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On The Difference Between Bonds, Equities, And Gold; "No-QE-Without-A-Crash" Or "Flow Vs. Stock"
Is the reality of different time-horizons and event discounting really starting to tell on markets? Equities have now sagged back lower while Treasury yields are accelerating lower and Gold higher. It seems that stocks fully comprehend that QE does not come without more pain in the short-term and are starting to price for that - while given the low/no cost of carry for Treasuries and Gold, the eventual reality of further financial repression and money-printing can be discounted in from longer maturities. It seems somewhat in-the-stars that the Fed will do more as they have convinced themselves that all is well with their extreme policies and short-term benefits outweigh ultimate costs, but this afternoon's disconnect between the QE-to-the-moon feeling in Gold and Treasuries and the QE-not-so-soon feeling in Stocks may well be a trend to watch as the only sure thing is when not if The Fed acts.
The key, we suspect, is the fast money in equities awaiting the 'flow' (which is not coming soon); relative to the slower money in Gold and Bonds knowing the 'stock' is coming eventually
Gold up, Stocks down, Treasury yields down, USD down in last couple hours post Europe...
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maybe OT , but ..... SUCK IT BERNANKE !!!
Has Tyler talked about Shamoon virus attack supposedly from Iran on Qatar Gas installations? That was on the FT, right?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9510811/Japan-plans-to-cut-state-spending-could-run-out-of-money-in-a-month.html
http://www.drudgereport.com/
http://blog.seculert.com/2012/08/shamoon-two-stage-targeted-attack.html
Thanks for the heads up.
anyone really believe that Iran is behind it? it may be painted to look that way... but this sort dirty trick can only come from the big gorilla and or its handler in the ME.
QE to the moon....just like Neil Armstrong.
QE will bring the moon to us.
QE. TO INFINITY AND BEYOND! Like Buzz Lightyear.
Just wait until gravity gets Spain back to earth ...
Actually, I suspect it is a far more profound move related to underlying confidence in the system writ large. We will see...
Tyler: You'd come to a different conclusion if you looked at the YTD performance of MOMOs (QE trade) versus gold. Your longer term correlation charts would remove the anchoring and availability biases from the analysis. The whole reason we've had this run is so that the big boys can sell from an arbitrarily high starting point, devoid of fundamentals or reality...
Would love to see a LT (say 1 years since the peak of the last Euro crisis) chart of gold, treasuries, value stocks, dividend stocks and growth (MOMO) stocks. I think you'd find it enlightening...
You're probably on the right track. What I'm seeing in the disconnect from Gold/Treasonries/Equitables doesn't make human sense. But to draw an analogy here, let's go back to 2008 when we had a run on gold/oil just before it all collapsed back down. Meanwhile, stocks were grinding lower the whole time.
"...but this afternoon's disconnect between the QE-to-the-moon feeling in Gold and Treasuries and the QE-not-so-soon feeling in Stocks may well be a trend to watch"
Why does there have to be a disconnect? Who says that stocks aren't pricing in QE? Frankly this market should be down by 50% already based on how corporate profitability (or lack thereof) looks right now for the next 12 months.
stock profitability compared with what? ZIRP?
Dumb ass robots ...looks like they cost me a turkey sandwich.
hi Ben ,need a chopper ?
No, as Heller said 'No QE until 'fiscal cliff' is resolved', clearly meaning between the lines neither is going to ever happen.
Just as, when Merkel says "no bonds before I die" .. we should read neither is ever going to happen?
SO what youre saying is you believe Clowngress is actually going to do anything about the 'fiscal cliff'? I wouldnt advocate holding my breath on it.....the only thing they know how to do is kick the can.
This is a game of chicken between a semi and a gasoline tanker. There are no winners in this game.
don't be "in the game" just get a tow truck, drive the wreckage to the scrap metal yard. always some way for someone to gain.
Short the semi transportation company and long oil would both win....
Dude you are seriously challenged.
... Or, until there is enough fiat money pushed over that "Cliff" so the fiat money pile will be large enough to cushion the impact once it comes crashing down... Silly Banksters, they just do not understand. Regardless of the ACME tools the Coyote (Bernanke) uses to avoid the inevitable impact, the Roadrunner (Market Collapse) will ALWAYS out-run him and will lose in the end.
It is sad that these idiots have turned themselves into cartoon analogies.
