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Did Someone Just Leak QE3? USDJPY Plunges To Fresh All Time Low 75.95, Stocks Soar

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Yen surges, USDJPY plunges to a new record low of 75.97 (yes, YNoda is looking, looking, looking although better word is panicking, panicking, panicking), and the ES soared promptly. So... did someone finally leak it? Does the market still not get that it has to be lower the day of Jackson Hole for QE3 to work? Frontrunning any QE3 announcement merely makes it redundant. Bernanke needs stocks around 1000 on August 26, not higher. In the meantime, buy that Sony flat screen today. At this rate of Yen appreciation, the company may not exist in a few months.

USDJPY near all time record low;

And ES kneejerk:

 

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Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:25 | 1577034 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

It's all transitory, risk on bitchez.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:34 | 1577122 IBelieveInMagic
IBelieveInMagic's picture

Options expiration today?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:35 | 1577129 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

</sarcasm>

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:00 | 1577299 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

"In the meantime, buy that Sony flat screen today."

but then we'd have to watch "stuff" on it....

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:27 | 1577456 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Positive development, I need to watch more TV as thinking for oneself is incredibly debilitating these days.

Off to CNN for a 60" talking head learnin' me 'bout what "both sides" are up to.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 14:54 | 1578406 trav7777
trav7777's picture

I watch all of about 4 channels out the 500 worth of shit that is on the basic cable.  The shit on TV is just revolting these days and the average member of the public has Jersey Shore manners now.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:40 | 1577178 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Again, Tyler, thanks for finally allowing us access to the top-secret "active traders fightroom" of ZH, it has helped our intraday performance immensely and is keeping the personnel department here at Goldman off our back.   Since your ES long call at 9.32am this morning, we have already accumulated 40.2% intraday profit on our 50:1 leveraged ES long.  Thanks also for sending Robo over to us, he seems to be blending in very well over here. 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:15 | 1577332 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

same situation in '08.  hedge fund had to buy up short positions, as everyone unwound them, Also, buying up assets to unwind the yen carry trade.  If you see rallies on heavily shorted positions on no news, it would indicate the quant models are breaking down; eye before the hurricane.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:26 | 1577039 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 

 

The Bernank says unto Primary Dealers:

Do not buy LULU or BAIDU yet, morons. You're cockblocking my Jackson Hole speech.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:49 | 1577247 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

You are right; Bernanke is such an attention whore.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:52 | 1577259 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

What's interesting is that Chris Ciovacco (objective analyst) is pretty much stating that the only ones with a 'QE3 will happen bias' are commodity traders, and that even among those who lean towards QE3 (in roughly like form as in the past) happening, almost no one believes it will have anything remotely close to past effect:

 

Chris Ciovacco:  In 2009 and 2010, the Federal Reserve was able to reverse sharp declines in asset prices by pumping large amounts of printed money into the global financial system via quantitative easing. With the Fed’s 2011 Jackson Hole speech set to take place on August 26, we recently reviewed the ETF winners from QE2 looking to see if the market is anticipating the launch of QE3. Like the bearish similarities to 2008, our findings below are not encouraging for the stock market bulls. A recent review of QE2 winners indicates one of two things:

  1. The market does not believe the Fed will announce QE3 in the coming weeks or
  2. The market believes the deflationary forces in the economy are so great that QE3 would have little impact on asset prices.

...

In the summer of 2010, global financial markets were sitting on a fine bull/bear demarcation line as we outlined in this August 15 video. The Fed’s August 2010 Jackson Hole speech telegraphed the central bank’s intention of launching QE2. The impact on asset prices was dramatic in 2010. Even if QE3 is announced, the impact may be much more muted in 2011. Our 2011 Jackson Hole strategy is to review the Fed’s remarks with an open mind. We will also review the market’s response with an open mind, but as of this writing, our bias heading into the Fed’s annual summer conference will remain defensive and bearish.

QE2 Winners Not Forecasting QE3 Jackson Hole Miracle (SLV, GLD, TLT, SMH, XLE)

--ETF Daily News


 

Also, what's up with Bloomberg's reporting (nearly every day) on inflation rising again, as a threat to any alleged plans for QE3? Isn't Bloomturd clearly aligned with Wall Street Junkies?

Inflation May Embolden Foes of Fed Stimulus 

--Bloomberg

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:26 | 1577046 digitlman
digitlman's picture

Dow swing of 100 pts so far this morning. 

