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Did Schaeuble Break The Precious Metals And Force Everyone To Raise Cash?
We noted earlier that German finance minister Schaeuble said bank recaps were not the ECB's problem and the 2nd Greek bailout needed revisions - little did we know this would be the signal for investors to recognize that raising cash might be the safest thing to do. Since that statement TSYs and Gold/Silver flipped their recently well hedged relationship to one of total liquidation of both - correlation is not causation obviously but we though the timing was of note.
UPDATE: CME just announced that they are hiking Gol, Silver, and 30Y TSY margins! Seems if it wasn't Schaeuble then it was some leaky CME clerk.
Chart: Bloomberg
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feels more like switch from reflation to deflation in peoples understanding than any one comment (or as you point out might be a cadaver in hedge fund land). 30 minutes from now margin clerks are in charge so we'll see.
if we go to serious deflation trade gold will catch bid - not sure about silver there tho - we are in uncharted waters..(in global macro picture)
Oh my God...
I can't handle all this "back to deflation" talk out there.
You really think Ben Bernanke (of all people) is going to take the podium and declare that his own 2002 thesis was erroneous?
"Sorry folks, Money and helicopters won't help... we're just going to deflate and that's that."
Will he seriously jeopardize his legacy as an Economist in order to legitimize his tenure as a Central Banker?
I think not.
Besides, consider the fact that all debts must be paid, and that right now the cumulative supply of all US dollars that exist is about 8 Trillion, yet this amount is leveraged to about 800 Trillion in debt (aka government unfunded liabilities and bank leveraged deriviatives.
That’s a 100:1 debt to POSSIBLE equity ratio- the real debt to equity ratio is worse, because approx 50% of the 8 Trillion in existent dollars is hoarded, or otherwise unaccounted for.
So, uhhhhhh…. how exactly does all that debt get paid, if it is denominated in a currency that does not exist in sufficient quantities to extinguish it?
Does this help you understand the TRUE nature of the game being played?
Economics will always yield to mass psychology.
your comments are random Robert. we've been in deflation trade all along, people THOUGHT that QE, etc was reflationary - there are far more claims on assets (money, bank accounts, retirement assets, debt, stocks) than there is productive capacity. There is no way that even governments can overcome that overhang -so assets will deflate - and hard - and prices will follow. Then there is no way out other than jubilee and new rules to haircut creditors. THEN and only then will they print.
Unfuckingbelievable. I leave for a couple of months and the collective IQ falls by half.
You would think that more than a couple of people would have a brain out here. What is selling off right now my fellow idiots is 99.9% paper. That's right... a falling cascade of paper!
Deflation my ass. Read and learn.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/295567-how-gold-performs-during-a-financial-crash
(H/T markmotive)
No competing safe havens are allowed. Note the SNB peg action, note the smash of PMs, note the compliance of the yen and Euro.
Why would any competing instrument to preserve purchasing power be targeted?
Because a great devaluation is planned. A comprehensive redistribution of wealth will come to pass.
It requires EVERYONE on the gameboard in play, so that all may bear the reduction to their stored goods and future expectations.
Fishermen with holes in their nets are ridiculed at the wharf.
Sewing tight the seine. Welding shut the bulkhead passages. Locking down steerage.
A system wide shanking and demoralizing of earth's population.
Yes you are right. This is one of the last attempts by the cartel to remind people that the dollar is king. Paper is moving.
The Fed has one bullet left after all the pain we are about to go through: dollar devaluation to reflate assets.
Mom, I've always wondered, how does the dollar devaluate when everyone else is devaluating (dollar still sucks less than the other children).
Is it devalued with respect to "real" "assets".
And, well, with the Fed boyz talking about "Bazookas", I'd doubt that there aren't a whole bunch of "throw-down" pieces hangin' around.
My bet, the Kabuki goes on for a while, decoupled from actuality and reality, but black and white paint will continue to be consumed.
- Ned
a) i didnt say I was bearish on gold, only that we are left with no other options than a reduction of claims - ie what people think they own on paper is largely going away - either via rule changes from govt or from market movements
b)the historical relationship between deflation and gold was ALWAYS during periods of an 'empty planet' where resources could still be accessed at lower prices in the future -the marginal price of energy is now (permanently) increasing. One reason why gold has always done well in deflation was that monetary authorities would come to the rescue and expand money supply. They can only do that now after things have deflated - ie a trillion here and there, despite being politically difficult doesnt help vis a vis the house of cards we are in. Ie we are in a no analog period where historical correlations may not be valid
c) you are wrong about the only thing selling off right now being 'paper'. Go try and sell your physical for real things: food, bullets, tractors, etc you will see that the price of food, bullets, tractors went way up in gold and silver terms these past few days. (tho i understood what you meant)
d)I think gold and silver will disappoint until the 11th hour when they go to the moon. Then there will be so few people that own then it will be difficult to spend.
e)self-deception is a key trait in our species. very adaptive to think ones IQ is higher than ones conspecifics, and ignoring evidence to the contrary helps one suppress cortisol (a stress hormone) and boosts helper T-cells (good for immune system, etc.)
As for b)... you are damn right that money supply will be expanded. The politcal masters of our now contracting consumer economies have no other viable choice... and it helps put a faster 'floor' in under most non-paper assets, devalues debt, increases tax revenues (inflated dollars), and gets banks back in the game of creating yet more debt. (You know... the 'engine' that has been driving our economy over the last thirty years!)
As for c)... I would have to be a great deal stupider than I appear to even contemplate it.
As for d)... Moon is correct. The bottom in gold/silver will occur before equities as those with better financial literacy finally get the picture as to what lies down the road. Most people cannot aford to purchase a sizable PM hedge... but those with wealth who can will and they will buy it all easily since annual production of silver is around 700,000,000 ounces, gold 70,000,000 and platinum and palladium 7,000,000.
