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"Due To The Extreme Volatility Some Market Analysts Foresee..."

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Helmet time.

From Oanda

Due to the extreme volatility some market analysts foresee could result in the coming days, OANDA fxTrade will not accept any trading activity from 6:00 AM EST until approximately 3:00 PM EST, on Sunday, June 17, 2012. OANDA believes the convergence of a major market event during off-market hours represents a potential trading risk and has taken this rare step to protect traders from excessive rate fluctuations.

 

Please note that during this halt in trading, you can still access your account details but no trading activity will be accepted. For this reason, OANDA strongly recommends that all traders consider minimizing currency exposures prior to the trading halt.

 

If you do intend to maintain open positions during this period, be aware that OANDA will hold exchange rates steady during the trading halt. However, when trading resumes, rates will immediately adjust to the current market rate and it is possible that the updated rate could result in a margin closeout if the price has moved significantly against your positions.

 

Therefore, it is your responsibility to ensure you have adequate funds in your account to prevent a margin closeout.

 

OANDA apologizes for any inconvenience this may cause.

 

For more information, please contact a Customer Service representative.

 

Best regards,

 

The OANDA team

What do you get when you mix counterparty and agency risk, and throw in some currency collapse fear for good measure? This.

 


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Wed, 06/13/2012 - 21:49 | Link to Comment world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

ha, ha, watch the last 10 or so minutes of Richard Pryor on the Sunset Strip. That mofo went up in flames smoking dat' pipe, bitchez!

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 21:55 | Link to Comment Not For Reuse
Not For Reuse's picture

who the fuck would want to trade FX while the market is CLOSED anyway?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 21:59 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

What they are saying is to have no opEURn positions into the weekend.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:02 | Link to Comment geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

a one-off or the shape of things to come ?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:05 | Link to Comment Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

A one-off? We're on the express elevator to hell...going down!

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:24 | Link to Comment Doña K
Doña K's picture

What if this is a Bernanke's set-up to start QE-XXX and burn shorts and PM's before the meeting?

Stay out of everything mates. You would be guessing one way or another.

Cash $ position ready for action appears to be the safest bet IMHO

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:36 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

What if it turns out to be something other than Euro? Are there any other smouldering fires out there in FX Land that could flair up?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:43 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Yen?

Personally, I say EUR first, JPY second, everything else third, with USD last.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:47 | Link to Comment 3MonthsZHober
3MonthsZHober's picture

You'd be smart to be loooooong the USD. Flight to safety and all.....

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 23:04 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Helmet time? If one is massochistic enough to trade [i.e. gamble on red/black] in the Full Fractional Reserve Central Banking & Planning Casino (some erroneously refer to it, still to this day, as "a market" or "the markets"  -- how quaint) that printus electronica maximus has wrought, you'd best invest in a very sturdy jockstrap & cup.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 01:06 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

When all's said and done, you're trading shite for shite, and leveraging it.

You can lose a fortune doing that...

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 01:10 | Link to Comment A L I E N
A L I E N's picture

They will absolutely deliver a ponzi extention..long euro

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 02:15 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

hence the polling blackout we've seen in Greece so as to make whatever result we are presented with believable...

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 02:16 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Perhaps Greece defaulting and leaving the Euro?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 02:47 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

I think a EU friendly alliance...

and then Germany leaving the euro at a later date....

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 03:18 | Link to Comment lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Watch Greeks suddenly join the Russo-China gold-stacking club.

Russkies and Chinamen replace unwanted saurkrauts in Greece as Tourists.

"NATO Fleeced!"

"Greek Govt proud to announce new port facilities for Russo-China fleet, giant new runways for MiGs. To be paid in GLD."

Piling up cash now for buy on the possible PM dip.

My miners will be OK over the longer haul.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 05:23 | Link to Comment AvoidingTaxation
AvoidingTaxation's picture

BTFD!

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 05:25 | Link to Comment Zeroexperience2010
Zeroexperience2010's picture

I have an account with OANDA but have not received this anouncement, I can't find it on their website either. Where is the source of this?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 05:41 | Link to Comment French Frog
French Frog's picture

Tyler, this is simply Oanda re-aligning itself with the 99.9% of other brokers-for-the-common-man out there.

