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Doug Casey: Is A US-Iran War Inevitable?
Previously we presented some alternative thoughts to the mainstream misperception of the Iranian "isolation" by some of its biggest oil trading partners. Unlike others, we simply believe that the gulf nation, together with the new axis of anti-USD (as confirmed once again earlier today) is simply preparing itself for a barter based economy, or alternatively, one with commoditized intermediates. However, this ignores the likelihood of geopolitical instability caused by intervening US and Israeli interest in the region. Below are some thoughts from Doug Casey of Casey Research on the likelihood of another full blown shooting war erupting in the Persian Gulf, as well as his thoughts on how one may prepare for such a contingency.
Submitted by Louis James of Casey Research
Doug Casey: Is A US-Iran War Inevitable?
US-Iranian saber-rattling or impending shoot-out? In his usual, candid manner, contrarian investor Doug Casey talks about why he believes it's serious this time… why the US is the greatest threat to peace today… why Iran might move towards a gold standard… and what smart investors should do.
L: Doug-sama, I've heard you say you think the US is setting Iran up to be the next fall guy in the wag-the-dog show – do you think it could really come to open warfare?
Doug: Yes, I do. It could just be saber rattling during an election year, but Western powers have been provoking Iran for years now – two decades, really. I just saw another report proclaiming that Iran is likely to attack the US, which is about as absurd as the allegations Bush made about Iraq bombing the US, when he fomented that invasion. It's starting to look rather serious at this point, so I do think the odds favor actual fighting in the not-too-distant future.
L: Could they really be so stupid?
Doug: You know the answer to that one. We're dealing with criminal personalities on both sides, and criminals are basically very stupid – meaning they have an unwitting tendency to self-destruction. One thing to remember is that most of those in power in the West still believe the old economic fallacy that war is good for the economy.
L: The old broken-window fallacy. Paraphrasing Arlo Guthrie, it's hard to believe anyone could get away with making a mistake that dumb for that long.
Doug: People like those in power still suffer the delusion that it was World War II that ended the Great Depression for the US. Actually, it was only after the end of the war that the depression ended, in 1946. In his book World Economic Development: 1979 and Beyond, Herman Kahn documented long-term growth throughout the 20th century. Between 1914 to 1946 – a very tough time, with WWI, the Great Depression, and WWII – the world economy still grew at something like 1.8%. I believe real growth would have been several times as great, were it not for the state and its products. But people still believe that spending money on things that explode and kill and destroy is somehow good for the economy.
L: I suppose they think it's okay if it creates jobs here and destroys lives and livelihoods "over there." But aside from the fact that it's not safe to assume today's enemies are not capable of bringing the battle onto US soil, it still ignores the fact that you're spending money on stuff that gets destroyed – like broken windows – and that impoverishes us all. Worse, the cost is not just economic.
Doug: That's right. This coming war with Iran has the potential to turn into something resembling WWIII, with enormous consequences.
Now, it's hard to speak with any certainty on such matters, because most of what we have to go on are press reports. Governments keep most really critical facts on their doings to themselves, and what you read in the press is as likely as not just a warmed-over government press release – in other words, propaganda. Meaningless, if not actively deceptive. It is correctly said that in war, truth is the first casualty.
L: But we do have the Internet these days, with indie reporters offering coverage ignored by the talking heads in the mainstream media.
Doug: True; it doesn't keep the chattering classes honest, but it does provide some diversity of spin, from which we can try to infer what's really going on. And from all the various sources – mainstream and alternative, Western and from within the Muslim world – I have to say that it appears to me that the Iranians are not actually developing nuclear weapons.
L: Then why do they act in such aggressive and bombastic ways?
Doug: Western powers are pushing them around, telling them what they can and cannot do, and treating them like children or mental incompetents with no right of self-determination. How else would you expect them to react? They may have a collectivist theocratic regime, but it's also a proud and ancient culture.
Now, as you know, I don't think there should be any countries at all – not in the sense of the modern nation-state, and I'm certainly no fan of the Tehran regime, but Iran is a sovereign state. The Iranians resent people from other countries assuming the right to tell them what they can and cannot do with their uranium enrichment program, just as people in the US would if Iranians told them what to do with… well, anything.
L: Do you have specific data to substantiate your view that Iran is not focused on creating nuclear weapons?
Doug: I was just reading about an official report that says that Iran is still not able to enrich uranium to the level needed to make nuclear weapons.
Uranium occurs in two isotopes with half-lives long enough to make it possible to find reasonable amounts of them in the earth's crust: U235 and U238. Most of it is U238 – 99.3% – but it's the U235 that's fissile, meaning, it's the one you want for making nuclear reactors and weapons. So you have to enrich your uranium – to about 20%-30% U235 to make reactor fuel and 90% or better to make weapons.
L: That's why the Russians are able to sell "downblended" uranium from decommissioned nuclear weapons for use as reactor fuel. So, you're saying the reports indicate that Iran is not capable of enriching uranium beyond the level needed for reactors?
Doug: Yes. But again, I have to stress that reliable information is very hard to come by. Remember when the US accused Iraq of having a program to develop so-called weapons of mass destruction? Apart from the fact that, except for nuclear weapons, that term is a complete misnomer, they had no such thing. It was either lousy intelligence or outright fabrication – and I suspect the latter. So how can we trust what they tell us today? Only a fool would be so naïve.
L: Indeed.
Doug: In any event, why shouldn't Iran have nuclear weapons? I wish none of these countries had them, but they do. No one stopped China, no one stopped North Korea, Pakistan, Israel, India, France, nor any of the others in the disreputable club that have them.