 

 

Fuck em.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:27 | 1577063 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Welcome to the new norm. Hahahahahahah

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:37 | 1577144 CPL
CPL's picture

And there is the signal on level 2, RIS, VXX, etc.

 

Looks like it's time to fall like a rock.  Going to move into TZA in a second with a stop loss and itchy trigger finger.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:42 | 1577188 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

TZA on a day like this?  Please have second thoughts. 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:45 | 1577217 Stumpy
Stumpy's picture

The call was made. Let's look how it will play out.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:22 | 1577411 CPL
CPL's picture

And I'm done trading for the day...it can now all burn to the ground.

 

How did you like my call?  To nearly the second of the cross over into the gutter.  I am always correct, or correction, my HFT is always correct in terms of helping me identify the risks.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:18 | 1577402 CPL
CPL's picture

I'm already out with a $5600 gain.

 

My trading is done for the day.  Just like 2008, 2009, 2010.

 

Only one I won't play is SRS.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:42 | 1577191 fuu
fuu's picture

100 pt moves are so last month.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:27 | 1577064 Cyan Lite
Cyan Lite's picture

BTFD!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:35 | 1577126 maxmad
maxmad's picture
STFR!
Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:36 | 1577135 maxmad
maxmad's picture

In case you didn't get it:  Sell the F'n Rally!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:54 | 1577267 LMAO
LMAO's picture

Nah, Short the fuckin' Rip

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:10 | 1577357 maxmad
maxmad's picture

much better..

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:38 | 1577149 CPL
CPL's picture

Don't...just don't.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:42 | 1577194 maxmad
maxmad's picture

BTFD? 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:16 | 1577390 CPL
CPL's picture

Not yet...wait.  But if anyone feels like losing 80% of their stock money, please by all means BTFD.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:29 | 1577471 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 

 

You have the right mentality.

Color coming in; take your winnings; exit Casino before it all burns down; watch implosion from safe distance, winnings in hand.

Discipline FTW.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 12:26 | 1577767 CPL
CPL's picture

Only reason I've survived trading for 16 years.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:28 | 1577067 alexwest
alexwest's picture

something tell me when (not if) QE3 will be announced it will bring different results from 2010 playbook..

alx

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:34 | 1577123 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Dont dismiss the real possibility QE3 is NOT innevitable! 

But yes, diminishing returns will be a mother on this one if they try to do it, and anything less than diamond encrusted spectacular amount will be a big disapointment.

GS says QE of $350 billion or so? Thats nothing, a fart in a Cat 5 hurricane.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:38 | 1577154 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Refraining from QE3 and taking our medicine is the first step on the path to real recovery.  If the Fed and Co. decide to start making sound economic decisions, then great.  The point of all this Fed hate is that they haven't made good decisions for a VERY long time, and were/are unlikely to make good economic decisions in the future.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:28 | 1577068 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

1. Options Expiration Pit traders will look for "victims"

2. JH is not the EVENT, Dumbama "speach" will be!

3. Short some more today!

 

Nice Weekend y'all!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:46 | 1577224 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

BINGO.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:28 | 1577070 UGrev
UGrev's picture

Bets on half life?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:29 | 1577083 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

15-20 days?

Diminishing returns much.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:31 | 1577102 UGrev
UGrev's picture

I'll roll with that.. 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:28 | 1577073 pendragon
pendragon's picture

usd capitulation? i want some of what the euro bulls are smoking.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:30 | 1577090 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Markets are obviously fine now, QE off.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:32 | 1577091 razorthin
razorthin's picture

No.  Technical bounce of the short-term double bottom.  Don't worry, it fails in a few days/weeks with the 25 dma firmly below the 50 dma, firmly below the 200 dma.  Move on.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:31 | 1577094 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

Shorts running for their lives.   It was getting too easy, big boyz suckered the 'easy money' crowd.    It was smelling like this all morning.   The market isn't going to make it easy for anybody.   Ahhh, 2008 all over again.   

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:37 | 1577145 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Shake out the weak short hands and then STFR!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:45 | 1577219 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Something about 'magical DOW 11,000' mark....but BEN here he wants it both ways, cause chaos for QE, but not just yet or not TOO much just now'....dangerous game Ben tightrope walking across the grand canyon while juggling chainsaws.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:13 | 1577381 CPL
CPL's picture

No such thing as a weak short hand, as one of the Tyler's pointed out, this is the old pain game based on how much hurt can you take:

 

So to be clear.  If you are shorting something you need "x" amount of capital to properly do it for any reasonable gain.  To get to that level you either have two places to start from.