As far as I know Oanda was the only platform were you could actually open/close positions during the weekend (albeit with an increased spread). The Forex market is not closed as such over the weekend, it is just that there are very few banks open to trade because of the obvious lack of liquidity but if you are within a bank and you want to make a transaction, you can if there is another counterparty willing (open) to do so at that time (that's why the euro/usd price will actually fluctuate on occasions over the weekend before the official re-open (and possible gap up/down on other platforms) on Sunday evening

You make it sound like they are introducing some severe measures because they are expecting higher volatility over the coming weekend(s), when in fact they are just falling in line with all the other brokers in removing the ability to trade on Saturday/Sunday.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 06:04 | Link to Comment Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Why did they say what they said (June 17th) rather than what you said then?  Lost in translation?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 06:39 | Link to Comment Itch
Itch's picture

"You make it sound like they are introducing some severe measures because they are expecting higher volatility over the coming weekend"

Considering they have never done it before in the years i have been with them, including 2007-8, well then yes, it is pretty drastic. Weekend trading was always one of their selling points, they market themselves on this, that's the difference, i.e. other brokers dont advertise themselves as accepting weekend trades. Now, considering that they have taken hits on quite a few weekends recently, last weekend being a standout example, i am not shocked that they are becomming sheepish; it was practically free money for anyone who bought euro on saturday after the spainish bailout and sold at the open on sunday. What is about to potentially kick off in Europe could wipe them out, remember they are a market maker and not a bank....imagine being the only broker that is buying Euros on sunday when the SHTF ???

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment 0z
0z's picture

My futures broker just called to make sure I offset my June Euro position. I understand that first notiice is on monday, but they have never before callled me to remind me of such things.  Coincidence?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 08:36 | Link to Comment Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"When all's said and done, you're trading shite for shite, and leveraging it.

You can lose a fortune doing that..."

A fortune, denominated in.....shite.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 00:19 | Link to Comment sunaJ
sunaJ's picture

Greece plays Russia on June 16th, Euro 2012.  Don't underestimate the importance of their footie ball.  If they win, the Greeks may grow some ouzo-fueled balls and give their "creditors" the finger.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 23:05 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

 

You'd be smart to be loooooong the USD. Flight to safety and all.....

...In rolls of nickles.

And to whoever junked me up there, if you have a better idea, I'm all ears. (crickets...)

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 23:32 | Link to Comment sablya
sablya's picture

Does anyone want to have a discussion of the relative risks, probabilities and rewards of being long various vehicles over the weekend?  I'm considering being long UVXY and would like to discuss whether it is too risky or not.  I don't think anyone uses the forum here, but maybe we can dust off the cobwebs for a day...

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 23:57 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Ok, going into the weekend, if you buy an ounce of gold you will own an ounce of gold.

Coming out of the weekend, regardless of what happens over the weekend you will still own an ounce of gold.

Does that clarify?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 02:38 | Link to Comment laomei
laomei's picture

True... however if instead going into the weekend I buy 10 kilo of cabbage and some salt.  A month later I will own a whole lotta sauerkraut.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 02:46 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

That's good, and if I need some sauerkraut next month I'll have an ounce of gold with which to buy it, and if I don't I'll still have an ounce of gold for when I do.

You may have to make some more sauerkraut though, it doesn't last forever...

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 02:55 | Link to Comment tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

It does at my house.  Still have a jar in the fridge from 40 years ago.

 

By the way, what do you call Merkle when the Greeks refuse austerity?  A sour Kraut.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 08:51 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

but you're not seriously going to eat that, are you?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 02:56 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Yes, but you can't eat... sauerkraut!?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 05:24 | Link to Comment AvoidingTaxation
AvoidingTaxation's picture

I prefer iPad's to sauerkraut!

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 08:09 | Link to Comment monkeys.pick.bottoms
monkeys.pick.bottoms's picture

In know for a fact gold vs food had a terrible rate of exchange in the getto during the war. Why not own both and a lot, I mean a lot of silver as well:)

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 00:14 | Link to Comment Ivanhoe
Ivanhoe's picture

I use UVXY as part of a trading pair and currently hold a long position.  I am inclined to cash out most of the position on Friday, holding on to a small bet things will go south over the weekend mostly because that's the way things SHOULD work out.  However the globalist PTB's have a way of creating contrarians market conditions that screw up what should happen more times than not.  My advise would be to take profits if you have them and get back in first thing next week on whichever side of the trade is moving!  In the meantime UVXY should continue to rise over the next couple of days as folks race to sell risk and help the VIX sky rocket!

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 00:17 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

so you don't think that everyoen else will cash out on Friday as well then, and scupper your plans?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 07:18 | Link to Comment Ivanhoe
Ivanhoe's picture

I'm thinking everyone (with a brain) will cash out hence helping the VIX spike along.  That's why I'm in mostly cash on Fri afternoon and only making a small wager as to market direction.  Gives me something to think about over the weekend!

