This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Dow 11,000 The Wrong Way As ES Drops 3% From Highs

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Well it was fun while it lasted. Utilities now the best performers on the day as Financials cross down towards the red. Consumer Discretionary -2.6% as we lose Dow 11000 and HY and IG credit is dropping rapidly. Of course the pschological impact of a quarter-/month-end close below 11,000 may be too much to bear for the PPT, so tread carefully - though we note broad risk assets are all selling off and catching up to stocks here.

It seems once we had retested VWAP (red line) a few times from below it was risk-off (though we dropped to more than 3 standard deviations below VWAP which is unusual) but ES is still a little ahead of other risk assets for now...as it seems for once equities are leading risk down.

Chart: Capital Context

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:25 | 1722896 Bear
Bear's picture

GC and ES are now locked together ... step for step

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:26 | 1722901 jarboejl
jarboejl's picture

PPT:  Must... Hold... 11,000... on... Dow...

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:45 | 1723047 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

A decisive breach of Dow 11K and other such thousand marks in widely followed market averages around the world represents a breakdown in collective confidence.  This is often associated with significant historical shocks such as the 1973 Yom Kippur Arab/Israeli War and OPEC oil embargo, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990, the 9/11 attacks, the 2008 financial crisis, etc.:

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2011/03/reversals-from-thousand-mar...

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:27 | 1722904 rajat_bhatia
rajat_bhatia's picture

I Love Short Selling!!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:27 | 1722906 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Risk off, brethren. If only for a littol while, or maybe not; either way, pile into the NZD/$ short, we have to break the 7740 support. :)

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:28 | 1722914 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Another bad American Thursday, rotten Asian Friday, middling European Friday, GREEN US markets. Then bad news filled weekends.

Wash, Rinse Repeat.

ORI

Billary Caught Out

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:30 | 1722915 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Red closes'becoming a frequent occurrence. 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:29 | 1722923 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

PPT bitchez!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:29 | 1722925 clones2
clones2's picture

I have to laugh every day when the MSM has to change their news stories every couple hours to keep up with the movements in the markets...

Dow UP on Durable Goods... (2 hours later), Dow is DOWN on Durable Goods... 

I love how they think their actual stories or what cnbc reports is moving the markets.  Markets move.... News reacts.

I can't believe people actually think it's the other way around.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:40 | 1723011 clones2
clones2's picture

Seriously "Quick guys, the market is now RED RED RED... Delete that bullshit we printed this morning and come up with something to explain why ASAP!!!"

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 21:07 | 1724475 RmcAZ
RmcAZ's picture

"Dow surges on Eurozone hopes"

"Dow plunges on Eurozone fears"

I also love how everything is a "surge" or a "plunge".

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:29 | 1722928 Belarus
Belarus's picture

The NASDAQ 100x next years earnings are getting killed. Seems the defaltion trade is on. Has anyone heard from RoboTrader recentely or is her private hedge fund being liquidated?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:37 | 1722977 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

I'm pretty sure he hanged himself after losing ~60% of his NFLX position.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:31 | 1722931 ChiefJohnRutledge
ChiefJohnRutledge's picture

But, but, the BIX is still positive...

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:32 | 1722946 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

What backs the Stock Market? Is it like Gold that's backed by nothing? /sarc

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:46 | 1723049 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

CONfidence that the CONfidence men/women aren't liars.

It looks like they're going to need a bigger boat.

 

Nikkei 40,000 in 1989 and 8,500 in 2011 here we come!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:51 | 1722974 Bear
Bear's picture

Get ready for an ES low at 1133.75  or not. Green finish ahead? ... this market is pretty tough right now

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:04 | 1723170 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

You should put in a straddle.  It's an awesome way to lose a moderate amount of money, rather than a fuckton of money. 

Yeah, this market is pretty fucky.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:37 | 1722980 clones2
clones2's picture

Anyone have a good link in reference to estimated S&P earnings for 2011 and 2012.  I've heard a couple mentions now of these 50 to 100 PE's on 2012 earnings....

Figured there should be some substance somewhere.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:50 | 1723430 bxy
bxy's picture

20 - 50 % below current estimates

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:40 | 1723012 RazorForex
RazorForex's picture

All the Euro currency pairs especially the Euro Yen are all showing very bearish signals. Everything is down and I think it might be about to accelerate.

http://razorsforex.blogspot.com/2011/09/euro-yen-forex-currency-pair-ana...