Best buy is platinum at the bottom. Stratigic metal and 76% of global production is produced in South Africa where political risk is growing. "Kill the Boer" is considered to be an unofficial national anthem of sorts...
good luck trying to convince your neighbor that your bar is platinum not silver and thus worth 50X more...
Density of platinum is 21 grams/cc. Twice that of my silver and even heavier than gold (and tungsten :) And I will never sell my .9995's to my neighbour... much less show it! (He's a bit of a known klepto you know... a banker actually!)
You could sell him the lead. Or even just make him a present ...
Nate, you have a point forget what I just said
Ha! Falak my friend... how goes it? (Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery!)
(It's the ZerOhead guy with the "0" instead of the "O" for the uninitiated! Good luck with the book... :)
There's always inflation and deflation. Food clothing and shelter deflate against gold during a ponzi bust. They inflate against the paper. Someone either dumped gold and silver though I could see a silver dump but NOT a gold dump. Or pretended to do it.
The IPO market was huge in 2007 right before the pop and it got huge 4th quarter 2010. The corporate stocks are so watered down you'd have to drink 20 million shares just to get a buzz.
People think 1/4 percent interest is a gift to the banks it's nothing next to interest and cash accumulating ponzi ipo. Earnings suck. And the ponzi has too many outstanding shares.
This is a total freaking head fake. It's worse than an head fake they've tried to date and it's trying to say people are selling gold to make margin calls on the equity market. The problem is they are selling paper gold. Because I don't think france got the gaddafi gold. I think it's imploding. By the time smoke clears pm's will be rediculously priced.
People are not selling gold to raise cash. They are selling stocks. You have to sell the stock and go through the bankruptcy to get the money. But the problem is taxpayers and hedge funds and retirement funds own all the stocks. So if you think the 401k fucking in 2008 was bad just hang around. You're about to get reamed.
The flurry of CEO firings is just noise. The suckers and greater fools are broke. This one hurts the mega rich as thier 20 billion dollar company that can't earn a billion a year out in the free market implodes back down to 5 billion dollar companies. Buying back cheap stocks from now broke ass 401k bag holders can't take 5psi of air out of this 20 gigapounds per square inch bubble.
Headfake it is Hephy... and it's not the physical PM's that are being dumped... just levered "paper" falling under the pressure of a rising dollar causing knock-on effects in the 'fictional' PM's market.
A great (and possibly the last) buying opportunity in the making... the difference is that physical will be difficult to find when the dip recovers. As for paper PM's... good luck collecting on your bets when the time comes!
Nice to meet you Zerohead. This is going to be a great opportunity to buy physical. I have bought platinium. Any advantage to it? I have watched gold close on it and wondered why not buy some plat as plat may once again be alot higher then gold.
Any thoughts you would like to share?
Advantages to platinum? Christ... I nearly got a hernia picking up my last consignment of silver. It hasn't increased as much as silver and gold have over the last few years. It's used for catalytic converters, chemical processing of oil and fertilizers and of course for jet turbine blades. War or prosperity... all bases covered.
Plus there is no large inventory of it out ther like gold so is an unlikely candidate for expropriation by the Fed and it has the opportunity to double or triple overnight if civil unrest develops in South Africa like it did in Zimbabwe.
Other than that? Please buy right after I do. :)
One zero hedger did pretty good on platinum a few months back. And I personally freaked the hell out when gold got more expensive than platinum. I mean that was creepy.
'physical will be hard to find when the dip recovers'
I was thinking along similar lines. I was thinking if I was a manufacturer of PV panels (which need silver) and I wanted to buy a few tonnes of silver at knock down prices, what would be my chances of getting hold of the stuff, after the weekend, at anything close to $30?
Probably about the same as my chances of filling up with cheap gasoline because oil prices have tumbled...!
Yeah, I would think they would jump right on that with some futures contracts to lockin known cost of production for the next 3 to 6 months. Just like the airliners buying oil futures to hedge against price increases in Jet fuel. and to give stability to their expected cost structure.
Yes. The Alpha article is pretty good. At the end of the day, everyone must convert to fiat, THE convenient medium of exchange, so thay can conduct business. Sure, you can barter PM coins or ingots for a car or boat or whatever. But that's not how a government works. There is an apparent need for cash credits, whatever currency that is, so the very large holders of PM's need to liquidate. Example: one of the failing banks needs to sell off its PM's to raise Euros to stay afloat. Why is that surprising?
Perhaps the lesson we can learn form this is that the "crisis" is at or near an inflection point. That might mean some additional propaganda coming out to show that specific banks are not so bad off or that one of the PIIGS can pay its bills. Whatever it is, the PTB are desperate to kick the can. Just MHO. Please pass the popcorn.
All things are subject to interpretation whichever interpretation prevails at a given time is a function of power and not truth.
Friedrich Nietzsche
"there are far more claims on assets (money, bank accounts, retirement assets, debt, stocks) than there is productive capacity."
Ummm.... everything you define here as an "asset" maintains no fundamental value, except for (some) common stock.
consider that if I have 10k in a deposit account, the odds are slim that I would be able to find anyone willing to pay me 10,001 dollars for the balance in that account. Is this really represent deflation?
Ummm, No. It is more like common sense.
Now, if I have a well maintained, all original 66 Mustang (factory sticker price: $3800), and I ask $10,000 for it, I'd have a line of boomer dorks in hawaiian shirts fist-fighting each other trying to be first to stuff their 10 grand into my pocket.
Why?
Because they VALUE that Mustang more than they value 10,000 Bernanke-coupons.
Bring your argument back to me when that Mustang can be had for $3800, and maybe I'll pay more attention.
"...all debts must be paid..." Really? Including dishonest debt?
All debts don't have to be paid, in fact it's impossible for all debt to be paid. Countries & institutions need to default it's the only way to clear out the bad debt and start to have any sort of real recovery.
a default still clears debt... in such an example it is the creditor who pays.
