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Drought Crop Update: From Harsh Expectations To Harsher Reality

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Droughts tend to produce vast yield variations. This week's ProFramer crop tour reaffirmed this tendency and as UBS notes, conditions declined with the expectations of low yields compounded by the harsher reality of poor quality - likely to be a major issue for corn feeders. Interestingly, Soybeans looked good from the road but up close (pod formation and beans/pod) were well below normal; and UBS adds to forget the CME for the moment - the cash market is now the attention grabber as they expect it to lead this rally in Ags higher - especially the July 2013s, raising an interesting question of if (or when) the US will restrict exports? Especially with no let-up in the drought conditions.

Lower yields AND lower quality...

With Corn and Soybean conditions data just awful...

 

and its not getting better anytime soon...

 

Charts: NOAA and UBS

 

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Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:40 | 2744088 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

Fire it up Friday-Benny the Bitch

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 14:11 | 2744248 Precious
Precious's picture

On and on the rain will fall,
Like tears from a star, like tears from a star.
On and on the rain will say,
How fragile we are, how fragile we are.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 14:36 | 2744311 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Can read some real time farmer updates at agweb.com

Must be hoping for a miracle now.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 14:53 | 2744364 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

The only miracle available at this point would be for it rain corn and soybeans.  It's too late, period. 

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 15:37 | 2744476 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

^^ That's too fucking funny right there.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 17:03 | 2744627 neidermeyer
neidermeyer's picture

I posted the same info here from IOWA and western Illinois 3 weeks ago ...

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 14:19 | 2744269 American34
American34's picture

BULLISH! On counterfit fed money!

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:27 | 2744092 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

I don't think you can survive eating cotton.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:40 | 2744148 phat ho
phat ho's picture

cotton candy

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:42 | 2744156 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

cotton mouth

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 14:10 | 2744244 Anglo Hondo
Anglo Hondo's picture

However, you can print a LOT of extra money on cotton.

Bullish for Jackson Hole...

 

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 15:08 | 2744404 pbmatthews
pbmatthews's picture

But we can eat IPads and Iphone 5s!!!!

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 21:28 | 2745342 philipat
philipat's picture

Let them eat cake?

Oops, no, that needs wheat!!

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:27 | 2744096 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Print more rain... NOW!

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:28 | 2744097 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Didn't you hear? Obama is sending rain in the form of a slow moving cat 1 hurricane.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:29 | 2744105 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

That hurricane didn't become that hurricane?

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:46 | 2744176 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

You didn't create that hurricane... The government did...

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 18:24 | 2744791 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

Haarpicane Isaac....yep.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 15:11 | 2744415 pbmatthews
pbmatthews's picture

Oh yes our dear leader cannot only make the seas go down, but he can make them go up too. 

He also has the ability to make it rain.  And since NONE of the states in the corn belt are not going to vote for him this year, he has damned them all with drought, locusts, and other biblical plagues.

Beware of the mighty Soetoro!!!

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 18:17 | 2744772 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

As usual it is only another case of the rich getting righer, Louisiana growers have already gotten good rain this year, in some cases too much.

As I think about it, if it were possible for government to control rain this is exactly how it would be allocated.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:28 | 2744100 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

the drought and heat have let up in IL.  too late tho.  the corn is already brown and dead.  yielding...nothing.  this from north-central IL.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:41 | 2744136 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

same area as you. I really think alot of the midwest economies have been helped the last 3 years  by bumper crops-especially the farm towns(alot of brand new F350s and John Deeres). this is really going to crimp farm state/local economies- no taxes from all these big ticket purchases, income tax from farms,etc. the trickle-down ain't gonna trickle

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 18:26 | 2744805 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

was on a recent trip to central IL last week. crops were brown/dead, lakes were 6' below normal level, crops were being harvested early......didn't look good.

now is the time for the .gov to step up and make the farm crop insurance pay our 'fully'....

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 17:00 | 2744620 Landrew
Landrew's picture

Near the Great Lakes we were spared by rain several weeks ago. The corn yields will be average instead of zero.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:28 | 2744101 not fat not stupid
not fat not stupid's picture

God is punishing the Bible Belt, as He should.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:41 | 2744154 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Nah, this is ---

Rev 16:

 8 And the fourth angel poured out his bowl upon the sun; and it was given to it to scorch men with fire.

 9 And men were scorched with fierce heat; and they blasphemed the name of God who has the power over these plagues; and they did not repent, so as to give Him glory.