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:42 | 1723029 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

They will probably hold it over 11,000 for the quarter end "happy print", then the whole thing crashes on Monday.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:54 | 1723108 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

Homotrader - I bought 1,000 shares of NFLX at $310, should I sell?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:14 | 1723231 toady
toady's picture

Damn right!

You bastards better get out there and BUY BUY BUY!

I swear to god, if you bastards fuck up my end of year bonus I'll come through this screen and kick your ass!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:45 | 1723042 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

My beautiful EWZ.
A four percent gain in less than a week gone....all gone.

Dammit Tyler! What did u do to her!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:28 | 1723318 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Tell me you at least sold a put in initiating your posistion.  It trades weekly dude!

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:57 | 1723054 Sequitur
Sequitur's picture

Shorting LNKD and CRM, established two big positions this morning. Both are steaming piles of shit, pumped out by these fucking fraudulent underwriting banksters. Only a matter of time before funds dump these two companies with riotously laughable -- laughable -- PEs of 400+

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:21 | 1723260 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Get a new avatar. I thought you were MillionDollarBonus and junked you automatically.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:50 | 1723432 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Other short ideas:

PC

GMCR

Consumer Credit is going to continue to suck:

SLM

And of course, REITs are going to eventually face reality:

BXP

DRE

MAC

WRI

BRE

Finally:

BX

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:48 | 1723077 clones2
clones2's picture

2 days ago after the black candle and 50dma resistance, I said the markets would be red... bonds and dollar green.  Worked out perfectly for the trading account...

Looks we are rolling over and tomorrow into Monday doesn't look good.  Bonds, the Dollar, and the VIX have all bounced and moved higher perfectly off their 10 DMA.

Everything is setup perfectly for a move lower in the markets and higher in the other 3.  I still don't know how people can continue to buy bonds at these yields long-term.  But its obviously working short-term...

Look at the VIX and VXX today.  New HIGH in the VXX.  Kind of scary almost.  Follow the charts and don't watch the TV. :-)

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:49 | 1723078 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

And to think Ron Paul wants the market to police itself. HAHA, the market is real efficient. Everything was great this morning, now its in a panic and by the end of the day who knows. I'm not sure what fantasy land he's referring to.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:23 | 1723275 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Oh yeah, the SEC is doing such a fine job and all.  If they'd stop jacking off to porn long enough to watch the news they might see something wrong.

I'd like to know how many bureaucracies and czars are necessary before we're all better.  Anyone have a number?

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:57 | 1723465 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

It would police itself by allowing failures to, you know, actually happen.  If you look at the historicals for the Hong Kong index, you can see that their market was appropriately priced in the 2008-2009 market collapse, and is again correctly pricing 2nd/3rd quarter weakness.  Funny what happens when businesses sink or swim.  

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 14:50 | 1723086 ivars
ivars's picture

Here is comparison chart between my feb 6th chart of DJIA and actual prices. After 8 months with mistakes in the middle, its for last 2 months within 0-5% of actual DJIA:

 

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2860#p34298

 

In original chart, the trend continues to go down with increasing speed.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:16 | 1723242 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

PPT must keep their powder dry for Friday.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:21 | 1723277 HileTroy
HileTroy's picture

Ha a brilliant new stratgy take the faz and the fas at the bottom of the range then when the  last 15 min pump comes i can suck out.

 

Madness I say

 

Then I can go back to praying this thing pukes

 

I have no clue

 

go net flix   lol

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 15:22 | 1723281 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

"Of course the pschological impact of a quarter-/month-end close below 11,000 may be too much to bear for the PPT,..."

 

'Too much to bear' - sounds like bull to me.

Cracked me up, Tyler.


Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:01 | 1723483 bxy
bxy's picture

What a bullshit rally..........."sell every rally.......sell every rally you see............"  sung to music of Roll Out the Barrel.

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:05 | 1723507 kk1532003
kk1532003's picture

3:00 PM.....every day.....

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:32 | 1723624 Golden Receiver
Golden Receiver's picture

It seems S&P volatility kicks in around 2:15-3:00p then it goes racing off in one unpredictable direction or the other. Between that and the unpredictable opening gaps its all WTF to everything but the HFTs

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 16:08 | 1723510 HileTroy
HileTroy's picture

well that worked well

Sky net is in charge

If you can here this message then you are part of the resistance

 

 

 

Thu, 09/29/2011 - 23:16 | 1724718 prophet
prophet's picture

quick question:

"we dropped to more than 3 standard deviations below VWAP which is unusual)"

Which is unusual would be by definition?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!