L: Wasn't it too late to intervene by the time those countries announced their nuclear capabilities?
Doug: I don't think so. Israel was friendly, so Western powers looked the other way. North Korea was too rabid, so they were left alone. The other countries are too big. The cat's out of the bag at this point; any country can develop nuclear weapons, if it really wants to. But it's easier and cheaper to bribe a general – or maybe just a supply sergeant – in India, Pakistan, or Russia to get what you want.
Moreover, with the US on the rampage, prosecuting its counterproductive and unwinnable War on Terror, a lot of governments, especially ones unpopular in the West, have got to be thinking about acquiring nuclear capabilities. If Saddam had actually had nukes, the US would have left him alone, just as they've left the Kims to rot in the workers' paradise they've made out of North Korea. It makes sense for a country stricken from the US's official "nice" list and moved over to the "naughty" category to have some nukes. Everyone needs and wants a slingshot to keep the bully of the block at bay.
If you oppose nuclear proliferation, your first target should be US foreign policy, which is the biggest impetus behind the scramble to arms.
L: What about the argument that Iran would use nuclear weapons on Israel, if it had them?
Doug: That's ridiculous. It's true that just one or two nukes would turn most of Israel to glass, but it's a matter of mutually assured destruction (MAD), just as the détente between the US and USSR was. Israel is reported to have about 200 nuclear weapons, and the Iranians know it. Even if they launched a successful first strike against Israel, they would get wiped off the face of the earth in response. The regime in Iran is repressive and borderline lunatic, but they aren't that stupid. No way are they going to attack Israel with nukes. They not only cannot, but should not, be singled out for exclusion from the nuclear club.
L: But they're part of the axis of evil, don't you know?
Doug: Speaking of evil, it's evil to initiate the use of force or fraud. If Iran enriches uranium or even builds tools for war, that's not evil per se. But using force to stop them from doing something that is not in itself wrong is wrong, and that would make Iran's attackers the axis of evil.
In my mind, the US is the biggest threat to peace in the world today. I can easily imagine those in power in the US starting a war over any silly pretext, real or imagined. It could easily happen by accident at this point. Things go wrong. Maybe some young hotheads in Iran's Revolutionary Guard decide to take a boat out and attack a US frigate – launch a few RPGs at it before they're blown out of the water. Then the US feels it needs to mete out some punishment and launches a strike against the base the boat came from – which would be attacking the Iranian mainland – and the thing spins completely out of control. Could happen at the drop of a hat. Maybe the commander of a US ship has a streak of General Jack D. Ripper from Kubrick's Dr. Strangelove in him. Maybe the Russians or the Chinese – who are aiding the Iranians – mount a false-flag incident, because they want to see the US get involved in another tar baby.
L: So… another case of not just doing the wrong thing, but the exact opposite of the right thing, with economic, political, and ultimately physical world consequences.
Doug: That's right. Just look at what they're doing now, trying to isolate Iran from the world with an embargo. That could be seen as an act of war.
L: Well, wait a minute. A blockade is regarded as an act of war, but if Western countries decide to harm their own economies by not trading with Iran, that's unfriendly, but not force or fraud.
Doug: Well, it would be forcing citizens in those Western countries to pay higher prices for things, denying them the choice of buying oil from Iran if they wanted to. But I agree; that's more a matter of criminal tyranny and stupidity than an act of war. Still it sure is prodding Iran, throwing rocks at the hornets' nest, as the US did with Japan before WWII. The Japanese basically have no domestic oil production and were getting their oil from the US and the Dutch East Indies. The US cut off both supplies, backing them into a corner, leaving them little choice but an aggressive response.
At any rate, I think all of this could backfire on the US. Since the Iranians apparently can't clear deposits through New York, where international dollar trades clear, they've made a very commonsense move to cut the US out of the middle and sell their oil directly to India, without using dollars. I think other countries will follow – and then what? Iran isn't going to want bushels and bushels of rupiah or yen or whatever. I think the odds favor them turning to gold. It's said that's one of the means of payment the Indians will be using.
Gold is the logical choice and the next step in the demise of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. There's a lot of demand for the dollar to buy and sell oil. If countries stop using it, demand for the dollar would fall, at the very time the US is greatly increasing the supply of dollars. The day is coming when trillions of dollars outside the US will only be spendable inside the US. At that point it's game over for the dollar.
L: You've talked about the world going back onto a gold standard before. What do you say to the people who say that gold is a barbaric relic from the past that doesn't work in a modern economy – they can't go around with pockets full of doubloons to buy cars or chests full of treasure to buy houses…
Doug: Such people are not thinking rationally and are economically ignorant. As always, we should start with a definition: what is money? The short answer is that it's a store of wealth and medium of exchange. For reasons we've discussed and as Aristotle outlined over 2,000 years ago, gold is simply the best form of money ever adopted. And in our modern world, you don't have to physically cart the stuff around. You can, but you can also transfer ownership of physical gold electronically, through services like GoldMoney.com.
L: Note: We do endorse GoldMoney.com as a convenient and reliable way to own, trade, and transfer gold, but readers should be advised that Doug is an investor in it.
Doug: Right. I like to put my money where my mouth is.
L: Okay, so you see this trend being bullish for gold, clear enough. But most of the gold ever produced in the world still exists in purified form in various vaults around the planet. Gold doesn't get used up like silver does, so there's plenty of supply. So, would the physical need for gold as money really impact the price of gold and related equities, or would that be more a function of governments further debasing their currencies?
