will it happen? watch MSM for small stories about Obama's birth cert and or SS#. If these stories don't appear, then no bad numbers. If you start seeing them, then the bad numbers will come.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 15:21 | 2633232 sdmjake
sdmjake's picture

There will be a Birth/Death model adjustment of a couple 100,000 and that'll fix the headline number... "These aren't the droids you're looking for"



Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:17 | 2632985 Frastric
Frastric's picture

Depends who the BLS is sleeping with, wouldn't put it past the Republicans to pay those BLS guys a few visits... The BLS skews data to their master's wishes...

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 15:06 | 2633177 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture


The BLS needs to change how they arrive at employment numbers by counting all the jobs we created in the Philippines, China, and India.  That is a more accurate picture of NFP created by stupid American consumers buying this junk and, this will help Obama which is their job, not to post accurate numbers.


Thu, 07/19/2012 - 15:25 | 2633243 r101958
r101958's picture

Easy, just drop a million or so workers off the back end and voila! Less than 8% UE.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 16:09 | 2633486 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I thought the BLS was "fixed about as good as LIBOR"? If so "why not show a million jobs"?

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 16:11 | 2633490 moneyline
moneyline's picture

Yes they could and they will. Big biz and big banks want Obummer outta the White House SOOOoooo bad they might just crash the equities pre-election. BTFD.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 16:49 | 2633641 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

Exactly, any BLS monkey that puts out a negative jobs number before the election will either be sent to run a radar station in Alaska or rended off to Gitmo.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 21:28 | 2634526 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

Nor will they print a mediocre to a realistic number - obama wants, and needs a huge QE3 from the FED - this will be the catalyst --- the markets are telegraphing it from the rooftops on Broad & Wall


Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:06 | 2632928 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

The recovery never started!



Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:07 | 2632936 Raymond K Hessel
Raymond K Hessel's picture

Looks bullish for bonds... and equities. 

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:12 | 2632964 MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

I say old chap...

Would that be "nasty" in the normal sense?

Or "nasty" as in the "gangsta" usage?

Pray tell...

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:14 | 2632970 t_kAyk
t_kAyk's picture

O/T, but speaking of very nasty stuff...


WASHINGTON, D.C. — Federal weather forecasters predict the unusually hot dry weather that has gripped much of the nation will linger into fall, especially for the parched heartland.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s outlook for August through October shows that nearly every state likely will have hotter than normal temperatures. Much of the Midwest is likely to be drier than normal, too.

The forecast, issued Thursday, indicates a high probability for little rain for all or parts of 15 states for August. The region encompasses Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and Iowa and the states generally surrounding them. The outlook improves a bit over three months, shrinking to just eight states.

Above normal rainfall is forecast for New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado, Utah and parts of Nevada and southern California through October.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:57 | 2633143 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

not yet. we need to see a bit more here. certainly trending ugly. the charts can be faked to buy some more time to buy more time.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:00 | 2632890 TwoJacks
TwoJacks's picture

you are correct, sir

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:15 | 2632973 MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

Agri-Subsidy and Food Stamps

It's freedom, democracy and the American Way ;o)

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:00 | 2632891 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

A negative NFP number combined with a flatline gdp will be enough to get Bernanke involved. Oil and AG can be blamed somewhere and people will buy whatever stupid explanation comes their way.

Get to work Mr. Bernanke

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:12 | 2632959 ATG
ATG's picture

BB knows another QE means food and fuel cost riots.

That's why he passed the buck to Congress...

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:16 | 2632981 MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

To you...to me...to me...to you...

All captured live on Chuckle-cam...

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:53 | 2633126 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Honestly, in watching the tape of his testimony, did Bernanke not have the "holy shit....he's gonna hand me the hot fucking potato" look when schmucky told him to "get busy".  That wasn't a happy look for Mr. Keynesian.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:00 | 2632892 zebra
Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:06 | 2632934 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

As sung by the Mormon Tabernacle Choir? You can NOT make this shit up...

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:01 | 2632895 zero19451945
zero19451945's picture

The BLS just needs to adjust for the fact that the warm weather created more air conditioning repair jobs and POOF!!!!---> +150,000 jobs print.

Really don't think that's coming?

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:07 | 2632940 laomei
laomei's picture

And where's the money to pay for the repairs gonna come from?  You're all poor.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:01 | 2632896 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

jobs are for suckers!

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:01 | 2632903 t_kAyk
t_kAyk's picture

..."The End of Obama's 'Jobs' Recovery"...

Was there a beginning? 

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:06 | 2632929 sunny
sunny's picture

January 2009.  He got a job.


Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:12 | 2632954 DosZap
DosZap's picture

..."The End of Obama's 'Jobs' Recovery "...

Was there a beginning? 


No, they just named it incorrectly,

..."The End of Obama's 'Jobs' Destruction"...

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:15 | 2632977 t_kAyk
t_kAyk's picture

Unless he leaves office next January, I believe his jobs destruction has just begun. 

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:32 | 2633040 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Jobs destruction started around 2000. Look at total non-farm employment.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:50 | 2633107 Taterboy
Taterboy's picture

The only "jobs" Obama was ever involved with took place at Man's Country in Chicago.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:02 | 2632905 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

That's what you get for looking behind the curtain.

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:04 | 2632909 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

But this doesn't mean that the stock market will stop its rally. In fact the pupett masters will be frantically pulling on the strings to lure back in the last of the rally suckers, those poor souls who don't want to "miss the market".

Next sucker stop is S&P 1,400. All aboard!

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:10 | 2632952 ATG
ATG's picture

With much respect CD,

this is the kind of thinkiing that makes a top... 

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 14:14 | 2632969 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

All I know is that the 401K manager came into the office with an actuary touting the great benefits of a profit sharing program.  The vehicle for saving in that profit share?  The same fucking stocks touted for the 401K plan that not 20% of our employees contribute towards.  Snake oil salesmen peddling the same liquid in a different bottle. 

Thu, 07/19/2012 - 15:55 | 2633386 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Make Mine Freedom! (1948)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ECwYexm-UM (9:30)

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!