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Dummies Guide To Europe's Problems

Tyler Durden's picture





 

With Citigroup raising the odds of a Greece exit from the Euro to between 50 and 75% in the next 12-18 months, it is perhaps worth reflecting on just what is holding them back and where Europe goes next. There has been and will continue to be much written on the faulty premise or failed-experiment of the Euro and using George Soros' recent less-than-sanguine discussion (at the INET conference as we noted here) of Europe in general (how did they get here? exactly where are they? and what are the scenarios going forward?) Gordon T Long and John Rubino expand on these thoughts in a must-watch-before-you-hit-the-BTFD-button clip this week.

Starting from the ground up with a brief discussion of the misgivings of the Monetarist and Keynesian schools' perspectives on the possibility of a crisis such as this even occurring, the two gentlemen calmly step through the lead-up to the crisis, debt saturation, and how rather than kick-the-can, central bankers and politicians have brought forward the inevitable endgame (as global balance sheets become more and more unstable).

Focusing specifically on the European problems (a fiscal, banking and balance-of-payments crisis), they address the Maastricht Treaty head on questioning whether the originators were idiots (with no exit plan and an implicit hard-currency regime) or potentially more cunning with the strategy to create a true political union akin to the US - though it seems now that Germany (knee-deep in its own vendor-financing-endgame and inflation concerns as deposits flood to the core) are separating themselves - just as people begin to realize just how un-decoupled the world (US from Europe and Core from Periphery) really is.

If there was a dummies guide to Europe's problems, this is it - plain and simple - and as this weekend's elections perhaps reflect "when you borrow too much money as a nation - you become ungovernable - as there is no painless way out."


The initial introductions and background on the general fiat fiasco with a focus around 5:00 on the debt saturation of the world;

At around 7:40 they start discussions of Soros' recent INET conference speech on the Euro Endgame;

The discussion veers at around 10:00 to specifically address Soros reflexivity (not reflexology) and how that fits with the Austrian school (along with a brief diversion on behavioral economics)

The meat of the discussion starts at around 13:50 where the flaws in the Maastricht Treaty begin their dummies guide to the European problems...

The difficulties of Greece (or any other country) leaving the Euro is addressed at around 18:20 (especially noteworthy given the potentially optimal strategy for Greece of an overnight devaluation back to the Drachma which leads to a massively sub-optimal run on every other peripheral nation pre-emptively)...

As the conversation progresses the interdependence of Europe's nations becomes clearer and clearer and it is not until we get to around 28:40 that the dangers of Hollande's election (which has now occurred) and the Greece austerity-revolt - "when you borrow too much money as a nation you become ungovernable" and the true problem of a break in the political compact that will bring Europe to its knees.

At 32:30 they expand on the potential scenarios for the endgame...expecting a very significant drop in the EURO currency relative to hard assets and other fiat currencies (with less concern over stocks interestingly).

At 34:50 - the prognosis - Economic Stagnation and the EU is unlikely to survive...


 

While we are sure we will hear lots of chatter of decoupling and how small Greece is relative to European GDP, we would hope our recent discussion of this very disingenuous (and always wrong in a world driven by collateral) argument would turn even the most vehement - the US is an island and we're gonna be fine - crisis-deniers.

 


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Mon, 05/07/2012 - 02:52 | Link to Comment Camtender
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Who would have thought?????

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 03:10 | Link to Comment Michael
Michael's picture

And for extra credit watch this;

The house of Rothschild - the Money's prophets - full 56min http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_wkVJcH65s&feature=player_embedded
Mon, 05/07/2012 - 05:13 | Link to Comment The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

Thanks Michael - great link - great info on Rothchilds/Banking/War and our enslavement

History repeats and we the sheeple vow to never learn or remember history

UBS Bets on Toxic Debt Demand After Fed’s Record Sale - Now the banks are buying up, at rock bottom prices, all the real estate that was destroyed by the banks, with ALL the taxpayer bailout dollars.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-07/ubs-bets-on-toxic-debt-demand-a...