Doug: Well, it's estimated that there are some six billion ounces of refined gold in human possession around the world, or, somewhat less than one ounce per person. Global gold production is said to be about 80 million ounces a year, or about a 1.3% annual increase in the supply of gold. That would be the steady, "natural" rate of inflation if we were on a gold standard. The amount of various currency units in the world is increasing at a much, much faster pace than 1.3%. Nobody really knows, not even the Fed, but depending on how you define the money supply, it would take $10,000 to $50,000 – or more – per ounce to back all of the dollars in existence with gold. Whatever the correct number is, I expect gold's price in dollars to increase dramatically as the world moves closer to and eventually adopts a gold standard.
L: So, any investment implications beyond the obvious? Buy gold and silver for prudence and protection, buy gold stocks for speculative leverage?
Doug: That's the basic recipe. And diversify your holdings internationally. You can never tell when the government of your home country will have a psychotic break.
L: What do you say to the people afraid that in a world so traumatized as to go back onto a gold standard, the risk of owning any paper asset, including gold stocks, would be too high? No one will trade gold stocks for a can of dog food in a Mad Max world…
Doug: That's a valid concern. You can't eat paper, and even owning shares in a gold mine may not be of much use in a real economic cataclysm – the US government shut down gold mining during WWII as a nonessential industry. It could happen again. But that's why, as you said, we own gold for prudence, and the stocks are strictly speculative vehicles.
But let's have some perspective. The security of your stock portfolio may become the least of your concerns if the US starts a war with Iran that touches off WWIII. If that happens, the US government and population will both turn hysterical, and the whole country will be locked down like a prison. What was once America will become even more of a police state than it is now. Who knows where that would end?
So, one of the most intelligent things you can do is as I've been saying for years: diversify your assets and your physical presence internationally. Having some place you like to spend time off the beaten track, where you can ride the storm out, should be top priority for everyone who can afford it. Preparing for the worst at home should be top priority for those who can't.
L: Would you care to put odds on open war between the US and Iran?
Doug: I'd say it's highly probable within the next two to four years – say, between 50% and 75% – that an actual shooting war will break out.
L: Not much time to prepare. I sure hope all our readers are doing what they can.
Doug: Me too.
L: Right then. Thanks for your thoughts and guidance, Doug.
Doug: You're welcome. We'll talk again soon.
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However, with your knowledge enveloped with sarcasm, I would have loved to have face to face debates. No insults would have been disallowed.
Beat it!
Ok, I promise. If people stop commenting or rating my posts, I will leave.
I value your straight shit.
altho Y/C's original post seems pro-gold with that XAU denominator, with him any lack of ambiguity is purely accidental, imo...
however, with the H20 and the slash (/) we get not only another canoeing loss, but a political refence to the '68 GOP agenda, as well
or something
I am XAU ( soft), Yes ,I caught the oxymoron<> +1SLEWIE!
do you think the satanicHost has landLockedLiquidityLiverLips?
nice shade of lipstick, tho?
Good point Slewie! +1 A bit Rudimentary, but on topic. ( G-5 style).
The problem is... these people sound as gullable as those that bought the hope & change hand over fist, same idiots same paradigm.
The stance that Iran is quite a darling in the middle east is like a weird form of altruism
Really? These people sound gullable *SIC*?
Most of the people who are against war with Iran do not fall for the Left|Right paradigm. Not sure what paradigm you are referring to. Hope and change was a BS political slogan...not a paradigm.
Many people on ZH tend to understand history in a way the typical MSM followers do not.
Iran is not a darling. Nor is Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, North Korea, or for that matter Russia or China.
Should we attack them all?
Is the MSM calling for the deposition of the Saudi royal family because they support and fund Wahhabism (Al Qaeda)? Why not?
Start thinking for yourself and stop parroting MSM and shifting the blame to one political party or the other. BOTH are complicit.
Yes, we should do all of the above. Clearly that is exactly what I meant.
bold text yelling is great.
i also wasnt aware I mentioned a political party. I merely mentioned a scumbag. If anything, it was mockery of msm. A lot of people think Iran is truly a functioning republic, much like they believe we are still one.
But perhaps I Should have punctuated more proficiently.
Who started the goad? The goad or the goad?
Next time I approach the consulate prime minister of ZH societe et al, I will be sure to bend over a bit further before speaking.
economies do not grow, they shrink.
empires and slavery grow or expand, economies
just subsist and then shrink into a
purgatory state of waiting.
sleep in heavenly peace ......
"The Third World War must be fomented by taking advantage of the differences caused by the "agentur" of the "Illuminati" between the political Zionists and the leaders of Islamic World. The war must be conducted in such a way that Islam (the Moslem Arabic World) and political Zionism (the State of Israel) mutually destroy each other. Meanwhile the other nations, once more divided on this issue will be constrained to fight to the point of complete physical, moral, spiritual and economical exhaustion...We shall unleash the Nihilists and the atheists, and we shall provoke a formidable social cataclysm which in all its horror will show clearly to the nations the effect of absolute atheism, origin of savagery and of the most bloody turmoil. Then everywhere, the citizens, obliged to defend themselves against the world minority of revolutionaries, will exterminate those destroyers of civilization, and the multitude, disillusioned with Christianity, whose deistic spirits will from that moment be without compass or direction, anxious for an ideal, but without knowing where to render its adoration, will receive the true light through the universal manifestation of the pure doctrine of Lucifer, brought finally out in the public view. This manifestation will result from the general reactionary movement which will follow the destruction of Christianity and atheism, both conquered and exterminated at the same time."
inevitable, the stupidity of man the collective
and individual; it appears to be a problem for
those nearest the direct evidence.
fate is only inevitable for those incapable of
insight and thought, that is man the collective and
most individual/s. here we all deserve to be what we
are, whatever that is, but those most damaged by the
collective stupidity executed by the least concerned
and considered have a credible and concrete complaint.
death is relief for some and psychic grief well deserved by the
surviving fools of deception, the terrorists at large.
nothing is inevitable but change, that and medication for
mood disorders.
let them drool and stumble at the stair and podium,
glare at the teleprompter and shine for the cameras
as no one is watching, fiat money be damned
So when does the party start? I'm all LIN!