Crisis jerks forward to mid-September catalysts. Big moves out of that time zone.
Unless it falls in on its own weight. I will SPLK all over the screen if it happens this afternoon...and gold stays bid...
With the remarks by Bernie,I see no QE at, or after JHOLE.The Dallas Fed Fisher,has already screamed NO MAS.
Remember, do not chase the metals............................once these morons figure out it ain't a comin YET,the retracement begins.(IMHO)
gold, silver and tackle football: priceless.
I'm seriously thinking about gobbling-up some GRPN shares. Any opinions?
ROFLMAO!
Wait for a bargain! [sarc]
I know it looks tasty here but... Well, go ahead but chase it with a tall glass of Metimucil.
Benny Bernanke and the Fed said they will keep printing/devaluing the US dollar.
The Federal Reserve will be the only buyer of US debt. How long can that go on for?
Soon people will realize the US is in default, by the mere fact of printing and nobody buying US debt.
When the house of cards collapses overseas banksters will pickup anything for a fraction.
"overseas banksters will pickup anything for a fraction"
Better find a solvent one first. Say it with me, "credit default swap".
'Stocks down'? I mean if youre going to say stocks are down should they at least be showing red on the day instead of up about +.5% or so?
So the Moron, dethroned, ChairSatan himself, won't QE because the mechanism to be used to transfer the wealth of a country to his banker friends will cause damage to the Totus, or, Pig Will, the algos have defeated the "Gold bedamned suck it Bernanke," because the only thing he can do is raise markets.
Fuck you algos. Eat your banker brethren. And, fuck you Bernanke too.
<-- Over $1690 today
<-- Under $1690 today
1% rule? lol.
We are well beyond 1% already today.
Just pointing out that the notion of capping gains is, shall we say, less than plausible.
I'm looking forward to the day when +1% = +$100.
<shiny still
<shiny no more
<Glinting from the bottom of the lake
And the asia session on monday will bring it back down to 1640 at least.
$50+ fall by Monday, gotcha.
Tyler,
You are very smart, but with regard to your recent past comments on QE3, it would be best for yourself if you would stop digging a deeper hole with your interpretation/spin, as your credibility is being really damaged here.
You know and I know that if the ISM and payrolls data next week show the same level of past strength or worse (ISM sub-50 or payrolls sub-100K), then QE3 will be announced on Sept. 13th. Gold is surging based on the shorts covering in advance of the Tuesday ISM data (who the hell would want to be short gold going into that?). It is now hair-trigger sensitive to any economic data going forward (given that the bar has been effectively lowered for QE3---a recession is NOT required for it).
All the best,
Bernard
7 posts in 97 weeks, and this is your only one in 2012. Thanks for chiming in!
Oh really, 1 little fudged govt number will now greenlight the QE? Horse shit.
Bernard, I am amazed at the fact that the gringos give so much credit to activity data from the private sector. In Latin America, if we know our government has more than a trillion/yr deficit and the governor of the central bank tells us he's looking at unemployment data to decide whether or not to monetize the so said deficit, we would laugh mercilessly at him. How the fuck is it possible that in the developed world people still believe in fairy tales? Anyway, was lucky and bot gold at $1,649/oz, on algorithmic weakness...
offtopic but I think important:
SLOVENIAN PM JANSA SAYS SLOVENIA IS GOING TO DEFAULT IN SEVERAL WEEKS
The Slovenian government can possibly pay their bills only a few weeks. This Prime Minister Janez Jansa conceded in an interview with Internet portal siol.net
"In October we threatened with insolvency if we do not manage to sell bonds," said Jansa. Already, Slovenia could no longer finance on the capital market, said the conservative politicians. The borrowing was "virtually impossible".
http://www.tagesschau.sf.tv/Nachrichten/Archiv/2012/08/31/International/...
the last 10 minutes of trading today should be fun...
Eastwood bounce in Dementia stocks. Plus Clint closed his FB account after all the kidding. FB down 5%.
Eastwood bounce in Dementia stocks
Dementia?, the man was hysterical, and still starring damn good movies and Directing.
Everthing he said had a meaning, the empty chair(suit,no results worthwhile from O),and the Teleprompter in front of the chair.
Classic
Plus he did all of it off the cuff.............the guy is still THE man.
Wonder how well you handle that kind of crowd, and write nothing down at 82.
