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Did Someone Just Leak QE3? USDJPY Plunges To Fresh All Time Low 75.95, Stocks Soar
Yen surges, USDJPY plunges to a new record low of 75.97 (yes, YNoda is looking, looking, looking although better word is panicking, panicking, panicking), and the ES soared promptly. So... did someone finally leak it? Does the market still not get that it has to be lower the day of Jackson Hole for QE3 to work? Frontrunning any QE3 announcement merely makes it redundant. Bernanke needs stocks around 1000 on August 26, not higher. In the meantime, buy that Sony flat screen today. At this rate of Yen appreciation, the company may not exist in a few months.
USDJPY near all time record low;
And ES kneejerk:
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It's all transitory, risk on bitchez.
Options expiration today?
</sarcasm>
"In the meantime, buy that Sony flat screen today."
but then we'd have to watch "stuff" on it....
Positive development, I need to watch more TV as thinking for oneself is incredibly debilitating these days.
Off to CNN for a 60" talking head learnin' me 'bout what "both sides" are up to.
I watch all of about 4 channels out the 500 worth of shit that is on the basic cable. The shit on TV is just revolting these days and the average member of the public has Jersey Shore manners now.
Again, Tyler, thanks for finally allowing us access to the top-secret "active traders fightroom" of ZH, it has helped our intraday performance immensely and is keeping the personnel department here at Goldman off our back. Since your ES long call at 9.32am this morning, we have already accumulated 40.2% intraday profit on our 50:1 leveraged ES long. Thanks also for sending Robo over to us, he seems to be blending in very well over here.
same situation in '08. hedge fund had to buy up short positions, as everyone unwound them, Also, buying up assets to unwind the yen carry trade. If you see rallies on heavily shorted positions on no news, it would indicate the quant models are breaking down; eye before the hurricane.
The Bernank says unto Primary Dealers:
You are right; Bernanke is such an attention whore.
What's interesting is that Chris Ciovacco (objective analyst) is pretty much stating that the only ones with a 'QE3 will happen bias' are commodity traders, and that even among those who lean towards QE3 (in roughly like form as in the past) happening, almost no one believes it will have anything remotely close to past effect:
...
QE2 Winners Not Forecasting QE3 Jackson Hole Miracle (SLV, GLD, TLT, SMH, XLE)--ETF Daily News
Also, what's up with Bloomberg's reporting (nearly every day) on inflation rising again, as a threat to any alleged plans for QE3? Isn't Bloomturd clearly aligned with Wall Street Junkies?
Inflation May Embolden Foes of Fed Stimulus--Bloomberg
Dow swing of 100 pts so far this morning.
Fuck em.
Welcome to the new norm. Hahahahahahah
And there is the signal on level 2, RIS, VXX, etc.
Looks like it's time to fall like a rock. Going to move into TZA in a second with a stop loss and itchy trigger finger.
TZA on a day like this? Please have second thoughts.
The call was made. Let's look how it will play out.
And I'm done trading for the day...it can now all burn to the ground.
How did you like my call? To nearly the second of the cross over into the gutter. I am always correct, or correction, my HFT is always correct in terms of helping me identify the risks.
I'm already out with a $5600 gain.
My trading is done for the day. Just like 2008, 2009, 2010.
Only one I won't play is SRS.
100 pt moves are so last month.
BTFD!
In case you didn't get it: Sell the F'n Rally!
Nah, Short the fuckin' Rip
much better..
Don't...just don't.
BTFD?
Not yet...wait. But if anyone feels like losing 80% of their stock money, please by all means BTFD.
You have the right mentality.
Color coming in; take your winnings; exit Casino before it all burns down; watch implosion from safe distance, winnings in hand.
Discipline FTW.
Only reason I've survived trading for 16 years.
something tell me when (not if) QE3 will be announced it will bring different results from 2010 playbook..
alx
Dont dismiss the real possibility QE3 is NOT innevitable!