Are you ready for spending maybe another couple trillion or so before its over?
Are you ready to greet thousands of dead American youth as they arrive back in the states packed in boxes?
Are you ready to kill 100's of thousands of civilians who's only contribution to a war was getting in the way of the exploding ordinance around them?
Are you ready to accept complete responsibility for your actions for possibly killing millions of people?
If your conscience will allow you to proceed then lock and load, you're a f****** idiot.
war always makes A LOT OF sense for the elite. The feeling of having real power over governments and populations must destroy any human emotion, if there is anything left to destroy beforehand. The hidden money elite which arose out of the last two centuries is the worst scum the earth has ever spawned. They will create a totalitarian nightmare on our planet.
Good comment. Conscience is key, however there are many arm chair quarterbacks who love to watch hostilities unfold on television and as long as they don't have to see, feel, smell, taste or hear what the stuff of murder and annihalation their conscience doesn't seem to care.
Thus it is with war. How many of the troops come back with severe psychological problems as war is not a natural thing to experience, The powers that be are aware of this and that is why they love the technology, a machine has no conscience and the operator of said machine is far away watching on a screen and thus removed from war's hell.
I wish a country had the guts to start a movement that would rid this world of all these nukes and weapons of mass destruction. No country should have them for their only purpose is genocide and genocide my friends, is terrorism extreme.
The Greek debt problem is baked into the markets, however, a blowup in the Middle East isn't. I can't believe the brinksmanship going on here and it is completely unwarranted. Look, I would merely say to the Iranians, "If you want to join the nuclear arms club, have at it. It isn't a good club to join." "If you should ever even be suspected of using one, you will simply be wiped off of the face of the earth." "That's the wonderful benefit you get for your efforts."
I was amazed by a picture on the front page of our paper today. It showed crewmen aboard one of our Carriers watching Iranian gunboats circle them as they worked their way through the Straights. The telling sign to me was that these guys were in full gear, ready to board the fighters on a moment's notice. That's what I call a "hair-trigger". With everyone spoiling for a fight, somebody is going to be dumb enough to make a mistake. Do we really want another "unwinable war"? Talk about sticker shock at the filling station, you ain't seen nothin' yet.
What do we expect the Iranians to do if they can't cash their checks? Before we went into Iraq, a group of us fairly conservative guys discussed that and most thought it was a dumb idea. We did it anyway and what do we really have to show for it. I am sick of the neo-cons and everyone else that thinks we can bully the rest of the world into doing what we want.
I am concerned enough that I pulled a lot of money off of the table today. I don't have anyplace for it right now but I don't like the way things look.
It is out of most folks hands, the US people like their entitlements, the benefits of being American says you get yours of productive class before someone else who freeloads gets ahead of you for theirs. Freeloading has become the American way of life and Obama is loved because he glad hands out the spoils of raiding the pocketbooks of the productive class of American workers and small business and gives the spoils to those who freeload for a their existence. It was over long ago, only thing left to do is prepare for tax revolts, ML, hunger and chaos, we are f***** and most don't even know it. Trust in the Lord Jesus Christ, as it is all that we have ever needed to insure our salvation.
Americas are now energy independent.
Fuck Israeli sociopathic elites, and fuck Iranian sociopathic elites.
Let's go home. And fuck our own sociopathic elites right out of their fucking gold toilet offices.
USS Enterprise can stay and block the Strait of Hormuz with radioactive waste for 250,000 years.
Maybe then someone deserving can harvest the oil.
J.R> a little help ? AM I the mASTER OF dISATER?
What ever happened to sentense struture?
it was a form, like cricket, that
few could appreciate.
An old story, nearing its end. It started when this was on the radio (enjoy)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5TlpUF2GGw
In-house Infomercial, Louis James (L) and Doug Casey (Doug), both of Casey Research.
"Hi, I'm Sacrilege. I'm here today with Tyler Durden, who'll share with us his thoughts on why the Hadron Collider will end space and time as we know it, and sooner than you all might think. And then we will follow with Maria Bartiromo, who will tell us where investors should put their money to work when the erasure of existence occurs."
Enjoy the market short.
first this: Thers are a-lot of " Paragraphs" , Slewie and Chump! A lot of good people. People that don't know how to trade a (crude june call)!
then this: Enjoy the market short.
and now this: I'm short sgd/usd. <below>
i hope you're on the green with a four-footer for a birdie
This trade is done! Greece has already defaulted!
Next on my Shit to do list? Spain!
Iran, the west, posters here at ZH. I laughed when I read the Casey Research crapola above, pap made for idiots. I have posted about Iran and the anti war crowd seems to be about 90% of the readers while the other 10% refuse to get involved. The worst part is that those on the side of Iran treat it as a religion just as the voters put Obama in office in 2008, there was no meeting of minds, there was no discourse or argument, it was so George Bush, you are either my ally or my enemy. Preemptive and no middle ground, no negotiations, no intellect, just my way or the highway asshole!
Casey is one guy who has no more insight into the matter than I do. Less, because his mind was made up long ago.
