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Doug Casey: Is A US-Iran War Inevitable?
Previously we presented some alternative thoughts to the mainstream misperception of the Iranian "isolation" by some of its biggest oil trading partners. Unlike others, we simply believe that the gulf nation, together with the new axis of anti-USD (as confirmed once again earlier today) is simply preparing itself for a barter based economy, or alternatively, one with commoditized intermediates. However, this ignores the likelihood of geopolitical instability caused by intervening US and Israeli interest in the region. Below are some thoughts from Doug Casey of Casey Research on the likelihood of another full blown shooting war erupting in the Persian Gulf, as well as his thoughts on how one may prepare for such a contingency.
Submitted by Louis James of Casey Research
Doug Casey: Is A US-Iran War Inevitable?
US-Iranian saber-rattling or impending shoot-out? In his usual, candid manner, contrarian investor Doug Casey talks about why he believes it's serious this time… why the US is the greatest threat to peace today… why Iran might move towards a gold standard… and what smart investors should do.
L: Doug-sama, I've heard you say you think the US is setting Iran up to be the next fall guy in the wag-the-dog show – do you think it could really come to open warfare?
Doug: Yes, I do. It could just be saber rattling during an election year, but Western powers have been provoking Iran for years now – two decades, really. I just saw another report proclaiming that Iran is likely to attack the US, which is about as absurd as the allegations Bush made about Iraq bombing the US, when he fomented that invasion. It's starting to look rather serious at this point, so I do think the odds favor actual fighting in the not-too-distant future.
L: Could they really be so stupid?
Doug: You know the answer to that one. We're dealing with criminal personalities on both sides, and criminals are basically very stupid – meaning they have an unwitting tendency to self-destruction. One thing to remember is that most of those in power in the West still believe the old economic fallacy that war is good for the economy.
L: The old broken-window fallacy. Paraphrasing Arlo Guthrie, it's hard to believe anyone could get away with making a mistake that dumb for that long.
Doug: People like those in power still suffer the delusion that it was World War II that ended the Great Depression for the US. Actually, it was only after the end of the war that the depression ended, in 1946. In his book World Economic Development: 1979 and Beyond, Herman Kahn documented long-term growth throughout the 20th century. Between 1914 to 1946 – a very tough time, with WWI, the Great Depression, and WWII – the world economy still grew at something like 1.8%. I believe real growth would have been several times as great, were it not for the state and its products. But people still believe that spending money on things that explode and kill and destroy is somehow good for the economy.
L: I suppose they think it's okay if it creates jobs here and destroys lives and livelihoods "over there." But aside from the fact that it's not safe to assume today's enemies are not capable of bringing the battle onto US soil, it still ignores the fact that you're spending money on stuff that gets destroyed – like broken windows – and that impoverishes us all. Worse, the cost is not just economic.
Doug: That's right. This coming war with Iran has the potential to turn into something resembling WWIII, with enormous consequences.
Now, it's hard to speak with any certainty on such matters, because most of what we have to go on are press reports. Governments keep most really critical facts on their doings to themselves, and what you read in the press is as likely as not just a warmed-over government press release – in other words, propaganda. Meaningless, if not actively deceptive. It is correctly said that in war, truth is the first casualty.
L: But we do have the Internet these days, with indie reporters offering coverage ignored by the talking heads in the mainstream media.
Doug: True; it doesn't keep the chattering classes honest, but it does provide some diversity of spin, from which we can try to infer what's really going on. And from all the various sources – mainstream and alternative, Western and from within the Muslim world – I have to say that it appears to me that the Iranians are not actually developing nuclear weapons.
L: Then why do they act in such aggressive and bombastic ways?
Doug: Western powers are pushing them around, telling them what they can and cannot do, and treating them like children or mental incompetents with no right of self-determination. How else would you expect them to react? They may have a collectivist theocratic regime, but it's also a proud and ancient culture.
Now, as you know, I don't think there should be any countries at all – not in the sense of the modern nation-state, and I'm certainly no fan of the Tehran regime, but Iran is a sovereign state. The Iranians resent people from other countries assuming the right to tell them what they can and cannot do with their uranium enrichment program, just as people in the US would if Iranians told them what to do with… well, anything.
L: Do you have specific data to substantiate your view that Iran is not focused on creating nuclear weapons?
Doug: I was just reading about an official report that says that Iran is still not able to enrich uranium to the level needed to make nuclear weapons.
Uranium occurs in two isotopes with half-lives long enough to make it possible to find reasonable amounts of them in the earth's crust: U235 and U238. Most of it is U238 – 99.3% – but it's the U235 that's fissile, meaning, it's the one you want for making nuclear reactors and weapons. So you have to enrich your uranium – to about 20%-30% U235 to make reactor fuel and 90% or better to make weapons.
L: That's why the Russians are able to sell "downblended" uranium from decommissioned nuclear weapons for use as reactor fuel. So, you're saying the reports indicate that Iran is not capable of enriching uranium beyond the level needed for reactors?
Doug: Yes. But again, I have to stress that reliable information is very hard to come by. Remember when the US accused Iraq of having a program to develop so-called weapons of mass destruction? Apart from the fact that, except for nuclear weapons, that term is a complete misnomer, they had no such thing. It was either lousy intelligence or outright fabrication – and I suspect the latter. So how can we trust what they tell us today? Only a fool would be so naïve.
L: Indeed.
Doug: In any event, why shouldn't Iran have nuclear weapons? I wish none of these countries had them, but they do. No one stopped China, no one stopped North Korea, Pakistan, Israel, India, France, nor any of the others in the disreputable club that have them.
L: Wasn't it too late to intervene by the time those countries announced their nuclear capabilities?
Doug: I don't think so. Israel was friendly, so Western powers looked the other way. North Korea was too rabid, so they were left alone. The other countries are too big. The cat's out of the bag at this point; any country can develop nuclear weapons, if it really wants to. But it's easier and cheaper to bribe a general – or maybe just a supply sergeant – in India, Pakistan, or Russia to get what you want.
