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Do You Believe In ISM Miracles? Goldman Doesn't

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Given the better-than-expected ISM print earlier, one could be forgiven for believing that the US is just fine thank you very much. Our earlier discussion of the dispersion in the ISM sub-indices, and yesterday's discussion of the PMI 'catch-up' nature of the very recent pre-holiday seasonal orders given the unusual slump in October may weaken the decoupling view but strategists will extrapolate trends as normal. Whether you believe in tooth-fairies or decoupling, Goldman's Global Leading Indicator continues to accelerate downward and moved into negative territory for the first time since August 2009. Amid a broad deterioration in components their outlook for global growth remains soft.

 

Spot the odd-one-out. The export miracle remains in place but how much longer can we build it and hope they come?

Goldman Sachs: November GLI Weak

Headline Negative And Momentum Flat. Our November Final GLI headline came in at - .3%yoy, down from last month’s revised reading of 0.6%yoy. Monthly momentum rose slightly to -0.29%mom from October’s revised reading of -0.30%mom. Momentum has remained stuck in negative territory for eight months, and the Final reading with the full set of components shows a much smaller improvement than signalled by the Advanced report. Headline continues to accelerate downward and moved into negative territory for the first time since August 2009. We will be watching closely for more convincing signs of improvement in momentum.

 

 

 

Broad Deterioration in Components. Declines in six components were partially offset by no change in one and improvements in the other three, pushing momentum up (less negative) a touch in November. The S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index® fell for the fourth consecutive month, while the TWI Aggregate fell to its lowest value since October last year. Our Global New Orders Less Inventories (NOIN) Aggregate fell back again after a short-lived upturn last month. Our Manufacturing Aggregate, Korean Exports and the Baltic Dry Index rounded out the batch of deteriorating components. On the other hand, our Global PMI Aggregate was flat in November, as weakness in the Euro Area and China were offset by a strong US ISM report. Our Consumer Confidence Aggregate rebounded, and US Initial Claims trended down for the second consecutive month. The Japan Inventory/Sales Ratio also improved slightly in November.

 

 

 

Outlook for Industrial Growth Remains Soft. The November Final reading of the GLI still shows the persistent weakness that has characterised the global industrial cycle for most of 2011. Headline has been falling for nearly a year and turned negative this month, and momentum remains firmly stuck in negative territory. Both headline and momentum are now at levels rarely seen outside recessions. The current impasse in momentum reflects, to some extent, the balance between a run of stronger than-expected US data and a marked deterioration in European indicators. Continued pressure from the European sovereign situation makes the future path of the GLI more uncertain, so we will be watching closely for any clear signal of marginal improvement or renewed deterioration in the months ahead.

 

Do you believe in decoupling miracles?

(h/t John Lohman)

 

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Thu, 12/01/2011 - 13:50 | 1935475 trav7777
trav7777's picture

stop harshing my mellow, bitchez

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 13:52 | 1935482 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

If Goldman doesn't believe, shouldn't we?

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 13:55 | 1935498 Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

THESE DATA EITHER LAGGING, FAKED OR UNFOUNDED AND MANIPULATED LIKE GOLD AND SILVER PRICES MANIPULATION BY JP MORGAN AND HSBC AMERICAS...THE CONSPIRACY THEORY OF US AGAINST EUROPE IS MORE REAL WITH THE PASS OF THE DAYS. WHAT IT IS AUSTOISHING IS THAT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IN THE US AS WELL AS ITS ECONOMICS, AND SOCIOECONOMICS ARE FAR WORST THAN THOSE OF EURO. WHAT THE US AND IN PARTICULAR US BANKS ARE BEEN COORDINATING A MASSIVE SQUEEZE ON EUROPEAN BANKS NEAR TO THE BRINK OF A COLLAPSE WITH THE PURPOSE OF BENEFITING AT EXPENSE OF THE WEAKEST. TRUST ME AT THE END THE EURO AND EU WILL SURVIVE AND THE POWERS OF THE US AND CONTROL OVER THE WORLD WILL DIMINISH AND DISSAPPEAR WITH THE INTEGRATION OF EU AND CHINA FIGHTING TOGETHER THE US.....COME JUNE-JULY 2012 AND YOU WILL SEE THAT HAPPENING

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 14:11 | 1935572 achmachat
achmachat's picture

Dude! Seriously... No need to scream like this.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 14:32 | 1935641 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

TRUST ME...

