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Does The Gold "Support Channel" Mean The Drop Is Over?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With the inevitable chatter of further easing from the ECB and the 'Fed must act soon surely' to monetize Facebook shares, this chart via UBS shows the longer-term support channel suggesting, at least for those who follow technical analysis, that gold's dip may be over...

 

Chart: UBS

 

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Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:49 | 2451954 jomama
jomama's picture

it ain't over until Merkel sings, bitchez.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:52 | 2451982 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

I'm looking to drop into Mandy's blouse

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:54 | 2451991 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

As long as the problems persist in Europe, gold will find it hard to rally.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:58 | 2452013 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Yes, because all the panicky bank-runners will convert every Euro/drachma they can milk out of the ATM into US Dollars.  But that just coils the spring a little tighter in my view...

Wait. Stack. Prevail.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:03 | 2452031 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Agreed, this weekend I caught an STD - as I continue to Stack The Dips!

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:16 | 2452582 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

If only it was airborn contagious. Sheeple might catch it.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 17:40 | 2452919 He_Who Carried ...
He_Who Carried The Sun's picture

Its over when its over.

Did you notice, FB and Gold

currently move in the same direction.... :-))

Its all "Zucked".

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 18:45 | 2453119 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Are the governments spewing money again?

Oh no but some magic line on a chart will be buying?

 

 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 23:32 | 2453852 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Did they ever stop?

Guess I should go and buy some more eh...

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 00:02 | 2453914 Chief_Illiniwek
Chief_Illiniwek's picture

I recommend - for the sake of your loved ones - that you treat your STD immediately.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:00 | 2452023 kito
kito's picture

only if there is another lsap by the fed, and ONLY IF, will gold break 2000. there is no other way. bernanke is handling this beautifully. stocks have stayed levitated, bond yields are at historic lows, commodity deflation has been chipping away at everything not nailed down. he has no need to do anything, and wont, until at least after obama is re-elected. so dont count on gold wandering too far north. not very likely.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:17 | 2452172 oc
oc's picture

yeah Kito because gold wasn't in a bull market for eight years prior to QE. QE is the only reason the gold price has risen.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:22 | 2452210 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

kito?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:45 | 2452394 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Don't confuse him with any facts. He's a flat earth deflationist who doesnt understand PM's at all.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:20 | 2452596 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

You never hear of a kito ostrich?

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 05:34 | 2454205 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

That's when you extricate your head from your arse and bury it in the ground isn't it?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 19:28 | 2453266 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

The bond market was in a 30yr bull market so I guess by same logic QE is not the only reason bond prices spiked?

Soon to be down year over year- how long will the delusional fanatic hang in there?

How long will the denial that QE is what spiked everything except wages and homes sink the fuck into the donkeyhumans?

 

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 00:57 | 2453996 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

It won't. So much debt has been created that there is not enough cash in the system to liquidate all the sellers at par. That means either capital writedowns or more money printing. Capital writedowns on sovereign debt are the death knell for an economy. The damage has already been done, just as it was in Weimar Germany throughout the first World War though the collapse didn't occur until nearly eight years later.

The Germans tried to not print in 1919 but since so much cash had already been printed and prices had already risen by a multiple of seventeen, not printing was by then not an option for your average worker. Does Greece ring any bells here? Either print, or collapse, and then collapse. The damage has already been done. Either way it will make no difference whatsoever to the outcome for gold and general prices of foodstuffs, which will inevitably go higher. A lot higher.

Either way.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:31 | 2452285 HomerToeclipper
HomerToeclipper's picture

Paralysis by analysis....makes me wonder: Gates open a few years back on Gold, commodities and equities to let in the suckers. add some drama to insert some volatility and interest. Set the traps to lock people in and then viola!...pull the rug out of everything simutaneously.  Bankers win again!

Can it be that simple?

 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 17:43 | 2452927 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

How can they pull the rug out from under me if I still have my stack? I still have a job and income...if they pull the rug out, my stack will get bigger!!