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 00:30 | Link to Comment CommunityStandard
CommunityStandard's picture

Strong advice.  I even believe the VIX futures went into backwardation today (albeit momentarily), so who knows what can happen.  I'm always surprised by the recent unexplained market rallies, especially after what should be bad news.  Maybe decrease risk and go long the short-term instead of the ultra short-term so you aren't on a leveraged ETF?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 07:21 | Link to Comment Ivanhoe
Ivanhoe's picture

It's a contrarian world engineered by the elites transfering our wealth.  I'm banking on the recent bearish cross of the 100 SMA by the 50 will elicit the desired market react.  Down >100 in the S&P and spike of the VIX over 30 within a week or 2. 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 01:52 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Flight to Dollars is not Gold bullish, not in the short term.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 02:41 | Link to Comment laomei
laomei's picture

The only way it's not bullish is when it's manipulated.  Gold gets jacked up during flights as t-bill rates crash.  The only thing that prevents it from happening is when there is a hammer put down on it to make it look like t-bills are the only option on the table that appears stable for the short term.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 00:52 | Link to Comment azusgm
azusgm's picture

EUR

JPY

USD

CAD

In that order.

But yeah, the yen has a bullseye on it.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 03:25 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

How does the CAD stay aloft if the USD crashes?  And, how does it hold up when China starts to really stumble?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 06:45 | Link to Comment hyperbole2000
hyperbole2000's picture

OIL!!!!

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 01:40 | Link to Comment Flesh Wound
Flesh Wound's picture

Aussie still strong but only while China buys our shit.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:56 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Reading between ALL the fucking lines:

1.)  No open Euro positions (as per above)  and while you're at it,

2.)  Maybe, just maybe if you have a modicum of common sense, be long only your resident currency in which you buy your eggs, pork chops and condoms

3.)  Maybe, just maybe have fuck all noting sitting in said account(s) so as to not get your nuts clamped in another MFG

4.)  Fondle your your maples and morgans whilst watching the US Open, eating spaghetti bolognase and fried chicken on father's day.

5.)  Enjoy life.  Do good things.  Help others.  Be grateful. 

Cash, bonds and bullion, babes

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 00:36 | Link to Comment Bunker Boy
Bunker Boy's picture

Knucles:  well said. Prescient analysis that cuts through the fog of confusion swirling around the bullshit circus currently called financial reporting. I have one issue with your reporting: you should have mentioned fondling your wife/ girl friend while drinking margaritas. Best, Bunker

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 06:51 | Link to Comment spankfish
spankfish's picture

You forgot beer... just sayin'.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:47 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

 

Stay out of everything mates. You would be guessing one way or another.

Cash $ position ready for action appears to be the safest bet IMHO

...You do realize you just said go long the USD, right?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:57 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

If one is to buy when there is blood in the streets, one needs USD in order to buy.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 23:06 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Unless it is the US dollar that is doing the bleeding.

Can we please finally put a stake through the heart of all this "flight to safety in the US dollar" nonsense already?  Everyone with one-sixteenth of a brain knows that ALL fiat currencies are going to crash --- arguing over the exact order of that crash is, to me, akin to debating about exactly how many Bernankes can dance on Paul Krugman's pinhead.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 23:07 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

 

Can we please finally put a stake through the heart of all this "flight to safety in the US dollar" nonsense already?  Everyone with one-sixteenth of a brain knows that ALL fiat currencies are going to crash --- arguing over the exact order of that crash is, to me, akin to debating over exactly how many Bernankes can dance on Paul Krugman's pinhead.

I feel ya...  Would rather this was over so I can get on with something productive.

Trouble is, there's still plenty of muppets to skin alive out there.

Gonna take awhile.  I give it until after the election for this to really get going.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 23:19 | Link to Comment Doña K
Doña K's picture

"You are long the USD"

YES! According to what's been suggested at ZH, the USD will rock while the cognoscenti will be buying cheap European assets after the blow up. 

Then, some of us may have a chance to get into some mini action holding dollars.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 23:26 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Agree.

If there's a "flight to safety" (MASSIVE MARGIN CALL) we could see a repeat of '09.

It will be the last chance to buy AU (and likely AG) at fire-sale prices.

...In USD, anyway.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 07:49 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Consider that the "flight to safety" will happen in conjuction with the next Admin shifting toward a strong-dollar policy. 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 00:06 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Yes, the USD will rock in the bank accounts you can't get it out of because the banks are shut, because they need bailing out of their collapsing Euro assets...

 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 01:03 | Link to Comment Doña K
Doña K's picture

I believe that the US (multinationals-friends of Ben-and the like) under the cover of bailout, will control the collapse in an orderly fashion while buying the better assets. Don't forget, that the USD despite all the negative rhetoric is still the reserve curency and printing extraordinary quantities to buy cheap assets is very easy. Controlling PM ascent may be a bit more difficult.