It's not impossible- you are challenging the language, not the concept.
and when the debtor defaults, the creditor gets a nice whack with the ruler as a lesson. When the FED steps in and says , "hey, don't hit my kid with that ruler". then the kids get spoiled and don't take responsibility. Spare the rod, spoil the child and all that...
Random, get a clue. You always have inflation and deflation at the same time. For billionaires there is a inflation of incomes and rich guys toys. For the middle class there is the inflation of prices and deflation of earnings. Inflation or deflation, it all depends on where you sit.
You are confusing inflation and deflation (ambiguous terms) with price stickiness and stability
falling prices is not deflation, nor are rising prices inflation.
moving prices are simply that. they have nothing to do with "flations"
There are too many minute fractals that influence prices (sentiment and the personal value proposition being the most active)
in other words, trying to predict pricing trends based on global supplies of monetary aggregates is about as retarded as trying to predict the street address of the alien that abducted and sodomized you with a metal probe last night.
if we go to serious deflation trade gold will catch bid
Yes. This may be the final deflationary sag I've been expecting. It sure looks like it from here. Once people realize a few things, the flight to the dollar will stop.
Exactly right. The long term outlook even in a deflationary economy is debt default through currency devaluation.
What I see here are two competing forces. The first is the government's ability to wreck the economy which is deflationary. Part of this is also the slow ongoing deflation of the real estate bubble. The second factor is the currency devaluaton wars and the impending default of all Western nations through worthless currencies. This is inflationary.
Which one wins in the short run is up for grabs with deflation winning right now. But like SWRichmond above I believe the long play is inflation/worthless currencies. That is where metals come in.
I will be interested in the dynamics behind the metals moves today and who is selling...and why.
To me this smells like 2008. Back in those days, all the big players were looking for cash, talking heads called it a credit crunch. Semi-smarts might see that happening again, and are starting to turn all liabilities into cash. In 2008 Gold and Silver also took a nose dive, so I am not surprised this is happening now again.
Makes sense given that it PM have appreciated nicely and rapidly. It would be hard to liquidate other holdings, especially for banks.
8. Mass layoffs can be expected in 2011 when .gov promises to subsidize any new hiring in 2012.
Did you see the idiotic hiring subsidy in Dumbama's plan? Unemployed over 6 months gets the subsidy...not to mention government workers.
Gold won't catch bid. over one month ago I was telling everybody here that professionals where selling.
Even tho I got more negative votes than anybody I believe, it seems I was right.
So forget your gold. we havn't seen the lows yet. don't become one of the bag holders.
I sure hope you're not the worthless idiot troll you appear to be.
I'd love to get my hands on some low-price physical gold.
Me? Baby back ribs.
there is less than 1oz of Au above ground per person on the planet.
there is less than ½oz. of Ag above ground per person on the planet.
the median price of a home in the US is $250,000.00, or 151oz/Au or ~8200oz/Ag.
tell us again what value is and what the values of these metals are?!
if you could choose only one, would you rather have a paid for house to live in for 30-40 years, or 151oz/Au?
a 'paid for' house is never 'paid for'.
there are property taxes, utilities, upkeep, all of which go up in price every single year.
The 2010 US Census says US median home price is not now, nor has it ever been, a member of the $250K club!
Year Median Average
2010 $221,800 $272,900
from the URL:
http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:KoRaB5Ntv00J:www.census.gov/co...
Hungarian boy... What "professionals" are you talking about...
Charlie Gasparino on FBN has recieved a death threat from MS. Said "ZEROHEDGE AN EXCELLENT FINANCIAL BLOG THAT MOVES MARKETS" did a story on it.
GOOD JOB TYLER.
The monsters of the market don't like commodities. They make money on them from casino take but really hate the value and confidence shift.
That's the number one problem with PM's is who has the power to control an arbitrary statement of value?
In my years of trading, I've never seen so much calculated bullshit.
Beware and be careful.
hey TD, you're only supposed to hit the save button once, and don't use the back button your browser :)
Monday is gonna be awesome, bitchez!
Buy the dip, folks.
golden opportunity...
DA DA! :))) No, really?!?!
Indeed, BTFGD, without cost averaging, life would be a whole-lotta hurt right now.
Did this guy just shout silver, while walking up the road, if he did he just got rammed. (but see what happens in the end)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cud_k9f6tqk
Bank dump in desperation to stay capitalized...Joe snuffy killing off their money markets. The key will be timing the buy to just before everyone realizes the banks are screwed.
Yeah. But that also corresponds with my sister's birthday, so I'm not sure which one it is...
ya
they be whacking the walrus today...
who needs to raise capital and buy debt
DAX successfully re-tested lows this morning and bounced 4%. S&P futures re-tested 1102 and bounced. Copper is saying the downside is not complete in stocks though as it has bottomed first in recent downdrafts.
What is or isn't done Sunday night is what matters. The govts have conditioned markets to a point where no one wants to be short over the "intervention" weekend, thus causing a green close today, making politicians a little less antsy about doing something drastic.
Nothing on Sunday, ugly Monday.
Shouldn't Schaeuble's comments have been positve for the PM's?
No, the Euro-banks have to sell whatever they can to raise fiat cash - to "re-capitalize" themselves, and PM don't count. So, they sell their PMs in order to stay alive.
BTFD.
Now that makes sense.
Checked the safe, happy to see the precious is still there and just as shiny as ever. Maybe time to add some.
I agree, let the paper burn and the fuckers eat each other. The only way to not be robbed in a rigged game is simply not to play. There is always another market somewhere, at least in a normal (connected to reality) business cycle and the precious can always be turned into whatever the "fiat du jour" ends up being.
I remember reading on here well over a year ago that we would see daily moves/swings in the price of Gold in the $100/Oz range as the shit got close to the fan. Todays metal action confirms to me that things are much more precarious than the Daily action on the Stock indexes would indicate. The fact that phyaical PMs are unique due to their total lack of counterparty risk is the primary atraction for me. I am far more worried about weather my bank account deposits are about to go `pooof`
Scary day though, especialy silver, glad not to be trading it but still happy to own it.