But yes, diminishing returns will be a mother on this one if they try to do it, and anything less than diamond encrusted spectacular amount will be a big disapointment.
GS says QE of $350 billion or so? Thats nothing, a fart in a Cat 5 hurricane.
Refraining from QE3 and taking our medicine is the first step on the path to real recovery. If the Fed and Co. decide to start making sound economic decisions, then great. The point of all this Fed hate is that they haven't made good decisions for a VERY long time, and were/are unlikely to make good economic decisions in the future.
1. Options Expiration Pit traders will look for "victims"
2. JH is not the EVENT, Dumbama "speach" will be!
3. Short some more today!
Nice Weekend y'all!
BINGO.
Bets on half life?
15-20 days?
Diminishing returns much.
I'll roll with that..
usd capitulation? i want some of what the euro bulls are smoking.
Markets are obviously fine now, QE off.
No. Technical bounce of the short-term double bottom. Don't worry, it fails in a few days/weeks with the 25 dma firmly below the 50 dma, firmly below the 200 dma. Move on.
Shorts running for their lives. It was getting too easy, big boyz suckered the 'easy money' crowd. It was smelling like this all morning. The market isn't going to make it easy for anybody. Ahhh, 2008 all over again.
Shake out the weak short hands and then STFR!
Something about 'magical DOW 11,000' mark....but BEN here he wants it both ways, cause chaos for QE, but not just yet or not TOO much just now'....dangerous game Ben tightrope walking across the grand canyon while juggling chainsaws.
No such thing as a weak short hand, as one of the Tyler's pointed out, this is the old pain game based on how much hurt can you take:
So to be clear. If you are shorting something you need "x" amount of capital to properly do it for any reasonable gain. To get to that level you either have two places to start from.
1) You had money given to you and the silver spoon is firmly lodged in one's mouth with a team of fuck nuts to manage it. (useless blue blood gene pool throwbacks)
2) You've invested/traded for a couple of years and established a nice nest egg, discipline, tools, information and sharp sense of timing a trade (day trader, hedge fund, normal people, etc).
What is being illustrated are the options plus the much larger and more powerful shadow market of sector level ETF's. Honestly how many people here honestly understand how to put in a short and manage it properly?
Actually How many people understand how a short works? <<--- I've had to explain this to investment bankers and CIO on how the process works....trust me, most people don't know the option is even there. Get into explaining leveraged ETF/ETN's and the glassy stare takes over....most people still won't move beyond a buy low sell high mentality.
Options and ETF/ETN's do. ETF's/ETN's especially, things are like well capitalized sugar cakes to a diabetic market. BIG Rush, then big ass crash. Watch this Sunday night, today is going to be people sitting with their thumbs in their asses, on Sunday night we'll see the Euro become the first horse processed at the glue factory.
Looks like the lows are in for now:
- EUR and AUD took off this morning before the market opened.
- Retailers like WMT, TGT, etc. were front running the turn, showing relative strength.
- U.S. banks like JPM and WFC could not take out last week's lows.
- Yesterday's opening p/c ratio was 1.71
- Today's opening p/c ratio was 1.59
- Yesterday we had another -1500 TICK and put/call pinned over 1.50 most of the day, with the highest p/c close in over a year
Yep... Look its time for you to go all in? again...
Hey Robo update us on your big 'Bears better pile in all long here at DOW 12,700 youre an idiot if you dont and Ive been posting this advice to blogs all over the place'...
Underwater a bit? Or is that paper trade now cancelled?
Robo's Transitory
If real fishing was this easy, I'd catch my limit every day. RT doesn't even change lures.
SD-1, you keep reminding Robo of his bullish DOW 12,700 call like people remind Cramer of his "buy Bear Stearns" call in 2008. We all know it is a disguised way of showing your love for him.
Your right! It takes alot of talent to call the high of the market...Especially when you go "all in" at the high
Where is Cramer BTW? I miss my bald little buddy...
You don't have to close out imaginary positions.
