Did Someone Just Leak QE3? USDJPY Plunges To Fresh All Time Low 75.95, Stocks Soar

Tyler Durden's picture

Yen surges, USDJPY plunges to a new record low of 75.97 (yes, YNoda is looking, looking, looking although better word is panicking, panicking, panicking), and the ES soared promptly. So... did someone finally leak it? Does the market still not get that it has to be lower the day of Jackson Hole for QE3 to work? Frontrunning any QE3 announcement merely makes it redundant. Bernanke needs stocks around 1000 on August 26, not higher. In the meantime, buy that Sony flat screen today. At this rate of Yen appreciation, the company may not exist in a few months.

USDJPY near all time record low;

And ES kneejerk:

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thedrickster's picture

It's all transitory, risk on bitchez.

Bananamerican's picture

"In the meantime, buy that Sony flat screen today."

but then we'd have to watch "stuff" on it....

thedrickster's picture

Positive development, I need to watch more TV as thinking for oneself is incredibly debilitating these days.

Off to CNN for a 60" talking head learnin' me 'bout what "both sides" are up to.

trav7777's picture

I watch all of about 4 channels out the 500 worth of shit that is on the basic cable.  The shit on TV is just revolting these days and the average member of the public has Jersey Shore manners now.

slaughterer's picture

Again, Tyler, thanks for finally allowing us access to the top-secret "active traders fightroom" of ZH, it has helped our intraday performance immensely and is keeping the personnel department here at Goldman off our back.   Since your ES long call at 9.32am this morning, we have already accumulated 40.2% intraday profit on our 50:1 leveraged ES long.  Thanks also for sending Robo over to us, he seems to be blending in very well over here. 

DormRoom's picture

same situation in '08.  hedge fund had to buy up short positions, as everyone unwound them, Also, buying up assets to unwind the yen carry trade.  If you see rallies on heavily shorted positions on no news, it would indicate the quant models are breaking down; eye before the hurricane.

TruthInSunshine's picture



The Bernank says unto Primary Dealers:

Do not buy LULU or BAIDU yet, morons. You're cockblocking my Jackson Hole speech.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

You are right; Bernanke is such an attention whore.

TruthInSunshine's picture

What's interesting is that Chris Ciovacco (objective analyst) is pretty much stating that the only ones with a 'QE3 will happen bias' are commodity traders, and that even among those who lean towards QE3 (in roughly like form as in the past) happening, almost no one believes it will have anything remotely close to past effect:


Chris Ciovacco:  In 2009 and 2010, the Federal Reserve was able to reverse sharp declines in asset prices by pumping large amounts of printed money into the global financial system via quantitative easing. With the Fed’s 2011 Jackson Hole speech set to take place on August 26, we recently reviewed the ETF winners from QE2 looking to see if the market is anticipating the launch of QE3. Like the bearish similarities to 2008, our findings below are not encouraging for the stock market bulls. A recent review of QE2 winners indicates one of two things:

  1. The market does not believe the Fed will announce QE3 in the coming weeks or
  2. The market believes the deflationary forces in the economy are so great that QE3 would have little impact on asset prices.


In the summer of 2010, global financial markets were sitting on a fine bull/bear demarcation line as we outlined in this August 15 video. The Fed’s August 2010 Jackson Hole speech telegraphed the central bank’s intention of launching QE2. The impact on asset prices was dramatic in 2010. Even if QE3 is announced, the impact may be much more muted in 2011. Our 2011 Jackson Hole strategy is to review the Fed’s remarks with an open mind. We will also review the market’s response with an open mind, but as of this writing, our bias heading into the Fed’s annual summer conference will remain defensive and bearish.

QE2 Winners Not Forecasting QE3 Jackson Hole Miracle (SLV, GLD, TLT, SMH, XLE)

--ETF Daily News


Also, what's up with Bloomberg's reporting (nearly every day) on inflation rising again, as a threat to any alleged plans for QE3? Isn't Bloomturd clearly aligned with Wall Street Junkies?

Inflation May Embolden Foes of Fed Stimulus 


digitlman's picture

Dow swing of 100 pts so far this morning. 



Fuck em.

cossack55's picture

Welcome to the new norm. Hahahahahahah

CPL's picture

And there is the signal on level 2, RIS, VXX, etc.


Looks like it's time to fall like a rock.  Going to move into TZA in a second with a stop loss and itchy trigger finger.

slaughterer's picture

TZA on a day like this?  Please have second thoughts. 

Stumpy's picture

The call was made. Let's look how it will play out.

CPL's picture

And I'm done trading for the day...it can now all burn to the ground.


How did you like my call?  To nearly the second of the cross over into the gutter.  I am always correct, or correction, my HFT is always correct in terms of helping me identify the risks.

CPL's picture

I'm already out with a $5600 gain.


My trading is done for the day.  Just like 2008, 2009, 2010.