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 20:49 | 2453505 hamurobby
hamurobby's picture

Only if our income exceeds our needs, It may get to the point we have no more extra income, and I believe that it is their goal.

 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:13 | 2452564 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

This is a silly chart of derivative gold.   It's price doesn't indicate gold's true scarcity.   The gift is that the physical price is driven off the derivative.

 

Gold is aritifcally low, interest rates are artificailly low and derivative values are, for the most part, artificially high.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:46 | 2452710 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

+1

And we have a winner!

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 17:32 | 2452754 JeffB
JeffB's picture

kito: "bernanke is handling this beautifully"

That really depends upon one's goals and time frames.

If Bernanke's raison d'être is propping up the house of cards well enough to fool enough people long enough to get O'Bama reelected, then I suppose you might have a point.

That isn't exactly the benchmark I'd use for "handling this beautifully", however.

To each his own, I suppose.

 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:40 | 2452682 geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

if DXY rallies back to it's 2010 level, gold could be 1200 an oz.  with the euro breaking and the yen starting to slip in what looks like a potential big fall ahead, the dollar could get back to the levels it was at 2 years ago.  this would probably smack the DJIA pretty well, along with most commodities including gold.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 17:45 | 2452932 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Cheap OTM FAZ calls will protect my stack...

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 21:58 | 2453685 thorgodofthunder
thorgodofthunder's picture

Believe I called 1000/oz as soon as it hit 1800. 

Funny, the same zuckers who bought the now mellow yellow metal at 1800 probably bought fraudbook at 100 billion.  Most of you fools spending your beer money on souveneer shop nuggets that probably can only be cashed in for 20% fees.  Morons most of you.

There's a zucker born every minute I guess!

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 23:53 | 2453891 prole
prole's picture

How right you are thunder-- Gold, currency of the Gods, The premier money/precious metal from King Tuts time, to Jesus, the Spanish Armada until now, imagine all those suckers, what a bunch of saps!

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:49 | 2451955 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

monetize Facebook shares, nice.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:49 | 2451956 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Technically this is about as useful as any analcysts.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:49 | 2451957 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Raid on in full force this arvo. JPM surging. Shocking.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:23 | 2452222 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Dead cat bounce!

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 17:07 | 2452794 saturn
saturn's picture

Dead "dog" bounce this time around..

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:49 | 2451958 j12t
j12t's picture

What's the CAGR on that graph?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:50 | 2451965 Calidreaming
Calidreaming's picture

Well I like to differ about Gold.  Think the run to gold is similar to past and current

bubbles.  Think the true value of gold is in the 600-800 oz range.

 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:55 | 2451995 crghill
crghill's picture

What will it be worth after they print another 3 Trillion $ out of thin air?  Or after they print a few trillion Euro?  I'm just askin.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:56 | 2451998 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

To: Calidreaming

How large is your short position?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:00 | 2452025 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Any chance Calidreaming is Bruno Iksil?  Showed up around the same time JPM declared him expendable.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:07 | 2452086 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Looking at his avatar, he appears to be underwater...

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:14 | 2452150 Boston
Boston's picture

I'm very long but looking for a drop to 1350-1500 before the printing (and Au rebound) begins.

This would be similar to what happened in 2008.....slamming into (and even a little beyond) the lower channel line.

More importantly, it'll provide lower prices at which to buy more!

 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:55 | 2451999 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Think the true value of gold is in the 600-800 oz range.

 

600-800 what?  US Dollars?  How many barrels of oil does an ounce of gold buy, and is that more or less than 10 years ago or 50 years ago?

Your prediction is pointless banter.  I'll leave it to others to educate you as to why gold is not a bubble, but moreover it is viewed by the holders here as a store of purchasing power.  We don't care too much about the "transitory" price swings effectuated by the "barbarous relics" that occupy the central bank leather chairs.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 17:48 | 2452937 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Correct. You can still buy a gallon of gas for .20 cents if it's two silver dimes.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:04 | 2452058 AmazingLarry
AmazingLarry's picture

I think you forgot to add a 10 to those figures, homeslice. 