Obozo isn't a drop of sweat of his nutsack.
Character matters.
Reposting:
Mark my words:
NO COCAINATED EASING UNTIL WTI CRUDE OIL AT $60 .......AT LEAST OR BRENT CRUDE AT $75 .......AT LEAST.
All Benny and Jon want to do is: SAVE PRIMARY DEALERS, nothing else. They are both trying to lure INSTITUTIONAL SUCKERS, since they already sucked all retail money.
That's it. They want to sucker hedge funds into buying stocks from Primary Dealers and let hedge funds collapse. Ain't gona happen.
They will try, and try and try and try and try...........................but hedge funds have smartened up. They have not made any money recently as Zerohedge has made that plainly clear.
NO MORE SUCKERS, RETAIL OR INSTITUTIONAL, PERIOD. They are getting more and more desperate.
yup. you did call it!! very vividly remember. and cnbs is their fuckin piece of shit lap dog to help.
Let's wait till R2D2 does the opening "boing" on Wall Street.
Should see some serious short covering into close today taking it much higher. Everyone has left the building and the machines that were programmed for quick scalps short are all now covering.
say what........http://i.imgur.com/J2o70.jpg
all will be well....gentle ben the magician and his lackey the food stamp and empty suit prez have all in order.....or are you racist?
In 1929, everybody and their dog was invested in the stock market. When it crashed, most people lost everything they had.
Today, if the stock market crashed, I have to imagine that only a dozen or so firms would lose their capital.
Well dont foget what the 'stock market' is mostly comprised of today, 401K's and pensions.
Give it 5 maybe 6 yrs and there will be no such thing as a stock market with retail or brokers, basically no human will place trades.
Why would a legit company even think about going public now if they cannot get at least 3x above sector pe's?
Time the lift is off, the stock would be at a regular pe, hopefully long enough to sell all your shares.
All this shit could be fixed with a captcha code.
How fucking retarded do you have to be to work at the SEC?
Do they give you a helmet and and a juice box when you start?
Ben is going to have to QE III and on and on and on....for people to pay for food.....looks like commodities are going up quite well....the average joe will not be able to buy gas or food in the future.....so QE it baby.....SNAP to the moon...GAS SNAP too
Youre saying Bernank is just reacting to things, figuring out ways so people (about 50% of americans) can buy food? Nah theyre just monetizing the debt thats all. Basically done with that too so I'd watch out for the unexpected real soon and forget pricing in the future.
he cant buy gas today being the computers ramped crude to near 98 on nothing at all. Good thing the margin hiker in chief got a good look at those speculators. Hello joe six pack. how ya like that big dildo up your ass for labor day weekend? Best always sucka. Signed Wall street
Bernanke is brilliant. They essentially have the market at a Mexican standoff and everyones pissed. The shorts (like me) are mad cause dammit we want our crash so we can have out money now. The longs are pissed because....well they spent all this money to drive up prices and they want their money NOW. Say what you want, I certainly dont agree with his policies. You have to admit, the man has us standing around like a bunch idiots....and we aren't going anywhere.
I don't agree, I don't know who others think about that but I think it's kind of too much heroism to call him "brilliant".
My brilliant move is to be short on money and long on patience.
Your brilliant plan is the same as my brilliant plan, and yet here we sit. His plan his to sucker in the holdout retail investor. This has never been about helping people. He could have given 5T bucks to the people and everyone could have paid their mortgage and the money would still have landed in the banks. No, his plan is to get ALL the money back to the banks and leave us holding the bag and its working. And we are sitting here taking it.
I wouldnt exactly call biflationary stagflation a brilliant plan.
See any similarities: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aboZctrHfK8
I do, but then I think I see dead people too.
Somehow the dollar doesn't like not being devaluated? LOL?
Frontrunning euro run?
Todays REAL message from Jackson.. "SHORT BAN STILL IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE".. signed... ben
Everything is ripping to the upside - Stocks, Bonds, Gold - IT A PRINTFEST PARTY!!!!
The market is rising because of ETFs, right?
Managers forced to buy stocks because they're in an index someone is purchasing...
I mean, who can honestly believe Walmart, MO, or T are even average values right now. Question is: how does this crash? Lowered earning estimates doesn't seem to dissuade the market.
Takin bets on when the next CME margin hike comes
Why did gold do so much better than everything else???