This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
"Dumb Money" Refuses To Be The Dumb Money For Yet Another Week
Goldman screams it is a generational buy, Larry Fink goes all in stocks, Notorious BIGGS is 90% long, anchors on comedy-financial fusion channels are channeling the producer in their earpiece and screaming at the teleprompter to "sell bonds and buy stocks", even as stocks are at their highest in nearly 5 years and... what happens? In the latest week, ICI just reported that domestic equity retail funds just saw another $2.9 billion outflow, the 4th consecutive in a row, and the 23 of out 27 outflows during the entire parabolic blow off top phase the market has undergone since October, and instead put another $9 billion in fixed income funds "soaring" yields be damned. What does this mean? Probably that the stock ramp is about to get uber-parabolic for the simple reason that this is the only thing left in the status quo's arsenal - to keep doing the same old same old, hoping for a different outcome, because this time it's different. Only this time the dumb money either doesn't have the cash to burn, or just doesn't want to participate in a rigged, corrupt, centrally-planned market. Whatever the case, the Primary Dealers and the Fed will just have to keep hoping more central banks pull a Bank of Israel and sell the hot grenade axes to them, since Joe Sixpack is done being the "dumb money."
- 18559 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -



Market moving higher on fumes. But it can last a lot longer than we think. And notice the tiny downer on AAPL today. Hmmm.
I'm just waiting for the Fed to be wired directly into the exchanges so they can have complete control of prices and who is allowed to buy/sell.
They already are. Look up who the DTCC is, what their function is and who owns them.
http://www.dtcc.com/about/governance/board.php
http://www.dtcc.com/about/business/customers.php
DTCC's customer base extends to thousands of companies within the global financial services industry. DTCC serves brokers, dealers, institutional investors, banks, trust companies, mutual fund companies, insurance carriers, hedge funds and other financial intermediaries - either directly or through correspondent relationships. Increasingly, DTCC's customers operate both in the U.S. and overseas, where DTCC continues to provide them with services.
In the U.S., DTCC provides critical services to the markets for U.S. Government and mortgage-backed securities, and to all U.S. equity marketplaces, including the New York Stock Exchange, The Nasdaq Stock Market, the American Stock Exchange, and regional U.S. markets, as well as electronic trading and communications networks (ECNs).
???
My profit is locked in because every day I just keep raising the strike price on my APPL STOP order.
Here, here for You. Seems like a great plan. Is your stop low enough to cover the 20 dollar swings? Must be. I might even think of trying it.
My take is this. Commodity stocks are beat up and the hedge funds are still beating on them. Without them. I do not want anything.
Excluding "OIL" the rest are dirt. Even though many are being consumed faster than above ground supplies.
What does Dr. Market have to say about that. We build motors out of aluminum instead of steal. Super Poor for those high heat fuel injected monsters.
Can you say WARP drive or Warped Motor. Almost seems like a plan. When I see basic mineral stocks going down, down, down.
I am not a believer. Even the white metals are failing. And unless there is demand for them vs. above ground supplies. I buy nothing.
Without a good foundation. The market is a farce. If I see the whites go up. I can believe. Without that demand, it's a bull trap.
With this rate of investor participation in th 'market' you could run that system on the old Apple IIe.
Very ironic.
This "Muppet" revolt will not stand. Must be put down. I will set interest rates to -.25. Should work.
- Ben
They are trying to keep the market and economy looking nice until after the elections, and it won't work. This market and the economy wants to burst and go down hard and Obama is afraid of it happening. Just look at what happened to Bush the second, even though it was his second term he couldn't keep what was happening from happening during an election. And Obama is fighting for his life for votes and he needs the market to stay nice.
Can someone answer me - Is AAPL the most massively overbought large cap stock of all time? TIA
I don't think their intelligence has changed much. I just think they are getting old and their liabilities (house price and credit cards) exceed their assets (house) and they are getting older and older.
They just can't be dumb any longer even if they wanted to dumb down.
Bernanke built it; they will come as they must. But for a little while they will remember - will be less dumb.
Could be the setup for epic event.
The market is dead man walking and Dr bernankenstein and his minions have everything under control. How long can this thing maintain - 3 months or 3 years. The problem with Tylers analyses is I think he underestimates thier willingness to trash everything and every one to maintain thier status. Give them what they want 2x.
Until ETF flows are netted into this line of reasoning it will continue to make no sense at all....
From a recent ConvergEx report: nobody appears to like domestic equities very much... Except for Apple of course. But we already know all about the NASDAPPLE.
Vanguard has a lot of state pensions. When that bubble pops, I might expect some shooting to start.
Inflationary deflation
Everything we consume costs more ... every capital asset we own is worth less
Seems like most everyone is waiting for stock market to get crushed-----hurry up already
Joe Six Pack AGAIN...selling into strength and kickin' ass, bitchez!
Wait a minute, "Joe six pack" has money?