In other words, we pay with our money to get fucked up the ass by our banksters

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 03:14 | Link to Comment jmcaule4
jmcaule4's picture

S&P 500 timing system returns 289.81% over the past five years.

http://jmcaule-whatimlookingatrightnow.blogspot.ca/

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 02:54 | Link to Comment Nachdenken
Nachdenken's picture

Whats new Doc ?  The when: 12-18 months is about right only if we exclude Japan and the UK from this narrow Euro forecast. Should the DAX and Euro sink further, the euro perifphery could trigger the dreadeded scenario earlier.  Gold, gardens and for those who need it prayer book time.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 02:55 | Link to Comment Peter K
Peter K's picture

Deniers... where have I heard that word before? :) Oh yea, AlGore and his climate change deniers. O'af with their 'eads ;)

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 03:04 | Link to Comment ivars
ivars's picture

goldpricemodel  has produced an improved DOW prediction chart 2 months ago  based on my latest chart from february 25th, 2012:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/comment/133744#comment-133744

- interestingly, his chart has the first sharp drop NOW while keeping the index between exponential trend lines that marks the reaction of DOW system after sharp shock in the opposite direction. May be his guess is correct?

http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7178/6803255004_53fbd4390a_b.jpg

His comments about his DOW model  here:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/61834461@N02/6803255004/in/photostream

And many more interesting charts here:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/61834461@N02/

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 03:07 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Spanish indust output down -7.3%yoy

Now we await the socialist French dude to start nationalizing dreadfully under-capped French banks.

Horror-show overkill for markets, but they had it coming.   

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 05:58 | Link to Comment falak pema
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for those of you who understand French here is an interesting interview of a Financial big hitter who has a deadly epitaph for Sarko's political Sarcophagus when he analyses Sarkozy's role in EUro play over the last two years, how it failed and what the issues are in the coming years in Eurozone.

G. Ugeux: La contagion de la crise à l'Espagne emporterait la France avec elle

 

World finance is kissing goodbye to a fallen son by giving him a kick in the bum! 

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 03:07 | Link to Comment chump666
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haha credit arigole down 5% on open

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 03:09 | Link to Comment Boeing Boy
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Can someone advise me on the optimal time to purchase a holiday home in France?  My currency is UK sterling.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 05:24 | Link to Comment falak pema
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the earlier the better. Buy in the south where the sun is and...on the spanish side, gulf de lyon area, where real  estate is still cheap. Buy near the A9 autoroute and the sea, and you will get the best of all worlds, admittedly it can be windy, but c'est la vie, and fun if you kite-surf on the lagoons or the sea front! Good cheap local wines. 

The Euro/£ is a head scratcher in current period. 

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 07:35 | Link to Comment Boeing Boy
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Can you see the exchange rate going beyond 1.25?  A lot of Brit home owners are desperate to sell because they think rate euro will only weaken from here.  Do you think real estate wil remain weak?  Not optimal time for me but property is already looking more of a bargain than it has been for many years.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 07:54 | Link to Comment falak pema
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Given the current trend for currency devaluation, I do feel that the showdown between Merkel and Hollande, along with SYntagma burning and Madrid yearing, means the Euro will tank all thru 2012 against £ and $. 

It should go down, I think Ivars here has some ideas on $/euro that he posted below. Paris RE prices will stay high but all other regions in France will suffer from austerity. £ should be good to stay around 1.25, maybe upgrade, as BOE will print more to sustain bank support. But I'm no currency expert.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 08:36 | Link to Comment Boeing Boy
Boeing Boy's picture

Cheers my personal timeframe suits 12-18 months. This all appears to be about both managing decline and relative decline.  Just hope that here in the UK we decline a bit slower than our neighbours across the channel.  

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 05:39 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Should be easy - lots are trying to sell after Sarkozy passed a few new laws...

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 03:12 | Link to Comment the tower
the tower's picture

"there is no painless way out"

 

there is, it's called default... 

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 06:46 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

Default is hardly painless. For most people it may well be the least painfull of all the options (I'm not sure), but to suggest it's painless is nonsense.

There simply are no options out of this mess that do not entail a massive degree of pain. For everyone.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 03:12 | Link to Comment GAILLARD1
GAILLARD1's picture

"when you borrow too much money as a nation - you become ungovernable - as there is no painless way out."