Who the fuck knows. I heard going up that silver was giong to EXPLODE because of backwardation. Shit the Comex was going to default!
Now, someone is claiming that a rumor or a margin call causes it to crash 100 bucks in a day. Whatever!
I'm now sitting on my PM's out of a moral obligation to shun fiat currency. I can't be bothered trying to wonder why it goes up and down in regards to the paper currencies. They'll have to pry it out of my cold, dead hands!
Investment tip #1, never listen to cartoon bears.
You mean Timmay and Benocide are considered cartoon bears?
Hold her steady man, if the trend is a trend this shouldnt matter(heh)...but it should shake the bones of anyone to notice that this silver market is so speculative. Fucking safe haven? Jesus christ, 17%, that idea is done and dusted.
All your safe havens are belong to us
give Bunga cigar
-
Silver crashed $100 an ounce? That makes it -$60 per ounce.
What are you doing at your desk?
Please Sir, where may I buy a truckload at -$60/z? I'm there YESTERDAY!
I bought some already tomorrow!
Who is paying $60 to give away silver? I want in on that action.
But seriously, what are you bitching about? Gold and silver are still way up on the year, even the paper shit is still way up. Hell, silver and paper silver are still the best performing assets over hte last 12 months.
Also funny that you think that high prices would cause the COMEX to default, rather than the opposite. Here's a hint--if they don't have the silver, they have to buy it off the open market (or lease it from somewhere) to meet delivery requirements. High prices mean there is more floating around out there, so it is easy ot meet delivery. Low prices mean there is less or none. Where is the silver for the industrial users going to come from?
The idiots and trolls can see that this is the best possible outcome for holders of physical silver, as the coming default will catapult the price of physical to unheard of highs.
But hey, who cares about any of that? Sell your silver. It just makes more room at the top for the people who know what is going on.
I will help you out, you can get it for around half that here, all day long.
http://www.apmex.com/Category/2/Canadian_Silver_Maple_Leafs2011__Prior.aspx
....but there's no physical ANYWHERE
yeah yeah yeah, I hear this shit all the time. Hopefully the Comex will default and JP Morgan will go bankrupt. I'm not holding my breath.
When it comes down to it...you, me, and all the other analysts have no idea what will happen.
The only true reason for holding PM's is the moral component. It's the big middle finger to governments all over the world and the high cabal that prints money and steals the labor and assets of the masses.
A man that speaks the truth, no more and no less. It can take a long time to give governments the finger, but expecting the comex to default for a quick buck is effing madness, why would they default when they have carte blanche to raise margins when ever they feel like it? Never got my head around that one.
Why? PAGE. Those who want phyzz will ba able to stay away from the paper party games.
Daily Chinese 8AM fix coming. Based on composite price reports from in country banks.
http://goldsilverreview.blogspot.com/2011/09/page-pacific-asia-gold-exch...
<Thanks to above for the James Turk link>
The longer I hold my stack, the more I read opinion, the less I really know. All I can say is FUCK YOU FEDS I am not selling.
Moral reasons? FUUk that! I'm in to save my ass after the splat.
Yesterday the S&P dropped back to where it was last November. Gold dropped back to what it was two months ago. Which would you rather be holding?
Roy it is simple - there is so much debt in the world that Fed can play both ways (not only to print to inflate but also to print less and let the debts force deflation)
I couldn't agree more. But all this backwardation, margin call, lack on LBMA and Comex inventory, aluminum and tungsten laden PM's, etc. just makes my head spin.
K.I.S.S. Debt ain't going away. Default or Inflate...it's one or the other.
Roy, a greenie on ya.
Well, I'm thinking about that, in "Men in Black 1" -- "Your Proposal is Acceptable."
live to fight another day.
- Ned
Nice catch Tyler...
My take is it's part of the overall prep for QE3... the metals must be broken or the banks lose control when the easing is announced... after the Comex expiry next week.
'when the easing is announced'? what are you smoking dude? rates are already zero. nothing fed can do to help economy more than it has. next is trading restrictions/rule changes, etc.
unless you meant negative rates - fed will pay people to take new money. now that could work...(not)
Yeah, I agree. Pay me some paper to take paper so I can get physical. Winning!
That was QE Nate... adding a $T or two to the balance sheet... it's coming, or the markets are toast.
You forgot the other side of QE and that is the wholesale buying-monetization of all government paper. That's the danger past zero interest.
Nate you miss one thing - not all people are in debt. They can keep buying commodities. And those who are in debt will continue to default.
The green in that graphic matches my fucking face.
I find this doubtful. That gold and silver were singled out among all the other commodities that could be liquidated tells me that this was a well orchestrated raid in the spirit of the GATA play book. It is a desperation move because it is now so apparent that operation Twist is leaving the global market and the largest banks Twisting in the Wind. It is also evident that short of massive and immediate QE in the US and Europe the cascading sovereign debt likelihood is increasing as is a global stock market melt down.
The monetary "authorities" needed to paint gold's chart because the historically most bullish quarter, Q4 is beginning and the Pan Asian Gold Exchange, which is likely, in my opinion, to greatly reduce the ability of the Western Central banks and their bullion bank operatives and friends at the COMEX and London Metals Exchanges much less able to pull of the classic GATA play book type of raids that we are seeing today to manipulate perceptions, which is what today DESPERATION MOVE is all about in my opinion.
The sheer level of the attack today and yesterday shows the sheer level of desperation. With longer term treasuries being so strong just now and paper gold prices being so low, it is a good day for China to dump treasuries and place orders for delivery in gold and silver from COMEX and the London Exchanges.
I see QE 3, QE 4, ... QE N and sooner than later. Looks like the chart painters who used their ill gotten gains to pump the stock futures market are losing their grip. Lets see if stocks can now catch up with the gold losses next week.