Moreover, with the US on the rampage, prosecuting its counterproductive and unwinnable War on Terror, a lot of governments, especially ones unpopular in the West, have got to be thinking about acquiring nuclear capabilities. If Saddam had actually had nukes, the US would have left him alone, just as they've left the Kims to rot in the workers' paradise they've made out of North Korea. It makes sense for a country stricken from the US's official "nice" list and moved over to the "naughty" category to have some nukes. Everyone needs and wants a slingshot to keep the bully of the block at bay.
If you oppose nuclear proliferation, your first target should be US foreign policy, which is the biggest impetus behind the scramble to arms.
L: What about the argument that Iran would use nuclear weapons on Israel, if it had them?
Doug: That's ridiculous. It's true that just one or two nukes would turn most of Israel to glass, but it's a matter of mutually assured destruction (MAD), just as the détente between the US and USSR was. Israel is reported to have about 200 nuclear weapons, and the Iranians know it. Even if they launched a successful first strike against Israel, they would get wiped off the face of the earth in response. The regime in Iran is repressive and borderline lunatic, but they aren't that stupid. No way are they going to attack Israel with nukes. They not only cannot, but should not, be singled out for exclusion from the nuclear club.
L: But they're part of the axis of evil, don't you know?
Doug: Speaking of evil, it's evil to initiate the use of force or fraud. If Iran enriches uranium or even builds tools for war, that's not evil per se. But using force to stop them from doing something that is not in itself wrong is wrong, and that would make Iran's attackers the axis of evil.
In my mind, the US is the biggest threat to peace in the world today. I can easily imagine those in power in the US starting a war over any silly pretext, real or imagined. It could easily happen by accident at this point. Things go wrong. Maybe some young hotheads in Iran's Revolutionary Guard decide to take a boat out and attack a US frigate – launch a few RPGs at it before they're blown out of the water. Then the US feels it needs to mete out some punishment and launches a strike against the base the boat came from – which would be attacking the Iranian mainland – and the thing spins completely out of control. Could happen at the drop of a hat. Maybe the commander of a US ship has a streak of General Jack D. Ripper from Kubrick's Dr. Strangelove in him. Maybe the Russians or the Chinese – who are aiding the Iranians – mount a false-flag incident, because they want to see the US get involved in another tar baby.
L: So… another case of not just doing the wrong thing, but the exact opposite of the right thing, with economic, political, and ultimately physical world consequences.
Doug: That's right. Just look at what they're doing now, trying to isolate Iran from the world with an embargo. That could be seen as an act of war.
L: Well, wait a minute. A blockade is regarded as an act of war, but if Western countries decide to harm their own economies by not trading with Iran, that's unfriendly, but not force or fraud.
Doug: Well, it would be forcing citizens in those Western countries to pay higher prices for things, denying them the choice of buying oil from Iran if they wanted to. But I agree; that's more a matter of criminal tyranny and stupidity than an act of war. Still it sure is prodding Iran, throwing rocks at the hornets' nest, as the US did with Japan before WWII. The Japanese basically have no domestic oil production and were getting their oil from the US and the Dutch East Indies. The US cut off both supplies, backing them into a corner, leaving them little choice but an aggressive response.
At any rate, I think all of this could backfire on the US. Since the Iranians apparently can't clear deposits through New York, where international dollar trades clear, they've made a very commonsense move to cut the US out of the middle and sell their oil directly to India, without using dollars. I think other countries will follow – and then what? Iran isn't going to want bushels and bushels of rupiah or yen or whatever. I think the odds favor them turning to gold. It's said that's one of the means of payment the Indians will be using.
Gold is the logical choice and the next step in the demise of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. There's a lot of demand for the dollar to buy and sell oil. If countries stop using it, demand for the dollar would fall, at the very time the US is greatly increasing the supply of dollars. The day is coming when trillions of dollars outside the US will only be spendable inside the US. At that point it's game over for the dollar.
L: You've talked about the world going back onto a gold standard before. What do you say to the people who say that gold is a barbaric relic from the past that doesn't work in a modern economy – they can't go around with pockets full of doubloons to buy cars or chests full of treasure to buy houses…
Doug: Such people are not thinking rationally and are economically ignorant. As always, we should start with a definition: what is money? The short answer is that it's a store of wealth and medium of exchange. For reasons we've discussed and as Aristotle outlined over 2,000 years ago, gold is simply the best form of money ever adopted. And in our modern world, you don't have to physically cart the stuff around. You can, but you can also transfer ownership of physical gold electronically, through services like GoldMoney.com.
L: Note: We do endorse GoldMoney.com as a convenient and reliable way to own, trade, and transfer gold, but readers should be advised that Doug is an investor in it.
Doug: Right. I like to put my money where my mouth is.
L: Okay, so you see this trend being bullish for gold, clear enough. But most of the gold ever produced in the world still exists in purified form in various vaults around the planet. Gold doesn't get used up like silver does, so there's plenty of supply. So, would the physical need for gold as money really impact the price of gold and related equities, or would that be more a function of governments further debasing their currencies?
Doug: Well, it's estimated that there are some six billion ounces of refined gold in human possession around the world, or, somewhat less than one ounce per person. Global gold production is said to be about 80 million ounces a year, or about a 1.3% annual increase in the supply of gold. That would be the steady, "natural" rate of inflation if we were on a gold standard. The amount of various currency units in the world is increasing at a much, much faster pace than 1.3%. Nobody really knows, not even the Fed, but depending on how you define the money supply, it would take $10,000 to $50,000 – or more – per ounce to back all of the dollars in existence with gold. Whatever the correct number is, I expect gold's price in dollars to increase dramatically as the world moves closer to and eventually adopts a gold standard.
