Doug Casey: How To Prepare For When Money Dies

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Tue, 09/27/2011 - 18:32 | 1716510 Cynical Sidney
Cynical Sidney's picture

gold bug +1. gimme the gold i want the gold where the gold at?

ps. cocaine on walmart shelves? i'm going out to walmart. and speaking of empty chinese cities, we should 'export' the poorest, most unproductive welfare recipients to china and have them repopulate those empty cities.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 18:59 | 1716636 trampstamp
trampstamp's picture

Check this guy out:

http://nietzschesportfolio.blogspot.com/

Bad mouthing ZH...

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 19:21 | 1716695 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Why are you driving trafic to this shit?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 19:51 | 1716781 ParisianThinker
ParisianThinker's picture

I see you know what you are talking about, n'est-ce pas?

Don't care for DC and his sales pitches.

I bought US 30 year Treasuries , ZROZ and EDV.

The top 3 investments, better than his picks!

I didn't have to subscribe to his self-serving dribble.

 

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:25 | 1717041 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 22:01 | 1717141 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Ron Paul and Gary who???

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:43 | 1717093 Pants McPants
Pants McPants's picture

Please oh please check back here in two years and let's see how you do versus the Casey portfolio.

There's a reason people pay for Doug Casey's insights.  I'll give you a hint: it's the same reason you're talking your book in an unprovable way.

But hey, good luck to you.  May you make tons of clownbux.

Wed, 09/28/2011 - 08:41 | 1717969 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

Hey tramp,

 did you  espy the fact there are no comments posted to any of nietzsches articles?

I looked all the way back to 2010,  that is the date of conception for that little blog, you should see his other blog "Bankstocks" it's set up, but not active.

**WARNING** that site is spurious!   check the twitter comments, he had 44 tweets on the 22 sep, this site is run by a borg.  Almost all the sites followers are realestate people.

I did find this jem of an article,   from     Wednesday, October 20, 2010


  3 months from now no one will be even talking about 'Foreclosure Gate' Video- James Altucher Says the Prophets of Doom Are All Wrong
Tue, 09/27/2011 - 19:00 | 1716637 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Why on Earth would the Chinese WANT our poorest, most unproductive welfare recipients?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 19:16 | 1716680 IAmNotMark
IAmNotMark's picture

Soylent Green?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:21 | 1717031 Stevious
Stevious's picture

Organ donors?  Of course they must be arrested first, but China is the only country with more felons than America....

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 22:07 | 1717157 bonderøven-farm ass
bonderøven-farm ass's picture

fertilizer......

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 22:19 | 1717190 Mr Pink
Mr Pink's picture

Do you think the Chinese will force them to pull their pants up over their asses?

Wed, 09/28/2011 - 06:39 | 1717754 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

Spare Parts

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 19:09 | 1716661 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

The last thing China wants is more mouths to feed unless they contribute to the bottom line.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 19:53 | 1716725 Two Towers AU AG
Two Towers AU AG's picture

On the topic of When Money Dies... read the book by the same name "When Money Dies by Adam Fergusson" its a very elaborate timeline on germanys descent into Hyperinflation..

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 20:39 | 1716917 wannabe traitor
wannabe traitor's picture

read that book too. I'm seeing some very big similariites between then and now.

Wed, 09/28/2011 - 11:43 | 1718568 covert
covert's picture

buy gold and books

http://expose2.wordpress.com

 

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 18:22 | 1716524 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

 

 

Unfortunately, when the deflationary, deleveraging "cataclysm" hits, gold mining stocks will go down 300% faster than any other sector in the S & P 500.

As witnessed a few days ago when the F12 punching GATA boys and CIGA's were getting margin called.

Heh, if Fidelity or Vanguard just sold 1/10th of their position in AAPL alone, and used the proceeds to buy the GDX, that could have actually made the gold stocks go up, not down.

But so far, the "Big Money" is not really interested in the sector.  They would rather scan the "largest percentage gainers" list and find the next CMG, LULU, PCLN, FOSL, or even some bottle rockets like TZOO, which skied and subsequently crashed, yet it has still outpeformed NEM over the last 2 years.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 18:35 | 1716568 Robslob
Robslob's picture

 

 

Unfortunately Rotot you can not have your deflationary cake and eat it to (stocks soar gold falls) ...you clearly are not a trader.