The 1000 mark is purely arbitral by ZH... Bernanke doesn't care at which level the markets are to announce QE3.
option expiratin today. if market closes at 1100-1140, that's alot of puts in the money (especially hurting those who shorted vol last week, trying to pocket premiums). have to send it higher.
1180ish holds the weekly close only line chart (118ish SPY) to it's long term rising channel.. all's it needs is the QE3 and up we go back up to the top.. of course only in nominal terms, we'll still be spinning our wheels in the mud.
Gold seems to disagree. Still positive but falling fast.
well, you know.. barbarous relic and all..
The Bernank and Hank Williams Jr are going to duet "Family Tradition"
They're afraid of the follow thru if they get even two hard down days - QE3 won't stop it at 1000 - it'll have momemtum by them.
CNBS is about to break out the champagne. this will end badly
ALRIGHT!
EVERYONE BACK IN THE POOL!
Is that a chocolate candybar floating in there?
Zero hedge just made it in the Globe and Mail today,
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/streetwise/who-is-zero-hedge-and-why-should-we-care/article2134968/
The jouranlist doesn't seem very well informed.
AW, another jealous little wanna-be journalist tries to get street cred by asking 'Who is this ZH, and why should I care?' LULZ
"The jouranlist doesn't seem very well informed."
Very few are... and to top it off, most do not write interesting articles...
Here is an economist that gets it, can write well and clearly (with occasional irony and/or humor), and is a good speaker... Steve Keen
Rare combination, that..
"Steven Keen: You need private debt to finance proper investment, but what the banks make money out of is financing Ponzi schemes. Right from the get-go in America and from about the mid-60s in Australia, private debt to income has been rising. And America’s gone from 45 per cent of GDP in 1945 to 300 per cent of GDP by 2009; that’s when it peaked out.
Now, all that’s been financing speculation, and when you finance speculation what you’re really doing is gambling on rising asset prices. The gamble itself drives the asset prices up and then at some point, of course, it has to fall over, because when you’re borrowing money to gamble on rising asset prices, you’re not actually increasing the number or the productivity of those assets. So you’re increasing the debt burden on society without actually increasing society’s capacity to pay.
As soon as people start to try to reduce their debt, you go from rising debt boosting the economy to it slashing demand. Go back to 2008: the GDP in America was roughly $14 trillion but the increase in debt that year was roughly $4 trillion. So that means total spending in the economy was about $18 trillion. Simply slowing down the rate of growth of debt; that means you went from having an $18 trillion economy to a $12.5 trillion economy in two years. That’s what caused the crisis."
I guess he doesn't read books either. Ok, while not ENTIRELY wrong, it certainly isn't the SOURCE of the nom de plume..
It's shallow self interest. Free, unfettered and mostly importantly decentralized, dissemination of information is lethal threat to the corporate media whores and their oligarchical benefactors.
Sites like ZH are literally a threat to their continued existence.
What is the famous Gandhi quote, first they ignore you, then they ridicule you....
-- Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi
Knowledgable posters always expand the article posted by a factor of at least 10! Ignore ZH at yer own (financial) peril!
Fuck tards screwed me this morning. I had a large SDS position and started out nicely. then the goddamn market goes on a "what the fuck???" tear for 40 minutes and had to eject and lick my wounds. From up 1,5% to down 1.5% in 40 goddamn minutes. Hey, I would chock it up to a run of the mill trade that didn't pan out if hindsight could possibly provide some semblance of a sane explantion.
How the fuck does the DOW crank 220 points in 45 minutes on WHAT NEWS??????
Did the PPT step in?
computer programmers smoking crack
You needs super computers like the new ZH servers running a quote stuffing analysis on the first minutes of trading to know when to hold em and when to fold em.
stick your johnson in a light socket and flip the switch next time you want a thrill. it will be cheaper and less painful than playing in this rigged market.
Outstanding advice...
I tried.
It didn't cure me of my desire to make easy money.