 

 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:33 | 2452304 css1971
css1971's picture

The ratio of gold to oil is typically about 15. It's about that now. Gold is approximately fairly priced.

People should really stop worrying about how many dollars per ounce. The same number of ounces will buy you about the same amount of stuff. i.e. oil.

Guess what. If gold hits 600 per ounce, the S&P will be at 500, the DOW will be at 4700,  oil will be at 40 and you will still get 15 barrels of oil for an ounce of gold.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:37 | 2452338 Sweet Chicken
Sweet Chicken's picture

This guy gets it!

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 19:59 | 2453357 engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

You're both wrong. Petroleum is a temporary fad, a blip on the radar that won't be around in another 50 years.

Land is permanent.

Keep your eye on the Gold/Land ratio charts and you will be better off.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 23:43 | 2453877 GlobalCtzn
GlobalCtzn's picture

I agree. Oil is another facet of this MANIPULATION. Land is less than perfect as a guage, but much more difficult to manipulate in the aggregate than the price of oil.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 19:17 | 2453222 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Well said

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:28 | 2452621 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Mr California Dreaming, Great name, You obviously are dreaming and do not understand what 28 more years of deficit spending means. It means more borrowing or printing and I think it will be printing since everyone else is running out of money too. You really think thats bearish for gold?

Need to see the link........I am sure. From ZH no doubt, you read that dont you.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ryan-2013-budget-details-released-which-we-find-us-runs-deficit-until-2040

 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 20:40 | 2453481 ljag
ljag's picture

I'm a little fearful of gold (although I own quite a few coins). SILVER is where the eyes should be pointed. I predict silver will eventually overtake gold in price (per dollar) before all is said and done. Look at what we did to the Chinese and their silver-backed currency. They don't forget.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:51 | 2451969 MeanReversion
MeanReversion's picture

If there's a Grexit I can promise you that gold will fall below the bottom rung of the channel.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 19:18 | 2453229 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Great, so if the spot price doesn't actually fall below the bottom of the channel I can buy from you direct, right?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:51 | 2451971 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

If Goldman says the dip is over, it ain't over.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:51 | 2451973 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Who cares....whatever.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:55 | 2451996 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Where are tmosley and those gold pumping whores now? The fucking jack offs. Lost their dresses I say.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:59 | 2452009 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Yeah, those 11 consecutive years of losses in gold, have to hurt!

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:35 | 2452321 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

Because it went up, it will go up? Now, I am convinced and will refuse to acknowledge facts.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:52 | 2452450 tmosley
tmosley's picture

No, he is commenting on the fact that long term holders of gold and silver haven't lost, as their cost averages are inevitably far below current paper valuation.  It is fairly clear from the context that he was not making a prediction.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 17:51 | 2452943 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Not to mention it's only a loss if you sell it for less than you paid for it. Paper losses don't mean anything.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:30 | 2452079 fuu
fuu's picture

I think you have a customer over in the Vodka Aisle.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:20 | 2452201 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

niggas is too busy buying.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:33 | 2452296 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Eh?  I said paper was going to ZERO, dumbass.

Everything is playing out much as I expected it would.  There is less volatility than I expected, and it has taken longer than I thought, but the central premise of my thesis remains in place.

Also, it's interesting that you are pounding your chest while you ahve only been here for 12 weeks.  Who were you before?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:53 | 2452462 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Trav alert?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:09 | 2452551 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Sounds about right.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 23:59 | 2453910 prole
prole's picture

William il Bastardo?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:20 | 2452599 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Yep, the rat bastards that have been collecting gold since it was south of $300.00 an ounce are hurting. Real bad. And, by the way, tmosley always talked silver, the metal of commerce. It is only up more than 300 percent over the last 15 years. Go die in a fiat currency stock certificate fire, Robot Trader.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 17:16 | 2452839 AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

"Where are tmosley and those gold pumping whores now? "

They've gone shopping.  Discount shopping.  Because this month they have to work fewer hours to buy an ounce than a few months ago.

