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Dow Highest Since May 2008? Maybe Not?
The headlines are crowing of the magnificent CAT earnings (channel stuffing?) which in turn is helping the Dow reach its highest point since May 2008 (CAT is responsible for 27 of the Dow's 30 point gain today alone). This must be the signal that we-the-consuming-people need to borrow-and-spend again right? Well, no. Unfortunately, as many already know, the process of indexing is implicitly flawed in many ways - most importantly survivorship bias. If we compare the performance of the components of the Dow at the start of 2008 to the actual Dow index performance, there is a very significant divergence of around 7% (or around 900 points). This is actually understating the difference (as it is an average) as we note that 5 of the 30 names from 2008 have lost more than 70% of their value (GM, AIG, C, BAC, and AA) since January 2008 (averaging -88% among those). Three names have risen by more than 70% (MCD, HD, and IBM - thank you Warren) as 18 of the 2008 Dow 30 names are lower (on average -36.5%) with the remaining 12 Dow 2008 names up on average 33%. What is worse is the realization of the dramatic loss in real purchasing power as Gold has risen by more than 100% since the start of January 2008 as the Fed continues to realize it can abuse the lemming-like focus on nominal returns.
Dow compared to the Average performance of the 2008 Dow names and Gold.
The Dow and the Dow adjusted for Gold's purchasing power.
If it were not for CAT, HD, MCD, and IBM things would look a lot different as we note CAT is up 24% year-to-date (beaten only by the dramatic 32% gain in BofA) and is adding 27 points to the Dow today alone.
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Al-Qaeda should have hit wallstreet on 9/11.
Isn't wall street a 'cell' plant by Al-Qaeda?
Turn those two things around and you have it.
Someone did ~ 70 years 360 days earlier
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_bombing
The WTC tower tenants were mostly financials. Seems even t3rr0r1sm has a long wave...
Worst. Graph. Ever.
This is what we call orgy chart porn. If you don't like orgies well...
I'm OK with orgies. I'm OK with charts. I'm OK with chart orgies. That said, charts should (ideally) make complex relationships easier to see/comprehend. So if the point of that last chart is to show the widely ranging results of each DOW component then I have to beleive there is a better (e.g., clearer and/or simpler) way to make that point.
None if this is meant to say I don't like that last chart. I do. It also makes me want to calculate DJI performance without the top and bottom deciles and quintiles -- the central 80% and 60%.
I think that last chart was actually an electroencephalogram of RobotTarder while he was listening to Bernanke's speech yesterday.
Or a lie detector at the state of the yoonyun speech.
You can get a pretty good sense of that by ignoring the top and bottom six lines :)
'What is worse is the realization of the dramatic loss in real purchasing power as Gold has risen by more than 100% since the start of January as the Fed continues to realize it can abuse the lemming-like focus on nominal returns.'
That realization is going to hurt. Right Robo?
since when did gold become a useful measuring of purchasing power? Were you celebrating the fact that our purchasing power had increased 20% in Q4 when gold dropped that much?
Gold is the most relevant pricing measurement to me...I know lemmings like to look at what the FED wants you to look at, price in fiat printed up dollars, but I'll stick to 'priced in gold' thanks.
OK, well then the bad news for you is that everything you own fell by 2/3 in real terms since the start of 2007 (add any extra nominal losses on top of this). The good news is that any debts you have also fell by 2/3 in your preferred measure of reality. You can thank the Fed for that.
OK, well then the bad news for you is that everything you own fell by 2/3 in real terms since the start of 2007 (add any extra nominal losses on top of this). The good news is that any debts you have also fell by 2/3 in your preferred measure of reality. You can thank the Fed for that.
Remember, just hit 'save' 1 time.
Otherwise......WOW its great that you know SO MUCH about me! 'Everything I own fell 2/3rds'? Uh, no...not at all really, because I dont deal with US fiat dollars. And I dont have any debts, so that category is out too.
Well you sound very clever.
11 posts in 2 years. First post 23 weeks ago. Been saving this one for a rainy day haven't you?
Snoop. Monkey. Just getting a bit bored of retarded yanks bleating on about conspiracy, gold and the Fed and not understanding anything.
that's not much a reason to turn into a blithering/blathering/ troll, mate
perhaps you also wanted a little attention?
if you're not too busy preening, try the GATA website or johnnysilverbear's place [or maybe yer search engine of choice] and you'll find plenty of reputable links to the FED's (and PPT's) gold suppression trading schemes which have been well-documented and are therefore factual to most
since this is done in "secret" [sorry, that is simply a fact] and the FED does not act alone, it is, by definition, a conspiracy ['nother fact]
this leads me to understand that you = ignorant shitheaded asswipe = laspeyres
however, i gave you a greenie for Snoop. Monkey.!