 

Traitor...yes...trader....no!

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 18:40 | 1716584 SRV - ES339
SRV - ES339's picture

... only if the metals go down with them... a big if.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 23:53 | 1717353 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

the metals go nowhere... paper does.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 18:41 | 1716586 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I heard some funds were shorting the mining stocks to hedge gold exposure and that kept them down in price comparison.

I agree with you though, at some point, they will be hit big when the next QE comes along; but they won't really be down long term until the central banks quit debauching their currencies (which may not be until after the next big war).

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 18:54 | 1716606 Au_Ag_CuPbCu
Au_Ag_CuPbCu's picture

"As witnessed a few days ago when the F12 punching GATA boys and CIGA's were getting margin called."

Really Robot?  I sersiously doubt the GATA boys and CIGA's are playing with paper.  Thanks for once again displaying your I DON'T GET IT club card.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 18:50 | 1716617 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

i'm not liking gold stocks more and more,,,,,,i think when the hammer fall oil will be priced in gold therefore crimping the miners to get the gold out of the ground

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 19:58 | 1716796 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

One word bitchez - Nationalization.  Due you diligence!

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 20:17 | 1716844 Withdrawn Sanction
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RT, that's the second time you've asserted that mining stocks are 3 times more sensitive to a downdraft than ordinary stocks.  Do you have a jot of evidence to support your assertion?

Based on NEM, the one mining stock you did identify, its beta is 0.45, positively correlated w/the market, but not excessively so.  Indeed, that measure alone suggests it will fall LESS than the market, which seems logical.  That is, when people flee the momo darlings you chase, they will have to put their sales proceeds (or what's left of them) somewhere--PMs and the companies who dig  them out of the ground seem a likely place.  

So, yes, mining stocks seem likely to fall as the rest of the market deflates, but on a relative basis, they should be among the safer plays.  Good luck, however, with your picking-up-nickels-in-front-of-a-steamroller strategy.  What could possibly go wrong?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 22:07 | 1717155 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

p.m. mining stocks don't do badly in recessions, check out american barrick in the depression http://www.oilngold.com/analysis/research/gold-a-gold-stocks-during-peri... and note mr. hussman's (a more historically based analyst than robo, also his performance is audited and reported) comments http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110926.htm

Wed, 09/28/2011 - 09:24 | 1718076 wrs
wrs's picture

As one who trades these stocks on a cash basis, meaning I don't day trade and don't use margin, Robot is right to some degree.  The trick is to buy them after they fall three times faster than the rest of the market because the other side of that coin is the big gains they make when they correct.  I buy the crappy ones like GSS and GBG when they really get washed out and then sell them when they go back up 10%.  If you can make 10% on your trade in a few days to a week you are doing pretty well.

I have been trading in and out of KGC since April. That one takes me longer to get in and out of because it's less volatile. I have traded 22,000 shares and made $25,000 on it in the last four months.  Maybe that is picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer too in your opinion.  I have some long term positions in the miners that I hold and then trade around them.  I have traded KGC, GSS, CDE, SIL, GG, HMY, GBG and HL.  Right now I am getting killed in HL, that one has been a downer since I started buying it so I have had to resort to buying it's dips and selling it's rebounds. I bought it at $5.65 on Tuesday and sold it at $6.10 yesterday.  I bought GSS at $1.89 Tuesday and sold it at $2.09 yesterday.  Those are examples of short term trades that I make in order to recoup some longer term positions I get stuck in.  Ultimately I will make money on the HL position but my money is tied up right now unless I want to accept a loss which I don't have to.  Of course that is the risk with buying stocks, they go down in addition to going up.

The other thing you have to know about the gold stocks is that they don't always trade with gold, sometimes they trade against gold when the Ratio Trade is in command.  The gold stocks are confusing because funds still play them but the Ratio Trade uses them as a hedge against gold profits.  Given the beat down that gold has taken lately which means flushing many of the hedge funds out, the Ratio Trade has been less pronounced and the miners are more aligned with the POG and POS.  That of course isn't so good in this environment.  On the other hand, the HUI:GLD ratio should begin to rise back to a more normal value if the Ratio Traders are getting out.  That alone should be good for miners if gold can stay above $1500.

