Disappointing Richmond Fed And New Home Sales Seal The Recessionary Deal
And so the double dip confirmation resumes, with the Richmond Fed printing at -10, the lowest since June 2009, well below consensus of -5, a collapse from June's -1, and the lowest since June 2009. From the report: "In August, the seasonally adjusted composite index of manufacturing activity — our broadest measure of manufacturing — declined nine points to -10 from July's reading of -1. Among the index's components, shipments lost sixteen points to -17, and new orders dropped six points to finish at -11, while the jobs index inched down three points to 1." And more: "Other indicators also suggested additional softening. The index for capacity utilization declined eight points to -14 and the backlogs of orders fell seven points to end at -25. Additionally, the delivery times index moved down twelve points to end at -4, while our gauges for inventories were virtually unchanged in August. The finished goods inventory index held steady at 17 in August, while the raw materials inventories index added one point to finish at 19." And the final nail in the economic coffin was New Home Sales which came at 298K, down from 312K upward revised prior, and missing the consensus of 310k: the lowest in 5 months. "Housing data over the past three months indicates that there is little appetite in the consumer sector to take on the risk of purchasing a home at a time when prices are likely to decline further,’’ says Bloomberg economist Joseph Brusuelas. As Bank Of America (RIP) said yesterday, one false word out of Beranke on Friday, and we will see what could possibly be the most epic market crash ever. For those wondering why stocks surged on this horrible news: look no further than the central planners in the Marriner Eccles building who are now expected to do "the right thing" for stocks.
Richmond Fed:
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Apparently these numbers are very bulllish for equities.
I know right... fricking ridiculous... My guess is its 'Priced In'.... bad news... "priced in".... global war "priced in"... 2012 mayan prophecy "priced in"...
Basically "priced in" is the markets "I plead the 5th!" lol
What is getting priced in is QE3.
There are gonna be some very blue balls if Bernanke doesn't roll out QE 3+ on Friday.
Just sayin'
(Not that I would know anything about that.)
Don't worry. If it is not announced on Friday, it will be announced by Asia open on Sunday when markets gap down 10+%.
PMS 287 Blue? Or Pantone Reflex Blue ??
Pantone needs better descriptors...like "Oh my God it hurts, baby, please" Blue.
The most interesting colors are yet to come.
Economy is in a depression.
Real UE is 20%+
GDP is probably running at -4% to -5% YoY rate (soon to be running at -7%+).
Housing sales are at an ALL TIME LOW with this 'recovery' melting down like Fukushima:
The banking-financial and equity markets are about to enter a WORSE crisis than what we saw in 2008.
And the developed nations are trying to dig themselves out of a very deep hole by pissing upwardly (with China not knowing what to do in the face of the crises they face).
It's all about jobs, wages and the middle class, and ObaMao, Jeetner, Bernankstain and CONgress can't do anything about J-O-B-S when the multinationals own the globe (because they, with their european counterparts, gave the multinationals the keys to the joint).
Do they fall on the announcement?
QE to infinity and beyond Bitchez!
and to top it all off, the "priced in" has yet to be priced in, so expect the bulls to be out in force??? :|
These numbers are very bullish for future monetization.
No, they are just sure that QE is coming on Friday.
looks like it for sure.
this bad house news was the best news they could dream of to assure the comming QE launch.
When does Obama come back from his vacation?
but , if equities keep going up... then is QE3 needed???
It's like the old "Star Trek" sure-fire method for defeating a computer. "This statement is a lie" will cause an infinite contradictory loop, causing computer circuits to over-heat.
The economy is down --> QE3 --> anticipatory increase in stocks --> QE3 not needed --> stocks go down --> We need QE3 --> anticipatory increase in stocks --> QE 3 not needed --> stocks go down --> etc.
Hmmm, perhaps we have found a way to defeat HFTs.
Terrible data. That must be the reason for the 100+ spike in the DJIA. The mindless bots are anticipating QE3 to the rescue.
100% FUBAR!
Markets have priced in QE3 at least 10 times over since January on every piece of horrible news....this is just ridiculous.
JH QE event will fall FAR short of these pie in the sky expectations of these insane market bakers.
But GO AHEAD Ben! Throw QE3 in! LOVE to see the dollar totaly collapse and gold get a 20% add-on!
Everyone forget we just got downgraded over insane debt and insane fiscal policy?
Rock on, lunatics....rock on!
Yup they are. And Bernanke will deliver.
Somebody needs to tell the stock market, which seems to be pricing in a wonderful recovery. Or more printing.
The economy in general no longer matters to Wall Street. Only more printing.
Weird reaction in the market, indeed...
Stock market may be pricing in more printing, but gold is not acting similarly right now. Did gold price QE3 in already earlier or is FED bying stocks?
The Repression of The Bernank, bitchez!
Ben Bernank & Timmmmay Geeeeithner gave trillions to the Wall Street Elite and all we got was a looming Economic Depression.
Give them trillions more, The Bernank! Central planning FTMFL!!!
WHAT IF B . BERNANKE GOES POSTAL,, ERRRRRRRR, GOES S&P ON MARKET and
actually will say : GUYS, YOU'RE ON YOU OWN..