Why?   You don't even know how to use your Caps Lock key...

 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 14:33 | 1935642 johnu78
johnu78's picture

The only thing Goldman believes in is ripping people off!

 

-John
http://johnu78.blogspot.com/2011/11/how-to-get-started-in-amateur-radio.html

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 16:12 | 1936049 J 457
J 457's picture

"Integration of EU and China fighting together the US."

I'd say better chance of US and China fighting together, which has about zero possibility.

 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 13:56 | 1935505 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Is Michael Feroli on this team?  If not, the results are not worth consideraton.  /sarc.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 13:58 | 1935517 Perpetual Burn
Perpetual Burn's picture

Fuck Goldman

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 13:58 | 1935518 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Seriously, most leading indicators and respected economists are anticipating a global recession next year.  When do we get our first negative GDP print in the EZ?   

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 14:13 | 1935584 JJSF
JJSF's picture

GDP historically follows ISM's PMI....  But yeah, this one seems wierd..

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 14:15 | 1935589 midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

It must be tough for Goldie to watch themselves become more irrelevant with each passing day.

Fri, 12/02/2011 - 01:20 | 1937407 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

and judging from their foreign currency trading losses, insolvent. 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 14:27 | 1935625 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

nice tight shot group, there!

is the risk-0n over?  so soon? 

the hang seng went ^+1,000+^ yesterday!  WHEEEE!

of course market indices go up or down 4-5% per day!  it's the "new abnormal"!!!

maybe a few times a month;  maybe just once;  or twice

ya got a problem w. that?  huh? 

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 14:29 | 1935631 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Amerikkans will believe anything, except for what they can see with their own eyes.

Santa Claus. God. Heaven. The Tooth Fairy, yes, many of us believe well into our early teens. The need to build sports stadiums with public dollars, because - GASP! - our local economies might suffer if we don't give millionaire athletes and billionaire owners an all-but-free public-subsidized playpen. A "recovery" based on phony statistics and Central Bank counterfeiting schemes.

Amerikkkans are easy to dupe. Just add a pinch of BS, and voila! Instant idiocy.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 14:39 | 1935667 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

I think you mean to say natives. Immigrants do all the hard work and know what is going on. The stupid fat lazy pig that the average American has grown into means the time for slaughter is near. Bacon anyone?

And don't give me that B.S. about leaving if I don't like it here. Go where? I guess I could take my honest productive work ethic somewhere else. Hope you fat , sick , and nearly dead pigs can keep finding idiots to wipe your asses for paper tickets and phony promises. If that doesn't work Americans will kill to keep their SUVs, slave labor, Oreos, Walmart, and delusions of God and other chimerical fantastical explanations so they don't have to accept what they are: brutish ugly thugs.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 15:09 | 1935782 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

I do agree.

And to whoever junked that comment, I suppose you have an equally well-thought out reply just waiting to be unleashed.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 14:30 | 1935634 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

What is up is down and down is up.

Hyperbolic moves to continue until the criminal enterprises we call banks are forced into bankruptcy.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 14:45 | 1935697 adr
adr's picture

You know that couple hundred billion worth of product the world exports that never gets imported? Perhaps that is how we get the USA up in that lonely corner. Could the US government be buying exports through the back door to pump up economic statistics making the USA look better than it actually is?

My Magic 8 Ball says yes.

Look at the figures, a couple hundred billion is perfect to fake the US export numbers. Bridges to nowhere have company with products to nowhere!!!!

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 15:29 | 1935891 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

Maybe we are exporting the products to Alaska because Palin can see Russia from there and it is far enough away to count as an export.

Thu, 12/01/2011 - 16:09 | 1936038 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Hey, if we're all doing so great.....then there's no need for QE3 in our future. Markets tanking in 3....2....oh....sorry.....must have nodded off.  The dream was really awesome though.

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