Yup. Joe found 35 cents in the washing machine and a couple of quarters under the couch cushions. Living large is back in the land of milk and honey.
Time for bonds and cash until the crash is over with, FED must print then into hard assets. Easy enough.
Me like "dumb money" being smart for once! They sell as the market gets higher because they all sat on loses for so long now and just want to get out! Which is commendable, given valuations and levels of gov intervention...ahm...manipulation!
No one will be sucked in this FEDster induced, slowly dwindeling "liquidity", algos can keep playing ping pong wiht each other and then finally canibalize one another for good, i'll be watching in delight!...AND SHORT THE SHIT OUT OF EVERYTHING MOVING :)))
Great chart, I love how retail can be counted on to be consistently wrong. It's the only business in the world where people do not buy when things are on sale.
Price it however you like, if there are no real buyers (a.k.a. no demand) do it really matter? I don't consider companies buying their own stock or the Fed, or the primary dealers real buyers, do you?
The answer is yes, they are real buyers until the weakest link ends up like Bear Stearns, Lehman and very recently MF Global.
I'm saying Merryll Lynch is the next in line. Let's see.
That is a fair call, where do you see Morgan Stanley? I have always said it won't interesting until all the insiders start eating each other. At some point though you have exponentially more entities/corporation/banks/governments holding exponentially more bad paper promised to each other that has no purchasing power. Do you really think 707 trillion dollars in CDS is real? No fucking way. Once it is decided who is really "in the club" and who is not. All these entities will have to look at each other and say "call it even". If they don't, we get WWIII. Either way, paper burns, period. Same as it ever was, hedge accordingly.
Why do retail investors need to be in this market anymore? The Fed can just set the S&P to whatever they want and we'll all reap the benefits.
Maybe for the short squeeze when the FED tries to buy the last remaining shares on the market that's not yet on their books?
Can't have a short squeeze without shorts. And you can't have a crash if noone's buying at the margins. I guess that means S&P [0,infinity]?
Hey wait I get it, the Fed can trade S&P shares between their NY office and their offshore shell corporations. That's what I call.... an economic circle jerk!
Yes, essentially front running themselves creating exponentially more paper with exponentially less purchasing power. A good gig, if you can get it.
Short interest (aggregate) has been declining, which will make the absence of a retail investor that much more problematic.
It is called capital formation. It matters. Without it, eventually, the wheel falls off the wheelbarrow being used to haul dollars down to the Pigly Wiggly to buy a loaf of bread.
Capital formation? What's that? Isn't that something the government does?
/sarc
We took the concept and rudimentary bases of capital formation out back and put them out of their misery... and then fed them to the pigs...
The mechanisms used to keep the economy afloat run opposite of the forces that create and maintain capital. It's THE governor on the system and ultimately the gravity that the donkeys are fighting against... kind of odd really... sort of like a rocket that has a lot of fuel, gets into the air, but can't really keep up escape velocity... hovering until losing the battle with gravity.
Well, if all the freeloaders would just get off and flap their arms...
Thanks for the chuckle. :D
How do "investors" provide "capital" to corporations by transferring infinitely dilutable currency into infinitely dilutable stock certificates? At this point isn't the only thing that provides capital the willingness of banks to lend?
Laudinum, the drink for investors!
It's just a matter of time before the analysts and Jamie Dimons of the world begin to appear on live television and curse us retail investors, AKA muppets, for not doing our civic duty by buying the garbage they are trying to unload.
Larry Fink made just such an appearance back in October, declaring that through more easy money policies, the Fed should "make them buy equities." I posted about his comment back then, including that the BlowHorn [CNBC] had edited that specific comment out of their replays throughout the day...but no one seemed to care about it. Fink, of course, would later go on to say "people should be 100% in equities", which was followed in less than 24 hours by dislosure that he had sold $35 million dollars woth of BLK stock.
So as to your suggestion, it has already happened.
Take note, Larry Fink is a salesman for his own business. Being the largest holder of equities of any fund manager.
"Rollover"....'ring, ring' ...it's over: @1:42:18
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDWWENGUhO4
Where do ETFs fit into all of this? Are equity ETF's cannibalizing equity mutual funds. Or is it all just going out of equity funds into bonds?
Pretty sure most ETF are just tracking bets run by the banks. They don't really own any equity. From that perspective the are cannibalizing the market for real equities (all of which are actually owned by the Fed through the DTCC... so ALL equities are just a scam anyway because there is no real ownership ... just purchasing the right to be a beneficiary if the Fed decides to continuing to honor those right ... which it has given itself the legal right to cancel at any time with no repercussions ... sound fair?)
Meet the new Ponzi Vigilante! Joe Craftbeer Sixpack.
I can't afford a friggin six-pack!!
The first wave of baby boomers are retiring. An aging population, coupled with the brutal beating that equity investors have experienced the last few years, may be enough to keep the retail investor from entering the equity markets. Regardless, it must be a real quandary for investment advisors whose clients are following the advice they've always received about reducing their "risk" as they age.