Sucks to be them.  

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:51 | 2451976 Fortunes Favor
Fortunes Favor's picture

Apple Top Leads To Market Top As Predicted, So What's Next... An Epic Gold Entry Point

http://seekingalpha.com/article/606821-apple-top-leads-to-market-top-as-...

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:51 | 2451977 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Push it lower for all I care. It'll just allow me to load up on more using my soon-to-be-worth-less-and-less fiat.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:19 | 2452597 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

TA ain't working for gold anyhow.  That thing broke a long time ago.  Only the vaporizing of JPM will help reveal the actual value of gold.  Until then, just keep a tight grip on your ankles.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:51 | 2451978 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

Wow, people acutally pay printing press money for that type of technical work?  I'm in the wrong racket.  Regardless, one might say the overshoot of the upperband will result in a undershoot on the lower band.  It's happened before, but that does not mean it has to happen again.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.  Blah blah blah..

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:52 | 2451979 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

Now, let the gold market know that the dip is over because it doesn't seem to have heard about it.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:04 | 2452056 dereksatkinson
dereksatkinson's picture

They hit gold because of the IAEA news on Iran.  The world is "safer" now apparently. 

If you want to bet on gold being down for 5 months in a row, go ahead and short it.  The low last week is most likely within 3-5% of a major low. 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:53 | 2451988 Wolferl
Wolferl's picture

Wow, this chart must be from UBS magic witchcraft department.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:54 | 2451993 The Axe
The Axe's picture

volume dropping faster the a German bankers pants...

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:55 | 2451994 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Bernanke is having so much success attacking gold and silver - why should he stop now?  Technical analysis does not work in a manipulated market.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:31 | 2452649 Stackers
Stackers's picture

Bingo

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:56 | 2452001 Mongo
Mongo's picture

Is that what you call 'ahead of the curve'

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:58 | 2452006 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

It means I'm glad I sold, seems to be a lot of support around $1,000...

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:03 | 2452045 Beastmanager
Beastmanager's picture

I feel pity for you... I can see the future.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 14:59 | 2452022 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

Gary Gensler et al will do their utmost to make it move south.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:03 | 2452048 Calidreaming
Calidreaming's picture

I am definately in the hate Bernake , hate Obama, hate all artificial stimulus camp , and wish my long awaited stock market crash would be sooner rather than later.   With that said -I think Gold is similar to buying internet stocks in 1999.  Too much - to fast- its a bubble.  It will see 1000 before it sees 2000

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:08 | 2452096 AmazingLarry
AmazingLarry's picture

Pretty sure the CB's that are buying at $1600 will return it all to the gold store when it gets cut in half as you suggest. Those bullion banks do offer that 90-day satisfation guarantee or your fiat back.

 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:10 | 2452116 ultimate warrior
ultimate warrior's picture

Go ask 100 people if they have physical AU or AG. I bet you wont find 1 person that has it. I would even bet that those people wouldn't have any idea what the price is for the metal. You can't have a bubble if less than 1 percent of the population has it! I'm getting more.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:22 | 2452138 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

The production cost of many gold mines is $1150 to $1250 an ounce.  Supply will decrease significantly at $1000 an ounce.

And now the East has lots of money compared to a decade ago.  Real estate in China is $150 trillion and all the gold bullion in the world is 3 billion ounces and worth under $4.8 trillion.

Besides, US debt and unfunded liabilities increase by $8.21 trillion every year ($1.52 trillion debt and $6.69 trillion unfunded liabilities). Bernanke will have to continue his printing.

It is extremely unlikely that the Chinese and Indians will let it fall that far without trying to buy up all the available supply.

 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:30 | 2452275 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Bite me!