Hey, super moron, did'nt you notice that this debt has been doubled since those countries payed huge amounts of money just to save the rigged financial system.

Come Down !

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 03:15 | Link to Comment OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
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Nations delude themselves in different ways. England deluded itself into thinking it was still a global power even after it went broke after WWI and II, then lost India and the rest of empire. Now a quaint place to visit, with a booming overfed capital teeming with Russian and Arab money, London is something but it's not England. Japan deluded itself into thinking it could rule the Pacific, then they committed national seppuku. They're in the process of committing it again with their borrowing, anti-immigration, and nuclear policies. France has been self-deluding since the 18th century, when yes they did rule the worlds of science, philosophy, art, and trade. But that was a really long time ago, then they cut off Algeria but in their guilt let the Algerians come to France to live. Name one French company (outside of luxury goods) that is a global powerhouse or innovator, you can't.

America's delusions are many. That we're better than everybody else and we should just bomb them if they don't agree with us. That we can borrow to fund consumption forever. That religion deserves a place in 21st Century politics and science. The only politician I know who ISN'T deluded is...you know who. If you're not working for RP, get to it!

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 05:38 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Now a quaint place to visit,

 

If only that were true. It is unbelievably expensive. You are wrong however - London is the centre of the financial system with its huge Offshore Capital Pools. You have no idea how few people live unbelievably well on the basis of servicing huge unregulated pools of  Russian, Chinese, Arab, Japanese, Brazilian, Colombia, US capital in Trusts and anonymous pools of capital..  Do you ever wonder why Britain is the LARGEST foreign investor in the USA ?

Tue, 05/08/2012 - 07:07 | Link to Comment DrunkenMonkey
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"Name one French company (outside of luxury goods) that is a global powerhouse or innovator" -

L'Oreal / Air Liquide / Total / etc.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 03:19 | Link to Comment q99x2
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"when you borrow too much money as a nation - you become ungovernable - as there is no painless way out."

Does this mean we can get rid of Obama? I hope so.


Mon, 05/07/2012 - 03:59 | Link to Comment Change-In-Trend
Mon, 05/07/2012 - 04:17 | Link to Comment murdomcsponge
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Much of the socialists' fury at the banks is not actually against the banks per se, but against the keeping of sovereign accounts! The banks and rating agencies force them very publically (and they particularly don't like that) to keep track of what they spend and borrow, and punishe them if they do too much of either.

Socialists foam at the mouth about private bondholders but fail to recognise that a huge percentage of bondholders are the pension funds, holding the life savings of enormous numbers of ordinary people.

Yes, there are unscrupulous hedge funds, and there are lots of grossly over paid executives, and multi-millionaires and billionaires, but even if you legislated them all away in some manner, the "cream" these entities appear to constitute, is pretty small in comparison to the volume of underlying ordinary milk - and because of too much borrowing and spending, the underlying milk is pretty watery and needs an awful lot of cream to bring it up to reaswonable quality. Stripping these entities of their assets may make socialists feel good - for a while - but isn't going to somehow pay for the debts that years of socialist handouts have generated.

What is ironic it that the USA appears to be going down the socialist handout road, just at a point when it is becoming absolutely clear that socialism is the wrong road to go down, and when keeping books and balancing sovereign income and expenditure are going out of the door.

We have to work out a way that mankind can exist on this planet, but it has to be based on those who can work doing so - under pain of their lives being very difficult if they don't / won't.

Interesting times ahead.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 05:21 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

a huge percentage of bondholders are the pension funds

 

You must be an American to write this. The biggest private Pension Funds are in the USA, UK, Netherlands  - they do not exist as such in France or Germany because State Pensions are much more generous and have very high contribution levels. German Savings are usually in the form of Bond Funds paying a set X% yield which is underwater because of inflation and low interest rates. They are insolvent because of QE and Draghi not because of Hollande. 