 

1)  You had money given to you and the silver spoon is firmly lodged in one's mouth with a team of fuck nuts to manage it. (useless blue blood gene pool throwbacks)

2)  You've invested/traded for a couple of years and established a nice nest egg, discipline, tools, information and sharp sense of timing a trade (day trader, hedge fund, normal people, etc).

 

What is being illustrated are the options plus the much larger and more powerful shadow market of sector level ETF's.  Honestly how many people here honestly understand how to put in a short and manage it properly? 

Actually How many people understand how a short works?  <<---  I've had to explain this to investment bankers and CIO on how the process works....trust me, most people don't know the option is even there.  Get into explaining leveraged ETF/ETN's and the glassy stare takes over....most people still won't move beyond a buy low sell high mentality.

 

Options and ETF/ETN's do.  ETF's/ETN's especially, things are like well capitalized sugar cakes to a diabetic market.  BIG Rush, then big ass crash.  Watch this Sunday night, today is going to be people sitting with their thumbs in their asses, on Sunday night we'll see the Euro become the first horse processed at the glue factory.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:31 | 1577095 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Looks like the lows are in for now:

- EUR and AUD took off this morning before the market opened.

- Retailers like WMT, TGT, etc. were front running the turn, showing relative strength.

- U.S. banks like JPM and WFC could not take out last week's lows.

- Yesterday's opening p/c ratio was 1.71

- Today's opening p/c ratio was 1.59

- Yesterday we had another -1500 TICK and put/call pinned over 1.50 most of the day, with the highest p/c close in over a year

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:38 | 1577155 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Yep... Look its time for you to go all in?  again...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:38 | 1577156 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hey Robo update us on your big 'Bears better pile in all long here at DOW 12,700 youre an idiot if you dont and Ive been posting this advice to blogs all over the place'...

Underwater a bit? Or is that paper trade now cancelled?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:41 | 1577182 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Robo's Transitory

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:44 | 1577207 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

If real fishing was this easy, I'd catch my limit every day. RT doesn't even change lures. 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:48 | 1577244 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

SD-1, you keep reminding Robo of his bullish DOW 12,700 call like people remind Cramer of his "buy Bear Stearns" call in 2008.  We all know it is a disguised way of showing your love for him.   

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:05 | 1577329 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Your right!  It takes alot of talent to call the high of the market...Especially when you go "all in" at the high

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:22 | 1577426 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Where is Cramer BTW?  I miss my bald little buddy...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 12:34 | 1577837 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

You don't have to close out imaginary positions.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:32 | 1577096 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

The 1000 mark is purely arbitral by ZH... Bernanke doesn't care at which level the markets are to announce QE3.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:31 | 1577097 KevinH
KevinH's picture

option expiratin today. if market closes at 1100-1140, that's alot of puts in the money (especially hurting those who shorted vol last week, trying to pocket premiums). have to send it higher. 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:53 | 1577239 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

1180ish holds the weekly close only line chart (118ish SPY) to it's long term rising channel..   all's it needs is the QE3 and up we go back up to the top.. of course only in nominal terms, we'll still be spinning our wheels in the mud.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:31 | 1577101 Scisco
Scisco's picture

Gold seems to disagree. Still positive but falling fast.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:32 | 1577109 UGrev
UGrev's picture

well, you know.. barbarous relic and all.. 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 12:37 | 1577851 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

The Bernank and Hank Williams Jr are going to duet "Family Tradition"

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:32 | 1577104 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

They're afraid of the follow thru if they get even two hard down days - QE3 won't stop it at 1000 - it'll have momemtum by them. 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:33 | 1577115 oogs66
oogs66's picture

CNBS is about to break out the champagne.  this will end badly

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:33 | 1577116 digalert
digalert's picture

ALRIGHT!