 10 And the fifth angel poured out his bowl upon the throne of the beast; and his kingdom became darkened; and they gnawed their tongues because of pain,

 11 and they blasphemed the God of heaven because of their pains and their sores; and they did not repent of their deeds.

 12 And the sixth angel poured out his bowl upon the great river, the Euphrates; and its water was dried up, that the way might be prepared for the kings from the east.

 13 And I saw coming out of the mouth of the dragon and out of the mouth of the beast and out of the mouth of the false prophet, three unclean spirits like frogs;

 14 for they are spirits of demons, performing signs, which go out to the kings of the whole world, to gather them together for the war of the great day of God, the Almighty.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:44 | 2744169 phat ho
phat ho's picture

omg; there were 3 frogs jumping against the window yesterday...I'm not sure of what spirits exactly

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 22:28 | 2745510 web bot
web bot's picture

You know, on here people do joke about religion and the like... and of course, there are the Liberals - who have a such as distaste for God, or any thing which posits them as dependent on anything other that the state religion of Liberalism.

However one thing to consider regarding God... many people all over the world pray to God for change... for example ending the scourge of abortion (as an example) is a common prayer, and Liberals laugh, thinking these are the meanderings of illiterate peasants.

But, don't think that God can't end abortion (or any other matter). All it would take is a virulent form of H5N1 or some varation of SARS with an 75% mortality rate... and there won't be enough doctors left to perform abortion... or enough people left to carry on civilization. Just because we can explain it, doesn't negate the Divine hand.

Liberalism has been the driving force of collapse of the Western world and history books will show this to be so... and the problem is that future generations will never learn.

Wed, 08/29/2012 - 01:27 | 2745738 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"Lord:  Deliver us from Evil!"

Wed, 08/29/2012 - 16:40 | 2747819 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Oh, I had you all wrong.  I had guessed you were a Christian--you know, the loving New Testament God.

If you're an old-fashioned Fire and Brimstone Jew, your views make a lot more sense.

That said, I'd point out that it is human arrogance to attempt to understand the workings of God.  He is beyond all human comprehension, and to assert (or even to THINK) that you know his mind is a grave sin.

See ya in hell!

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:44 | 2744167 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

forget your <sarc> ?

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 18:16 | 2744769 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

You're the one who isn't going to have food, not them.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:29 | 2744104 Red Heeler
Red Heeler's picture

It's going to be a long winter.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:31 | 2744114 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Forget Arab Spring, bring on Arab Xmas.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:35 | 2744123 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Dustbowl redux. Expect the same thing around this time.  i.e Government Fed supporting farmers by keeping prices high while people starve.  Hooverville Obamneytown is on it's way to a city near you!

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:40 | 2744149 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

senators like Durbin and Grassley are going to make sure their big $ farm base gets taken care of- everybody else screw off

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:43 | 2744161 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

After all, "Corporations are people my friend"

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 14:16 | 2744259 Metalredneck
Metalredneck's picture

"My country, 'tis of thee

 Sweet land of subsidy,

 Of thee I sing..."

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 18:28 | 2744815 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

"God shed his grace on thee"

....and we should all be thankful God's on America's side instead of Greece or China's side.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:47 | 2744178 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Long: tents, tarps, refrigerator boxes and sleeping bags.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:49 | 2744188 phat ho
phat ho's picture

long body bags and/or pooper scoopers

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:38 | 2744139 prains
prains's picture

what's gonna happen to the FRUCTOSE omfg!

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:52 | 2744194 phat ho
phat ho's picture

frito lays will be out of business in 3 months imo  :-)

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 16:50 | 2744605 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Nah, they'll just use saw dust filler and sprinkle essence of GMO corn on top. Problem solved.

Miffed:-)

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 20:16 | 2745142 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

"Soylent Green is people!"

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 21:08 | 2745291 Clever Name
Clever Name's picture

Nonsense! Newspapers add much needed roughage and essential inks!

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:38 | 2744142 HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

Just curious, won't Isaac rains help somewhat once it moves inland into the plain states?