I have always, I want to stress that as a disabled vet, I ALWAYS, advocate for peace, just not at all cost. Nearly everyone here agrees that Germany went out of control and under Hitler real evil was worked, it had to be stopped, and god knows "peace in our time" under PM Chamberlin was desperately sought, appeasement did not work, it cannot with madmen bent on war. Most people thought then that Chamberlain made war all the more probable because of his weak kneed stance of caving to the Germans, who by the way laughed at him. Had he refused to appease the alternative would have been war between the powers of Britain and Germany a year earlier than Germany was ready for. WWII might not have happened.
But, it is not the lessons of history that we need to concentrate on today, it is upon what is actually happening today. In order to stop war we first have to identify what can cause it, and there are two lines in the sand that will make sure war between the west (not just the USA, France is actually far more anti Iran than the US and the EU in general is pushing harder for provocative sanctions than we are) one line in the sand is interruption of oil flows, be it Hormuz or sanctions or even price, an attack on oil is an attack on most of the world, and yeah we can go on and argue forever about how we can take oil out of the equation, but in fact it can't be because people breed faster than any new energy sources can possibly be found. Never mind the economics that make alternatives prohibitively expensive and out of the question.
The other red line is that Iran simply cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons because of their stated goal of destroying the Jewish people. And I know that ruffles the feathers of 90% of you, but you risk making yourself fringe by not recognizing the truth of that matter. I know you will not even discuss it, thus the comparison of you to Obama supporters above, but there it is. We will get nothing accomplished till we settle the matter of Iran seeking nuclear weapons. Denial is not a valid argument by the way, they do seek nuclear weapons and will get them if they do not already have them from the black market or Pakistan. At the very least they have weapons grade nuclear materials that can be used in dirty bombs that can destroy multiple targets within the USA. Or did you all miss the Death to the USA chants at the big nuclear rally in Teheran yesterday?
Clearly treaties and international law mean NOTHING to Iran, they are a tool to be used against their enemies, to buy time, games, enemies being everyone outside of Iran. The only advantage the USA has in appeasement and waiting is that the entire rest of the world especially those Islamic nations threatened by Iran now wish we would act, they even wish Israel would act, anything and everything thrown at Iran before they build a bomb. I doubt there will be a war till the whole planet demands it, but when they do we will have Iran surrounded and the Mullahs will all be dead within a week, minimal collateral damage. Hopefully this time after our muscle is used we will just turn the vanquished over to the Arab world and let them do the occupying and nation building, but no matter what else Iran will not have nuclear weapons, and they sure as shit will not be allowed to have delivery systems for either nuclear or conventional weapons.
No war means Iran stops with the threats. Threats mean war. That really is all there is to it. No animosity toward the average Iranian, no hope or push for war, just that modern technology is dangerous and must be kept in sane safe hands, even then there are accidents and tragedy, but combining dark age social and psychological theocratic dictatorships and nuclear technology is simply a non starter, no matter your party, no matter what. And it is not enough to wait till we are attacked and millions killed, or a major city like Chicago left uninhabitable, and all of this is totally avoidable by Iranian compliance with the treaties already in place and signed by them. When they comply and yet the USA or EU or Arabs still want their destruction then you might just have a point, till then eat me. Iran is toast, do not invest in Iranian real estate.
You can have your say. Just don't hide behind your disability while claiming to be a pacifist. You're not and the way it works is you're either a pacifist or you're not and you're not.
boiltherich,
Nobody is going to read all that nonsense. You typed it for nothing.
Now wipe the spittle from your monitor and go beat your cat or whatever it is that you do to cope.
Like most of those who spew propaganda, you love to ignore the difference between words and actions... and against non-violent actions and violent actions. The point is simple, but people like you just refuse to pay attention.
Until someone intentionally takes a violent action against you, it is blatantly unethical to take violent action against them. Period. End of story. Calculate that.
And your rants about rants that various idiots in Iran have made along the line are completely disingenuous. In the previous presidential campaign, the republican nominee (McCain) sang a song "bomb, bomb, bomb... bomb, bomb Iran". And he would have been the president of the country with the most overwhelmingly overblown and powerful military in the history of planet earth, not some two-bit moron 14 levels down from the top of the hierarchy in a military non-power... and one that has not invaded other countries, unlike the USSA.
But you and the rest of the neo-con-jobs ignore all facts, and just spew utterly unbalanced vitriol saying how we must wipe out people and governments in other countries because once in a while someone over their also uttered unbalanced vitriol.
Grow up, and learn to think for yourself.
PS: By your logic, every leader of every foreign nation should attempt to nuke DC because DC controls nukes and is therefore a potential threat. I hope you realize that, psycho. Back to the basic fact. If someone has not assaulted you, then you have no right to assault them. You have no right to murder every human being on earth just because it is a FACT that any one of them might kill you someday. Live with it.
How many times must this be said? In caps, no less...
IRAN CONSIDERS THE ZIONIST REGIME A THREAT. And you know what? They are right! Do you not know Israel's long-term goal? It is to "take back" MUCH more territory than they currently have!
How, pray tell, is this going to be achieved? Is Israel going to say "pretty please" and the region will say, "Oh, okay....here you go....my bad." And then they all stand in a circle and sing "Kum Ba Ya"?
Zionism IS a threat, not only to the greater ME b/c of their ultimate agenda....it is a threat to the entire world, and actually OWNS most of it! Who do you think the central bankers are? With whom do they pledge their allegiance?
I have not always known these things. It was not until I started doing some serious research into ZIONISM that I understood what it is and what it wants. And the results would be nothing short of global misery!
boiltherich dumped the contents of his propaganda controlled mind thusly:
Funny how you then follow up by jumping on board the "war for any reason, real or imaginary" bandwagon. You even invoked the Hitler/Chamberlain bogeyman in the same paragraph.
That sounds good. Now let us watch as you do the exact opposite.
