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Did Schaeuble Break The Precious Metals And Force Everyone To Raise Cash?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We noted earlier that German finance minister Schaeuble said bank recaps were not the ECB's problem and the 2nd Greek bailout needed revisions - little did we know this would be the signal for investors to recognize that raising cash might be the safest thing to do. Since that statement TSYs and Gold/Silver flipped their recently well hedged relationship to one of total liquidation of both - correlation is not causation obviously but we though the timing was of note.

UPDATE: CME just announced that they are hiking Gol, Silver, and 30Y TSY margins! Seems if it wasn't Schaeuble then it was some leaky CME clerk.

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:00 | 1702744 kk1532003
kk1532003's picture

You need to find a new coin shop dude...

 

I checked 5 minutes ago just for shits and giggles and $1650 is the magic number where I'm a lookin'...

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:02 | 1702753 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

Just checked the APMEX web and they are $1680 bid for GAE's.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:07 | 1702771 kk1532003
kk1532003's picture

Yeah....and I'm sure the guy who entered the $1850 bid 3 days ago is going to buck up for the Krugerrand...

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:29 | 1702866 HeNateMe
HeNateMe's picture

Maybe so but someone bid 43.55 for ASE 1 ounce at 12:08 PDT today.  That's over $13 premium I would say.

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&_trksid=p4340.l2565&item=150663865312

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:04 | 1703026 Segestan
Fri, 09/23/2011 - 14:50 | 1702694 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

i remember $4 silver.

will i ever see it again?

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 14:55 | 1702722 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

When you buy 4 silver dollars and realize that they were only 90%.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:23 | 1702832 Captain Nukem
Captain Nukem's picture

I remember $1 silver. (Well actually, it was a bit more than $1.) If I had only known then what I know now.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 18:01 | 1703645 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

skipper, in the words of my senior senator: "would that it were, would that it were." - Ned

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 14:52 | 1702704 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

I'm just back from seeing my coin guy. He says this time last week he was selling rolls of pre 64 quarters or half's for $300+  today his ask is $250. I love trading in my fiat's for real money.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 14:53 | 1702710 Big Ben
Big Ben's picture

Everyone knows that there are a bunch of losses due to bad European loans somewhere in the financial system. But these losses have been hedged in a complicated and opaque way, so no one knows who is actually going to get stuck with them. This means no one can be sure whether their counterparties are really solvent.

In the paper gold and silver markets your counterparties are everything. And if no one can trust their counterparties, the paper gold and silver markets shut down.

With physical you don't have this problem. Your metals are sitting safely wherever you keep them and will remain safe even if the financial system collapses.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:10 | 1703041 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

But these losses have been hedged in a complicated and opaque way, so no one knows who is actually going to get stuck with them.

???

Here I will help you: Taxpayers

Did you get your hookers and booze situation figured out yet?

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:40 | 1703185 Big Ben
Big Ben's picture

Taxpayers will certainly get hit. But will European taxpayers be willing to bail out US banks? And Schaeuble says bank recaps are not ECB's problem. So will Spain be forced to recap Spanish banks and so forth? Spain's financial situation isn't so solid. It isn't clear to me that taxpayers are going to foot the entire bill. But if you are confident that taxpayers are going to cover everything, then you should buy Greek bonds, paper PM's and so forth hand over fist, since they are selling at big discounts. Mortgage your house in order to buy them! And you might actually make a ton of money. But personally, I kind of like to sleep at night.

The "booze and hookers" example was intended for people who are intelligent enough to recognize humor. I never imagined that someone would take it literally.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 19:12 | 1703901 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

Well U.S. Taxpayers have been happy to help out the EU banks and the IMF, why not reciprocate? Personally at this point I do not view banks as being part of the EU or the US. That is the major problem here. Banks are trying to get everyone to bail them out NWO style, while keeping profits and issuing bonuses from ill gotten money.

I think the sooner the people of the world quit bickering amongst themselves and see with who the problems lie, the better off we will be. Bankers without borders have no loyalty to any country, but they are more then happy to play the peoples patriotism, while the politicos sell their souls and their country one brick at a time to the highest bidder.

Otherwise the alternative is more war while the political and banker class sit on their demented asses and watch the carnage.

Do I dislike the the EU? No, not really. I can see the benefit it was SUPPOSE to bring. However, I find it funny at this point countries in the EU are cherry picking now that the economics are blowing up on them. We have no such luxury here in the U.S. If a state is going down for bad economics, guess what, we are all going to pay.

No way, I don't play the paper game. Long PM's and farm land. I come here for insight not a trading strategy.

I am just kidding with the booze and hookers snark. Figured you were too in your earlier post. Different day different topic. Just wanted to see if you remember my stupid reply!

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 14:57 | 1702727 kk1532003
kk1532003's picture

Damn boys....Had I known selling those 5 gold maples on Wed was going to have this sort of impact on the global gold market I would have held on to them.  Sorry!

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:26 | 1702848 Spigot
Spigot's picture

You shithead! (LOL)

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 14:57 | 1702733 anarkst
anarkst's picture

One might believe that the people who read zh might be smarter than to put their hard earned labor-value into any of these incredibly corrupt markets.  