WHAT WOULD MAKE A PERFECT WEEKEND..
alx
YEP! I think everyone that has QE3 trillions safely baked in and ready for equity liftoff are about as silly as Robotrader with his calls to get all in at DOW 12,700 for debt ceiling passage market euphoria!
Ben of Friday...'Boys...Yer on yer own'.
And yet the headlines read, "Wall Street Surges On Positive Economic Data"
“Both consumers and professionals are vaccinated against bad housing news,” said Sandy Lincoln, chief market strategist at BMO Asset Management U.S"
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-extend-gains-into-second-day-...
QE3 got upped to 800billion in today's morning session at Jackson Hole. The mood was somber.
800 billion? Huge dissapointment. QE3 would have to top at least $2 trillion to impress anyone at all.
Treasonous if they do another QE - let the markets work!!!!
Perry, Bachmann, and all the rest do not matter--the Fed needs to stabilize markets and fulfil its dual mandate. QE3. Hold on to your gold.
QE3 of what though? Since 'QE3' has been priced in on every bit of bad news since January and sub-DOW 10K, I'd say QE3 has to be at least around $2.5 trillion to impress anyone at all.
I bet there is no QE, buy buying a bunch more silver today.
seems like stupidity to me
You guys beat me to it. These markets are laughable at this point. Open 200 points higher, throw out a few news bait pieces before the market opens to try to get a few suckers in. Does not work,(No one trusts the MMM anymore) then everyone storms to the exits. LOL
the bernank hasn't missed a shipment yet.
<--- QE3 Friday
<--- MArket CRASH Friday
Come on peeps lets all say on Friday my vote right here on Tues predicted this shit!
DOCH QE3.
TD let's get a track record going of 0hedge member's ability to predict heinous market events ;)
PS the split on our little mini-poll is interesting, to say the least. 3 to 1 says market crash Friday Jesus!
Oh well.......
Buy to open the Aug 26th SPY 110 and 108 puts if you want. Turn on your Bloomie: the volume is surging right now. Today is obviously discount day for leveraged shorts who do not think QE3 comes on Friday. I am buying as well, for hedge purposes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gd1_JYzVisg
What a POS video. So sharia law isn't killing innocent women and children? What stupid propoganda you posted. Learn history and realize these are the people wanting to destroy America and Isreal.
Egypt and Lybia is being taken over my muslim terrorist and sharia law. http://www.theblaze.com/stories/egyptian-protesters-outside-israeli-emba...
You sure do believe a lot of propaganda. Have you ever wondered why it is a relatively recent development in history where muslims want to kill us? How many people have we killed in the name of democracy? How many muslim countries are we occupying?
Gee, why might they want to destroy Israel? I mean, isn't Israel a peaceful country that gets along with its neighbors? Have they committed war crimes that might inspire this kind of hatred among Muslims or something?
Reap what you've sown.
Apparently, this is bullish. I think I'll run and buy up 10,000 shares of BAC.
The teleprompter says it's your patriotic duty.
Wait until Friday.
You will be able to pick up all you want from the pink sheets.
Headline:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Derek Kravitz, AP Real Estate Writer, On Tuesday August 23, 2011, 10:14 am
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of people who bought new homes fell for the fourth straight month in July, putting sales on track to finish this year as the worst on records dating back half a century.
...
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
How big will QE3 be???
That depends of your definition of big.
Beelzebernanke's idea of big is in the trillions.....
QE3 wont happen....ZIRP for extended period, and bond maintenance program. No free gift of Hefty bags filled with crack rocks for Wall St. Sorry bulls.
They are certainly trying to push it above 11,000.
I don't see how the dollar won't crash if QE3 is announced.
Dollar would crash totaly. TARP and QE1 had plenty of wiggle room, USD 90...another QE and USD is going into the mid 60's.
while in the gulag we call amerika, at times it is necessary to consult those who have come and gone before. I wonder what Rudyard would think of this financial fiasco......
Stranger
by Rudyard Kipling
The Stranger within my gate,
He may be true or kind,
But he does not talk my talk--
I cannot feel his mind.
I see the face and the eyes and the mouth,
But not the soul behind.
The men of my own stock,
They may do ill or well,
But they tell the lies I am wanted to,
They are used to the lies I tell;
And we do not need interpreters
When we go to buy or sell.
The Stranger within my gates,
He may be evil or good,
But I cannot tell what powers control--
What reasons sway his mood;
Nor when the Gods of his far-off land
Shall repossess his blood.
The men of my own stock,
Bitter bad they may be,
But, at least, they hear the things I hear,
And see the things I see;
And whatever I think of them and their likes
They think of the likes of me.
This was my father's belief
And this is also mine:
Let the corn be all one sheaf--
And the grapes be all one vine,
Ere our children's teeth are set on edge
By bitter bread and wine.
Your posts are the worst
Nevermind.
Irene will dominate the news until Labor Day weekend. Pay no attention to the economy or geopolitics.
I know. What is going on with that? Here in NC it has just become the news. Half hour blocks discussing the possibility of it hitting on Saturday on the radio.