Private Pension Funds were destroyed by the Banks and the LTRO experiment on top of TARP and QE. They are irrelevant in Europe today and if they have anything of value they can be nationalised to prop up the banks as the Irish did with their State Pension Fund


Mon, 05/07/2012 - 05:34 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

the socialists' fury at the banks is not actually against the banks per se,

 

Oh no !  Is that the view from Broad Street ?  In Britain households have seen £874 billion wiped off their personal wealth because of Banks - that's $1.4 Trillion for those without access to UK Promissory Notes. That is in addition to the $1.2 Trillion BAILOUT of UK Banks. 

 

But Socialists are not actually against the banks per se......of course not....just as noone really worries in Bhopal about Union Carbide.......just an industrial mishap. People are happy-go-lucky - one day you get  methyl isocyanate and another time your inter-generational wealth and pensions get wiped out and you lose your job and your home.........but it is just one of those things 

there are unscrupulous hedge funds

Name the scrupulous ones.       Oh, and what are they actually "hedging" as opposed to running an Open Speculative Risk ? 

the USA appears to be going down the socialist handout road,

It is called TARP  or Wall Street Outdoor Relief Fund for Bonus Preservation and PAC Funding Party

because of too much borrowing and spending

Go check the accounts of Ireland, UK and Spain PRIOR to the Banker Bust - they were not too bad......certainly fundable and we did have growth.  

I don''t blame France - it is the British and Americans who created this mess with their Crony Capitalism run by Banker Stooges

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 06:21 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

As el Gallinazo put it earlier on ZH:

Obama was a briliant move on the part of the bankstas.  Particularly his half black ethnic heritage.  McCann would have never gotten half this shit through Congress that Obama did.  There are still some well meaning progressives that haven't figured out that he is a fascist crony corporatist in sheep's clothes.  Whichever mainstream candidate one votes for president is irrelevant.  You think the Owners are careless enough not to keep all their bases covered?  Look at the shithead caviar socialists in Europe: G Pap, Blair, Socretes, Zapatero, etc.  All bought and paid for by the Owners. (7/28/11)

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 07:05 | Link to Comment Sandmann
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Obama is a creature of the Pritzkers

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 07:14 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
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Obama was a briliant move on the part of the bankstas. Particularly his half black ethnic heritage. McCann would have never gotten half this shit through Congress that Obama did. There are still some well meaning progressives that haven't figured out that he is a fascist crony corporatist in sheep's clothes.

________________________________

Fantasy.

Well meaning progressives are, just like Obama, US citizens. Obama has been pushing for US citizenism as wished by any other US citizen representative.

Now he might have been more efficient in that because as shown by his presidency, he can only push for constitutional power, that is the part of power that any future elected will inherit and that US citizens representatives are fundamentally interested in increasing.

Obama has exhibited nearly no personal power. Impossible for him to transfer constitutional power to the realm of his personal power: he has none of the latter.

Obama was sort of the perfect US citizen public servant. No personal power, only constitutional power.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 13:44 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

More algebraic coconutistic roadside-shitting baboon-manism from the Chinese Citizenism troll, whose retarded nature is eternal.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 05:11 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

the Banksta cabal is scared shitless by the events in France and Greece.

BAsically what will now be heard across the Euro continent is the populist fed theme: "We don't want the peripherals to bleed to save the skin of Banksta Oligarchy of WS/City. We know that YOU KNOW that we now know, that the TRUE ISSUE is not government debt but private banking debt worldwide. That this Banksta cabal has used SHADOWBANKING pump to export austerity to southern Europe and maintain posperity in Banksta North Europe and WS. We don't buy this anymore."

If the new Statist French government, second largest economy of Eurozone, now becomes proponent of this talk its a HUGE GAME CHANGER. Why??

'Cos as RM has clearly shown us here on ZH, the key banks in EUrozone upto to their necks in PRIVATE debt, totally implicated in CIty led offshore/off balance sheets shenanigans, are the FRENCH banks, aka Paribas/Credit Agricole/Societe Generale/Banque Populaire/AXA-AMA Insurances etc. Amongst the biggest fiat toilet holes in EUrozone and World!

THis huge slice of the Banksta fiat ponzi cabal now have the statist government saying "we won't play ball" like Sarkozy did!

"We are prepared to NAtionalise you if you phukkers along with your Anglo friends continue to pump the shadow banking pump to our detriment. And we will tell that to Merkel, Cameron and Draghi. We have you by the balls if we clamp down on Paribas etc. It will make the whole spider's web of incestuous banskta electronic collusion go viral bigtime."