EVERYONE BACK IN THE POOL!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:31 | 1577486 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Is that a chocolate candybar floating in there?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:34 | 1577121 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Zero hedge just made it in the Globe and Mail today, 

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/streetwise/who-is-zero-hedge-and-why-should-we-care/article2134968/

 

The jouranlist doesn't seem very well informed.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:36 | 1577136 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

AW, another jealous little wanna-be journalist tries to get street cred by asking 'Who is this ZH, and why should I care?' LULZ

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:44 | 1577214 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"The jouranlist doesn't seem very well informed."

Very few are... and to top it off, most do not write interesting articles...

Here is an economist that gets it, can write well and clearly (with occasional irony and/or humor), and is a good speaker... Steve Keen

Rare combination, that..

"Steven Keen: You need private debt to finance proper investment, but what the banks make money out of is financing Ponzi schemes. Right from the get-go in America and from about the mid-60s in Australia, private debt to income has been rising. And America’s gone from 45 per cent of GDP in 1945 to 300 per cent of GDP by 2009; that’s when it peaked out.

Now, all that’s been financing speculation, and when you finance speculation what you’re really doing is gambling on rising asset prices. The gamble itself drives the asset prices up and then at some point, of course, it has to fall over, because when you’re borrowing money to gamble on rising asset prices, you’re not actually increasing the number or the productivity of those assets. So you’re increasing the debt burden on society without actually increasing society’s capacity to pay.

As soon as people start to try to reduce their debt, you go from rising debt boosting the economy to it slashing demand. Go back to 2008: the GDP in America was roughly $14 trillion but the increase in debt that year was roughly $4 trillion. So that means total spending in the economy was about $18 trillion. Simply slowing down the rate of growth of debt; that means you went from having an $18 trillion economy to a $12.5 trillion economy in two years. That’s what caused the crisis."

 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 12:03 | 1577647 UGrev
UGrev's picture

Durden is an anonymous blogger with a nom de plume cribbed from a Brad Pitt movie

I guess he doesn't read books either. Ok, while not ENTIRELY wrong, it certainly isn't the SOURCE of the nom de plume.. 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:04 | 1577301 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

It's shallow self interest. Free, unfettered and mostly importantly decentralized, dissemination of information is lethal threat to the corporate media whores and their oligarchical benefactors.

Sites like ZH are literally a threat to their continued existence.

What is the famous Gandhi quote, first they ignore you, then they ridicule you....

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:33 | 1577489 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 

 

First they ignore you, then they ridicule you, then they fight you, then you win.”

 

-- Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 21:35 | 1579822 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Knowledgable posters always expand the article posted by a factor of at least 10!  Ignore ZH at yer own (financial) peril!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:38 | 1577140 Frankie Carbone
Frankie Carbone's picture

Fuck tards screwed me this morning. I had a large SDS position and started out nicely. then the goddamn market goes on a "what the fuck???" tear for 40 minutes and had to eject and lick my wounds. From up 1,5% to down 1.5% in 40 goddamn minutes. Hey, I would chock it up to a run of the mill trade that didn't pan out if hindsight could possibly provide some semblance of a sane explantion.

How the fuck does the DOW crank 220 points in 45 minutes on WHAT NEWS??????

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:40 | 1577173 digitlman
digitlman's picture

Did the PPT step in?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:41 | 1577183 adr
adr's picture

computer programmers smoking crack

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:46 | 1577221 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

You needs super computers like the new ZH servers running a quote stuffing analysis on the first minutes of trading to know when to hold em and when to fold em. 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:56 | 1577280 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

stick your johnson in a light socket and flip the switch next time you want a thrill. it will be cheaper and less painful than playing in this rigged market.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:22 | 1577427 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Outstanding advice...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:46 | 1577572 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

I tried.

It didn't cure me of my desire to make easy money.

There does seem to be an image resembling Jesus on my genitals though. Cool. more easy money.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 13:43 | 1577589 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

BZ and IC....

Now that was fucking funny....

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 13:24 | 1578014 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Don't trade leveraged inverse ETFs.  They will not work in this environment.  Look at the fall of 2008.  Compare the inverse ETFs to their counterparts.  The inverse ETFs do not mirror.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:38 | 1577152 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

I think it's entirely possible that Bernanke doesn't announce QE3 at Jackson Hole.  I mean unless we get a 150 point drop in the S&P in what, a week, it may not happen.

