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Does The Gold "Support Channel" Mean The Drop Is Over?
With the inevitable chatter of further easing from the ECB and the 'Fed must act soon surely' to monetize Facebook shares, this chart via UBS shows the longer-term support channel suggesting, at least for those who follow technical analysis, that gold's dip may be over...
Chart: UBS
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it ain't over until Merkel sings, bitchez.
I'm looking to drop into Mandy's blouse
As long as the problems persist in Europe, gold will find it hard to rally.
Yes, because all the panicky bank-runners will convert every Euro/drachma they can milk out of the ATM into US Dollars. But that just coils the spring a little tighter in my view...
Wait. Stack. Prevail.
Agreed, this weekend I caught an STD - as I continue to Stack The Dips!
If only it was airborn contagious. Sheeple might catch it.
Its over when its over.
Did you notice, FB and Gold
currently move in the same direction.... :-))
Its all "Zucked".
Are the governments spewing money again?
Oh no but some magic line on a chart will be buying?
Did they ever stop?
Guess I should go and buy some more eh...
I recommend - for the sake of your loved ones - that you treat your STD immediately.
only if there is another lsap by the fed, and ONLY IF, will gold break 2000. there is no other way. bernanke is handling this beautifully. stocks have stayed levitated, bond yields are at historic lows, commodity deflation has been chipping away at everything not nailed down. he has no need to do anything, and wont, until at least after obama is re-elected. so dont count on gold wandering too far north. not very likely.
yeah Kito because gold wasn't in a bull market for eight years prior to QE. QE is the only reason the gold price has risen.
kito?
Don't confuse him with any facts. He's a flat earth deflationist who doesnt understand PM's at all.
You never hear of a kito ostrich?
That's when you extricate your head from your arse and bury it in the ground isn't it?
The bond market was in a 30yr bull market so I guess by same logic QE is not the only reason bond prices spiked?
Soon to be down year over year- how long will the delusional fanatic hang in there?
How long will the denial that QE is what spiked everything except wages and homes sink the fuck into the donkeyhumans?
It won't. So much debt has been created that there is not enough cash in the system to liquidate all the sellers at par. That means either capital writedowns or more money printing. Capital writedowns on sovereign debt are the death knell for an economy. The damage has already been done, just as it was in Weimar Germany throughout the first World War though the collapse didn't occur until nearly eight years later.
The Germans tried to not print in 1919 but since so much cash had already been printed and prices had already risen by a multiple of seventeen, not printing was by then not an option for your average worker. Does Greece ring any bells here? Either print, or collapse, and then collapse. The damage has already been done. Either way it will make no difference whatsoever to the outcome for gold and general prices of foodstuffs, which will inevitably go higher. A lot higher.
Either way.
Paralysis by analysis....makes me wonder: Gates open a few years back on Gold, commodities and equities to let in the suckers. add some drama to insert some volatility and interest. Set the traps to lock people in and then viola!...pull the rug out of everything simutaneously. Bankers win again!
Can it be that simple?
How can they pull the rug out from under me if I still have my stack? I still have a job and income...if they pull the rug out, my stack will get bigger!!
Only if our income exceeds our needs, It may get to the point we have no more extra income, and I believe that it is their goal.
This is a silly chart of derivative gold. It's price doesn't indicate gold's true scarcity. The gift is that the physical price is driven off the derivative.
Gold is aritifcally low, interest rates are artificailly low and derivative values are, for the most part, artificially high.
+1
And we have a winner!
kito: "bernanke is handling this beautifully"
That really depends upon one's goals and time frames.
If Bernanke's raison d'être is propping up the house of cards well enough to fool enough people long enough to get O'Bama reelected, then I suppose you might have a point.
That isn't exactly the benchmark I'd use for "handling this beautifully", however.
To each his own, I suppose.
if DXY rallies back to it's 2010 level, gold could be 1200 an oz. with the euro breaking and the yen starting to slip in what looks like a potential big fall ahead, the dollar could get back to the levels it was at 2 years ago. this would probably smack the DJIA pretty well, along with most commodities including gold.
Cheap OTM FAZ calls will protect my stack...
Believe I called 1000/oz as soon as it hit 1800.