There does seem to be an image resembling Jesus on my genitals though. Cool. more easy money.
BZ and IC....
Now that was fucking funny....
Don't trade leveraged inverse ETFs. They will not work in this environment. Look at the fall of 2008. Compare the inverse ETFs to their counterparts. The inverse ETFs do not mirror.
I think it's entirely possible that Bernanke doesn't announce QE3 at Jackson Hole. I mean unless we get a 150 point drop in the S&P in what, a week, it may not happen.
It seems like EVERYONE is expecting QE3 to be announced at Jackson Hole which could be why equities continue to get support. What happens when Bernanke doesn't do what everyone is expecting? That could trigger the plunge that QE3 needs. Bernanke then have an emergency press conference a few days or weeks later saying that the Fed is forced to intervene.
Exactly. And at that point the 'unfortunate but no other option intervention' will not help out any stock 401K holder 1 bit, but simply transfer their assets to the banksters. Flawless, and no one sees it comin at all.
And if he does announce it, we get to see a public execution by the masses in a few short months following.
Either way, I'm happy.
"It seems like EVERYONE is expecting QE3 to be announced at Jackson Hole "
I'm not expecting a QE 3 announcement at Jackson Hole or any time soon...
Not to say the Fed will not provide stealth QE, which they are already doing...
Right, I dont expect a QE3 Hole announcement, and yes theyre already doing QE and have been day after day or we'd now be at DOW 5,000 or so.
It's probably because the BDI rose 3.4% LOL!
Brent spread is heading towards $26. This is just monumental. In July of last year Brent was $76 (as was WTI). Now it's $108. Civilization cannot function at $108.
"Civilization cannot function at $108."
Civilization functioned with 40 acres and a mule... My grandmothers home was lit by ten cents worth of kerosene per month... that included lantern light to milk cows by.
Depends on one's definition of civilization...
'Civilization' to a banker means $5,000 hookers nightly and a sugar bowl full of coke.
'Civilization' to most americans means living on unemployment checks and food stamps from Uncle Scam.
'Civilization' to 75% of the worlds population means living on $2 a day.
I'm still trying to figure out what the fuck a woman can do to earn 5,000 dollars in a night. Pussy/ass/whatever is NOT worth that much for an evening.
Its matter of scale.... a 45 minute threesome in Elmsford NY can be had for $200... $200 to an average schmo is the same as $5000 to IB'er.... Hell someone just paid Elton John $1,000,000 to play at his birthday party...
What? Then why are we still functioning?
I still find it amazing that the peak oilers are blaming this crap on peak oil. If peak oil were causing this problem, oil would be leading everything else, and our problems would be stemming from the manufacturing sector rather than the financial sector. This crisis has been caused by worldwide piss-poor monetary policy and government market intervention.
The Brent-WTI spread is indicative of nothing more than an attempt at MOPE by our financial overlords. Lower "oil" prices will help to clear the way for QE3.
Oil is rising because it is among the most fungible of all real goods. Same reason gold and silver are rising. For this to be a peak oil crisis, oil MUST lead EVERYTHING ELSE. If money is in the lead, then the oil price is going DOWN in real terms. This is clearly not a symptom of peak oil, unless you are arguing that supply and demand no longer have an effect on real prices.
I am now convinced that the IBs are shorting the shit out of WTI with full knowledge that the SPR releases will cover their asses. I wish I had kept the link, where evidence of JPM getting 25% of the first SPR release was documented.
Now, they desperately need to drive the price down in advance of any form of stimulus... You are seeing it in action.
The Au/WTI ratio is at historic highs....
Normalize the price of Brent by the DXY and compare to 2008... not that different. The blowoff top in WTI to 147 was like the blowoff top in Au in Jan 80.... The average monthly prices for Brent are comparable...
Sigh, people STILL don't get it...
Everything is about the ability to stoke future growth. This takes TWO things: 1) Energy (which oil is the primary provider of); 2) [other] Raw materials.