Duffminster
Duffminster +1776
Well stated Duff. As I have said elsewhere, the TBTF's are the biggest players in the equities market. They have the largest vested interest, currently, in propping it up as they lose big time if it crashes again (remember all the 'free' money from the Fed). But, it seems, this time Ben has forced their hand. With no QE3 (as was 'banked on') either they prop it up or they lose. So, they liquidate huge paper PM holdings. It may also be true that we are witnessing some 'cannabalism' within their ranks as there is no honor amongst thieves. If I am way off on this then please someone set me straight.
Totally agree.
Is MF about to implode ? What happens to CME clearing if they go down anyone know ?
Correlation definitely isn't causation.
But this is also the last weekend before the resorts at Sardinia get cooler, banksters have to get their last holidays in before the crash, autumnal equinox and all.
Also, a defunct NASA satellite is going to crash into the Earth sometime in the next 48 hours.
And yes, of course, the markets are just about circling the drain right now.
Concidence?
You forgot to mention Elenin.
Seriously, though, is it just me, or is there just a lot more *stuff* going on lately on a daily basis?
It's not just you. Look at this year--hurricanes, typhoons, nuclear meltdowns, OBL, the final implosion of the Eurozone, collapse of the US economy, and on and on and on.
Something wicked this way comes.
Do you want to unwind that spam fade yet?
Most here think PM is an investment. But in the real world, it's a parking space. Same for oil.
Taking winnings, paying off positions, then off to the islands until the world catches fire and burns.
It's all about the fire now, men. And the tongues of flame and everywhere burning and burning.
-= fyre
Takign off to the islands is a good idea. Longer term, its not gold and silver that will burn, its the global fiat system paper house of cards in which the only thing backing currency is sovereign debt.
On the long scale, the value of gold relative to paper currency is proportional to the total net sovereign debt and the degree to which it is not by any means repayable at the current levels of fiat currency valuations. For me, its time to take advanatage of the orchestrated and short term take down in the POG and silver and then turn off the computer and read a book on the history of fiat currencies and the end of empire.
exactly. I have gold but you can't miss the forest for the trees. Gold IS money, but in a complete state of chaos money itself isn't worth anything is it?
In a complete state of chaos the only items valuable are food, water, and your life. But until then gold and silver are royalty.
That's actually not true. If you look at all hyperinflationary cases gold and silver become super-money. People need something to trade for those essentials you list. You could have bought the whole financial district in Berlin for a small amount of gold.
Good whiskey and other things become money, too, lol! Stock up on that, as well!
Why good whiskey? IF you had it, who would trade it? Buy shit booze for trade.
Vodka is the universally preferred trading distillate. Those airline-sized bottles are sold in units of ten, discounted.
In a real rhubarb, we'll want copper coil stills for manufacturing the home-brewed moonshine. Then, you'll need bottles, jugs or flasks for retailing and barter.
Why not start learning now by brewing some beer this fall? Find local sources of grain, yeasts, hops, grape juice, etc etc. for making mash which when fermented and then distilled.....
Setting up shop now when the production equpment is easily available is just plain smart.
It is to those who aren't paying attention. And there are lots, and lots, and lots, and lots of them..
Keep some FIAT funny money on hand to trade with those that foolishly covet it..
I agree with your premise. However, I would add that Mr. Market is mistaken thinking that Germany has the necessary trillions to save the Euroland socialist welfare states and it's enablers, ze banks. Only one person has the necessary trillions, and that person is........ wait for it........RMugabi :) And that's a fact Jack !
Take a look at the 3 yr RSI on DGP and AGQ. I think g
old looks mighty tasty, silver has a bit more to go but will look tasty soon.
I am a physician who follows this stuff, but I don't know the nuances of the financial world. Compared to others here, I am a newb. So help me with this. To me, the structural flaws for the fiat currencies are still in place. In my mind, gold and silver (and I have plenty of physical of each) should still out perform virtually everything else long term.
Am I mis-reading this? Is this a massive sell off based on all the factors detailed here at ZH? Is this a big margin call/manipulation to get rid of specualtors?
Thanks in advance.
the structural failing syou allude to are of empire (literally) proportions. Controlling supply demand for "safe havenes" in such time become paramount. Gold isnt so much a trade as a fulcrum and once that has been locked in the basement by the crazy uncle sam...
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23480767-pictured-inside-the-cellar-where-father-locked-daughter-for-24-years-and-repeatedly-raped-her.do
I'm an ignorant git, but I think you sum it up nicely. You might consider that they may be all you have long term as well, and only if they are in your possession. This takes into account that there may be a time when everything is priced in relation to them and other important commodities needed to maintain civilization and make transactions in the barter oriented economy in your local community.
unfortunately what "should" happen and what will happen may deviate along the path...eventually what should and will happen will likely join up again but in a world where there are no good answers to our problems, don't expect a linear progression to a resolution. In fact, likely best to expect the exact opposite.
Gold and silver seem to make more sense than most (just behind getting out of debt, self sufficiency, and setting up some kind of unlevered cash flow like rentals or the like). Then again, fuck if I (or anybody) really know.
Edit - however, maybe the fact that APMEX sold out of 2011 SAE's today sez all you need to know...they are now backorded into October
"Gold and silver seem to make more sense than most (just behind getting out of debt, self sufficiency, and setting up some kind of unlevered cash flow like rentals or the like). "
Who are you? Where are you? You've been reading my play book. LOL
We bought the (repo'd) farm, literally. We're sending an extra 40% on the house payment, each month. Plus 50% of any windfalls like bonuses or 401k withdrawals. It should be paid off in 3 or 4 years.
10% of my gross goes to savings, which goes to physical assets: beans, bullets, bullion, anything we can hold in our hands and which will be too costly or even unavailable when TSHTF (is that today or Monday?)