Funny, the same zuckers who bought the now mellow yellow metal at 1800 probably bought fraudbook at 100 billion. Most of you fools spending your beer money on souveneer shop nuggets that probably can only be cashed in for 20% fees. Morons most of you.
There's a zucker born every minute I guess!
How right you are thunder-- Gold, currency of the Gods, The premier money/precious metal from King Tuts time, to Jesus, the Spanish Armada until now, imagine all those suckers, what a bunch of saps!
monetize Facebook shares, nice.
Technically this is about as useful as any analcysts.
Raid on in full force this arvo. JPM surging. Shocking.
Dead cat bounce!
Dead "dog" bounce this time around..
What's the CAGR on that graph?
Well I like to differ about Gold. Think the run to gold is similar to past and current
bubbles. Think the true value of gold is in the 600-800 oz range.
What will it be worth after they print another 3 Trillion $ out of thin air? Or after they print a few trillion Euro? I'm just askin.
To: Calidreaming
How large is your short position?
Any chance Calidreaming is Bruno Iksil? Showed up around the same time JPM declared him expendable.
Looking at his avatar, he appears to be underwater...
I'm very long but looking for a drop to 1350-1500 before the printing (and Au rebound) begins.
This would be similar to what happened in 2008.....slamming into (and even a little beyond) the lower channel line.
More importantly, it'll provide lower prices at which to buy more!
Think the true value of gold is in the 600-800 oz range.
600-800 what? US Dollars? How many barrels of oil does an ounce of gold buy, and is that more or less than 10 years ago or 50 years ago?
Your prediction is pointless banter. I'll leave it to others to educate you as to why gold is not a bubble, but moreover it is viewed by the holders here as a store of purchasing power. We don't care too much about the "transitory" price swings effectuated by the "barbarous relics" that occupy the central bank leather chairs.
Correct. You can still buy a gallon of gas for .20 cents if it's two silver dimes.
I think you forgot to add a 10 to those figures, homeslice.
The ratio of gold to oil is typically about 15. It's about that now. Gold is approximately fairly priced.
People should really stop worrying about how many dollars per ounce. The same number of ounces will buy you about the same amount of stuff. i.e. oil.
Guess what. If gold hits 600 per ounce, the S&P will be at 500, the DOW will be at 4700, oil will be at 40 and you will still get 15 barrels of oil for an ounce of gold.
This guy gets it!
You're both wrong. Petroleum is a temporary fad, a blip on the radar that won't be around in another 50 years.
Land is permanent.
Keep your eye on the Gold/Land ratio charts and you will be better off.
I agree. Oil is another facet of this MANIPULATION. Land is less than perfect as a guage, but much more difficult to manipulate in the aggregate than the price of oil.
Well said
Mr California Dreaming, Great name, You obviously are dreaming and do not understand what 28 more years of deficit spending means. It means more borrowing or printing and I think it will be printing since everyone else is running out of money too. You really think thats bearish for gold?
Need to see the link........I am sure. From ZH no doubt, you read that dont you.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ryan-2013-budget-details-released-which-we-find-us-runs-deficit-until-2040
I'm a little fearful of gold (although I own quite a few coins). SILVER is where the eyes should be pointed. I predict silver will eventually overtake gold in price (per dollar) before all is said and done. Look at what we did to the Chinese and their silver-backed currency. They don't forget.
If there's a Grexit I can promise you that gold will fall below the bottom rung of the channel.
Great, so if the spot price doesn't actually fall below the bottom of the channel I can buy from you direct, right?
If Goldman says the dip is over, it ain't over.
Who cares....whatever.
Where are tmosley and those gold pumping whores now? The fucking jack offs. Lost their dresses I say.
Yeah, those 11 consecutive years of losses in gold, have to hurt!
Because it went up, it will go up? Now, I am convinced and will refuse to acknowledge facts.
No, he is commenting on the fact that long term holders of gold and silver haven't lost, as their cost averages are inevitably far below current paper valuation. It is fairly clear from the context that he was not making a prediction.
Not to mention it's only a loss if you sell it for less than you paid for it. Paper losses don't mean anything.
I think you have a customer over in the Vodka Aisle.
niggas is too busy buying.
Eh? I said paper was going to ZERO, dumbass.