It seems like EVERYONE is expecting QE3 to be announced at Jackson Hole which could be why equities continue to get support.  What happens when Bernanke doesn't do what everyone is expecting?  That could trigger the plunge that QE3 needs.  Bernanke then have an emergency press conference a few days or weeks later saying that the Fed is forced to intervene.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:41 | 1577164 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Exactly. And at that point the 'unfortunate but no other option intervention' will not help out any stock 401K holder 1 bit, but simply transfer their assets to the banksters. Flawless, and no one sees it comin at all.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:40 | 1577175 razorthin
razorthin's picture

And if he does announce it, we get to see a public execution by the masses in a few short months following.

Either way, I'm happy.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:47 | 1577235 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"It seems like EVERYONE is expecting QE3 to be announced at Jackson Hole "

I'm not expecting a QE 3 announcement at Jackson Hole or any time soon...

Not to say the Fed will not provide stealth QE, which they are already doing...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:54 | 1577268 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, I dont expect a QE3 Hole announcement, and yes theyre already doing QE and have been day after day or we'd now be at DOW 5,000 or so.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:38 | 1577157 WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

It's probably because the BDI rose 3.4%  LOL!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:39 | 1577165 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Brent spread is heading towards $26.  This is just monumental.  In July of last year Brent was $76 (as was WTI).  Now it's $108.  Civilization cannot function at $108.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:51 | 1577257 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"Civilization cannot function at $108."

Civilization functioned with 40 acres and a mule... My grandmothers home was lit by ten cents worth of kerosene per month... that included lantern light to milk cows by.

Depends on one's definition of civilization...

 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:59 | 1577294 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Civilization' to a banker means $5,000 hookers nightly and a sugar bowl full of coke.

'Civilization' to most americans means living on unemployment checks and food stamps from Uncle Scam.

'Civilization' to 75% of the worlds population means living on $2 a day.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:32 | 1577490 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

I'm still trying to figure out what the fuck a woman can do to earn 5,000 dollars in a night.    Pussy/ass/whatever is NOT worth that much for an evening.  

 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 12:32 | 1577811 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Its matter of scale.... a 45 minute threesome in Elmsford NY can be had for $200... $200 to an average schmo is the same as $5000 to IB'er.... Hell someone just paid Elton John $1,000,000 to play at his birthday party...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:55 | 1577278 tmosley
tmosley's picture

What?  Then why are we still functioning?

I still find it amazing that the peak oilers are blaming this crap on peak oil.  If peak oil were causing this problem, oil would be leading everything else, and our problems would be stemming from the manufacturing sector rather than the financial sector.  This crisis has been caused by worldwide piss-poor monetary policy and government market intervention.  

The Brent-WTI spread is indicative of nothing more than an attempt at MOPE by our financial overlords.  Lower "oil" prices will help to clear the way for QE3.

Oil is rising because it is among the most fungible of all real goods.  Same reason gold and silver are rising.  For this to be a peak oil crisis, oil MUST lead EVERYTHING ELSE.  If money is in the lead, then the oil price is going DOWN in real terms.  This is clearly not a symptom of peak oil, unless you are arguing that supply and demand no longer have an effect on real prices. 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:15 | 1577387 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I am now convinced that the IBs are shorting the shit out of WTI with full knowledge that the SPR releases will cover their asses. I wish I had kept the link, where evidence of JPM getting 25% of the first SPR release was documented. 

Now, they desperately need to drive the price down in advance of any form of stimulus... You are seeing it in action. 

The Au/WTI ratio is at historic highs....

Normalize the price of Brent by the DXY and compare to 2008... not that different. The blowoff top in WTI to 147 was like the blowoff top in Au in Jan 80.... The average monthly prices for Brent are comparable...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:27 | 1577460 Seer
Seer's picture

Sigh, people STILL don't get it...

Everything is about the ability to stoke future growth.  This takes TWO things: 1) Energy (which oil is the primary provider of); 2) [other] Raw materials.

The financial sector was the one that was pushing a bogus future on us, pushing for impossible growth rates.  It is patently CLEAR that we do NOT have the TWO things essential for the continuation of the Ponzi.

I'd made the argument years ago that the price of oil is meaningless.  Does it matter if it's $20/bbl and everyone's unemployed?