Give-up on the quest to get something for nothing and live within your means.  All markets are scams, always have been, always will be.  The only variable is degree.   

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:25 | 1703116 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture

You haven't met RobotTrader yet have you? :)

The best thing I find here at ZH is the comments. If one takes the time to wade through the crap, one finds gems from all over the news world here. Allowing for a more complete picture.

THANKS TO EVERYONE here at ZH who takes the time to make their explanations and insights possible to the rest of us. Not only do you educate, but you give some of us without the knowledge of global economics courage to face the truth.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:00 | 1702741 SaveTheGreenback
SaveTheGreenback's picture

Hide yo kids, hide yo wife, hide yo gold, hide yo silver....cuz dey rapin' errbody out there....

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:00 | 1702742 Paul Bogdanich
Paul Bogdanich's picture

If one person's statement can swing a market like that then it was too highly leveraged and packed with momentum players to begin with.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:14 | 1702800 Dog Daze
Dog Daze's picture

This whole shit sell-off started right after the Bernank spoke at Jackson Hole. At the time, the entire market sort of "yawned" and then all hell broke loose....WHAT THE FUCK HAPPENED???

Am I missing something?

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:58 | 1702988 Nate H
Nate H's picture

yes

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:28 | 1703131 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

This move is obviously not natural.  It can be nothing other than central bank intervention. 

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:03 | 1702758 the beagle boys
the beagle boys's picture

There must have been a big dissapointment with no qe3, otherwise it doesn't make sense

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:06 | 1702766 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

For the uninitiated, this is how the Fed and affiliated Western CBs ALWAYS take down the PMs. Through their subsidiaries such as JP Morgan, etal., they crash the paper market in hope of getting all holdersof physical metal to divest their holdings. IF you hold, you will be handsomely rewarded in time as China and India are in the ongoing process of accumulating ALL the physical metal held in the West. The Western CBs are commiting collective suicide in a vain attempt to maintain the appearance of control. They will ultimately fail and drag the Western developed economies down with them.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:34 | 1703160 L G Butz PhD
L G Butz PhD's picture

wise man you are, and old too if your nic is true

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:07 | 1702769 user2011
user2011's picture

It is a god giving opportunity for European and Asians to buy as much precious metal as they can.  It could be the last round.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:30 | 1703141 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

Ahh, Americans are presently buying hand over fist.  Check the APMEX.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:08 | 1702774 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

And how many "miner bug" pundits have been saying recently to buy mining stocks?  Geeesh, and they say CNBC is bad.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:08 | 1702775 caerus
caerus's picture

time to go all in...cuervo gold and patron silver...tgif bitchez

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:16 | 1702793 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Did the EU banks sell gold to raise 420 billion euros for recapitalization...

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:14 | 1702806 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Buying ANYTHING on margin should be ILLEGAL.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:32 | 1702881 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Espcially using margin to buy CDOs on MBS on Spec Houses for a Mortgage income tax deduction built on perfectly good farmland to sit empty and not generate food or property tax but does destroy the watershed, and makes the birth certificate for every child born a promisorry note for $50,000 worth of debt in exchange for the medical service of getting held upside down and spanked 5 seconds into this wonderful thing we call life.

Unless said margin creates 100 "jobs" in the orgy of destruction. I think south park said it best. "Kick the baby!"

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:16 | 1702810 Darth Silver
Darth Silver's picture

cant beat the price here.......

buy the phyzz.  sleep like a baby.

comex and JPM may be able to reload on their inventory here, but i just checked and central banks havent stopped printing money.  

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:18 | 1702819 navy62802
navy62802's picture

This amounts to nothing more than the ZH analysis of a couple of months ago regarding the potential bankruptcy of BAC. Way back when the post was put up, ZH predicted that if BAC ever went under, gold prices would immediately crash because BAC's gold holdings would be released into the market ... thus flooding the market with excess supply. Well, banks which are on the verge of "going under" are seeking to recapitalize themselves in cash right now. So they're selling their gold holdings. Thus the excess supply and subsequent drop in prices. No matter ... I'm still long-term bullish on the barbaric relic.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:20 | 1702825 Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture

Couldn´t it be the greek government selling lots of PMs, because they realized that they will suck big time when the EU troika returns to Athens next week ? Desperately in need of cash, selling Gold and Silver to pay off the military, police forces and fire brigades next month ?

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:25 | 1702843 youngandhealthy
youngandhealthy's picture

Morons...wake up. Forgett "fundamentals" this is Rumors, Liquidity, HFT  (RLH) trap....

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:28 | 1702863 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

If this were a liquidity event, WHY IS AAPL UP?

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:09 | 1702990 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Because AAPL is where the sellers/crooks are putting their booty from selling today till the close. Or maybe Monday. Then everyone will say "let's buy AAPL; look how good it did Friday" and the sellers/crooks will sell out to them making an even bigger profit.