Mamma Mia, this is serious fellas. If these guys mean that. And we can see how nervous the Banksta cabal is. WHEN A SMALL PEBBLE LIKE GREECE CAN START THE SLIDE FOR THE WHOLE INTERNATIONAL DEBT LEVERAGED SHOOTING MATCH. 

SO now the international Banksta community has to weigh its odds; if the Statist French led faction of Eurozone says : " we want to TOBIN the Bankstas, we want to reign in off balance sheet shadow banking OTC derivative plays in Eurozone. We want to use these taxes to promote Keynesian growth in southern infrastructure in Eurozone." It could change the power balance-predator play of current USD reserve currency hegemony. It will really destroy the momentum of the current "pump and dump" play of Draghi and FED, as it will impoverish the WS/CIty banking shills and we don't know how that could spiral as the banksta fest nest is sooooo dark and murky.

But French statisim is not yet operational. For this strategy to really unfold, Hollande and consorts need to WIN the Legislature in June. Then they will truly be is a position to do some table thumping and International Finance will be buzzing with "WE HAVE A PROBLEM  HOUSTON"...it already is...

Who is the bigger dummy the statist trend of Eurozone or the overleveraged, debt drowned,  Banksta manipulation of Oligarchy markets, only free in name? Charybdis and Scylla...your guess as good as mine. 

There will be blood on the line; fiat collapse blood, Commodity cartel manipulation blood, depressionary economy people's blood, political shills accountability blood. Blood, sweat and tears in first world.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 06:09 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

Great stuff, felak pema. The owners of this corrupted political game keep their bases covered by hand selecting the heads of the opposing teams  -  at the cost of individual liberty. Voters have several candidates, but no choice.

It’s clear, therefore, why the bankers are so concerned about Greece.  Why the default of a little renegade Greek economy would be like the end of the bankers’ world.

 Why is Greece so pivotal to world economics?  It’s because the investment bankers’ dream of combining all central banks into a one-world suprabank with its own currency– with political veto power over every parliament and every elected democratic body – is at stake. Power is at stake!

That’s why the international bankers are so worried about holding Europe together.  A hint at Greek default or pullout destroys the pattern of the IMF takeover through “voluntary” austerity programs by countries that are in economic trouble. Confiscation of Greek infrastructure cannot be done by banker decree if their takeover process is to continue. It must be “voluntary”; it must appear that justice prevailed.

It has to look as if Greece and her Parliament voluntarily by vote agreed to the IMF rules.  And, thereby, the IMF retains legitimacy and the European Union – the bankers’ main concern rather than the money – retains its role on the road to Von Rompuy’s “world governance.”

That’s why the word “contagion” is used to strike fear in the hearts of the equity markets and businesses in the US and Europe, warning that default or EU breakup could lead to huge economic depressions in a domino effect around the world. The “fear journalism” comes from bankers who worry that an exit in the Euro/Union blocks the progress of their world dominance.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 06:23 | Link to Comment lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

I think the average French guy was turned on to ZH by word of mouth, like in a French Underground WW2 way, so after reading here a while they decided to vote super-left and screw the bankers.

"Ze ship is going down, Pierre! Grab what you can from the coffers and then we'll get the bankers!"

"Mais oui!"

In America, nobody will admit they voted for anyone, so they are not responsible, either.

"Dude, it's not my fault, I don't vote. What's that about a glass seagull?

Got any zigzags?"

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 06:39 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

hey, hey, reality is bigger than ZH, the average world citizen, frenchy or greek, knows how to count even if they don't carry clout. Reading ZH confirms what we see on our side, as ZH is at the heart of WS insider details, aka sitting in ROME and telling the world what it looks like from inside; if you have access to info and a critical independent mind. So thank you ZH! Yes! 

But doesn't mean we all don't know how to think and, YES,  we do vote in Europe. That's a collective blessing. Its time you guys woke up on the other side of the pond, as Pax Americana doesn't protect the sheeple out there, only the 1%...

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 07:01 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

"Ze ship is going down, Pierre! Grab what you can from the coffers and then we'll get the bankers!"