It's very much a symptom of PEAK GROWTH (which requires the above TWO things).  Like TPTB can actually allow people to dwell on the notion that future growth ain't going to happen?  As soon as that realization occurs it's lights out!  The big market movers know that they've got no choice other than to keep playing the music, it's the only song that they know, and if they don't play their positions of power drop to zero.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:39 | 1577535 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

There is no need to stoke growth if there is no growth in demand. TPTB can't control our minds like a jedi knight to make us think the economy is booming. Everyone laughted at the green shoots and recovery summer. Even the most hardcore braindead 0bots knew it was a lie even though they bleated it all over the media and blogs.

Look at what happened to oil prices when the 2008 recession hit us like a ton of bricks. From $147 to $33. There will never be a situation where everyone is unemployed. Even the cavemen had employment as hunter-gatherers.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:55 | 1577608 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I strongly recommend the following article that came out this week:

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8268

It is a very even handed analysis of oil and the growth paradigm.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 20:56 | 1579741 trav7777
trav7777's picture

and, gee, who has been writing about this for a few years already?

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 00:28 | 1580275 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Umm, Us??

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:39 | 1577168 Tense INDIAN
Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:39 | 1577169 maxmad
maxmad's picture

So is this BTFD or STFR?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:01 | 1577310 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

For me it's STFR!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 12:42 | 1577876 MrPoopypants
MrPoopypants's picture

STFR? STFU!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 12:47 | 1577894 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Sell the fucking rip

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:40 | 1577171 adr
adr's picture

well there was no data other than holy shit Japan is screwed. I guess that is uberbullish for US equities with the five minutes 180 point reversal.

Can anyone trade a market when you can get wiped out in the time it takes for a bathroom break.

Gold and platinum were about to cross as well. Where we going to be at the end of the day? Every day like today just drives more people away from the market.

Does the Bernuke know that QE3 will drive the final nail in the coffin of the retail trader? That it will unlease total civil unrest? Is that the plan?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:40 | 1577180 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Q1 and QE2 were announced when the Dollar Index was touching 90. Today its just above 73 and QE3 may need to be bigger than QE1 and QE2 together. Its Hobson Choice for the Bearded One,

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:56 | 1577283 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right, its not exactly 2008 anymore when everyone had 'Hope n Change' faith in The One, and our dollar was far higher and gold was $500. Totaly different playing field folks.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 13:30 | 1578043 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Don't worry.  They've got it covered.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:41 | 1577187 There ya go again.
There ya go again.'s picture

Shorts covering before the weekend.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:43 | 1577197 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

This morning market watch talked about leaders writing Eurobond legislation, now BizInsider it talking about it.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:43 | 1577198 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

This morning market watch talked about leaders writing Eurobond legislation, now BizInsider it talking about it.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:48 | 1577243 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh, back to 'Eurobond hype' 2 days after they said 'No, we're not doing that, but you do have a new stock transaction tax'....wow if that is 'the news', what a sucker pump!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:07 | 1577340 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Eurobond = Every taxpaying German being indebted to the tune of 5 lifetimes' worth of earnings to save PIIGS+France for maybe another 3 years; aka Germans committing economic suicide at personal level to buy 2 to 3 years worth of welfare state benefits for PIIGS+France when the fall of the EU is inevitable.

Yeaaaahhhhh, that's going to happen.

/sarc/

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:43 | 1577199 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

The USDJPY dance is somethign to behold. Like two drunken teenagers on their first night out, they are so busy making each other happy that they don't notice the entire party is staring at them, agape.

Both carry trade currencies, like no other. of course it will end really really badly. 

Cue BOJ intervention and pity Japan. They were good when they were insular. This globalization crap has killed the country in a 150 short years. LIP! 

Vivek

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:44 | 1577210 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

This whole financial charade needs to end in a collapse to save America from these banking bastards

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:47 | 1577231 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Did someonne leak QE 3?  Yeah, Rick fuckin' Perry!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:51 | 1577254 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Rick Perry, LOL total invention of the 2 headed-1 party political banker machine that doesnt have 1 bit of real support from anyone not even Texans! Dont you love the way the machine wheels out some ultra insider, Bilderberg member, and says 'Here...see you like this guy....no...you LOVE him'! 

