Drought Crop Update: From Harsh Expectations To Harsher Reality

Tyler Durden's picture

Droughts tend to produce vast yield variations. This week's ProFramer crop tour reaffirmed this tendency and as UBS notes, conditions declined with the expectations of low yields compounded by the harsher reality of poor quality - likely to be a major issue for corn feeders. Interestingly, Soybeans looked good from the road but up close (pod formation and beans/pod) were well below normal; and UBS adds to forget the CME for the moment - the cash market is now the attention grabber as they expect it to lead this rally in Ags higher - especially the July 2013s, raising an interesting question of if (or when) the US will restrict exports? Especially with no let-up in the drought conditions.

Lower yields AND lower quality...

With Corn and Soybean conditions data just awful...


and its not getting better anytime soon...


Charts: NOAA and UBS

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otto skorzeny's picture

Fire it up Friday-Benny the Bitch

Precious's picture

On and on the rain will fall,
Like tears from a star, like tears from a star.
On and on the rain will say,
How fragile we are, how fragile we are.

whatsinaname's picture

Can read some real time farmer updates at agweb.com

Must be hoping for a miracle now.

LFMayor's picture

The only miracle available at this point would be for it rain corn and soybeans.  It's too late, period. 

catacl1sm's picture

^^ That's too fucking funny right there.

neidermeyer's picture

I posted the same info here from IOWA and western Illinois 3 weeks ago ...

American34's picture

BULLISH! On counterfit fed money!

ptoemmes's picture

I don't think you can survive eating cotton.

Anglo Hondo's picture

However, you can print a LOT of extra money on cotton.

Bullish for Jackson Hole...


pbmatthews's picture

But we can eat IPads and Iphone 5s!!!!

philipat's picture

Let them eat cake?

Oops, no, that needs wheat!!

francis_sawyer's picture

Print more rain... NOW!

Dr. Engali's picture

Didn't you hear? Obama is sending rain in the form of a slow moving cat 1 hurricane.

fonzannoon's picture

That hurricane didn't become that hurricane?

francis_sawyer's picture

You didn't create that hurricane... The government did...

pbmatthews's picture

Oh yes our dear leader cannot only make the seas go down, but he can make them go up too. 

He also has the ability to make it rain.  And since NONE of the states in the corn belt are not going to vote for him this year, he has damned them all with drought, locusts, and other biblical plagues.

Beware of the mighty Soetoro!!!

Lednbrass's picture

As usual it is only another case of the rich getting righer, Louisiana growers have already gotten good rain this year, in some cases too much.

As I think about it, if it were possible for government to control rain this is exactly how it would be allocated.

101 years and counting's picture

the drought and heat have let up in IL.  too late tho.  the corn is already brown and dead.  yielding...nothing.  this from north-central IL.

otto skorzeny's picture

same area as you. I really think alot of the midwest economies have been helped the last 3 years  by bumper crops-especially the farm towns(alot of brand new F350s and John Deeres). this is really going to crimp farm state/local economies- no taxes from all these big ticket purchases, income tax from farms,etc. the trickle-down ain't gonna trickle

jerry_theking_lawler's picture

was on a recent trip to central IL last week. crops were brown/dead, lakes were 6' below normal level, crops were being harvested early......didn't look good.

now is the time for the .gov to step up and make the farm crop insurance pay our 'fully'....

Landrew's picture

Near the Great Lakes we were spared by rain several weeks ago. The corn yields will be average instead of zero.

not fat not stupid's picture

God is punishing the Bible Belt, as He should.

Xibalba's picture

Nah, this is ---

Rev 16:

 8 And the fourth angel poured out his bowl upon the sun; and it was given to it to scorch men with fire.

 9 And men were scorched with fierce heat; and they blasphemed the name of God who has the power over these plagues; and they did not repent, so as to give Him glory.

 10 And the fifth angel poured out his bowl upon the throne of the beast; and his kingdom became darkened; and they gnawed their tongues because of pain,

 11 and they blasphemed the God of heaven because of their pains and their sores; and they did not repent of their deeds.

 12 And the sixth angel poured out his bowl upon the great river, the Euphrates; and its water was dried up, that the way might be prepared for the kings from the east.

 13 And I saw coming out of the mouth of the dragon and out of the mouth of the beast and out of the mouth of the false prophet, three unclean spirits like frogs;

 14 for they are spirits of demons, performing signs, which go out to the kings of the whole world, to gather them together for the war of the great day of God, the Almighty.

phat ho's picture

omg; there were 3 frogs jumping against the window yesterday...I'm not sure of what spirits exactly

web bot's picture

You know, on here people do joke about religion and the like... and of course, there are the Liberals - who have a such as distaste for God, or any thing which posits them as dependent on anything other that the state religion of Liberalism.

However one thing to consider regarding God... many people all over the world pray to God for change... for example ending the scourge of abortion (as an example) is a common prayer, and Liberals laugh, thinking these are the meanderings of illiterate peasants.

But, don't think that God can't end abortion (or any other matter). All it would take is a virulent form of H5N1 or some varation of SARS with an 75% mortality rate... and there won't be enough doctors left to perform abortion... or enough people left to carry on civilization. Just because we can explain it, doesn't negate the Divine hand.

Liberalism has been the driving force of collapse of the Western world and history books will show this to be so... and the problem is that future generations will never learn.

StychoKiller's picture

"Lord:  Deliver us from Evil!"

blunderdog's picture

Oh, I had you all wrong.  I had guessed you were a Christian--you know, the loving New Testament God.

If you're an old-fashioned Fire and Brimstone Jew, your views make a lot more sense.

That said, I'd point out that it is human arrogance to attempt to understand the workings of God.  He is beyond all human comprehension, and to assert (or even to THINK) that you know his mind is a grave sin.

See ya in hell!

Lednbrass's picture

You're the one who isn't going to have food, not them.

Red Heeler's picture

It's going to be a long winter.

ParkAveFlasher's picture

Forget Arab Spring, bring on Arab Xmas.

Xibalba's picture

Dustbowl redux. Expect the same thing around this time.  i.e Government Fed supporting farmers by keeping prices high while people starve.  Hooverville Obamneytown is on it's way to a city near you!

otto skorzeny's picture

senators like Durbin and Grassley are going to make sure their big $ farm base gets taken care of- everybody else screw off

Xibalba's picture

After all, "Corporations are people my friend"

Metalredneck's picture

"My country, 'tis of thee

 Sweet land of subsidy,

 Of thee I sing..."

stocktivity's picture

"God shed his grace on thee"

....and we should all be thankful God's on America's side instead of Greece or China's side.

ZeroAvatar's picture

Long: tents, tarps, refrigerator boxes and sleeping bags.

phat ho's picture

long body bags and/or pooper scoopers

prains's picture

what's gonna happen to the FRUCTOSE omfg!

phat ho's picture

frito lays will be out of business in 3 months imo  :-)

Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Nah, they'll just use saw dust filler and sprinkle essence of GMO corn on top. Problem solved.


Clever Name's picture

Nonsense! Newspapers add much needed roughage and essential inks!

HaroldWang's picture

Just curious, won't Isaac rains help somewhat once it moves inland into the plain states?

phat ho's picture

naw, we're still screwed.  :-)

Lohn Jocke's picture

At this point, particularly in the southern corn belt, rain will do more harm than good. More abandoned corn acres and a decrease in soybean quality.