Just this morning, Dear Wife and I were just discussing the one item on your list which we are missing, an alternate source of cash flow. Buying a truck this weekend; I'll see you at the Farmer's Market.
oops. double post.
Actually, if we switch over to high or hyperinflation your debt gets wiped out. I'd go slow on the long term cheap debt but absolutely pay off all variable rate debt like credit cards.
p.s. This is why all debtor governments love inflation!
that's the gist of it - 3 ways to get out are austerity, massive tax increases, or default (either by printing money or just not paying). PMs are a hedge that we don't have the political will for #1 or #2 (and it may be too late for those anyway). still a good bet methinks
Yes all of the structural flaws are still in place and are in fact growing worse as Greece prepares to default, the Euro begins implosion and the Chinese real estate market and non-performing bank loans sit like ticking nuclear weapons covered by a this carpet.
Gold and silver are going to go right back up but it make take some time since PAGE has yet to open and the paper raids executed by western central banks and their cohorts will lose impact as more and more market share (read Asia) migrates to the new exchange.
The mass sell off is essentially American and European banks forced to unload in order to raise capital to meet requirements. This is also causing panic sales and massive amounts of margin calls on speculative paper PM holders. I would not be surprised to see thousands of investors being completely wiped out based on all of this.
These metals are going to go back up again as they are the only true safe havens that can double as raw money after the INEVITIBLE currency collapses begin.
It's going to take a long, long time for them to come back....in particular, silver. So much technical damage has been done on silver. It sliced through the 200-day MA like it wasn't even there. I'm a believer in the metals, but I sold my paper positions last week. As soon as silver went through the 50-day you knew it was on.
TA is only good for paper $$. I think the above poster was alluding to actual gold and silver. The paper G/S may never recover. But I don't own much paper. Only enough to pay bills.
90 days it will be back up over $40. I'll put a troy oz of AG on that one :) Bet?
Could be $50 or $60 -- it all depends on when the physical market breaks the paper price-fixing regime. Unlike gold there are no significant stockpiles.
PSs are not safe-heaven : )
Have in mind that when people need to exchange goods - they can do it without money or creating their own money (IOU and UOMe) on the fly. Have you benn to countryside at the time of harvest ? Pppl help each other and make promises to help each other. It worked for thousands of years with no PMs involved
We are all afloat in a world being steered by con men and sociopaths. Gold is one of the few remaining markers that reveal how far adrift we are, and the those who fancy themselves masters of the universe want nothing more than to obscure all markers that might reveal their manipulations.
Nothing has changed in the big picture, IMO. I'm not even bothered by this type of action - been through it repeatedly. If we were in times with any semblance to normalcy, switching investment sectors with the trends would make sense. But now, the uber macro trend is societal and economic destruction after massive credit expansion and fiat creation during a time of growing strains on resources. Hard to find a better long-term bet than gold and life necessities.
you are dead right sir...no one on zh over the last 2 days has sold phys or ever been advised to sell phys..folks were warned every time about paper gld or slv...mr duff has it right recent moves shows the old fiat boys are shit fuck scared paper prices are a side show for the rigged casino.follow zh for full xray vision..i am gonna buy a t shirt for xmas
Syrin, you wrote:
"I am a physician who follows this stuff, but I don't know the nuances of the financial world"
You answered your question. Once people outside of the financial world start recognizing that the United States corrupt paper fiat Ponzi scheme is a corrupt scam, they start buying precious metals or other real assets because they start recognizing a trend of continual debasement and looting by the banking cabal. Now that lots of people are catching on, the criminal elite that have been moving paper around for decades to loot the labor and savings from hard working people are getting concerned, so they will use their fiat paper scheme to run the prices down to try and scare people out of metals, and it will largely work because most people do not understand how corrupt our system is-----everything from the Federal Reserve’s printing of paper to executives of public companies “printing” stock options and debasing shareholder value. The bottom line is our entire system is beyond fixing and most in government has no interest in fixing it because they are beneficiaries of the corruption. The United States that most of us loved is gone and has been replaced by a fascist feudalist system run by a corrupt cabal of thieves who work together throughout banking, government, and large corporations to loot the savings and labor of their host --- the United States citizens and any foreign lands dumb enough to trust them.
With regards to your question about investing in metals, there are 3 kinds of people that invest in metals:
1) Speculators that just jump on and off trends. They will all bail now that the corrupt bankers are doing a massive “take-down” to scare them out. Some recognize the fraud but they are only interesting in trying to game the fraud one way or another to make money. In the long run, most of these speculators will lose because the criminals in government and banking have much more resources and like casinos, will allow them to win just enough to keep them coming back so they can loot everything they have.
2) Investors who are concerned about the value of their dollar and want to try and preserve value. These people will also largely get scared out because the new propaganda campaign being launched by the cabal is that we will have deflation. They want to chase the investors out of metals and into fiat so that they can loot them before fiat becomes worthless.
3) Savers who recognize that the United States has the most corrupt financial system in the history of mankind whose sole purpose is to loot the labor and savings of others through continual parasitical activities. These people largely recognize that even though the prices of real assets go up and down based on the measuring stick of the corrupt fiat dollar, they buy real assets for the long term because most understand history and know that it is not a question of “when” the fiat dollar will be worthless and replaced with another corrupt measuring stick designed to start the looting all over again.
For speculators and investors, things will probably get really tough if they don’t sell now. For savers, a huge selloff in precious metals is welcomed because they recognize that our entire system is broken and corrupt beyond fixing. They also recognize that while today the fiat paper Ponzi scheme dollars might buy what they need, tomorrow they won't. Sure, tomorrow they can use their fiat to buy more real assets than they could yesterday, but at some point the bell will ring and they will not be able to use fiat to buy much of anything. Throughout history ALL FIAT CURRENCIES go to $0, and the reason is human corruption and greed and a complete breakdown in the rule of law----something that started in earnest during the 1970s when the United States took the dollar off of real backing (Gold). The big difference between past currencies and the U.S. Dollar is never before has a currency been backed by such sophisticated fraud and thievery, however, it is inevitable that whether it is next week, next year, or next decade, the trend for the dishonest backed by nothing corrupt fiat Ponzi scheme dollar is down which means that real assets are the best investment.