_______________________________________

The ship is going down but thanks to US citizens, there is no other ship.

They do not want to go against the bankers but be the ones who will remain on the ship, while the others are cast overboard.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 13:53 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Blind bigotry and arrogant nationalistic twaddle: the hallmark of Chinese Citizenism, whose roadside-shitting and trolling nature is eternal.

Only when China is bombed back into the stone age (where it was, say, 50 years ago), and every last running dog Chinese subhuman is wiped from the face of the earth, can mankind move forward in glorious non-citizenism harmony and progress.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 06:58 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

BAsically what will now be heard across the Euro continent is the populist fed theme: "We don't want the peripherals to bleed to save the skin of Banksta Oligarchy of WS/City. We know that YOU KNOW that we now know, that the TRUE ISSUE is not government debt but private banking debt worldwide. That this Banksta cabal has used SHADOWBANKING pump to export austerity to southern Europe and maintain posperity in Banksta North Europe and WS. We don't buy this anymore."

__________________________________________

Why should anyone in power be scared by that?

It is concentric, with different circles radius.

Most of the US citizens living in Europe belong to the inner circles on a global scale.

Save for the central point, anyone else has a center and a periphery.

Southern Europe is peripherical to Germany but still very central compared to the rest of the world.

There is nothing to fear as all of US citizens share that concentricity. Europe is central and part of the rest of the world is periphery.

Now the fear of contagion to that rest of the world is greater than Europe internal quarrels.

Only sound bites. US citizen elite know too well how it works.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 13:52 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Chinese trolling web-bots are obviously not programmed to write in paragraphs.

Automatic mix-and-match gibberish sentences are clearly much easier to program.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 07:07 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

Frank... serious question, and pardon my ignorance - but how would this "nationalization" strategy (the whole "we want to TOBIN the Bankstas, we want to reign in off balance sheet shadow banking OTC derivative plays in Eurozone. We want to use these taxes to promote Keynesian growth in southern infrastructure in Eurozone" thing) even work? Isn't it predicated on this-or-that sovereign (France, I suppose, in this case) being able to extract enough of "other people's money" to fund their "stimulus" efforts? And is there any reason to believe there is anything close to enough actual money to make that work for more than, say, a fiscal quarter or two?

Or is your suggestion that this won't "work", either - only collapse in a slightly different way?

Frankly, it's probably too early in the morning for me to try to think about this stuff.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 07:32 | Link to Comment eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Somehow I doubt that the banksters are scared shitless. Plan 'B' if in fact it is needed and isn't just plan 'A' vailed is in place and has been plenty long enough for them to cover and profit. If Hollande is the real thing a la our Paul, he'll have an accident, so regrettable, but.... C'est la vie. Look at how hopefull Americans and really the whole world were when Obama got elected, Nobel peace prize and all. Hahahaha.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 04:56 | Link to Comment BobRocket
BobRocket's picture

'With Citigroup raising the odds of a Greece exit from the Euro to between 50 and 75% in the next 12-18 months'

 

I'll take those odds, easy money, No One is Leaving the EZ.

It is the Hotel California for the Leaders and the Roach Motel for the rest of us.

 

Full Fiscal Union followed by an IMF sponsored Debt Jubilee between EZ members, it will be Merkels' last act before she gets voted out next year.

It was always part of the plan, the GFC just allowed them to bring it forward (never let a good crisis go to waste)

 

 

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 05:26 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'Debt Jubilee'

Wishful thinking. Debt jubilees are reserved for bankers from bankers. Private debt not public. Only threats can change this now.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 04:55 | Link to Comment mushi
mushi's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4AXJx3IzdY&feature=player_embedded

it is starting. when the breeding grounds are optimal, they will rise

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 05:18 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

There is a bad habit on these financial blogs of laying out Scenarios for Events and how people may react but then proceeding to use them as Templates for how the main actors MUST go about things procedurally. It is almost like a lawyer discussing how people must go about things to fit his conceptions. In reality EVENTS will take place without regard to the niceties of financial markets or politivians in other countries. Simple Executive Action will take place and do not forget that Greece has an Orthodox Church so does Russia. It would not surprise me if the new Russian President - Vladimir Putin - does not see an opportunity in Greece to assist a fellow Orthodox nation in difficult times and maybe even acquire a naval base

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 05:37 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

You have to stomach a little game theorizing if you're going to hang around these parts.