L: So, any investment implications beyond the obvious? Buy gold and silver for prudence and protection, buy gold stocks for speculative leverage?
Doug: That's the basic recipe. And diversify your holdings internationally. You can never tell when the government of your home country will have a psychotic break.
L: What do you say to the people afraid that in a world so traumatized as to go back onto a gold standard, the risk of owning any paper asset, including gold stocks, would be too high? No one will trade gold stocks for a can of dog food in a Mad Max world…
Doug: That's a valid concern. You can't eat paper, and even owning shares in a gold mine may not be of much use in a real economic cataclysm – the US government shut down gold mining during WWII as a nonessential industry. It could happen again. But that's why, as you said, we own gold for prudence, and the stocks are strictly speculative vehicles.
But let's have some perspective. The security of your stock portfolio may become the least of your concerns if the US starts a war with Iran that touches off WWIII. If that happens, the US government and population will both turn hysterical, and the whole country will be locked down like a prison. What was once America will become even more of a police state than it is now. Who knows where that would end?
So, one of the most intelligent things you can do is as I've been saying for years: diversify your assets and your physical presence internationally. Having some place you like to spend time off the beaten track, where you can ride the storm out, should be top priority for everyone who can afford it. Preparing for the worst at home should be top priority for those who can't.
L: Would you care to put odds on open war between the US and Iran?
Doug: I'd say it's highly probable within the next two to four years – say, between 50% and 75% – that an actual shooting war will break out.
L: Not much time to prepare. I sure hope all our readers are doing what they can.
Doug: Me too.
L: Right then. Thanks for your thoughts and guidance, Doug.
Doug: You're welcome. We'll talk again soon.
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It is down like a whole 8% or something the last 40yrs from 73% to 65% or something in that neighborhood even with the creation of the Euro. US paper showed in DEC 2008 when shit hits fan how the world feels about safety, trading under transaction costs, basically paying the US government to hold their money.
save the dollar from Iran!
It is just an unbelievably, disappointing shame when reality and grand doomsday ZH delusion are so divergent.
Only behind GW's assertion that Daffy was taken out because he was threatening a pan african currency in the funny as crap department.
And you're getting your info from where?
His ass.
Oh Johnny, why must you compliment his quality?
its about power. petro dollar is part of it, but not all of it.
Is it ever anywhere near the subject matter they claim?
Rothschilds Zionist would b more accurate.
@ Truth
Even George Friedman (Stratfor) said neither the USA nor Israel will attack Iran (from last weekend's Barron's).
Yes, thanks DoChen.
I saw that.
Aside from my less than glowing opinion of Stratfor, it's reall a case of only the insiders know what will happen next.
My gut-meter says something will happen, but I get a counterbalancing input from my rational core sometimes (although that rational core is inherently handicapped in an irrational world and irrational times in which we live).
p.s. - Did they ever figure out who bought all those American Airlines puts shortly before 9/11, or what happened to the gold that was allegedly store in vaults under WTC, or whether the Pentagon & DoD were able to recreate the documents and data stored in WTC?
Unbelievable! Iran is openly broadcasting their new nuclear facility on state television!
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/02/15/world/meast/iran-nuclear-rods/
When I saw this earlier today my blood boiled. These bastard terrorists have gone too far. We need to take swift action and defend Israel from these degenerate scumbags.
go fight your own war. leave the rest of us to our tv's.
"leave the rest of us to our tv's." That's not a great argument against war true brain. Maybe it's a reason.
please educate me as to why we need to defend israel.
please enlighten me as to what israel has done for us that makes them worthy of defending.
Israel is a key strategic ally in the war on terror. We need to work with our allies to defeat terrorism and spread democracy throughout the world. Terrorists hate us for our freedom, and there can never be peace until we rid the world of these degenerate monkeys.
Key strategic ally? They do nothing but get you in trouble, happily spending your tax dollars and they are not ashamed of opening fire on you, see USS Liberty.
With allies like that, who needs enemies?
WOW! It's like the TOTUS has an account on ZH.
Was it the avatar?
more like the bastard child of joe lie-berman and charles krauthammer
FREEDOM???
You are free to have yourself gropped at airports.
You are free to have intrusive agencies open your mail, listen to your phone, etc.
You are free to become a government snitch on your fellow citizen.
You are free to become a tax/debt serf.
FREEDOM? Give your head a shake! You are not free. To correctly define 'freedom' requires some modicum of intelligence, which by your comment you surly lack!
Yeah, the Iranians hate us for that. They're not very smart, eh?
/sarc off
Seriously now. Israel is like a mistress on the side: she just brings nothing to the diplomatic table but animosity, frustration, and violence. We can't afford to coddle them anymore. It's beyond comprehension. I know I'll be junked by all bleeding heart Jews, but come on now. Can we really afford this?
Phuck Israel.
You left out the Israeli "art students" and the high-fiving dudes on 9-11 across the Hudson, you remember, they were employed by a Mossad front called Urban Moving Systems. Got picked up, later mysteriously released.
israel is part of the problem my friend
It's the psychopaths in charge (PIC). All of 'em. Don't matter what country. Innocents will die some more. They don't care. But the responsibility is ultimately ours. We continue to permit this BS. Don't matter what country.
Paraphrased but quite close:
"The first step to a warless world is a youth that bravely refuses military service"
~ Einstein
MDB has a broken /sarc/ button........right, guys? Right? If not, then TD needs to adjust the 'requirements' (I was told I was cool enough to be allowed on-board) back to 2010 levels.
Took you some time... but as you see, it always generates some worthwhile discussion ;)
As far as I remember Israel introduced world to terrorism.
Russian anarchists in 19th C, if memory serves.
I'm talking about policy not about nihilists, ok?