The bottom line is the criminal thugs that comprise our corrupt banking system have to fight real money at every turn, and they are going to take this opportunity to do a serious take down on precious metals in an attempt to teach the people a lesson---the lesson being don’t fight the fed and don’t fight their criminology. I look at this as a good thing, because right now fiat Ponzi scheme dollars are still worth something, so the more they take down real assets, the more you can buy. Sure, you may have to hold for many, many years, but isn’t that why you should buy real assets?
The criminal parasites that make up the financial system (25% of our economy and growing) and who produce nothing but take so much want you to give them your money (your labor) via money markets, treasuries, stocks (a.k.a. all paper assets) so that they can “Feed” off of it. When you purchase real assets, particularly those originating in foreign lands, this hurts the criminals. That is why when the price is right; I will purchase non-U.S. produced metals like Canadian Maples, China Panda, Australian Kookaburras, etc. By not purchasing metals that originate in the corrupt U.S. financial system, you win twice---first by dumping fiat toilet paper, second by sending the dollars out of the corrupt country.
Listen, most of us grew up believing in the U.S. and would have never thought this day would come. However, the parasites and criminals that have seized our financial system are worse than the terrorists that “they” claim hate us. In fact, most of the terrorists from foreign lands hate the U.S. not because of religion, but rather, the financial terrorism that our corrupt banking cabal commits against not just its own citizens, but those in foreign lands. The corrupt banking oligarch that has seized the U.S. political system and media has no soul----they will steal a dollar from a homeless person on the street if given the opportunity. They absolutely do not care about the massive pain and suffering they cause to people, they care not that they have outsourced our jobs, bankrupted the middle class, and otherwise destroyed what once was a great country----it will only get worse as the police state grows from the continual looting of the private sectors wealth. Therefore, by purchasing real assets, preferably which originate in other countries, you can at least have something to show for your labor because by the time this is all over, the corrupt parasites that have driven our country into the ground will make sure they eat every bit of meat on their host (us).
There is always a risk in any investment, but my research tells me that once they do this major takedown of precious metals, your best bet is to invest in them for the long term. At least with metals you have something that has proven to be a store of value for thousands of years in contrast to paper fiat which is backed by nothing more than fraud, corruption, greed, lies, and propaganda. In other words, even they will say that fiat currency is largely based on “trust” and anyone that has studied the markets for a decade or more has to know that the United States and its financial system ranks pretty much dead last in the trust department. At least in Zimbabwe and other banana republics the government pretty much told you they were corrupt. In contrast, the U.S. hides behind its corruption and commits it daily financial crimes against the public in secret in a cowardly attempt to make the fiat Ponzi scheme last as long as possible.
In the end, it is about trust, and again, if you REALLY study government finances, banking activities, and the acts of corrupt heads of public corporations, you will find that there is absolutely NOTHING that warrants ANY TRUST in the corrupt fiat dollar, thus, those who want to try and preserve some of their labor have to find something outside of paper, and precious metals are a logical choice. Just recognize that those in control of the corrupt cabal (a.k.a. banana fascist republic of United States) hates precious metals because they are real money so they will continually launch attacks against any and all who purchase them so purchasing physical metals is the only way one should participate. If you are buying "paper" which is leveraged 100 to 1 (some say much larger) good luck----might as well roll the dice in Vegas and enjoy a few shows because in the end all paper goes to its true value of $0.
My view is as follows: lots of people are in debt right now so it is possible for fiat money printers to play both ways (cause inflation by printing or allow deflation to set in by not printing). Once the debtors go bust and surrender all their property the new cycle with a new fiat paper will begin. If you do not want the new fiat to set in then advocate and practice gold and silver as money (but preferably only after all debts are written off)
Debugas, you are correct in theory, but it does none of us any good to "advocate" for honest "real money" over fiat currency. The fact is those in control rig the vote and the elections, and pretty much control everything and they will never give up their fiat currency unless forced to by a complete collapse of the system and takeover by another country. Of course, the U.S. has spread its fiat virus on to those countries for whom we have wage war and conquered --- largely so that we could spread our corrupt financial systems to others and loot their resources. If it starts over again with a reset, it will be like rebooting a computer with a virus that gets worse the longer your computer is on. They got rid of real money because it is more difficult to carry out fraud, corruption, and looting when real money is involved. With advances in technology, the rate at which those that control our country can loot has been dramatically enhanced----simple ledger entries and a few additional zeros is a whole lot easier than having to wait until more real money is dug out of a hole somewhere. The powers that control our country will never willingly give up their ability to print money and loot the public, and those that think an "election" or "advocacy" make a difference obviously do not understand who controls this country.
The bottom line is for those not interested in "trading" or "gambling" in the casino, you are pretty much assured that regardless of your chosen "investment", you will lose value over time. If you invest in stocks, taxes. inflation and executive fraud (via the printing of self-served stock options a.k.a. corporate printing) will erode any "Real" gains you might achieve over time unless every investment decision you make is a perfect one----and we know that is next to impossible unless you are well connected in Congress or Banking. If you invest in precious metals, you will also lose most of your "gains" to inflation, taxes, and the cabals continual manipulation of prices. Yes, you can trade, but that takes considerable time and dedication that most simply do not have. If you invest in real estate, same thing: taxes, inflation, and the local government thugs with their hands out creating new taxes out of thin air. Want to replace the roof on a property---have to pay a tax and get "permission". The list of new thug taxes increases every day, and like most corrupt practices, once they get started, it is virtually impossible to repeal the no matter how much you "advocate".