Such a clownshow.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 13:32 | 1578051 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Perry grabs one or two of Ron Paul's talking points and, voila, an electable Ron Paul.  What's not to like?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:52 | 1577260 swiss chick
swiss chick's picture

LOVE IT

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:57 | 1577287 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Is Bernanke actually KGB from the movie rounders?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:08 | 1577349 maxmad
maxmad's picture

I sent him a bag of oreos for his Jackson Hole trip!  I hope he has fun at camp!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:14 | 1577384 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Have you noticed that his voice cracks and he looks really nervous when he gets grilled by congress?  Is that his conscience talking to him?  Does he have a conscience? 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:38 | 1577533 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

He's certainly not the sophist that the Maestro is. Then again, it's rare to have one skilled person follow another in any position. Especially when they can use the next person as the fall guy for the glossed over errors of the former.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 13:24 | 1578018 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

I think The Bernank "sees dead people".   I'm sure he has info that scares the hell out of him everyday, scared of total depression.   Foot on the gas pedal hoping for a lightning strike spark of life and push the limits of dollar destruction to repay our debt.   He'd rather face flirting with hyperinflation than depression.   I think we'll get both in a head spinning whip saw.      Stagflation until something breaks one way or the other.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:11 | 1577365 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Pay dis man hees mohney.

 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 10:59 | 1577295 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Got to love it, a little bounce off yesterday's 400+ points to the downside and all shorties are shitting in their pants! My advice here: stay short and short some more into every little bounce that comes along! This ain't over yet folks! I know, when everybody and their mommies scream doom markets turn, well guess what..."it's different this time" :))) !

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:01 | 1577311 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Im not shitting anything, just chuckling. If anyone really expects a further plunge from -420 down day prior theyre a bit over anxious. 

The collapse is here, just buckle up for a rough bouncy ride.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:15 | 1577388 maxmad
maxmad's picture

If no QE3 to the rescue, this sh&^ collapses!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:01 | 1577307 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 

 

Long Precious.

Long some fiatski (for now).

Very short Jackson Hole (people are expecting The Bernank to make the rabbit disappear when he's only going to rip its fur off, to the crowd's shock and horror).

Bernanke's no magician; he's peddling snake oil made with a Chinese Melamine base concoction.

Bring it, Bubbles&BananasBungaBernank.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:03 | 1577315 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Long bullets, gear, MRE's and canned food, FTW.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:13 | 1577355 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Here come the Eurotards, snarfing long bonds again.

TMV for 20.80, Alex!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:11 | 1577361 Living_Stone
Living_Stone's picture

TD Ameritrade is throwing off 404 errors.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:25 | 1577443 Theta_Burn
Theta_Burn's picture

Same problem here, click FAZ position coming up CMG = WTF!?!?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:16 | 1577391 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Let's see if Rick Perry is a talker or a walker if Benny prints again. My money is on Perry not saying a GD word about it if it happens. That would be one way to stifle that Dubya wannabe fool. He will be more likely to say something like, "well let's not jump to conclusions here, we need more facts...blah blah blah".

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 13:36 | 1578068 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Perry will talk the talk.  But if elected he won't walk the walk.  See Obama, Barrack and "Gitmo"

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:24 | 1577437 markar
markar's picture

so how many billions did Japan piss down the drain supporting the Yen last week? Have to wonder when they will stop committing hari kari being US's bitch

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:27 | 1577449 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

I'm tired of seeing comments about that idiot Rick Perry...

How many morons from Texas do we have to suffer in one lifetime?

Let's talk Ron Paul...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 12:31 | 1577804 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Ron Paul is from Texas

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:38 | 1577512 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

..

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:40 | 1577540 marcusfenix
marcusfenix's picture

and another vapor rally bites the dust...at least for the moment...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:40 | 1577543 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Wasn't really that long ago the Yen was 115. I remember when the USDJPY was 97 in 2009, and the BOJ predicted it would eventually hit 80 and stabilize. Little did he know.

 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:41 | 1577548 Young Buckethead
Young Buckethead's picture

Please excuse my ignorance, but why would the currency of a country slowly dying of radiation be worth what it is at this point? There's no hope for a rally, soon all the workers will be dead and no children to replace them. No industry will be moving there. At some point they'll just turn the pumps off and let the world suck radionuclides.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 11:42 | 1577553 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Its so fun to watch the rumor hit...market spike...then people go oh shit it wasn't real...

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 12:01 | 1577632 Seer
Seer's picture

Head fake!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 12:06 | 1577660 TheJudge2012
TheJudge2012's picture

A strong currency is good for their economy.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 13:02 | 1577945 ThirdCoastSurfer
ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

Yahoo only reports: 

Day's Range: 76.3050 - 76.9550
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