Think about my poker game story. They have all four aces in their sleeves, they change the rules at will and have unlimited money.

See http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-06-13/fire-set-blaze-focus-banks#comment-2522249 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 02:51 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

don't forget that in order to buy, the dollar has to be available in the right quantities, or the FX goes straight down. this means that the FED has to mop up excessive pools of USD in the world. and for this it needs FX reserves, something it can't print.

go on and let them herd you into the USD corral, it's safe

the situation reminds me how the British bookies stopped accepting bets on the breaking of the Euro

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 06:53 | Link to Comment hyperbole2000
hyperbole2000's picture

When the sovereign credit ratings and their banks fall to junk then the  sovereign loans and bank loans breach covenant ageements and can be called.  Since many are written in US currency there will be a huge shortage of US dollars to cover the call.  Just like in 2007.  CB swap linesd are already mobilized to firehose Europe with US dollars to take the edge of of the spke.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 03:31 | Link to Comment ironymonger
ironymonger's picture

Go long ellipsis!

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 00:06 | Link to Comment brettd
brettd's picture

Mittens will have a shit storm on his hands.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 01:23 | Link to Comment merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

I think Mittens may actually end up with a lot of time on his hands.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment Mad Mad Woman
Mad Mad Woman's picture

I have a feeling it may happen BEFORE the election.  They are trying to keep everything going along as it has been until then. BUT.......it is getting harder for them to maintain this status quo of theirs. There are too many variables that they cannot control anymore. There are not too many happy faces that are appearing before the cameras these days. Have you noticed that?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 03:33 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

I think that the problem is time-frame, and "long," in this day and age of HFT, isn't really all that long, it's just longer than the other crumblers.

I wouldn't do it (I have better things to do than sweat all this shit), but shifting to USD while the EUROSTORM passes (or at least we hit the eye) has some merit.  Don't get me wrong, the USD is just another horse at the glue factory, but unlike the others which are inside the building it's outside in the holding pen (people think that because it's not IN the building that it's safe- when you're in the queue you're in the queue, next?...)

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 02:54 | Link to Comment The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Agreed. This one has too many variables to assign odds. I'll gladly pay for clairvoyance.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 05:20 | Link to Comment daily bread
daily bread's picture

"paying for clairvoyance"

  • 1. Get an economics degree at Harvard or Princeton, that will be around $220K at current tuition.
  • 2. Locate a job at Goldman Sachs or JPM and spend a few years learning the ropes.  Along the way the year-end bonus will probably offset the $ you spent on college tuition.  Develop contacts in the relevant house and senate committees so you know where your "lobbying $" will do the most good.
  • 3. Once you've acquired yourself the necessary mindshare in a few congress-critters, you know which strings to pull to adjust "laws" to your taste.  Now you can "gamble" without fear.
Thu, 06/14/2012 - 03:33 | Link to Comment dexter bland
dexter bland's picture

Intrade are currently suggesting New Democracy will walk it in.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=761483

My plan if that holds: long EUR, SPX, for the post election squeeze (gambling money only). Switch to long USD, short PMs as we start factoring lower odds of QE3. All out before FOMC, which may be more of a crap shoot.

Or something else entirely. The currency markets may prove quite efficient at calling the correct  result and the reward for holding may not justify the risk. EUR deserves to be much lower in the longer term.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 23:41 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

no bucket shop on the fuking planet is gonna be the only place open on greek election day

there will be more rumors than what the hell happened after the prussians showed up at waterloo and saved wellington's bacon

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 00:15 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Just remember that he who counts the votes has the power, and this polling blackout is every indication that the result will be fixed.

So much for Democracy...

and Waterloo was one of the better executed battle plans by the way, with Blucher showing up just in the nick of time. A bit like those John Wayne films when you think about it...

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 01:43 | Link to Comment Assetman
Assetman's picture

Perhaps the results of the Greek election are going to be irrelevant.

What you are seeing out of Greece is an acceleration of capital flight out of the banks and likely out of the country so those Euros the Greek workers have saved are relatively safe. 

Capital flight out of the banks is taking hold in Spain... and increasingly so in Italy.  The process appears to be feeding on itself.  At some point, intervention is one of the few tools left for those in power.  And for the EU, the intervention better be a good one.

The reaction to the Spanish banks "bailout" plan is pretty telling.  There is really no more kicking the can down the road as a viable strategy for the periphery.  The EU is at the "shit or get off the pot" stage-- either force the issue on fiscal and political integration-- or lets start dismantling this Euro experiment.