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:38 | 2452342 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Really?  Who do you know in real life that is buying gold?

I knew lots of people buying internet stocks.  Hell, I bought some myself.  Had a nice tech heavy mutual fund too.  What a fucking loser I was with that shit.  Made it up by buying paper gold in the mid 2000's, though, and more than made it up with physical metals investments since.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:14 | 2452568 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

The dollar is the bubble, not gold. If they ever do manage to push the paper price down to $1000 again, you won't find any physical for sale anywhere. Oh, and the Crimex will finally blow up.

How many tons did China buy at $1100, again?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 17:35 | 2452910 AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

Exactly.

If gold is valued at $1,000 and no transactions take place because nobody is willing to part with it (it meaning physical, of course) at that price, is $1,000 the REAL VALUE of gold?  And if you buy $1,000 paper gold, and cannot convert it to physical because nobody is willing to part with physical at that price, then does the paper represent ownership of gold?

 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 17:38 | 2452894 AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

" It will see 1000 before it sees 2000"

 

So..............what?  

If I'm not willing to part with it for $1,000 who gives a damn?  I retain the value (# of hours worked to obtain it).  I sell only when it reaches a price at which I am willing to part with it.  Which is pretty damned high.  If it falls to below $1,000 my labor-hours I paid for it do not disappear, unless I sell it at that price.

And I (like to think that I) have another 60 years to wait for the price to reach a point where I can convert my stored labor hours into consumption.  The shenanigans of TPTB and their attempts to manipulate everything including PM's do not present a problem (they just make me sleep better at night knowing I have purchased insurance against them).  

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:04 | 2452054 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

What about break of 2008-1012 trendline that targets $1200?  Thinking that sets up a buying opportunity on commodity but haven't looked at stocks to see what has already been priced in.

 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:44 | 2452057 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I think the appropriate question is ... Does this mean the rise in fiat is over? Since gold is a constant.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:07 | 2452062 Seorse Gorog fr...
Seorse Gorog from that Quantum Entanglement Fund. alright_.-'s picture

Sooo... can I draw a channel any shape I want with whatever 'expected price'? Has UBS ever heard of curve-fitting??

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:10 | 2452111 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

hey they got paid big money to calc he +/- 3 SD channel 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:57 | 2452118 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I predict this comment will get one up vote...

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:57 | 2452119 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I predict this comment will get two down votes...

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:16 | 2452580 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Get ya another alt, and a quick edit, and try for three.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:56 | 2452120 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I predict this comment will get one up vote & one down vote...

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:07 | 2452091 ArrestBobRubin
ArrestBobRubin's picture

JPM up 6.66%

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:09 | 2452107 DUNTHAT
Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:10 | 2452115 slow_roast
slow_roast's picture

EXACTLY!  Anyone else remember when the US was downgraded?  Gold is trading lower now than it was when that happened. 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:33 | 2452307 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

Are you saying that the gold market doesn't care about the rating of the US debt?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:12 | 2452130 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

There is a reason that gold has to go higher; the risks and expenses are going higher.  The break even point for a majority of miners is around $1400 and if true inflation is over 10%, the price will be at least $2000 by 2014 regardless of any world events.  So to all those really stupid posts that postulate a price of less than $1000:

Please return head to inside of rectum.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:23 | 2452223 Calidreaming
Calidreaming's picture

Dudes  Gold is worth about as much as a box of frosted flakes .  Its  amazing all the gold bulls on this board.  Yet we all agree on the crazy manipulation going.  If the Europe then China, then India and finally the US implodes - Gold goes DOWN. bigtime.  Not sure why you guys dont see that

 

 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:29 | 2452268 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

It's easy to tell you're from Cali and you're still dreaming.  Try reading some articles on ZH.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:45 | 2452393 geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

mostly touts, few articles

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:37 | 2452334 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

If Europe, then China and India and finally the US go down, you want money in the bank? What bank?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:44 | 2452377 Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

"If the Europe then China, then India and finally the US implodes - Gold goes DOWN. bigtime.  Not sure why you guys dont see that"

I would need a very long stay in room 101 to see that...