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:40 | 2744153 phat ho
phat ho's picture

naw, we're still screwed.  :-)

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 14:47 | 2744348 Lohn Jocke
Lohn Jocke's picture

At this point, particularly in the southern corn belt, rain will do more harm than good. More abandoned corn acres and a decrease in soybean quality.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:47 | 2744179 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

Yes.

But if it helps anyone: We didn't build that hurricane

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:49 | 2744184 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

It COULD dump a whole 'lotta frogs on us, though.  Just sayin'.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 14:09 | 2744241 samsara
samsara's picture

A little,  but it ain't going up that far from the maps.   But it's too little too late for the growing season.

 

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 14:34 | 2744307 hoos bin pharteen
hoos bin pharteen's picture

Isaac rain is too little, too late for this year's corn season.  It'll also wreak havoc on Mississippi cotton.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 17:04 | 2744632 Landrew
Landrew's picture

Maybe you forgot the germination cycle?

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:39 | 2744146 Mr. Lucky
Mr. Lucky's picture

This is bullish for the foundation and or concrete flat work repair business.  The clay soil pulls away from foundations and under driveways as it dries out; then when it rains in the winter and spring things start to move.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 14:03 | 2744226 pursueliberty
pursueliberty's picture

business has been good for the last couple of years.

 

Also helping is the fact of all the cheap ass builders skimping on foundations.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:39 | 2744147 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Corn in Winnebego County Illinois looks like the tassles were cut and it is about a foot shorter than expected. Looks bad.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 13:42 | 2744157 phat ho
phat ho's picture

add a couple more years of drought nastiness it 'will' be dust-bowl heaven

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 14:24 | 2744277 g speed
g speed's picture

add less seed cause if you don't get it from monsanto you won't get it---

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 14:23 | 2744276 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Issac may bring TOO much rain all at once into some of the drought counties, really moving a lot of dry and damaged top soil downstream - whole lotta property going to change hands...

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 14:56 | 2744373 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

We have our iPads for dinner. Who needs corn?

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 16:04 | 2744538 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Obama is preparing the "blame Bush" speech right now.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 16:04 | 2744539 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Obama is preparing the "blame Bush" speech right now.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 16:31 | 2744569 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

The biggest differences between the dustbowl era and this multi-year drought is that so many more people live in cities completely dependent on the farms for food, and in the 30s almost all food production was local so the desertification of the midwest didn't have nearly the impact on the food supply on the West and East coast that this drought is going to have. Add to that the fact that the rivers and seas are poisoned so dropping a hook in the water isn't going to put food on the table, and most people living in the burbs haven't a clue how to provide for themselves, and the bottom line is that massive starvation is much, much closer today than it was in the 30's, and people are much, much better armed. I can see food riots beginning to break out within a year in major US cities and there won't be a thing the government can do except declare martial law and start killing people - there won't be any way to feed them.

How's that for frogs jumping out of Ben Bernanke's mouth?

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 17:59 | 2744738 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

Enter the TSA with their hollow point bullet arsenal in 3, 2, 1......

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 18:29 | 2744822 Lednbrass
Lednbrass's picture

It would take several years of this to actually make food supplies run out and would also require the same thing to happen in Central and South America.

Next year? No, but if two or three more years like this and last year should occur the price of food is going to hit the stratosphere, particularly meat.  It is already certain that there will be a big jump in protein cost in 2013, the only thing keeping prices down at the moment is all the extra slaughtering going on due to increased feed prices.

As far as cosmopolitan humanity having serious trouble on the horizon, there is no way around it. 

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 18:15 | 2744760 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Just wait until the full impact of the new Arctic Ice minimum extent is realized....

Feedback bitchez!

Oh yeah... almost forgot

http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/1-kinnard2011.jpg

40 year MVA

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 18:57 | 2744923 tobus
tobus's picture

I'm curious, I want to know exactly how many bad years of harvests it would take for real famine/food shortages to become a genuine concern in the west.

We're all sitting around calmly discussing it, but how far from real hardship are we?

The arab springs were really extended food price riots.

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 19:00 | 2744928 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

google "world grain stocks" and get back to us....

Tue, 08/28/2012 - 19:39 | 2745059 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Wow, that was an eye opener.

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