Only one I won't play is SRS.

fuu's picture

100 pt moves are so last month.

maxmad's picture

In case you didn't get it:  Sell the F'n Rally!

LMAO's picture

Nah, Short the fuckin' Rip

CPL's picture

Not yet...wait.  But if anyone feels like losing 80% of their stock money, please by all means BTFD.

TruthInSunshine's picture



You have the right mentality.

Color coming in; take your winnings; exit Casino before it all burns down; watch implosion from safe distance, winnings in hand.

Discipline FTW.

CPL's picture

Only reason I've survived trading for 16 years.

alexwest's picture

something tell me when (not if) QE3 will be announced it will bring different results from 2010 playbook..


SheepDog-One's picture

Dont dismiss the real possibility QE3 is NOT innevitable! 

But yes, diminishing returns will be a mother on this one if they try to do it, and anything less than diamond encrusted spectacular amount will be a big disapointment.

GS says QE of $350 billion or so? Thats nothing, a fart in a Cat 5 hurricane.

tmosley's picture

Refraining from QE3 and taking our medicine is the first step on the path to real recovery.  If the Fed and Co. decide to start making sound economic decisions, then great.  The point of all this Fed hate is that they haven't made good decisions for a VERY long time, and were/are unlikely to make good economic decisions in the future.

TradingJoe's picture

1. Options Expiration Pit traders will look for "victims"

2. JH is not the EVENT, Dumbama "speach" will be!

3. Short some more today!


Nice Weekend y'all!

UGrev's picture

Bets on half life?

thedrickster's picture

15-20 days?

Diminishing returns much.

UGrev's picture

I'll roll with that.. 

pendragon's picture

usd capitulation? i want some of what the euro bulls are smoking.

SheepDog-One's picture

Markets are obviously fine now, QE off.

razorthin's picture

No.  Technical bounce of the short-term double bottom.  Don't worry, it fails in a few days/weeks with the 25 dma firmly below the 50 dma, firmly below the 200 dma.  Move on.

Sophist Economicus's picture

Shorts running for their lives.   It was getting too easy, big boyz suckered the 'easy money' crowd.    It was smelling like this all morning.   The market isn't going to make it easy for anybody.   Ahhh, 2008 all over again.   

maxmad's picture

Shake out the weak short hands and then STFR!

SheepDog-One's picture

Something about 'magical DOW 11,000' mark....but BEN here he wants it both ways, cause chaos for QE, but not just yet or not TOO much just now'....dangerous game Ben tightrope walking across the grand canyon while juggling chainsaws.

CPL's picture

No such thing as a weak short hand, as one of the Tyler's pointed out, this is the old pain game based on how much hurt can you take:


So to be clear.  If you are shorting something you need "x" amount of capital to properly do it for any reasonable gain.  To get to that level you either have two places to start from.


1)  You had money given to you and the silver spoon is firmly lodged in one's mouth with a team of fuck nuts to manage it. (useless blue blood gene pool throwbacks)

2)  You've invested/traded for a couple of years and established a nice nest egg, discipline, tools, information and sharp sense of timing a trade (day trader, hedge fund, normal people, etc).


What is being illustrated are the options plus the much larger and more powerful shadow market of sector level ETF's.  Honestly how many people here honestly understand how to put in a short and manage it properly? 

Actually How many people understand how a short works?  <<---  I've had to explain this to investment bankers and CIO on how the process works....trust me, most people don't know the option is even there.  Get into explaining leveraged ETF/ETN's and the glassy stare takes over....most people still won't move beyond a buy low sell high mentality.


Options and ETF/ETN's do.  ETF's/ETN's especially, things are like well capitalized sugar cakes to a diabetic market.  BIG Rush, then big ass crash.  Watch this Sunday night, today is going to be people sitting with their thumbs in their asses, on Sunday night we'll see the Euro become the first horse processed at the glue factory.

RobotTrader's picture

Looks like the lows are in for now:

- EUR and AUD took off this morning before the market opened.

- Retailers like WMT, TGT, etc. were front running the turn, showing relative strength.

- U.S. banks like JPM and WFC could not take out last week's lows.

- Yesterday's opening p/c ratio was 1.71

- Today's opening p/c ratio was 1.59

- Yesterday we had another -1500 TICK and put/call pinned over 1.50 most of the day, with the highest p/c close in over a year

maxmad's picture

Yep... Look its time for you to go all in?  again...

SheepDog-One's picture

Hey Robo update us on your big 'Bears better pile in all long here at DOW 12,700 youre an idiot if you dont and Ive been posting this advice to blogs all over the place'...

Underwater a bit? Or is that paper trade now cancelled?

Spastica Rex's picture

If real fishing was this easy, I'd catch my limit every day. RT doesn't even change lures. 

slaughterer's picture

SD-1, you keep reminding Robo of his bullish DOW 12,700 call like people remind Cramer of his "buy Bear Stearns" call in 2008.  We all know it is a disguised way of showing your love for him.