If the EU decides on a Greek exit of the Euro (and that's really the way the decision is ultimately going to be made), there will be a mountain of capital (and perhaps border) controls put in place-- which will take a great deal of coordination.  Still, it has probably been Plan B for the EU for quite a while.  Massive capital flight is perhaps more of a signal here than the Greek voting booth.  While it might not happen, we're at the stage where "sooner rather than later" makes some sense.  Unfortunately, that isn't Brussels strong suit.

Volatility will spike... but VIX/VXX will be a bad proxy for what is actually happening in Europe.  The markets here are still awash in liquidity.  Derviatives will not likely behave as many will expect, and that might be catastrophic for some out there.  Especially a few of those really levered fianancial institutions that take directional bets in the name of risk management.  Do you know who your counterparty really is?

The Federal Reserve can look pretty good through all this... and nobody should be terribly shocked if Ben and his seriously misguided friends in the FOMC help provide our European friends with as much dollar liquidity as is needed.  It probably will expand the balance sheet here by a few hundred $US billion.  Much rejoicing will ensue from the can kicking exercise.

Will all that happen over this weekend?  Perhaps not.  

But something needs to happen soon, Greek election or not.

 

 

 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 02:24 | Link to Comment John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

Excellent analysis.  My guess is no one will be able to form a stable government in Greece just as in the last election-making the election a non event.  The real issue is bank runs in Spain, Italy and Greece and the fact that Greece will simply run out of cash to pay salaries, pensions etc in a couple of weeks.  Once trust is broken and a bank run begins a panic there's nothing any government or central bank can do about it.  The real issue is that fear is always stronger than greed and its built into our genes via evolution for survival reasons. 

If people are interested in a strongly cultural viewpoint on the cultural reasons for the problems in Greece, read "boomerang" by Michael Lewis.  The amazing thing I got out of the section on Greece was that in all his interviews he could never get one Greek to say anything good about another one.  With that cultural trait, everyone for himself, it anarchy baby!  Panic accordingly.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 02:38 | Link to Comment janus
janus's picture

+1

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 03:41 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

"those Euros the Greek workers have saved are relatively safe"

What IF Germany completely bails on the Euro*?  I'd think that the Euro would be finished.  For now the Greeks would be better off swapping for USDs (or CAD), but this is all like playing hot potato...

* If Italy pukes then it's only a matter of time before France does.  This is a highly probable scenario, which then begs the question as to why the Germans would hold on to the Euro when it's the only country that has any real assets backing it; I mean, why not just revert to your own currency then?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 01:53 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Aliens 2 Hudson.

The clip has high volume. Beware.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 23:08 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Last scream out of the mouths of institutions in the elevator shaft.

 

Basically, gold, silver, oil is the happy happy place to be in.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 23:36 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

...for the long run I agree, but for the short term they may all tank like what happened in '08... I'm going long UVXY and FTP for the very short term - until things settle down again or silver tanks then it's all silver. 

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:04 | Link to Comment SilverTree
SilverTree's picture

Its the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:10 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

fine early REM song

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:16 | Link to Comment brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

Money in the bank? Check
Money and some pm at home? Check
No debts of any kind? Check
Manageable short position on the S&P? Check
Popcorn? Check

My house is in order Feel free to explode at a time of your convinience

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:21 | Link to Comment Ookspay
Ookspay's picture

Good work Lou.

Add one more to your checklist: Get Out Of Brooklyn!

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:25 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

And your money out of the bank.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:38 | Link to Comment brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

Friend, if the money in the bank becomes worthless, whether it's in the bank or at home won't matter much. Whether its shiny or matte wont matter either If such a radical revaluation occur, well all bets are off, cause we"re talking shotgun shells and rice bags - cause you can't eat pm"s

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 23:29 | Link to Comment RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

I think Dr Engali means get your money out of the bank before they lock the doors.  You'll still be OK for awhile as long as there's a greater fool to take your fiat.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 23:42 | Link to Comment brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

River, If they lock the doors, the paper wont matter; hell, the PM's wont matter either. You're talking zombie apocalypse.

America is a consumer society and fiat is tied to people's understanding of their self worth. You shut of the ATM machines and you are stirring up some serious animal spirits ...

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 01:04 | Link to Comment Bunker Boy
Bunker Boy's picture

Fuck the so-called Zombies.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 03:09 | Link to Comment tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

they'll eat yer face while yer doing it.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 03:48 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Out in the rural areas things are a bit different.  People are a bit more self-sufficient; barter never died.