Everything is playing out much as I expected it would. There is less volatility than I expected, and it has taken longer than I thought, but the central premise of my thesis remains in place.
Also, it's interesting that you are pounding your chest while you ahve only been here for 12 weeks. Who were you before?
Trav alert?
Sounds about right.
William il Bastardo?
Yep, the rat bastards that have been collecting gold since it was south of $300.00 an ounce are hurting. Real bad. And, by the way, tmosley always talked silver, the metal of commerce. It is only up more than 300 percent over the last 15 years. Go die in a fiat currency stock certificate fire, Robot Trader.
"Where are tmosley and those gold pumping whores now? "
They've gone shopping. Discount shopping. Because this month they have to work fewer hours to buy an ounce than a few months ago.
Sucks to be them.
Apple Top Leads To Market Top As Predicted, So What's Next... An Epic Gold Entry Point
http://seekingalpha.com/article/606821-apple-top-leads-to-market-top-as-...
Push it lower for all I care. It'll just allow me to load up on more using my soon-to-be-worth-less-and-less fiat.
TA ain't working for gold anyhow. That thing broke a long time ago. Only the vaporizing of JPM will help reveal the actual value of gold. Until then, just keep a tight grip on your ankles.
Wow, people acutally pay printing press money for that type of technical work? I'm in the wrong racket. Regardless, one might say the overshoot of the upperband will result in a undershoot on the lower band. It's happened before, but that does not mean it has to happen again. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Blah blah blah..
Now, let the gold market know that the dip is over because it doesn't seem to have heard about it.
They hit gold because of the IAEA news on Iran. The world is "safer" now apparently.
If you want to bet on gold being down for 5 months in a row, go ahead and short it. The low last week is most likely within 3-5% of a major low.
Wow, this chart must be from UBS magic witchcraft department.
volume dropping faster the a German bankers pants...
Bernanke is having so much success attacking gold and silver - why should he stop now? Technical analysis does not work in a manipulated market.
Bingo
Is that what you call 'ahead of the curve'
It means I'm glad I sold, seems to be a lot of support around $1,000...
I feel pity for you... I can see the future.
Gary Gensler et al will do their utmost to make it move south.
I am definately in the hate Bernake , hate Obama, hate all artificial stimulus camp , and wish my long awaited stock market crash would be sooner rather than later. With that said -I think Gold is similar to buying internet stocks in 1999. Too much - to fast- its a bubble. It will see 1000 before it sees 2000
Pretty sure the CB's that are buying at $1600 will return it all to the gold store when it gets cut in half as you suggest. Those bullion banks do offer that 90-day satisfation guarantee or your fiat back.
Go ask 100 people if they have physical AU or AG. I bet you wont find 1 person that has it. I would even bet that those people wouldn't have any idea what the price is for the metal. You can't have a bubble if less than 1 percent of the population has it! I'm getting more.
The production cost of many gold mines is $1150 to $1250 an ounce. Supply will decrease significantly at $1000 an ounce.
And now the East has lots of money compared to a decade ago. Real estate in China is $150 trillion and all the gold bullion in the world is 3 billion ounces and worth under $4.8 trillion.
Besides, US debt and unfunded liabilities increase by $8.21 trillion every year ($1.52 trillion debt and $6.69 trillion unfunded liabilities). Bernanke will have to continue his printing.
It is extremely unlikely that the Chinese and Indians will let it fall that far without trying to buy up all the available supply.
Bite me!
Really? Who do you know in real life that is buying gold?
I knew lots of people buying internet stocks. Hell, I bought some myself. Had a nice tech heavy mutual fund too. What a fucking loser I was with that shit. Made it up by buying paper gold in the mid 2000's, though, and more than made it up with physical metals investments since.
The dollar is the bubble, not gold. If they ever do manage to push the paper price down to $1000 again, you won't find any physical for sale anywhere. Oh, and the Crimex will finally blow up.
How many tons did China buy at $1100, again?
Exactly.
If gold is valued at $1,000 and no transactions take place because nobody is willing to part with it (it meaning physical, of course) at that price, is $1,000 the REAL VALUE of gold? And if you buy $1,000 paper gold, and cannot convert it to physical because nobody is willing to part with physical at that price, then does the paper represent ownership of gold?
" It will see 1000 before it sees 2000"
So..............what?
