• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

Did Someone Just Leak QE3? USDJPY Plunges To Fresh All Time Low 75.95, Stocks Soar

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Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:25 | 1577034 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

It's all transitory, risk on bitchez.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:34 | 1577122 IBelieveInMagic
IBelieveInMagic's picture

Options expiration today?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:35 | 1577129 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

</sarcasm>

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:00 | 1577299 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

"In the meantime, buy that Sony flat screen today."

but then we'd have to watch "stuff" on it....

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:27 | 1577456 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Positive development, I need to watch more TV as thinking for oneself is incredibly debilitating these days.

Off to CNN for a 60" talking head learnin' me 'bout what "both sides" are up to.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 14:54 | 1578406 trav7777
trav7777's picture

I watch all of about 4 channels out the 500 worth of shit that is on the basic cable.  The shit on TV is just revolting these days and the average member of the public has Jersey Shore manners now.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:40 | 1577178 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Again, Tyler, thanks for finally allowing us access to the top-secret "active traders fightroom" of ZH, it has helped our intraday performance immensely and is keeping the personnel department here at Goldman off our back.   Since your ES long call at 9.32am this morning, we have already accumulated 40.2% intraday profit on our 50:1 leveraged ES long.  Thanks also for sending Robo over to us, he seems to be blending in very well over here. 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:15 | 1577332 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

same situation in '08.  hedge fund had to buy up short positions, as everyone unwound them, Also, buying up assets to unwind the yen carry trade.  If you see rallies on heavily shorted positions on no news, it would indicate the quant models are breaking down; eye before the hurricane.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:26 | 1577039 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 

 

The Bernank says unto Primary Dealers:

Do not buy LULU or BAIDU yet, morons. You're cockblocking my Jackson Hole speech.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:49 | 1577247 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

You are right; Bernanke is such an attention whore.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:52 | 1577259 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

What's interesting is that Chris Ciovacco (objective analyst) is pretty much stating that the only ones with a 'QE3 will happen bias' are commodity traders, and that even among those who lean towards QE3 (in roughly like form as in the past) happening, almost no one believes it will have anything remotely close to past effect:

 

Chris Ciovacco:  In 2009 and 2010, the Federal Reserve was able to reverse sharp declines in asset prices by pumping large amounts of printed money into the global financial system via quantitative easing. With the Fed’s 2011 Jackson Hole speech set to take place on August 26, we recently reviewed the ETF winners from QE2 looking to see if the market is anticipating the launch of QE3. Like the bearish similarities to 2008, our findings below are not encouraging for the stock market bulls. A recent review of QE2 winners indicates one of two things:

  1. The market does not believe the Fed will announce QE3 in the coming weeks or
  2. The market believes the deflationary forces in the economy are so great that QE3 would have little impact on asset prices.

...

In the summer of 2010, global financial markets were sitting on a fine bull/bear demarcation line as we outlined in this August 15 video. The Fed’s August 2010 Jackson Hole speech telegraphed the central bank’s intention of launching QE2. The impact on asset prices was dramatic in 2010. Even if QE3 is announced, the impact may be much more muted in 2011. Our 2011 Jackson Hole strategy is to review the Fed’s remarks with an open mind. We will also review the market’s response with an open mind, but as of this writing, our bias heading into the Fed’s annual summer conference will remain defensive and bearish.

QE2 Winners Not Forecasting QE3 Jackson Hole Miracle (SLV, GLD, TLT, SMH, XLE)

--ETF Daily News


 

Also, what's up with Bloomberg's reporting (nearly every day) on inflation rising again, as a threat to any alleged plans for QE3? Isn't Bloomturd clearly aligned with Wall Street Junkies?

Inflation May Embolden Foes of Fed Stimulus 

--Bloomberg

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:26 | 1577046 digitlman
digitlman's picture

Dow swing of 100 pts so far this morning. 

 

 

Fuck em.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:27 | 1577063 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Welcome to the new norm. Hahahahahahah

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:37 | 1577144 CPL
CPL's picture

And there is the signal on level 2, RIS, VXX, etc.

 

Looks like it's time to fall like a rock.  Going to move into TZA in a second with a stop loss and itchy trigger finger.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:42 | 1577188 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

TZA on a day like this?  Please have second thoughts. 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:45 | 1577217 Stumpy
Stumpy's picture

The call was made. Let's look how it will play out.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:22 | 1577411 CPL
CPL's picture

And I'm done trading for the day...it can now all burn to the ground.

 

How did you like my call?  To nearly the second of the cross over into the gutter.  I am always correct, or correction, my HFT is always correct in terms of helping me identify the risks.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:18 | 1577402 CPL
CPL's picture

I'm already out with a $5600 gain.

 

My trading is done for the day.  Just like 2008, 2009, 2010.

 

Only one I won't play is SRS.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:42 | 1577191 fuu
fuu's picture

100 pt moves are so last month.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:27 | 1577064 Cyan Lite
Cyan Lite's picture

BTFD!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:35 | 1577126 maxmad
maxmad's picture
STFR!
Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:36 | 1577135 maxmad
maxmad's picture

In case you didn't get it:  Sell the F'n Rally!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:54 | 1577267 LMAO
LMAO's picture

Nah, Short the fuckin' Rip

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:10 | 1577357 maxmad
maxmad's picture

much better..