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:05 | 2452532 semperfi
semperfi's picture

Ok Cali, put your Frosty Flakes where your mouth is - I'll trade you my 10 boxes of Frosty Flakes for 1 oz of gold. Whaddaya say champ ?  Deal ?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:31 | 2452650 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Calidreaming - fire up the bong for another hit of " educated thinking " Jesus, this tripe isn't even bad trolling. Keep all your dry powder in paper, please. See you on the other side of the Jim Morrison implosion moment. You'll be lucky to find a can of  " Dinky Dog " to chow on, and that's only if you got real good lip control, 'cause that is all you're gonna have to trade with.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:25 | 2452231 Cycle
Cycle's picture

Until the Fed increases the monetary base, deflation will continue and I suspect gold prices, and the prices of many other assets will continue to drift lower. http://econocasts.blogspot.com/

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 20:10 | 2453399 engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

You are wrong.

Just because they are not talking about how much money they are printing does not mean that they are not printing a shitload of money.

Do you actually believe that they would tell us?

What, Evil will suddenly become Good?

You're fucking lost.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:25 | 2452236 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

True:  production cost is from 12-1400; but what about profit?  Taking all those risks for no profit?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:18 | 2452589 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

True:  production cost is from 12-1400; but what about profit?  Taking all those risks for no profit?

*****************

2011 was a stellar year for Barrick as production totaled 7.7 million ounces of gold at net cash costs of $339 per ounce.

Barrick earned 1.29 billion in quarter 1

http://seekingalpha.com/article/607931-barrick-gold-all-that-glitters

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:29 | 2452255 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Paper gold is for hedging physical gold.  Right now the premium you are paying, over the inverse of production cost, to short paper to hedge physical leaves no meat on the bone.  Hedging here is expensive.  You can read the mining shares financials.  Silver is break even here for primary silver mines in total operating cost per ounce.  Gold is maybe getting 200 an ounce profit.  That is why the commercials are covering all shorts.  Why would anyone sell production for a loss just because the paper hedging market is broken, thanks to the stupid CME defaulting on insurance to MF Global clients and generally acting like corrupt idiots.  The paper market is broken.  Stay in all physical.  Do not keep it in a bank.  Your home is a safer place.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:32 | 2452290 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Well said!

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:30 | 2452271 vegas
vegas's picture

Uh huh. Tell this to those that were long all day. If we do in fact break 1530 from here, I weep for the future.

 

http://vegasxau.blogspot.com

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:30 | 2452278 geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

yet another tout piece on gold does ZH own a mine somewhere?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:34 | 2452661 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Nope, no Zero Hedge gold mines here. We all lost our metals in tragic boating accidents. We are all truly liquid. Go play in the snow blower running on the airport runway.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:32 | 2452287 XtraBullish
XtraBullish's picture

I am XtraBullish on anal probes...

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:36 | 2452669 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

I had a buddy into that, until he found the big one. His buddies used to say " Rectum ? It damm near killed him ! " No fudge packing for me - I prefer beavers.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:34 | 2452315 Balmyone
Balmyone's picture

Looks like gold could yet move a little lower, and then maybe grind along the bottom of the channel indefinitely.

Might be too early to get extremely bullish on the yellow metal methinks.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:43 | 2452374 geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

The USD continues its uptrend vs.  all currencies both major and minor. with the sharp drop in the euro and yen today gold, in dollar terms will probably decline 

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:51 | 2452444 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

TA, tea leaves ... gold has been crashing for months. I don't need TA to read the price of anything.

This site is losing value because it refuses to acknowledge facts like most media whose purpose is not to report the news but to carry an ideology. 

The price of gold follows the value of the euro (often by the minute) and nothing else. I still don't understand why no one wants to write about that fact.