Then the sanctions on Iran's oil are, by your own statement, an attack on most of the world. I don't know if I'd call it that, but I'd agree that the sanctions are an unnecessary source of harm to the world economy.
The whole 'wipe Israel off the map' schtick doesn't fly around here. It's repeatedly been shown to be a willful mistranslation for propaganda purposes. Just because you've swallowed it hook, line, and sinker doesn't make it any more believable.
As for the "stated goal of destroying the Jewish people", only someone with a cartoon-like understanding of reality would give that any credence. The Jewish community in Iran has been there for 3000 years and has no desire to leave. Israel has even tried to bribe them to leave Iran and move to Israel, offering $60,000 per family, plus loans and cheap mortgages. The Society of Iranian Jews responded thusly:
"The identity of Iranian Jews is not tradeable for any amount of money. Iranian Jews are among the most ancient Iranians. Iran's Jews love their Iranian identity and their culture, so threats and this immature political enticement will not achieve their aim of wiping out the identity of Iranian Jews."
Source: http://www.antiwar.com/orig/cook.php?articleid=11394
When the Shah was driven from power, Ayatollah Khomeini issued a decree that the Jews were to be protected, and similar edicts protect the Iranian Christian community. There is a Jewish representative in the Iranian parliament. Tehran has 11 synagogues, Hebrew schools, kosher restaurants, a Jewish hospital, a Jewish old age home, a Jewish cemetary, and a Jewish library (its reading room decorated with a photograph of the Ayatollah Khomeini).
Source: http://www.sephardicstudies.org/iran.html
From the above article, here are some quotes from Iranian Jews:
"We are Jews, not Zionists. We are a religious community, not a political one."
"Sometimes I think they are kinder to the Jews than they are to themselves."
"Everywhere in the world there are people who don't like Jews. In England, they draw swastikas on Jewish graves. I don't think that Iran is more dangerous for Jews than other places."
"I agree with the ideals of the Islamic republic. These are Jewish values too."
Denial is not a valid argument, indeed. All sixteen United States intelligence agencies, as well as Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, have concluded that there is no evidence that Iran is building an atomic bomb. Why do you remain in denial of this?
Source: http://original.antiwar.com/mcgovern/2012/01/25/us-israel-agree-iran-not...
You do know that Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, don't you? If treaties and international law mean nothing to Iran, why have they remained in full compliance with this treaty? You do know that this treaty entitles Iran to enrich uranium under IAEA safeguards, don't you? You're aware that the UN sanctions against Iran, pushed through by the United States, are in violation of the UN charter, aren't you?
Clearly treaties and international law mean far more to Iran than they do to the United States.
Source: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MH16Ak03.html
You mean like the threats of offering to place additional restrictions on its nuclear program well in excess of its legal obligations, including opening the program entirely to joint US participation and limiting the number of centrifuges they operate?
Source: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MH16Ak03.html
Threats mean war, and the only threats being issued are coming from The United States and Israel.
So all of this is totally avoidable by...Iran continuing to do what they've been doing? Could you please let the US and Israeli governments know this?
wow what a lengthy essay, boiltherich :)
A dumbly simple FACTS: Who's a Threat to Whom:
* Who has SCIENTISTS being killed over years lately?
* Who inflicts WARS from one to another, the unrelenting wars around the globe?
* Who has proven bad records carrying on various OPERATIONS to do all the KILLING, coup d'état, covert operations, regime changes, and so on?
ACCEPT THE FACTS, the #1 THREAT to the WORLD PEACE and FREEDOM is the USSA, and the #2 is its bed partner, ISREAL.
NO other nations have been inflicting wars and attrocities to come close to the magnitude of these two parties!
________________________
“The Nomadic Parasites will shift out of London and into Manhattan. And this will be presented under a camouflage of national slogans. It will be represented as an American victory. It will not be an American victory.
Until you know who has lent what to whom, you know nothing whatever of politics, you know nothing whatever of history, you know nothing of international wrangles.” — Ezra Pound (1885–1972)
Which Path to Persia?: Redux
While the "easier" nations of Tunisia and Egypt were picked apart by foreign-funded color revolutions, the global corporate-financier oligarchs knew well in advance nations like Libya, Syria, and Iran would be fundamentally different. Nations including Belarus, Pakistan, Myanmar, and Thailand, come next, posing similar hurdles, and of course Russia and China remain at the end of the road and will require the most vigorous of all campaigns to effect regime change and assimilate them into the Wall Street/London corporate-financier dominated "international community."
For all intents and purposes this is the final battle between nation-states and this abhorrent, illegitimate "international community." The battle is building up to what many geopolitical analysts call World War III, but with an insidious twist. It is a battle where festering imperial networks operating under the guise of "civil society" and "NGOs" are turning populations against their governments and serving as impetus to usher in stooge replacements. National institutions will be supplanted by this global "civil society" network, which in turn will interface with contrived international institutions like the parasitic IMF, the World Bank, and the increasingly farcical United Nations.
Laying to rest any doubt regarding the global elite's designs toward the remaining sovereign nation-states of the world, is the Brookings Institution's "Which Path to Persia?" report. Previously covered, the report has more meaning now than ever, defining verbatim the approach, the tactics and the outcomes expected in this next, decidedly more violent phase of geopolitical reordering worldwide. We can see the stratagems and methodology defined within this report have played out not only in Iran, but in Libya and Syria as well, with preparations and posturing being made in regards to targets further along China's "String of Pearls" and along Russia's vast borders.
- Which Path to Persia?