Before the French Revolution, terror was a psychological state of dread experienced by individuals. Only during and after the Revolution, the Jacobins introduced mass terror as a means of intimidation for the achievement of political goals. Since its beginning as a political tool during the "Terreur" period in France, terror has been a state policy used by extremist ideologues to maintain their power, not to achieve it. Radical minorities pretending to represent the silent majorities have always used synthetic terror, i.e., false flags, agents provocateurs etc.
Israel is a key strategic ally ... defend from "terrorists" ...
We're still waiting for a legitimate reason.
If Isreal is helping us oppose islamic terror then why are Jews and Jewish groups so heavily involved in promoting mass immigration of Muslims into Europe and America. That isn't exactly a friendly gesture!
Neither was creating Hamas, in order to "oppose" the PLO, which they also created.
Read about Albert Pike, who wrote a letter about the political basis for the three world wars. The first two have already gone according to plan. WWIII is being rushed into production before too many sheeple wake up. The puppetmasters are trying to create a far-right backlash which will ultimately lead the Zionist puppet states in Europe and America to face off against the Muslims for a war of total annihilation. After much suffering, the world will be ready to accept "the universal manifestation of the pure doctrine of Lucifer". http://www.threeworldwars.com/albert-pike2.htm
Still falling for that load of bull? War on terror? Really?
If you are, you're a tool. If you aren't you're a troll.
Wauw this is where you really shine!
AnAnonymous, if you're watching, this is how it's done.
So.
Degenerate Monkeys?!?!?!?!
That's racist.
i can't tell if your being sarcastic or really do believe what you write.
Israel is a key strategic ally in this war of terror. We need to work with our allies to spread terrorism and defeat democracy throughout the world. Freedom hates us for our terrorists, and there can never be peace until the world is rid of us as degenerate monkeys.
There, fixed it for ya.
Terrorism is a tactic. You can't win a war against a tactic. You do realize that don't you MDB numb nuts?
The american pro-israel lobbiest provide the re-election funding for most of our elected politicians?
Read Charlie Wilison's War by Crile, or go watch the movie......
http://www.csulb.edu/~kmacd/books-Preface.html
Wow, that far over the top and you still got bites?
Wonders never cease.
Overacting is bullish in this pharma-tose society
This might be some of your best work yet!
Kudos!
...and some huzzah thrown in for gud measure.
So.
Your trolling has become transparent to me, but still works on most of the others. Bravo.
@danny_Z & Bang Bang Bitchez.
i think you may be a pirate
+1, BiCheZ!
Busy Dad. Damn you are hard to hunt for! The range is lowered on eur!
129 or bust? L0L!!!
i remembered! diplomacy was never my strong suit, Y/C...
We have a top. I don't want to give anything away. 1.25
Is anyone in US Government enough stupid to introduce gold standard , after they lost so much gold during 70's with trade deficit .America is country of lazy nation and gov. market manipulators as such is not fit for gold standard. So analysit should stop laying around this crap about gold standard and 50000$ per ounce.
Pretorian,
Don't know what sand dune your from, but you know nothing about the work ethics of true Americans.
Isn't the US the fattest nation on earth, both literally and figuratively? i'm pretty sure drawing a corrolation between obiesity and laziness is not a stretch...he's actually not far off
There is a correlation between slovenly misspellers and the obesity of fat-heads.
Propaganda from China ?
Classic with no a's, an's or the's (because they don't have them woids now, do they !)
It's more blobbing up, the eternal inherent nature of Chinese citizen cesspoolism.
PRE-TOR-IAN? Are you hunting the Holy Grail? Oh, it's the lost link?
Pretorian, you must not be old enough to recall when we did well enough on the Gold Standard.
If Gold 50K per ounce that means silver 1000.
I for one would be fucking overjoyed to ease the Nation's Debts and our own by flipping a few coins to sell and retire said debts.
Where have you been, under a rock?
The Deficit only got bigger, has nothing to do with Gold.. No one can manipulate the markets unless it's Waddel's fat finger. Hell whole nations fall like Greece and maybe all of old europe it's new Euro... Market will keep chugging.
We are not so lazy as you think. All around I see people doing what they can with what they have.
The Boondocks has a perfect analogy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hY5zuerWj_E
The rest of the scene: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jxt3KOsGlI&feature=related
How can this keep happening?
Well... sometimes THIS is what it happens:
US police officer kills Marine in front of his children in California
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QUZa-CZ2RQ&feature=player_embedded
whoa
Weed kills
It is actually very simple. One country, Iran, is threatening to eliminate another nation - Israel - from the face of the earth. What is ironic is that the threatened nation - Israel - could have long ago eradicated Iran from this Earth but has chosen restraint. Who are the barbarians? History has taught us to listen to what fanatical leaders say- they mean it. Iran will and should be attacked before they gain the bomb and the west and every other sane country will be very happy after it is done. I hope I am wrong because many innocent people will die but to sit around and let madmen in Iran have nuclear weapons is insane.
We should send Ron Paul and his nerdy supporters to the frontline in Iran as a punishment for their cowardice.
sarc?
Listen, buddy, the problematic is quite simple.
On one side you have a foreign country which openly threatens, repeatedly, our security and our international interests, insulting us and ridiculing us by the same occasion. On the other side you have puny computer nerds among us who oppose ANY war, by "principle", even if we as a Nation risk immense suffereing and death as a result of their cowardice and the "fear, uncertainty and doubt" propaganda they disseminate on the Internet and other medias.
Sixty years ago they would have been put in prison or even executed for high treason to their own country, but today we can't do it anymore because "mentalities" have evolved.
So I propose a fair solution, which is to force them to fight. I don't give them 2 minutes with a M4 in their hands before they start crying for Mummy though.
"On one side you have a foreign country which openly threatens, repeatedly, our security and our international interests, insulting us and ridiculing us by the same occasion."
I don´t know how to say that in Farsi but I´m pretty sure most Iranians feel the same way.
Most Iranians would love to come to the US and raise their kids.