Do you understand that the value of gold isn't going up? The buying power (value) of the dollar is dropping.
Actually, over the last ten years BOTH the buying power of the dollar has been dropping (as has been the case since the end of the gold standard) AND the value of gold has been going up. While I don't think the latter will continue to happen indefinitely, it is nice while it lasts (at least for those who own gold).
Gold is OWNAGE!
So what you are saying is that some stocks have gone up in value and some have gone down in value?
I believe what he is saying is that a lot of sheeple look to the DOW as a sign of economic health. And based on the fact that three stocks are lifting the DOW higher that notion is far from the truth.
Exactly, americans have been trained like the brainless sheeple they are to equate the DOW with 'overall economic health' of course theres nothing further from the truth but it works because sheeple can always be relied upon to be sheeple.
On the ride home all americans have to hear is 'And the DOW was up 40 points' and all-is-well.
if banking is an "industry", then I guess so is retail and making hamburgers
And so I guess the Mafia is really the informal market wholesale and personal protection industry.
Remember CAT is an 'ObaMao partner', therefore theyre allowed to say whatever they want, I dont believe a word of their BS.
Aapl, caterpillar, are now going to shove the roller coaster to the hopium side; while BDI makes it dive along with Euro doom n gloom. Perfect symmetry, the key word, in this many balls in the air game. Play on Oligarchs.
Junk stocks are now stars, Mike Milken resurrected. I love roller coasters, and although I feel I am perpetually 23 in my head, it would be nice to feel 13 to please the MSM crowd. GO long roller coaster rides in 2012.
'Mike Milken resurrected.'
Except there's no RICO in sight...
Turns out you just have to make the racket bigger hence 'globalization'.
Except when globalization means a loss, such as Greece, we have a Jamie Dimon to inform us we have NO direct exposure to them! Of course thats all BS, as 'indirect exposure' is likely in the trillions.
I think that a follow-up chart of the normalized performance of the S&P 500 components from January 2008 is apropos, even if the result would resemble work by Jackson Pollock, not unlike the last graphic above.
Stock 'hedonics'!
WooHOO! A new BUll Market! Or wait... a new Bull shit Market.
"as Gold has risen by more than 100% since the start of January .."
At this rate, it will be $55,000 by Christmas.
... since January of 2008.
As a total aside (speaking of a "two thousand" year), has anybody else noticed the strange and universal predilection of every corporate-controlled media parrot to say the years now as "twenty twelve" or "twenty fourteen" instead of the more rational "two thousand twelve" or "two thousand fourteen"? NOBODY I know in real life talks of the years that way, nor did anybody talk about "twenty oh eight" or "twenty hundred", so why start this "twenty" thing now? It just bugs me --- but the complete unanimity of the media parrots on this matter (like so many others) is downright creepy.
akak,
The original posting was as I set out, when originally posted at 11:38. My comment was at 11:52, 14 minutes later.
In between my comment and yours, the words "of 2008" were added. I know, because I directly copied and pasted for my comment.
Anyway, to get to the important point - "Twenty Twelve" is completely logical, and in accordance with historical references. We don't say "Two Thousand Twelve", just like we didn't say "One Thousand Nine Hundred Twelve".
We say "Eighteen Twelve", "Nineteen Twelve", and now "Twenty Twelve".
In Twenty Ninety-Two we will look back at Fourteen Ninety-two.
That's logic.....
Actually, I have to politefully disagree.
The most logical way to say the years would be to do exactly as I stated --- "two thousand twelve", or "two thousand one hundred fourteen", or whatever --- which is, incidentally, EXACTLY how years are named in EVERY other language which I know EXCEPT for English. In Spanish or French or Polish, for example, one did NOT say "nineteen seventy-five", one said "one thousand nine hundred seventy-five". Why do we, or why should we, do anything different in English?
I will stick with saying "two thousand ---- " until I die.
The Cambridge Encyclopedia guy predicted that we'd all start saying "twenty" instead of "two thousand" around the 2011-2012 period. Something to do with speech cadence. I suspect that all the news anchors want to sound like they're "in the know," so they all started doing it. I'm sure the 2012 Olympics helped too (as they're officially the twenty-twelve olympics). I suspect that the twenty thing will overtake two thousand over the next few years, or at least by 2020 (see? you said twenty twenty didn't you?).