It will be interesting to see how they deal with this. Will the algos keep pushing the market higher on this low volume, playing footsie with anyone sitting on the sidelines?
Or will TPTB sell all their shares first and then let the market tumble before the first big wave of Baby Boomer retirement pullouts begin? It would be funny to see the Baby Boomers out there with the OWS folks protesting the corruption.
And yet the market keeps going higher? Go figure.
How can this be a generational buy? Fair value for the S&P 500 is 1200 at best.
True price discovery has not been allowed for 20+ years now.
And perhaps they(Joe Sixpack) know about Goldmans Knife set or reverse psychology
Goldman screams it is a generational buy, Larry Fink goes all in stocks, Notorious BIGGS is 90% long,
Yeah, ok. But what does Jim Cramer think?
\sarc
Fink, thats funny all in !
Biggs.............. nevermind ..................Rofl
Tyler, you make me laugh all the time...Thanks
Im still waiting for the milking to end so I can get more dumb Silver and dumb Gold money,lead for um, sinkers and brass for ummm,...candle holders yea thats right dumb and dumber.
Here hold my beer watch this...see this button ? all I have to do is touch it and Bing the next fiat that stocks will not see is morphed into metal
so easy an imbecile can do it...taste great,more fullfilling
Cheers All
Fool me once, shame on you........ fool me twice , shame on me ...............
"anchors on comedy-financial fusion channels are channeling the producer in their earpiece and screaming at the teleprompter to "sell bonds and buy stocks"
You can see it in their body language and sudden reactions every so often when the narrative isn't bullish enough and someone starts barking in their ear.
Joe Sixpack will ALWAYS be the dumb money...by definition...
I disagree. Joe sixpack will be the dumb money only when he believes that the market is fair, free and honest. Since the stock markets BY DEFINITION are not fair, free and honest, the dumb money becomes those who continue to buy the market with full understanding that they have no chance of ever unloading their shares on a greater fool.
For example: the IPO laddering game is now declared officially dead.
Hate to tell you this but Joe Six Pack is unemployed. All of the Manufacturing Jobs are over seas. He has no Money to put into a Retirement plan.
I really miss the late 90's near panic attack Maria Fartaroma bits on CNBC prior to market open with the loudly building music made me always want to jump in and buy some Lycos and Inktomi and Netscape with both barrels blazing!
Blankfein: The Muppets are revolting!
Dimon: ... and they're not doing what we expected, either.
Dumb money learned a few things. When your hand gets burned, you tend not to stick it back into the fire. No amount of persuasion will thwart you from what you have personally learned to be true to you. Wall St deserves it. They f'ed over people so bad, they aren't returning.
It's one month 'till May anyway and the easy money have been made during the December - February "surprise" rally.
April to September markets are dead, strangely and fortunately coinciding with the 100% focus on the dismal and worldwide economic foundations which contribute to the overall bear validation vis-a-vis realism, until October - November when the "crucial" nth meeting of some political body reaches culmination and after a "final" decision, hordes of liquidity are being pumped into the pipes which levitate risk until the next April, when of course "bear again" comments begin to resurface and sow "doubt", through the bullish delirium of the rally.
And regurgitate.
Plus Goldman's + Barton Biggs calling long should be a compulsory short call - period (.) . Isn't there an ETF for this trade anyway?
QE3 in June after a brutal April/May.
But will the Fed take a break in May?
Low volume is best time to turn the knobs.
It should be FGS
I'm a retail investor, and I'd consider the DOW around 8500. I do think there are a few good value stocks being overlooked right now (e.g. VOD is fairly recession proof, and $26 last week was a decent buy). I also think there are some good long term buys (e.g. natural gas). Gold stocks will get a bump pretty soon, too, so that's a possible trade. 90% of stocks are overpriced when you factor in all variables, so if it's truly just hedge funds buying they're going to be toast when the unemployment checks slowly dry up over the next for months and they come to the realization nobody has a job, and those who do are temps not earning a living wage. April earning season is gonna be ugly.
I must say, I love that VOD at 26.06 purchase---Goldmach Sachs upgrade, thanks fellas.
Finally the muppets sold an up move. Way to go muppets!
Markets=big pile of horseshit and now almost EVERYONE knows it. That's a huge problem for them. You only get fucked in the ass so many times before you realize this just isn't right. No offense to the minorities around here it was the first thing that came to my drunken mind. And no.....that's the answer so don't ask.
Once Apple crashes we're going to have to hear about Facebook for months. Could turn the Nasdaq into another bubble.
After rent, groceries, and gas I have $13.87 left over.
What should I buy ? Ready to go all-in
A one man tent and a chicken.
buy konyobamamerica...or get yourself to a gulag near you
It's all too reminiscent of 1929 on the last leg. Look forward to this October