Seemed a bit too hyped for me, especially this early.
pods
I'm sure giving a few trillion $ more to insolvent mega-banks will right the economy.
Think BAC is trying to pressure Ben Shalom into carrying their water?
As Bank Of America (RIP) said yesterday, one false word out of Beranke on Friday, and we will see what could possibly be the most epic market crash ever.
Right, and remember Bernanks FOMC words from a couple weeks ago, VERY non-QE'ish!
Now I know how the spoof E-Trade baby feels.
For the love of God, push SPY down to the mid bol by 11!
So which SPY w put did you buy at open?
1090, but at 10:01, not the open
Oh, well, good luck with that.
Someone forgot to tell the algos.
Market is ROCKIN' BABY! Just every f'ing day some ridiculous and temporary upward pressure under all conditions!!!
It's Ben-tastic!!!
The algos are in the FED building. Haven't zero hedge people figured this out yet?
Enjoy while it lasts it wont be long.
Relax. The market is in a large downward trend, but there will be fervent rallies, as hope doesn't die easily. As has been said a trillion times, QE3 is being priced in on HOPE. But reality will once again replace hope and we'll have some more 5% down days.
Relax, be in a position to ride it down, and enjoy the show.
I am firmly in the End the Fed spectrum. But when I was first learning about it and reading these articles, I often looked to people here who I believed to have superior knowledge of the situation. And that helped me sort through the crap at times. But the "bitchez" routine that comes from even the most knowledgeable people cloud the issues (and quite frankly is getting old).
These articles are a great way to open some people's eyes. But they also need coherent confirmations and intelligent additions from the knowedgeable ones here.
Just my humble opinion...sorry to go off track.
You are entirely correct: we are letting you down. We will try harder in the future.
Only 110% will do...
Read the Creature from Jekyll Island. That will give you some great insight int the fed.
Your post would have been perfect if you had just ended it with "bitchez!"
I wonder how muchh $ the fed has made from importing cocaine this year
"one false word out of Beranke on Friday, and we will see what could possibly be the most epic market crash ever"
Precisely why the Bernank re-uses the same verbiage.
Low interest to eternity...
Funnel newly printed loot to the JPM...
Focus on the Barama re-election...
blahblahblah
Bad news is bullish because the worse things get the bigger the expectation of free crack.
Good news is bullish as long as it means that there will still be free crack.
Any talk of not getting free crack is nonsense because why wouldn't there be free crack.
ADR imagine the tantrum when Ben does not back up a semi truck full of pallets of free crack rocks, but instead hands out rehab center check in cards on Friday!
One more time for the slow ones :)))
THERE WONT BE ANY QE3 OR ANYHTING ELSE ALIKE ON FRIDAY, REASONS ARE WELL KNOWN AMONG ZH ERS AND OTHER EDUCATED INDIVIDUALS!
Have the balls for once and go short MASSIVELY!
Odumba is going to "announce somenting" after labour day! plenty of time to close shorts at epic gains and re route to longs at again epic lows :))!
This is the last time we can do this, when it's all over there won't be any more of these sweet Opportunities to turn even more fiat into Physical!
Gees get a grip already!
No way in hell would I short this market ahead of Friday. Even if all signs point to no QE3 there is still a chance The Bernank could announce $100 Trillion QE3 Xtreme ripping my face off so hard it would hurt all the way up to DOW 1,000,000.
Suit yourself!
Or not announce or possibly even deny it, while at the same time dumping helicopter loads into the market... I'm not sure why there needs to be some type of official announcement...
The "short Friday into no QE3 announcement trade" is very crowded. Look at the short interest via P/C ratio on SPY w options and other short vehicles. You really want us all to crawl into that bear motel?
Your feelings are exactly why I will be all in short by friday. If I am wrong I will take a solid hit in the crotch. If I am right however there will be a small fortune ahead. QE3 news has a much better r/r on the short side.
TradingJoe I agree totaly! Ben is NOT going to drops Hefty bags full of free rocks for this crackhead market! Its going to be an epic cornholing!
I'm confused??.... CNBC headlines said no recession ahead? what a joke they are!
This market has only three sectors:
Economy Sensitive, Interest Sensitive and Inflation Sensitive.
Why even bother with the first two.
Any biped with a few brain cells that are firing who is walking around these days without a diaper on is playing a dangerous game, and is clearly delusional. We at Team Depends realized long ago, on a road-trip the details of which can not be legally discussed here, that it is sometimes necessary to have protection even though you are an adult. Well, those sometimes are alltimes now. So we decided to go all in with shares of Kimberly-Clark, the manufacturer of Depends. They also make toilet paper. I/we mean, you can't wipe your bunghole with gold, can you?
Team Depends, best laugh I got all morning. Now you owe me a new pair of khakis.
Thanks, friend. We sincerely hope your catastrophe has opened your eyes, and served as a wake up call for others.
This is depressing. Am I in an asylum? Is this real? Bad news = markets up? . . . I forgot how the world works. Bad news is good because it means a handout is coming.
I reiterate, "depressing" in every sense of the word.