Land, it's what holds your feet up, and puts food in your stomach.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 03:51 | Link to Comment Revert_Back_to_...
Revert_Back_to_1792_Act's picture

..."Our present silver coins won't disappear and they won't even become rarities. We estimate that there are now 12 billion--I repeat, more than 12 billion silver dimes and quarters and half dollars that are now outstanding. We will make another billion before we halt production. And they will be used side-by-side with our new coins"....

..."If anybody has any idea of hoarding our silver coins, let me say this. Treasury has a lot of silver on hand, and it can be, and it will be used to keep the price of silver in line with its value in our present silver coin. There will be no profit in holding them out of circulation for the value of their silver content."...

From

Lyndon B. Johnson - Comments at signing of 1965 Coinage Act

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=27108 -----

Zimbabwe - Gold for Bread video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ubJp6rmUYM

Interesting story about Vietnamese Gold.

http://www.usagold.com/gold/coins/kim-thanh.html

 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 07:58 | Link to Comment BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

Back in 1964, the Treasury did have a lot of silver on hand.  Now, not so much....

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 15:11 | Link to Comment MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

There's war zones all over the world and have been the last 100 years which are shot guns, rice bags and "hookers = barter" and yet... they continued to use money, be it coin or paper (usually another region's paper). So why this time would coin be no good? Gold & silver are light & rare, resist corrosion, while food is bulky & rots and firearms can run out of ammo sometimes faster than you can get reloads (depends).

I'd suggest diversification.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:41 | Link to Comment narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

And your seven M1A 30-round clips loaded and handy.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:51 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Just seven? I keep that many in my bedside table.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 00:01 | Link to Comment Pool Shark
Thu, 06/14/2012 - 04:39 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

[Deleted (by me)]

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 07:56 | Link to Comment BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

Good point.  Time to buy another couple of cases....  good for barter too!

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 23:50 | Link to Comment Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

1) M1A uses magazines, not clips.  There are stripper clips you can use for loading but they only come in 5rd and 10rd varieties.

2) Standard M1A mag is 20rds.  There are some POS 30rd junk mags on the commercial market, which generally won't work once without a malfunction.

3) If you get those POS 30rd mags, each one fully loaded weighs almost 2lbs.  Oh yeah have fun with that.

But hey, thanks for playing!

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 02:23 | Link to Comment AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

If anyone is coming after me, I hope they stop at your house first.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 07:52 | Link to Comment Liposuction
Liposuction's picture

Aw.  Don't confuse the poor mall ninja with actual gun knowledge.  "What I learned on COD" is much more fun for him.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 00:47 | Link to Comment Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

and get some weeeeeed!!!

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:36 | Link to Comment HellFish
HellFish's picture

Why exactly do we care about being debt free?  Either the entire economy goes or the debts are inflated away no?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:42 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

that's Wall Streets plan

...you shouldn't follow the herd they're usually wrong, right?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:42 | Link to Comment brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

Means that if I need to sit back and munch the popcorn, enjoy the spectacle, and work on the great American novel for a year or two, I can.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:45 | Link to Comment Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

Yeah, I keep seeing peoplepost that. It doesn't make sense. If you're expecting your currency to be discounted you theoretically would want to max out all your credit cards and pay them back with trash cash.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 23:00 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

...and what if it doesn't go the way we all think it's going to go? At least gold can be mined, but those fucking paper notes can only be printed or earned. I'd rather not risk being a debt slave. 

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:28 | Link to Comment MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

if prices are way up from inflation then you can't do that trick unless you also get higher wages with inflation. If you have higher savings from gold, silver, etc., due to inflation yes you can pay your debts later having exceeded the compounding interest with the compounding gains. Definitely worth a try but it's a personal choice. Same as those that buy bullion gold or silver on credit to beat the spread, so to speak, of one rate vs another but this again requires later that you sell the bullion for paper which begs the question why one would do that instead of a margin long trade for GLD or SLV or even AGQ, UGL, etc.

 

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:50 | Link to Comment Agent P
Agent P's picture

Provided your sources of income inflate at the same (or better) rate as your costs, then sure.  Otherwise, you'll have less money available to service debt and you can get pinched.  Always better to be debt-free...something I aspire to be, but the wife and kids keep holding me down.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:56 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Or if you've been stacking and prepping you don't need to worry about those rising costs and you can pay off your house with an oz of gold.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 23:01 | Link to Comment Agent P
Agent P's picture

...or just keep selling your hose to the ladies!

Hope you're doing well, brother.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 23:07 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Lol. You have a good memory friend.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 00:32 | Link to Comment grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

Agent has it right. In the late 70s, inflation was going up 1% per month. January - most things cost 1% more, February 1+1%, March 1+1+1...