- Sanctions
- Invasion
- United Front Against Iran
- Manufacturing Provocations
- Foreign-Funded Color Revolution
- US Sponsored Terrorism & Armed Insurrection
- Fomenting a Military Coup
Conclusion
It is INCONCEIVABLE that one could read the pages of "Which Path to Persia?" and not understand the current "international community" as anything less than ABSOLUTELY ILLEGITIMATE. They contrive a myriad of laws with which to restrain and eliminate their competition with while they remain entirely uninhibited themselves in their own OVERT CRIMINALITY. We also understand that the United States is NOT engaged in diplomatic relations with the world's nations as envisioned by America's Founding Fathers, but rather engaged in EXTORTING and COERCING THE WORLD to conform to it's "interests."
This report represents a full array of options NOT ONLY for use in Iran, BUT THROUGHOUT THE WORLD. In hindsight of the US-funded "Arab Spring" it is quite obvious that the methodology laid out in the report has been drawn on to DESTABILIZE AND DEPOSE REGIMES AS WELL AS INSTIGATE WARS OF AGGRESSION. Upon studying this report, its implications for Iran and the surrounding region, WE CAN UNDERSTAND BETTER CONFLICTS YET TO UNFOLD BEYOND NORTH AFRICA AND THE GULF. It is essential that reports like this are made public, their methodology exposed, and the true architects behind Western foreign policy revealed. As the report itself states numerous times, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THEIR GAMBITS REQUIRE SECRECY, "PLAUSIBLE DENIABILITY," and that their dark deeds be done "without the rest of the world recognizing this game."
This is a safe pdf-file, just make a quick link:
(md5 hash: f19c67eab311398c7d53a5cca56bf278)
- None Dare Call It Conspiracy (1971) - Gary Allen
- Crossing the Rubicon; The Decline of the American Empire at the End of Age of Oil (2004) - Michael C. Ruppert
- Fearful Master - A Second Look at the United Nations (1964) - Edward Griffin
- The New Babylon (2009) - Michael Collins Piper
- The Rockefeller File (1976) - Gary Allen
Highly regarded authors: Gary Allen, Antony Sutton, Eustace Mullins
I'm short sgd/usd.
I think we should follow Good Wills hunting logic, and just bomb ourselves at home. At least we will save money and time on a useless trip....besides Krugman says it'll be good for the economy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwK0HHGBkWo
I sit looking at Libor? Tyler mentioned the spreads. The cost of what= WAR? Overnight swaps rates are getting expensive. Lest we not forget the " Charles Schwab", litigation?
Is anyone catching the M/E rinse wash right now? They SHIT petro dollars in Europe!
IMHO, the odds of war against Iran (excluding the Iranians being dumb enough to attack the US or its forces in the theater) before the 2012 election will be inversely proportional to the DOW. If it goes below 10K, the odds are the war is on.
Looking at the telescope through the wrong end; the details are too far to see and the Devil remains well hidden. Although I agree with the gist of his thread. As do most people in ZH forum from what I've read. Here's my perspective :
The question that faces the current geo-political world construct is not the question asked, its a false flag issue. If the right question were asked, if the telescope were turned around, we would rephrase the issue as follows:
a) To begin with we have to ask ourselves where we are in the current momentum of world affairs in order to understand where we are heading.
SO, where are we on the global plane?
1° Since 1945 we are in Pax Americana on the OIl/MIC/Financial construct. This has brought us to the current asymmetric cul-de-sac of today. To which the US hegemony has no easy solution or reply.
2° In the current construct, three Empires now emerge :
- USA as of old who calls the hand; monetary, military and economy wise.
- China that is the new giant and the force of tomorrow, population and economy wise.
- Europe on way to federation, which is the biggest current economic market and depository of past values of dominant western civilization.
3° The game is now all about economic growth as this will control who makes the key calls in the future. As world population is now a major issue, as is the ecological degradation of man's imprint; the fight for raw materials will now hotten up between the three empires as we enter the resource constrained paradigm.
4° The current evolution of power structures in the world have transferred all economic strength to the 1%, in the context of Reagan-THatcher legacy, the outsourcing deregulated big bang construct. Our multinationals and financial behemoths control all access to RM world-wide. They hold the key to these, but these industrial treasures, by a quirk of history, all lie in foreign lands : in ME, Russia, Africa, S. AMerica and Asia.
The three empires have an appetite which is unsustainable for their own requirements based on local RMs. Whence the coming struggle for IMPORTED RM from outside the three empire zones.
b) Having stated where we are in terms of geo-strategic construct we can now ask ourselves the question : Quo vadis world.
THe issue of Oil patch is cardinal in PAx Americana. But pax americana in its past military play has received many debilitating blows that have made MIC play world-wide very costly in economic, human and most of all psychological-morale terms. An Oligarchy that continues to stay on a collision course with history's lessons will suffer the fate of past empires. THe law of diminishing returns applies to all empires and if morale is destroyed the most precious thing is lost: human endeavour to prevail on that route. And this CANNOT BE OUTSOURCED TO SURROGATES. The Roman legions won or lost, and Rome's fate depended on that.
So as top dogs the USA has to ask itself these vital questions that all civilizations face :
1° Are we on the right road to our own sustainable salvation as empire?
2° What is the downside if we lose all in this play?
3° How to our rivals benefit from our debacle. Does it mean permanent decline?
4° Do we have other alternatives to regroup and reinvent our own future than trying the road of Pyrrhic victory, morale loss and further debt slavery, like in Irak/Afgh; in a ME oil patch construct where our KEY allies, Israel and Wahhabite Saud, are both retrograde political constructs, artificial pimples on the face of humanity?
Law of diminishing returns in this cul-de-sac construct can lead to River of no return.
ROme 476 AD!