The Church connection is a weak one, the Mediterranean is a NAto pond, no reason to believe that changes. There will be enough on his agenda to for-go opportunistic ventures like Greece.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 05:41 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

the Mediterranean is a NAto pond,

 

You will have to work very hard to keep NATO afloat with its war crimes record.   Game-theorizing is also navel-gazing a form of intellectual-masturbation. It is for the powerless and clueless to pontificate while the Resolute make facts on the ground.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 05:18 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

Either self-government is to be salvaged from what remains of the private market economy and freedom, or what remains is slavery - with “a single market, a single currency and a single central bank” under a European Union “Ministry of Finance,” as proposed by former ECB  President Jean-Claude Trichet.

The goal of the IMF from its inception has been to create a world currency  --  a prevailing fiat-money banking system that will make world government possible, that will allow central bankers to finance war and gain total world power.

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts writes this week in Disinformation On Every Front (May 5, 2012):

“Americans plugged into the Matrix are programmed to believe that they have correct information provided by a varied and ‘independent media.’ In fact the media is owned by 5 or 6 mega-media companies run by corporate advertising executives and Washington.

“Recently, Bloomberg gave us the report that ‘Japan, Denmark and Switzerland are among the countries to rally this week to [IMF chief] Lagarde’s call for a bigger lending capacity beyond the current $380 billion to shield the world economy against any deepening of Europe’s debt turmoil.’

“This Bloomberg report is nonsensical. The loans are not shielding the world economy. The loans are shielding the private banks from their own mistakes at the expense of the world economy. The Bloomberg report shows how completely the Western media is involved in forcing ordinary peoples to subsidize private bankers. It could not be more clear; yet, there is no embarrassment at Bloomberg for serving as the bankers’ propagandist.

“Indeed, there is only honor. Serving the Matrix is where lie the rewards. Those who oppose the Matrix are the outcasts whose efforts might, as in the film, save the race of humans from the domination of evil, or else, if they lose, confine the outcasts to prosecution and death.”

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=30706

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 07:07 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

What is that story of world government? all people of the world being enfranchised and voting for a global government?

If so,that is certainly not US citizens who will bring it.

US citizens are extorters of the weak, farmers of the poor and as such, will try to keep the extorted and farmed as disorganized as possible.

That certainly not includes a world government franchise.

IMF was more a US of A financial arm on the global stage to siphon wealth from third world countries to US citizen nations. Concentration of wealth.

The US of A has had very little interest in a one world currency. The USD works well. Why go for a substitute right now?

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 05:19 | Link to Comment XXL66
XXL66's picture

fiscal union, there will be massive protest, i think don't think they have to balls to implement this now.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 05:43 | Link to Comment tim73
tim73's picture

Like US is somehow better...GDP per capita is ranging from $174,500 in the District of Columbia to $23,380 in Puerto Rico. Some fiscal union you got there! Californians are paying through nose to other welfare "States" via fedefal budget but their own state budget is a big mess. They would be better off leaving that messy Dollarzone...

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 06:33 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

California is a fiscal basket case with Moonbeam Jerry now weaving the basket. Per US Debt Clock.org, her debt per 37,473,046th citizen is $9,651 with 4,030,029 on food stamps and 1,966,023 unemployed. Her debt is $361,587,166,707; her revenue is $360,340,542,401; her spending $416,052,904,321; her debt to GDP ratio 18.096 – and counting so fast you can’t type the numbers.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/state-debt-clocks/state-of-california-debt-clock.html

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 07:09 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Divergent economic conditions, that show that the issue is elsewhere.

US citizens are duplicitous, they wont tell though.

Mon, 05/07/2012 - 13:47 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Gibberish, nothing but gibberish, and yet more gibberish, piled high on existing mountains of gibberish, all emanating from the autistic and rabidly bigoted Chinese Citizenism troll.

Behold the sound of one brain cell yapping.

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