Your next review and raise is in January. Even if they give you 12% you can't break even because you've already been paying higher prices for a year.

But guess what? Higher inflation lowered unit sales for your business as they raised prices. Heck, they had to layoff 3% of the workforce just to get capacity in line with expenses and still afford to give you an 8% raise.

The only individuals who eventually came out ahead back then locked in their 14% CDs for thirty years, which is why you can't get a 30-yr CD anymore. 

An individual is not likely to benefit from a solution designed to help a bank. Minimizing personal debt is the best way to play the end game.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 04:14 | Link to Comment Western
Western's picture

What if inflation is rising at 8% per day?

Sun, 06/17/2012 - 14:18 | Link to Comment MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

long wheelbarrows?

Made for electrons?

Hm, I think something very bad & different happens

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 00:05 | Link to Comment grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

No. In a currency devaluation, the banks will not be forced to take a hit. When your cash is devalued by 20%, your debt balance will not be adjusted accordingly.

You will be told you are paying the loan back with cheaper dollars, but unless your employer and every other source of income immediately increases payouts to you by 20%, your debt will have been effectively increased.

Individuals need to pay down debt. Any devaluation will lead to selling of items like autos that owners thought they could afford but suddenly discover they can't.

Imagine no change to your job, pay, or loan balances, but suddenly you can't afford everything you could the day before. Food and nearly everything else starts costing more as businesses try to recover part of the devaluation loss they just got hit with.

People will try to sell assets to make up the shortfall or to reduce debt they can no longer pay back with devalued fiat. Sellers will outpace buyers leading to deflation, even though cheaper dollars are chasing assets.

This is why overprinting during periods of heavy debt can lead to deflation instead of the expected inflation. This is why PMs partially or substantially guard against both scenarios. After devaluation, gold, like anything dear, will adjust quickly to cheaper dollars chasing things perceived to hold value.  

An individual who embraces debt in this financial environment is like a casino patron who believes he knows a way to beat the house.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 09:05 | Link to Comment exi1ed0ne
exi1ed0ne's picture

Deflation for the things that can be parted with.
Inflation for the things that are necessary.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 10:15 | Link to Comment andyupnorth
andyupnorth's picture

+1 Insightful.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 04:14 | Link to Comment Seer
Seer's picture

Ah, someone who understands how to properly hedge... Really, why all the fuss over having low-interest debt, I mean, look at what it's doing for the banksters, I'm not seeing them becoming poor or anything.

All things in moderation.  Diversification.  Keep a hedge open for the possibility that one day someone might not be there to collect on the debt.  Since I honor ALL my contracts I continue along with the game as usual, but should there be some sort of mini Jubilee then I'd be able to take advantage of it.  Be ready, however, to close out should the margin call come calling first.

But... whatever allows you to sleep easier...

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 23:22 | Link to Comment Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Lou, you forgot the ouzo.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 23:25 | Link to Comment brooklynlou
brooklynlou's picture

sipping as I type. Plomari over ice with a healthy amount of water. Dried chick peas as snack is tradition, but I much prefer edamame ...

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:10 | Link to Comment Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

It is wise to have no open positions in anything going into the weekend.  I'm expecting a large sell off Friday after lunch in the ESU2, which I plan on taking part in. 

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:14 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Not being a currency expert I'm curious, how much of a move does it take to cause a forced liquidation of a currency position with max leverage?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:18 | Link to Comment RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

Max leverage a 1% move wipes you out 100% loss.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:31 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Thanks all, it's kind of what I thought. The EURUSD goes through that in an hour two or three times per week the lack of stops and the epic changes are what they fear I guess. If it starts at 1.12 on Monday will they be able to find you to collect the money you owe?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:50 | Link to Comment New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Dang, RK, you make a factual statement and get junked without comment.

Pussy Junkstaz'

- Ned

{although I did see a pussy junksta hit Ms. with a no-content post, go figure}

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:19 | Link to Comment Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

Depends on which country your account is in.  You can get the 300 or 500 to 1 offshore accounts in Cyprus or wherever compared to the 50 to 1 here.  I can't remember max leverage in the states, but they limited it not long ago.

 

But a Syrzia victory and Grexit talk could take the Euro into a 2500 pip loss and rip a lot of faces off.   I might sell a micro account into the weekend close just for the hell of it. 

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:27 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Let's just say the Nor'easter coming this way will make 80-100% losses likely for all but the most conservative fx traders (as if that wasn't oxymoronic on its face).

 

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:37 | Link to Comment Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

80 to a 100 percent losses for all but the most conservative?  