I´m not entirely convinced about that. Leaving Iran is not that hard a task and entering the USA sure as hell isn´t... So why aren´t they appearing in droves? Because they don´t want to...
Wow, that's exactly wrong.
Yeah, well... I kinda live in a country filled to the brim with Iranian refugees so I´m assuming that what´s "exactly wrong" is the part about how hard it is to get in to the USA. Wich from what I hear is quite easy, both leaglly and illegally.
Care to expand?
most iranians would love to raise their kids in peace, right where they are.
The smarter the comment, the more thumbs down it gets.
But Israeli billionares are not investing in US farmland (afaik) but are choosing to do so in a place that may be spared from fallout in WWIII, New Zealand.
As an aside, that means also that the destruction of Israel is not going to solve anything.
HamY I think you forgot to take your meds this morning.
Hamy is addicted to RED ARROWS.
Hamy you doofus, just how do they threaten our security and international interests?
Your simplistic retort excludes the protective behavior the udder brothers.
They wanna take away our JFC (Jewish Fried Chicken) and nationalize our healthcare system.
JFC - if we get too many more Hamy or MDB clones on here - ZH is going to appear on the surface like a Fox News blog.
Don't worry it's transitional!
Hey, why don´t you go? Aeroflot will take you from NYC to Teheran for less than 500 bucks. Once in Teheran I can´t imagine an AK-47 is hard to come by and then...IT´S ON!!
For the sake of this blog and all it´s readers: do it. Today.
Forgot the monitoring: /sarc off/
You must be talking about all those US military veterans he'll be commiserating with this coming weekend in DC. /sarc
Honestly Hamy, before you reappeared people were saying you were a pretty good troll back in the day, but I don't see it.
Ron Paul served in the military and the National Guard
So did Lee Harvey Oswald, so?
Oh, are you referring to the active military people who give 70% of all donations to presidential candidates to Ron Paul ? Are the guys and gals who have 'been there, done that' the ones youre calling cowards ?
You probably never served in the military.
As one who has served in the US military, and comes from a military family ('Army brat') I disagree with this statement by Henry Kissinger:
"military men are dumb, stupid animals to be used as pawns in foreign policy"
Active military man and women support Ron Paul because they're not stupid - - - and don't make stupid comments on ZH.
Youre not Rick Santorum are you ?
Oops, I allowed myself to get sucked into that vortex of sarcasism, again, by you two..
Harumph..
hope you're leading the charge.
A. Iran never said that.
B. Iran hasn't started a war in 400 years.
C. Israel is in a state of constant war with its neighbors.
But hey, feel free to keep drinking that Kool-aid. Hope it doesn't turn bitter when your children are being fed into that meat grinder.
Facts seem to be in short supply these days. Much easier to win your argument when you make up a really good basis that everyone can agree on. WMDs in Iraq. Iran will attack Israel the first chance it gets. Etc
No Iran really hasn't been conducting a low level war against the US via proxy for decades.
It is all imaginary.
Aslam Alekem Brothers.
Even if allegations that Iran supports Hezbollah/Hamas in Syria and Lebanon are true, this should still be construed as defensive attempts to protect their national sovereignty. US/Israel are the ones who started the black ops war directly with the coup against Mossadegh.
US is it's own worst enemy...
But it's sure working overtime (and over time) to create more (enemies)....
A. Iran is a DIRECT AND PRIMARY supporter (through finance, arms and PERSONNEL) of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is the Iranian proxy in the fight against Israel. Hezbollah's stated position is the eradication of the Jewish state. If I don't say I want you dead, but i then donate millions of dollars and supply arms and personnel to an organization dedicated to killing you, what does that say? Are you REALLY that blind?
B. You are MAKING SHIT UP HERE. From the 1600's - the late 1800's, Iran, under various ruling dynasties conquered and started wars ALL OVER THE DAMN PLACE. FFS READ SOME HISTORY. In the 20th century it finally came under rational secular rule with the Shah's, who kept things generally peaceful until their overthrow in the 70's which introduced the latest batch of crazies.
C. That's because its neighbors keep attacking it? The Arabs LOST the war(s). You don't have to like it, but the victor makes the rules. The Sovreignty of Nations is established and protected ONLY by strength on the battlefield. Nothing else has mattered in History.
Kool-aid?!?!? You're GD SWIMMING IN IT.
nothing else?? like central banks usurping sovereignty like a milkshake?
Petrodollah verses Hezbollah.
There, fixed it.
Which will lead to war....HENCE MILITARY POWER IS THE ULTIMATE ARBITER OF SOVREIGNTY.
Really, this isn't hard.
Iran is a DIRECT AND PRIMARY supporter ...
You mean like USA is a direct and primary supporter of Al-CIA-da?
Yes...we are direct supporters of lots of shit.....what does that have to do with the Iran-Israeli discussion?
Nothing more than Hezbollah has to do with it.
You're trying to expand the debate to include marginally, if at all, related factors.
We're talking about the Iran -Israeli relationship. Not the CIA relationship to Al-Qaeda or the US using AlQaeda as a proxy during the cold war.
Learn to focus on a topic.
or the US using AlQaeda as a proxy during the cold war.
...and 9/11 (as Bush claimed)? You're admitting our government was supporting the "terrorist org" behind 9/11? Our CIA essentially was behind it to one degree or another?
But back on point, I hope Russia turns Israel to glass & ash. It would make my day.
Eisenhorn tried to muddy the waters by saying:
You're the one that brought up hezbollah.
That's it, keep backpedaling Mr. Megaphoney.
If the US supports the CIA, which initiated an offensive black ops war against iran, then that Iran supports Hezbollah in defense of their national sovereignty is legitimate.
Now go to the store and fetch yourself some intellectual honesty, don't come back until you got some.
The US was a direct and primary supporter of al-Qaeda AND Saddam's regime.
Apologies, it has only been 274 years since they started a war, not 400. L O FUCKING L.