If I'm not willing to part with it for $1,000 who gives a damn? I retain the value (# of hours worked to obtain it). I sell only when it reaches a price at which I am willing to part with it. Which is pretty damned high. If it falls to below $1,000 my labor-hours I paid for it do not disappear, unless I sell it at that price.
And I (like to think that I) have another 60 years to wait for the price to reach a point where I can convert my stored labor hours into consumption. The shenanigans of TPTB and their attempts to manipulate everything including PM's do not present a problem (they just make me sleep better at night knowing I have purchased insurance against them).
What about break of 2008-1012 trendline that targets $1200? Thinking that sets up a buying opportunity on commodity but haven't looked at stocks to see what has already been priced in.
I think the appropriate question is ... Does this mean the rise in fiat is over? Since gold is a constant.
Sooo... can I draw a channel any shape I want with whatever 'expected price'? Has UBS ever heard of curve-fitting??
hey they got paid big money to calc he +/- 3 SD channel
I predict this comment will get one up vote...
I predict this comment will get two down votes...
Get ya another alt, and a quick edit, and try for three.
I predict this comment will get one up vote & one down vote...
JPM up 6.66%
Another analysis ...
https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B16Nxp5pgJBzWWk4MFNFUnNzaTg
EXACTLY! Anyone else remember when the US was downgraded? Gold is trading lower now than it was when that happened.
Are you saying that the gold market doesn't care about the rating of the US debt?
There is a reason that gold has to go higher; the risks and expenses are going higher. The break even point for a majority of miners is around $1400 and if true inflation is over 10%, the price will be at least $2000 by 2014 regardless of any world events. So to all those really stupid posts that postulate a price of less than $1000:
Please return head to inside of rectum.
Dudes Gold is worth about as much as a box of frosted flakes . Its amazing all the gold bulls on this board. Yet we all agree on the crazy manipulation going. If the Europe then China, then India and finally the US implodes - Gold goes DOWN. bigtime. Not sure why you guys dont see that
It's easy to tell you're from Cali and you're still dreaming. Try reading some articles on ZH.
mostly touts, few articles
If Europe, then China and India and finally the US go down, you want money in the bank? What bank?
"If the Europe then China, then India and finally the US implodes - Gold goes DOWN. bigtime. Not sure why you guys dont see that"
I would need a very long stay in room 101 to see that...
Ok Cali, put your Frosty Flakes where your mouth is - I'll trade you my 10 boxes of Frosty Flakes for 1 oz of gold. Whaddaya say champ ? Deal ?
Calidreaming - fire up the bong for another hit of " educated thinking " Jesus, this tripe isn't even bad trolling. Keep all your dry powder in paper, please. See you on the other side of the Jim Morrison implosion moment. You'll be lucky to find a can of " Dinky Dog " to chow on, and that's only if you got real good lip control, 'cause that is all you're gonna have to trade with.
Until the Fed increases the monetary base, deflation will continue and I suspect gold prices, and the prices of many other assets will continue to drift lower. http://econocasts.blogspot.com/
You are wrong.
Just because they are not talking about how much money they are printing does not mean that they are not printing a shitload of money.
Do you actually believe that they would tell us?
What, Evil will suddenly become Good?
You're fucking lost.
True: production cost is from 12-1400; but what about profit? Taking all those risks for no profit?
True: production cost is from 12-1400; but what about profit? Taking all those risks for no profit?
*****************
2011 was a stellar year for Barrick as production totaled 7.7 million ounces of gold at net cash costs of $339 per ounce.
Barrick earned 1.29 billion in quarter 1
http://seekingalpha.com/article/607931-barrick-gold-all-that-glitters
Paper gold is for hedging physical gold. Right now the premium you are paying, over the inverse of production cost, to short paper to hedge physical leaves no meat on the bone. Hedging here is expensive. You can read the mining shares financials. Silver is break even here for primary silver mines in total operating cost per ounce. Gold is maybe getting 200 an ounce profit. That is why the commercials are covering all shorts. Why would anyone sell production for a loss just because the paper hedging market is broken, thanks to the stupid CME defaulting on insurance to MF Global clients and generally acting like corrupt idiots. The paper market is broken. Stay in all physical. Do not keep it in a bank. Your home is a safer place.