The euro went from $0.8 to $1.6 within ten years and is now crashing ... now look at gold prices over the past 10 years.

Wed, 05/23/2012 - 01:02 | 2454001 MrFriskles
MrFriskles's picture

I don't get it, is gold leaving the precious metals union? I hadn't heard that. ZH definitely has a PM slant, but they are pulling more than their fair share of other news articles that you really have to dig for otherwise. The site is a news site and a place of commentary on the collapse as we know it, pretty sure everybody knows that and takes things with their own grain of salt. We are all mostly here to create and cultivate the ability to filter the world, so whats the issue?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:53 | 2452457 AchtungAffen
AchtungAffen's picture

It better be because today it just dropped over 30 bucks more... Just when I thought the drop was really over, another 30 bucks drop...

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:55 | 2452464 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Nope, drops will occur as each country/banks that begin to collapse starts liqudating it's gold to try to stay afloat. Gold flooding and then price rebound as demand is filled should be scaring the shit out of people (at least those that think all is well). The channel may change a bit depending on the size of the country/bank trying to keep itself able to provide some form of liquidity. The ultimate trend though will be upward. The key is catching just before they hit the point of realizing no amount of liquidity will help and decide survival is the only option. Then gold prices will spike. Most of the big boys can hold off until mid 2013 barring some unforseen issue.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 15:58 | 2452492 Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

Dip is over? Could you hang on for another day or so. I've got some access paper coming up shortly that I wouldn't mind transmuting into barbarous relics at these prices. kktnxbb.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:01 | 2452511 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Wow, until today, I'd never seen a 'support channel' drawn using a parabola.  I thought they used 'straight lines' to draw the

channels.  More Technical Analysis wizardry.  Why not just use the 'head and shoulders' of a fish, too?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:04 | 2452528 sockratte
sockratte's picture

-10

its not a parabola

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 21:04 | 2453537 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

It could be a parabola (or partial parabola) given that we cannot see the full vertices. All that means is that the channel could be some second order effect (if real).

There are of course other explanations.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:06 | 2452535 Cupid Stunt
Cupid Stunt's picture

Hey guys what happened to the `algo kid' AKA Robotard ?

Would love to hear his spin on this shit. Back to some old school ZH......

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 16:41 | 2452689 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

He would be telling you how he shorted the shit out of Facebook out of the gate, pushed the whole fucking heap of profit on to some penny stocks, and broke even - only in a more spectacular form of story telling smothered in bullshit, lies, deception, and fiat cheerleading. Gawd, he was the bright spot of humor on any day of the week. They just don't make trolls like they used to....................ahhh, for the good old days.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 20:17 | 2453418 engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

Why is no one talking about what happened at the Swiss Parliament today?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 21:00 | 2453528 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Did they approve the gold Swissie?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 20:41 | 2453477 Overfed
Overfed's picture

I, for one, hope that PMs stay down for awhile. I don't have nearly enough yet. I'm also thinking that Palladium is a good buy right now. Yes? No?

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 20:59 | 2453523 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

All rules and trends are broken eventually as understanding of the environment advances.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 21:50 | 2453660 sherryw
sherryw's picture

The bottom of the channel on the chart from 2000 to 2012 is around 1350 from what I can see. With a bit of overshooting to the downside in a deflationary scare I can't see why it wouldn't go that low or a bit lower and not still be bullish. Maybe we've only got the left shoulder formed on the big reverse H and S.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 22:00 | 2453692 Angelo Misterioso
Angelo Misterioso's picture

Considering it takes a lot of oil (and labor) to dig up the gold it would seem logical that gold and oil have some correlation over great lengths of time. To me that has been the hedge versus inflation.  When the insane money printing leads to higher prices for labor and oil (and other commodities) then it will cost more to dig up the gold.  If the gold price does not justify this labor & energy expense then no mining will occur until the price adjusts.

Tue, 05/22/2012 - 23:51 | 2453866 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

zig zag.

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