Ri~ght. It's those damned Arabs. Who would have thought stripping them of all their rights and property and bottling them up in ghettos would make people angry. Who would have thought murdering woman and children by running over them with armored bulldozers would have consequences.
Yes, kool-aid. Israel gets a free pass on fascism because they got oppressed 70 years ago. Fuck that, and fuck you.
Persians =\= Arabs
Zionist European Ashkenazi Jews created Hezbollah when they forced all the Palestinians from the homes their families had for a thousand years. They thought the refugees would forget eventually. So far they've been wrong. They haven't forgotten.
Come on. For reference, please list any war that Iran started in the last hundred years. Here's my list that Israel started in the last 60 years, off the top of my head: '48 Arab war, the '56 suez crisis, the '67 War, the '82 lebanon war, the '06 lebanon war, and the '08 gaza genocide.
Moreover, Even if allegations that Iran supports Hezbollah/Hamas in Syria and Lebanon are true, this should still be construed as defensive attempts to protect their national sovereignty. US/Israel are the ones who started the black ops war directly with the coup against Mossadegh.
Now if you're a troll, get the fuck out or be ready to present some solid arguments. This isn't a place for kindergarten rhetoric. If you're not ill-intentioned, however, I apologize for implying you're a troll, and I would advise you examine to consistency of your belief system. It reeks of cognitive dissonance and western propaganda manipulation.
Isn't it kool that Israel was behind the creation of Hamas?
Only if you can believe Ha'aretz....
http://my.telegraph.co.uk/wendymann/wendymann/6094251/Israel_Created_Hamas/
Yeah, and like HamWanker said "they go around insulting people too"
So let's get this fucking bombing thing started already.
/sarc
and the crowd responded DOWN WITH AMERICA
because they misunderstood farsi too.
Get your head out of the hoodie. You don't hear so good
[or see so good you red arrow magnet you].
If you check, it's pretty clear what they're yelling is
DOWN WITH PANEFUL
ur watching too much fox news..........
israel is threatening to wipe iran off the map
fuck, just reverse where you put iran and israel in your comment to get an intelligent remark
and next time rawsienna, read the article before you comment
read the article. The regime in Iran sent children to fight Iraqi tanks , they routinely torture and kill their own citizens, rig elections, have no respect for basic human rights. Why do we expect them to think rationally. They will gladly sacrifice 6mm Iranians for 6mm Jews. Why is that so difficult to understand? I sincerely hope it does not come to an attack but can you honestly say that you trust that the current regime in Iran -not the majority of good citizens of Iran that tried to vote the idiots out - to act rationally?
I don't trust the current regime in America. My concern for the Eastern Hemisphere stops right there. We have our own problems and need to stay the fuck out of everyone else's bullshit affairs.
Everything America needs is in the Western Hemisphere. Let's focus on helping our God Damn neighbors!
edit: Apologies for the cursing.
i would trade those 12 million for a bit of peace and quiet
LoL!!!!
I think you might find Rawsienna that many people would say that if you replaced each reference to 'Iran' in your post with 'Israel' instead, then it would read just as accurately.
Israel is far from innocent or squeaky clean when it comes to abuses of human rights, war crimes, persecution of another culture, oppression of another people, illegal occupation of neighboring lands, refusal to comply with international law, refusal to comply with US directives/mandates/resolutions... one could easily continue on with this list, I hope you get the general point (though somehow I doubt it).
Oh and by the way... if you're not some 'Far-Right Pro-Israeli/Anti-Defamation League' troll, but in fact just a normal, everyday punter who's fallen victim to relentless spin, lies and propaganda of America's pathetic excuse for an 'Unbiased, Uncorrupted, Non-Agenda Based' MSM... then I suggest you brush up on your Farsi and actually take the time to sit down and read the speech in question, that you draw upon/reference with such dogged fervour, your ill-informed and dangerously ignorant 'Wipe Israel from the face of the Earth' comments from. I think you'll find that there's a gaping chasm in the intended context and interpretation between 'The State of Israel' and the correctly translated 'Zionist Regime'. The only downside to this... it's extremely hard to back the correct translation and the correct speech into a justification for an illegal pre-emptive strike against another sovereign nation who's clearly no threat whatsoever to the State of Israel... of which I myself happen to firmly believe has every right to exist, flourish and thrive like any other recognized nation or people with whom she shares boarders, history and interests with... BUT IN PEACE... NOT AS THE PETULANT NEIGHBORHOOD BULLY.
In case you're interested
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ogxeTxD_kZ4&feature=related
Israel is far from squeaky clean but lets look at value systems. And I assume the references to the fake Holocaust was misinterpreted also. I am not a apologist for Israel. Far from it. THe regime in IRan, Syria and North Korea is pure evil. They can not be trusted. Look what Assad is doing in Syria. Look what Iran did to its own citizens just last year just to put down peaceful protest. Hitler prepared for war while asking for peace. Do you seriously think Iran or Hamas seeks peace while teaching their children to look forward to the day where there is no Israel. Tell me, do you honestly believe that if magically Israel just decided to unilaterally disarm and go back to 1967 borders they would survive a single day? I knew my post would be unpopular but that was the point. The truth is that if the Arabs and the Iranians wanted true peace with Israel that could have it in a day.
Led by Saudi, they have consistently offered peace within the '67 borders. Isreal is not interested.
if the Arabs and the Iranians wanted true peace with Israel that could have it in a day.
You really need to take some time and dig into this. You are so misled/ misinformed.
America does most of that to, especially the sacrifice of Americans in the name of Jews.
Can I haz regime change, plz?
rawsienna bleated:
So you're saying they have a lot in common with the United States.
If you think there is moral equivalence between the US and Iran you are seriously misguided.
I wouldn't want to imply a moral equivalence between the US and Iran, since Iran has occupied the moral high ground in comparison to America for at least the last ten years, if not the last sixty.
perhaps you should go raise your children there. See how they like it. Maybe send her to a peaceful protest so she can get arrested and raped over and over again in a moral iranian jail cell. That is what free speech buys you in Iran.