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:38 | 1577149 CPL
CPL's picture

Don't...just don't.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:42 | 1577194 maxmad
maxmad's picture

BTFD? 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:16 | 1577390 CPL
CPL's picture

Not yet...wait.  But if anyone feels like losing 80% of their stock money, please by all means BTFD.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:29 | 1577471 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 

 

You have the right mentality.

Color coming in; take your winnings; exit Casino before it all burns down; watch implosion from safe distance, winnings in hand.

Discipline FTW.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 12:26 | 1577767 CPL
CPL's picture

Only reason I've survived trading for 16 years.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:28 | 1577067 alexwest
alexwest's picture

something tell me when (not if) QE3 will be announced it will bring different results from 2010 playbook..

alx

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:34 | 1577123 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Dont dismiss the real possibility QE3 is NOT innevitable! 

But yes, diminishing returns will be a mother on this one if they try to do it, and anything less than diamond encrusted spectacular amount will be a big disapointment.

GS says QE of $350 billion or so? Thats nothing, a fart in a Cat 5 hurricane.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:38 | 1577154 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Refraining from QE3 and taking our medicine is the first step on the path to real recovery.  If the Fed and Co. decide to start making sound economic decisions, then great.  The point of all this Fed hate is that they haven't made good decisions for a VERY long time, and were/are unlikely to make good economic decisions in the future.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:28 | 1577068 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

1. Options Expiration Pit traders will look for "victims"

2. JH is not the EVENT, Dumbama "speach" will be!

3. Short some more today!

 

Nice Weekend y'all!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:46 | 1577224 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

BINGO.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:28 | 1577070 UGrev
UGrev's picture

Bets on half life?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:29 | 1577083 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

15-20 days?

Diminishing returns much.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:31 | 1577102 UGrev
UGrev's picture

I'll roll with that.. 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:28 | 1577073 pendragon
pendragon's picture

usd capitulation? i want some of what the euro bulls are smoking.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:30 | 1577090 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Markets are obviously fine now, QE off.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:32 | 1577091 razorthin
razorthin's picture

No.  Technical bounce of the short-term double bottom.  Don't worry, it fails in a few days/weeks with the 25 dma firmly below the 50 dma, firmly below the 200 dma.  Move on.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:31 | 1577094 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Shorts running for their lives.   It was getting too easy, big boyz suckered the 'easy money' crowd.    It was smelling like this all morning.   The market isn't going to make it easy for anybody.   Ahhh, 2008 all over again.   

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:37 | 1577145 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Shake out the weak short hands and then STFR!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:45 | 1577219 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Something about 'magical DOW 11,000' mark....but BEN here he wants it both ways, cause chaos for QE, but not just yet or not TOO much just now'....dangerous game Ben tightrope walking across the grand canyon while juggling chainsaws.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:13 | 1577381 CPL
CPL's picture

No such thing as a weak short hand, as one of the Tyler's pointed out, this is the old pain game based on how much hurt can you take:

 

So to be clear.  If you are shorting something you need "x" amount of capital to properly do it for any reasonable gain.  To get to that level you either have two places to start from.

 

1)  You had money given to you and the silver spoon is firmly lodged in one's mouth with a team of fuck nuts to manage it. (useless blue blood gene pool throwbacks)

2)  You've invested/traded for a couple of years and established a nice nest egg, discipline, tools, information and sharp sense of timing a trade (day trader, hedge fund, normal people, etc).

 

What is being illustrated are the options plus the much larger and more powerful shadow market of sector level ETF's.  Honestly how many people here honestly understand how to put in a short and manage it properly? 

Actually How many people understand how a short works?  <<---  I've had to explain this to investment bankers and CIO on how the process works....trust me, most people don't know the option is even there.  Get into explaining leveraged ETF/ETN's and the glassy stare takes over....most people still won't move beyond a buy low sell high mentality.

 

Options and ETF/ETN's do.  ETF's/ETN's especially, things are like well capitalized sugar cakes to a diabetic market.  BIG Rush, then big ass crash.  Watch this Sunday night, today is going to be people sitting with their thumbs in their asses, on Sunday night we'll see the Euro become the first horse processed at the glue factory.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:31 | 1577095 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Looks like the lows are in for now:

- EUR and AUD took off this morning before the market opened.

- Retailers like WMT, TGT, etc. were front running the turn, showing relative strength.

- U.S. banks like JPM and WFC could not take out last week's lows.

- Yesterday's opening p/c ratio was 1.71

- Today's opening p/c ratio was 1.59

- Yesterday we had another -1500 TICK and put/call pinned over 1.50 most of the day, with the highest p/c close in over a year

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:38 | 1577155 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Yep... Look its time for you to go all in?  again...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:38 | 1577156 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hey Robo update us on your big 'Bears better pile in all long here at DOW 12,700 youre an idiot if you dont and Ive been posting this advice to blogs all over the place'...

Underwater a bit? Or is that paper trade now cancelled?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:41 | 1577182 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Robo's Transitory

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:44 | 1577207 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

If real fishing was this easy, I'd catch my limit every day. RT doesn't even change lures. 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:48 | 1577244 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

SD-1, you keep reminding Robo of his bullish DOW 12,700 call like people remind Cramer of his "buy Bear Stearns" call in 2008.  We all know it is a disguised way of showing your love for him.   

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