The financial sector was the one that was pushing a bogus future on us, pushing for impossible growth rates. It is patently CLEAR that we do NOT have the TWO things essential for the continuation of the Ponzi.
I'd made the argument years ago that the price of oil is meaningless. Does it matter if it's $20/bbl and everyone's unemployed?
It's very much a symptom of PEAK GROWTH (which requires the above TWO things). Like TPTB can actually allow people to dwell on the notion that future growth ain't going to happen? As soon as that realization occurs it's lights out! The big market movers know that they've got no choice other than to keep playing the music, it's the only song that they know, and if they don't play their positions of power drop to zero.
There is no need to stoke growth if there is no growth in demand. TPTB can't control our minds like a jedi knight to make us think the economy is booming. Everyone laughted at the green shoots and recovery summer. Even the most hardcore braindead 0bots knew it was a lie even though they bleated it all over the media and blogs.
Look at what happened to oil prices when the 2008 recession hit us like a ton of bricks. From $147 to $33. There will never be a situation where everyone is unemployed. Even the cavemen had employment as hunter-gatherers.
I strongly recommend the following article that came out this week:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8268
It is a very even handed analysis of oil and the growth paradigm.
and, gee, who has been writing about this for a few years already?
Umm, Us??
heard that HP is selling the PC division....but whats the PSG::
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/cnbc-tv18-comments/hp-may-mull-options-to-hive-off-its-india-psg-business_578269.html
So is this BTFD or STFR?
For me it's STFR!
STFR? STFU!
Sell the fucking rip
well there was no data other than holy shit Japan is screwed. I guess that is uberbullish for US equities with the five minutes 180 point reversal.
Can anyone trade a market when you can get wiped out in the time it takes for a bathroom break.
Gold and platinum were about to cross as well. Where we going to be at the end of the day? Every day like today just drives more people away from the market.
Does the Bernuke know that QE3 will drive the final nail in the coffin of the retail trader? That it will unlease total civil unrest? Is that the plan?
Q1 and QE2 were announced when the Dollar Index was touching 90. Today its just above 73 and QE3 may need to be bigger than QE1 and QE2 together. Its Hobson Choice for the Bearded One,
Right, its not exactly 2008 anymore when everyone had 'Hope n Change' faith in The One, and our dollar was far higher and gold was $500. Totaly different playing field folks.
Don't worry. They've got it covered.
Shorts covering before the weekend.
This morning market watch talked about leaders writing Eurobond legislation, now BizInsider it talking about it.
This morning market watch talked about leaders writing Eurobond legislation, now BizInsider it talking about it.
Oh, back to 'Eurobond hype' 2 days after they said 'No, we're not doing that, but you do have a new stock transaction tax'....wow if that is 'the news', what a sucker pump!
Eurobond = Every taxpaying German being indebted to the tune of 5 lifetimes' worth of earnings to save PIIGS+France for maybe another 3 years; aka Germans committing economic suicide at personal level to buy 2 to 3 years worth of welfare state benefits for PIIGS+France when the fall of the EU is inevitable.
Yeaaaahhhhh, that's going to happen.
/sarc/
The USDJPY dance is somethign to behold. Like two drunken teenagers on their first night out, they are so busy making each other happy that they don't notice the entire party is staring at them, agape.
Both carry trade currencies, like no other. of course it will end really really badly.
Cue BOJ intervention and pity Japan. They were good when they were insular. This globalization crap has killed the country in a 150 short years. LIP!
Vivek
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
This whole financial charade needs to end in a collapse to save America from these banking bastards
Did someonne leak QE 3? Yeah, Rick fuckin' Perry!
Rick Perry, LOL total invention of the 2 headed-1 party political banker machine that doesnt have 1 bit of real support from anyone not even Texans! Dont you love the way the machine wheels out some ultra insider, Bilderberg member, and says 'Here...see you like this guy....no...you LOVE him'!
Such a clownshow.