Is it true that the government still executes prisioners in the USA? Is there really a guy there who is employed as an executioner? How does that read on a CV? It sounds barbaric to the rest of the civilised world but there you go!
True, the US is far more aggressive, imperialistic, paranoid, and dangerous.
silver
This would be 100% correct if you switched the names around.
Sounds like you fell for the old 'wipe them off the face of the earth quote' b.s. Do a little research and you'll see that was a misquote and purposely reported falsely. Also research 'Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty' and who has signed it, and who hasn't. Research who currently has nuclear weapons in the region and the missiles to deliver them. Research the right of a nation to develop a peaceful nuclear energy program for the purposes of generating electricity and medical applications. And even look into what it takes for nuclear materials used in power reactors to be converted for weapons applications. Research how early the Bush administration had decided to invade Iraq (pre 9/11), the fraud of 'weapons of mass destruction', and the fraud of 'Iraqis throwing Kuwati babies out of incubators'. Pull up US 'Defense' Secretary Paneta's recent admission on t.v. that Iran is not currently in the process of developing a nuclear weapon. Check out how Iran had offered at one time to put all their nuclear materials completely under the control of a neutral nation, and how much they have allowed nuclear inspectors into the country . . even recently. Many people who are encouraged to look into these matters deeper won't do so. They already think they 'know' that the Iranian crazy leader threatened to wipe Israel off the map. Afterall, that's what Limbaugh or Hannity or whoever says. They are parrots repeating what theyve been told.
This isn't about 'terrorism' or a bogus 'nuclear threat'. Its about oil, somewhat. Its also about the dollar, somewhat. At the heart of it is the desire to control the region which is right at the heart of the Eurasian land mass. It is about controlling that region so that Europe, Russia, China, India, and Japan may not come together in a mutually beneficial manner which would threaten Anglo-American elites economics and military dominance around the globe. (Nevermind that such co-operation might be very beneficial for many millions of people around the world.)Look how pipeline projects have been blocked, and military bases set up to surround and isolate some of the players - including Russia. Sir Halford Mackinder wrote about what has been referred to as the 'Great Game'. Kissinger and Brezinski are just a few of the geopolitical insiders who have studied Mackinder and apply his principles. While most people just want to live a good life and care for their families, these psychopaths playing their 'Great Game' of Empire and Full Spectrum Dominance of the entire world may very well get most of humanity killed. Dont take my word for any of this. Just research the subjects I've mentioned for yourself, and think for yourself.
Sounds like you fell for the old 'wipe them off the face of the earth quote' b.s. Do a little research and you'll see that was a misquote and purposely reported falsely. Also research 'Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty' and who has signed it, and who hasn't. Research who currently has nuclear weapons in the region and the missiles to deliver them. Research the right of a nation to develop a peaceful nuclear energy program for the purposes of generating electricity and medical applications. And even look into what it takes for nuclear materials used in power reactors to be converted for weapons applications. Research how early the Bush administration had decided to invade Iraq (pre 9/11), the fraud of 'weapons of mass destruction', and the fraud of 'Iraqis throwing Kuwati babies out of incubators'. Pull up US 'Defense' Secretary Paneta's recent admission on t.v. that Iran is not currently in the process of developing a nuclear weapon. Check out how Iran had offered at one time to put all their nuclear materials completely under the control of a neutral nation, and how much they have allowed nuclear inspectors into the country . . even recently. Many people who are encouraged to look into these matters deeper won't do so. They already think they 'know' that the Iranian crazy leader threatened to wipe Israel off the map. Afterall, that's what Limbaugh or Hannity or whoever says. They are parrots repeating what theyve been told.
This isn't about 'terrorism' or a bogus 'nuclear threat'. Its about oil, somewhat. Its also about the dollar, somewhat. At the heart of it is the desire to control the region which is right at the heart of the Eurasian land mass. It is about controlling that region so that Europe, Russia, China, India, and Japan may not come together in a mutually beneficial manner which would threaten Anglo-American elites economics and military dominance around the globe. (Nevermind that such co-operation might be very beneficial for many millions of people around the world.)Look how pipeline projects have been blocked, and military bases set up to surround and isolate some of the players - including Russia. Sir Halford Mackinder wrote about what has been referred to as the 'Great Game'. Kissinger and Brezinski are just a few of the geopolitical insiders who have studied Mackinder and apply his principles. While most people just want to live a good life and care for their families, these psychopaths playing their 'Great Game' of Empire and Full Spectrum Dominance of the entire world may very well get most of humanity killed. Dont take my word for any of this. Just research the subjects I've mentioned for yourself, and think for yourself.
Well said, and worth saying twice.
Thanks.
Opps. Sorry bout the double post - - my internet is acting strange this evening.
also the false quote is actuallly wipe them off 'the face of the map' - - its still b.s. and an American phrase not what an Iranian would use (according to my research)
One thing that I have come across when talking to some people and urging them to examine their assumptions about these subjects . . is the role of religion. This was a blindspot for me. I'm a 'follow the evidence even if hurts' kinda guy. - - - Some people will never recognize or even look at the evidence, because it runs counter to these deep beliefs that they personally identify with.
Absolutely agree. As a point of further interest, this identification with thought and belief systems is the prime characteric of the egoic level of consciousness. It is quite literally the source of all the problems we have been going through, both individually and collectively.
Once you're conscious of this, you might be interested in studying what has been repeatedly said over and over about egoic and non-egoic consciousness, which will help you root out the weeds of ego affecting your cognitive potential as well as successfully navigating conversations with other beings that are subject to this state of mind.