In summary, anyone who believes that we live in a republic (or a democracy) need to do their homework. Elections are nothing more than dog and pony shows to make the people think they can make a difference. Most who are elected are approved by the banking cabal---those who slip through the cracks are quickly transformed or their tenure is very short lived. I know for many that it can be therapeutic to believe that organizing and advocating for positive change will make a difference, and while I am confident it will not, if it makes you feel better by all means---it won't change anything. Oh sure, advocating for more laws to loot the public and further control the public will always have successes, but any advocacy that calls for prosecuting the criminals that loot our country on a daily basis will never go anywhere.
Wow, nice!
JP Morgan and Congress, one year before the creation of the Fed:
Q. I want to ask you a few questions bearing on the subject that you have touched upon this morning, as to the control of money. The control of credit involves a control of money, does it not?
A. A control of credit? No.
Q. But the basis of banking is credit, is it not?
A. Not always. That is an evidence of banking, but it is not the money itself. Money is gold, and nothing else.
Q. The basis of banking is credit?
A. Yes.
Monetize the debt, bitchez!
OUT-fucking-STANDING!!
I'll have you all know that Rhodium remains unaffected by these pedestrian concerns. I'm thinking of going all in!
/sarc
something's brewing this wknd methinks
Yeah... I needed silver to go down a bit before Oktober because that's when I buy more.
WAW!!!! WHAT A BREAK!!!
1 more week baby!
You got that right man. Yes, gold is being pushed into backwardization with the CB raid and given the time of year and with the PAGE coming on line, your timing couldn't be better to take on silver. Also, its worth considering that, Operation Twist will not have any significant impact on unemployment nor will it help the banks which are in much worse condition than there self audited balance sheets indicate and Twist will leave the softening economy Twisting in the wind in my opinion. Twist merely sets up a situation for which only QE can bring relief. It is that fact that support gold’s bullish trend. Its QE or sovereign default accross the board from what I can see. Since the ECB won't get what it needs to do it, expect the Fed's increasing involvement if indeed the global financial order is to survive. Today's desperation move by the monetary authorities, singling out silver and gold is to me clear evidence of the level of desperation of the situation.
Duffminster
-
There is a worldwide currency crisis coming.
Watch general equities and other real assets (oil, gold, silver) accelerate to the upside as it becomes visible - and as bonds head south.
See the Argentinian Merval Index acceleration during the 2001 / 2002 peso crisis.
http://www.public.asu.edu/~mmelvin/publishedpaper.pdf
The less silver-gold the big banks have the less manipulation they can do.
So, what's your guess guys... when will we hit the dip before pm's start crawling up again? Hope for some more downfall so i can get more metal for my paper, but i'm gonna get some anyways tomorrow; too bad we have to pay 19% vat on bars in Holland :( bastards. more premium to be payed...
Q4 is starting and the desperation move by Ben and Friends through their shadow operatives is so blatant that anyone with half a brain sees it. Gold and silver paper prices at these levels telegraphs the silver delivery issues and is among the various reasons the stealth thieves made this raid. Strong physical demand, Q4 and the Pan Asian Gold Exchange due on line shortly all signal a massive rebound in Q4. When it starts, probably shortly after options expiration next week.
One needs conviction on the macro view to hold through this kind of raid and keep looking at the long term dollar, gold and silver charts and looking at how obvious it is that short of full on QE for both the US and Europe we are goign to enter a sovereign default lead depression in which tax revenues plummet, debt explodes and all nations, even the US default. That isn't going to happen on Ben's watch. I expect QE from the Fed to whatever level is necessary to save the existing banking and financial order and maintain market stability and social stability. It is sick that we've come to this but it is the fact. Of these facts I have conviction and I'm not taking paper losses now because by the start of Q1, gold will be at $2000 and silver over $75 in my opinion and all the panicking nit wits that bought the CB chart painting operation will be wondering what happened. I've been in silver and gold since way before the Lehman and global financial melt down in 2008 and I didn't sell then and in fact bought near the lows. I'm not selling now. Too much hassle and this is long term wealth preservation and a hedge against increasing risk of growing sovereign defaults and market instability. Sovereign default kills bond values and the dollar and euro.
We either get QE to infinity and beyond (more gradual currency devaluation) or we get systemic cascading sovereign debt default and market meltdowns, leading to currency value obliteration in short order.
That's my view and to it I have great conviction.
<a href="http://www.duffminster.com/times">Duffminster</a>
Your thinking is sound.
+1000
Get some ads on your site.. or a donate link.. I give to people who use words like those..
Yes - VAT on silver is 20% here in the UK. Fortunately no VAT on gold in the UK. Physical in your hands is of course best - but if you cannot stomach paying all that vat then second best (maybe for some of your stash rather than all of it) is Bullionvault. For a very small fee they will allocate bars which you can check online. The big downside is that it is expensive to take physical delivery from them. The big plus is that you don't have to pay the vat unless you take delivery.
I would not trust any company with 100% of my silver, but to save 20% I am OK trusting them with some if it. They are quite clear in their terms that it is your silver and there is no counter party risk. It is a personal choice...
Flying to Finland this fall. How much can I bring into the EU before I start freaking them out?
BINGO, Chaff. That is why 85% of PMS sales in eastern europe is GOLD. This is exactly because of the taxation.
Anybody else want to jam Karl Denningers "I told ya so" sign where the sun doesn't shine?
http://www.market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=194719
I told you so from two years ago?! Two years ago he kick people off his blog who talk about gold. Timing is everything.
Saw that. He's an ass. I ignore him. Kicked me off for "mentioning" metals......
Power to the Sheeple?
This is paper gold. Just one more sign of a failing gig.
"PAPER GOLD"
ha
Gold "Buyers" / Coin "Shops" are now BUYING physical at $1300/oz
Remember, in a falling market your going to get MUCH LESS FOR YOUR GOLD than what "paper" is.
Good Luck
Some coin shops pricing means nothing. The bigger picture is a Fiat system in crisis. A system that has JPM short silver 50% of global production.