George Soros says to get ready for severe economic chaos, 'period of evil' starting early 2012, and advises americans to stock up on guns and ammo.
! N: Soros on 2012, Gold/Silver Zoom, Israel vs. Iran 2012 and MORE! - YouTube
He is a vampire and Americans have let him into their house. Now he is telling them he is going to suck their blood. And Americans will accept the promise of eternal life.
Sure, Soros is the one who designed the period of evil no doubt. I guess it must be part of 'the rules' that you have to admit at least once what it is youre doing....somehow 'fair play' to the insane elite I guess.
Lol the last chart is complete chaos and pointless.
um....did you read it or are you just thinking out loud?
This is bullshit.
a) The dow is a comedy index and everybody knows that.
b) You should have used total returns and not prices.
c) debtors rejoice! if gold measures pricing power, then the Fed has reduced the real value of all debt by 85% since 2000.
Exactly the Fed's goal. Bernanke is the greatest alchemist ever!
Can't you see him wearing a wizard's hat and stirring a pot of lead?
This is bullshit.
a) The dow is a comedy index and everybody knows that.
b) You should have used total returns and not prices.
c) debtors rejoice! if gold measures pricing power, then the Fed has reduced the real value of all debt by 85% since 2000.
Whats wrong, your keyboard messed up or do you have spastic seizures?
Anyway, try to concentrate on hitting 'save' just once.
Lets see...'The DOW is a comedy index (true) and everyone knows that (false).
No, in reality the average american debt slave thinks the DOW is in fact the only relevant overall economic indicator around. So now that there is near zero volume in the DOW, the FED Maniacal Monetizers know they can use that to keep the sheeple in their green pastures chewing on their green shoots not expecting a bit of the impending total collapse.
'Debt has been reduced 85% since 2000'...I dont know how you figure that, and the dollar has been devalued by at least that much since then anyway.
sometimes i have seizu
You are clearly a total retard.
Bravo Johny, bravo.
You just said that.
$8 Gasoline and $6 Big Mac is coming to a town near you...not to mention $400K college educations and $2500 rent...
conservative estimates...
But....our debt is '2/3rds less', measured in fiat dollars....doesnt that mean we're all multi-billionaires?
The Mini NSDQ is in overbought territory and there has not been a good pullback in a long time. There is currently a very bearish scenario developing on the NQ futures. This is signaling possible reversal on all 3 indecies.
MINI NSDQ Divergence Video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukgoNRBgMbg
It will be more obvious if he can compare DOW with GDP, TOTAL DEBTS (PUBIC&PRIVATE) and M3, FED&C0's balance sheet.
Bernanke: USA is Japan
Here is what it means for the stock market:
NIKKEI 225
http://forecast-chart.com/historical-nikkei-225.html
Pumping more money into the MARKETS WONT WORK!!!!!!!!
Dont these mother fuckers learn?!!!
Sure it "works" --- it is just that their final goals do not coincide with yours or mine, nor the average American's.
More like "channel surfing." I mean these folks are so phucking terrified they can't even broadcast the Asian openings anymore! VICTORY...ZERO HEDGE!!!!!!
charlie & ed would be so proud! (est. 1882)
Charles_Henry_Dow.jpg (ed's photo has was dropped from the index in 1932)
I like the Picasso chart at the bottom. Pick your own asshole, asshole!
Spin it any way you wish, the fact is stocks are UP. Maybe they shouldn't be, maybe they won't be tomorrow, maybe precious metals or some commodities are up more. But let's not deny that stocks, U.S. and worldwide, are in classic rally mode.
Am short CAT at the moment!
Peace!
With foreign governments selling their Treasury holdings and investing in BA & CAT equipment? Why not wait until they are net purchasers of Treasuries again.
Sure man! remember that the money you pump to buy their expensive stocks is used to make their fucking CEOS Richer!
Remeber that the stocks are rising on no solid grounds, which means
There will be blood....
Its your call...
Their isn't enough diesel to go around anymore I would wholeheartedly concur.
I wonder what they are going to fill the fuel tanks with in five months. Probably hopium.
It's certainly not going to be diesel.
Join in Raping CVX ... The true value of this company should be close to the short term US treasuries!
Must watch!
http://www.crudethemovie.com/
"Take off is optional, landing is a must"