Perry grabs one or two of Ron Paul's talking points and, voila, an electable Ron Paul. What's not to like?
LOVE IT
Is Bernanke actually KGB from the movie rounders?
I sent him a bag of oreos for his Jackson Hole trip! I hope he has fun at camp!
Have you noticed that his voice cracks and he looks really nervous when he gets grilled by congress? Is that his conscience talking to him? Does he have a conscience?
He's certainly not the sophist that the Maestro is. Then again, it's rare to have one skilled person follow another in any position. Especially when they can use the next person as the fall guy for the glossed over errors of the former.
I think The Bernank "sees dead people". I'm sure he has info that scares the hell out of him everyday, scared of total depression. Foot on the gas pedal hoping for a lightning strike spark of life and push the limits of dollar destruction to repay our debt. He'd rather face flirting with hyperinflation than depression. I think we'll get both in a head spinning whip saw. Stagflation until something breaks one way or the other.
Pay dis man hees mohney.
Got to love it, a little bounce off yesterday's 400+ points to the downside and all shorties are shitting in their pants! My advice here: stay short and short some more into every little bounce that comes along! This ain't over yet folks! I know, when everybody and their mommies scream doom markets turn, well guess what..."it's different this time" :))) !
Im not shitting anything, just chuckling. If anyone really expects a further plunge from -420 down day prior theyre a bit over anxious.
The collapse is here, just buckle up for a rough bouncy ride.
If no QE3 to the rescue, this sh&^ collapses!
Long Precious.
Long some fiatski (for now).
Very short Jackson Hole (people are expecting The Bernank to make the rabbit disappear when he's only going to rip its fur off, to the crowd's shock and horror).
Bernanke's no magician; he's peddling snake oil made with a Chinese Melamine base concoction.
Bring it, Bubbles&BananasBungaBernank.
Long bullets, gear, MRE's and canned food, FTW.
Here come the Eurotards, snarfing long bonds again.
TMV for 20.80, Alex!
TD Ameritrade is throwing off 404 errors.
Same problem here, click FAZ position coming up CMG = WTF!?!?
Let's see if Rick Perry is a talker or a walker if Benny prints again. My money is on Perry not saying a GD word about it if it happens. That would be one way to stifle that Dubya wannabe fool. He will be more likely to say something like, "well let's not jump to conclusions here, we need more facts...blah blah blah".
Perry will talk the talk. But if elected he won't walk the walk. See Obama, Barrack and "Gitmo"
so how many billions did Japan piss down the drain supporting the Yen last week? Have to wonder when they will stop committing hari kari being US's bitch
I'm tired of seeing comments about that idiot Rick Perry...
How many morons from Texas do we have to suffer in one lifetime?
Let's talk Ron Paul...
Ron Paul is from Texas
..
and another vapor rally bites the dust...at least for the moment...
Wasn't really that long ago the Yen was 115. I remember when the USDJPY was 97 in 2009, and the BOJ predicted it would eventually hit 80 and stabilize. Little did he know.
Please excuse my ignorance, but why would the currency of a country slowly dying of radiation be worth what it is at this point? There's no hope for a rally, soon all the workers will be dead and no children to replace them. No industry will be moving there. At some point they'll just turn the pumps off and let the world suck radionuclides.
Maybe because the country is not dying of radiation.
http://enenews.com/researcher-tokyo-sample-had-radioactivity-levels-high...
Doctor near Tokyo attributes symptoms to radiation exposure: We have begun to see increased nosebleeds, stubborn cases of diarrhea, and flu-like symptoms in childrenhttp://enenews.com/doctor-tokyo-attributes-symptoms-radiation-exposure-b...
There is a special place in hell for Japanese politicians.
Radiation hormesis. It's good for currency. Ann Coulter said so.
Its so fun to watch the rumor hit...market spike...then people go oh shit it wasn't real...
Head fake!
A strong currency is good for their economy.
Yahoo only reports:
Day's Range: 76.3050 - 76.9550