As to being relatively safe plays, I wouldn't bet that any stock is a safe play.  There is just too much volatility in the market to expect a safe play in any sector.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 18:22 | 1716526 Silver Kiwi
Silver Kiwi's picture

what's happened to all the posts on the home page? Only 4 posts showing up... I can't get my daily fix...

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 18:29 | 1716549 Let them all fail
Let them all fail's picture

same here

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 18:26 | 1716532 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

OzLand is sooo overpriced relative to income. The median house price there is OVER $635,000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I read.

The median income is under $70,000.

POP!

POP, goes the weasel! The gubberment there thought it was cool repeating what The Bernank-Timmy-Barry Team was doing so they gave tax credits to new home buyers....but get this, $16,000 tax credit!

"You reap what you sew."

It's no wonder defaults and delinquencies are soaring there.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 19:40 | 1716747 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Fuggetit

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 20:51 | 1716948 sherryw
sherryw's picture

The median price in Sydney might be $635,000 (9.2 x household income) but in the nation as a whole the median would be more like $450,000 and falling. Some high end houses in the seaside areas have fallen 40%.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 18:28 | 1716550 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

>>

As interest rates inevitably rise, that interest amount will grow.

>>

How does that happen in a world with no growth?  Why should they rise if there is no growth?  They were lowered to stimulate growth.  If it doesn't happen, the movers and shakers don't convene and say  . . . okay we have no growth, the answer must be higher rates, to worsen the deficit and suppress growth further.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 21:54 | 1717120 Pants McPants
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I think you are seeing only part of the picture.  Rates must rise because the "stimulation" must continue.  "Stimulation" requires investment, from foreign and domestic players.  Foreign investors are already drying up....and this trend will continue as the EU crisis reaches its climax and the Chinese economy inevitably reaches a peak. Rising rates are one way to generate investor interest; the more likely route is debt monetization.  Either way money loses value.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 18:31 | 1716556 kito
kito's picture

must......order.....more.....heirloom.......seeds.......

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 18:59 | 1716635 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

Bcause you reap what you sew?

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 19:28 | 1716699 phyuckyiu
phyuckyiu's picture

If I read another article telling me that miners are a good buy i'm going to sew their mouth shut, and sow them 6 ft. under. They removed their misspelled comment, I guess we got to them :) Right clicking words underlined in red is your fren.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 23:23 | 1717313 Falcon15
Falcon15's picture

Seriously, an IQ of 145 and you do not know the diference between sew and sow? Dear Lord in heaven, please forgive him for lying about his IQ and adding 100 points.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 23:54 | 1717357 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

...at least they werent "airloom" seeds he was after...

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 23:56 | 1717358 LongBallsShortBrains
LongBallsShortBrains's picture

I sew what I rip and reap what I sow..... But thats just me and I'm me and you're you.

Wed, 09/28/2011 - 00:27 | 1717403 Raymond Reason
Raymond Reason's picture

Hey genius, it's "sow".  Otherwise you can rend what you sew. 

IQ 146

 

 

Wed, 09/28/2011 - 08:53 | 1717986 JoBob
JoBob's picture

And there are those who will reap what they sow.....

 

 

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 18:32 | 1716559 espirit
espirit's picture

On mining stocks being a bargain: I'll jump just before the hard landing to mitigate the impact and grab me a handfull.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 18:35 | 1716560 sitenine
sitenine's picture

Gold stocks? Bull SHIT!! It will only take one, possibly two, more attacks via margin hikes/calls or short sellers, and the price of physical will become completely and forever unglued from paper fantasy. BTFD and stack! Nothing else will protect you. NOTHING!

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 18:41 | 1716589 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

I'd rather own physical metal rather than mining stocks - way too much risk based upon uncertain politics, energy costs, and risk of nationalization.

Tue, 09/27/2011 - 20:34 | 1716904 Central Bankster
Central Bankster's picture

Good to see the sentiment remains ever bearish.

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