You gotta love the sellers/crooks. They are so cool.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:42 | 1703197 Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture

Because AAPL = BUBL

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:33 | 1702882 lolmaster
lolmaster's picture

No TD. Paulson n co is liquidating by month end. -40% and lack of any Dd wiill do that

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:37 | 1702896 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

Oct 1, 2011.  90% of the phony 'coin shops' are closed up.

 

"Yes, we received your over nighted fedex package. No, we will assay your gold sometime in the next 30 days, we have an enourmous backlog"

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:07 | 1703031 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Oh I'm teriffied now!!!  Should I overnight all my PMs to beat the rush????  Shit!!

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:39 | 1702909 Eagle Keeper
Eagle Keeper's picture

I started buying PMs (mostly silver) when it was ~$13. I was actually building stock metal to make jewelry with when I retire. Seeing it skyrocket then crash lately is amusing but doesn't make me want to get out. This may be a good time to add some more. Even if it went to zero you can still feel good about it if you can hold it in your hand and know it won't combust till over 3571 degrees F. Try that with fiat... 

Sat, 09/24/2011 - 19:18 | 1706174 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

You are a keeper of the flame, the really hot silver, metal-melting flame! Keep it up because you are real world and that is a special status.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:55 | 1702972 lix333
lix333's picture

Anyone remember what all the Asian Tigers did in the 90s to fight debt? The Central Banks Sold their Gold.  History Repeats itself but now it will be the European Banks. Gold will see $800 -$900 and stay there untill benny decides to pring again. 

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:06 | 1703029 Rob Jones
Rob Jones's picture

We can only hope! If the CB's need to raise a bit of spare cash that way, I'll be happy to help them out.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 15:57 | 1702985 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

Just bought through APMEX.  Premiums on ASEs are higher than since April, wait times are long (over two weeks to fill), and their computer is so swamped they can't send out confirmations. 

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:04 | 1703024 shazbotz
shazbotz's picture

and now we see why all that gold was being sold

 

hope you didn't sell yours, this rollercoaster is about to shoot to the moon bitchez!

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:12 | 1703048 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

Great buying op for PMs people.

Did you really think the death of the global fiat money system would be painless, slow, and without incident?  The status quo is going to lose out big time.

Don't expect it to go down without a fight.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:24 | 1703104 Nate H
Nate H's picture

just to be clear, there is lots of bashing of 'fiat' on the internets. Our monetary system is indeed in overshoot and there is an excess of claims vs reality. However, we do have energy, water, technology, industries, land, forests, labor, etc. that back up our currency - it isnt as productive as it once was and its prospects are dim relative to a decade ago, but 'fiat' is an overused pejorative - our currency is not backed by gold or energy or land, but it is backed by real things in a country. (true fiat would be paper printed from nothing with ZERO productive capactiy behind it).  Ie. yes our currency is based on faith, but we have real physical processes to back that faith up

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:49 | 1703240 Debugas
Debugas's picture

fiat means someone (the Fed in case of USD) can manipulate the supply of it causing everyone else to lose.

Thank you but i do not want to play this game again...

Gold would be much better because it could not be manipulated (although gold is used to shrink the money supply of fiat when there is a time to rip off the debtors of their real assets).

 

It works as follows: when alot of people accumulated debts bankers shrink the money supply and squeez everyone out of real assets. Once the takeover is over the bankers start a new fiat paper and start screwing the savers until very few savers are left and most are debtors again. Then they start advocating hard money (gold) to squeez all the debtors again. Tehn they start bitching gold and advocate new fiat once again....

 

This is as old as Rome.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:24 | 1703108 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Sinclair's been saying it for years; when gold really launches you will see $100 days, volatility to set you hair on fire.  After 8 years or so of watching PM markdets, it's not exactly a shock to see the first $100 day be a red one.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:25 | 1703111 Syrin
Syrin's picture

WOW!   I love you people!   Thanks so much for the thoughtful and insightful responses.   I GREATLY appreciate it!

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:32 | 1703150 The Deleuzian
The Deleuzian's picture

I still can't believe how long it takes for people's 'light bulbs' to come on!  'This is your wake up call pal'...Hunting down every single ounce of silver I can...Threatening even!

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:35 | 1703163 Fiat2Zero
Fiat2Zero's picture

Premium price on silver has jumped.  Average premium above spot for basic silver products is about $3.  It's now at $4.25 and the graph is parabolic.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:37 | 1703168 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

Premiums just jumped AGAIN at Apmex.  Now 3.99 on ASEs. 

As we learned in USSR.  Price control = shortage!

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:46 | 1703212 rumblefish
rumblefish's picture

buying some ase's this weekend.

BTFD.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 16:59 | 1703334 htp
htp's picture

The big gold price drop happened during US trading today, not European trading hours. That casts doubts on the rumor that European banks are selling gold to raise capital.

 

If Europeans are smart, during a currency crisis they should buy gold, not sell it.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 17:19 | 1703453 s2man
s2man's picture

This is the ZH crowd I know.  BTFD folks.  This morning, some people were whining about their loses on another thread. I thought, who on ZH is on margin, or is afraid to sit this out?

It never even occured to me to sell my paper gold, which is stuck in a 401k.  Sheesh, I'm looking under the couch cushions for change so I can go buy more silver.

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