So if you're open to suggestions... from your few words you strike me as a rationalist, so I would recommend you to look into Jiddu Krishnamurti who is fearfully efficient at a step-by-step rational exploration of the concept of ego and its implications. You can find lots of awesome 1-hour interviews of him on youtube, and any single one of them is worth entire seasons of any popular series. Eckhart Tolle which might also very well resonate with you.
For the record, I still see Buddha's message as the strongest and purest of all, but it does suffer from 3000 years of cultural, linguistic and interpretation drift, so it helps to have some conceptual background before delving in his truth, while Osho as my favorite modern multicultural master does depend a lot on the intuitive side. Exploring these ideas might also lead you to see the worth of spirituality as compared religion in its contemporary incarnation, which is quite rightly held in contempt.
Think for yourself posted:
Check out what this cat had to say about thought and belief:
John Trudell - An Identity Crisis As Human Beingshttp://youtu.be/-IvPGsz-L2U (14 minutes)
Think vs. beLIEve..."If you believe that means you don't know" (around 7 or 8 minutes into the video)
Thank you. That's a great video. Please note that I was not equating thought and belief in my affirmation above.
As a NB, what I was meaning above is identification with thought AND identification with belief systems - both of them are prime characteristic of the egoic level of consciousness. Because the ego, which is not endowed with any reality, creates its substantiality by identifying itself with concepts, with thoughts, and this identification comes out of the relationship it has with the different concepts. It is not comfortable with the undefined, because the undefined has no relation to it. Hence the arising of belief as a way to define how it stands in respect to any given topic, even if it does not know it. It must have a position, if it is to perceive and to judge.
It is the same with knowing. Rare are the things we really do know, but the mind, the ego, like to think it does. Standing on this self-proclaimed altar of knowing (or thinking it does), it gives a solidity to its perceived experience, it justifies its interpretation of it, and this allows it to perceive itself as "right". This is identification with thought.
Many have pointed out that identification with thought is just as harmful as identification with belief. Both of these rob the reality of experience and try to make a pedestal of it to stand their interpretation of experience on. By doing so the spontaneity and flowingness of experience is lost.
"No religion has been courageous enough to say, "We know this much, but there is much we don't know; perhaps in the future we may know it. And beyond that, there is a space which is going to remain unknowable forever."
A true religion will have the humbleness to admit that only a few things are known, much more is unknown, and something will always remain unknowable. That "something" is the target of the whole spiritual search. You cannot make it an object of knowledge, but you can experience it, you can drink of it, you can have the taste of it - it is existential.
All these religions have been against doubt. They have been really afraid of doubt. Only an impotent intellect can be afraid of doubt; otherwise doubt is a challenge, an opportunity to inquire.
There is doubt, and doubt is not destroyed by believing. Doubt is destroyed by experiencing.
They say, believe. I say, explore. They say, don't doubt; I say, doubt to the very end, till you arrive and know and feel and experience. Then there is no need to repress doubt; it evaporates by itself. Then there is no need for you to believe.
You have to be again innocent, ignorant, not knowing anything, so that the questions can start arising again. Again the inquiry becomes alive, and with the inquiry becoming alive you cannot vegetate. Then life becomes an exploration, an adventure."
~ Osho
Thank you. I've read Krishnamurti and have the majority of his books. He was a genius and a great soul.
No threat has been delivered. Pure propaganda.
Fuck off, Zionist troll.
Amazing how the Thumbs downers hate truth.
Israel was established so that the Holocaust must never happen again. Only this time they seem preparing for war on all fronts and quite willing to take the fight to the enemy to save themselves.
Compared to Israel, we are a Nation that hugs the SNAP cards that keep us warm at night.
Doug: That's ridiculous. It's true that just one or two nukes would turn most of Israel to glass, but it's a matter of mutually assured destruction (MAD), just as the détente between the US and USSR was. Israel is reported to have about 200 nuclear weapons, and the Iranians know it. Even if they launched a successful first strike against Israel, they would get wiped off the face of the earth in response. The regime in Iran is repressive and borderline lunatic, but they aren't that stupid. No way are they going to attack Israel with nukes. They not only cannot, but should not, be singled out for exclusion from the nuclear club.
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That's a dangerous assumption that all of the Iranian "I'm going to wipe you off the face of the earth to usher in the 12th Imam" talk is all BS.
Also, Doug says: "but Iran is a sovereign state. The Iranians resent people from other countries assuming the right to tell them what they can and cannot do with their uranium enrichment program, just as people in the US would if Iranians told them what to do with… well, anything."
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That may be true, but we don't declare "Hey Canada, we're going to nuke you off the face of the earth with our nukes."
I'm no fool...I realize that the military industrial complex dictates a lot of our foreign policy, but Casey's latest interview smacks of half-truths and omissions. Just my 2 cents.
That's a GOOD subject. Now, be sure to encourage your kids to enlist. You too, after they all die.
So, the whole ushering in the whole 12th Imam thing was never said? Iran has not called for the total destruction of the U.S.? I'm aware of the power of the U.S. defense industry and the misinformation campaigns they wage to start wars. I'm a critical thinker. Wow, I dare point out that Casey's comments merit analysis make me a MSM kool-aid drinking drone? STFU. My point was, Casey's comments should be viewed in context. You can't extend the naive branch of "please be our friend" to a regime that is run by a bunch of hard core Islamist US-haters. Anyone that thinks differently is naive. There is a big difference between Finland acquiring nukes and Iran acquiring nukes. Anyone disagree? I get the fact that the world is not viewed in black and white. There are shades of gray.
Yes, I disagree. And I think differently & I'm far from naive.
You are free to pursue your shades of gray in your own way and on your own time. Don't think negotiations will work? Fine, grab that broad brush and paint away. Though you claim to understand and - chuckle - call yourself a critical thinker your words demonstrate otherwise.
As was said above, go ahead and enlist. Better yet, become a mercenary and fight on your own dime.
Yes, Pants McPants, you are the arbiter of who is and who isn't a critical thinker. Free your mind.