 

No.  There are 3 options:  long, short, or sidelines.  Sidelines is going to be option #1 for a lot of traders.  Meaning a sell off into the weekend.  Get your shorts on now.  Longs will BTFD Friday afternood and they will be the minority.  Shorts will buy back their position befor the close or let it ride.

 

I only see the longs with the possibility for mass carnage and they will be in the serious minority. Shorts should be able to cycle in and then out for a gain either way. 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 01:11 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

I was speaking about levered longs only (the subject of the previous post being people facing calls) and pointing out that very few people actually trade FX without being margined to the hilt.

"I only see the longs with the possibility for mass carnage"

So,...vehement agreement then.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:39 | Link to Comment andrewunknown
andrewunknown's picture

Max leverage permitted through a US-based FCM is 50:1, or 2%. To give you an idea, with EUR/USD at 1.2557, maintenance margin on 1 standard lot ($125,570 notional value, $10/pip) would be $2511.  So on Joe Retail's $5k mini account, 249 pips (excluding spread/carry) would trigger a call/liquidation. 

Seen any 250 pip moves or or moves-in-combination lately?  

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:20 | Link to Comment geewhiz190
geewhiz190's picture

probably helps drive DXY back to 90.  EUR. will probably reach  .90 USD by   late summer or sooner. Yen too hard to call.     spx probably has more room to move on the upside-too many bears and trading way too dull.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:29 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There is no way the spx moves up on a " strong dollar " rally.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:57 | Link to Comment jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Bring on the Grease.

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 00:55 | Link to Comment greyghost
greyghost's picture

damn tyler...have you seen the number of read on this post....wowzer

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 02:48 | Link to Comment sid farkas
sid farkas's picture

OANDA will normally let you trade fx on the weekend if you don't mind trading across a 10 pip+ spread.

This is a sensible step to prevent having to get a collections agency to track down some significant portion of their users when EUR/USD opens +/- 300 pips away from it's friday close leaving some customers with likely negative account balances. Consider the set of retail jackasses who otherwise would be betting with the full 50X leverage on EUR/USD, thinking they can exit the trade over the weekend if they are wrong since OANDA will normally allow trading 24/7. 

 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 04:18 | Link to Comment jgauthier33
jgauthier33's picture

Should it matter that much if no leverage is being used?

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 05:40 | Link to Comment chiswickcat
chiswickcat's picture

Or have no USDs going into the w/e. Devaluing the EUR doesn't seem a helpful idea. All the EUR debts are largely EURs owed to other EUR countries. Devaluing will have little impact upon debts. If it is a currency that is to be devalued suspect JPY, USD or even GBP ??? 

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 05:44 | Link to Comment Kopfjager
Kopfjager's picture

"I saw we nuke the place from orbit. It's the only way to be sure."

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 05:44 | Link to Comment Kopfjager
Kopfjager's picture

"I saw we nuke the place from orbit. It's the only way to be sure."

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 21:59 | Link to Comment I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

I'm not worried,,,,,Ben Bernanke said he can control any inflation in 15 minutes bitchez.....

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:21 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
Wed, 06/13/2012 - 23:32 | Link to Comment Ranger4564
Ranger4564's picture

cretan, not certain. no no, sorry, i meant cretin.  ;-)

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:03 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

Long UVXY? Long USD?

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:11 | Link to Comment Marginal Call
Marginal Call's picture

Try long john silver.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:18 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

As in go long silver right before the 2008 crash which took silver down almost 50%? Wouldn't it be better to hold USD  and then buy the dip in silver? I was lucky enough to buy silver in early 2009 when it was $14/oz. I'd like that opportunity again. 

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:20 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

No, even better to just grab a shovel and start randomly digging in the earth --- it only costs $5 to dig silver from the ground, you know, and that shit is everywhere!

;-)

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:26 | Link to Comment TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

akak said:

No, even better to just grab a shovel and start randomly digging in the earth --- it only costs $5 to dig silver from the ground, you know, and that shit is everywhere!

Fucken A! It's a real pain in the ass when you're trying to dig up potatoes and you have to keep sifting out all those chunks of silver.

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:56 | Link to Comment Likstane
Likstane's picture

No shit...and then comes the stackin'   2 hours of stackin' and I gotta take a break..

Thu, 06/14/2012 - 11:41 | Link to Comment margaris
margaris's picture

Zerohedge's comment section is the birthplace of some serious comedy. Again and again.

The last three comments were hilarious.

Thanks.

+1

+1

+1

Wed, 06/13/2012 - 22:22 | Link to Comment RoadKill
RoadKill's picture

VXX for the crash. UPRO, FAZ, PPLT and SLV for the print.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!