PS : A trip down History road. Here is a reference bio of the OTHER Casey, "Wild Bill" William Casey, head of Reagan's CIA and architect, along with Pak President Gen. Zia-ul-Haq, of Taliban Afghanistan. What's in a name...the hidden face of PAx Americana.
William J. Casey - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Akhtar Abdur Rahman - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Operation Cyclone - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia "The creation of Frankenstein"...words of Benazir Bhutto to GHB.
China's centrally planned economy is western Keynesian on steroids...good luck with that future. As such, your model and argument fade.
falak pema, i like many of your comments, many times i'll agree with them.
But you may wish to know below info with regard to your use of Wikipedia reference.
ZHers should realize about the Wicked - Pedia!
"It is pretty dorky to quote the CIA's WIKIPEDIA site ... Any sheeple can look up whatever propaganda happens to be on the CIA's Wikipedia, put at the top of search results by the CIA's Google. In case you didn't know, Wikipedia founder JIMMY WALES works for the US government and is one of the 'dearest' friends of his fellow extreme Zionist, the President of Israel, who has thanked Wales personally for letting Mossad plant so much false info there.
Wales was hired to run Wikipedia because of his willingness to spread false info, tell lies and help murder innocent people. In the 1990s 'Jimbo' Wales was a mafia pornographer, likely doing child porn, he is such a criminal ... probably how the US regime blackmailed - pushed him into being the front face for Wicked - Pedia.
Wikipedia is 'ANONYMOUSLY' sourced precisely because it is where US and Israeli agents can plant false information on selected targets, leaving the other 90% sort of 'neutral' sounding, to make the false info more effective!
And remember the CIA folks can totally change what anyone reads there in the blink of an eye, by the time you check back to it ... aaaand it's gone.
If you can't take a minute to go and find an actual legitimate source for something, you shouldn't make yourself look ignorant by using the CIA shill-site as your source, like a 12-year-old would do.
Or are you among the deluded folks who thought Wikipedia was 'volunteers'? Ha!"
Wikipedia a US Gov't Fraud - How US Agents Can Embed in Wikipedia, Plant Propaganda, Deceive Citizens; Wikipedia and the CIA
Few words about Google
Google is the pure and unadulterated essence of evil.
If you use their services they track everything you do with a level of granularity that boggles the mind. They gather the data and they store it permanently and in due course will sell it to the highest bidder or it will be at some future point confiscated.
Just like FaceBook.
Jay Rockefeller is admitting here "Internet should have never existed!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ct9xzXUQLuY
that The Powers That Be are regretting for having allowed the Internet to be set up.
Google is evil, and brutal in its censorship, and the EU is realising Google is a tool used by Americans to defraud them and to attack Europeans. A new Report distributed to the EU Commission and EU Parliament by civil society activists, charges dominant EU search engine Google with multiple offences and criminal acts against EU citizens and EU authorities, and with Google internet search censorship to deceive EU officials and even to help murder EU journalists.
The Report is quite shocking. The full text of the Report is published on this web page:
http://www.indymedia.nl/nl/2011/07/77181.shtml
Or, the full copy of the original of this Report as received by EU Parliament and EU Commission, is here in pdf format:
http://www.banned-in-america.net/nzjd-eu-report-1.pdf
Hence, try those alternative search engines:
https://ixquick.com/
https://startpage.com/ (belongs to ixquick; using google but w/o tracking)
http://duckduckgo.com/
http://www.teoma.com/
http://gibiru.com/
from Gibiru site:
"Search: Google nor the NSA have commented publicly on their agreement. Absent any openness, there is no way for Google customers to know what information the company is giving the NSA and no way for U.S. citizens to know what the NSA is doing for Google in return. Gibiru is part of the Search Engine Privacy Project founded by Underground Internet Privacy Activists."
Sheeples will beleive in the crap MSM's sell them period. Too many fucking inbreds in the USSA and it shows the stupidity.
Just bought some Iranian pitted dates but not one of the revealed the answer to the riddle ?
Russia and China are not ready to play the WWIII game. An Iran war that would be started in 2012/13 would look more like the Vietnam war, with Iran getting support from its many friends, but not outright military alliance.
I do not believe that "they" need to be "stopped", by me or us or
by liberals or ZH readers or anybody.
It may sound quaint to suggest that God will take care of it.
If its easier on your intellect, just realize that "they" have already planted the seeds of their own destruction.
"They" cannot fight any war without oil.... "they" have forgotten how, and moreover they strongly discourage membership of anyone who can think freely and come up with insights and creative solutions to situations.
Furthermore "they" cannot fight without money ... and as we all know, their money is worthless and there is only a very short time left before everybody on the planet figures that out.
"they" are hoist on their own petard, and while Rome could at first plunder weaker civilizations around it, the empire was helpless against the hungry barbarians on every border who had nothing to lose, nothing that could be taken from them, and they didn't fight fair or play nice ....
Now back to history:
The Persians did allow Ezra and his fellows to return to Jerusalem and to rebuild their temple ... despite the fact that the older, more civilized peoples were a bit horrified at the brutish jewish practise of sacrificing live animals to their God ... greeting His nostrils with the perfume of burned and charred flesh and bones, rotting fat and offal, which was allowed to accumulate for centuries at the front entrance ....
But BF3 made all the kiddies think war with Iran would be so cool!
Military propaganda and computer games about terrists are one and the same. If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck ...
Other than that, Credit Writedowns already did this article last week.
This interview is heavy on ideology and not so much -- on rationale and substance.
+1 to you good sir.
Doug Casey's statements are neutralized and dissolved. They reflect the ramblings of a pundit wishing to sell newsletters.