Well said!
Uh huh. Tell this to those that were long all day. If we do in fact break 1530 from here, I weep for the future.
http://vegasxau.blogspot.com
yet another tout piece on gold does ZH own a mine somewhere?
Nope, no Zero Hedge gold mines here. We all lost our metals in tragic boating accidents. We are all truly liquid. Go play in the snow blower running on the airport runway.
I am XtraBullish on anal probes...
I had a buddy into that, until he found the big one. His buddies used to say " Rectum ? It damm near killed him ! " No fudge packing for me - I prefer beavers.
Looks like gold could yet move a little lower, and then maybe grind along the bottom of the channel indefinitely.
Might be too early to get extremely bullish on the yellow metal methinks.
The USD continues its uptrend vs. all currencies both major and minor. with the sharp drop in the euro and yen today gold, in dollar terms will probably decline
TA, tea leaves ... gold has been crashing for months. I don't need TA to read the price of anything.
This site is losing value because it refuses to acknowledge facts like most media whose purpose is not to report the news but to carry an ideology.
The price of gold follows the value of the euro (often by the minute) and nothing else. I still don't understand why no one wants to write about that fact.
The euro went from $0.8 to $1.6 within ten years and is now crashing ... now look at gold prices over the past 10 years.
I don't get it, is gold leaving the precious metals union? I hadn't heard that. ZH definitely has a PM slant, but they are pulling more than their fair share of other news articles that you really have to dig for otherwise. The site is a news site and a place of commentary on the collapse as we know it, pretty sure everybody knows that and takes things with their own grain of salt. We are all mostly here to create and cultivate the ability to filter the world, so whats the issue?
It better be because today it just dropped over 30 bucks more... Just when I thought the drop was really over, another 30 bucks drop...
Nope, drops will occur as each country/banks that begin to collapse starts liqudating it's gold to try to stay afloat. Gold flooding and then price rebound as demand is filled should be scaring the shit out of people (at least those that think all is well). The channel may change a bit depending on the size of the country/bank trying to keep itself able to provide some form of liquidity. The ultimate trend though will be upward. The key is catching just before they hit the point of realizing no amount of liquidity will help and decide survival is the only option. Then gold prices will spike. Most of the big boys can hold off until mid 2013 barring some unforseen issue.
Dip is over? Could you hang on for another day or so. I've got some access paper coming up shortly that I wouldn't mind transmuting into barbarous relics at these prices. kktnxbb.
Wow, until today, I'd never seen a 'support channel' drawn using a parabola. I thought they used 'straight lines' to draw the
channels. More Technical Analysis wizardry. Why not just use the 'head and shoulders' of a fish, too?
-10
its not a parabola
It could be a parabola (or partial parabola) given that we cannot see the full vertices. All that means is that the channel could be some second order effect (if real).
There are of course other explanations.
Hey guys what happened to the `algo kid' AKA Robotard ?
Would love to hear his spin on this shit. Back to some old school ZH......
He would be telling you how he shorted the shit out of Facebook out of the gate, pushed the whole fucking heap of profit on to some penny stocks, and broke even - only in a more spectacular form of story telling smothered in bullshit, lies, deception, and fiat cheerleading. Gawd, he was the bright spot of humor on any day of the week. They just don't make trolls like they used to....................ahhh, for the good old days.
Why is no one talking about what happened at the Swiss Parliament today?
Did they approve the gold Swissie?
I, for one, hope that PMs stay down for awhile. I don't have nearly enough yet. I'm also thinking that Palladium is a good buy right now. Yes? No?
All rules and trends are broken eventually as understanding of the environment advances.
The bottom of the channel on the chart from 2000 to 2012 is around 1350 from what I can see. With a bit of overshooting to the downside in a deflationary scare I can't see why it wouldn't go that low or a bit lower and not still be bullish. Maybe we've only got the left shoulder formed on the big reverse H and S.
Considering it takes a lot of oil (and labor) to dig up the gold it would seem logical that gold and oil have some correlation over great lengths of time. To me that has been the hedge versus inflation. When the insane money printing leads to higher prices for labor and oil (and other commodities) then it will cost more to dig up the gold. If the gold price does not justify this labor & energy expense then no mining will occur until the price adjusts.
zig zag.